| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/16/2009 8:53:10 PM | What is everyone's take on the situation with Mousavi disputing Ahmadinejad's "victory?"
I personally think this is great. It is clear the younger generation of Iran (note the median age is 27) is fed up with the theocratic bullshit that Khamenei and the mullahs have been forcing down their throats for thirty years. Mousavi isn't perfect, but I think we can all agree he is a better alternative than Ahmadinejad, a man who's continued reign ensures that there will be a major war between Shiite and Sunni states in the region in the coming years.
There will be a lot of blood spilled in Tehran in the coming days. The ban on journalists just shows that Iran's government is ready to turn this into another Tienanmen Square. Sadly, freedom isn't free and a price has to be paid for it. Those protesting the election results may pay with their lives, but their success will be saving far more lives in the long run.
If I may close with a Thomas Jefferson quote: "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/17/2009 1:49:52 AM | I have nothing to back up my belief other than just suspicion - but I would be absolutely shocked to find out that the election wasn't rigged. I do think it is possible that he may have won, but I'm having problems with the 70% of the vote - it just doesn't ring true to me.
Does it matter? In the long run, I think not. In many ways, Iran may be better off in the long run because of this "stolen" election. Ahmadinejad is going to have to be careful now, becuase he is now very well aware of just how many people don't want him in power - and if he pisses too many of them off, he arse will be in a sling.
It has also mobilized the youth in Iran ... and the suspicion that the election was stolen from them is just going to make them MORE pissed off, and MORE active. This will put even more pressure on Ahmadinejad to behave himself - and that can't be a bad thing.
If there is blood spilled, think about the fallout from Kent State, or the Chicago Riots at the NDC - think about just how much of an effect it had on the American political landscape. If Ahmadinejad isn't careful, he's going to be walking through that exact same minefield.
I think we're about to see some very major changes in Iran. | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/17/2009 6:42:54 AM | Another USA sponsored coup with the shahs son installed as ruler coming?
Wouldnt suprise me.
They are sitting on so much of that lovely black stuff.
Even though the shah wasnt the nicest guy. | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/17/2009 6:57:47 AM | | I think we need to fix our own election system before we go around criticizing others. | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/17/2009 7:07:11 AM | I believe they counted (50?) million votes in 12 hours - by hand. Not!
Ahmadinejad won 63% of the vote? I'd believe 36% versus 33.7%. THAT would put his "win" into serious question, given the reports of polling fraud.
The fact they felt the need to shut down the press and communications should be a big red flag to anyone. | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/17/2009 7:43:44 AM |
I believe they counted (50?) million votes in 12 hours - by hand. Not!
Most countries do count their votes by hand. Here in Canada, I think we'd have may 10-15 million voters, and we pretty well know the results of an election within an hour or two. You'd be surprised at just how well hand counting scales.
As far as 50 million votes is concerned .... the population of Iran is 70 million - the population of Canada is half that, at about 35 million. If we can get our results in an hour or two, why is it a stretch to think that Iran can have theirs in 12? | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/17/2009 8:18:48 AM | | american should not get involved , they should worry bout there own business , its not as if america has the most democratic form of government, see bush gore.....obama is rite to keep a low profile, i did not like him in the first place, but am coming around, i still think the usa is being unreasonable when it comes to its relations with canada, new pass port regulations, wanting to dump guantanamo inmates here,lets face it not all that many canadians want to live in your country, we have a more democratic form of government, a better economy(not one canadian bank asked for a bail out) universal health care, a good reputation in the world, low crime rate, no race problems, we love our country and our way of life | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/17/2009 8:56:58 AM | No matter how the votes were counted, this could never have been deemed a fair election. The Expediency Discernment Council vets every candidate and barred any candidates they saw as a threat to Ahmadinejad. The council is made up of members solely appointed by Khamenei. It was during the last election cycle that thousands were barred from the parliamentary election by this council. This election (like all Iranian elections) was a complete sham before it began as the mullahs picked the candidates who could run.
