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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/30/2008 10:04:53 AM |
Hillary Clinton picked up a key newspaper endorsement today in South Dakota, but Barack Obama keeps adding all-important superdelegates -- and moving closer to the Democratic nomination. Texas Democratic Party chairman Boyd Richie and his wife Betty announced their support for Obama, who is now within 42 total delegates of clinching (at least until the magic number changes Saturday if the party's rules committee restores some delegates from Florida and Michigan). The Associated Press is reporting that Richie had planned to wait until after the state party convention next week. Clinton narrowly won the Texas primary on March 4, but Obama won the simultaneous caucuses. "I believe Senator Obama is the candidate who can best provide the leadership and change Texans desire," Richie said in a statement issued by the party. "Senator Obama has the skill and ability to unite Americans from all walks of life and put our country back on the right track." http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/05/clinton_gets_ed.html
Closer and closer. | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/30/2008 10:53:07 AM |
There isn't anyone in politics or on this thread who isn't aware that both Obama and McCain will be trashed during the general election campaign. It goes with the territory, and I respect both candidates for dealing with it without complaining.
Well said!
And.... we all know there will be ....ahhhhh.... ummmmm ..... lively discussions here on the Political Forum on both sides when the real race begins.
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/30/2008 2:55:04 PM | spitfire: "There isn't anyone in politics or on this thread who isn't aware that both Obama and McCain will be trashed during the general election campaign. It goes with the territory, and I respect both candidates for dealing with it without complaining."
Don't be hasty - it hasn't happened yet. Wait til the mud-slinging starts and the media slants in favour of one opponent over the other. You'll hear plenty of whining. Only it won't be called whining - it will be 'observation'. | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/30/2008 3:31:05 PM | I don't think the media is going to do anything in the general like they're doing now. Remember FOX is right, MSNBC is left, and CNN is also accused of being left. So it's going to be McCain against Obama, not like now where they have two on the same side to bicker about. The news outlets are going to be going right vs left, not left vs left vs right.
And don't underestimate Obama....you make it sound like the republicans are going to just hit him with this brick wall, do you really think he's unprepared for that? My guess is that he's been preparing for it before he even announced he was running. I'm not saying the right is not capable of dirty tactics, but to think Obama will be suprised and unprepared, and unable to defend himself is not really what the reality will be like, at least IMO. | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/30/2008 6:03:22 PM | WOW!
This thread has been EERILY quiet today. I guess this is that "calm before the storm" -thing I've heard about, eh?  | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/30/2008 6:05:39 PM |
Why is Hillary losing the nomination?
Cuz more people are voting for Barack. | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/30/2008 6:07:11 PM |
This thread has been EERILY quiet today. I guess this is that "calm before the storm" -thing I've heard about, eh?
Yep, big party tomorrow! I wish I could take a lil road trip to Lansing and be a mouse in the corner! | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/30/2008 6:39:59 PM | What do you guys really think is going to happen. My mother is afraid Clinton is up to something and will steal the election. I hope not,that will tear the party apart.  | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/30/2008 7:32:04 PM | I think that Bill has and will continue to pull every ounce of weight he has to the issue; that the DNC -- with Barack's grudging agreement -- will offer the compromise of giving Hillary half (maybe a wee bit more) of the total delegates she is hoping to get, and we'll go into Tuesday and beyond with Bill and the rest of Hillary's camp fruitlessly pressuring the few remaining "uncommitted" superdelegates -- as well as some who have already opted to back Barack -- to back Hillary, as the fight goes to the floor of the convention with her relentlessly trying to convince the superdelegate body that an African-American Democratic candidate cannot garner enough of the Caucasian-American vote for the dems to beat McCain.
Of course, that is just my rank speculation. She might surprise us all and, after winning Puerto Rico and losing the remaining contests, offer up her concession speech. But I think we will continue to see the slow trickle of superdelegates that we've BEEN seeing (as opposed to the rushing flood we would have seen if Bill wasn't the awesome political force that he is), make their way over to Barack's camp until he eventually wraps this thing up. And then it'll be off to see if Hillary was correct.
Although, of course, it will be difficult to assess exactly how much of a dearth of votes Barack may suffer in the general election will be due to his color, versus how much will be due to the angrily-disgruntled Hillary supporters either declining to show up for the election, or actually affirmatively voting for McCain -- either out of a belief that he would be a better choice for the country or out or pure, bitter, protesting spite.
And, if McCain does win because of the latter (and, for the record, I don't think he will; I think he'll lose by a large margin), those protest voters will be crying in their milk alongside we Obama supporters as the Republicans continue putting the screws to us both through their special-interests-directed policies. | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/30/2008 7:36:32 PM | I wonder if they even gave her both Michigan and Florida, if she'd still lose? Anyone know the math on that one?
5 days and counting to June 3.
