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 Author Thread: Iranian capture of UK soldiers
 sombient

Joined: 2/7/2007
Msg: 26
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/24/2007 2:58:21 PM

Perhaps also Iran is ready for a Small regime change? They are really pushing their luck, and have been for years..


Certainly, thats the card that the US is playing: hardline action that will force the Iranian President into indefensible action (given his lack of popularity for certain actions in the last year). He is NOT the real decision maker in Iran, however, and the US must understand this fact, 'ere it will find itself spread VERY THINLY in multiple military actions which it cannot sustain in manpower, resources and costs.
 paddler

Joined: 9/29/2004
Msg: 27
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History
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/24/2007 6:35:00 PM
Lets not forget that the US has lots of practice at regime change in Iran. It was the CIA that arranged the overthrow of the constitutional government of Iran in 1953.
 honest_nice_guy

Joined: 9/18/2006
Msg: 28
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History
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/24/2007 6:56:04 PM
It was the CIA that arranged the overthrow of the constitutional government of Iran in 1953.......which put the young Shah back on the throne where we supported him til the 1979 revolution. his Savarin police were more brutal than Saddam in Iraq
 e-wok

Joined: 9/25/2006
Msg: 29
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/24/2007 7:05:06 PM
Nobody knows the truth....I'm certainly not gonna believe the GWB cartel,
and I have no reason to believe the Iranians. Both have motives...Iran to
make $$$$ and the GWB regime - excuse to invade Iran.

Who knows really but interesting enough, the Brits were using a
small boat that can't be seen on radar and if it were, they would
be able to release the radar recordings to the press to prove
their position...but, alas, it was too small and far far far away
from the mother ship.
 arri

Joined: 10/5/2005
Msg: 30
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/24/2007 7:33:09 PM
From the experience in Afghanistan and Iraq, I hope that by now this administration and future administrations learn that Islam is imprinted on the large enough segment of the population to insure that whatever kind on democracy we hope to install, will be , to a degree, a theocracy. The advantage with Iran is that Shiaism is subject to interpretations and if any group eventually interpret it in a way that works with us, it would be persians. They are also boneheaded and very independent. They want to organically change it and won't do it according to anyone else schedule or demands.
 countryslim01

Joined: 10/19/2005
Msg: 31
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/24/2007 7:53:58 PM
e-wok:


Who knows really but interesting enough, the Brits were using a
small boat that can't be seen on radar and if it were, they would
be able to release the radar recordings to the press to prove
their position...but, alas, it was too small and far far far away
from the mother ship.



They have satellite GPS location of the boats, and you can be assured after the fiasco of 2004 the Royal Navy wouldn't push the boundary a fraction!

Its obvious that the Iranians are peeved and looking for any confrontation possible including Kidnapping and Spy Trials for the fifteen.

This may be the straw that breaks the camels back..pun intended, to unite the UN for military action to clean up the mideast a little more. I really think the Majority of the Arab Gulf Inhabitants are weary of Iran's posturing, like they were of Saddam's.. I look for Israel to play a role in the next conflict, for surely Iran will be sending missles like Saddam did in Gulf war one.
 e-wok

Joined: 9/25/2006
Msg: 32
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/24/2007 9:38:37 PM
They have satellite GPS location of the boats, and you can be assured after the fiasco of 2004 the Royal Navy wouldn't push the boundary a fraction!


I'm reading from the BBC that Saddam reneged on a treaty with
Iran and redrew the border so he could invade Iran. Present time, the coalition
agrees with Saddam that the treaty with Iran was lame and so whatever
Saddam said should be respected because, you know, Saddam was
and honourable man. Ok. Rarely do we find that the
coalition agrees with Saddam.

Bomb Bomb Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran


Well, Tex, firstly you're from the south, you're a Methodist.....add them
up you have a Republican. So, you really didn't have to say squat to
get your point across.
 Love_on_fire

Joined: 12/31/2006
Msg: 33
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/24/2007 10:11:37 PM
Well, Tex, firstly you're from the south, you're a Methodist.....add them
up you have a Republican. So, you really didn't have to say squat to
get your point across.


Oh thats right just that easy eh LOL


Nobody knows the truth....I'm certainly not gonna believe the GWB cartel,
and I have no reason to believe the Iranians. Both have motives...Iran to
make $$$$ and the GWB regime - excuse to invade Iran.


