| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/27/2009 11:56:45 PM | Interesting story and a rare bit of truth from "official sources", even though his statement is considered unofficial - lol!
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.4452bed82adf3124e5884678e236d7fb.361&show_article=1
Although this includes those who are underemployed (I know a few - people now making minimum wage who were formerly making $40,000+), it also includes 6.7 million jobs that have simply gone away since the onset of the recession. Many of those are predicted never to return. That's probably about 13.5% of the working-age population whose jobs have vanished (25.8 million).
At the peak of the Great Depression, about 18.2 million were unemployed (25%). Today, 16% of the working population is about 30.6 million. What kind of jobs do you think will eventually pop up for these folks to get back to work? | |
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| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/28/2009 9:52:48 AM | Well, I found the 9.4%. Either way, kinda smears egg all over the Obama lovers faces who are claiming that Bush was so bad for unemployment and that Obama is righting all that is wrong.
http://hiring.monster.com/hr/hr-best-practices/market-intelligence/labor-statistics-trends/USA-unemployment.aspx
http://news.google.com/trends?q=unemployment&ctab=0&geo=us&date=all&sort=0 | |
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| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/28/2009 11:17:11 AM | | The great 1929 depression unemployment numbers did not hit the 25% figure till 4 years into it. we are at 18% (adjusted to the same U1,U2,U3 sampling used in 1935) and we are just one year into this so called recession. | |
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| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/28/2009 11:37:53 AM |
What kind of jobs do you think will eventually pop up for these folks to get back to work?
Maybe the Chinese will need gardeners for when they cash in their U.S. debt and take national monuments or something?
Maybe Obama will give them jobs reporting those who spread misinformation? Offer only 10 bucks a tip to make sure no one makes any up? Or would that be considered an employed volunteer?
Maybe reporters depending on how well they can paint the economic recovery based on negative numbers?
Maybe accountants and analysts depending on how rosy they can manipulate and/or interpret the numbers?
Unemployment officers?
Mercenaries? Africa is still having problems.
Community organizers?
Auto workers if the government has to start giving out 3500-4500 rebates every year to make sure the auto industry stays afloat?
Maybe the government can pay them to just buy the new cars they produced to keep the industry going?
Farmers? Agricultural? Or data, depending on the internet bill being considered?
Commune organizers? Maybe all the unemployed can live in the national forests together stealing pic-a-nic baskets and growing weed?
Wal-mart greeters? At least they'll get access to great government benefits.
Maybe they can all go into the military? Test new weapons and such?
Venezuelan or Saudi Arabian corruption specialists? We can have a buy one American get one free deal?
Maybe they will all get together and start a company that gets revenge on Mexico by sending all our unemployed south to take over as minorities in that country and demand things?
I love open ended questions. | |
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| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/28/2009 1:03:12 PM | CLARIFICATION: Error corrections...
For those who may be trying to figure out whose copyright I "stole" these figures from , they're mostly extrapolated. The Federal government considers a working age population to be between 18-64 years of age. The most recent figures for the United States indicates there are about 178 million in that age range.
http://biz.loudoun.gov/Portals/0/BEC%20Information%20Sheet.pdf
(Oops! - Calculation error - the 30.6 million in the OP should have been 28.5 - used the wrong bar on the graph. Revised figures below.)
That is roughly 59.3% of the total population. The U.S. population in 1933 was approximately 125.6 million people.
http://www.demographia.com/db-uspop1900.htm
Reliable source of population by age: 76,034,000 between 18-64:
http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/pre-1980/PE-11-1933.pdf
So the working age population in 1933 was 76 million, or 60.5% of the population. And 25% of that would have been: 19 million individuals unemployed in 1933. That makes current figures of 28.5 million unemployed even more dismal. The bottom line still is that we have almost 10 million more people unemployed now than at the nadir of the Great Depression and the bottom still hasn't been reached. | |
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| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/28/2009 6:20:53 PM | And for those of us who know a thing or two about these statistics, this comes as no surprise.
When they figure out the unemployment rate, it is almost always based on one thing. The amount of unemployment claims they have on file. That number never included those who had used up there unemployment, never filed for unemployment, or never attempted to work/will attempt to work. So stay at home parents are never figured into unemployment. People who have graduated some institute of learning and are looking for work are not included. The disabled (which is historically one of the highest underemployed groups)who are on SSI or SSDI are not figured into that number.
In fact, I'd argue that the 16.9% number is still probably low. And if you want to compare it to the time of the Great Depression, considering that these same groups were not represented then, or were discriminated against exponentially worse than they are now, your unemployment during that time quite possibly could've topped 50% in my opinion. | |
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| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/29/2009 4:24:43 PM | Unemployment shows people that are unemployed for 6 months or less unless they have changed that recently. So if you are unemployed for more than 6 months you are considered a discourage worker you are not counted.
