776877
| | Joined: 7/7/2009
Msg: 326 | |
| | The California RE marketPage 14 of 18 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18) | ^^^
Oh I know, I've already dealt with that one too. I had an opportunity to either pay taxes on $50K or take a paper inventory loss one year...needless to say that the lending folks only looked at box 12 on the return. It didn't matter that all said and done my income was slightly higher that year than prior but box 12 was ALL they would look at.
A friend of mine who owns two homes was told that in this day he wouldn't qualify for even a single home loan on his income. He's glad he bought ten years ago as you can imagine.
I guess my point is that it makes no difference how low the house prices get to/how many foreclosures a bank has on the books they just won't lend...at least to me right now :-) | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 7/20/2009 7:47:27 PM | 776 doesn't it strike one as odd there are homes that are sitting idle, essentially dead/toxic assets that someone like yourself is willing to take on at some price? BTW I was watching a Financial News cable show today and they had a guest who confirmed the self-employed, without regard to income, was the kiss of death for mortgage seekers.
My mortgage lady told me 4 years ago she was handling perhaps 6 mortgages at a time worth $1M each, with little or no documentation, now she has 5 with an average value of $150K each and a documentation nightmare. The pendulum has swung to the other side. | |
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776877
| | Joined: 7/7/2009
Msg: 328 | |
| The California RE market
Posted: 7/21/2009 1:43:05 AM | A RE agent friend told me that a full year before the 'crunch' really hit that banks had already started to play hardball on the foreclosures and bank owned properties...she said in retrospect that she should have realized something was afoot.
As someone posted elsewhere the number of homes in foreclosure is actually higher than the number we see reported, that banks are keeping it quiet as more news of defaults will drive the prices down even further. A home I was really interested in and that I did a lot of research on turns out to have an owner who hasn't paid his mortgage since January but the bank hasn't even filed to get him out. If this is stuff that I can uncover with little to no effort it makes you wonder just what is really going on here.
Clearly the banks do not want to lend/sell properties that they think 'could' be worth more in a few years and they are probably just going to hold out for more Govt cash(Both Bush Sr and Jr threw kajillions of dollars at them given the chance) or better economic times.
When I tell people that I am putting down 50% and still can't get a loan they shake their heads...as I am. In this day and age with 10% unemployment(and rising) and people being laid off everywhere I wonder what it'll take for the stigma of being self-employed to disappear, no job has been safe from 'cradle to grave' for over 40 years, maybe even longer. | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 7/21/2009 6:31:10 AM | Is Bush still president where you live? That darn Bush Sr and Jr are still in power in some parts of America, who'd a think they were this devious?
Your problem, our problem, is 100 M Americans who otherwise jump out of bed every morning wanting to do good for themselves and as a byproduct for the country are now all sitting around waiting for a community organizer who has never held a job, never met a payroll, and likely hates business, to figure out our fate. What banker wants to make headlines by actually assessing risk and being caught wrong exposing themselves to the tender mercies of Barrack, Rahm, Barbra and Nancy. | |
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776877
| | Joined: 7/7/2009
Msg: 330 | |
| The California RE market
Posted: 7/21/2009 10:59:43 AM | Ahh the slippery slope of a political argument ;-) I'll make a sharp turn and avoid it since the original post is about the RE market.
I'm just going to wait it out, the market won't rebound for a long time so if I'm patient, as I have been so far, it'll all work out...I hope! :-0 | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 7/21/2009 4:18:09 PM | http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN2050831320090721
current news on the status of California's''''' finances | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 7/24/2009 12:25:52 AM | Thanks Jack. :-)
Ran Man -- Congrads. on your new home. :-)
77 -- about self-employee being the kiss of death...
Do a dba as an investor (77 real estate investments. :-p). You might even get a tax write-off in the process 'and' one business can loan another business money). Your 50% will speak louder then (afterall you already have a different business investing in you). *wink* | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 8/3/2009 6:59:05 PM | And bumping my own thread...:-p
Does anyone else see a leveling off in the current RE market or my eyes playing tricks on me? *shock*
September, September, September...does anyone know what occurs in September as far as the Calif. RE market? (yes there could be a prize attached to this question).  | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 8/3/2009 8:07:58 PM | | I'm not sure about the leveling off... but summer months tend to be the most active. The next few months will let us know how level we have become. | |
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Posted: 8/6/2009 6:34:46 PM | Here's a newpaper article of interest on CA real estate:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-default31-2009jul31,0,173542.story
(Cut and pasted in part):
About 1 in 10 Californians with a home loan is now in default, and there's growing evidence that the mortgage meltdown is spreading to commercial real estate.
