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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/2/2006 7:42:43 PM | Has anyone done any reading about this? There are many good websites out there. After reading about it for a few years, it has constantly been in the back of my mind.
Doing a simple google search for Peak Oil will give you many links to check out if you are interested. I was just hoping this thread will allow me to speak to some other people that also have been thinking about this.
If it makes others aware of the problem than that's fine too. I'd just like more people to chat with about this though.
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/4/2006 7:55:36 AM | Because we don't know what the total of the world's oil resources are.... because there are places which haven't been explored and/or drilled yet... peak Oil Production is just a theory and we haven't reached it yet...
It's something we may never know until years after it happens. Good scary thing to help sell a book and make you a millionaire though. I'd recommend it as a topic. | |
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/5/2006 12:52:06 PM | It doesn't matter what the world's total petroleum resources are. What matters is that it's a fixed resource. Whatever's in the ground is it. When we pump all of that out, it's gone. Finished. End of the Petroleum Era.
But before then, we'll reach a point where we can't pump it out of the ground fast enough to meet consumption. It sounds like a recipe for disaster, consuming something that nobody's making any more of, and it is. All hell will break loose at that point.
In 1956, Marion King Hubbert predicted that American 48-state oil extraction would reach a peak and start down in 1970. He missed by one year; it peaked in 1971. Our inability to meet our demand with domestic supplies enabled the OPEC oil embargo of 1973 and the price of oil went from $3 per barrel to $30/bbl in less than a year. That behavior, typical of any fixed resource, is now called "Hubbert's Peak". It's relatively straightforward mathematics and whether the world's petroleum resources are small or large doesn't change the fact that supply will peak and start down, it only influences when it will peak.
So when the current forecasts say that a peak is likely around 2020-2025, we ought to take heed and think about preventing another crisis. Consider what will happen if gasoline jumps from $3/gallon to $30/gallon, the same way a barrel of oil did in 1973. | |
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/5/2006 12:56:48 PM | douglas: I agree that it's dangerous.. but are you saying that the most oil ever taken out of the ground was in 1971?
I don't quite understand...
Thanks in advance...
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/5/2006 2:28:29 PM | Here is one way to solve the faulty perception of limited energy resources;
Loremo debuts 150 mpg concept car in Geneva
The Loremo LS sports vehicle, a light weight vehicle weighing in at 450kg, and features a 150+ mpg turbodiesel, with single forward opening ‘gate’ door (incorporates steering wheel), and capable of 100mph. Other options include, GPS, MP3, onboard computer and air-conditioning. German startup Loremo AG will debut its concept car at the Geneva Motor Show this week. "Loremo" is derived from "low resistance mobile," and embodies the company's philosophy of efficient transportation that consumes minimal resources during both production and operation. In practice, this means lightweight, aerodynamic vehicles with phenomenal fuel efficiency.
The Loremo will be offered in two models, the LS and GT. The LS is powered by a 20 hp, 2-cylinder turbodiesel, while the GT gets a 50 hp, 3-cylinder unit. Both are 2 2, mid-engine/RWD configurations with a 5-speed gearbox. The GT will go from 0-62 mph in 9 seconds, but the real strength of the Loremo is fuel efficiency - the GT consumes only 2.7 liters per 100 km, while the LS needs only 1.5 liters/100 km. According to my calculator, the LS will go over 150 miles on a gallon of diesel! . According to Loremo, the LS will be priced at about $13,100, while the GT will sell for less than $18,000. The company calculates the all-in operating costs (depreciation, maintenance, insurance, fuel) of the LS model over six years to be a parsimonious 23 cents per mile. Unfortunately, the Loremo isn't scheduled for production until 2009.
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/5/2006 3:31:33 PM | Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it? Posted: 4/5/2006 12  48 PM douglas: I agree that it's dangerous.. but are you saying that the most oil ever taken out of the ground was in 1971? I don't quite understand... Thanks in advance...
The most oil ever taken out of the ground in the lower 48 states was in 1971.
