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| | The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and IntelligencePage 2 of 4 (1, 2, 3, 4) | I've just begun to poke through the forums...it's a bit late right now, and I haven't read the entire thread yet, so I hope I'm not repeating something already mentioned.
In reference to the original post...there is an excellent book that goes very deeply into the exact topic you ask about called "The Singularity is Near" by Ray Kurzweil. In a nutshell he discusses the convergence of these three developing technologies 1) nano tech. 2) computing power 3) genetic/biological engineering.
Fascinating book which I highly recommend. Ray Kurzweil is an extremely well known and reputable writer and scientist. The book is also the size of a dictionary, so be prepared for some lengthy reading.
A basic premise is that human intelligence will indeed be superceded by "machine" intelligence, but a more accurate description is that human intelligence is about to undergo a change and morphing into/with "machine" or "computer" intelligence.
This is not so cut and dried as it may seem at first glance, and the natural tendency of many is to either deny it as being implausible, or to think it may be something not to be desired. Read the book!
As far as computing capacity, the current technology (someone noted this in a post I think) wil soon hit its limit, but there are many other development just over the horizon that will circumvent this, ie, quantum computing.
Another fundamental premise of Kurzweil's is that technological change occurs in a geometric fashion, not a linear one. Ie, the rate of change is proceeding at an exponential rate, not a steady and linear one. This creates, in his view, a tendency towards miscalculation regarding future events or technological development. Star Trek, for example, is set many hundreds of years in the future, but Kurzweil argues that the reality of such a "futuristic" world is much closer than most would think.
A great read for anyone interested in this topic. | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 1/13/2007 1:50:30 PM | Chip density shouldn't be a problem. Just use lots more of them in a bigger box!
No doubt that carbon lifeforms are mere stepping stones in the evolution of silicon lifeforms which are mere stepping stones ...
Silicon may need better help from carbon lifeforms than it seems to be getting here.
The brain isn't digital.
Synapses are not discrete - maybe 1000 carrying similar information
A neuron isn't an isolated processor - maybe >100 processing similar information
Nervous systems work by consensus.
Neurons need lots of synapses saying the same thing.
Action needs lots of neurons saying the same thing.
Drop the complexity count by a factor of 10^^5.
'Two heads are better than one', and the population of the world is heading for 10^^9 which gives a few orders of magnitude 'adjustment' on the complexity count.
It's OK, though, silicon has all the time in the world for carbon to figure it out. Even if it self-destructs a few times first. Atoms are tough to destroy - and they came long before viruses.
Have faith. | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 1/17/2007 2:46:21 PM | This is an interesting thread and very interesting comments. Unfortunately we are not going to be around long enough for there to be any relevance in this discussion.
OUR earth as we know it today is going to be VERY, VERY different 50 years from now as a result of global warming. Has anyone heard of this? | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 1/17/2007 7:17:46 PM |
Silicon may need better help from carbon lifeforms than it seems to be getting here.
The brain isn't digital.
Synapses are not discrete - maybe 1000 carrying similar information
A neuron isn't an isolated processor - maybe >100 processing similar information
Nervous systems work by consensus.
Neurons need lots of synapses saying the same thing.
Action needs lots of neurons saying the same thing.
This is all true, but I think the major missing piece right now is information topology, not hardware topology. The hardware that has evolved can deal with highly complex information structures. Computers, in general, tend to deal with much flatter structures. It's true that current hardware is optimized for a large amount of flat structure (whereas evolved hardware is built to solve problems in higher dimensional spaces), but it seems that that is the least of our problems. There's a problem of basic information theory in the realm of complex adaptive systems.
That said, I have to admit I'm interested in chemical computation models - using biological molecules to perform logical operations. They're highly parallel, and solving the problems with them might mean beginning to address the above issue. | |
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LBP
| | Joined: 12/27/2006
Msg: 30 | |
| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 1/19/2007 8:45:42 PM | I think the future of computers/robots will look to nature for efficient designs because nature seems to have licked a lot of the problems technology still struggles with.
You can't really compare the time it took to get where we are now from an abacus with the millions of years nature has had to hone its own technology. Nature is far more advanced than modern computers are.
As far as our own intelligence goes, I'd like to think that now that we are in the information age, logic will have a more powerful role in the way our systems are developed as opposed to tradition, culture, social structure etc. When we try to make logic work within those constraints, it contains biases. Biased science is bad science.
I think technology will be most affective if we use nature as our map. | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 1/20/2007 2:40:50 AM |
I think the future of computers/robots will look to nature for efficient designs because nature seems to have licked a lot of the problems technology still struggles with.
