online dating service
REGISTER | MAIL/PROFILE | HELP | NOW ONLINE | SEARCH | RATING | FORUMS | SUCCESS STORIES

 

Plentyoffish dating forums are a place to meet singles and get dating advice or share dating experiences etc. Hopefully you will all have fun meeting singles and try out this online dating thing... Remember that we are the largest 100% free online dating service, so you will never have to pay a dime to meet your soulmate.
     
Show ALL Forums  > Science/philosophy  > MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?      Mod Threads Home login  
Page 7 of 7 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
 Author Thread: MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
 Ahoytheredave

Joined: 8/29/2006
Msg: 151
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/2/2009 8:19:37 PM

Specifics, please.

All of the above. As I said, the nature and distribution of the dust. Do you have the specifics?

However, clearly the question of the interaction between cosmic ray primary and secondary particles with the atmosphere and there impact on cloud production isn't well understood,.....

Yet this concept was labeled "dodgy"? I am guessing many wanted to dismiss the concept because it called into question strongly held beliefs, not unlike many religious beliefs. Being as you claim to be the expert in this area, how is it you are so blindsided by it as a potential explanation for the majority of climate change?


the question is what happens when it's all released again.

Most is sequestered in rock not hydrocarbons. If we expanded the use, over time we might manage to double the CO2 with the only impact being accelerated plant growth including food supplies. On the other hand, the balance from the plant growth might limit the CO2 levels to some percentage of that actually released. Much of the AGW hype assumes a positive feedback that ignores CO2 effects on plant growth instead of the normal negative feedback provided by plants.

The hydrocarbons are in effect biofuels. It can fuel an economy and feed the populations until new technology can eliminate the need. An alternative is to implement draconian policies that pit energy and food needs against each other and the environment and create resentment levels leading to war including civil war on a global scale. All this on questionable science based on circumstantial evidence ignoring unknowns with clear political and profit motives for those most involved with pushing the policies.
 stargazer1000

Joined: 1/16/2008
Msg: 152
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/2/2009 9:31:10 PM
Hey Dave, you're going to love this...

Just watched a show on mass extinctions. Turns out, about 400 million years ago, there was a mass extinction. It's called the permian. Due to the Siberian traps supervolcano going off and releasing massive amounts of carbon dioxide - roughly 6 times what there is today - the climate....wait for it...warmed! Rapidly. Out of an ice age!


Being as you claim to be the expert in this area, how is it you are so blindsided by it as a potential explanation for the majority of climate change?


Ah, so apparently we're only supposed to accept your expertise. However, not blindsided in the least. Again, the connection isn't strong. If we want sources of cloud formation through nucleation, there's a ton of it likely covering missed spots in your furniture. And on your car. And your lawn. The deserts of the world...need I go on?


Much of the AGW hype assumes a positive feedback that ignores CO2 effects on plant growth instead of the normal negative feedback provided by plants.


Ah yes, plants. Well, in case you haven't been following the news Dave, there's been a lot of very important plants lost. Turns out trees are very useful for more than just making trendy furniture and houses. And replacing those trees? In some areas of the world like the Amazon, the "lungs" of the world, cows. Belching, farting cows.


An alternative is to implement draconian policies that pit energy and food needs against each other and the environment and create resentment levels leading to war including civil war on a global scale. All this on questionable science based on circumstantial evidence ignoring unknowns with clear political and profit motives for those most involved with pushing the policies.


Oh Dave. Really? Like oil hasn't been a good enough reason for nations to go to war? Give me a break.

For someone who decries the AGW movement as a "religion," you're pounding on your denial like a baptist preacher at a prayer meeting. Hallelujah!
 b0rg

Joined: 12/14/2007
Msg: 153
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/2/2009 11:18:06 PM
Nova… We agree, Shaviv’s work is bona fide. It’s just that his hypothesis is not supported by subsequent study.

StarG… Bang on (as usual).

Sailor… Challenge us and you have now received.

Don’t think so? The propaganda is so predictably repetitious that the rebuttal(s) is(are) as easy as referencing a previous post from months ago! Check out The Collective’s message 231 of:

http://forums.plentyoffish.com/10593991datingPostpage10.aspx
.
.
.
In detail…


Msg 140

So, it will be interesting to see whether a causative relationship does exist. Time will tell I suppose.

Yes. But in the meantime, the measurements that caused Shaviv to suggest the “lag time” mitigation are not promising. Longer term datasets may shed more light on the situation, but the order of magnitude of CRF forcing isn’t being supported.


Msg 140

I would never compare this science with that of the 2012 crowd, however. It's one thing to say the science is dodgy, but to compare the hypothesis of a legitimate academic with a fear-mongoring pseudoscience is more than unfair.

The 2012 crowd are in class of their own. The relationship between CRF and mean global temperature being the level that Shaviv claims is dodgy. His scientific approach and practice is not in the least bit flaky. His hypothesis is sensible as a hypothesis (something that can’t be said of Mayan calendar promoters). It is just that it is not supported by subsequent observation.

Shaviv’s work isn’t pseudoscience. However, pseudoscience promoters tend to cling to anything that can be construed as support and cause that support to viewed that way.


Msg 140

In any case, I don't agree with the concept of the op; climate is such a complex system. There's no reason to think there can't be a large number of factors that enter into the equation.

There definitely are a plethora of contributors to the climate of Earth. Events like ice-dam ruptures and large forest fires are extraordinarily rapid variable changes. Humans are finding out that the rate at which they have re-introduced CO2 into the atmosphere is also a rapid variable change as far as the reaction from damping systems. One may not need to be aware of all the variables of a system to know that alterations of a single one will cause notable instability. Perhaps the instability will not be as marked as say a collision with a large object, but it is proving to be something not to be ignored.