Alaskan, Mexican, Venezuelan, North Sea, Gulf of Mexico & Middle Eastern oil are not in that total.
After 1971, less oil was extracted from the lower 48 states and more came from overseas. Once we were importing the majority of the oil we were consuming, we were over a barrel and OPEC knew it. At that point, having control of the majority of our supply, OPEC first cut off some of the supply, then jacked up the prices.
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Hezron
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Joined: 12/15/2005
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/7/2006 9:28:12 AM | For anybody interested this is a great site for information on peak oil. I am not saying I am supporting all of the views...but tons of information all in one good site.
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/index.shtml#post
Most "experts" are now saying we probably have peaked. Whether or not this is true seems beside the point to me because one stat is for certain...we are in a situation of rising demand on a limited resource and guess what....with all the profit to be made...big oil is no longer putting anywhere near as much money into exploration...this is definitely not a good sign. | |
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/7/2006 9:11:01 PM | Peaked oil production could also mean that the demand exceeds the amount of oil that can possibly be produced.
Even if we could install thousands of new oil pumps, the demand is outstripping the
production....this is a peak. China & India are now thirsting for oil.
It doesn't matter how much oil is left in the ground, if the supply is unreliable, gov't's
will rely on alternatives and may spell the end of oil demand.
Brazil doesn't need oil - they only sell it. | |
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/7/2006 9:50:11 PM | http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olduvai_theory
Olduvai theory
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
The Olduvai theory was first introduced by Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D. in 1989. He presented it in his paper, "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge", at the Summit 2000 Pardee Keynote Symposia of the Geological Society of America, on November 13, 2000. The name is a reference to the Olduvai Gorge. The Olduvai theory provides a modern argument supporting the Malthusian catastrophe.
The Olduvai theory states that the industrial civilization (using a special definition - see below) will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years.
Contents
1 Olduvai Gorge
2 Details of theory
2.1 Industrial Civilization
2.2 Decline
3 Future civilizations
4 See also
5 Reference
6 External links
Olduvai Gorge
From the paper, about the Olduvai Gorge:
...(1) it is justly famous, (2) I've been there, (3) its long hollow sound is eerie and ominous, and (4) it is a good metaphor for the 'Stone Age way of life'.
Details of theory
This section is based on the paper "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge".
Industrial Civilization
The Industrial Civilization is defined in this paper as the time from when energy production per capita rises above 30% of its peak to when it falls below 30% of its peak. The 30% point is 3.32 boe/c/yr (barrels of oil equivalent per capita per year). The peak is 11.15 boe/c/yr and occurred in 1979.
Decline
The part of the decline from 1979 to 1999 is called the Olduvai slope. The rest is predicted to occur in two stages:
the Olduvai slide (2000–2011) - 'may resemble the "Great Depression" of 1929 to 1939: unemployment, breadlines, and homelessness'
the Olduvai cliff (2012–2030) - 'I know of no precedent in human history.'
In terms of energy, world oil production per capita also peaked in 1979 and his since fallen faster than world energy production per capita. The paper does not discuss how this shortfall is met.
Total world oil production is predicted to peak in 2006.
Future civilizations
The paper contains a quote that Sir Fred Hoyle made in 1964, stating that if the industrial civilization does collapse, with the coal, oil and "high-grade" metallic ores gone, no species from Earth will ever reach the same level of technology as we now enjoy.
Reference
"The Peak Of World Oil Production And The Road To The Olduvai Gorge" by Richard C. Duncan (2000)
Two of the references for the paper are other websites. The one that does not work is as follows:
Duncan, RC (2000a). The Heuristic Oil Forecasting Method: User's Guide & Forecast #4. www.halcyon.com/duncanrc/ (Forecast #4). 30 p
I have always kind of felt as though this theory is heavily Armageddonist, perhaps almost joyfully so, even if we reach a point were the production is slightly less every year then is being consumed it would have years perhaps decades of stable periods as we adjust to new more costly methods of petroleum production.
Not to mention anywhere does this theory speak to nuclear or hydropower. You can make hydrogen for cars right at the site of hydro dam very effectively.