Agreed - that's why a lot of people are looking at genetic algorithms and artificial life models for problem solving. It's also becoming more acceptable to take a bottom-up approach rather than the traditional top down when doing modeling or design work. | |
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Smjle
| | Joined: 9/19/2006
Msg: 32 | |
| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 1/20/2007 12:40:19 PM |
OUR earth as we know it today is going to be VERY, VERY different 50 years from now as a result of global warming. Has anyone heard of this?
Global warming????
Snow fell on the palm trees of West Los Angeles and Malibu Wednesday afternoon. Sleet made driving treacherous on Kanan Dume Road, a steep route through the Santa Monica Mountains where it's more typical to see beach-bound cars loaded with surfboards than a snowplow.
Residents in West Los Angeles said the snow accumulated in parking lots, on cars and around palm trees near Wilshire and Santa Monica boulevards and other areas. Most of the snow fell south of Sunset Boulevard and just east of the 405 Freeway. Residents told NBC4 that several inches of snow fell in their yards.
The last snowfall recorded at Los Angeles International Airport was in January 1962, according to the National Weather Service. | |
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LBP
| | Joined: 12/27/2006
Msg: 33 | |
| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 1/20/2007 12:50:59 PM | Funny, and here I am in Canada and we've only had one snow storm so far this winter. I'm looking outside now, I can see green grass in February!!!
Soon we'll be saying, welcome to the tropic of Nova Scotia. | |
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Smjle
| | Joined: 9/19/2006
Msg: 34 | |
| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 1/20/2007 1:26:57 PM |
Soon we'll be saying, welcome to the tropic of Nova Scotia.
Otherwise the start of next ice age. Preceding each ice age most of the Arctic ice melts. Without so much ice over the Arctic Ocean, the ocean currents change allowing warm water to flow north and evaporate bringing lots of snow.
Once started, the ice age doesn't turn around until enough snow accumulates to lower the ocean level. Somehow that prevents or greatly reduces the ocean currents that provide the moisture for more snow. | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 1/20/2007 7:30:38 PM | As for Global Warming, it doesn't mean what it sounds like, it actually ends with an ice age and a completely remodeled surface of our planet, Global Warming is so named because of the immediate effects of it's phenomenon.
As for computers. I don't think we'll be using transistor based computers for much longer. Several international companies are and have been researching Quantum and Atomic computing for awhile now. Some are starting to show results, Quantum faces a problem with limiting it's field effect and data loss, where Atomic faces problems of many nature. But my guess is, 40 years from now, our brains will be our computers as well. We'll find some way to detect which parts of the brain are not currently in use, how to manipulate their natural node reconfiguration effect, and a way to push data in and out of those unused parts. Though Quantum computing appears to be the most feasibly with current research. | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 1/22/2007 8:27:57 PM | There are super computers out there with everything in them, they just not sure how to look up stuff on their own just yet. When they come up with a way where it asks its own questions, and answers them on its own then they will be on their way. Just have to program a system to match things up, and compare notes, and come up with logic."Matching things up until the peice fit sort of speak." Then cures would already be in the memory banks just waiting to be printed out. I think the hold up is in the way the wording is when its programed into the computer. You would have to have different levels of ways to search and compare the notes to find the answers.
Some day they will be able to put that in a machine that moves, because they will find it in the memory banks of the computer some day.
If are when that day would happen it would see humans as a bad virse. Because of the things we installed into it. Take the bible, its more are less the rules for seaming to be human with morals. If thats aplyed in there you would think there wouldn't be a proublem. Then again look at the churchs, how they even talk about the other churchs, instead of just tring to do good. People have proublems with who is right. Would people want a computer to tell them who is right. In the end we would tare it apart because we want to be the boss.The ones in control. So in time computers will have their place to help us, and yes to connect all the dots. As people not all dots connected would we see as good. It will come to pass, as all great things do. (Thats just a guess, you can get it out of any good sci-fi movie. So my thought is many have thought about what it would mean.)"I wonder if this site matched up peoples out looks in the forums and in their e-mails, and IM. Who would be like them on here enough to be happy in life toghter. Would you want the guess work took out of it, and maybe miss out on crossing paths with other people that teach us about human nature." | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 1/26/2007 8:13:38 PM | Does anyone have any idea on the future in regards to computers and robots?
Optronics. Light based computing along with MEMS or nanotech breakthroughs will allow for more complex and intergrated processors on much smaller scales say, less in size then a human hair. As breakthroughs in optical microswitching occur (thanks to the researchers in MEMS technology) it will provide more opportunities for optical chip developers to provide multi node parallel processing functions that operate within the given systems design allowing the inorganic construct to process its enviroment and its behavioral programing from a series of parallel perspectives and options. Thus allowing the constuct to make decisions within the restraints found within the programming of its cognitive model.
