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| What stocks / mutual funds would you buy now?
Posted: 12/7/2008 8:51:33 AM | Tread very, very carefully.
I saw this crash coming, and I've been in cash (or put options) for the last 18 months.
IMHO, It is NOT likely that we've seen a bottom. I won't plow back until I see one of either two things:
1) The 20 week moving average of the S&P 500 crosses the 50 week moving average by at least one percent, or
2) The market makes a new bottom sometime in early 2009, after investors have digested the fact that Obama's adminsitration is powerless to keep home values from falling even further.
Some of the areas I DO like, though, and will target when the time is right, is alt-energy, because its reasonable to believe that Obama will tax-encourage these areas to develop. Solar, Wind. Energy in general I also like, especially coal, because China may be slowing at the moment, but she'll kick into high gear again when other countries eventually step up to the plate to fill the U.S. Consumer void. | |
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| What stocks / mutual funds would you buy now?
Posted: 12/7/2008 5:40:28 PM | Water companies can only increase in value as demand is set to increase exponentially.
Green energy companies (solar panels, windmills etc etc).....but tread wisely, there will be a lot of vultures hovering. | |
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| What stocks / mutual funds would you buy now?
Posted: 12/8/2008 11:47:07 AM | When in doubt buy gold
Right now I'm looking at Canadian financial sector, mostly for the upcoming dividends for my RRSP. V and MA been some good day trading though I do miss my Energy/Oil/Agricultural/Basic Materials/Technology stocks. :-(
Dow 8,924.70 +289.28 (3.35%)
S&P 500 906.55 +30.48 (3.48%)
Nasdaq 1,566.69 +57.38 (3.80%)
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| What stocks / mutual funds would you buy now?
Posted: 12/8/2008 1:03:07 PM |
So, does anyone have some good ideas of stocks or mutual funds that they know will do very well, if and when the market takes off again and regains the losses of the past year?
Overall, I'd still say your best investment would probably be in yourself. I sense a whole new slew of investment and ethics scandals in the future. If you do your research carefully, and invest in a business of your own - the right business - at least you control every aspect of it.
For instance, McDonald's is one of the few companies making more money this year than they did last year, and a big part of it is their dollar menu item sales. Is there something you can do that approaches that type of market in that price range, but will still allow you to quadruple or quintuple your daily cash outlay on top of paying for your time to do it? By that I mean, if you have to put out $150 per day for supplies, can you make $600-750 back, on top of paying yourself (or someone else, but only if you already have a lucrative day job) to stand out there and do it? Part of that $750 has to pay for your initial outlay, part of it has to go back into tomorrow's investment, the balance is pre-tax profit. If so, you'll probably make far, far more money doing that then whereever you would otherwise throw your money.
Imagine a "machine" where for each dollar bill you put in, an average of six minutes later, three to four dollars in profit (plus your original dollar) comes back out. How long would you stand there feeding that machine? Most people are just too clueless to do it. Instead they pay someone else to lose their money for them. Insanity.
Anyone who says they 'know" how well a future investment will be is someone I'd be staying far, far away from. If they're making a commission off that recommendation, then I'd start running the other way. If you feel you have to invest in someone else's enterprise, then look at all likely future scenarios and research to see what industries and companies would be most durable in the most scenarios. That's the best you can do. | |
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| What stocks / mutual funds would you buy now?
Posted: 12/29/2008 12:07:21 AM | .............................................................................................
There are good web sites about trading and investing where you can post messages and ask questions.
I would not listen to any investment advice from anyone, but rather see what is happening and make up your own mind.
My own personal feeling is that the stock market will go to 4000 and maybe 2000, but then maybe it will go up.
Who knows, but it doesn't really matter. Just go with the flow. When the market's going up, trade up, and when it's going down,
trade down. This works for both short term and long. The same goes for individual stocks.
I don't know of any books that are worth the price but there are quite a few free ebooks and articles on the net.
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is a good one. Look up the things you need to know and ask questions.
Limit your risk, cut your losses, practice, start small, and make sure you know what you're doing. | |
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| Would not buy now.
