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wudger
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Joined: 12/20/2007
Msg: 52 | |
| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/26/2009 11:07:24 AM |
well it might feel good to say that but the economic history of the country certainly doesn't bear it out.
long before there was a Fed or central bank we had the boom and bust cycles.
Panic of 1819
Panic of 1837
Panic of 1869 (a particularly brutal crash so bad it is the beginning of the term Black Friday)
Panic of 1873
Panic of 1882
Panic of 1884
Panic of 1901
Panic of 1907 | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/26/2009 11:26:25 AM | >>The Panic of 1907, also known as the 1907 Bankers' Panic, was a financial crisis that occurred in the United States when the New York Stock Exchange fell close to 50% from its peak the previous year. Panic occurred, as this was during a time of economic recession, and there were numerous runs on banks and trust companies. The 1907 panic eventually spread throughout the nation when many state and local banks and businesses entered into bankruptcy. Primary causes of the run include a retraction of market liquidity by a number of New York City banks and a loss of confidence among depositors. >The Panic of 1884 was a short-lived small economic downturn. Gold reserves of Europe were depleted and the New York City national banks, with tacit approval of the U.S.Treasury Department halted investments in the rest of the United States and called in outstanding loans. A larger crisis was averted when New York Clearing House bailed out banks in risk of failure. Nevertheless, the investment firm Grant & Ward, Marine Bank of New York, and Penn Bank of Pittsburgh along with more than 10,000 small firms failed. >>The Panic of 1819 was the first major financial crisis in the United States, which occurred during the so-called "Era of Good Feelings". The new nation faced a depression in the late 1780s (which led directly to the establishment of the dollar and, perhaps indirectly, to the calls for a Constitutional Convention), and another severe economic downturn in the late 1790s following the Panic of 1797. In those earlier crises, however, the primary cause of economic turmoil originated in the broader Atlantic economy.[1] In contrast, the causes of the Panic of 1819 largely originated within the U.S. economy. The resulting crisis caused widespread foreclosures, bank failures, unemployment, and a slump in agriculture and manufacturing. It marked the end of the economic expansion that had followed the War of 1812.<<<
kinda blows a hole in that notion, | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/26/2009 12:38:25 PM | So booms and bust are normal and will continue to happen in one form or another indefinably. So what to do is the real question.
Here is my way to make more money in the 401K, this actually works and it is what I do. In fact I will 100% guarantee you will make extra money in your 401K if you do this.
http://comguy.org/stocks/BXM.png
http://comguy.org/stocks/SPX.png
Two charts here BXM the buy write index, it is the theoretical returns on the S&P 500 on a covered call strategy. This is a little less choppy as you have some downside protecting because of the covered call but a sharp drop after a certain point.
And the SPX, that is S&P 500 index.
Nothing special here.
Another big clue was the NYSE shares unchanging index.
http://comguy.org/stocks/uncn.png
I think a blind squirrel could figure this one out.
The line in the bottom is a modified SMA (simple moving average)
You could do it on yahoo less the colors or how I did it in Think or Swim for free. I did it with a script in Think or Swim but you have to pay Thinkscripter beer money for it.
No big deal and anyone can do this.
What to do to make extra cash.
Look at the grey line, when the line is grey you stay in your favorite fund that is doing well. Most plans have a small basket of funds to choose from.
You have three basic choices,
Cash that is a money market
Bonds
Or a fund that is based on stocks known as mutual funds
The best choice is almost always some mutual fund.
You can track them in excel here is a site that has a ton of free excel spreadsheets
http://www.gummy-stu.../Yahoo-data.htm
I have been using Stock Finder just to save time but it is not free.
http://comguy.org/stocks/heartford.png
I been half in FTCHX and EDC since March 2009
The line on the chart has three colors Grey, Yellow and Green.
The yellow is caution be aware and the green line means out of mutual funds and go into cash. Add as much extra cash to your account as possible.
The trick is when the market is going down you are adding in more cash.
