Free Dating Site    

Logical fallacy - argumentum ad ignoranteum - or "I must be right because you can't prove me wrong". Which is ALSO the logical fallacy of false dichotomy [or false polytomy] - reducing the number of answers below the number which actually exist.

but that proability will increase if you CANprovide credible evidence...

No, probability is tied to parsimony, ...stacking the deck with evidence changes nothing as the only credible evidence is PROOF, making probability moot. In science, parsimony is preference for the least complex explanation for an observation. This is generally regarded as good when judging hypotheses. Occam's razor also states the "principle of parsimony", the principle states that the explanation of any phenomenon should make as few assumptions as possible, eliminating those that make no difference in the observable predictions of the explanatory hypothesis or theory.

Here's where your "I calculate the probability" really falls flat on it's face.

Try to state a case without using ANY false logic.

Take my cases and provide your least complex explanation....

the assumption is itself the theory and the theory itself is the assumption...

See....you don't get it...
I am not saying I MUST BE RIGHT because you can'tprove.....
I am saying the probability stilll exists because you can't prove otherwise.....

Take my cases and provide your least complex explanation....

1) Those with a belief in alien activity(based on good evidence given by professional people, including scientists and astronauts /cosmonauts etc.) are being either intentionally or unintentionally intimidated with calls of “BS” for said belief.

2) This is a discussion board – open to opinion – none can have dominion over another’s belief/opinion.

And here is another belief/opinion: I find it increasingly nauseating when authorities, at every level, impede the rights of others to express themselves in said manner…

I believe alien activity exists on earth – the fact that I have no hard evidence is neither important nor necessary. We – others and I are still at liberty to express these views.

I believe alien activity exists on earth – the fact that I have no hard evidence is neither important nor necessary. We – others and I are still at liberty to express these views.

i feel that it is naive to believe that we are the only intelligent life in the vast stretches of the universe. We just haven't discovered them yet, or we did and the govt. is lying about it.

Jesse Marcel, a chief player in this story, has publically stated that the debris shown in the picture of him with it was not anything like the debris he had seen on the crash site.

In my book I publish for the first time excerpts from the military file of Jesse Marcel, excerpts which prove that although Marcel served his country honorably, he was not a credible witness and should not be considered as such. (Despite this fact, Stanton Friedman and other pro-UFO Roswell authors consider his every word to be gospel truth.) The file is extremely incriminating, for it it clearly demonstrates that Marcel had a penchant for exaggerating things while repeatedly trying to "write himself" into the history books. Ironically, Marcel's tendency to exaggerate was specifically noted in his military file by none other than the commander of the base at Roswell at that time, in a review of his performance that was signed just after the incident occurred.
Marcel claimed that he personally flew the UFO wreckage to Carswell AFB. He could not have done so, for he was never a pilot. Despite this, Marcel claimed in numerous interviews with Friedman and former National Enquirer reporter Bob Pratt that he was not only a pilot but had managed to shoot down five enemy aircraft! If so, this would have made Marcel an "ace," a distinction that certainly would have been noted in his military file. Instead, there's no record of this or even anything close, and in fact it was General Ramey who specifically noted in Marcel's file that because he was not a pilot, he would be severely limited in his career opportunities in the Air Force. It's no wonder, then, that Marcel would later "blame" Ramey for the "UFO coverup" at Roswell.

Marcel claimed he had a bachelor's degree in physics and even named the universities he attended. However, when I checked with those institutions, I discovered that one of them he never attended, and he never finished his education at the other. Curiously, while Marcel blatantly lied to UFO researchers such as Friedman about his mythical educational background, he never dared make such false claims to the military. Indeed, in signed statements contained in Marcel's military file, he replies "none" when asked under oath if he had a college degree.

Does this tell us that Marcel knew his gullible UFO peers would never check on him anyway? Or did he even care? We don't know.

So your are absolutely right. The government is lying about this.

There are also first-hand eyewitness accounts, both from other military officers and from the person whose property the debris landed on, that the debris was nothing more than rubber, lightweight wood, tape, and paper.

Interview with Mac Brazel
Roswell Daily Chronicle, July 9, 1947

W.W. Brazel, 48, Lincoln county rancher living 30 miles south east of Corona, today told his story of finding what the army at first described as a flying disk, but the publicity which attended his find caused him to add that if he ever found anything short of a bomb he sure wasn't going to say anything about it.