Posted: 12/29/2008 4:55:28 PM | i agree................water is the new gold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
but im keeping my cash save in fed. mny mkt............im not making much right now but at least im not losing anything either | |
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| What stocks / mutual funds would you buy now?
Posted: 1/30/2009 12:51:01 PM | Me personally I have a eye on a few Stocks, but my portfolio will be changing from 80% equities and 20% bonds to 75% bonds paying out a nice yield to 25% equities, and only equities that is paying me a dividend
I look for pay daddy stocks, they have to pay daddy first . | |
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| What stocks / mutual funds would you buy now?
Posted: 1/31/2009 3:45:48 PM | NO money in US markets.
Right now we're on the edge of going to socialism == maybe we will, maybe we won't.
If we do, the stock market definitely WON'T EVER come back to be. I know the Brit's have Socialism and the FTSE, but it never compared to the US markets and capitalism. Even with our recent crash, they are worse off than we are.
Plus, there's been so much talk of "Nationalism" of several types of major US corps off and on in the House Financial Services Committee. And you never know when this might actually happen -- and to which.
Cash is STILL King in the US, for now.
If you want to consider investments in emerging markets -- India has the world's fastest growing economy. But I wouldn't put too many eggs in that basket, either.
I agree with msg 25. And I add that: if US markets do reach bottom soon, they will probably stay near there for some time. | |
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| What stocks / mutual funds would you buy now?
Posted: 1/31/2009 7:48:40 PM | LIQUIDATE and WAIT! Thatz my motto. Of course, there is a lotta BOTTOM FEEDING to be done among STOCKS. And one can always pick those up for PENNIES on the DOLLAR. The companies are SOLID just DEPRESSED. Personal CRASHES. Its a strategy that worked for BUFFET and before him GRAHAM. Kinda CONTRARIAN in nature. GOLD is (still) good. REITS (look closely tho). EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES: companies that are developing unique WEB APPLICATIONS, for example. Keep these on ya radar and be prepared to catch the RUN-UP.
Rite now. CASH is King! | |
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| What stocks / mutual funds would you buy now?
Posted: 1/31/2009 8:04:47 PM | | Some of the Canadian banks are yielding over 6 percent. I have bought Bank of nova scotia and BP in the last few weeks.. both are yielding over 6 percent. The stock market will go up and down over the next year but i will get paid to wait. Buy solid companies with solid dividends and you will do ok if you have a long time horizon. | |
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| What stocks / mutual funds would you buy now?
Posted: 1/31/2009 8:28:25 PM | | Moosey, im not crazy about Scotiabank exposure in the US of A, and some of the toxic assets on its books doesnt excite me, and them offering the pref shares, having said that I do own scotia shares since 1994 and it only has split once and i dont mind the dividend cheques. | |
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| What stocks / mutual funds would you buy now?
Posted: 1/31/2009 10:16:52 PM | | Personally, I stay out of stocks and stick with land investments - usually land syndication with various companies - some taken up to the development stage only and some including full development, with a lot of research prior to commiting to the investment; both with respect to the companies I invest with and with respect to each individual project. | |
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| What stocks / mutual funds would you buy now?
Posted: 1/31/2009 11:54:54 PM | If you are thinking short term, stocks are never a good investment. Long term, look for big multinationals and/or low fee mutual funds that have a decent track record against their peers.
Large, healthy companies aren't going to fold overnight. Companies like Walmart, Exxonmobile, many of the electricity/utilities companies, etc would be decent investments. But that's if you want individual stocks, I would suggest a mutual fund for any investing in the stock market.
Mutual funds invest in many different companies and can be tailored for certain segments of the market, but the risk generally is lower than individual stocks. I would invest in funds tailored to emerging markets like crazy right now if I had the money. Long term that is probably your best option at the current time. | |
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| what stocks would you buy
Posted: 2/1/2009 8:22:00 PM | .............................................................................................
Long term is just today, in the future.
You need to do well in the short term or else forget all about long term.
It's easier to speculate on what's going to happen in the next 15 minutes or next few days than it is a year from now.