The problem with most silcon processors is the energy loss due to heat. In a light based system there will still be loss of energy due to this, depending on the energy wave used and the effiecency of the guides that route said energy from point to point, as well as the impact of the mechanical motion of the switching mirrors. But this is very slight compaired to existing electron based computing or modern electronics as realized today, and can be eliminated by the type of optical path that is matched, in this regaurd, to the frquencys of light used.
As for the mechanical type of body used, that relm is limited only by the creativity of the engineer and the industries that build them to fulfill human needs. | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 1/26/2007 9:59:54 PM |
This is an interesting thread and very interesting comments. Unfortunately we are not going to be around long enough for there to be any relevance in this discussion.
OUR earth as we know it today is going to be VERY, VERY different 50 years from now as a result of global warming. Has anyone heard of this?
I personally believe that this discussion WILL hold relevance within my lifetime at least. If the theory of computer intelligence doubling every 2 years - which it seems obvious if you compare technology that was around in say 2000 to what is around today (remember when not every one had cell phones and none of them were color - much less had video?).
If computers do advance to a point where the average computer/robot as a whole is smarter than the average human there could be definite life/death conflict say, between the 55th version of Ipod and my *future grandson. That or we'll all have not only GPS chips inserted into us but, emotional-response control chips to keep us happy-go-lucky.
From what I hear A.I. already exists...
As far as Global warming - this definitely won't kill off the human species. It will just make water a whole lot more expensive, crops that grow in cooler temps less and less available and probably put a lot of people who now live on the shore...underwater. Air quality probably won't be great either but, whatcha going to do? Oil companies run a lot of the world's evironmental policies right now...
*assuming I have a grandson someday | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 1/28/2007 6:53:33 AM | Ah Montreal Guy, an Asimov fan after my own heart 
Even way back when Asimov realized that the real threat from robots isn't technological, but instead sociological. What happens to a human being when danger, challenge, aspiration and consequence are removed? Decay is what happens.
Put quite simply, if humans can not grow, they die.
Robotic superiority is not a matter of if, but when. Like virtual reality, this is a technology that we must be very careful with for it could spell our doom as surely as a nuclear exchange. Asimov correctly sees our only chance of survival in the use of Robotic Laws and limitations for our creations.
However in his stories humans didn't go far enough. Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics controlled physical harm by robots to humans, they speak nothing of mental harm. In an Asimov society robots are the perfect servants, incapable of physically harming a human being and expendeding great resources and energy to make our lives as comfortable as possible. What becomes clear through out the stories is that this is only a slower death sentence compared to doomsday movies like Terminator or the Matrix.
Already we send robotic explorers ahead of us to inspect new worlds such as Mars. In a generation or two at the most robots will be capable enough to pave the way for human expansion so that little or no life is lost. But at what cost?
What lessons are learned and what innovations spurred by simply traveling to a new world? No, it is the struggle for survival in hostile environments that has been the catalyst for new dicoveries, new ways of thinking through out human history. What's more, it is the flaws of an older system (America, England, Spain, France, Italy) that drive people to those new areas. In the world our children will face every need will be tended to by robots, every desire granted by some form of escape or another (drugs, VR, robots, television).
Most, if not all of our heros, have been champions of stopping some great intolerance, an explorer opening new lands to the masses, or a scientist changing the world we live in for the better.
Heros are something to aspire to be and to take pride in. A world without them is where we are headed. Can we survive? Do we want to? | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 1/30/2007 10:26:20 AM | The future humans may not have any need for robots to think for them. In the works of Frank Herbert for example after an apocalypse involving sentient robots, machines found their rightful place as extensions of human ability not enslavers of as the humans rediscovered themselves and their destiny.
As for heros, it is a matter of perspective and in terms of mass conflict, which side you more identify with. That fact has not ever changed. | |
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Smjle
| | Joined: 9/19/2006
Msg: 41 | |
| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 2/1/2007 11:59:31 PM | | People keep thinking we will be in competition with computers. Not for a long long time. From one cell organisms. it took us billions of geneations develop emotions. Computers don't have emotions and, even when they 100 times smarter, they still will not. Perhaps in time, but it will take thousands of years. Now they may replace us as the domimate species simply because they will be so much smarter. | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 2/8/2007 8:57:30 PM | It is fascinating to wonder how machines will develop over the years. I wish I could know beyond my lifetime how technology will develop.