It is quite possible that Ahmadinejad could have won a fair election. However, it is damn near impossible he won with the 62% of the vote that the Iran's state run media claims. Just a note, but popular US presidents such as Ronald Reagan never sniffed 60%. The largest percentage of the popular vote ever gathered by a US President was LBJ's 61.1% in the 1964 election against Barry Goldwater. Of course LBJ never ran for reelection as he would have never won the Democratic nomination in 1968. Ahmadinejad winning is certainly plausible, but the results given sure as hell aren't. | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/17/2009 10:32:12 AM | Different countries have different ways of deciding upon who should lead their country and how officials should be chosen.
The reason you are having a problem with the Iranian election is because you are looking at it from the perspective of a United States Citizen who has more than likely lived in a Democratic Republic with single member districts his entire life. The US is the pretty much the only country that does it this way. Many other countries do have Democratic Republics, but there systems are based on a proportional representation system and not single member districts.
Now, Iran is what is known as a Theocracy. This means that while they do elect officials, their officials are, as you pointed out, vetted and must be allowed to run by a council of religious leaders. Is it possible that your charge, albeit an absurd charge, is true? Sure. My guess, however, would be that those candidates who were rejected were rejected on the basis of the religious beliefs. This is the way things work in a Theocracy. Is it fair? Well, that depends on your definition of fair, but that is the way their government works, and I have absolutely no problem with it. As I stated before, I think there are a lot more problems with the election system in the US that need to be addressed before we start worrying about other countries. | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/17/2009 11:04:20 AM | I'm Canadian and not American. But as i stated last night in a conversation regarding this issue and some peoples views Canada isn't getting more involved in this also was "we in Canada should start learning to clean up our own backyards and our own messes before we give a rats a*s about whats happening half way around the world. How the hell is running to some guys aid and getting in the middle of a political pissing match in Iran going to help the unemployed and families here that need it, we have far to many very serious issues at home to deal with first"
I think there's been way to much concerning ourselves with everyone elses countries and letting our own fall apart around us, IMO that goes for the U.S.A as well. We have a lot of serious problems that need to be addressed in North America first. Let the Iranians deal with there own problems. Maybe that country needs a good ole fashioned revolution to set things straight with out interference from anyone on this side of the Atlantic. | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/17/2009 11:20:03 AM |
Our media decide who will win an election in this country.
are you saying your vote was swayed by what you saw on TV, Heard on radio, Read in the newspapers and magazines?
Or that the media gets in line and votes? | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/17/2009 2:52:42 PM | Some one posted a very interesting article recently on my facebook page that showed that there was no rigging in the recent Iranian election.
The way I see it, American and western media have over hyped the potential of Mohammad Mousawwi. Funny how, the same guy was one of the main figures of Iranian revolution 2 decades a go and a staunch supporter of Khomeni. And now the same guy has become the hope of the western powers and USA.
Hypocrisy I smell!!!! | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/17/2009 3:05:08 PM | And now the same guy has become the hope of the western powers and USA.
Obama is behaving more as a adult than any other faction in this little drama.
What is gained by the President speaking out about voter fraud in another countries elections...How can we prove any voting irregularities.
The people protesting dont really want change...they want more freedoms. A loosening of strict social restrictions.
They want to keep the same form of Mulla government...they just want to boogie.
The are like kids throwing a fit cus the want to a later curfew...get real | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/17/2009 3:36:16 PM | All I am saying america and the west should keep their hands out of it. When the revolution came in 1979, it came from within the masses. Any outside help would make the matters more complicated.
Amadenejad is a clown. He needs to go, but whatever change has to come it must not have not have any hallmakrs of america or the west.
The west has manipulated Iran for too long. They just need to back off. | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/17/2009 7:44:06 PM | I have not recommended anywhere here that the US government or any government for that matter should be involved. I am merely asking for opinions on the matter in order to have a dialogue here.