Chris | |
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| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/30/2009 6:05:10 AM | Like I tell kids to do now days. Get a good education. I have nothing to fear because I am a Mathematican. 1/4 kids are not ready for college. That is the result from SAT and ACT scores. America needs to stop giving the world a free check. We need to focus on what is wrong in America? For starters the result of the stimulus package, CEOs still getting their 100 million pay packages. Fleecing of America.
Chris | |
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| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/30/2009 7:56:27 AM | Re: "I am a Mathematican. 1/4 kids are not ready for college. "
There's a quarter of a man in the market
He's got a quarter of a car
So it's easy to park it
He shops and he saves what he can
But he only saves a quarter
He's a quarter of a man
(David Lindley)
But seriously, you're right about corporate salaries and bonuses. We have a minimum wage, why not a maximum wage. Oh shyte...I hear capitalists screaming already. Run for the socialist hills. | |
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wudger
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Joined: 12/20/2007
Msg: 12 | |
| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/30/2009 9:25:39 AM |
Well, I found the 9.4%. Either way, kinda smears egg all over the Obama lovers faces who are claiming that Bush was so bad for unemployment and that Obama is righting all that is wrong.
right. 8 months into Obama's term and 12 months into possibly the worst economic crisis in history Obama created unemployment. did you notice that the melt down happened when BUSH WAS PRESIDENT? apparently not. you seem to have this odd idea that he's supposed to wave a magic wand and fix it all.
"hey this guy got elected and he couldn't fix eight years of horrendous mismanagement in a few months. whats the matter with him?"
you should just make a thread that says that anything that has gone wrong anywhere anytime in the universe is Obama's fault. it would save a lot of posting. | |
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| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/30/2009 10:01:20 AM | | Interesting how every conversation about Obama ends up with Liberals bashing Bush. Bush did not single handedly create this Economic situation he had a lot of help from Clinton and the Democrats. Everyone keeps calling this the worst economic crisis in history and what not to argue the fact that Obama and his policies haven't been working. They have spent more money than ever before to try to solve this problem and it has had little effect. If you want to assign the blame where is really should go it should go to the Democrats and Clinton for forcing lenders to loan to people who couldn't have qualified for Mortgages otherwise. These Mortgages are the Toxic assets that played a major part in creating the current economic situation.When will Liberals start arguing Obamas policies on their merits instead of constantly vilifying Bush?There are no threads about Obama that do not mention Bush in a negative way it is kind of sad that Obama supporters cant debate his stance and policies without demeaning Bush. | |
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| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/30/2009 10:41:26 AM | It's an accurate accounting of specific data which we have misleadingly labeled "unemployment rate". That is really a "unemployment benefits receiver rate".
I had to take it once for three months and took part-time for another three and it was a lifesaver, but after almost two years, my credit, my finances, are still in recovery. I almost would have been better off throwing in the towel, taking bancruptcy and moving back in with parents. Heck, getting pregnant by a stranger would have been more financially sound than wiping out my savings, raping my credit card and "surviving" on unemployment bennies.
After getting medical insurance and full time work, I find the costs of "my share" of medical costs barely make it worth it to work for a living.
I almost miss the days when I was disabled from a stroke. At least I had a decent place to live, food and a paid for car and I never had to worry about medical costs, never mind that it was medical care that disable me in the first place.
wow, *really* pmssing now. LOL | |
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| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/30/2009 11:10:51 AM |
We have a minimum wage, why not a maximum wage. Oh shyte...I hear capitalists screaming already. Run for the socialist hills.
If you've ever run a real business (not some part-time, money-losing, tax-deduction), then you'd know just how small the returns versus the output in resources can often be. Profit, not the lack of profit, is what makes the world turn. If you wish to deny a company and its owners a profit, then expect to be denied a job. If you are denied a job, which reduces government tax revenue, then expect not to get what you need from that government.
It's profit and the prospects of it, which encourages businesses to hire more workers and both are taxed to support those who find it too inconvenient to go out and earn their own living.
Take away realistic profit (not "reasonable profit" as seen through the eyes of a street beggar, but actual profit that makes the effort worthwhile), and you can take away everything else a society holds dear. That's what you're seeing right now - a government that is already deeply involved in taking away profit from all profitable sectors, egged on by street beggars with no clue. Result? A true unemployment rate that is increasing, even in the face of a so-called turnaround as declared by that very government.
Once you drain a business of all profit, one or more of several things will happen: Payrolls will be reduced or eliminated. The company will switch to tools which eliminate excess overhead - the largest of which is usually manpower. The company is liquidated and the owners simply stop providing products, services and jobs to the economy.
