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Show ALL Forums  > Sports  > Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....      Home login  
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 Paul K
Joined: 3/10/2006
Msg: 1
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Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....Page 1 of 1    
I read the above and wondered just how much that would affect the points spread.......

I think that Manning is just too much to stop at this point in his career. I am pissed at Favre, as a Manning/Favre showdown would have been epic........

Paul K
 SteelCity1981
Joined: 8/16/2005
Msg: 2
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Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....
Posted: 2/3/2010 10:14:59 PM
Yeah that's all we need is more Favre drama with the ongoing "WILL HE OR WON'T HE RETIRE AFTER THIS GAME" garbage leading up to the Superbowl. The less Farve I see the better. The man has lost all of my respect when he dogged Greenbay with his drama queen wishy washy retirement BS, just to jump on the Jets bandwagon and do the same BS that he did to Greenaby to the Jets a year later.
 skoochie
Joined: 4/29/2008
Msg: 3
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Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....
Posted: 2/3/2010 10:55:58 PM
Who does it say will win this SB? Also curious as to which SB it got wrong. My guess is the Pats/Gspots game.

Seeing as how a football game is comprised of random events, I doubt Madden is able to predict with a fair amount of certainty. Or any certainty at that. I mean the game does have a fifty percent chance of being right every time. Though five of six is impressive, I'd chalk it up to coincidence.
 Paul K
Joined: 3/10/2006
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Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....
Posted: 2/4/2010 1:14:19 AM
I don't know if "prediction" is the the correct term. What happens is that the two teams are loaded in the game, and it plays both sides, at least thats what I have been told. I think that it would be much more accurate if they let the game be played at least, say, 20 times, and see if there is one team that consistantly wins. Now that would be interesting.

Having spent as good deal of time in casinos, whenever I see 5 of 6 on anything, my ears perk up. However it is interesting in that I watched a roulette wheel one time for about 4 hours, and kept track. The particular one I watched had a little better than half chance of hitting red. I factored the green/double green out. I talked to the dealers while there, and they told me that certain wheels did have a tendency for go more one color than the other, and they chalk it up to some mechanical anomoly...........

While not totally buying the explanation of coincidence for the 5 of 6 run, I would be a lot less inclined to believe in coincidence if the game kept at this pace. What is interesting is that as the years go by, the games will just get better and more accurate. The problem in believing the game fully is that what they are compared to is the frailty of the human body, and just plain 'ol dumb luck. And there are no odds on that.

Paul K
 ratherBgolfing
Joined: 8/10/2008
Msg: 5
Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....
Posted: 2/4/2010 11:18:36 AM
Let me guess... the only one the Madden game got wrong was the Giants' win over New England in '08.
This shouldn't come as a surprise: The favourite won all the others.
 skoochie
Joined: 4/29/2008
Msg: 6
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Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....
Posted: 2/4/2010 11:34:27 AM
Are you implying Madden Football is a relyable source as a prognaosticator of Super Bowls?
There's way too many variables the game can't take into account. If Manning or Brees goes out in the first seven minutes, the game is pretty much settled. If there's a runback on the opening kickoff followed by a fumble recovery returned for a TD, the game is pretty much over. There's way too many intangibles for a computer to handle for it to be a relyable source. The game will run plays based on the percentage of their effectiveness, whereas Payton will call trick plays. I doubt the game is running half back options or flee flickers like I suspect Payton will.
 Paul K
Joined: 3/10/2006
Msg: 7
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Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....
Posted: 2/4/2010 4:40:31 PM
The following is the article that I got the idea for the toic...........


Madden NFL popped into headlines today, predicting a sunny Super Bowl win for the New Orleans Saints, and eight months of winter for the Indianapolis Colts.

Every year, Electronic Arts runs a Super Bowl simulation within their video game, Madden NFL. And five out of the last six years, the game's results have predicted the Super Bowl winner correctly. The simulation's only miss was the Giants' Super Bowl XLII victory over the Patriots, and even Nostradamus couldn't have seen that one coming.

This year, Madden NFL predicts a close Saints victory, with a final score of 35 - 31 over the Colts. According to the game, Drew Brees will be named the MVP after passing for 299 yards and three touchdowns. Reggie Bush will account for two more touchdowns, one rushing, and one on a punt return.

On the other side of the football, Colts' QB Peyton Manning will throw for 322 yards and three touchdowns in a great-but-not-good-enough performance.

But before Saints fans start celebrating and Colts fans call for a new coach, it's important to note that the Madden simulation only takes into account the perceived skill levels of each player on the field. Intangibles such as nerves and inexperience are not reflected. And according to this G4 video of the simulation, neither is Dwight Freeney's questionable ankle, as the Colts' defensive superstar can clearly be seen running and jumping down the tunnel at the head of his team before the game.

But whether he plays in the real Super Bowl or not, Madden NFL sees the Colts limping home on Sunday, and all of New Orleans jumping for joy.
 itechman63
Joined: 7/7/2005
Msg: 8
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Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....
Posted: 2/5/2010 1:51:12 PM

The simulation's only miss was the Giants' Super Bowl XLII victory over the Patriots, and even Nostradamus couldn't have seen that one coming.


Oddly though, it was a bigger surprise to me that it had to come down to a Giants receiver catching a pass against his helmet.

