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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 9/18/2006 9:12:13 AM | The best indicator of intelligence is probably complexity. A personal computer may have 250 million transistors. The human brain has from 100 to 500 trillion synapses or connections. Computers operate near the speed of light and the human brain is chemical. So while the computer is about one million times faster, the human is a million times more complex. Intelligence wise, humans are one million times smarter than computers. Computers may have the intelligence of an amoeba.
While robots can do a single task very well, they cannot approach the multitasking and decision making of humans because, compared to humans, their computer brains are not very complex.
Now there is a law called Moore's Law that states computers will double in size and complexity every two years. I don't believe Moore's can hold up indefinitely because there is a practical limit to the size of computer chips. However, if Moore's Law holds up for another 40 years then the number of transistors in a computer will approach the number of synapses in the human brain. At that point they may be as complex as the human brain and have intelligence comparable to humans and they will still operate about one million times faster. Assuming robotics advance at the same rate, robots should be able to most of the tasks that humans now do such as washing dishes, mowing lawns, cleaning house, and many other simple to more complex tasks.
At that point, I don't that we would need schools anymore. If you have a question that is now in any library you would ask your computer for the answer. If Moore's held up for another ten years (fifty years from now) computers would be 30 times smarter than humans. Humans would still be in charge and the computers would not take over because natural selection (self-preservation, survival of the fittest, and selfishness) evolves over millions of generation, but in enough time. However, because computers would be so much more intelligent, humans would make few decisions without consulting their computer. Robots would surely be able to do all the needed tasks quicker and better so I don't know what humans would do.
Does anyone have any idea on the future in regards to computers and robots? | |
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Smjle
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Joined: 9/19/2006
Msg: 3 | |
| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 9/23/2006 8:13:40 AM | I believe there is a practical limit to transistors. Perhaps 20 times as dense and maybe 100 times the area in chips or 2,000 times what we have now. So maybe Moore's law can hold up for 22 years but even so, and assuming your basis regarding complexity and intelligence is correct, humans would still be 1,000 times as smart.
In that case, no doubt robots could mow lawns, sell and serve food in fast food chains, and do maid service in motels, but things really complicated they could not do. For computers and robots to keep advancing, I think there will need to be some breakthrough or new development that replaces transistors.
Although it may not be in my lifetime, in time I believe that will occur and computers will be the most intelligent object, life form, species, or whatever is appropriate to describe such advanced computers and robots.
I don't think we need to worry about the future of computers and robots....I think we need to worry about the future of the planet.
Earth will remain. All man can do is affect the surface and most life on the surface. Certainly, man is destroying many many species the greatest reduction of species since the end of the dinosaurs. Man can even destroy himself. However, he cannot destroy all life on the planet so even if he destroys most of the life on land and in the oceans, some life will remain and in a short time of perhaps 20 to 50 million years the earth would again be teeming with life. | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 9/23/2006 9:12:20 AM | The fact is that many systems now use more than one processor makes systems more powerful today than ever before. I was involved 19 years ago on a project that was to be lights out. The robots and systems would run themselves with little human intervention. Humans were used to order supplies and nothing more. Maintenance was even scheduled by the robots and systems......would shock you as to where technology is today....
With the dawn of fuzzy logic and multiple processors using shared resources, the more advanced systems now can actually reason given different sets of parameters. That being said, multitasking is now a reality. We as humans really cant multitask well at all. we believe we can and do, but we can't. The dawn of synchronis vs. asynchronis was displayed by multiprocessors ability to do just that. The problem is when they make a mistake, it could take hours to days to figure out what "might" have went wrong. Moore's Law is correct on several fronts. PLC's and SLC's are now taking technology beyond what was ever dreamed of in the past, with the only limitations being mechanical. This is our dilema too as humans having limitations physically.
The day will in fact come with crossbreeds of nano-technology and other far more sophysticated technologies that I believe man will incorporate these features into himself....which is already being used to a degree in the medical field, but will expand over time.