IMHO mutual funds are a rip off, also buy and hold is not such a good policy.
If you don't like individual stocks, then a fixed cd at 5% from a local credit union would be better.
My favorite stock is skf. In the last few days it went from 119 to > 140. | |
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| What stocks / mutual funds would you buy now?
Posted: 8/28/2009 11:05:23 AM | Were at a end of a 80 year cycle of boom and bust. With a Fiat money system that has a expanding debt at 2 to 4 Billion dollars a day.
59 Trillion in Entitlement (Medicare, Social Security)
69 Trillion in Debt (300 million USA citizens. So each owes $197,000.00 each)
GDP of entire world is only 65 Trillion 2008 USA GDP was 14.33 Trillion
National Debt is 10 Trillion Dollars plus 1 Trillion more in stimulus these last few months
We the US shore up this Fiat system with a Federal Reserve Bank (4.806 Trillion Dollars) (By adding up all payouts a few congress leaders have proven the true number printed has been 13 Trillion and not the 4.806 Trillion they claim)(By the way the Federal Reserve is no way part of the Fed such as a name Federal Express, It is a independently owned entity created to create money out of thin air and we pay as tax payers pay interest to it. To give the "out of thin air" process a external value.) The Federal Reserve is the" Lender of last resort" to our Federal Govt. so that the US govt always has a buyer for its debt. Most of time in the past we have sold our debt to:
as of Jan 2009: Top 15
China( 739.6 Billion ,Hong Kong add (71.7Billion) Japan (634.8 Billion) Brazil (127 Billion) Russia (119.6 Billion) UK (124.2 Billion) Luxemburg (87.2 Billion) Oil Exporters (186.3 Billion), Caribbean Banking Centers (176.6 Billion) Pension Funds (456.4 Billion) State and Local Govts (516.9 Billion) Mutual Funds (769.1 Billion) Insurance companies (126.4 Billion) Brokers,Trust Banks (413.2 Billion sept 08)
note:
Russia increased its stake by 330% in that last 12 months (was only 35.2 Billion in Jan 2008)
(Am I the only one who wanders why the entire Russian navy fleet is on both of our US coast in the last few months) maybe to create fear to run oil prices up or the petroeuro issue???)
China increased it stake also was only (492.6 Billion a year before) now 739.6 Billion With the statement what choice do we have? We must protect our investments. In the last few month now state they are done with our reckless spending and they will not buy anymore of our Treasury Bonds.
UK use to be 279 Billion in Summer of 2008 thus pulling out by 55 Billion
Brazil was 127 Billion and now 133.5 Billion
Oil Exporters: Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain , Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qartar, Sadia Arabia, The Arab emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria was 140.8 Billion a year earlier and now 186.3 Billion
Then we have what is called the Petrodollar system: OPEC agreements made by Henry Kissinger during the Nixon years that created the Petrodollar system that made all countries trade and price oil in US currency and thus our world value of the dollar is based on this Petrodollar system and not GDP regardless of what they tell you. In those years the 7 largest oil companies (called the seven sisters) that controlled the oil production where USA and British companies.
Standard Oil (Mobil Exxon)
Royal Dutch Shell
Anglo Persian Oil (BP-AMACO)
Standard Oil Co of NY. (SOCONY) now (Mobil Exxon)
Standard Oil of Cal. (SOCAL) now Chevron Texaco
Gulf Oil now BP
Texaco now merged with Chevron in 2001
These 7 companies now only produce 10% of the oil and gas and only control 3% of the worlds reserve supply today. The new top 7 are mostly Middle East, Asian and Russian control. and the next 40 years will be from oil suppliers from developing countries and the middle east dependent on OPEC
Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia)
Gazprom (Russia)
CNPC (China)
NIOC (Iran)
Petrobras (Brazil)
Petronas (Malaysia)
The world oil production is 31.4 Billion Barrels a year America consumes 25% of it annually.
