| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/3/2009 4:49:57 PM | The following story was out today............
Tue Nov 3, 2:00 pm ET
WASHINGTON (AFP) – Some 700 million people worldwide, or more than all the adults of North and South America combined, think the grass is greener on the other side of the fence and want to permanently move to another country, a poll showed Tuesday.
Residents of sub-Saharan African countries were the most likely to want to move abroad permanently, the polls conducted in 135 countries between 2007 and this year by Gallup showed.
On average, 38 percent of the adult population in sub-Saharan Africa, or around 165 million people, said they would up stakes and head for another country if they had the chance.
The most popular destination was the United States, where nearly a quarter of the 700 million -- around 165 million people -- said they would like to settle.
In joint second were Britain, Canada and France, each being named as the preferred destination of around 45 million people.
Thirty-five million said they would go to Spain, 30 million to Saudi Arabia, and 25 million each to Australia or Germany.
The least likely to want to emigrate were Asians -- only one in 10 Asian adults said they would move to another country.
Nearly 260,000 people aged 15 years and older were surveyed, either by phone or face-to-face, for the poll, which has a margin of error of around five percent.
If the only place where I could get information was this site, I would be CERTAIN that this poll would have said that the USA was a $hithole, don't bother, and yet when they ask the actual people who have a vested interest, the ones who would actually do the moving................. Guess who comes out on top....... and by over a 3-1/2 to 1 margin.......
Somebody quick, WISE THEM UP..........
Paul K | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/3/2009 10:35:03 PM | The percentage should be reported. You can't say that of 260,000 asked, millions said anything. I understand the statistics but for accuracy it is incorrect to state it that way.
Being a better place than some other place, that means only as much as how bad the other place is. It helps patriots brag, but aside from that, it just says there are some really bad places to live. That does not work to justify the badness of the better place, which is how it is presented. There is good here, sure, and let's be happy about that. And also face what needs improvement and not deflect criticism by pointing out the fact that people want to come here to escape where else they live. | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/4/2009 7:50:27 AM | Sometimes Paul, the best place is NOT where you are now! 
Sure...a lot of people want to get out of their country. This should allow North Americans to have a clue as to how bad it really is there! Compared to here.....they truly are in a hole. We keep trying to make our place better...but it seems we are on a sinking ship, at times!
Some of the people over there just don't get the idea that everything is not "roses and chocolate" over here. You don't get the right to shoot your neighbour for stealing your goats. You don't get the right to have multiple wives. You must pay taxes, and usually have to pay someone to fill out the complicated forms involved!
I guess the security is something attractive to them. Free schooling and such. But they give up a lot of their independence as human beings.
Would I leave where I am? Oh yes.....right quick too!
Where would I go? I ain't telling!
Would I worry about a gallup poll? Depends. I find they usually have a very urban slant on things. Never a rural one! A bit to "politically correct" for me. | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/4/2009 6:54:20 PM | All polls can be and ARE being rigged ….. the only weight a poll measures is “did your favorite” came out ontop? …end of story.
Peace ….the FairyHealer | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/5/2009 9:07:21 PM | Polls are nothing more than the preselected responses of people with nothing better to do than answer questions from a pollster.
They really only serve the purpose of giving somebody something to talk about. | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/5/2009 10:05:23 PM | Sorry Paul but you're reasoning is lacking here.
How did you come to the conclusion that so many people in the world think the US is bad place to go ? It's the number one choice ... you're not making any sense here.
Apart from that , people have different reasons for wanting to go to different places.
If half of your family lived in the US and the other half lived in , say , Germany , if you wanted to move , where would your most likely country of destination be ? That doesn't make France or Australia sh!tholes , it just means they're not the number one choice.
As for the other posters' comments concerning the accuracy of polls ... don't be so cynical.
Yes , polls can be "rigged" to some degree which is why the questions asked are also usually listed along with the results. A proper poll will also account for any potential bias however unintended. Dismissing all polls as being garbage because there is an element of imprecision inherent in the process doesn't mean they don't do exactly what they're meant to do ... give a rough estimate of popular opinion. That's why the poll conductors are generally held to account should their polls prove completely out of sync with what other pollsters are saying. As such , a more accurate picture of popular opinion is usually the mean of several poll results asking more or less the same question.
So can polls be wrong ? Of course they can. Are all polls wildly misleading ? Rarely (and by rarely , I mean like almost never although it does happen from time to time) Citing any number of polls that proved to be wildly inaccurate should be contextualized by also citing the total number of polls conducted , their stated margins of error , and how precise they were. What you'll find is that polls are generally surprisingly accurate when they're released. | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/5/2009 10:16:42 PM | Hey Fun
You must be rather new to this site, as the VAST majority, and easily the most vocal that post on these subjects have a rather low opinion of the USA. The commentary at the bottom of the was said in sarcasm. I agree with the poll, and think that what gives it more gravitas is that they asked the people who would be the ones that would make the move if they could.