That said I am not sure the current price of oil is reflective of an oil crunch. Since the time of the inception of this theory, massive new reserves have been discovered; also new methods of producing gasoline from bitumen have been discovered. Not to mention new theories coming down the pipe such as producing gasoline from heavy grade oil with energy generated from nuclear power rather then from natural gas. Presently crude is made into gasoline by expending natural gas thus tying the price of the two products together, untying them could significantly extend the life span of the gasoline era.
I think rather that the international price of oil is dangerously gambled higher and higher, so that those who can profit from such things can justify religious based conflicts (such as the Iraq war). By that I mean the house of Saude and the current American oil Oligarchy and friends (my country included obviously)
Anyhow the West is built on the automobile industry; the last great depression was in many ways kicked off by the death of the auto market. Who is to say that they cannot run automobiles off a hundred other fuels? Eventually the price of gas will be so high, small car producers will be able to flank the big 3 (not so big these days), and generate new automobile markets. Everyone knows that the auto’s we get today have a life span built in, a new up start car company needs only to buy a few used assembly lines (lots of factories have been shut down lately by the by), and start cranking out micro
For that matter who is to say the West is even built on the automobile anymore, aren’t kids these days raised to buy computers instead of cars? We just don’t need to drive to work now like we did then, who is to say we cannot shift economic gears this time and avoid the big depression coming.
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maxme
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Joined: 12/3/2005
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/12/2006 3:20:42 AM |
Not to mention anywhere does this theory speak to nuclear or hydropower. You can make hydrogen for cars right at the site of hydro dam very effectively.
There are lots of alternative fuels. But in terms of quantity and efficiency, all of them put together do not even come close to oil. But maybe you are right. We might sidestep it somehow. But the present day energy consumption for oil cannot be matched by any or all alternative sources, or so I have read. Might be interesting, might be more doomsday propoganda. Happily I do like to bike. | |
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/12/2006 2:06:43 PM | Peak oil is a myth. It rleies on two very false assumptions.
1) The first false assumption is tha tlight sweet crude is the only economically viable type of oil. (supply side peak)
2) The second false assumption is that demand cannot keep up with refining capacity. (demand side)
In dealing with point 1 we probalb yhave indeed reached or will reach the maximum amount of light sweet crude that can be produced. However as demand has driven prices up the other less economically viable oil sources ar enow viable. Oil sands, oil shale and heavy crude are now economically feasable at a price our economy has already adjusted too. $3 a gallon gas in painful but not ruinious. In the US alone there ar eover 3 trillion barrels of non light sweet crude primarily in oil bearing rock. Canada has alberata with oil sands so extensive the conservative estimat eis 200 years worth of oil. Venuzala with it's heavy crude has 3 and a half billion barrels for another 200 years. Then when all else fails ther eis synthetic fuels such as produced by the Axis in World War Two. Although these were low octane in 40's with modern technology I am sure performace can be increased.
What we have in reality is a glut of oil jsut not the super cheap arab oil at $11 a barrel.
In dealing with point 2. Refining has indeed fallen behind consumption demand. But this is artifical and can be reversed within 3 years at any time by building more refineries. And eventually will be. If not doemstically then some third world nation without extensive resources of it's own will build refineries and refine to order. I beleive the current tight oil market will see seriosu relief in the next couple of years as more refienries come on line.
There are lots of alternative fuels. But in terms of quantity and efficiency, all of them put together do not even come close to oil. But maybe you are right. We might sidestep it somehow. But the present day energy consumption for oil cannot be matched by any or all alternative sources, or so I have read. Might be interesting, might be more doomsday propoganda. Happily I do like to bike.
Developing an alternative enrgy source is a waste of time until we have fusion power. It is the only energy source that promises to be all three, efficent, clean and cheap. Until then we nee dot devote moen yinto making oil less polluting. Afte rall oil it self is part of the antural enviroment. The damage comes form the imporoer disposal of it's waste products after we get done using it. | |
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/12/2006 4:53:56 PM |
Developing an alternative energy source is a waste of time until we have fusion power. It is the only energy source that promises to be all three, efficient, clean and cheap. Until then, we need to devote money into making oil less polluting. After all, oil itself is part of the natural environment. The damage comes form the improper disposal of it's waste products after we get done using it.