401k's have a maximum yearly allocation of 16,500 dollars. And a higher catch up after a certain age, you can to look that up if you need to.
Not all plans will allow you to do this but what I did is when the market was going down I was putting in my whole check into my account.
That is correct 100% of my check. By March of 2009 I was near at my maximum for the year. Of coarse opportunities like this do not come around often.
Unfortunately many people do the opposite. They pull out of the market and stop there contributions.
By doing this they effectively compound there losses. You see they trade out at near maximum loss and do not trade back in until the market has rallied for some time. Many still have not got back in, in fact a few minutes ago I just read a post where a girl still though the stock market was falling. They would have been better off just leaving it alone. I saw several people make this big money loosing mistake. When I when to the finance dept at my work to adjust my contributions she assumed I was going to stop my contributions like everyone else was doing. When I told her what I wanted to do it took her a minute to grasp it. Nobody was upping there contributions.
Another thing about upping your contributions to as much as you can stand is you will be keeping a close eye on the market and trade back in so you can lower your contributions to normal again. | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/26/2009 2:30:06 PM | Booms and busts are not "normal," though we've come to accept them as such.
The Fed has caused every boom and bust since its inception.
The Fed is a banking cartel that operates in almost total secrecy. (This is why there is currently a huge movement to audit the Fed.)
The Fed distorts the economy by pushing interest rates lower than they would be if left to a free market economy. The lower interest rates cause a misallocation of resources into the wrong areas of production(for instance, housing) causing an asset bubble, which then crashes, leaving us much worse off than we were before.
The founding fathers did NOT want a central bank! They specifically did NOT want a central bank to get its claws into the new country, and they fought hard to keep the central bankers OUT.
In 1913, the banking cartel bought some politicians and wrote their own legislation into effect, creating the Federal Reserve (which is not federal, and has no reserves)
The Fed causes our leadership to grow arrogant, getting us into wars around the globe, because the Fed can simply print money to fund the war efforts. If the government had to TAX the populace to fund wars, there would be less incentive to start wars.
The Fed inflates the currency, causing prices to rise continuously, debasing the currency. Inflation acts as a hidden tax.
As long as the Fed runs the economy, there cannot be any real change in this country. | |
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wudger
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Joined: 12/20/2007
Msg: 56 | |
| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/26/2009 3:13:45 PM | that post completely avoids the fact that there obviously were plenty of booms and busts before the Fed, which sort of shoots the "the Fed causes crashes" gudge in the ass.
and you should read up on life before the Fed. indeed in early US history there was no central bank on a regular basis (though the Second Bank of the US came pretty close). however there were thousands of small banks who all printed their own money, which in many cases was completely worthless and fluctuated wildly where it was worth much.
I heartily agree that the FED should be audited and applaud the move to make it so. (kudos to Ron Paul for this)
however the idea that a central bank is not key to international commerce or successful domestic economy is laughable. | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/26/2009 4:18:18 PM | well I'll only agree the the FED is one more huge tree to avoid hitting on a downhill run that wasn't there before.
without get into the meaning of a "thousand points of light" ~
Life ebbs and tides, the only way to avoid this, ~ this ? rubber band effect is take the human factor out of money. I don't know how that might be possible, I'll say it can't .
Peeks and valley is the norm, what we can do, is only attempt to manage it. That's what everyone is attempting to do. Balance, average it out, shave the peeks and fill in the valleys.
When we have 325 million people to work with ~ take a 100 million that is thinking the same thing at the same time and out of that 50 million decides to react. This reaction shows up.
I'll only say , there's a time to get in and time to get out, bringing forward everything you can muster and making the call.
Dance | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/26/2009 6:13:52 PM | The other obvious problem with the Fed, besides the fact that it blows bubbles, is that it creates what's known as "moral hazard." The scum on Wall St. made trillions as the bubble expanded....then when the bubble popped, the Fed stepped in with bailouts and gace away trillions of our taxpayer dollars. So, the **stards on Wall St. got paid twice! They can't lose. The Fed socializes the losses!