Each USA citizen uses 25 Barrels of oil each year. x 300 million citizens
Currently Each Person in China uses 2 Barrels of oil each year 1.3 Billion citizens. If future children of China (320 million under the age of 14) begin to consume like we in the USA do? That equals to 32.5 Billion Barrels of oil a year... We will need 5 earths production to cover the consumption of the world??
The Iraq war was due to Saddam Hussein selling his oil reserve rights to China and Russia and all sold and based in Euros. We invaded within days of this contract. We let the whole country of Iraq loot itself to the bone except for the building that controlled the oil exchange. (any US senator will say we did not invade for oil)(because the truth was to uphold the Petrodollar system) After the evasion the Iraq oil pricing and exchange was returned to US dollar system within days.
Currently Venezuela (OPEC country) is in the process of switching to the PertoEuro pricing and selling in the Euro and the rest of OPEC will follow shortly after. When this happens the US dollar will contract (pull in and trade to other currencies) from the world and no longer be a basis as a world reserve currency.
To cover the money trail in March 26, 2006 The Federal Reserve ceased the reporting of the M3 Money supply numbers "lack of transparency" to hide our systems short falls coming today.
There is 755 Billion US dollars in circulation as of June 2007 (America owes foreign creditors 3x the total amount of US currency in circulation)
President Nixon took us off the gold standard in 1972 to cover the cost of the Vietnam war and other issues (Our debt owned by other countries lost faith in us just as they will today and they began to pullout their investments in Gold backed US Treasury bonds at the Gold window) and we have been creating a failed system ever since. Growth based on debt. Both in the Fed spending and the banking system (marginal banking system, also creating money from thin air) You deposit 10,000.00 into a savings account and they show it as a asset on their books but lend out 9,000.00 of it in a loan and put that loan down as a asset too. and so on! all backed up by a FDIC system.
Bank Failures
3 in 2007
25 in 2008
40 in 2009 as of June 19
Then there is the dot.com bust and the tech bust and then after 9/11 the easy money and housing super bust. created by a almost ridiculous system of taking a mortgage within days and selling it as a bond and then into a security and then A,AA, AAA security that was sold to the rest of the countries.(and sold to them as rock solid investments) People we bankrupted not only ourselves but many other countries too with this junk. This is why we had a 700 billion bail out that included assets in other countries. They were threatening to pull out their debt we owe them.
10 Trillion dollars in recovery packages
JP Morgan thu Fed bailed out Bears Stern 30 billion
85 Billion to AIG
125 Billion to 10 banks to shore up bank lending.
350 Billion has been spent as of Obama
Oh, did I forget to tell you that President Reagan to stop the runaway inflation in 1983 (created by President Jimmy Carter and President Ford ) did away with the Sherman Act (choose to ignore) and allowed foreign corporations to absorb US companies that began the decline of our Industrial base since that time . And began the start of manufacturing companies and jobs moving out of this country at a high rate to get us where we are today. The great 1929 depression unemployment numbers did not hit the 25% figure till 4 years into it. we are at 18% (adjusted to the same U1,U2,U3 sampling used in 1935) and we are just one year into this so called recession.
I use to buy bankrupt company assets after 9/11 at auctions... I get no less than 200 auction cards a week in the mail for big big name companies who have closed down operations here in the USA.
By the way the stock market is currently up to 9200 is a fools run. It will go as high as 10,300 and then it is predicted to be as low as 2500 (3800) by 2010 .... As they tell you your missing the run up they will be selling out and converting to Euros or some safe currency.
Oboma is spending too much and making our creditors position them self's to pull out. And when they do the Euro system will crush the USA and you think things are bad now.
The attempt to revamp the entitlements (Heath Care System) is required for the Medicaid system not to be bankrupt by 2012 break even (2018 Bankrupt) . The other countries do not want to buy any more of our debt. And we will be lucky if they do not request their money back within the next year or so..................................
Thus Run away inflation (like that of Germany after WWII)
As high as 50% unemployment
Runaway interest rates (by US trying to bring back foreign investors to our failing system)
Oil and Commodity Peaks late 2009 triggering the next stock crash 2009-2010
Dow will go as low as 3800
All assets: Stocks, Commodities, and real estate will have a big DEFLATE
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War with other nations due to our default of our loans or they request to be paid in gold.