Nevermind comparing computers to the biological brain. They are different, and I don't see how they are in competition. Computers have some big advantages compared to the brain, and it would most excellent if computers could integrate with brains. I don't believe we have to worry about computers taking over the world because I don't believe they will have such a desire to do so for a long time. The only thing to worry about is how humans use new technologies. | |
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Dug01
| | Joined: 1/3/2007
Msg: 43 | |
| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 2/8/2007 10:52:47 PM | AI code is only as good as the coder, the language written in and the system. I have played around with ai in micro controllers and bots (software bots), it all boils down to possibilities versus system and coders input. Artificial Intelligence code is only as good as the programmer with regards to intelligence, however it will produce a better working memory. With computers it is reactions due to pre-written code, the machine cannot evolve unless pre-written in the code.
Dug | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 2/9/2007 9:43:58 PM |
With computers it is reactions due to pre-written code, the machine cannot evolve unless pre-written in the code.
A lot of people fear that computers will develop evolution suddenly... then get mad at people and take over. Like in Terminator when skynet suddenly becomes self aware. I am not concerned about it. It seems computers are as likely to develop consciousness as any other inanimate object like a rock or tampon. We don't know how to create consciousness other than the natural way... and computers seem far from having consciousness. | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 2/10/2007 9:13:36 AM |
So while the computer is about one million times faster, the human is a million times more complex. Intelligence wise, humans are one million times smarter than computers. Computers may have the intelligence of an amoeba. Depends on how one wishes to define "intelligence"... which would seem to be as much about data (software) as physical potential (hardware).
Computers aren't neural networks. Both methods are good at different things. A computer can be precise in a manner that you can never hope to accomplish... but it can't easily deal with abstract rather than concrete knowledge.
Want a quick ID, ask a person. Want a correct ID, ask a computer. | |
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Smjle
| | Joined: 9/19/2006
Msg: 46 | |
| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 2/11/2007 6:50:54 AM | Computers aren't neural networks. Both methods are good at different things. A computer can be precise in a manner that you can never hope to accomplish... but it can't easily deal with abstract rather than concrete knowledge.
While I grant that computers are far more consistent and less prone to mistakes, I believe, that has much to do with speed and patience. If a computer is a million times faster, a million seconds is 12 days. In less than 12 days a person can be precise and accurate.
Of course the computer will be correct, if properly programmed and asked the question in just the right way, just like a candy machine will give you the right candy if you press the right button. Human intelligence is way beyond that. Even though they have a long long ways to go to equal human intelligence they are progressing rapidly while humans are standing still. | |
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Dug01
| | Joined: 1/3/2007
Msg: 47 | |
| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 2/11/2007 10:49:35 AM | Microsoft started developing code name "Longhorn (Vista)" in May 2001. Longhorn was slotted to have a 3d desktop (ability to navigate in any direction in a virtual 3d) and improved security. Vista is finally released early this year without a 3d desktop and a security system that only the advanced user will be able to utilize in any efficient manner. In other words with all their programmers and money they failed miserably. Vista isn't a new step in os' but rather xp with technology that's existed for years plugged into it. As usual Microsofts failure to release accurate development packs has resulted in incompatibility with many of the established programs from other companies, as well as numerous pci hardware add-ons. None of this surprised me, why should it?
Current processors are already utilizing nano technology below the 12-.15 nm range. This is why we've seen a move to multi processor's. We already have micro-processors that operate at the electron range. We are rapidly approaching the limits as we now know them in computer technology.
Machine intelligence (ai) is only capable of learning to the degree it's been written into the code. Granted we can write an ai program utilizing plugins giving us the ability to more easily correct flaws in machine learning as well as add new processes. We can even write code that in turn writes or modifies code in itself. Regardless of all we add or improve we are left with a machine that cannot evolve except in the limits of human written code.
The only way I can see any concern about machines taking over would be if an organic brain was added to the mix. As you can imagine this would introduce a multitude of problems to work out. We would have to crack the language of the mind, interface the machine with the living mind, convert the mind language to assembly language, compile it and install it. Not a simple task to accomplish.
Dug | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 2/11/2007 6:55:12 PM |
While I grant that computers are far more consistent and less prone to mistakes, I believe, that has much to do with speed and patience. If a computer is a million times faster, a million seconds is 12 days. In less than 12 days a person can be precise and accurate. OK. Feel free to take 12 days if you like, but you can use no tools. To 5 signifigant digets, what percentage of your visual space is occupied by your keyboard right now? | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 2/11/2007 6:56:46 PM |
We can even write code that in turn writes or modifies code in itself. Regardless of all we add or improve we are left with a machine that cannot evolve except in the limits of human written code. Give me an example of a brain that "evolved" beyond the limits of its hardwiring. Perhaps one that started lifting weights. | |
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