Yes. The model should undergo more refinement. However, if one knows a column supporting a structure is weakened, it is prudent to reinforce or repair it (if possible). One may look for other problem areas, but fix what you know first. Deniers love to say, don’t fix ANYTHING until you inspect every last brick (since maybe it’s just all coincidence that the building is slowly tipping to the side). The wiser tenant knows better.

The biosphere is conditioned to react to the more docile dynamics of that system. When that system undergoes extraordinary perturbation, it will undergo some extraordinary reactions. These reactions have no cognition or consideration for the biosphere.


Msg 140

It seems that we're finally getting past the idea that the science is settled and we're continuing to learn more. Not a bad thing, for sure.

We certainly agree that the pursuit of knowledge is a good thing. However, the whole “science is settled” thing is really an intentionally misleading construct of the contrarians. Don’t buy into what they say climate scientists are saying. Climate science is still dynamic (as every climate scientist demands it to be.)

There is a clear distinction between realizing that there is enough evidence in support of a hypothesis, and whether a claim has been made that a model has been designed to a perfectionist’s requirements. Climate scientists are satisfied that the rise in atmospheric CO2 has caused notable reaction in the Earth’s climate system. They have never said or implied that “the science is settled” (as in “that’s all, it’s a wrap, let’s go grab a beer, our work is done.”)

Whether or not the artificial acceleration of CO2 release has caused a plastic shift to the climate damper process, and whether or not that shift will have notable negative effects on the biosphere is a real concern.

Unlike a lot of the junk we see, work like Shaviv’s and some of the other things you have brought up are interesting and help prove the discipline of science.


Msg 150

Oh, and I'd say flyguy did a fine job with the whole "greenhouse" thing.

Right on, Star-G. The Flyguy was on the money.


Msg 142

The new scientific terms:

repetitious tripe… ..argumentum ad nauseam… …sketchy (or dodgy)… sensationalist… ..bravado


LoL. Was that deliberately OUT-OF-CONTEXT or what??? Ironic justice only works when the quotes are actually appropriately in context. This attempt was ineffective cherry-picked nonsense.

We politely asked all to refrain from using yet another thread as a personal grandstand for preaching debunked “theories” and political diatribes. Challenging The B0rg to provide evidence? Here you go…

”Resistance is Futile”

Yep. It’s all the same old debunked junk presented ad nauseam:

… The “CO2 is not a pollutant” strawman; Check
… The “Greenhouse Gas Effect is not same as a garden greenhouse” semantic argument; Check
… The “Bash Gore as if he claims he is a scientist” ad hominem; Check
… The “rebut by taking words and phrases out of context” tactic; Check
… The “CO2 was far more abundant in the past” deflection; Check
… The “deflect into politics” tactic; Check
… The “atmosphere is saturated at the surface” deflection; Check

There are many more, but the best one is…

… The “I haven’t been refuted” lie.

Don’t think so? The propaganda is so predictably repetitious that the rebuttal(s) is(are) as easy as referencing a previous post from months ago. Check out The Collective’s message 231 of:

http://forums.plentyoffish.com/10593991datingPostpage10.aspx

Note that just about EVERY fallacy posted here “supporting” the counter-AGW stance and many more have been posted up in the past AND subsequently directly refuted with careful explanation.

Of course the best part is how, some immediately pretend that they were not refuted (see message 234 on the same thread):


Claiming to have "debunked" by repetition of the claim is not refutation.

ROFLMAO.,, and we are sure we all be hearing this false claim again shortly. Please!

Stick to the topic (yes… and we have only gone off-topic in order to demonstrate against the transgression so don’t even try the “hypocrisy” angle.) If one feels there IS a link between CRF and mean global temperature in the order of magnitude that Shaviv’s paper suggests even when subsequent measurements are not showing this relationship, provide some support. No diversions into intricacies of cloud formation, politics, specious misinformation about the use of the word “greenhouse”, “CO2 is our friend”, forgetting to mention that the Gulf of Mexico dead zone has been around long before Ethanol mandates, etc… to deflect from an inability to explain why contradictory observation isn’t falsifying the hypothesis now. Tell us all why contradictory observation isn’t enough to discount Shaviv’s hypothesis.
.
.
.
Nova… We agree, Shaviv’s work is bona fide. It’s just that his hypothesis is not supported by subsequent study.

StarG… Bang on (as usual).

Sailor … Challenge us and you have now received.
Don’t think so? The propaganda is so predictably repetitious that the rebuttal(s) is(are) as easy as referencing a previous post from months ago! Check out The Collective’s message 231 of:

http://forums.plentyoffish.com/10593991datingPostpage10.aspx


You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
(But still, rather entertaining to watch.)
 Dale 09

Joined: 5/21/2009
Msg: 154
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/3/2009 7:52:55 AM
bOrG,


I'd say that the B.S. is really getting higher on this thread.

a man can be judged by the company he keeps.

If you get your head out your but long enough to see through your visor you'd see that just because a bunch of brain washed, guilt ridden koolaid drinkers believe in what they're scared into believing by rote just doesn't work in the real world. your rant about CO2 being the culprit of all the "warm" weather doesn't hold water. especially when we're experiencing snow storms/ blizzards, and the like getting consistently early each year. And that Al Bore kept having record breaking COLD weather when he went somewhere to EVANGELIZE about how much hotter it's getting each year .

get your info straight from science and PLEASE stop being sucha typical ( trekky) geek.






Dale
 stargazer1000

Joined: 1/16/2008
Msg: 155
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/3/2009 8:21:39 AM

I'd say that the B.S. is really getting higher on this thread.


I'd agree...however, the source is up for debate.


your rant about CO2 being the culprit of all the "warm" weather doesn't hold water. especially when we're experiencing snow storms/ blizzards, and the like getting consistently early each year.


Um...where? Not where I am. And I'm a little farther north than Carolina.