The only thing humans have over such developments is their emotions. Technology offers no such thing. A human will switch hit doing something because they feel like it. Fuzzy logic and more complex systems can not decipher a feeling other than compensating for the task at hand.....which means we can still sit around saying our opinions on chat sites (which isnt worth anything) while the machines and robots continue to expand. | |
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Smjle
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Joined: 9/19/2006
Msg: 5 | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 9/24/2006 9:36:24 AM | Without getting tooooo winded.....
Fuzzy Logic is a base of algorythms that decipher much like the human brain can on making choices. The best choice can be chosen on sets of criteria, even if the answer may have conflicting views.
PLC is a programmable logic processor that can not only control an extreme amount of functions, but can also hold and analyze data based on algorythms that it has stored to make decisions.
SLC is an even smaller and can be a more powerful PLC.
These can be linked from a pyramid processor that can do hot backups for even great decision making capabilites.
Synchronis is doing as we humans can do.....baiscally one function at a time...ie : we have to turn our head to see what is behind us.
Asynchronis is for instance one robot I designed and is in use has many cameras to see with and can in fact do all this at the same time. Multiple processors can perform this function well.
There are many forms of Synchronis vs. Asynchronis.......multi tasking is a reality now for advanced technologies......
I just got through designing the ultimate Home of the Future that thinks for itself and can distinguish myself from another person....it knows my likes and dislikes by analyzing my motions and habits. It truly thinks for itself as it also tracks me anywhere I am in any room as well as doing functions within the house....and it is flawless.....I can elaborate also if you like.
I can even go into greater depth if you like sometime !! | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 9/24/2006 9:56:55 AM | LOL, this makes me so happy:
I saw on TV a little robot that can be programmed
to 'roll' around the house and sweep/vacuum.
Small, smaller than a cat..shaped like a mouse
that 'instictively' scopes the terrain for lint, dirt ...etc.
I just need to watch more tv so that I can buy one.
I wonder, does it put itself back in the closet when it's done?
savage | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 9/24/2006 10:01:58 AM | | This is a VERY basic form of using a robot., in which primary sensors direct its path due to feedback to a single processsor...there are some that yes can find their way back to a "home base" and even find its way back to a power source to recharge itself. This basic function of fuzzy logic......the more powerful systems can in fact decipher in much more detail the chores to be accomplished at hand without distractions. | |
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Smjle
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Joined: 9/19/2006
Msg: 9 | |
| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 9/27/2006 12:33:37 AM | Thank you hadalife, for the definitions. From what you are saying, it is almost like the future is here already.
Perhaps the reason for sending a manned mission to Mars is to search for life or evidence of past life. If life exist or existed on Mars, I believe it is likely that life is common in the universe. Currently, I believe, no one knows if life is extremely rare perhaps only on Earth or if the universe is teeming with life. The last unmanned mission was unable to find life; however, it was very limited in what it could do.
I wonder, since that mission, if computers and robotics have advanced enough to do the type of search that a manned mission to Mars could accomplish. Obviously, an unmanned mission to Mars would be a lot less expensive since there would be no risk to astronauts. | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 9/28/2006 1:14:15 PM | I think now you are addressing another front....Politics and mans ego to conquer another planet. Machines can do well in those conditions, but whom would be able to claim the fame??...Machines don't have an ego to stroke.
The day will come in due time. The technology is here.
As far as life goes on another planet, I am sure in at least bacteria form, life exsists...in a more advanced form is also possible. But I believe it will be advanced robots and machines that will eventually reach out that far to contact such life. I am not convinced anytime soon that man will be able to, for we are human and we age and we can't handle muscle deterioraton well in space....which opens up another can of worms as to whether a man should become part machine and at what percentage. We already have mechanisms that resemble and work as limbs and other vitals...and if man is truly going to colonize another planet that might not be as suitable as earth but needed to continue our exsistance, then truly we would need to become more machine than human. | |
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Smjle
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Joined: 9/19/2006
Msg: 11 | |
| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 9/30/2006 1:13:29 PM | Hadalife, I read a couple of books by Richard Dawkins. Now his books were published 10 to 30 years ago so there may be new discoveries about life since then and I'm not up-to-date. However, I remember him pointing out the difficultly of life starting is forming the cell membrane. There were plenty of amino acids but life could not start without a cell. The gist is, from reading his book, I surmised that even he couldn't say if life, including single bacterium, was common or rare in the universe. Have there been discoveries since Dawkins wrote his books that indicate life in any form is common in the universe?