That I agree with....too lol it's unfortunate that both sides have a false motivation behind this. Instead of making up and saying "sorry" one is in it for the money and the other for the oil and BOTH for the POWER......BUT .....NEITHER one of them will get the GLORY if they continue this way.

 Montreal_Guy

Joined: 3/8/2004
Msg: 34
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History
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/25/2007 12:17:49 AM
You start boarding Iranian ships, and anyone's surprised that they react like this ?

If a group of Iranians had boarded a US or Iraqi ship, it would be seen as provocation as well.

I hope those guys get released quickly, and suffer no harm.

What I'm most worried about is an Iranian smuggler's high speed boat being misidentified as some sort of threat . They typically work at night, and are quite fast. In the tight, stressed, enviroment they are dealing with - it could be the spark that sets off a major military incident.

Remember the Iranian air airliner (flight 655) that was shot down, by the U.S.S. Vincennes ?

I don't even want to think about what a mistake like that might trigger today.
 countryslim01

Joined: 10/19/2005
Msg: 35
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/25/2007 4:18:19 AM
MG:



You start boarding Iranian ships, and anyone's surprised that they react like this ?


They say (Iraqi Fishermen) that it wasn't an Iranian Ship, and they say it had been anchored in the same (Iraqi) waters for over a week waiting to unload at an IRAQI Port before even being boarded by the Brits, and they say the Iranians swarmed the Brits in Iraqi Waters.





If a group of Iranians had boarded a US or Iraqi ship, it would be seen as provocation as well.


Does Iran have a UN approved Mandate to board a US or Iraqi Ship?



What I'm most worried about is an Iranian smuggler's high speed boat being misidentified as some sort of threat . They typically work at night, and are quite fast. In the tight, stressed, enviroment they are dealing with - it could be the spark that sets off a major military incident.


You can bet its not buisiness as usual anymore... The Brits were caught by surprise to a certain extent because they did not take heed of American Intel suggesting Iran was ratcheting up efforts in the South, where the Brits were operating, and the audacity of the Iranians was swift and planned.

You'd think the latest Iranian wargames near that same area would have told people something.. They are also miffed at the recent defections of their own, plus the five the US detained.



Remember the Iranian air airliner (flight 655) that was shot down, by the U.S.S. Vincennes ?


I wouldn't put it past the Iranians to make another Tragedy happen on purpose, just to create more Propaganda for the Gullible ones of the world to suck up!
 e-wok

Joined: 9/25/2006
Msg: 36
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/25/2007 4:56:40 AM
I wouldn't put it past the Iranians to make another Tragedy happen on purpose, just to create more Propaganda for the Gullible ones of the world to suck up!


Gullible ones? Like the 90% support GWB rec'd leading up to the war in
Iraq? Those dudes?


They say (Iraqi Fishermen) that it wasn't an Iranian Ship, and they say it had been anchored in the same (Iraqi) waters for over a week waiting to unload at an IRAQI Port before even being boarded by the Brits, and they say the Iranians swarmed the Brits in Iraqi Waters.


Who the hell are "they"?? You still buying into anything said by "they"? That, my
friend, would be gullible.


I wouldn't put it past the Iranians to make another Tragedy happen on purpose, just to create more Propaganda for the Gullible ones of the world to suck up!


Ummm.........WMD.

'Nuff said.
 whothehellknows

Joined: 7/23/2006
Msg: 37
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Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/25/2007 8:30:56 AM
This happened on the same day that the UN was meeting to discuss sanctions on Iran over their nuclear program. Last summer Iranian backed Hezbeloah kidnapped Israeli soldiers just days before other rounds of talks on sanctions were being held. Iran is sending very clear messages to the world without saying so publicly.

The British may have very well been in the territorial waters of Iran, but their capture shows that the USA is not the only country to uses it's military for political means. Iran has western armies on two sides and a prowestern Islamic state in Pakistan to it's west, it's just flexing it's military muscle and almost daring a strong reaction.