So, what jobs will magically appear to put 25 million-plus ( and counting) folks back to MEANINGFUL work? I can't think of any in the present conditions, and neither can the government. All I'm seeing are short-range fixes, no medium- or long-term plans for real prosperity as promised.
That's the importance of profit, which so many think is a luxury. | |
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| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/30/2009 12:36:17 PM | ^^^^^^ It looks that you forgot to mention that the traitorous corporations in their constant chase of profits exported millions of American jobs to other countries, and then they began to import their production from their overseas plants. That is one of the biggest creators of unemployment and one big drain in our economy.
Perhaps the people should start boycotting their products. Kind of what happened with gasoline when they wanted to suck us dry last year. People stopped using it, and the price kind of plummeted. | |
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| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/30/2009 1:08:31 PM | Sorry...You're talking "Big Business" - who are in bed with "Big Government". I'm talking small business - who still employ the majority of "the rest of us". And if you look into most big business, you'd find the ultimate ownership to be many small shareholders who expect BIG PROFITS.
That would be your neighbors and such. I did find it funny that the demand for cheap goods yet high profits resulted in the loss of jobs for some of those very small-time shareholders. Now they had no passive profit, OR a job to go to. Yes, I did say funny. Greed and sloth beget their own reward. The sad thing is many of them STILL have no real clue as to how it all happened and they continue to buy the very things, from the very places that eventually puts them out of work. Each of them is convinced that their own little derogatory purchase can't have much effect on the larger economy. That is who has been driving the flight of jobs all along. The very people losing them.
I don't know about anyone boycotting gasoline last year, though. The price dropped out of the bottom because people simply couldn't afford to buy it, so it was either drop the price or watch sales go to nothing as competitors dropped theirs. I know my gas bill went way down simply because of the slowdown in business. No demand = less travel. It already started creeping upward around here weeks ago. They're making more profit now than ever. | |
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wudger
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Joined: 12/20/2007
Msg: 19 | |
| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/30/2009 3:48:18 PM |
Interesting how every conversation about Obama ends up with Liberals bashing Bush. Bush did not single handedly create this Economic situation he had a lot of help from Clinton and the Democrats. Everyone keeps calling this the worst economic crisis in history and what not to argue the fact that Obama and his policies haven't been working. They have spent more money than ever before to try to solve this problem and it has had little effect. If you want to assign the blame where is really should go it should go to the Democrats and Clinton for forcing lenders to loan to people who couldn't have qualified for Mortgages otherwise. These Mortgages are the Toxic assets that played a major part in creating the current economic situation.When will Liberals start arguing Obamas policies on their merits instead of constantly vilifying Bush?There are no threads about Obama that do not mention Bush in a negative way it is kind of sad that Obama supporters cant debate his stance and policies without demeaning Bush.
when you start calling this mess obama's fault it is. conservatives can't run away from Bush fast enough. its as if we could just forget the last eight years. "never happened."
eight years you had to fix the mess you say Clinton created (never mind it was the Gramm-Rudman act you really mean which was largely passed by Phil Gramm R- Texas). eight years. with six of them with control of both houses of congress and did nothing. not a damn thing. paid for the war without raising taxes, then dumped the mess on the next guy that got elected. now its Clintons fault. its a good thing he got elected or you'd have to be blaming it on Carter.
and meantime the market is almost at 10k, housing sales are up significantly, corporate profits are rising, etc etc and all we get from the Right is nothings happening. took eight years to get where we are while you guys stared out the window. we sure aren't getting back in eight months. | |
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| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/30/2009 4:12:24 PM |
when you start calling this mess obama's fault it is. conservatives can't run away from Bush fast enough. its as if we could just forget the last eight years. "never happened."
That makes no sense to me Wudger. Bush was very much into big-government. Most conservatives that I know are emphatically not. Why do you insist that all conservatives embrace a man who stood for most things that they dislike? I don't dislike Obama because he is a democrat. I dislike him for what he is doing and says he plans to do and would like to do. I did not like or dislike Bush for his party. I liked him for 1 or 2 things, and despised him for many others. To say you like a president because of his party is to say you are rooting for a certain NASCAR because of the color of the sponsor logo painted on it's hood (I am not into NASCAR and so I may have made a mistake with that anology as I don't know much about it, but you get the point.). | |
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wudger
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Joined: 12/20/2007
Msg: 21 | |
| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/30/2009 5:12:21 PM |
"Most conservatives that I know are emphatically not."
if you insert a "now" between know and are thats probably true.
in 2000 you couldn't find a conservative who didn't like Bush. every single conservative pundit hailed his election. conservatives everwhere rejoiced. then the country went to hell and now you can't find anybody who liked him.
60 million people voted for this guy in that election. apparently they all left the country in the succeeding years.
