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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 4:31:14 PM |
In any case considering the fact that Obama leads Hillary now only by about 160 delegates, less when you consider the superdelegates, and there is likely to be a significant delegate swing in Hillary's direction from the remaining 6 states
To eliminate Obama's delegate lead, Clinton has to win nearly 90%-10% in all six states. There's no way.
Her only chance would be for massive numbers of superdelegates to join her camp. | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 4:39:56 PM | MG, I doubt Hillary's supporters would be mad at her for trying to get the actual proportional amount of delegates from Michigan that the surveys before that primary suggested she would get and the actual vote count suggested she should get. The compromise offer apparently was based on the idea of giving all the "uncommittted" delegates to Obama. But if you look at the surveys before the vote it's certain alot of those would have gone instead to the other candidates, likely more than half.
The fairest thing, which is what I support, would be to have a fair primary with the two remaining candidates. That is what would have happened anyway if the primary dates for Michigan and Florida hadn't been moved in the first place.
I don't agree that Hillary is only leading in 3 of the remaining states. Here are the latest survey numbers for those states yet to vote taken from the site of the link I gave:
2008-05-13 West Virginia 28 66% 23% 11%
2008-05-20 Kentucky 51 56% 31% 13%
2008-05-20 Oregon 52 39% 51% 10%
2008-06-01 Puerto Rico 55 50% 37% 13%
2008-06-03 Montana 16 29% 17% 19%
2008-06-03 South Dakota 15 34% 46% 20%
The first number after the state name is the number of delegates, then the percentages of who would vote for Hillary, Obama, and are uncommitted respectively. Clinton leads by wide margins in 4 of those states while Obama leads by large margins in 2. But the states Clinton leads in by those wide margins have a large delegate lead over those who support Obama.
PhillyFellow | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 4:47:56 PM | PhillyFellow, I hope you noticed where I live. And I'm here to tell you I'm ticked off. I'm ticked off that our state allowed this to happen, I'm ticked off that we didn't do a do over, I'm ticked off at the thought of a do-over, how much it would cost our state...I'm ticked off that she thinks she won, and I'm ticked off that she is rejecting the attempt at fairly seating these delegates.
I'm damn close to becoming anti-Hillary. | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 4:56:44 PM | Philly, you're too funny, man!  But it's cool. You're alright in my book! 
At THIS stage of the game, however, in order for Hillary to take a delegate lead from Obama, she'll have to turn up some video footage of him in the bathroom of a synagogue engaging in homosexual sex with a half dozen midget clowns, while counting his stolen campaign donation monies.  | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 5:17:16 PM |
I don't agree that Hillary is only leading in 3 of the remaining states.
She will be "leading" a lot less, as more and more super delegates switch sides, or make a commitment to Obama.
That will inevitably trigger a shift in support, as the momentum transfers over to Obama. | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 6:10:15 PM | Vyper, I have absolutely no idea what it is but there have been claims on Hillary supporter forums that there is some political bombshell to be revealed about Obama.
PhillyFellow | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 6:12:09 PM |
Vyper, I have absolutely no idea what it is but there have been claims on Hillary supporter forums that there is some political bombshell to be revealed about Obama.
Yes. Come close. Let me whisper. Closer. Much closer. Here it is - Obama is part black. | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 6:14:24 PM | Obama picks up 9 superdelegates, union endorsement
By JOAN LOWY (Associated Press Writer)
From Associated Press
May 09, 2008 7:19 PM EDT
WASHINGTON - Barack Obama all but erased Hillary Rodham Clinton's once-imposing lead among national convention superdelegates on Friday and won fresh labor backing as elements of the Democratic Party began coalescing around the Illinois senator for the fall campaign.
Obama picked up the backing of nine superdelegates, including Rep. Donald Payne of New Jersey, a member of the Congressional Black Caucus who had been a Clinton supporter.