This creates moral hazard; Wall St. has no reason to behave in a responsible manner, because the co**suckers KNOW that the Fed will bail them out if they fu** up. And fu**up they do on a regular scale.
Having the bankers in charge of the money supply would be like having the prisons run by the convicts. And yet, we allow this insanity to go on!
But people are slowly starting to wake up and see what's going on. Everybody knows that something isn't quite right, that it doesn't make sense that the people who caused our economic meltdown are the very ones who've been rewarded. Common sense tells you that this ain't right.
I have a feeling that an audit of the Fed will mean the end of the Fed, or at the very least a curtailing of it's gargantuan powers.
Some dimwit said that Obama regards these guys in a "fatherly way." I damn near fell of my chair laughing! NO, Obama regards these money guys the same way that a crack ho regards her pimp...gives him/her their reason for living. Without that money spigot turned on full blast Obama NEVER would have gotten in. And the reason he isn't going after the a**holes on Wall St. is because he's thinking about those dollars for his second term.
Funny, I just left the beach and overheard a conversation about Obama, went like this:
Guy: "He hasn't done a thing about Wall St."
Girl: "He's one of them."
That pretty well sums it up. | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/26/2009 8:21:29 PM | OP
Without reading the posts to this thread, I would predict the following:
America realizes that it must be a "citizen" of the world, and open its eyes and ears to all sections of the world, not just those that, for whatever reason, have managed to, ah, get the money to bankroll strong lobbying groups, yes, like Israel. If Israel truly believes in preventing things like the Holocaust, they will have the same concerns for all citizens of the world, not just themselves.
America realizes that discrimination is wrong, and moves on, and enjoys the resulting product of increased motivation to "pursuit of happiness" from EVERY citizen.
America realizes that, as one of several models, of true democracy, it must set the pace for democracy, instead of paying heed to lobbying efforts by certain industries for control of, for example, oil, lumber, etc -- "free market" capitalism and special interests must not be confused with "democracy."
America realizes that our environment is precious. The moon and the sky are too far to be harmed by some of the practices that we are engaging in. But our Redwood forests, our precious mustangs, our Longhorns, our Armadillos, they yearn for recognition beyond just being icons or symbols for the football team.
Peace and Good, Brotherhood, "Crystal Blue Persuasion." On that day, I can kiss my little girl goodbye on her way to school, her backpack full of goodies, have morning coffee with my soulmate, not worrying about a thing except what ol Regis is up to, and just live. It can happen. | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/26/2009 9:00:33 PM | Funny you mention AIPAC, the strongest lobby of them ALL.
Tough to tread into these waters sir, without that old canard of antisemitism rearing its head. You may not criticize AIPAC and/or Israel. No politician would ever criticize them, at least not publicly.
There is no doubt that Israel wields great control over our foreign policy, that we do things for Israel that are against our own best interests. Like Iraq, for instance. Saddam was no threat to us, but he was a direct threat to Israel.
We might even wind up in Iran before it's over with, although I sure hope that it can be avoided, since the dollar is already in the crapper. Too bad we can't just send one very good Army Ranger in there with a good rifle... | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/27/2009 11:46:53 AM | 
Yep, I know the peril all too well. First amendment rights .... But here I refer to policy, not to my perceptions of Israelis or Jews. We have every right to criticize policy. Take for example, the heated debate about health care. We can have "proper" intellectual debate on the pros and cons of this issue without having to delve into the area of "stereotyping" proponents on either side. In this instance, let not the Insurance Lobbying Group or the Pharmaceutical Companies lead the discussion -- give all sides an equal voice. The same with immigration reform, religious freedom, President Bush versus President Obama proponents, the list goes on. The "policy issue" should carry the day, not the stereotyping or labeling, or the $$ put on the table by lobbying groups.