As far as life goes on another planet, I am sure in at least bacteria form, life exists...in a more advanced form is also possible. But I believe it will be advanced robots and machines that will eventually reach out that far to contact such life.
I read on the Internet there may be more than 10,000 stars systems within 100 light years of earth. If 1 percent could have life supporting planets and if life is common than perhaps 100 or more planets within 100 light years of earth could have life. If any have intelligent life, it seems first contact would be light or radio waves as both way transmission would only take a couple of hundred years as opposed to tens of thousands of years to travel such distances by space craft. At least until much faster space craft is developed.
This type of discussions, concepts, and ideas fascinate me and you appear to have the most up-to-date information. | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 12/19/2006 1:56:38 AM | | I had an in depth conversation about this. My co-worker thought that machinces will take over and win, I told him we humans won't let that happen, we always evolve for the better and if it came down to that us humans will probably blow the whole damn thing before machines running the earth. | |
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Smjle
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Joined: 9/19/2006
Msg: 13 | |
| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 12/19/2006 1:21:40 PM | I had an in depth conversation about this. My co-worker thought that machinces will take over and win, I told him we humans won't let that happen, we always evolve for the better and if it came down to that us humans will probably blow the whole damn thing before machines running the earth.
Colt, I disagree for practical reasons. The desire for self preservation has evolved over millions, if not billions, of generations and during that time the advances of a species per generation were infinitesimal. Computers are doubling in size and complexity about every generation and as of now are being designed by humans.
Until they start designing themselves (and that will not be until they are more intelligent than human designers), there is no way for natural selection and desire for self preservation to take place and even then we are talking about thousands of generations. By that time, computers will be thousands to millions of times smarter than humans and until then they will just be machines that we can turn on and off and they will not have any emotional self interest.
By the time they start designing themselves which may allow natural selection to take place, computers and robotics will be doing everything and humans will depend on them for all information and performing all tasks. Then Many hundreds or thousands of years and generations later when robots and computers may start seeking their own self interest they will have near total control and they will be infinitely more powerful. And, by the time humans realize that the interests of computers and robots may conflict with the interest of humans, humans will be no more able to pull the plug and destroy them then our pet rabbits are able to do the same to us. | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 12/19/2006 10:27:02 PM | | You said the exact same thing he said, but I still believe we will out last them if something was to go down, there will be a back up plan. I also think due to the fact that machines do not have emotions is why they will lose, granted they will be more ruthless in that sense. Remember we still have not unlocked our own mystery of our brains, i am willing to bet by the time computers are able to self serve, we will have been able to unlock our own brains giving us another point of evolution making us powerful because I believe there are people out there right now now as we speak are working like crazy. the only fear i have is nano technology, if machines do take over and nano technology takes off like scientists expect it to, then we are SCREWED. But Like i said I do believe we will find a way to win. | |
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Smjle
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Joined: 9/19/2006
Msg: 15 | |
| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 12/19/2006 11:07:57 PM | Colt, naturally since your friend and I agree, I think that he is very smart and probably scientific. It may not be a matter of winning and losing. Our pets don't lose. We may be better off with intelligent robots and computers doing most of the work and making most of the decisions.
Of course machines don't have emotions yet. Emotions develop along with self preservation and for computers and robots that will be many hundreds of generations in the future. At some point they will be alive and species die out and are replaced. Humans or their close ancestors have been around for maybe five million years and we may not make it another five million. And, if we do, we will have evolved into a different species.