The home mortgage delinquency rate -- the percentage of borrowers who have missed several payments and are in the first stage of foreclosure -- climbed in June to 9.5% in California and 9.9% in Los Angeles County, according to First American CoreLogic.
The staggering number of home mortgage defaults probably will lead to large numbers of foreclosures through at least this year, housing experts say.
"It's probably a given we'll see a high number of foreclosures in the next couple of quarters due to the level of defaults plus the recession and jobs lost. There's plenty more pain to come," said Andrew LePage, an analyst for real estate research firm MDA DataQuick of San Diego. | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 8/6/2009 6:54:14 PM | | Mermaid another bad headline of the day was from Deutschebank that predicted 50% of homeowners would be upside down by 2011. The concerning part of that estimate to me was it lacked demographic analysis (too many boomers owning and needing to sell, too few echo boomers with ability to buy) and continued bad news in unemployment which may have been input to the estimate. | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 8/7/2009 6:45:12 AM | | It kinda reminds me of the 7 years good 7 years bad cycle...I've been in construction, the front end of RE, for 29 years and seen it go up and down over and over. This time is worse, but not so much worse that we can't recover. Afterall, someone made money from selling their home and RE agents made off with a bundle too. There's money somewhere and it's not all squandered. | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 8/7/2009 12:02:41 PM | Gogetter -- I went to an open house (foreclosure) and it was this gorgeous home with a drive way lined with cypress trees. The home had a tennis court, etc. I asked who owned the home and was told it was a real estate lender. *wink*
Golfcoast -- isn't it already over 1/2 of the populaltion that is upside down in their homes? :unsure:
Many boomers held rentals and as the economy began to slide, boomers at retirement age began selling (some predicting the RE bust others simply to retire). This placed more homes on the market initially. Generation X is less educated home buyers (many apparently as well do not read the fine print when it comes to creative home loans). That is what they get for trusting a man that was more focused on his wenis over that of the American public (good old Bill C. and his creative loans).
That said -- I'm part of generation X (barely -- but still considered in this category). 
I would have thought that at least 2/3rds of Americans are upside down in their homes (those holding loans anyway)? | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 8/7/2009 2:54:01 PM | | Actually I believe the interpretation of my Deutschebank news is 11% of loans are non-performing now with 50% in 2011. The question is why? how can that be? The explanation is hiding in a myriad of factors like job loss, a big surge in ARM rate increase, i.e., loans placed at teaser rates in 2005-6 at 2% moving to market rates, people running out of savings that cause them eventually to keep carrying a house worth less than the loan value. | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 8/8/2009 6:52:42 AM | | It really wasn't that long ago when people were making oodles of money selling their homes in CA. A lot of people made out wellbefore the colapse. We will recover. | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 8/8/2009 8:41:26 AM | Don't remember where but one of the Sunday talking head shows, a real estate guy predicted that 50% of all financed property in the U.S., residential as well as commercial will be in default in the next 2 years. The reason why, is we are having a jobless recovery, which is the worst kind, because it means the the we have not hit bottom yet.
A jobless recovery or jobless growth is a phrase used by economists to describe the recovery from a recession which does not produce strong growth in employment. The phrase originated in the early 1990s in the United States, to describe the economic recovery at the end of President George H.W. Bush's term; it came back into use during the early 2000s.
Prior to the 1990s, most economic recoveries led to employment increases relatively rapidly. However, starting with the 1991 recession the employment recoveries have been historically slow.
Economists are still divided about the causes and cures of a jobless recovery: some argue that increased productivity through automation and robotics has allowed economic growth without reducing unemployment. Other economists [1] suggest that jobless recoveries stem from structural change in the labor market, leading to unemployment as workers change jobs or industries. | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 8/8/2009 9:29:01 AM | In a jobless recovery, GDP increases while employment and/or gross aggregate wages do not. Where does that increased money go? Where is it reinvested?
A jobless recovery is one in which income is redisributed from the poor, working class, and middle class to the rich--who invest it elsewhere. In this one, they won't even lend it to us. | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 8/8/2009 5:44:02 PM | Are we saying, without the class struggle rhetoric, that employers can find alternate or substitute sources of labor at significantly lower prices elsewhere, I mean the total demand in the world has not disappeared in fact it's increased. Therefore we have a pricing problem in a macro sense.