If you get your head out your but long enough to see through your visor you'd see that just because a bunch of brain washed, guilt ridden koolaid drinkers believe in what they're scared into believing by rote just doesn't work in the real world. your rant about CO2 being the culprit of all the "warm" weather doesn't hold water


Ah yes, only those who don't accept AGW are capable of independent thought. Sure.

A denial is only a river in Egypt.
 Ahoytheredave

Joined: 8/29/2006
Msg: 156
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/3/2009 9:07:38 AM
In reference to the narrow spectrum of IR absorption of CO2 using an analogy of coats of paint:


Don’t think so? The propaganda is so predictably repetitious that the rebuttal(s) is(are) as easy as referencing a previous post from months ago. Check out The Collective’s message 231 of:

http://forums.plentyoffish.com/10593991datingPostpage10.aspx


So here is the claimed refutation from the cited post:


The fallacy of assuming a relatively uniform temperature and pressure gradient in the atmosphere (and one DOES when they compare it to “layers of paint”) is well known. This is the SAME fallacy of the 1901 experiment used to “refute” the GHG effect. It was wrong then. It is wrong now. It was wrong the first ten times (and that is a modest estimate) you mentioned it. It will be wrong no matter how many times people repeat this subterfuge online.

So where is the actual refuting? At no time did I claim uniform distribution of gasses in the atmosphere but you claim I did. I simply claimed at the surface, the absorption is near 100% within a few hundred feet. How is an explanation of the science propaganda?

At no time has the narrow spectrum of CO2 absorption been addressed nor the saturation levels at the surface. Again, for CO2 to absorb more IR, the wavelength of the IR would have to change. The chemical bonds of CO2 set the photon energy that CO2 absorbs. Those bonds create three narrow bands corresponding to specific wavelengths of IR. One very close analogy is to refer to the bands as colors in a similar fashion to visible light split through a prism. That is where an analogy of paint colors comes from. Repetitious claims referring to yet more repetitious claims of some phantom refutation still doesn’t refute anything.

How do you explain how a specific wavelength of IR can be absorbed by a substance that simply cannot absorb that wavelength? It really doesn’t matter how much CO2 there is, any IR wavelength outside of the absorption band passes. With CO2, that is most of the entire IR spectrum. In the bands CO2 absorbs IR, it is saturated within a few hundred feet of the earth’s surface. Experiments that use some heated object to emit broad band IR detected through a vessel containing CO2 will show attenuation of the IR as part of this broad band of IR is absorbed based on spectrum. Heated objects will radiate in all three bands of CO2 IR absorption. Without addressing specific wavelengths, the results will be deceptive leading one to conclude CO2 acts to absorb any IR. From this, one can extrapolate that more CO2 will absorb more IR. Without very sophisticated hardware, this experiement has to be conducted at elevated temperatures to avoid the IR radiated by the vessel and hardware. In reality, only one narrow band is near typical earth temperatures and it will absorb nearly 100% of the IR in that band within a few hundred feet of the surface and 0% of IR not at that wavelength. Its like painting a red car red over and over. It's still red. More red paint does not change that.

The spectral range of the radiated IR is generally broad band due primarily to water. In this lower CO2 band, the radiated IR from water is actually attenuated with most energy radiated at longer wavelengths (lower corresponding temperature). This IR passes through CO2 with no absorption at all. Being as melting ice is the big issue, we are dealing with low temperature IR radiation well below the CO2 bands. There is very little solar heating in the polar regions to heat the ice and most of that is reflected by the ice unless there is something to make the ice darker, say volcanic dust. It should be clear I am not a drone that accepts some collective consensus but I actually think for myself and try to understand the physics. After all this time, I am still awaiting explanations.

The real green house effect is primarily clouds reflecting radiated IR. Since the earth is traveling in a vacuum, the only cooling mechanism it has is radiation. The wavelength of the IR being radiated is determined by the chemical bonds of the substances involved. For earth, that is mostly water. Convection heating of the atmosphere would require that the gasses of the atmosphere be able to radiate in long wave IR to effect any cooling. CO2 can radiate heat from the earth’s atmosphere into space as can water vapor and clouds. In short, the real heat retainer is clouds just as it is on Venus.

Labeling me a denialist is an inaccurate simplification implying I favor unrestrained squandering on fossil fuels. My concern is how the record of environmental destruction so far in the name of reducing CO2 does not bode well for the even more destructive initiatives on the table. The poor science behind the AGW theory goes hand in hand with the poorly though out schemes to fix the problem. The immense profits to be gained by those who are nothing more than non-productive parasites allude to less that honest motives.

In general, more CO2 will promote more plant growth in a self regulating negative feedback reducing the pressure to destroy more rain forests. The CO2 will also help the rain forests survive all the other crap we subject them to as well as reduce the land needed to grow food. In reality, the fossil fuels are biofuels. Wind turbines are a threat to migratory birds and likely a threat to climate that farming depends on. Ethanol directly competes with food production and creates pressure to use energy optimal crops resulting in massive sea life destruction from the algae blooms. PV cells at first seem like a good idea until one compares the energy they produce with the energy needed to make and deploy them. All these fixes are good in moderation and have their place but the Inconvenient Truth is that the AGW movement is not about moderation but profit and power of the few over the many. Nothing epitomizes the hypocrisy more than soon to be billion air Al Gore flying around in a private jet raking in millions from AGW fear mongering.
 stargazer1000

Joined: 1/16/2008
Msg: 157
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/3/2009 10:23:16 AM

At no time did I claim uniform distribution of gasses in the atmosphere but you claim I did. I simply claimed at the surface, the absorption is near 100% within a few hundred feet. How is an explanation of the science propaganda?


Honestly, Dave, I'm not sure I follow the line of reasoning. 100% of what? IR? Or atmospheric CO2?
 ColonelIngus

Joined: 9/16/2007
Msg: 158
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/3/2009 12:49:15 PM

In general, more CO2 will promote more plant growth in a self regulating negative feedback reducing the pressure to destroy more rain forests.