I guess they didn't like it and left it. | |
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| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/30/2009 5:17:59 PM | I was glad (and still am) that he beat Kerry. That doesn't mean I thought he was a particularly swift canditate or that he was a good choice, only a better choice. I.E. I would rather drive to school, but if forced to choose between jogging or biking, I would bike.
I would further remind you that @ 90% of America supported the "War on Terror" in the beginning (what everyone views as Bush's major mistake, among plenty of others). Are you going to try to convince me that 90% of America is Republican? | |
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| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/30/2009 6:06:13 PM |
and meantime the market is almost at 10k, housing sales are up significantly, corporate profits are rising, etc etc and all we get from the Right is nothings happening. took eight years to get where we are while you guys stared out the window. we sure aren't getting back in eight months.
I noticed "employment is growing" isn't among this short list of "indicators". The behavior of the market (currently at 9544) looks more like bait for unsophisticated investors before the baiters take profits, as happened two weeks earlier when it went from about 9420 to 9130. The housing sales and starts are being driven by the promise of an $8,000 tax credit (I know that's what everyone's been asking me about when they call about a mortgage) which goes away on November 30. Builders are very nervous about what will happen on December 1. That tax credit will no longer be applicable to their then-existing inventory.
Are you saying that overall, corporate profits are rising? - You seem to indicate so. If that's the case, what's the source of this corporate comeback info? I'd like to take a look at it. I've only heard about a relatively few beneficiaries of the Bailout and short-term programs whose profits are actually rising. The expense of those programs have yet to be paid for. While a number of stocks closed higher, these do not automatically mean higher corporate profits. I would think many companies showing more paper profit in recent months have expense-cutting (like layoffs) to thank for that, rather than a jump in sales.
All you have to do is check out the jobs listings on Craigslist to see that very, very few companies are doing any hiring. Pay for the same jobs I've been looking at is actually lower now than a year or two ago. The latest consumer confidence report on Friday took a bit of a dump, ending lower than July. Wall street was happy because it had been forecast to be lower than it was.
Consumer spending, likewise, was projected to be lower than it ended, but mainly thanks to the Cash for Clunkers program - which has ended, and not any natural turnaround. It fell a mere 1 percent from July. I repeat - FELL, not rose. And based upon that smaller-than-expected loss, stocks were happy, though they also closed lower than the previous session.
These are all so far just band-aid measures and we've yet to see real elements of a recovery, nor any prospects that lead to long-term recovery. We're basically watching (government) people with empty checkbooks and staggering existing debt running around saying, "I'll buy it!". People are now retroactively saving for a long financial rainy season and the only things they seem to be spending on are fire sales, while sellers are taking it in the shorts. So many fire sales that the numbers are overtaking historical norms and statisticians hold them up as recovery - they aren't.
That doesn't quite yet paint the bright future I'm seeing portrayed by some. So far, like Seinfeld, it's a show about nothing, with a number of very bad episodes still expected. Okay, so take away the artificial stimuli and the Bonkers-for-Clunkers and the tax credit (tax losses) for houses, and tell us - what else is happening? Don't give me broad indicators like "stocks rising" - but what else specifically is happening?
New manufacturing plants? Innovations that are leading to outside (global) sales? New technologies that will put millions to work permanently (1 year plus) with real living wages? Idiot-proof, safely-growing investment vehicles? Those are the kinds of things needed to lead to a real recovery. Unless stuff like that is lined up, once the government freebies stop, so will the buying and any so-called recovery. | |
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| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/30/2009 6:42:15 PM | | I will hand it to Obama on one thing, no matter how insanely ammo and firearms prices spiked, people still took them off the shelves. Industry-wide sales margins increased by 500% as what could only be called a direct result of Obama's election. So ironically, he stimulated the part of the economy most that his supporters and he lobbyed against quite vigorously. Part of me thinks that is why he has left gun-ownership alone and even voted pro-gun on a few issues. He would be a tool to injure the biggest booming segment of the economy we have that is still heavily American in many instances. | |
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| Fed official says real unemployment rate is 16%, not 9.4.
Posted: 8/30/2009 11:35:28 PM | Apparently the only way people can make Obama look good is to compare him to SOME aspects of Bush's administration. When done accurately, even some of that fails.
So True!!!!!
Right now Obama is actually about One Percentage Point lower in approval ratings than Bush was his first August in office (Pre-9/11)
In a few weeks comparing Approval ratings will be a bit hard.
It will be interesting to see if Obama's approval does pick up and goes down even further..
I have a feeling that if Obama and the elected Democrats do push the Health Care Reform through with the Reconciliation method Obama just might end up coming close to or lower than Bush's ending poll ratings before 2009 is over." | |
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