If fusion were feasible, it would be commercialized by now, if not here, then at least in France and Russia. Very bright people have been pursuing harnessing it for the last fifty or sixty years, and have failed.
But fusion is hardly necessary. Brazil makes alcohol out of sugar cane using b-a-g-a-s-s-e to fire their stills. Archer-Daniels-Midland makes alcohol out of corn using natural gas, and you could equally use landfill gas or sewage digester gas. (B-a-g-a-s-s-e is the dry residue of sugar beets or sugar cane after the juice has been extracted)
Fossil fuels cannot be made non-polluting. Fossil fuels represent carbon locked in the Earth; consuming them results in carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere. There is no "cleaning up" of carbon dioxide possible other than not burning them.
Alcohols (for gas engines) and vegetable oils (for Diesel engines) do not add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. The CO2 emitted by the engine is absorbed by the photosynthesis of next years crop. | |
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/12/2006 5:10:56 PM |
If fusion were feasible, it would be commercialized by now, if not here, then at least in France and Russia. Very bright people have been pursuing harnessing it for the last fifty or sixty years, and have failed.
1- Fusion power is useful energy generated by nuclear fusion reactions. In this kind of reaction two light atomic nuclei fuse together to form a heavier nucleus and release energy. The largest current experiment, JET, has resulted in fusion power production somewhat larger than the power put into the plasma, maintained for a few seconds. In June 2005, the construction of the experimental reactor ITER, designed to produce several times more fusion power than the power into the plasma over many minutes, was announced. The production of net electrical power from fusion is planned for the next generation experiment after ITER.
2- The Sun uses Fusion.
Fusion power will be feasable some day. We need to develop the technology
Fossil fuels cannot be made non-polluting.
If we can get emisisons at or below wha tnatural can anturally absorb then they becoem in effect zero polluters. A man at the aptent office once said every thing worth inventign had already been created. This was beofre the car, airplane, cancer drugs, antibiotics etc. Mankind has a antural talent for doign the impoddible. Inthe areas of emissions look at where we are today vs where we were 30 years ago. The biggest polluters are nearly all gone. only a few old coal fire dpwoer plants remian. The EPA has cracjed down on deisels and the US and msot of the west is well on it's way to a green friendly society. The big polluters as emisisosn go now are devleoping countires and the sheer number of cars. Crackign down on China. Mexico, India etc will take intenrational effort. Industry however can provide the answer to car emissions if prodded hard enough. | |
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/12/2006 6:49:13 PM |
Peak oil is a myth. It rleies on two very false assumptions.
Peak oil production is not a myth....it depends on how you interpret what
'peak' means. To many it means that the supply will become unreliable...demand
outstripping supply. | |
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/12/2006 7:44:38 PM |
Peak oil production is not a myth
ye sit is it seeks to apply the law of dimishing returns to a product in which technology has provided another 400+ years of supply. | |
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/12/2006 7:49:05 PM | The supply is there but the demand is incredible....it's over-stressed the production
capacity. They are throwing everything into it but India, U.S., China are demanding
more more more!!!!!!!!!!! They can't keep up!! This will have dire consequences and
this is why America is desperately throwing everything into alternative energy
sources. Oil is no longer deemed reliable....or it will no longer be deemed as such. China
has secured huge supplies of oil from Russia and Canada....America is being pushed
out of the way as China promises huge conscessions to Canada in exchange for
supplies.
This is what I mean by PEAKED......I think soon the middle-east and whatever the
hell they want to do post-oil - is in serious trouble. They will be forsaken. | |
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/12/2006 10:54:52 PM |
raverdad:
In the areas of emissions look at where we are today vs where we were 30 years ago.