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/30/2008 9:19:59 PM | | If they gave her the delegates from those states, I'm pretty sure the math says she still trails Barack in delegates. She might actually go ahead a hair in popular votes, if she was given all the votes she wants as well. Optimally for her, if she got them both completely, she'd still be losing, but would be losing by less. With a smaller gap in delegates, she would increase her prospects for being able to garner enough superdelegates to close the gap and try to pull off the ultimate comeback. Pretty pie-in-the-sky, if you ask me, and -- considering she's been getting her hiney spanked for virtually all of '08 -- a pretty cruddy outcome. | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/30/2008 9:32:39 PM | To supplement the littany of reasons summarized by Spitfire, below is Steve's assessment for why Hillary is losing:
Obama used party rules to foil Clinton
By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER, Associated Press Writer Fri May 30, 3:48 PM ET
WASHINGTON -
Unlike Hillary Rodham Clinton, rival Barack Obama planned for the long haul.
Clinton hinged her whole campaign on an early knockout blow on Super Tuesday, while Obama's staff researched congressional districts in states with primaries that were months away. What they found were opportunities to win delegates, even in states they would eventually lose.
Obama's campaign mastered some of the most arcane rules in politics, and then used them to foil a front-runner who seemed to have every advantage — money, fame and a husband who had essentially run the Democratic Party for eight years as president.
"Without a doubt, their understanding of the nominating process was one of the keys to their success," said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist not aligned with either candidate. "They understood the nuances of it and approached it at a strategic level that the Clinton campaign did not."
Careful planning is one reason why Obama is emerging as the nominee as the Democratic Party prepares for its final three primaries, Puerto Rico on Sunday and Montana and South Dakota on Tuesday. Attributing his success only to soaring speeches and prodigious fundraising ignores a critical part of contest.
Obama used the Democrats' system of awarding delegates to limit his losses in states won by Clinton while maximizing gains in states he carried. Clinton, meanwhile, conserved her resources by essentially conceding states that favored Obama, including many states that held caucuses instead of primaries.
In a stark example, Obama's victory in Kansas wiped out the gains made by Clinton for winning New Jersey, even though New Jersey had three times as many delegates at stake. Obama did it by winning big in Kansas while keeping the vote relatively close in New Jersey ...
Full story at: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080530/ap_on_el_pr/obama_strategy | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/30/2008 10:45:54 PM | | Hillary's campaign thought that wins in 10 -15 big states would do it for her. After the MI/FL delegate fight is over, she can go back to New York and reflect on all this. There's no dishonor in her loss. There are only lessons learned. Who knows, maybe Chelsea will be the one benefitting from this loss 30 years from now. | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/31/2008 2:09:48 AM | The Democratic party is Nancy Pelosi's little fiefdom and we are only her vassals.
Clinton's Last Stand; Challenges for Obama, McCain. Carla Marinucci, Chronicle Political Writer Friday, May 30, 2008 "I admire the enthusiasm of those who want to take this to the limit," Pelosi said. "But it will harm our party's chances to win in November. Their enthusiasm is wonderful ... but it's a luxury I can't afford." ... "Sen. Clinton and President Clinton, they are leaders in our country. They're above all of this," she added. "The enthusiasm of some of our supporters sometimes gets a little zealous." http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/05/30/MNQE110L6T.DTL
They still don't get it! This goes beyond a candidate just being too liberal for our tastes. If that were the case many of us would just buckle up and accept him if he were elected fairly. But this candidate is much worse than that. He is only close to the nomination BECAUSE TWO ENTIRE STATES WERE DENIED THE RIGHT TO VOTE. He has political corruption charges hanging over his chief fundraiser for all his previous elections. He only won his prior elections by having his opponents thrown out. He has tacitly supported anti-american, anti-patriotic, terrorist sympathizers, when terrorism is one of biggest concerns of the American people. He has no foreign policy understanding and has made foolish statements that only serve to further increase the perception that he himself is sympathetic to terrorists AGAINST HIS OWN COUNTRY. How in heavens name can they expect us to support this guy? How in heavens name can they?
PhillyFellow | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/31/2008 2:12:21 AM | | Relax and accept it. We're going to have the first black president and an extremely bright one to boot. | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/31/2008 2:14:33 AM |
"Without a doubt, their understanding of the nominating process was one of the keys to their success," said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist not aligned with either candidate. "They understood the nuances of it and approached it at a strategic level that the Clinton campaign did not."
The key to their success is getting two entire entire states to be denied the right to vote. He would not be close to the nomination without that. Completely expected for the chief political crony of the arch corrupter Antoin "Tony" Rezko.
PhillyFellow | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/31/2008 2:17:33 AM | | And you're suggesting that was Obama's doing? He'll win the race regardless of whether those states are counted or not. Hillary agreed to the rules. Now she doesn't like them because they're not to her advantage. Too bad baby. Tooooo bad. | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/31/2008 2:22:02 AM |
The key to their success is getting two entire entire states to be denied the right to vote.