The first part of this is statement is quite questionable... Increasing CO2 50% doesn't cause many (if any) plants to grow 50% faster, because photosynthesis rates are most often limited by the amount of light available (not CO2), as well as by the amount of water and other "nutrients" available.

Quite a lot of research has been done on this, and the growth rates of most all plants are quite insensitive to the amount of CO2 available (once you're above some minimum).
 Ahoytheredave

Joined: 8/29/2006
Msg: 159
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/3/2009 2:01:40 PM


In general, more CO2 will promote more plant growth in a self regulating negative feedback reducing the pressure to destroy more rain forests.

The first part of this is statement is quite questionable... Increasing CO2 50% doesn't cause many (if any) plants to grow 50% faster, because photosynthesis rates are most often limited by the amount of light available (not CO2), as well as by the amount of water and other "nutrients" available.


Keeping an open mind, I will look into it some more but my comments were based on direct information from green house operators who use CO2 systems to increase their crop yield. A quick search turned up this:

Bruce Kimball, a research leader of the Water Conservation Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Agriculture in Phoenix, Arizona, has pulled together nearly 800 scientific observations from around the world measuring the response of food and flower crops to elevated CO2 concentrations. The mean (average) response to a doubling of the CO2 concentration from its current level of 360 ppm is a 32 percent improvement in plant productivity, with varied manifestations in different species.
 stargazer1000

Joined: 1/16/2008
Msg: 160
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/3/2009 2:12:21 PM

Bruce Kimball, a research leader of the Water Conservation Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Agriculture in Phoenix, Arizona, has pulled together nearly 800 scientific observations from around the world measuring the response of food and flower crops to elevated CO2 concentrations. The mean (average) response to a doubling of the CO2 concentration from its current level of 360 ppm is a 32 percent improvement in plant productivity, with varied manifestations in different species.


Conversely, however, does that take into account human impacts on vegetation? Again, the deforestation of the Amazon has been a problem for years. England used to be covered in forests. Does anyone have any data regarding global forestation?

One of the interesting projections I heard about once is the long-term future for Earth's biosphere in which, ironically, carbon dioxide could become in very short supply. The likely response...grasslands. Large trees, would become a thing of the past. However, we're talking millions of years. Long after we're gone.
 AncientMuse

Joined: 8/12/2007
Msg: 161
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/3/2009 4:41:42 PM
We're pretty much slitting our own throats if we bleed the planet of its natural resources, especially trees and large plants.

A 'green' movement needs to happen and happen quickly. But it shouldn't be because of a fear of AGW. It should be because it just simply makes friggin sense.

'Smarter' technology is what's going to save our sorry asses. Not carbon tax and carbon debt payments.

Politicians kill me.
 Ahoytheredave

Joined: 8/29/2006
Msg: 162
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/3/2009 8:58:25 PM

however, does that take into account human impacts on vegetation?

Like burning the rain forest in the third world to grow fuel crops in demand because of ethanol mandates designed to reduce fossil fuel use?

Much of the central US used to be grass lands where any trees that tried to grow were stomped out of existence by the bison. The bison were killed off to control the native Americans and forests now grow. Some were planted by the thousands by people like me and some are wild. This tree growth has been noticeable within my lifetime. I have not been able to confirm but have read that the US has more trees now than when the Europeans first arrived. I have visited areas of the plains pictured around the early 1900's without a single tree on the horizon. Now the same areas are more trees than grassland.

Addressing clouds as a green house impact, consider the surface water retained in countless ponds and reservoirs for use in irrigation etc. Mean humidity levels have increased as a result. This has the potential to impact temperatures when tied to cloud formation.


One of the interesting projections I heard about once is the long-term future for Earth's biosphere in which, ironically, carbon dioxide could become in very short supply.

It is this trend, that goes well back in history, that I have mentioned. Most CO2 has been sequestered in rock and over time, plants have had to adapt to shrinking levels of CO2. Our use of fossil fuels only slightly turns the clock back as the CO2 trapped in rock will stay. Only in rare volcanic events is the rock sequestered CO2 released.


A 'green' movement needs to happen and happen quickly. But it shouldn't be because of a fear of AGW. It should be because it just simply makes friggin sense.

Absolutely.
I spent years as a scout leader teaching environmental responsibility. The long term belongs to our offspring. Politics are transient but traditions of morality will be passed down for generations.
 wvwaterfall

Joined: 1/17/2007
Msg: 163
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/3/2009 10:26:21 PM

Since the wind does not blow constantly, a full capacity fuel based generator network needs to be maintained with an expanded transmission grid to collect power from the disperse turbines.


This caught my eye, as I recently learned of an effort to resolve this issue through a new form of large scale, high capacity battery:

http://www.loe.org/shows/segments.htm?programID=09-P13-00044&segmentID=2


I have to admit I voted against him and certainly did not favor his deficit spending but he did end the morass of the Carter years and ended the cold war. This ended new production of nuclear weapons, freed Eastern Europe and started a long economic growth period in the US and the world. I agree, there was way too much conspicuous consumption. The current president, like Reagan, was elected for his charisma but is clearly bringing back the morass of the Carter years and makes Reagan deficit spending appear paltry. His total lack of resolve in dealing with the world’s bad boys appears to be leading to a new nuclear arms race among terrorist states. I don’t recall Reagan’s cabinet being full of tax cheats. I hope Obama doesn’t bring back disco.


Without dragging us too far off topic too long, I'll just say that there is evidence the Soviet Union would have collapsed on its own regardless of anything Reagan did, and he empowered some of the bad boys we've had to deal with since. The two issues I most hold against him, though, were his total scorn of renewable energy research and leading the Republican Party away from its traditional position of fiscal restraint. Ever since, the closest we've come to a fiscally conservative President was Clinton, and that's more of a "least worst" situation than any real movement toward responsible budget management.