Why would a lender lend to someone without a gig that could pay it back, that's silly.
Money goes where it's wanted and stays where it's appreciated. If funds are avoiding you, maybe it's you. Societies that make redistribution choices rather than productivity choices have these discussions eventually, usually belatedly. | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 8/8/2009 11:23:56 PM | If funds are avoiding you, maybe it's you.
That's why I'm careful where I shop. Local businesses tend to appreciate the money I spend there so much more. | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 8/9/2009 7:21:45 AM | | ^^^excellent...also by domestically made products as much as possible :-D | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 8/9/2009 7:46:57 AM | An interesting argument, buy locally from domestic producers whenever possible. A couple of questions I'd like to know, just so I can input this sentiment to domestic strategy sessions:
1. How much more (%)would you pay to buy same product from a local store? Let's say Ace hardware vs. Home Depot.
2. How much more (%) would you pay for a household item, let's say a toilet repair kit, made in China vs. made in USA?
3. Last question, list as many things wrong with your argument above as you can (all the good free ideas have been taken, there are some negatives to your choice). | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 8/9/2009 9:31:09 AM | GC, from my perspective, for instance, I chose the local lumberyard over Lowes and Home Depot with a $250 difference on a $6500 bid package. The local lumber yard knows how to deal with contractors. The Home Depot and Lowes still don't.
As far as products from China vs. the USA, you still get what you pay for. I prefer things to last. I think that is a better use of money. I will admit, even though I do own several Ford vehicles, I also own a Toyota.
Even buying domestic isn't all pure. Ford has work done outside of our borders, for instance. Toyota employs a lot of us here.
I don't really know who owns Coca Cola, but it's seems a bit wishy washy to me there.
Things do get a little convoluted, but when there is a clear choice, I try to buy domestically and locally. | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 8/9/2009 9:41:11 AM | Mr Gogetter with all respect, you've switched the question from a pure cost to a value or total cost of ownership discussion.
I want to hear, all things equal, how much you will pay for local and domestic, no other assumptions.
And you need to tell me hat is wrong with the argument after normalizing for equal value. | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 8/9/2009 10:03:16 AM | My bike is a Yamaha Road Star, a 1600cc cruiser for $12,000 new compared to say a Harley Road King of comparable size for around twice as much. Yes, I took cost into consideration, this was 10 years ago. But also the quality was much better, I know for a fact mine has not broken down, other than flat tires, I have had no problems, and it has been my main transportation for a lot of that time, as it is now. I also know many Harley owners who mainly took them out on weekends or a yearly long ride, which did have some major issues. I also, being involved in the motorcycle industry, have traveled to Taiwan and China to factories. I designed chrome parts for Harley's with the Jack Daniel's label. I only had to tool the graphic side of the parts because they were already making these parts for Harley... Derby covers and so on. I will say that almost all of the after market products I have purchased for my Yamaha is American made (Made in the USA)
In China I went to a Home Depot convention, where a company I designed products for, (A Chinese company here in the US) Was making products for Home Depot in their factories in China. Eventually Home Depot was only their to find factories to make their own merchandise directly with the factories. Same with Wall-Mart.
Supply and demand. We can not compete with Chinese labor. Especially with our unions and regulations. The consumer keeps beating up the supplier for cheaper stuff, forcing them to go somewhere else to have it manufactured.
I know this isn't answering your question GC, but just something I wanted to share. | |
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| The California RE market
Posted: 8/9/2009 10:31:13 AM | Jack I'm with you. The only reason I ride/rode Harleys is they can be fixed, even by me. When I rode often I'd see HD guys preparing for Laughlin like it was a trip to Alaska by canoe. A trip to Sturgis was an exercise in coordinating tow vehicles and trailers. Again I opted for the HD because I could fix it, being as complex as a 2 cylinder John Deere tractor, not much electronically (my worst fear).
But you are completely correct, we've pretty well given our mfg. away, thrown it away. I jabber a lot about my work w/o being specific but I was a pioneer in processes and systems that attempted to keep our products competitive. I got resistance from the unions, from government, and generally an anti-intellectual mindset that works against us. Later, because we had completely walked away from a belief we could compete locally, to helping American companies go global. I thought of it as the "how do I have a home and HQ in Orange County while keeping the doors open". Again resistance from twerps, mostly leftist who assumed the golden goose would keep eggs coming.
Well they've killed it, and now the goose killers are concerned they won't be kept alive unless they are provided for (see also Obama care) and I have news for them, that won't work well or for long. | |
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