I agree with you about the veracity of most polls. As a matter of fact, it is rare that a poll is way off. This particular poll had the USA as the favorite place to imigrate to by a factor of 3-1/2. Even if it was off quite a bit, that is a very telling statistic. What the folks that think all polls are bunk don't understand is that if the polling company gets way wrong, they lose business........... Your reputation in the polling industry is about only as good as your last poll. You put out two stinkers in a row, your future in the polling business is in jeapordy. Not just that, a polling company has to be very careful how they word their results, as that can very easily skew the opinion that the poll actually gives.
For a poll to be largely innacurate, the questions have to be written in such a way as to be confusing, or leading towards one particular conclusion, or both. Properly word polls are usually rather fair.
Paul K | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/5/2009 10:39:02 PM | We've been reading each others' messages for a few years now ... so uh no , I'm not a newbie.
That said , the sarcasm escaped me. Sorry ... it's still not clear to me either to be honest but okay , I'll say cheers to that anyway.
I simply find that people who snort and turn their noses up at the very mention of the word 'poll' are largely suffering from an ignorance of their own creation. It's this currently trendy cynicism for so many things that discuss political matters that irks me. Some folks will always say 'black' to somebody else's 'white' depending on the subject. For some , polls are one of those subjects. It's irritating to see such ignorance. | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/6/2009 6:30:35 AM | I think that polls are going more along the lines of a "self fulfilling prophecy" They do the poll, and announce the results. With a large "sheeple" mentality running rampant, everyone jumps on the bandwagon. So many undecided, and those who's opinion goes with the polls tend to make sure they are on the "winning team", whereas those who are not say to themsleves "Lost again...maybe next time".
A lot of people DO want to go to the US. A lot like Canada. Almost any country where their freedoms are legislated by law is a place they want to go. Or where there is food, schooling, freedom of religion...whatever.
A lot of people still have the stars in their eyes when they hear "America", and don't realize that it can be a harsh and cruel area to live and work in, especially if you don't realize that you can't just keep on doing the things you are normally doing. You cna't just step to the curb and take a whiz. OR drop your pants and squat in public. (I've seen this kind of behaviour...they don't know that we don't allow that.)
They don't understand why they can't marry off their daughters or have their clitoris removed "like back in the old country". There is a case open now about a guy running over his daughter because she became "too westernized".
They want their customs recognized and to be left alone. They can't do it in the old country because times are changing.
Polls also ask some odd questions at times. Heres a poll for males! "Do you still beat your wife"? No matter how you answer, the poll can say some pretty negative things! | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/6/2009 9:58:47 AM | I remember my first lecture in probability in university. Our professor gave us an example. He said that in a tabloid newspaper, it would quote that in a poll, 52% of people voted Conservative, giving the impression that most people would vote Conservative, and that the Conservatives would win the next election. He then pointed out that in The Times, a more highbrow paper that gives a bit more technical info, it said that in the poll, 52% of people voted Conservative, with a 90% confidence interval of +/-5%. He then explained that what that meant was that there was 90% probability that people would vote somewhere between 47% and 57%, and with 10% probability that people would vote anywhere else, from 0-46%, or 58%-100%, so at most we could say that we were only 90% confident that most people might vote Conservative, or most might not vote Conservative, with 10% possibility that no-one would vote Conservative, or that everyone would. This showed that you just cannot trust statistics, unless you really read up on it properly and really think about what the details mean. As the saying goes "the devil is in the details".
But as far as the reality goes, there are lots and lots of people who want to move to the West. The West enjoys a far greater standard of living than in many countries, and even cleaners often live better than people in good jobs in very poor countries. It's been said that the average British person has a far better standard of living, than even Henry VIII.
But, there is another side to it. If you're really in a top position in a poor country, you can very often get almost anything you want. So many of them aren't the ones who want to leave. It's just that there are a huge amount of people who aren't in a top position in their country, and compared to the way they live now, the UK and the US seems practically a paradise.
I'm constantly amazed at what Americans say, because to live the way ordinary Americans seem to live, you'd have to be incredibly wealthy in the UK, in the top 5% of the country. | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/6/2009 10:53:17 AM | Hey Scorpion
After I read the article about the poll, I sat and thought why it was that the US would be considered as the premiere place to move to by those who are looking for a better life. I understand that there are places that would be nicer to live in if you have money and are retired.................