I don't honestly recall cheating on taxes as the most prominent sin of Reagan cabinet members either, but do distinctly recall providing arms to terrorists. I think I'd prefer a tax cheat.

And I agree, I hope disco is forever gone.

Back on topic, I'm heartened to see at least some more serious discussion of the science behind climate change theory here, with a correspondingly smaller quantity of name calling, although once again, that's like comparing deficit budgets of recent decades.

As long time readers of the forums here know, I choose to believe the collective wisdom of the peer reviewed science supporting the human role in a warming planet. Like most citizens, I don't have the scientific background to do my own data collection and analysis, so I track the topic by looking at both reports published in respected journals and the reactions to those reports by those who do have sufficient credentials to back up their analyses.

I recognize that there are those who are inclined NOT to believe any government funded scientist, or for some other reason are convinced there is no basis to believe human activity could have any significant impact on climate. I honestly don't expect to change those folks' minds, just as they aren't likely to change mine, at least not until they publish their own theory and we can all see how it stands up to scientific scrutiny rather than the jury of public opinion.

It seems a certain number of us are predisposed one way or the other on this issue. I'll admit that as much as I try to focus on the results of the scientific method, it's also true that on a gut level I have always been sensitive to the impacts we all create as the result of our actions, on each other AND on the environment. We'll never completely eliminate those impacts, but we certainly can harm less and be more of a benefit to society and the planet. That's about as close as I come to meriting the "religious" accusations sometimes thrown my way. I do believe as sentient beings with the capacity to understand the consequences of our actions, we all have a moral imperative to do more good than harm in the course of our lives.

And just as I admit my own predisposition, I recognize there are others who harbor an innate distrust of ANY movement that could in any way limit what they perceive to be their basic right to do whatever they please. Whether the issue is gun control, seat belt laws, gay marriage, smoking bans, school prayer or greenhouse gas controls, the same folks can often be heard bemoaning 'yet another' attempt by 'them' to force them to support a cause they don't believe in, and thus something is being 'taken' from them.

So while I may be convinced that my perspective is more worthy than that of those who cherry pick interpretations of the Constitution and/or Bible to justify more self centered philosophies, I'd be willing to let both groups cancel each other out IF we could all agree to focus on actual science to determine policy. Not one theory by one scientist, but science the way science should be done, through replication, scrutiny, experiments, and repeated analysis from every angle.

Anyone else with me?

The other Dave.
 novascotialass

Joined: 2/4/2007
Msg: 164
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/4/2009 3:47:26 AM
With you all the way on that one, and I think it's starting to happen (focus being more on the real science than the sensationalist claims by both sides).

Typically in these he said/she said debates the truth lies in the middle. I'm sure that's the case in regard to the debate over anthropogenic/natural causes for the warming we've seen over the last century.
 stargazer1000

Joined: 1/16/2008
Msg: 165
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/4/2009 6:55:49 AM

I recognize that there are those who are inclined NOT to believe any government funded scientist, or for some other reason are convinced there is no basis to believe human activity could have any significant impact on climate.


Actually, that's an interesting point because a lot of funding for research comes from government coffers, and yet a couple of governments have actually been philosophically opposed to the concept of AGW. So clearly the science is not actually serving any political agenda .

Now that the green movement has developed some traction, the politicians are getting onto the bandwagon. However, if we're looking at "political agendas" as being behind the green movement, it's actually quite the opposite.
 Ahoytheredave

Joined: 8/29/2006
Msg: 166
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/4/2009 12:06:43 PM

This caught my eye, as I recently learned of an effort to resolve this issue through a new form of large scale, high capacity battery:

In reference to molten metal batteries, these have been researched for well over 30 years. All one has to do is find the most stable salts made of the most volatile elements and you have the ingredients for very high energy batteries. Research in sodium chloride batteries nearly 40 years ago produced prototypes of batteries in the megawatt hour range that could be easily handled by a forklift. The idea was that such a battery could power a skyscraper off grid during peak periods and when wind generators were not able to produce power. The problem was that such batteries could take the sky scraper off grid permanently if they faulted. Consider that you have two very reactive substances in very close proximity at very high temperatures in a sealed high pressure vessel. Its a bomb. Structures where the reactants were separated fuel cell style have been investigated as well but now you need to transport molten metal and very high pressure high temperature liquefied gas. In the end, its makes more sense to use a more conventional fuel cell but efficiency suffers. Efficiency can be regained but you're back to high pressure and high temperature.

A solution that makes the most sense to me is metal air batteries without recharging capability. The used metal oxide in the battery would be returned to base metal and oxygen in bulk and the batteries reconstructed. Shelf life would be very long and they could be used in vehicles. Although the energy density is very high, they are not capable of instantaneous release of the energy. Many metals are environmentally inert with varying degrees of fire risk depending on the reactivity of the metal.


I recognize that there are those who are inclined NOT to believe any government funded scientist, or for some other reason are convinced there is no basis to believe human activity could have any significant impact on climate.


Actually, that's an interesting point because a lot of funding for research comes from government coffers, and yet a couple of governments have actually been philosophically opposed to the concept of AGW. So clearly the science is not actually serving any political agenda .


Neither of these exaggerations is accurate. As an example, the government funded research into Iraq’s WMDs. In general, people will do what they are paid to do regardless of who pays.

The history of man would not be so full of war and destruction if it were not for power given to or taken by governments. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
 stargazer1000

Joined: 1/16/2008
Msg: 167
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/4/2009 12:15:10 PM

Neither of these exaggerations is accurate.


That is your characterization so is no more accurate than the "exaggerations" you accuse us of.


As an example, the government funded research into Iraq’s WMDs. In general, people will do what they are paid to do regardless of who pays.