In addition, the American Federation of Government Employees announced its support for Obama. The union claims about 600,000 members who work in the federal and Washington, D.C., governments....................
In an interview with National Public Radio, former candidate John Edwards said Clinton has made a compelling case for her candidacy, but "I think it's very hard for her now to make a compelling case for the math. I mean, I think that's the reality of what she's faced with. She knows that. ... It's just very hard to see how the math works."
In the overall race for the nomination, Obama leads with 1,859.5 delegates, to 1,698 for Clinton. Obama is just 165.5 delegates short of the 2,025 delegates needed to win it.
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 6:24:19 PM |
Yes. Come close. Let me whisper. Closer. Much closer. Here it is - Obama is part black.
Hah! That made me laugh!
I bet the Clinton's would like people to think they've got such a 'bombshell'... just like McCarthy had that list of 'card carrying communists' in his pocket.
At this point... any evil factoid she reveals about Obama is going to hurt her almost as much... it might get her the nomination, but she'll look like such a craven **** that she'll alienate any good will she might have gotten from survivors on the other side. | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 6:27:38 PM | I don't think she has anything. Why hold on to it? If she was really a champion of the people of America, and she really had something devastating against Obama, why fight this fight for this long and not reveal it? Especially since she could have been getting campaign money all this time from people supporting Obama and she is dead broke?
It just seems to me that if she had something truly devastating, she'd have said what it is by now to get him out, get her ahead, and let the people she wants to vote for her have a 'decent' candidate to vote for. It's propaganda. | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 6:32:40 PM | Yeah, she probably made a 911 call to some NY cops and said she thinks he has a gun so he would down in a hail of 50 bullets and they go on administrative leave til the Democratic convention.
the woman must be pretty desperate, if she had anything on the guy, it would be out by now. | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 7:25:39 PM |
Yeah, she probably made a 911 call to some NY cops and said she thinks he has a gun so he would down in a hail of 50 bullets
Right, Steve. 
No. Trust me, she has nothing more. If she did, she wouldn't have to keep stir-frying Jeremiah Wright and blowing-up use of the word "bitter" into a campaign issue that he actually needed to pause to address and apologize for. She would have dropped any bombshell she had in time to blow him out in Indiana and eke him out in North Carolina.
Her last ditch effort at getting the nomination, despite losing on all the metrics, required her to be able to convincingly argue that only she could win on the "important" states like PA, NC, and IN. She knew that she needed to win NC because master politician Bill told her so. If she had anything, then, she would been compelled to drop her bomb before those critical contests.
She didn't. She's got nothing else (full stop) | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 7:32:21 PM | Here are the latest figures in the delegate count and super-delegate count for the Dem. race:
Pledged Delegate Count:
Obama-- 1,590.5
Hillary-- 1,426.5
Obama leads by 164 pledged delegates
Super-delegate Count:
Obama--269
Hillary--269.5
Hillary leads by 0.5 (fraction of a delegate)
Hillary would have to garner an 88% average (or more) of the vote in ALL OF the remaining primaries in order to catch up to Obama. Even if you count the delegates from Michigan and Florida as they were originally allocated (completely outside of the rules), Hillary would have to garner a 63% average (or more) of the vote in ALL of the remaining primaries in order to catch up to Obama.
Hillary has not even gotten 60% of the vote in ANY of the states she has won, with the sole exception of Arkansas. Given the fact that Hillary is expected to lose Oregon heavily (a state with a huge delegate count); is expected to lose South Dakota; and only has a chance to get 60% or better in ONE remaining state, it's virtually impossible for Hillary to catch up, whether Michigan/Florida are counted or not.
So, not only is Hillary a cheater because she didn't abide by her signed agreements; but she also has virtually no chance to catch up in the race, whether Michigan and Florida are included or not. | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 9:44:38 PM | Spitfire, she doesn't have to win the *primary* delegate count. As I said the latest surveys show her with a huge lead in WV which is just 4 days away, as high as 40 points, and her lead in Kentucky is as high as 25 points. These are the first two states coming up, and these alone can wipe out the delegate gains Obama made in NC. It would also be rather embarrassing to the Obama campaign to endure these severe lopsided losses when claiming the primary campaign is over.