That wasn't that big of an upset because the Giants matched up with the Patriots better than anyone else. The Giants had the best front four on D and didn't have to blitz so the LBs and Secondary could stay in coverage and especially contain the screen/flat passing attack of the Patriots. The Giants had a possession offense with a good TE and a change-up rushing attack. If you were to start from scratch and build a team with the attributes to beat that season's Patriots, you would have built the NY Giants.

While most of the last 6 have been pretty good games, there has been a talent disparity in the context of how a video game is designed.
 ratherBgolfing
Joined: 8/10/2008
Msg: 9
Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....
Posted: 2/5/2010 2:01:08 PM
That wasn't that big of an upset because the Giants matched up with the Patriots better than anyone else

The Pats were favoured by 11.5 points. Say whatever you like in hindsight, it WAS that big of an upset.
 skoochie
Joined: 4/29/2008
Msg: 10
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Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....
Posted: 2/5/2010 4:11:08 PM

The Giants had a possession offense with a good TE

Shockey was injured most of that year and didn't play the SB.
 newdejavu
Joined: 9/11/2009
Msg: 11
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Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....
Posted: 2/7/2010 7:05:45 PM
Make it 6 out of 7 for the madden game. The score wasn't as accurate as last year; but getting the winner right is all that matters. Maybe something to keep an eye on for next year!
 SteelCity1981
Joined: 8/16/2005
Msg: 12
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Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....
Posted: 2/7/2010 7:17:11 PM
Most of these Madden win predictions can be logically made by your typical football fan. Picking who will win is a lot easier then picking what the spread will be. So while Madden is 6-7 for picking who will win the Superbowl, picking the score is a whole diff story.
 nipoleon
Joined: 12/27/2005
Msg: 13
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Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....
Posted: 2/8/2010 2:32:36 AM
Statistically, the team which wins the game straight up, will also beat the point spread 80% of the time.
That means, if you've got a system which will reliably predict the winner 6 of 7 times, it will also pick the spread 5 of 7 times.
And, that's just money in the bank.
 starrybug12
Joined: 9/23/2009
Msg: 14
Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....
Posted: 2/8/2010 5:22:43 AM
Well, . . . Madden got it right again. I was kinda skeptical, even though I'm from Louisiana, I was rooting for the Saints, but scared they would break my heart again. Lol. Rock on saints! Who Dat!
On a side note - Is it true that Peyton Manning has contracted "Brett Farve Syndrome"? Lol.
 skoochie
Joined: 4/29/2008
Msg: 15
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Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....
Posted: 2/8/2010 10:21:17 AM
I too was skeptical, but the game picked agianst the favored team this year and got it right. Can't say the game just goes with the odds makers.
 SteelCity1981
Joined: 8/16/2005
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Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....
Posted: 2/8/2010 12:10:20 PM

Statistically, the team which wins the game straight up, will also beat the point spread 80% of the time.


Then you should be a millionaire and so should a lot of people that bet if that's the case........
 nipoleon
Joined: 12/27/2005
Msg: 17
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Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....
Posted: 2/10/2010 4:04:22 AM
The reason the straight up winner of the game also beats the spread 80% of the time is because 2 or 3 games each week the underdog will win the game. That's what pushes it to 80%. All you have to do is figure out which underdogs will jump up and win the game outright.

But, picking straight up winners isn't all that easy. In over 20 years of studying pro football I have not yet found a way to analyse statistics which will reliably pick straight up winners more than between 60-65%.
80% of 65% is only 52%, and that wont even beat the vigorish.
Even if you had a system which would pick straight winners 70%, it would pick against the spread only 56% of the time and that's barley making it worth the bettors time.

If the Madden system of running game simulations is picking 6 out of 7 of the last Super Bowls, then it's picking the winner 86% of the time. Which means, it should be able to pick against the spread 69%, and that would definitely be profitable.

I'm willing to bet that a few people will try to use the Madden simulation to pick all 256 regular season games next year. If they start winning regularly, it would completely change football betting.
But then, the bookies would start using it too, and everyone would be back to square one.
 SteelCity1981
Joined: 8/16/2005
Msg: 18
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Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....
Posted: 2/11/2010 2:20:57 PM
But that's not the case it's picking the winner but not the scores accuretly to beat the spread, which is why i stated it's a lot easier to pick the winner then to pick the winner and the spread of the score.
 MGMLION
Joined: 4/29/2008
Msg: 19
Superbowl.... madden game picked 5 of last 6 winners....
Posted: 2/11/2010 3:03:10 PM
The reason the straight up winner of the game also beats the spread 80% of the time is because 2 or 3 games each week the underdog will win the game. That's what pushes it to 80%. All you have to do is figure out which underdogs will jump up and win the game outright.



The underdog team gets inside the number more than 2 or 3 times each week against the spread here are some examples of the 2009 season

Week 1 9-7 Favor of the Favorite
Week 2 10-6 Favor of the Underdog
Week 3 10 -5 Favor of the Favorite 1 Push
Week 4 10-4 Favor of the Favorite
Week 5 8-6 Favor of the Underdog
Week 6 9-5 Favor of the Underdog

So the first 6 weeks into the NFL games against the spread 89 Games the Favorite coverd 46 times and the Underdog covered 43 times.
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