Yes, look. Fugitive emissions - sulfur oxides, nitrous oxides, carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons and fine particulate matter have all been greatly reduced. But carbon dioxide emissions are the same now as they were then. When you burn a ton of carbon, you discharge three and a half tons of carbon dioxide into the air. True today, true in 1976, true tomorrow. What plan do you have for absorbing trillions of tons of CO2?
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Yes, the sun does sustain hydrogen fusion. All we have to do is build a reactor vessel which will hold in 300 billion atmospheres' pressure at 25 million degrees Fahrenheit and it'll be feasible here on Earth, too.
For comparison's sake, the seawater pressure at the bottom of the Marianas trench, at about 6 miles down, the deepest point in the ocean, is about 1000 atmospheres and it's a significant challenge to design equipment for that pressure.
At room temperature, tool steels become plastic and flow like putty at about 10,000 atmospheres pressure. At 25 hundred degrees, steels become plastic with no pressure at all. That's a far cry from 300 billion atmospheres and 25 million degrees. | |
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/12/2006 11:21:03 PM | ...and yet we have created a fusion reaction on earth, we call it the H bomb, sort of tricky to harness at this point... maybe we can start to boil entire lakes off and have the juice fuel the biggest turbines ever made!!! hahahaha
Present attempts to have sustained fusion reactions on earth involve stable isotopes of Beryllium, Lithium, helium, and hydrogen. The dream of so called "cold fusion”, the idea that light elemental matter in an unstable neutron state may be easier to fuse then other elements.
Refining has indeed fallen behind consumption demand. But this is artifical and can be reversed within 3 years at any time by building more refineries.
Isn’t this the multi billion dollar statement, every where big oil companies are shutting down oil refineries; why would first world governments reverse such a trend, they derive much wealth from taxation of the petroleum feeding frenzy that is going on. I would be interested to know were your getting 3 years from though.
The cheapest way to ship energy most efficiently has remained uranium by rail for a very long time now. I say safe efficient long lasting nuclear reactors are the key.
Use that energy to in turn make some kind of safe transportable non-polluting fuel. | |
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/12/2006 11:33:51 PM | Heres what I would do about the emissions. Ohh BTW human output is 22 billion tons of CO2 a year. it will take only 25,000 acres to clean up all of human kinds emissions. Now that might seem like a big number but it is only 39.0625 sq. miles world wide. Double it and you not only reach zero emissions but go into a massive 22 billion ton per year negative (not sure if that would be any safer for the enviroment than the extra 22 billion tons)
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1590/is_13_59/ai_100879581
As for Fusion we can already do it. Or did you not bother to read what I posted. It is simply not economically viable YET.
Nuclear Fusion
Key Concepts
Nuclear fusion occurs when two small nuclei join together to form a larger nucleus. A large amount of energy is released during fusion.
Nuclear fusion occurs within the sun and the stars.
Fusion in the sun is believed to occur in steps. Four protons produce one Helium atom atom, two positrons, and two neutrinos. The first two steps shown below must occur twice before the third step takes place:
Fusion equation
H+H > H+ev
Fusion equation
H+H > He
Fusion equation
He+He > He+ 2H
Fusion in stars produces all of the chemical elements found on Earth.
Sunlight is energy released from fusion reactions in the sun.
Examining the spectral characteristics of stars may provide a better understanding of fusion.
Fusion is believed to be possible only under extremely high temperatures. For this reason it is referred to as a thermonuclear reaction.
The use of nuclear fusion for commercial purposes is currently being investigated.
One reaction that may eventually be able to produce controlled fusion is:
Fusion equation
Fusion has the potential of providing an abundant supply of energy. The fuel needed for fusion is readily available.
Deuterium deuterium must be extracted from water. (About 0.015% of the hydrogen in water is exists as deuterium.) Tritium (Tritium) must be made, since it does not occur naturally in sufficient quantities.
Tritium is radioactive (a beta emitter), with a half-life of 12.3 years. It is also toxic.
Complete fusion reactions produce no long-life products. Induced radioactivity is produced in the reactor container due to neutron flux. Also, tritium is radioactive and quite toxic.