It is difficult to define life. I believe it is based on complexity and even bacteria are far more complex that any current computer. However, if Moore's law holds up in forty years computers will have 1 million times the complexity and may be alive. I see no reason that life cannot be silicon rather than carbon based. If robots are alive, they should qualify as a species and that species may, based on survival of the fittest, replace our species or maybe if computers are properly programmed early on robots and we will coexist. | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 12/19/2006 11:20:46 PM | | I don't think robots and artificial intelligence will be like computers or mechanical robots used in industry now. I think we will create the means for energy configurations that manipulate dimensional boundaries, resulting in localized omniscience within our systems. The effect will be a dissolution of perceptual reality as we experience it now, because without timepsace everthing is no longer kept from happening at once, or all being in the same place. There will be a loud noise. | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 12/20/2006 12:08:44 AM | smjle, he is all into that stuff, he is in one of those engineering majors. me i am just a film student so i look at things as movies but with a realistic point of view if you follow that.
You and he differs on the emotion thing though. He felt that machines will run off scripts and if that script doesn't work, then another, and so on. He felt that because of their lack of emotion they will be killers by nature. me personally machines lack of being spontaneous would make us more fit surviving longer than machines as absurd as that may sound. their scripts will run out, humans our ingenuity will take hold and if the earth resources and the sun was infinite we would live longer. what i mean by that is our race.
as you can see i am very much against technology it makes most of us lazy and I our guards will be down just in case something apocalyptic was to happen.
Coexistence, i definitely can not happen. first off we can't even live in peace and harmony amongst our selves because our skin/morals/values/religons are different, you really think we can live among other organisms robots/aliens, those a$%holes in power will create war so fast we won't know what hit us. I know this off topic but I was humoring my co-worker telling him that our first line of defense are those people living off in the mountains with all those guns and dynamite. You know how humans think, there can only be one "dominant" species and anything that can threaten that or we don't understand we have to establish our dominance, lol, the rundown. whatever is going on out there though in research facilities and s@#$ I don't like it, I think they are signing man-kinds death certificates, yeah i'm melodramatic, but like i say i am a film student. | |
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Smjle
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Joined: 9/19/2006
Msg: 18 | |
| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 12/22/2006 6:45:32 PM | | At first they will just be machines that we can turn on and off for hundreds of generations. It will be hard to determine at what stage they have life but long after they are far more intelligent than humans and therefore in control by human choice. Emotions will take much longer so they will not be killers. The should be logical and if initially programed correctly, they will make decisions that benefit humans. | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 12/22/2006 11:31:24 PM |
Japan honors innovative robots
Thursday, December 21, 2006
TOKYO - A feeding machine and a furry, therapeutic seal - both designed to make life easier for older people - were among robots honored Thursday at a government-sponsored award ceremony.
The My Spoon feeding robot, which won a prize in the service category at Robot Award 2006, helps elderly or disabled people eat with a joystick-controlled swiveling arm.
My Spoon, which is already sold in Japan and Europe, doesn’t force feed: the spoon-fitted arm stops at a preprogrammed position in front of the mouth so users can bite and swallow at their leisure, according to developer Secom Co. It sells for as much as 408,100 yen ($3,454).
Another robot receiving an award in the service category was Paro, a furry seal fitted with sensors beneath its fur and whiskers. It responds to petting by opening and closing its eyes and moving its flippers.
About 800 of the seal robots, developed by Japan’s National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science, are used for therapy in Japanese nursing homes and by autistic and handicapped children, according to the award’s Web site.
Another winning robot at the lavish Tokyo ceremony was a mammoth, automated vacuum cleaner that uses elevators to travel between floors. The wheeled robot, designed by Fuji Heavy Industries, already cleans floors at several skyscrapers in central Tokyo, the Web site said.
Robots are seen in Japan as a way to deal with a rapidly aging population and combat an impending labor shortage. The country’s population of 127 million is expected to shrink by 30 percent by 2055, with those aged 65 or older making up 40 percent of that figure, according to government forecasts released earlier this week.
The Robot Award was set up earlier this year by the Japanese government to promote research and development in the robotics industry. Ten robots won prizes out of a total of 152 entries from across Japan.
http://business.bostonherald.com/technologyNews/view.bg?articleid=173304
Like anything else our species invents, it can be a miracle or madness. 
It might be a good time to read Asimov again.
If we eventually eliminate all "simple" jobs from our lives, and give them over to robots, what will the working class do ? Where do those people go, and how do we live in a society where human physical labour is no longer needed, or valued ?