During WWII, American Japanese were detained and held in prisoner camps, that was simply wrong and it happened because of confusing racism and prejudice with policy. As I think more about it, the whole 'policy" was about prejudice, because, taken at the individual level, Americans had nothing to do with what was going on in their country of origin, including Japanese Americans -- the "policy" of detaining was itself built on prejudice. And it should have been seen as such. We should keep this in mind as we are "tempted" to cast all American Muslims as pro terrorism. I'm not saying that we should not go after actual terrorists here, either.
On the question of siding with Israel on SOME issues. American interests SHOULD be upheld wherever they occur. My point is that they should be upheld on the basis of discussion on the ISSUE, not at the behest of INTEREST GROUP/LOBBYING inequity. If the Palestinians had remarkable lobbying power, and I were advocating for caution in letting their lobbying power overly sway policy, I would certainly run the peril of being cast as anti-Palestinian. Either way you go, you run the peril in urging caution on POLICY issues. So be it.
My point is, let the lobbying groups have a voice, as they are allowed to have, but pay heed to other facets of the issue, and rule on the basis of fairness and equity, not $$. The same goes for ALL issues where lobbying has held $$ in front of politicians' faces. | |
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wudger
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Joined: 12/20/2007
Msg: 62 | |
| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/27/2009 12:22:48 PM | so how about the "the Fed causes the the boom and bust cycle"? are we going to see any explanation of the fact that we had plenty of them before the advent of either the Fed or Wall St. or just conveniently let that slip under the rug? damn, those pesky facts sure do screw up the way you'd like it to be.
and I love the "obama is in wall st.'s pocket" stuff. Big Biz elects the party of deregulation to the presidency for eight years in the person of George Bush, runs the country and the economy into the ground leaving us with a colossal economic mess (and a plethora of other messes), Obama gets elected with a suddenly collapsing banking system which we have to prop up to keep the country running and he's "in Wall Sts pocket."
perhaps the party of "personal repsonsibility" ought to try some. stop trying to find somebody else to blame for the disasters they've left us with and say "hey, sorry".
it would at least be a start. | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/27/2009 1:09:02 PM | There's plenty of blame for both sides.
Clinton actually signed away the biggest part of banking regulations, but Gramm authored the bill.
The Dems are closely tied to the GSE's by way of HUGE contributions, as well as the fact that the CRA influenced lenders to loosen standards and lend to people who should never have gotten loans. This was all on the Dems.
Some of the guys in Obamas circle were actually instrumental in the development of the crappy loan products(read Rubin) as well as the push to use them to rip off the entire world.
The GOP of course was all for removing any and all regulations, and so they are equally as filthy. Although there is an excellent clip on Youtube with some GOP senator quizzing Maxine Waters and Rangel? Barney Frank? anyway, the head Dems defending Fannie and Freddie when it was evident that they were insolvent way before the actual meltdown. The Dems stupidly called the senators "racists." It's hilarious to view the clip now knowing what we know.
Clearly, both "sides" are as corrupt as can be, were bought off, and have no defense for their lack of foresight.
Your point about what went before the Fed's inception is irrelevant, and does not address any of the facts that I have stated about the Fed and it's operations. | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/27/2009 1:23:11 PM |
Until people start realizing they're going to have to work HARD and stop feeling entitled...we're doomed
I agree! America is not a land of entitlement but the land of opportunity,however, opportunities have been misplaced in the equation and now we face the bigger problem of trying to educate rather than reform...A little education goes much further than reform.... | |
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wudger
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Joined: 12/20/2007
Msg: 65 | |
| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/27/2009 1:25:53 PM |
Your point about what went before the Fed's inception is irrelevant, and does not address any of the facts that I have stated about the Fed and it's operations.