Unless, of course, their research is aimed in an opposite direction. Remember, there are reported to me more scientists supportive of AGW and it has been actively pursued, yet are you going to tell me that Bush was always in support of "global warming?" Really?Because it took this government forever to start to support AGW...it could even be argued they still haven't.


The history of man would not be so full of war and destruction if it were not for power given to or taken by governments. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.


That's a truism and is otherwise totally irrelevant.
 b0rg

Joined: 12/14/2007
Msg: 168
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/4/2009 11:09:21 PM
StarG…
Lol. Right on!

Sailor…
Come on. What did we say? Some will pretend they were not debunked AGAIN… It’s getting too easy to demonstrate this. In fact, we will likely only have to refer you back to this post in the future. Just answer the question, Tell us all why contradictory observation isn’t enough to discount Shaviv’s hypothesis..
.
.
.
The details…

Msg 155




I’d say that the B.S. is really getting higher on this thread.

I'd agree...however, the source is up for debate.

Lol!!!. Right on, StarG! It’s currently piled 69 inches high but holding steady (must be some kind of anthropogenic forcing.) Fortunately The Collective tubes filter such malodorous posts. False accusations along with low brow insults… reactions like these are evidence that some have no legitimate rebuttal and are a testimony to the integrity of the those they attempt to disparage. Resistance is truly futile.


Msg 156

So where is the actual refuting? At no time did I claim uniform distribution of gasses in the atmosphere but you claim I did. I simply claimed at the surface, the absorption is near 100% within a few hundred feet. How is an explanation of the science propaganda?

RoFl. Nice try.

Practically anyone in the audience sees the back-pedaling in that. Since you ask, we will explain it to you once more:

You consistently ignore the fact that the atmosphere has a pressure temperature gradient by conveniently mentioning only the incidental that saturation of absorption occurs near the surface. Your implication has been that adding more CO2 will not make a difference (all viewers can find that in the links provided in that post.) Your intent is quite clear. No amount of coy, “that’s not what I meant” is going to take that away. You simply base your whole “The Greenhouse Gas Effect is flawed” theory on that false premise.

As far as propaganda… Its equivalent to posting “only 3 grams of fat per serving” while neglecting to mention that a serving is 3.5 grams. There’s “explaining”, and then there is “deception.” Propaganda falls in the latter as it is all about ignoring the important facts, and focusing on pointless factoids and how they relate to the situation. THAT is how it is propaganda.

As someone experience in airborne FLIR technology, we are pretty sure you have come across the adiabatic lapse rate. You know, the one that is typically 6 deg C per Km? Remember?

Essentially, the greenhouse gas effect raises the effective radiation altitude to about, oh around 3 km. Adding more GHG would raise that effective radiation altitude. If the atmosphere was isobaric (this is the “coats of paint” fallacy) the rise in effective altitude wouldn’t matter as the temperature radiated at 0 km or 3 km would be the same (don’t be taking any of this out of context now in an attempt to rebut…).

There is the “refuting” once more. The “coats of paint” deception is debunked. Any more specious denials?


Msg 156

One very close analogy is to refer to the bands as colors in a similar fashion to visible light split through a prism. That is where an analogy of paint colors comes from. Repetitious claims referring to yet more repetitious claims of some phantom refutation still doesn’t refute anything.

Lol. This is just trying to cover-up by trying to redefine what you meant by “coats of paint”. There are clear reference links to just exactly what you mean in msg 231 of:

http://forums.plentyoffish.com/10593991datingPostpage10.aspx

The whole point you’ve always been making is that additional CO2 is ineffective since only the first couple of hundred feet of it matters (yes, what you are saying.) Whether it absorbs 1% or 100% of the outgoing spectrum is not the issue (and no one has been implying that it absorbs anything outside of its bands). The salient truth is that you are speciously over-simplifying the mechanism.

You maintain that more CO2 can’t make any more difference as in “more red paint won’t make a painted surface and redder”. (There, is THAT succinct enough for you?) In essence the “coats of paint” analogy DOES NOT address the most relevant nature of the GHG effect. It is speciously misleading and repeating over and over again after direct refutation is only proving one has absolutely no foundation.

Pretending that you haven’t been refuted again, isn’t removing the fact that your contrarian reasoning has been debunked in the past and in the present.


Msg 156

How do you explain how a specific wavelength of IR can be absorbed by a substance that simply cannot absorb that wavelength?

Lol. This old straw man again?

Considering that practically no one who has been discussing this topic, and especially not The B0rg, has been saying that CO2 (the “substance” that you are implying so don’t say that you “never said CO2” now) absorbs energy outside of its absorption ranges, why would anyone have to answer that?

You are merely misrepresenting the position of an opponent in order to decry it: The classic straw man argument.


Msg 156

Its like painting a red car red over and over. It's still red. More red paint does not change that.

Can one still pretend that they aren’t emphasizing the wrong points on purpose? Re-read the part about adiabatic lapse rate.


Msg 156

There is very little solar heating in the polar regions to heat the ice and most of that is reflected by the ice unless there is something to make the ice darker, say volcanic dust. It should be clear I am not a drone that accepts some collective consensus but I actually think for myself and try to understand the physics. After all this time, I am still awaiting explanations.

Not a drone? Implying that one’s opponent doesn’t think for themselves?… Lol. Couldn’t resist the irrelevant denigration, huh? Fantastic! That is another testimony to the resilience of The Collective’s argument. (As the insulter is betraying a self-realized unsupportable position by resorting to irrelevant name calling and denigration.)

Direct heating from solar radiation is the only mechanism that can cause ice in the polar regions to change phase? There are no long days with more direct sunlight above the Arctic Circle, or below the Antarctic Circle over the course of an Earth year? We, and everyone else are awaiting explanation… still.