Brazel was brought here late yesterday by W.E. Whitmore, of radio station KGFL, had his picture taken and gave an interview to the Record and Jason Kellahin, sent here from the Albuquerque bureau of the Associated Press to cover the story. The picture he posed for was sent out over the AP telephoto wire sending machine specially set up in the Record office by R. D. Adair, AP wire chief sent here for the sole purpose of getting out the picture and that of sheriff George Wilcox, to whom Brazel originally gave the information of his find.

Brazel related that on June 14 he and 8-year-old son, Vernon were about 7 or 8 miles from the ranch house of the J.B. Foster ranch, which he operates, when they came upon a large area of bright wreckage made up on rubber strips, tinfoil, a rather tough paper and sticks.

Testimony of Brigadier General Thomas J. DuBose

As mentioned earlier, Colonel Thomas J. DuBose, who later retired as a brigadier general, was present when the wreckage was brought into Ramey's office. There's no disputing this fact, because DuBose met the B-29 personally when it arrived at Carswell AFB (Fort Worth) from Roswell carrying the debris that Marcel had collected.
DuBose not only greeted the incoming plane, but hand carried the wreckage remnants in a sealed canvas mail pouch, immediately escorting it to Ramey's office.

In a revealing interview, DuBose puts to rest the "mystery" of the so-called substituted wreckage and exposes it for what it is -- another Major Marcel myth. DuBose's comments have never appeared before in any book on Roswell.

Q: There are two researchers (Schmitt and Randle) who are presently saying that the debris in General Ramey's office had been switched and that you men had a weather balloon there in its place.
A: Oh Bull! That material was never switched!

Q: So what you're saying is that the material in General Ramey's office was the actual debris brought in from Roswell?

A: That's absolutely right.

In a second and a third, final interview, DuBose repeated his assertions that no wreckage substitution had taken place. More important, by the time of the third interview, DuBose had looked at the photos of the recovered debris taken at that time by J. Bond Johnson. DuBose recognized the material in the photos.

Q: Did you get a chance to read the material and look at the pictures?
A: Yes, and I studied the pictures very carefully.

Q: Do you recognize that material?

A: Oh yes. That's the material that Marcel brought into Fort Worth from Roswell.

DuBose's comments are significant, because they establish that there was no substituted wreckage and that the material Marcel recovered near Roswell was later photographed and put on display for public view in Ramey's office by Ramey himself.

I also present the testimonies of Irving Newton, who was also present that day in Ramey's office, and Sheridan Cavitt, who helped Marcel collect the wreckage from the ranch. After looking at the same debris photos, they confirmed that they depict the material they recalled seeing and that no UFO debris was ever there. In fact, both Newton and Cavitt make it very clear in their interviews that they have been misquoted by various UFO researchers, and they resent it.

What Really Happened at Roswell
- Kal K. Korff

http://www.roswellfiles.com/Witnesses/Kaufmann.htm
FRANK KAUFMANN (STEVE MACKENZIE)

The two Randle/Schmitt books tend to be quite contradictory. People, events and dates change, and even people's names. The authors briefly acknowledged this in the Authors' Statement preface to The Truth About the UFO Crash at Roswell. but limit this to saying that the book is an "...opportunity to correct errors in the original manuscript, add data collected after the publication of the hardback book, and obtain additional corroboration for the main report."

In their first book, UFO Crash at Roswell, the crash took place on July 2nd and was located on the Foster Ranch only a few miles from the debris field found by "Mac" Brazel. Major Marcel's recollections have a large part in this book, and his version of the crash site, debris descriptions and the events form the core of the story.

In their second book, The Truth About the UFO Crash at Roswell, the crash takes place on July 5th and is located just North of Roswell on what was then the McKnight ranch, which is far from the Foster ranch. Maj Marcel has been largely relegated to the back row, and the stories of Steve McKenzie (Frank Kaufmann), Jim Ragsdale, Melvin Brown, Lewis Rickett, and others now are on the front stage. Indeed, it is curious that much of Maj Marcel's version is now contradicted by these new witnesses, though the authors fail to note this.

Many of the people in the first book do different things in the second book. So Frank Kaufmannn, a minor character in the first book, becomes Steve MacKenzie in the second book. Jim Ragsdale's story undergoes some radical changes.

Can ya smell that fiction yet?