I figured we'd hear that. history - get into it. | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/27/2009 6:19:42 PM | Well....Hollywood doesn't help anything, does it? All those shows about young people living the high life by conning others, or stealing, or other illegal activities. Perhaps they should show more about how these people lose everything when caught...oh yeah...they don't lose it all, do they? Just like the ex-mayor of Detroit...living the high-life, paying back the city for what he stole...at a rate of what? 6 dollars a month? LOL! We see gov't officials and corporate members getting huge bonuses, and "golden parachutes" for NOT doing their jobs!
Then we wonder why young people get this sense of entitlement...LOL. | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/27/2009 8:27:11 PM |
Until people start realizing they're going to have to work HARD and stop feeling entitled...we're doomed.
Finally someone gets to the heart of the matter! Thank you.
Oh, and the take-over of the world by Canada is scheduled for 2012. Just thought I'd let you in on a little inside information. Double-doubles and timbits for everybody! | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/28/2009 2:48:02 AM | If US collapses, it would not be a sudden collapse, it would be more like slow and steady slide of European countries which are now socially liberal stagnant (In my word 'vegetable') countries.
------------------------------------
Some of those western European countries have conservative governments.
many like the UK, France, Italy,Germany are G8 , with Spain coming up too. | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/28/2009 6:28:03 AM | 7. From apathy to dependence;
8. From dependence back into bondage
I would think that America is more in the range of number 7, heading into number 8. It is amazing how quickly it is happening. It is still up to the citizens to decide what they want. The only hope I see is that 55% are against free government healthcare, so maybe there is hope till the next generation. (The secret is in what the children are being taught in school). | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/28/2009 7:23:14 AM | I think most people are currently trying to push this country toward its demise whether they realize it or not. The country, itself, has got more than its share of problems (the economy, etc.) that need to be dealt with, and this is only exacerbated by people's polarization and utter refusal to get along with one another. As a result, we've got all kinds of lunatics on both sides running around scared like chickens with their heads cut off screaming all kinds of crazy things that aren't actually true.
I thought the 2012 thing was probably just another silly prediction like Y2K until I put it in context with what's currently going on. At the rate we're going, I wouldn't really be all that surprised.
I also agree about China likely surpassing us. They're like the Lebron James of the world. They're sitting there biding their time, continuously progressing, waiting for the United States of Kobe to officially be past its prime so that they can claim the throne as the new world superpower.
I do think Texas would survive fine as it's own country were it to secede. I'm not sure it would be a good country. But it would survive. We're a rather self sufficient place here as has been pointed out. And with the overwhelming amount of state pride here (seriously, everything we do is like rooting for the home team.... it's almost kind of funny), I don't really think too many other countries would mess with us. The problem is that I could see us getting a little crazy with some of the laws. I think many of the big city liberals would leave, and conservatism would permanently plant its flag in the position of authority. Which would turn us into a caracature of what many people believe us to be right now. | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/28/2009 8:13:01 AM | I do think Texas would survive fine as it's own country were it to secede. I'm not sure it would be a good country. But it would survive. We're a rather self sufficient place here as has been pointed out. And with the overwhelming amount of state pride here (seriously, everything we do is like rooting for the home team.... it's almost kind of funny), I don't really think too many other countries would mess with us. The problem is that I could see us getting a little crazy with some of the laws. I think many of the big city liberals would leave, and conservatism would permanently plant its flag in the position of authority. Which would turn us into a caracature of what many people believe us to be right now.
Interesting.
Caricature? Yes, could be the case eventually perhaps. I don't think that sounds entirely unrealistic as a "what could happen" kind of scenario. I think it could wind up being a very ... "conservative/ conservative-libertarian"-type of little country, if left to its own slight majority perhaps. Maybe Sarah Palin could be its President or VP...
I also agree about China likely surpassing us. They're like the Lebron James of the world. They're sitting there biding their time, continuously progressing, waiting for the United States of Kobe to officially be past its prime so that they can claim the throne as the new world superpower.