Msg 156

The real green house effect is primarily clouds reflecting radiated IR. Since the earth is traveling in a vacuum, the only cooling mechanism it has is radiation. The wavelength of the IR being radiated is determined by the chemical bonds of the substances involved. For earth, that is mostly water. Convection heating of the atmosphere would require that the gasses of the atmosphere be able to radiate in long wave IR to effect any cooling. CO2 can radiate heat from the earth’s atmosphere into space as can water vapor and clouds. In short, the real heat retainer is clouds just as it is on Venus.

Has anyone stated or implied that the Earth transfers energy back out to space by any other mechanism other than radiation? Come on. That’s just another disguised straw man. We do beam energy from your planet to run our air-conditioning aboard the Cube via some proprietary B0rgian technology but it’s insignificant (really, it is.)

Venus? Incidentally, the Greenhouse Gas Effect model calculates the surface temperature of Venus pretty accurately. It calculates Martian surface temperatures accurately too. It must just be all a “coincidence.”


Msg 156

Labeling me a denialist is an inaccurate simplification implying I favor unrestrained squandering on fossil fuels.

Nope. You are being addressed as a denier because of behaviour very clearly indicative of the denial camp. This includes the consistent repetition of, but is not exclusive to:

… The “CO2 is not a pollutant” strawman
… The “Greenhouse Gas Effect is not same as a garden greenhouse” semantic argument
… The “Bash Gore as if he claims he is a scientist” ad hominem
… The “take words and phrases out of context” strawman
… The “CO2 was far more abundant in the past” deflection
… The “deflect into politics” tactic
… The “atmosphere is saturated in the first 300 feet” deflection
The “I haven’t been refuted” lie.

Inaccurate simplification? Nope. Unlike “coats of paint” (red or any other colour), it’s quite a precise and comprehensive (Go ahead, try and deny that there is no evidence of one doing all of the above.)

Deniers have a habit of dodging when asked to answer direct questions. What they tend to do is to jump from one deflection to another whenever they are asked to explain their position. We will let the audience decide when and where that happens. We see it here since one has deflected away from… Tell us all why contradictory observation isn’t enough to discount Shaviv’s hypothesis.

The Collective is very clear and direct to the point. If we wished to accuse you of supporting unrestrained squandering of fossil fuels, we would have said, “You are a supporter of unrestrained squandering of fossil fuels”.

At any rate, whether one is motivated by EXXON dollars, or by a need to seek revenge on not being treated with elevated reverence they feel they deserve, or by whatever is not the topic. The answer we seek still is ON TOPIC and is… Tell us all why contradictory observation isn’t enough to discount Shaviv’s hypothesis. (We only discuss these other things because one has specifically challenged us with false claims that they have not been promoting misconceptions.)


Msg 156

My concern is how the record of environmental destruction so far in the name of reducing CO2 does not bode well for the even more destructive initiatives on the table. The poor science behind the AGW theory goes hand in hand with the poorly though out schemes to fix the problem. The immense profits to be gained by those who are nothing more than non-productive parasites allude to less that honest motives.

This is disingenuous at best (see how clearly The Collective states comments?) You may well have that concern, but that is not the issue here. This is about climate science and not mitigation strategies. Coming here to post up the same old misinformation year after year isn’t about whether you have concern for the environment or not. When people do that, they are only promoting dissent regarding the science. When the “reasons” behind the contrary views are shown to be false yet the misinformation continues, it is proof of an agenda to promote dispute where there isn’t any.

Poor science? ROFL! Everybody is welcome to an opinion.


Msg 156

In general, more CO2 will promote more plant growth in a self regulating negative feedback reducing the pressure to destroy more rain forests. The CO2 will also help the rain forests survive all the other crap we subject them to as well as reduce the land needed to grow food. In reality, the fossil fuels are biofuels. Wind turbines are a threat to migratory birds and likely a threat to climate that farming depends on. Ethanol directly competes with food production and creates pressure to use energy optimal crops resulting in massive sea life destruction from the algae blooms. PV cells at first seem like a good idea until one compares the energy they produce with the energy needed to make and deploy them. All these fixes are good in moderation and have their place but the Inconvenient Truth is that the AGW movement is not about moderation but profit and power of the few over the many. Nothing epitomizes the hypocrisy more than soon to be billion air Al Gore flying around in a private jet raking in millions from AGW fear mongering.

Hmm… a new theory… rapid CO2 rise will promote a self regulating negative feedback… OK. Open up a new thread on that and I am sure gentleman human’s like WVWaterfall or Froggy would be happy to discuss that with you.

Of course, the topic here is CRF and its contribution to the mean global temperature. It’s not about the politics or the efficacy of mitigation schemes. Speaking of which, you have again deflected away from answering the question:

Tell us all why contradictory observation isn’t enough to discount Shaviv’s hypothesis.
.
.
.
StarG…
Lol. Right on!

Sailor…
Come on. What did we say? Some will pretend they were not debunked AGAIN… It’s getting too easy to demonstrate this. In fact, we will likely only have to refer you back to this post in the future. Just answer the question, Tell us all why contradictory observation isn’t enough to discount Shaviv’s hypothesis..

You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
 Ahoytheredave

Joined: 8/29/2006
Msg: 169
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/5/2009 8:59:36 AM
Leaving all the personal attacks aside, let's examine this specific issue:

You consistently ignore the fact that the atmosphere has a pressure temperature gradient by conveniently mentioning only the incidental that saturation of absorption occurs near the surface. Your implication has been that adding more CO2 will not make a difference (all viewers can find that in the links provided in that post.) Your intent is quite clear. No amount of coy, “that’s not what I meant” is going to take that away. You simply base your whole “The Greenhouse Gas Effect is flawed” theory on that false premise.