I do agree that the US policy should be to stayout of the actual election and stay quiet on the results. However, the entire world (US included obviously) should condemn the violent crackdown that is occurring against the protesters.
The good news is that everyone from the generals on down to the green enlisted men in Iran's army has rejected direct orders from higher up to shoot the protesters. All of the violence being committed has been committed by paramilitary forces (which are militias and not the actual military). This is good for two reasons. First, it means less lives will be lost. Second, it means that Khamenei's hold on Iran is slipping as he needs the army in order to keep order.
I understand Mousavi was involved with the revolution in 1979 and was the Prime Minister under Ayatollah Khomeini. People change though. Remember that Menachem Begin, the Israeli Prime Minister who made peace with Egypt, was once a member of the Irgun. You can also note that Mahmoud Abbas was a member of Black September. He is now the leading voice in the Palestinian leadership for peace.
Obviously there is a long history here leading back to Mosadegh's overthrow. However, the difference is that Mosadegh was a legitimate ruler who was thrown out by foreign powers. (Yes I'm one of the few Americans who knows that dark part of our history) Ahmadinejad is now a ruler who is about to be overthrown by a domestic force. Obviously we can't and shouldn't get involved directly here, but I have no problem standing on the sideline and cheering.
Just a note to Modest Mouse. I stated earlier that it is entirely possible that Ahmadinejad won. It is just impossible for the margins given by Iran's state media to be correct. All independent polling showed them neck and neck with Ahmadinejad winning large margins in the rural areas and Mousavi winning in the cities. the Iranian numbers are clearly BS as they show Ahmadinejad winning in both cities and rural areas and amongst every possible demographic. This is something that all indepdendent polling clearly showed as damn near impossible. If the Mullahs were smart, they would've rigged the election so that Ahmadinejad won by a more believable margin. | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/18/2009 10:28:25 AM | OP agree with everything you said.
I do believe this was a rigged vote,proof is that 100,000's of people flooding the streets in protest risking their lives to do so,also meaning tens of thousands don't have the nerve to do that for fear of their lives.This shows me the numbers are great,far larger than anything we see in pictures.
This kind of numbers and response does not come from landslide wins,absolutely impossible,there is proof in the numbers that something fraudulent happened.
Good for the citizens to stand up and protest at such great a risk to do so.Its moving to see such devotion . | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/18/2009 10:52:00 AM | ^^^^MFM ... I agree.
I hope that this will continue until they declare the election null and void. Problem is, now if they have another election, they won't be sooooo stuoooopid to announce the results quite sooooo soon afterwards ... will wait a bit so that it seems legit.
Either way, the end result, we just have to hope the US can find some sort of dialog with Iran. WE need that ... NOT war. | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/18/2009 11:05:03 AM | A point to remember....
Those countries where the government loves us, the people tend to hate us.
Those countries where the government hates us, the people love us. | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/18/2009 1:23:58 PM | This is really a complex situation and there's really not a lot good to come from any scenario whether the election is declared null and they have a runoff or if the RG and the militias crack down oppressively or even really if Mousavi were to be declared the winner. At least nothing in the short term but maybe this can be a catalyst for reform away from strict theocratic rule some day.
Many in the State Dept feared that a Mousavi win would be setback in that a softer face on Iran lessens the motivation for tough sanctions while the ruling clerics continued their pursuit of their nuclear ambitions.
The US not meddle in foreign affairs? What's everyone thinking? It's what we do. It's why terrorists hostile to us exist and where did it come into prominence? Why... Iran with our imposition of Shah Pahlavi in '53 of course. Still, the recent charges by the ruling council of US meddling in their disputed elections is mostly an attempt to rally all sides against a common enemy to quell the unrest. The problem with that tactic is that the Iranian youth don't remember the Shah and more are progressive and Western culture friendly. The pro-Reform students and affluent of Iran are less likely to rally in the anti-US cause. Not that they like us, but to them we're more The Great Snidely Whiplash than we are The Great Satan.