The only word that comes to mind is OPPORTUNITY. There seems to be a pattern in that a large percentage of those who imigrate here from other countries where they have no way up and out, open up businesses, buy property, and prosper. Meanwhile, there are Americans who are third an fourth generation, and they complain about how it is impossible to buy a house. Yet, they have 3 huge flat screen tv's that they are paying for, two cars that they are paying for, a boat that they are paying for, two week vacations that they take all year to pay for........ Then they moan that they can't afford to buy a house. The opportunity is here, but it takes WORK, thrift and sense of working for the future.
Enough preaching, even though it is Friday.
Paul K | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/6/2009 11:59:41 AM | RE Msg: 11 by Paul K:
After I read the article about the poll, I sat and thought why it was that the US would be considered as the premiere place to move to by those who are looking for a better life. I understand that there are places that would be nicer to live in if you have money and are retired.................
The only word that comes to mind is OPPORTUNITY. There seems to be a pattern in that a large percentage of those who imigrate here from other countries where they have no way up and out, open up businesses, buy property, and prosper. Meanwhile, there are Americans who are third an fourth generation, and they complain about how it is impossible to buy a house. Yet, they have 3 huge flat screen tv's that they are paying for, two cars that they are paying for, a boat that they are paying for, two week vacations that they take all year to pay for........ Then they moan that they can't afford to buy a house. The opportunity is here, but it takes WORK, thrift and sense of working for the future. It's true that the issue is opportunity.
If you are moderately well off for an American, you can go to Brazil, buy a mansion, and live like a king. But the socioeconomic inequality in such countries is huge. If you aren't part of the rich set, then you really have an extremely hard time getting in. It's really hard to even move out of the slums, and your kids are just as stuck. Only a few made it out, like Maradonna. But if you're in America, then even if you are poor, there is a way to reach higher, and if you cannot, then your kids can go to high school, then university, and become rich lawyers and doctors.
But if you've come from a country where you've been working 14 hours a day, 6 days a week, for barely enough to eat, and clothes little more than rags, then working hard is not really an issue. It's second nature to you. | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/6/2009 12:15:48 PM | In the late '50's, early '60's it was very fashionable in So Cal to have a Japanese gardener, as they were reputed to do the best work. Today, you never see any Japanese gardeners......... I learned why while in college. I had a very good friend whose parents were Japanese, and his father had a gardening business. What he told me is that all of the japanese gardeners sent their kids to college, and they are now doctors, accountants, dentists, etc. The oppourtunity is here, but like you said, it requires the hard work that a lot of imigrants look at as normal, and a lot of those born here just don't want to do, because a very large percentage have an entitlement mentality. And an entitlement mentality will get you nowhere quick.
Paul K | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/6/2009 12:28:47 PM | | ^ A book that you may find interesting is 'Outliers' by Malcolm Gladwell. It gives a number of other examples (and some explanation as to why) that are similar to your japanese gardener story. | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/6/2009 3:37:08 PM | | I took my own poll regarding the percentage of married american males who resorted to violence. My poll showed that 100% of them at one time or another had resorted to violence in their marriage. There was only 1 question on the poll. It was...Do you still beat your wife? | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/6/2009 3:39:58 PM | ^^^^
That is the oldest example on the books of a question that can only have one answer............
And your point is?
Paul K | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/6/2009 4:33:14 PM | Sometimes what is being expressed in the results of poll, is just an indication of who had the best marketing strategy.
How many kids, taking a poll, would choose McDonalds for dinner every night over a fresh zesty salad.
And I am talking about one zesty salad here. | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/6/2009 5:37:06 PM | ^That's why I disagree with the assertion that polls are "self-fulfilling prophecies". The reasons for any poll to have a bias are not directly attributable to the poll questions or even the methodology. If McDonalds has the best advertising campaigns then so be it ... it doesn't mean the poll is wrong.
As Paul K pointed out , the question can indeed determine the outcome of any particular poll. As I pointed out earlier , this is also exactly why the question itself is supposed to be listed along with the results. No think-tank worth its salt would fail to cite the questions asked along with the answers. | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/7/2009 4:54:07 AM | Polls are meaningless and only reflect the results intended by the sponsor.
They are designed to miss-inform and lead people in a plan direction away from the facts. Follow the money and you will find the poll results before the poll is taken.
Has anyone ever been called and taken part in a poll? I never have.
If a poll result was taken from 500 responses….how many calls were made to find 500 people who answered the phone and the poll questions and what area of the country did that simple ?????????????
The Nielsen Rating only polls 25,000 homes to determine the TV rating for over 307,000,000 people. The results are based on revenue……the shows that stay are the ones sponsors are willing to pay the most for to advertise. | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/7/2009 5:47:14 AM |
Polls are meaningless and only reflect the results intended by the sponsor.