At no time did I say or imply "that is what I meant."
If the earth can only cooled through radiation, then why is the temperature of the atmosphere cooler as the altitude is higher? That would indicate it is through radiant cooling from the atmosphere itself. We know nitrogen and argon don't radiate in the low energy IR spectrum and oxygen only has one narrow band still too far up in the IR spectrum to do much cooling. That leaves water and one band of CO2 cooling the upper atmosphere. Being as the lowest band of CO2 is not that low, the very cold upper atmosphere must be cooled by water vapor. Its broad band radiation is all the way down into the radio spectrum. The real insulator is not some narrow "color" diffuser like CO2 but an IR reflector - clouds. The issue of the thread is what drives the cloud formation. From recent correlation of solar activity and earth temperatures, it would seem the cloud precipitation effect from solar activity is more than previously expected.

This is about climate science and not mitigation strategies.

When discussing the motives for tainted climate science, all one has the do is examine the politics of mitigation strategies. That directly addresses the "filter" for this:

Tell us all why contradictory observation isn’t enough to discount Shaviv’s hypothesis.


That is another testimony to the resilience of The Collective’s argument.

Volume and repetitious chanting does not make good science.


How do you explain how a specific wavelength of IR can be absorbed by a substance that simply cannot absorb that wavelength?

Lol. This old straw man again?

Yet again, dismissing the very argument concerning CO2. It is a narrow band IR absorber/radiator. IR radiated from the earth's surface that is not at this specific wavelength cannot be absorbed by CO2. CO2 is completely transparent the IR outside this band. That is the vast majority of the IR spectrum in the range of the earth's surface temperatures. It does not matter how much CO2 you have, it still will not absorb IR outside of this narrow band. The only way CO2 can be heated outside of this IR band is through contact and then it becomes a radiant cooler in that band only.

Water is a whole different picture as it can absorb and radiate IR in a broad spectrum. When precipitated into clouds, it will reflect radiated IR across the spectrum. The radiant cooling of water vapor leaves it super cooled in the upper atmosphere. This is where ionization or particulates from solar activity come into play and thus the subject of the thread. This precipitation into clouds will impact temperatures.

Those with a financial stake and reputation tied to the AGW band wagon have a lot to loose with such "distractions" from their movement. As an example, it could impact Gore's investment by billions of dollars. No collective can allow such individual thinking. It's like introducing a computer virus in the subspace network that keeps drones in line.
 stargazer1000

Joined: 1/16/2008
Msg: 170
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/5/2009 12:03:39 PM
Actually, Dave, something was bothering me about your comments regarding CO2 being a narrowband IR aborber/radiator.

Truth is, aren't all elements are exactly that. Otherwise, they would have vastly elongated signatures in a spectrum instead of narrow absorption and emissions features. And yet, have you not indicated that other gases such as methane are far more efficient as aborbers? As for water vapour, yes that makes sense as a broadband absorber, however, even its efficiency is going to be at a peak level.

We've brought up the example of Venus and, while I agree that planets are hard to compare to one another, we have discussed IR absorption by the clouds of Venus as being the likely culprit. Astronomers are more inclined to blame the 98 per cent CO2 atmosphere. Especially since it's cloud deck, in addition to being quite thick, is also comprised of sulfur compounds. Sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere acts as a shield against solar heating. In the case of Venus, it gives it an albedo of .73 or over 70 per cent reflective of the sunlight it receives.

In comparison, Earth is only about 30 per cent reflective. If you could stand on Venus, daytime would be equivalent to a very cloudy afternoon.With it's slow rotation, it's day lasts longer than its year. And yet the nighttime side is the same temperature as its daytime side.
 Ahoytheredave

Joined: 8/29/2006
Msg: 171
view profile
History
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/5/2009 1:55:59 PM

Truth is, aren't all elements are exactly that. Otherwise, they would have vastly elongated signatures in a spectrum instead of narrow absorption and emissions features. And yet, have you not indicated that other gases such as methane are far more efficient as aborbers? As for water vapour, yes that makes sense as a broadband absorber, however, even its efficiency is going to be at a peak level.

The absorption/radiation energy levels (wavelengths) of photons are fixed to individual chemical bonds, not some whole molecule. Some of these bonds are between molecules as well. These and others react with a greater range of elasticity and are thus broadband. There are some good animations on the web. Water and methane are both wideband absorbers. Don't forget the low energy hydrogen bonding between water molecules.

How reflective are clouds of surfur dioxide to IR and at what wavelengths? Since the heating and cooling are both impacted by reflectivity and the wavelength of the light both ways, the model needs to take this into account. The IR source and temperature relative to the reflectivity of the clouds is very important as all of this needs to be taken into account. Simply because much of the high energy visible light is reflected, that does not tell us how much IR is reflected inward. Nothing else is going to cool venus.

If one were to look at earth's temperature range, it would seem to completely fall within the lower broadband IR absorption/radiation band of water. If the temperature rises, the rate of radiation across this band increases with increasing density of shorter wavelength (higher energy) IR. Which clouds are ice crystals and which are water droplets? That impacts reflectivity and absorption/radiation wavelemgths. This would also have a rough relationship to altitude of the clouds and thus the nature of the precipitation causes to form the clouds from super cooled vapor.

With an atmosphere 92 times as dense as earth, convection currents on venus would likely distribute heat quite well. Do we know the nature of "weather" on venus?
 Dale 09

Joined: 5/21/2009
Msg: 172
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/6/2009 8:20:44 PM
Dave,

Would the residue of Diesel and other fuels,including rockets..., help cause the effects with solar wavicles ( particles&waves of enegy and debris) in the cooling & warming of the seasonal/ cyclical weather of the Earth?

that is to say, the "dirt" in solar system/atmosphere of the Earth and the planets by the heavy semi-metalic elements in the clouds.

In diesel, the fuel is not known for its clean burning ability. as well as most of any of the fuels that are in use today. so those atoms/molecules that make up that smoke deflect/ reflect heat away/back to Earth?




Dale
Page 7 of 7 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
 
Show ALL Forums  > Science/philosophy  > MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?