Also very important is these states will give further evidence that Obama can not win the lower middle class and working class white vote. There is no need to ascribe racial intent on the voters for this. This is something that has been observed in presidential elections for decades. These voters consist of more moderate democrats and they always vote conservatively in presidential elections, and Obama is the most extreme liberal candidate ever offered for president.
Now assuming the Florida and Michigan delegates are counted which Clinton won big even if you throw all the uncommitteds in the Michigan race to Obama (about half of them should really go to the other candidates) then Obama's lead in primary delegates could be significantly cut by the end of the primaries, perhaps as low as 50 to 75 delegates. This is hardly a mandate for Obama with 2000 total delegates at stake. There is also the fact that since Florida and Michigan are such populous states counting the votes there could very well give her the lead in total votes cast.
When you factor in Obama's failure to attract the lower middle class and working class white voters any democratic candidate needs to win, and the dismal record of liberal candidates running for president, which the superdelegates are well aware of, they might choose to give the nomination to the more centrist candidate in Hillary Clinton.
It worked before with Bill.
PhillyFellow | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 9:52:12 PM | | Obama is a good man who has more integrity than most politicians out there, so it's hard for Shrillary to find any "political bombshells." When people see that McCain is not fit for the presidency, more Republicans will cross over and vote for Obama. | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 10:16:56 PM |
Given the fact that Hillary is expected to lose Oregon heavily (a state with a huge delegate count); is expected to lose South Dakota; and only has a chance to get 60% or better in ONE remaining state, it's virtually impossible for Hillary to catch up, whether Michigan/Florida are counted or not.
So, not only is Hillary a cheater because she didn't abide by her signed agreements; but she also has virtually no chance to catch up in the race, whether Michigan and Florida are included or not.
Hillary is expected to win in Oregon, Spitfire. According to pollster.com, she is expected to win 36% to 28%. In fact, according to pollster.com, she will win every upcoming contest except South Dakota. What is everyone afraid of? Why are they so anxious to make her quit and concede this race?
I honestly don't understand why this is so hard for Obama's supporters to get. Obama appears to get it, but the pundits, talking heads, and those who passionately support Obama do not get it, no matter how many times it is spelled out for them again and again.
It's called respect. Half the democrats voting within our party are for Hillary Clinton. Why don't Obama's supporters see this and get a clue that without us, Obama cannot win the national election? Why don't they get this very simple fact? Do they think this fact is going away? Do the truly stupid pundits on television that also favor Obama not get this factual data either?
The more that everyone tries to push Senator Clinton out before it's time, the more they treat her like a dog, and the more they show her supporters absolute and utter disrespect again and again, night after night by not caring what we feel regarding how she's being treated, the more we are pushed away from the democratic party and toward McCain. It's not Hillary that is damaging this party by staying in this race and not conceding-- it's Obama's supporters who have damaged and are damaging this party, and through this damage they are doing, they are going to lose the national election in November. If they were smart, they would treat our candidate with respect, they would treat those of us who voted for her with respect. They need us to win in November.
The logic being utilized is just so not there and it's sad because the logic is not that difficult to grasp. Really it's simple common sense. Obama's supporters are supposed to be so educated. lol. I've seen little to back that up. I think the stats must be wrong because they are not showing even an iota of common sense in this regard.
I think the message will be clear to them in November though. The message will be loud and clear. If Hillary Clinton should concede and not finish this race, there are going to be one hell of a lot of angry Clinton supporters. If she is not supported through to the finish of this race, it will show come November. If the votes from Florida and Michigan are ignored and not dealt with in a fair and reasonable manner, Florida and Michigan voters who stay disenfranchised won't back Senator Obama. I've never in my life seen the Democratic party shoot itself in the foot so bad. It's almost too pathetic to watch anymore. | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 10:18:53 PM | Spitfire, she doesn't have to win the *primary* delegate count.