Yes and no. Polls that are directly ran by organizations such as political parties, special interest groups do tend to be biased polls. Which are likely due to two reasons. The structure of the questions, that really trap people in answering one way. The other reason is survey techniques. Are they trueley taking a random sample? So lets say there is a survey about gun control, are they randomly dialing phone numbers or are they asking people as they leave the gun club?
They are designed to miss-inform and lead people in a plan direction away from the facts. Follow the money and you will find the poll results before the poll is taken.
A properly ran poll and survey will not have that effect. There are many polls that are good and sound, just ignore the ones conducted by special interest groups, etc.
Has anyone ever been called and taken part in a poll? I never have.
Yes, I have.
Again each poll randomly samples the population. They don't cross people off of the list if they have been surveyed before, each poll is a clean sweep. So if the total population is 30 million, then the odds of getting selected is slim. Almost like getting selected for jury duty!
If a poll result was taken from 500 responses….how many calls were made to find 500 people who answered the phone and the poll questions and what area of the country did that simple ?????????????
They usually have that kind of information available. Having experience with conducting surveys for statistical purposes. Some surveys have been scrapped because of poor response rates among. It depends on who you are surveying. If the population you want to know information about is small, the results are likely to be based on a small set of responses. Though there is a point where even the target population is too small for polling and easier to essentially try to do a mini-census on them. But it's worth noting that as long as the sample is still random and they get enough responses it will still be worth it.
However, if the poll is a nation wide poll on a topic that concerns everyone., such as do you like candidate A or candidate B...the 500 responses would be garbage.
The Nielsen Rating only polls 25,000 homes to determine the TV rating for over 307,000,000 people. The results are based on revenue……the shows that stay are the ones sponsors are willing to pay the most for to advertise.
Nielsen has become less reliable over recent years, not because of survey and polling. But people viewing habits has changed. Tivo, DVR's, internet has altered how people watch TV and that's why the ratings may not reflect the truth.
25,000 homes is enough for an accurate survey. Look in most basic statistics text books, there is a point where even if you sample more and more people the results are highly likely to be the same as a smaller sample. So if they decide to sample 50,000 homes, the results are probably going to be the same as the 25,000 home sample. I have seen it happen. So why would Nielsen Ratings spend more time and money on surveying more people if they know that they are going to get the same results with the 25,000 sample?
The 25,000 will give them a nice normal distribution of information. If they did a 50,000 or even a 100,000 household sample. I am willing to bet good money that the difference in results are statistically insignificant. | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/7/2009 8:01:28 AM |
...Again each poll randomly samples the population. They don't cross people off of the list if they have been surveyed before, each poll is a clean sweep. So if the total population is 30 million, then the odds of getting selected is slim. Almost like getting selected for jury duty!...
They are not completely random.
You are correct that your chances of getting a call from a pollster is slim but it is not completely random.
Poling companies keep records of good numbers (ones which people are either not on the do not call list and have answered questions in the past) and will keep calling the same people.
So polls only reflect the views and opinions of people with nothing better to do than answer the phone and respond to questions from a stranger. | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/7/2009 11:27:35 AM |
"Polls" can be made to say anything that the pollster wants to hear.
Every time you hear someone mention a poll, say "Fuck You Frank".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If9EWDB_zK4 | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/7/2009 12:44:19 PM |
Poling companies keep records of good numbers (ones which people are either not on the do not call list and have answered questions in the past) and will keep calling the same people.
Okay, I'm going to have to ask for a soruce or some proof of this.
I'm sure the shaddy ones that are ran by interest groups probably do something like that. But I wouldnt go as far as paint the whole polling busniess with the same brush because of the bad ones. | |
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| How much weight should polls be given?
Posted: 11/7/2009 2:35:07 PM | Its like that little experiment done at camp where you sit around the fire. One person wispers a story to the person next to them, whom in turn passes it along...reinterpreting things and adding thier own thoughts, until it comes full circle twisted from its original form.
Gallup conducted the poll summerized in the OP (you can find Gallups own summery here: http://www.gallup.com/poll/124028/700-Million-Worldwide-Desire-Migrate-Permanently.aspx )
The AFP news service does thier own summery, which is provided in the OP. It hits certain key findings, but leaves out others even rounding some values.
Others read the AFP summery and start adding thier own input and conclusions...maybe telling friends, coworkers, etc "Did you hear about that new poll? Showed 75% of the world thinks we are a sh!thole!"...Which in turn effects others views of a poll they will likely only ever have word of mouth knowledge of.
And on and on it goes, shaped by ones own selection bias. Ones own bias is deemed more true/accurite posibly than what the facts support...and you end up with rejection of the facts entirely. And people playing the "polls are fake/bias/inaccurite" card...sad really. | |
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