Iran is doing what all countries do, looking after it's own best interests. As long as the US goes worldwide starting/fighting wars, supplying it's own weapons to various governments and militias, and using threats and intimidation against other countries in the middle east, it is in Iran's best interest to develop nuclear weapons. For them it could quite possibly be a matter of survival as a sovereign nation.
 arri

Joined: 10/5/2005
Msg: 38
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/25/2007 9:09:23 AM

This happened on the same day that the UN was meeting to discuss sanctions on Iran over their nuclear program. Last summer Iranian backed Hezbeloah kidnapped Israeli soldiers just days before other rounds of talks on sanctions were being held. Iran is sending very clear messages to the world without saying so publicly.


I agree with everything else you said, But that one wasn't exactly 100% Hezbollah or Iran's fault.


Israel admits Lebanon war planned months in advance
Malaysia Sun
Thursday 8th March, 2007

On July 12 last year, Hezbollah raided an Israeli military post and captured two Israeli soldiers. Three others died in the attack.

Five other soldiers were killed that day, four instantly, and one later, when a tank struck a mine. This however, according to Haaretz newspaper, occurred six kilometres inside Lebanese territory.

http://story.malaysiasun.com/index.php/ct/9/cid/b8de8e630faf3631/id/232828/cs/1/


There are admitions now that it was planed.


Bolton admits U.S. blocked Israel-Lebanon truce
3/22/2007 4:00:00 PM GMT

(Reuters Photo) Bolton said he was "damned proud of what we did" to prevent an early truce

The U.S. former ambassador to the the United Nations, John Bolton, admitted that Washington deliberately resisted calls for an immediate ceasefire during Israel’s conflict with the Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah last summer.

The United States wanted Israel to eliminate Hezbollah’s military capability before any truce can be implemented, Bolton told the BBC in a radio documentary, titled The Summer War in Lebanon, to be broadcast in April.

http://www.aljazeera.com/me.asp?service_ID=12971


And the U.S. was in on it.

With all honesty. US is treating Iran like the savages that want independence from an imperial power. All that they have been doing and saying points to that conclusion. However, I doubt that the Iranians want the bomb. Most likely, they are setting lofty goals in domestic ability to master sciences and capabilities and achieving mastery of nuclear technology is a matter of pride.

Unlike most theocratic regimes including the Taliban that want to set the clock back to the 7th century, Iranians have demonstrated efforts at nation building and reforms since the end of the Iran/Iraq war. The university enrolment is going up from 100000 to 2 million a year, 65% female, massive privatization programs and emphasis on maximizing oil profits and establishing free ports.
 rev0218

Joined: 3/6/2006
Msg: 39
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History
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/25/2007 4:11:05 PM
It should be noted that in the past when these types of incidents happened that both sides claim they were in the right. Remember the Pueblo and the U2 incident. After much flexing of muscle and postering, it came out that foreign space was violated. I suspect the Iranians were waiting for this type of thing to happen so they could take advantage of it. More than likely they have proof of GPS positioning of the ship that was boarded. I doubt if they would risk it otherwise.

Frankly, it is just BS from both sides.
 packleader

Joined: 8/18/2006
Msg: 40
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History
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/25/2007 8:45:52 PM
My two cents..........The apex of two recent events makes me believe in more than coincidence.The almost simultaneous occurances of the capture of 15 Brits and the announcement by Akmadinjad of the cancellation of his UN trip leads me to believe that the controlling arm of Iran is flexing its muscle.Akmadinjad is nothing but a powerless mouthpiece.The way I see it , the commandos controlled by the IRGC,commanded by Major General Yahya Rahim-Safani ,who in turn works for and answers to the Ayatollah Khamenei, has been given his marching orders to send one huge message to the rest of the World.Today the IRGC is actually assigned responsilbility for both Iran`s Shahab missle program and its nuclear weapons program.The Qods Force{Jerusalem Force} is a unit of the IRGC and is responsible for terrorist activites .
When US Forces raided Iran`s "Consulate" in the northern city of Irbil in Jan 2007,one of those detained there was the Qods Force operations chief,Hassan Abasi,who is a ranking advisor to Ahmadinjad.The dude that will make ultimate decisons comes from a purely religous viewpoint,IMO.
I just hope that these fanatics dont put the Brits on trial.

Pack
 sombient

Joined: 2/7/2007
Msg: 41
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/25/2007 9:15:38 PM
Agreed, Pack. Its circumstance that they were close enough for the Iranians to call it illegal tresspass. The talk today in Tehran was that this has happened several times before; stiffer measures are necessary to make a point. Therefore, the possibility of bringing charges against the Royal Naval personnel are being considered. This is why they were not released after being humiliated (made to 'confess') on public television.