We'll just have to see how it all plays out and I wouldn't look for any massive changes in the Iranian leadership scheme. Politically, we're likely to see a unity type of cabinet with Mousavi holding a position. Theocratically, it'll be interesting to see where Khameni's credibility stands when the smoke clears and where Rafsanjani materializes in the end. | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/18/2009 8:37:03 PM | I do agree that the US policy should be to stayout of the actual election and stay quiet on the results. However, the entire world (US included obviously) should condemn the violent crackdown that is occurring against the protesters.
OP, this is a decent article from today's WSJ regarding the US stance vs. the EU's stance...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124536786279629367.html
~ds~ | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/18/2009 8:44:18 PM |
Obama is behaving more as a adult than any other faction in this little drama.
What is gained by the President speaking out about voter fraud in another countries elections...How can we prove any voting irregularities.
The people protesting dont really want change...they want more freedoms. A loosening of strict social restrictions.
That's the way I see it as well. ~
The last thing needed in Iran at this point is outside mealding. ~ Let these people tend to their business!
I've always maintained "freedom is not a gift, something given" ~ You got to fight for it and know how much it cost and what it's worth.
We serve them best, to wait in the wings on this one and keep the rhetoric down.
and it that "should be" easy enough to do. ~ I fail to understand why McCain weighted in on it. ~ ~ What does he really know at this point? What can he prove?
and how does his voice help? ~~ at this point and time? What happen to "do no harm?"
The last thing the Iranian people needs at this point is for the Supreme Leader , Potentate. etc and Royal Guard to feel threaten and suspect the involvement of outside forces. ~ ~ This is all theirs! The chickens have came home to roost. Welcome to the 21st Century Ilatola, pull a rabbit out of a hat. Your subjects call for change and fair election.
Tomorrow being Friday and the 7th day ~ They expect larger crowds then ever.
We are witnessing history in the making ~ Old man whiskers has got to say something tomorrow. ~ It's time to eat crow and appeal to the will of the people or face mass revolt.
This could end poorly, we'll know by Sunday, maybe earlier.
Dance | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/18/2009 9:03:38 PM | Sure we shouldn't be backing any side of this election... But our President should tell the Iranian people that it is concerned about violations of their rights for a free and non-violent democratic process. It doesn't have to be hard nosed, just firm. We are coming off weaker than any other country other than those who approve of this.
I don't know how many have noticed... but a lot of the protesters were carrying signs saying in english that their votes should count. I'm curious? Why in English?
Even the UN and Canada has stepped to the plate, where we disappeared from the World scene. The US is a leader in the world... not a sleeper.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_presidential_election,_2009
close to the bottom of this article in Wikipedia it gives a brief statement what different leaders around the world have said...
A list of those with concerns, and a list with congratulations...
If you read what Gibbs and Obama's statements are... They are impressed... and excited.
Everyone else is concerned. | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/18/2009 10:46:14 PM | | Stay out of it and let Iran hammer out their own problems. The last thing we need is history repeating itself again. | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/19/2009 3:35:08 AM | recent history would suggest people power on the streets in numbers saying they've had enough .. works better than guns...
the Velvet revolutions in eastern Europe are proof of the fact people power... can topple dictators without shots being fired.....
you don't need armies to effect change.. you need citizens on the streets in passive demonstrations if your leaders fail you....  .. | |
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| Iranian Election Fallout
Posted: 6/19/2009 7:58:54 AM | I don't know much about politics, I am just an ordinary Iranian living in UK for most of my adult life and I thought I had no feelings towards my homeland. I am worried, disgusted at the images of the dead I see (have you seen the photo of the baby in the womb killed by the authorities on twitter?) I am outraged, really pissed off at the government and want to hit all the regimes ugly faces in at the moment.  I feel helpless and gutted that I can't do anything for my country.
Oh and regarding America, I think because they decide now they like Obama(as they think he's truly a Moslem at heart) they mullahs+the supreme leader Khamenei(who gave the *uckugly his stance anyway?) has called the British government the interfering Shaytan. | |
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