Released: August 20, 2008
Do Obama's Sinking Poll Numbers Signal History Repeating for Democrats?
By John Zogby

As the Democrats head into their convention, should they be singing the Eurythmics 1985 hit "Here Comes That Sinking Feeling"?

Just as party leaders pack their bags for Denver, our latest Reuters/Zogby poll finds their nominee in some trouble, as Republican John McCain has taken a five-point lead over Barack Obama. That is a 12-point reversal from the survey we took for Reuters in July. Interestingly, Obama's margins among what had been his strongest demographic groups dropped by as much as 12 points. These include Democrats, women, city dwellers and younger voters - those ages 25-34. Also, Obama has lost his lead among the swing Catholic vote, dropping 11 points to McCain over a month.

What is happening is all too familiar to Democrats. McCain is using the Karl Rove playbook, attacking Obama's perceived strengths, notably his mass appeal and freshness. Democrats hoped that eight years of a failed Bush presidency (80% in our latest survey said the nation was on the wrong track) so diminished the GOP brand that "going negative" would not work again for the Republicans.

In the end, it may not. Negative campaigning did not work on either side of the aisle in the primaries and caucuses. However, clearly McCain has been the aggressor for the past month, seeing an opportunity to define Obama for General Election voters before Obama could define himself. At times, it has seemed like he has been the only one throwing any punches, especially with Obama on vacation in Hawaii.

The adulation of European crowds on Obama's overseas trip seems to have helped McCain with conservatives. They distrust Europeans and actually had the opportunity to imagine a liberal Democrat in the role of President - and didn't like the thought. Meanwhile, Obama's attempts at flexibility on issues dear to liberals and young voters (Iraq and FISA) may have dampened their enthusiasm.

Choosing August for a vacation proved inopportune for Obama. August has been cruel to Democrats in the past. That is the month when Jimmy Carter, Mike Dukakis and John Kerry all went down in the polls.

As much as voters may prefer the Democrats on most issues, McCain is winning the contest of defining who has the character and personality that swing voters expect in a President. Obama appeals to the mind. McCain goes for the gut.

McCain's war record and well-established image as a maverick Republican make it tough for Obama to assail McCain the man. Obama's rhetoric this week shows he recognizes that his issues appeal must become more aggressive and emotional. With 48% of our poll respondents citing the economy as the most important issue, Obama is hitting hard at the GOP record on job losses. He clearly has work to do. Our Reuters/Zogby poll released Wednesday shows more voters trust McCain to deal effectively with economic issues.

Obama must convince voters that he is on their side. While it may be difficult to measure, race complicates that task with white voters, especially older people. Some believe that McCain has already injected racial innuendo into the campaign. The non-partisan David Gergen said on ABC: " . . . as a native of the south, I can tell you, when you see this Charlton Heston ad, 'The One,' that's code for, 'he's uppity, he ought to stay in his place.' " Obama partisans also saw race as the subtext of two McCain ads: one that featured Brittany Spears and Paris Hilton, and another that showed several young white women praising Obama.

But when Obama responded to these ads by saying McCain was trying to frighten voters, and adding that he did not look like other Presidents on dollar bills, voters judged Obama negatively and felt he was the one bringing race into the campaign.

It may happen that independent expenditure groups - those so-called "527s" - will raise the racial ante. If they do, Obama may be forced to follow the model set by Jackie Robinson, who ignored taunts in order to succeed as Major League baseball's first African-American.

His vice-presidential pick and the convention now give Obama the opportunity to restore his image as an agent of positive change who would inspire the nation to act. It will be a tall order. But let's not forget - it was the electric Obama speech at the Democratic convention four years ago that got this whole presidential campaign started in the first place.

Since you mentioned "real clear politics", the last assessment of the electoral college, had McCain ahead by 147 electoral votes, and a dead heat in the popularity vote.

Barack Obama 228 183 Solid 45 Leaning

John McCain 174 139 Solid 35 Leaning

Toss Up 136

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

No toss up option.....

Barack Obama 264 John McCain 274

Press Releases › McCain and Republican Party Try to Block Barr From Ballot

August 21, 2008 3

Atlanta, GA - Bob Barr's presidential campaign has recently learned of an action by the McCain campaign and the Pennsylvania Republican Party to have Barr removed from the state's ballot, this despite McCain's promise in the 2000 election that he would, "never consider, ever consider, allowing a supporter of [his] to challenge [his opponent]'s right to be on the ballot in all 50 states.''

In 2000, McCain told reporters, ''Let's not have the kind of Stalinist politics that the state of New York, the Republican Party, has been practicing."