I don't think this is idle threat. The UK and Iran have diplomatic ties. It remains to be seen what agreements can be made that will end in the release of these men. And, it remains to be seen what the costs might be, in terms of negotiated settlement of the dispute.

The costs will not be cheap, this you can count on.
 Larissan04

Joined: 4/28/2004
Msg: 42
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History
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/25/2007 10:08:13 PM
why do i think the media is reporting the story, or sorry, "spinning" it, as you say...
well, i think they are reporting it because it happened? um, we know they've done this sort of thing before? and they are trying to use these soldiers as leverage for a swap of iranians that were arrested in iraq? the iranians are pissed off because the UN finally voted for sanctions and they want to puff up thier chest a bit, and look "strong" to the nuckle heads back home?

i don't know, there are myriad reasons i suppose, but if i may, i assume it has more to do with complete and utter stupidity on the iranian's part. I mean, it is fascinating, isn't it? to watch a meglomaniacal wack job do something as stupid as kidnap british soldiers.. i mean, even a three year old could figure out that THAT is a bad idea... perhaps that is why the press is reporting it really... i mean, it couldn't actually be newsworthy or anything... it's reality tv, and it is fascinating to watch a psycho in action...

lar
 e-wok

Joined: 9/25/2006
Msg: 43
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/25/2007 10:10:43 PM
This also might be in retaliation for the recent kidnappings of
Iranian officials by the Americans? It's basically a way to
rub the Americans nose in it and give 'em a taste of their
own medication? I see merit in that. Basically they are
saying: "Dudes, wanna go toe to toe?...well, here it is!"

Yes, they were Brits, but they no doubt would have preferred
American soldiers...but you can't always get what you want.

I'm pretty certain this will be over by Wednesdayish.

 Thudpucker

Joined: 8/14/2005
Msg: 44
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/26/2007 8:20:53 AM
A few Iranians are likely slated to give their life for the preservation of their country on this one. The Brit military has the intel and the military backbone to extract a tremendous price for Iranian adventurism.

Iran doesn't have the military skills necessary to back up their foolishness.
 sand whippet

Joined: 2/26/2007
Msg: 45
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/26/2007 9:07:07 AM
I for one second the above - and being in Basra on sunday this week, will watch developments closer than most armchair generals!!
 arri

Joined: 10/5/2005
Msg: 46
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/26/2007 10:10:11 AM

it's reality tv, and it is fascinating to watch a psycho in action...


I know what you mean. I really enjoy watching Bush, Cheney and specially Tony Snow trying to justify their actions on TV.

More things are going on that meets the eye. In the past few months, a number of Iranian military officials have been kidnapped. Its kept out of the news and whenever the west has made reference, they have called it defection. It's absurd to assume that a senior IRGC commander would defect .. and without his family. There is also the matter of the security of Iranian diplomats in Iraq. One of their consulates was raided, another one kidnapped in Baghdad and so on. A nuclear scientist poisoned etc.

It is not consistent with the Iranian policy to take inculcated actions, especially when the aim is to make it public. Without a doubt, they have a defensible position and enough evidence to legitimize their position. Also, by targeting the British, they can increase the divide between the US and UK. Presence of UK in Iraq is the only thing that gives the American any appearance of international legitimacy to the Iraqi adventure.

Lastly, The Brits don't really want to be in Iraq anymore. Iranians want the Brits to leave southern Iraq ASAP and this would serve them well on the British TV.
 dorionland

Joined: 10/21/2006
Msg: 47
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/26/2007 10:22:18 AM
Iran captured UK terrorists? How dare they? I'm outraged.
 sombient

Joined: 2/7/2007
Msg: 48
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/27/2007 12:13:26 PM
A picture of what might have happened is emerging:

First: The Brits weren't expected to be in the vicinity


However, one high-ranking Iraqi official has expressed surprise that British forces were operating in the area. Brigadier-General Hakim Jassim, commander of Iraq's territorial waters, said: "Usually there is no presence of British forces in that area, so we were surprised and we wondered whether the British forces were inside Iraqi waters or inside Iranian regional waters."