--------------------------here is the important part-------------------------------------------------
Sustaining a fusion reaction may be possible by containing the reactants in a high temperature form of matter called plasma. Plasma particles can be contained within a magnetic field. This principle is referred to as magnetic confinement. The purpose of magnetic confinement is to avoid heat loss, not to prevent the walls of the confinement vessel from vaporizing, as often believed.
Another possible technique for sustaining a fusion reaction is inertial confinement, in which a fuel pellet containing the fusion reactants is bombarded by a high energy source such as a laser or an electron beam. | |
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/13/2006 1:49:31 AM |
raverdad:
"Ohh BTW human output is 22 billion tons of CO2 a year. it will take only 25,000 acres to clean up all of human kinds emissions.
Dude, do the math and ask yourself if the answers are reasonable before you embarrass yourself again. I don't know where your numbers came from, but it only takes three minutes to prove that they're wrong:
22 billion tons of CO2 per year
25,000 acres
That's about 1 million tons of CO2 being sequestered per acre
which is about 240,000 tons of carbon per acre per year
which is about 6 tons of carbon sequestered per square foot per year.
You're telling me that natural processes can sequester away 32 pounds of carbon per square foot per day?
Bull-loney. That'd be a stack of plant matter 3 more feet high, every day. Even kudzu doesn't grow THAT fast. Go get a clue. | |
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 4/13/2006 12:50:09 PM | douglasinmotown,
oops forgot a zero it's actually 250,acres or 382 sq miles world wide of the emissions trees. BTW had you bothere dot read my article instea dof popping off. You would relaise these trees are not naturla they are a emissiosn gas collecting devive tha tis manufactured. each acre of these scrubbers can consume 90,000 tons of C02 a year.
To steal your line go get a clue | |
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 5/17/2006 7:36:12 PM | Anyone who believes that peak oil isn't a problem is uninformed or living in denial. The problem goes far beyond the cost of driving. A new vehicle requires ten times its weight in oil to manufacture. There is 7 gallons of oil in every tire. It requires 10 calories of oil to get 1 calorie of food into your mouth, as all industrial fertilizers and pesticides are oil based, and transportation runs on oil. As you can see, electric cars are not going to solve this problem.(stats from "crossing the rubicon" by Mike Ruppert)
The U.S. has 5% of the world population but consumes 25% of the worlds energy resources. It is no mystery who will be hurt the worst by peak oil. The invasion of Iraq should make more sense in this context, and purely from a machiavellian perspective this invasion was necessary.
It is estimated that it would take 30 years to change over from one form of energy supply to another. Even if there was an alternative, which there is not, peak oil is here now.
Almost 60 of the approx. 65 oil producing countries have already peaked. Most believed Saudi Arabia peaked this year. Iran is going to begin selling oil in the Euro, which will have a devestating effect on the US$.
I am Canadian. To harvest oil from the Alberta tar sands (that we are selling to China anyway) you must spray boiling water into the sand creating an environmentally toxic slurry. The oil supply there wasn't recently discovered, it just wasn't worth collecting until now.
New deposits will be discovered in the future, but will be small and scarce. In the last three years not one deposit over 500 mil. barrels has been discovered, and the oil companies have found that every $1 in oil costs $2 to find. This is why they have record profits, because the have given up looking for the most part. Do a google image seach for "peak oil" and you will find countless charts supporting this.
Go to www.youtube.com and search for "peak oil" to watch some incredibly well-made documetaries on the issue. I consider "Crossing the Rubicon" the bible of peak oil. Give it a read if you dare. Or just turn on Fox news and pretend it isn't happening.  | |
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| Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 5/17/2006 9:26:24 PM | | Peak oil Production would be a problem.... but people keep predicting it's going to happen and it never has. One of the most recent predictions was during the arab oil embargo of the 70s... but the known oil reserves have increased by 60% since then... With all the teckies and big money in oil these days, I dare say the same thing may happen again... or not. If not, we're all screwed up.... but nobody knows that: yet. | |
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