"This move by the McCain campaign completely contradicts everything John McCain stood for in 2000 when his competitors were trying to keep him off the ballot," says Barr. "McCain has become a part of the same corrupted machine he spoke vehemently against only eight years ago."

"This is America, where people have a right to run for office and a right to compete for the chance to lead the people of this nation," Barr continues. "I look forward to the chance to compete fairly against Senator McCain for votes in Pennsylvania and every other state."

In a recent email to supporters, Barr's campaign manager, Russell Verney, stated that McCain's attempt to block Barr from the ballot is one "you might expect of a dictator in North Korea, Libya, China, or Iran." Verney, who also was the campaign manager for Ross Perot, called the plot "a blatantly hypocritical move."

"This move is certainly one of the more brazen attempts to lock me out of the political process," explains Barr. "But it is simply just one more example of how the political establishment desperately clings to their own power instead of empowering the people. The political establishment serves only themselves and not the people of this nation. It is time candidates for the most powerful position in the world compete based on ideas and not dirty politics."

"I challenge Senator McCain to forcefully and publicly instruct his agents to drop the lawsuit," says Barr.


http://www.bobbarr2008.com/press/press-releases/98/
mccain-and-republican-party-try-to-block-barr-from-ballot/

If McCain WASN'T worried, he would not be trying to stop him so forcefully.

Poll: Race for White House tiedStory Highlights
CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll shows Obama and McCain tied at 47 percent

66 percent of Clinton supporters are now backing Obama

54 percent say choosing Biden as running mate is an "excellent" or "good decision"

DENVER, Colorado (CNN) -- It's a dead heat in the race for the White House.
Both John McCain and Barack Obama had the support of 47 percent of people questioned in the CNN poll. The first national poll conducted after Barack Obama publicly named Joe Biden as his running mate suggests that the battle for the presidency between the Illinois senator and John McCain is all tied up.

In a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Sunday night, 47 percent of those questioned are backing Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominees, with an equal amount supporting his Republican opponent, McCain.

"This looks like a step backward for Obama, who had a 51 to 44 percent advantage last month," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Even last week, just before his choice of Joe Biden as his running mate became known, most polls tended to show Obama with a single-digit advantage over McCain."

So what's the difference now?

It may be supporters of Hillary Clinton, who still would prefer the New York senator and former first lady as the Democratic Party's presidential nominee. Watch are Clinton backers on board? »

Sixty-six percent of Clinton supporters -- registered Democrats who want Clinton as the nominee -- are now backing Obama. That's down from 75 percent in the end of June. Twenty-seven percent of them now say they'll support McCain, up from 16 percent in late June.

"The number of Clinton Democrats who say they would vote for McCain has gone up 11 points since June, enough to account for most, although not all, of the support McCain has gained in that time," Holland said.

Clinton and Obama battled throughout the primary season, with Clinton winning more than 40 percent of the delegates. She suspended her bid for the White House and backed Obama in early June, after the end of primary season.

The majority of registered voters, 54 percent, say Obama's choice of Biden, D-Delaware, as his running mate is an "excellent" or "good decision." That number jumps to 73 percent when just asked of registered Democrats. But it drops to 59 percent when narrowed to Clinton supporters. Watch more on the new VP candidate »

"It's not that there's anything wrong with the choice of Joe Biden. A majority rate the Biden selection as excellent or pretty good. Voters think he is qualified to be president, and with the exception of Al Gore in 1992, the public ranks Biden as the most qualified running mate in recent times," Holland said. Watch more on Biden and the road ahead »

"A lot of Americans don't know who he is, but his favorable rating is 13 points higher than his unfavorables. But Biden is not Hillary Clinton, and it's possible that is enough to have moved some of her supporters away from the Democratic ticket, at least temporarily," says Holland. Among all Democrats, only 38 percent say Obama should have selected Clinton as his running mate.

Still, 74 percent of all voters questioned in the survey said Obama's selection of Biden as a running mate won't have any effect on their vote for president.

The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday, with 1,023 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all voters. For registered Democrats, it is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, and for Democrats who still support Clinton for the party's nomination, it is plus or minus 7.5 percentage points.

So, when the polls come out as "even", it almost certainly means that, as of today, McCain would win by 4%-5%. Of course, the poll numbers will go up and down over the next two weeks with the conventions, and so on. Kerry was leading by nearly 10% at this point 4 years ago, for example. Democrats tend to slide, as we get closer to the election. That's been true in every Presidential race going back to Jimmy Carter.