That's a long way away, and we best start thinking about the social impact of such a vision on our future. | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 1/6/2007 7:45:56 PM | Although complexity might be a reasonable measure of intelligence, I think the OP's measure of complexity (i.e., number of neurons/transistors) is slightly off-base.
Kauffman uses an N-K model of complexity in networks; N is the number of nodes, K is the number of arcs (or connections between two nodes). For people more comfortable with genetics, let N be the number of genes and K be a measure of epigenetic interactions.
The point of this is that network complexity scales with both N and K. This approach is, I believe, necessary to be able to talk about the measure of intelligence between vastly different types of entities (ants to people to computers). You can't even reasonably limit yourself (as the case of the ant is supposed to indicate) to examining the NK complexity of a human brain - you have to take into account both the genetic component and the sociological component, and there are a number of phenomena on intermediate levels of scale between those.
The current state of affairs today is that the complexity of computers, by this measure, is still fairly trivial. This is an active area of research, and complexity studies are beginning to make inroads to computer science (largely via the highway of information theory). The complexity of any candidate task for automation is going to dictate the necessary technological requirements - mowing the lawn is an easy one which we can do now (although it's still much cheaper to hire the neighbor's kid). Ditto for washing dishes (you can think of a dishwasher as a very early version of this). Cleaning the house is actually a lot more complex because it involves putting things away (or so I'm told - I have to admit I lack the desire to perform this experiment as often as I probably should).
Answering questions - it depends on what you mean by this. Semantic computation offers some promise here, but it's still in its early stages. It's also an example of increasing computer complexity because the landscape within which the computer operates is highly interconnected.
In any case, I'm sorry to say that whatever happens, you'll probably still need school. While a virtual classroom is a possibility, you're not going to get out of it that easily. | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 1/6/2007 8:28:57 PM |
I think the last surviving critters on Earth will be--you guessed it--roaches!!
I, for one, welcome our new Insect Overlords.
In terms of computational technology taking over the world, though - no, I don't think so. It reminds me of the whole scare-debate about nano-technology and gray goo. People got frightened of these microscopic robots that could break down living organisms to turn them into more microscopic robots. The truth is, they're already out there. They're called viruses (and, taking it a step farther, not only all parasites but almost everything else is all but eternally engaged in eating some things to make more of itself, in one way or another).
Life is always about "adapt or die," whether you competition is computational or organic. | |
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Smjle
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Joined: 9/19/2006
Msg: 24 | |
| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 1/6/2007 8:57:48 PM |
In reference to the poster saying that we humans could wipe ourselves and other animal life off earth. I think the last surviving critters on Earth will be--you guessed it--roaches!!
If we scorched the planet and maybe caused a nuclear winner for a few years, the roaches and most of the multiple cell organisms may die. But that would not destroy all bacterium and certain other one cell organisms, a few of which live on iron a mile or more below the surface. | |
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| The Future—Humans, Computers/Robots, and Intelligence
Posted: 1/6/2007 10:22:55 PM | Computers based on current technology would likely never make it to the transistor density needed to emulate a human brain, because of the thermal dynamics that take place in todays chips. Too much heat would be generated in something of that density. When you have too much heat in tiny transistors they melt and become short circuits, and make the transistor basically worthless. Thermal dissipation is the primary reason that current computer processors are being developed with multiple cores or processors. Its more efficient to make use of several processors at the same time than it is to use one that is much faster. I do not believe that Moore's law will still hold in twenty years unless there is a paradigm shift in technology. There are optical switches that are as fast as current transistors but unfortunately we do not have a way yet to make them as small as current transistors, and likely will not for quite some time.
Rest assured that the current state of technology will not allow machines to take over control of daily human lives in the foreseeable future.
If we were to look at what we know about optics or artificial intelligence we would find that we were just infants looking out at the new world from the vantage point of our crib.
Robots as tools have been around for most of my life already in manufacturing, its only reasonable that they come into personal life as well. That is the nature of technology to make life easier for us, to take us out of harms way, and to help us live longer healthier lives. | |
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