I think , personally, the US will remain a superpower at least in the military sense. But financially, yes, your analogy sounds right to me. I guess I think that the US will remain militarily (potentially) threatening, let's say .... for whatever that's really worth at the end of the day.... but financially broke and likely eventually disunited. Possibly (although likely not in our lifetimes) broken up into some sort of "federation" , such as Russia is today (as opposed to how it used to be the USSR, etc.). Nothing lasts forever. I think the days of America's "boom" times are (mostly) behind it (seems to have peaked in the post-WWII era all the way through until about the end of Vietnam or so).
I'm not saying it's going to be ALL "bust" from here on out ; likely things will eventually level out or come back some from where they are now (if due to nothing else then just through sheer attrition and the passage of time). And I'm not personally sure about all that business about the dollar being sh!t-canned tomorrow in favor of the Euro , and all this other American "doomsday"-type stuff I read here & there on the 'Net (like some commercial I saw recently said; if I believed everything I read on the Internet I'd be a millionaire Nigerian prince by now  ).
But in general the streets here are certainly no longer "paved with gold" , as the immigrants from Europe used to say back in the old days. Which is probably why, with the exception of some of the former Eastern Bloc countries, you really don't see hardly any immigration to here from Europe anymore, nor it seems any desire to immigrate here anymore ; that's been my experience speaking to Italians in Italy at least...not sure about everywhere. Whereas it used to be just the opposite. Don't get me wrong, this still is a prime destination (and it is indeed a huge improvement to say the least) if you're coming from a third-world country or something like that. But not any longer from the other "Western" countries.
I mean you might as well just stay there as opposed to coming here now, that's what I'm trying to say. And I'm sure most of them realize that. Because you've (likely) got some kind of gov't-funded and at least decent (to perhaps quite good) healthcare; you've likely got as good (if not better) general safety & security; you likely have about an equal unemployment rate to the US right now anyway; you have your vote and you have peaceful democratic legitimate transitions of power; you have all the same basic freedoms (sometimes even more.... with the exception of being able to openly deny the Holocaust perhaps in parts of western Europe, but I mean who wants to really do that anyway??). | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/28/2009 12:40:53 PM | If China surpasses us it is only because the wealthy and corps. helped them, without the collusion of industry the chinese wouldn't own us now. It is only the greed and short-sightednessof the upper class to think that we could give up making things and have the money to buy more things they got cheaply from our "enemies". The downside for the Chinese is that they are intertwined with us and can't pull the plug, like any parasite they can't live without us.
We will become a banana republic with no middle class to speak of just a few rich and lots of poor. | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/28/2009 1:19:52 PM | | ^^ A rich elite class (from which the "ruling class" will be, or rather really already is, composed), a very very tiny "middle" area, and then just people with varying degrees of financial hardships. Sounds close to how it seems to be already approaching now actually. | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/28/2009 1:25:14 PM | | The America our founders died to leave to us is being dismantled by idiots who actually look at the USSR as having the perfect modal for a society. Nevermind that it failed. | |
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wudger
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Joined: 12/20/2007
Msg: 75 | |
| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/28/2009 2:10:43 PM | oh they would have loved the last set of idiots the Right handed us a lot more.
had Jefferson ever met Bush he probably would have burned the draft of the constitution. | |
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| What is going to happen to/in America?
Posted: 9/29/2009 3:27:58 PM | oh they would have loved the last set of idiots the Right handed us a lot more.
had Jefferson ever met Bush he probably would have burned the draft of the constitution.
I agree that Bush made mistakes. Although the left seem to exagerate the extent of them. However, Bush at heart was an patriotic American. I believe he had the interest of the nation at heart.
Obama from the get go has been unshameful in his anti-American ideology. He is working his best to callapse this nation financially so he can make head way in destroying the freedoms that this nation has been built on.
I believe he deep down is probally a communist. You can hear it in the speeches he made before running for president and in his actions after he won. There is nothing about him that makes one think of an patriotic American. He seems to stand against all that America is about. His presidency is the worst America has ever seen and he is truley more dangerous to American interests than any terrorist out there. | |
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