Philly Fellow: The point is that Hillary is behind in the popular vote and the pledged delegate count; and she will be behind Obama in the super-delegate count within days.
It's unrealistic to think that Hillary will get the minimum number of votes needed across the remaining six primaries in order to catch Obama in the total vote or the pledged delegate count. She has not broken 60% in any of her wins throughout the campaign, save Arkansas. Hillary would have to get close to a 90% average in EVERY primary to catch up. If you factor in the tainted, agreement-breaking results from Michigan and Florida, Hillary would still have to achieve a 63% average in the remaining primaries. The current polling for the final primaries doesn't show her achieving anywhere near that. She can't do it, and the superdelegates have already declared privately that they're not going to override Obama's win.
As has been stated: It's only rabid Hillary supporters who are still bitterly clinging to a lost hope she can win. She can't win, and if she insists on using a "scorched earth" policy rather than getting out of the race gracefully, she will wreck her own legacy and become a political byword for decades.
Hillary is expected to win in Oregon, Spitfire.
You need to look at more than one poll. Most polls, including those of BOTH campaigns, show Obama beating Hillary in Oregon decisively. | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 10:26:06 PM | Just remember, in the words of Hillary Rodham Clinton, "the last man standing .....may just be a woman".
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 10:32:47 PM | I won't be surprised whether Obama or Clinton wins the Democratic Nomination. I have a feeling both still have aces up their sleeves to play.
I'm just excited that this election year will be interesting!!! I have a feeling that the USA will soon regain a renewed positive Worldwide image. Doesn't matter to me what other Nations think of us as long as I, as a Citizen, feel I want to call this Country home.. which I do gladly and feel blessed to be here... I'm just saying our image will be improved because I think - especially if McCain gets in there, that a lot more will get acomplished for internal good and we, as a Nation, will refocus on our own Country. It won't be an easy road... but, we will have made the turn for the positive. | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 10:37:40 PM |
I don't know where you got the idea that Obama is not going to campaign in West Virginia, but he already said in a recently-published article that he expects her to win there and he knows that he'll have to campaign vigorously there. So MY money says West Virginians will see and hear a fair amount from the Illinois senator.
The latest news is that Obama will not appear there though he will run commercials and have campaign staffers working there.
Clinton pushes swing-state strategy.
By Christina Bellantoni
May 10, 2008
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080510/NATION/375071932/http&template=nextpage
PhillyFellow | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 10:40:48 PM | | I heard the Patriots still have a chance to win last year's Super Bowl too. | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 11:01:59 PM | Wow! Southernlass has provided one of the most 'right on target' and insightful posts I've seen. What she has presented is one of the reasons McCain will win against Obama. It would have been closer, a tighter race, if H. Clinton ended up his opponent for the White House.
Simply imho. | |
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| How is Hillary still going with that stake through her heart?
Posted: 5/9/2008 11:06:56 PM | [Looking up at the American Flag flying above my house and rubbing my chin]
"President Obama.... I like the sound of that... President Obama"
and
Vice President Edwards.
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
James, Seattle(ish), Washington, USA, Earth | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 11:11:38 PM |
We're wasting our collective breath at this point. The press is now calling Obama "the presumptive nominee".
That's probably because most of them haven't really looked at the survey percentages and delegates for the remaining states, or considered what would and should happen to the total delegate and popular vote counts if Florida and Michigan were factored in.
There is also the fact that some media outlets such as CNN and truly embarrassingly MSNBC are so clearly favoring Obama over Hillary.
PhillyFellow | |
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| Why is Hillary Losing?
Posted: 5/9/2008 11:20:28 PM | | I still doubt that Republicans will go to the polls en masse in support of McCain. | |
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