Major increases in taxes on the affluent and on business (tax revenues will fall 20-30%)
Failing loans will contract money supply (GDP will drop 20%)
The Threat of the destruction of the US dollar if foreign govts and investors who hold the US dept loose faith in our US policies and fail to continue to by US Treasury Bonds or worse sell them!!!
Asian stocks will also crash by 2010
Social Security is Solvent till 2040 but will fall below cost by 2017 This number does not figure in mass layoffs and unemployment that is hitting us now. (And they have already used the money for SS on past goverment expences. :Thus NO Social Security was saved away for you!!! It was all spent and relies on future income from workers who are working!!!)
(Sorry for sloppiness and probably some misspellings I wrote in a haste but feel the basics need to be heard, data is from CNBC website, and 3 current released books :
I.O.U.S.A by Addison Wiggin and Kate Inconterea has interviews with Alice Rivlin, WIlliam Bonner, Robert Rubin, Peter G. Peterson, Ron Paul, Paul A. Volcker, Dr. Alan Greenspan, Warren Buffett, James Areddy , Paul O'Neaill, Arthur Laffer, Steve Forbes
Bankruptcy of our Nation by Jerry Robinson
The Great Depression Ahead by Harry S. Dent Jr | |
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| What stocks / mutual funds would you buy now?
Posted: 8/28/2009 6:46:50 PM | are there any free websites you know of that make valid, decent recommendations?
Most of those sites will base predictions on past performance, which, in this economic period, makes no sense at all. Other sites are "sponsored," or at least heavily swayed by the commissions that are earned selling specific types of securities. Caveat Emptor.
Economic turn-arounds -- in the health sector industry, education and educational products -- good bets.
Soon to be great bets -- real estate, yes, real estate, FIRE -- Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate, in about half a year, when the Adjusted Rate Mortgages run their cycle.
The retail sector -- seasonal products -- do research on major strategic initiatives, for example, on such mundane products as soft drinks and beer. A $50,000 investment in Hansen Products, for example, in February of 2005 (I believe that was the right year), with Hansen introducing "Monster" Energy Drink. Stock selling at about $14 1'/2 in February -- by May it was close to $46 a share. You do the math on a $50,000 investment -- this analysis was done by a class of 60 juniors in a class on strategic management. It was done, not with a focus on "stock recommendation" by the so called "experts," but rather, doing a company by company analysis on products to be introduced, "timing" of the product, expected demand for the product (no matter how bad the economy is, folks are excited by new soft drinks and beer in Spring/Summer. The "data" are from yearly reports, quarterly reports, 8K announcements, marketing reports, etc., most available online, and fairly good knowledge of the industry sector. And, most of it is common sense.
For example, as the economy was going South, why not invest in companies like Tractor Supply, Auto Zone, Pep Boys, etc -- folks facing tighter economic times will invest in maintaining gear rather than buying new stuff -- common sense which is ignored by individuals impressed by the "projections" of the "experts," many of whom were involved in the very financial fiascos that got us into our current dilemma.
Final Analysis:
If you are currently relying on Investment Experts to make decisions for you on your investment accounts (including retirement), I would be allocating, at most, 30% of your account, at most, to securities, and making sure that there was a heavier emphasis on bonds, gov't secuities rather than industrial stock. Indexing, mutual fund investment, etc., done by the heavy investors, has led, over the years, to a 20 to 30% loss in the value of your accounts overall. Doesn't sound like much until you consider that some folks, especially older workers, had $1,000,000 or more in their accounts, counting on that money to get them through their retirement.
IF you believe that "now" is the time to invest in stock, I would be doing it on a company by company basis, rather than industry sector. There is one life insurance company that, this Spring, was netting 10% returns, even in this economy (yep, it's a smaller one with the same name as a past president). There's still some companies out there that know what they're doing, but, again, it's company by company investing in securities, not industry sector. For right now, most of my money is in guaranteed funds -- it's not netting much, but I'm not losing any money either. | |
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