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6500583.stm

We also know that another Iraqi high official has spoken with Tehran Iranian piplomatic counterparts and demanded the release of the detained Royal Navy personnel:


Iraqi foreign minister says Britons detained by Iran were in Iraqi waters BAGHDAD, 26 March 2007 (AFX News Limited) Fifteen British sailors captured last week by Iran were detained in Iraqi not Iranian waters as maintained by Tehran, Iraq's Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said. His ministry issued a statement after Zebari telephoned his Iranian counterpart Manouchehr Mottaki late yesterday to urge Iran to free the British navy personnel. "The minister stressed that they (the British navy personnel), according to Iraqi authorities' information, were detained inside Iraqi territorial waters," said the statement. "They are part of the multinational forces (based in Iraq) with the approval of the Iraqi government and in accordance with the relevant UN Security Council resolution," it added. "The minister demanded that they be released and the issue be tackled wisely," the Iraqi foreign ministry said. In Basra, Britain's Major David Gell said: "We believe that they definitely were operating in Iraqi waters."


Then read a reasonable read of the incident, from the Iranian perspective:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6496191.stm

Here's what probably happened:

Iranian officials detect the presence of UK Naval Military ships and away boats in action in an unusual position within UN-sanctioned Iraqi waters. Now, Iran and Iraq have been strengthening ties. Arri mentions this in the other active thread on Iran, in this forum section (posted yesterday). This includes tightened security for oil and natural gas and transborder transport of goods and power (electricity), food, medical supplies, etc.

So I think the Iranian and Iraqi Naval authorities probably have a working relationship. If unusual activity is detected, there is probably chitchat on Naval airwaves between the two. I think that a cursory request for clarification of authorized activity was raised by Iran, Iraqi Territorial Waters Authority sent back a "we dunno who/why, its unusual activity".

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards, thinking this is a repeat of former boundary transgression, charge in and take action, politely ignoring the position of the UK Naval ships with respect to proximity to Iranian waters (not even close).

Iraqi officials, once they realize what has happened, start to backtrack (various government officials powow to determine the actual position of the UK ships, once pressured by the UK and UN) and realize their mistake and that of the Iranians, and politely but forcefully suggest that the Iranians acted in error and demand the release of the 15 detained sailors.

Now the Brits and the Iranians are quietly discussing matters through diplomatic channels, probably with additional prodding from Arabs leaders and Iraq, who would like to play this down, so as not to cause rifts in a very careful tightrope walking relationship with Iran, who afterall, will play a role along with other neighbors in the restoration plan that is currently under discussion, to get Iraq into a stabilized status.
 arri

Joined: 10/5/2005
Msg: 49
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/27/2007 12:54:56 PM
sombient

I wouldn't put too much into the Iraqi comments about the whole thing. They are just a mouse stuck between few large cats and have to be nice to both sides. The comments made by the Iraqi government officials in this case is pretty close to the same comments made after the US forces attacked and detained the Iranian diplomats on January 11th raide on Irbil.


The arrests in Irbil drew condemnation from the regional Kurdish government and concern from Iraqi officials in Baghdad, who are trying to maintain close ties with both Iran and the U.S. despite the hostility between the two. It was the second effort by the U.S. to target Iranians in less than a month.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/01/12/ap/world/mainD8MJD00G0.shtml


However, apparently, US had promised to release the Iranians before the Persian New Year.


Five Iranians detained during an American raid in northern Iraq last January could be released as early as next week, Iran's ambassador said Wednesday.

Hassan Kazemi Qomi said US officials had informed Iranian delegates at a weekend security conference here that they were in "the final stage" of the investigation into the case. Qomi said he hoped the five could be released before the Iranian New Year, which falls on March 21.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1173879087070&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull


When that didn't happen. Iran most likely decided to retaliate.
 Thudpucker

Joined: 8/14/2005
Msg: 50
Iranian capture of UK soldiers
Posted: 3/27/2007 2:29:56 PM
Arri and Sombient:

Iran is not usually very demanding about getting it's people back. It's likely that one of the detained Iranians is a spook (intel) or a political organizer.

I figure hat the Brits already have a rescue operation planned -- maybe already in place, and the Iranian "detainees" are being grilled over high heat.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to produce weapons grade plutonium. I suspect Haifa would be a likely target. Spec Op teams will be VERY active over the next few days. Watch for a lot of "accidents" to happen.
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