You mean the ones Hillary agreed to exclude, those ones ?
How in heavens name can they expect us to support this guy? How in heavens name can they?
I think an intervention is needed here.
1) When Obama wins - pack up your bags, and go to McCain headquarters. They could use a good man like you over there, I'm sure they have a spot open right now - although they may not be able to pay you.
2) Sit at home, rage against the machine, and let McCain get elected by your absence. Enjoy the next four years of the fruits of that decision while you look back on what might have been.
3) Vote for a third party, and see the same occur.
4) Join forces with Obama, and go on to victory in November.
There are your choices. I'd start thinking about them, as they will be a very pertinent thing in the very near future.
The crossroads are rapidly approaching.
Come mothers and fathers Throughout the land And don't criticize What you can't understand Your sons and your daughters Are beyond your command Your old road is Rapidly agin'. Please get out of the new one If you can't lend your hand For the times they are a-changin'. | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/31/2008 2:22:20 AM |
Relax and accept it. We're going to have the first black president and an extremely bright one to boot.
The man is a buffoon! He does not know the difference between Memorial Day and Veterans Day, and shows sneering disrespect for those citizens who chose to serve their country by joining the armed forces. He has no conception of what the underlying meaning of "ethnic cleansing" is. He is incapable of speaking without a prepared script without making a fool of himself, and still manages to look foolish with a prepared script the instant he deviates from it.
PhillyFellow | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/31/2008 2:25:32 AM | That man is going to be the Democratic candidate for President of the United States, with a good chance of winning the November election.
Again, McCain's staff has openings - apply there.  | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/31/2008 2:45:51 AM |
Senator Clinton's support among key parts of her base – women, whites, Easterners, Hispanics, adults with no college education – dropped below 50 percent in mid-May, according to a Gallup study released this week. Senator Obama, meanwhile, has so expanded his support that he logged a record 16-point lead over Clinton in polling last weekend among Democratic and left-leaning voters, according to Gallup.
If that lead holds, it would suggest that a growing number of Clinton supporters no longer see her as a viable candidate and are coalescing around Obama as the likely Democratic nominee. The findings indicate that Democrats may have an easier time uniting behind Obama than some exit polls suggest.
"It's possible we're transitioning from the nomination phase to the general election phase," says Jeffrey Jones, managing editor of the Gallup Poll. "Instead of necessarily evaluating Obama against Clinton, he's being evaluated against McCain and therefore he may be more appealing to some Democratic groups that have been Clinton supporters."
The only key group where support for Clinton still topped 51 percent – if by a hair – were women ages 50 and older. That figure remained largely unchanged in May even while Clinton's support among men ages 18 to 49 dropped nearly 10 points.
The racial and economic rifts highlighted by the news media after a primary are heat-of-the-moment snapshots derived from exit polls. Those surveys are taken as voters leave polling places and often follow weeks of intense campaign activity, which can stir passions and deepen divisions among voters.
National polls, however, sample a broad group of voters who may have adjusted their views as passions have cooled and the race has moved on to other states.
"With exit polls, you're looking at divisions in an actual contest that just happened," says Adam Berinsky, a polling expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "The national poll is capturing the dynamics of the larger campaign."
On Tuesday, Clinton won 65 percent of the vote in Kentucky, to Obama's 30 percent, in a state whose Democrats mirrored West Virginia's: mainly white and conservative, with large numbers of lower-income, less-educated voters. Two-thirds of women voters backed Clinton, as did more than 7 in 10 whites.
In Oregon, with nearly all precincts reporting, Obama was winning 58 percent of the vote to Clinton's 42 percent. Oregonians voted by mail, but a telephone survey last week of people who said they had voted or definitely would vote found Obama drawing support from groups typically in Clinton's column.
Nearly 6 in 10 whites backed him. So did about half of women, Catholics, and voters with family incomes below $50,000. Oregon Democrats tend to be liberal, which could explain his stronger showing among those groups.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0522/p02s04-uspo.html
There's the seed of success. Water it. | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/31/2008 3:22:37 AM | | From you lips to god's ear my friend. The trend is there. I'm convinced he's going to make but he does need to develop a strategy to win over the older white female vote to sew this up quickly. (Insulting his grandmother's "whiteness" probably didn't help much). | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/31/2008 4:13:57 AM | | Nice characiture, Philly. I hope, since you seem to be left-leaning, that you can get past all the b.s. you so loyally stand behind and vote for the right man for the job in November. I think in your heart of hearts you know it's not McCain. | |
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| Why is Hillary losing? Posted: 5/31/2008 11:29:39 AM | Below is a link to a YouTube video of Bill Clinton in a private meeting admitting the inevitable. The most sensible course of action is to give the FL/MI delegates the equivalent of a half-vote. He knows it's time to wrap this thing up and move on. Bill is a pragmatist and sees the writing on the wall:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uluCnBctpHU | |
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