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Unchecked global warming will devastate the world economy on the scale of the world wars and the Great Depression, a major British report said Monday.

Sir Nicholas Stern, the report's author and a senior government economist, said unchecked global warming could shrink the global economy by 20 per cent -- and cost a whopping $7 trillion in lost output.

However, taking action now would cost just one per cent of global gross domestic product, Sterns says in his 700-page study.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who introduced the report today, called for "bold and decisive action" to cut carbon emissions and stem the worst of temperature rise.

He said the Stern Review showed scientific evidence that global warming was "overwhelming" and its consequences "disastrous."

British Treasury chief Gordon Brown, who commissioned the report, said the U.K. would lead international efforts to tackle climate change and establish "an economy that is both pro-growth and pro-green."

Stern's report is seen as the first major effort to quantify the economic cost of climate change -- and the first major contribution to the global warming debate by an economist, rather than a scientist.

"Our actions over the coming decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century," he writes.

Consequences

If no action is taken, says Stern, up to 200 million people could become refugees as their homes are hit by drought or flood from rising sea levels.

Further, up to 40 per cent of wildlife species could become extinct, and melting glaciers could cause water shortages for one sixth of the world's population, the report says.

"It is not in doubt that, if the science is right, the consequences for our planet are literally disastrous,'' said Blair.

"This disaster is not set to happen in some science fiction future many years ahead, but in our lifetime.

"Unless we act now ... these consequences, disastrous as they are, will be irreversible.''

Stern's solution

Despite the gloomy forecast, Stern said he is "optimistic" that if the world powers act "strongly and urgently," the effects can be minimized.

"Whilst there is much more we need to understand -- both in science and economics -- we know enough now to be clear about the magnitude of the risks, the timescale for action and how to act effectively," he said.

Stern said the world must shift to a "low-carbon global economy'' through measures including taxation, regulation of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon trading.

Brown said former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, who has emerged as a powerful environmental activist and spokesperson, would advise the government on climate change.

Brown called for Europe to cut its carbon emissions by 30 per cent by 2020; and 60 per cent by 2050.

He also said the British government is considering new "green taxes" on cheap airline flights, fuel and high-emission vehicles.

The "green" initiatives, he said, provide an opportunity "for new markets, for new jobs, new technologies, new exports where companies, universities and social enterprises in Britain can lead the world".

Stern's report is expected to increase pressure on the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush to step up its efforts to fight global warming. The Bush administration never approved the Kyoto climate-change accord.

Stern is a former chief economist of the World Bank.

I seem to remember a scientific convention where Iassac Asimov, and Arthur C Clarke discussing whether the limited and finite resources of planet earth were enough to either a) produce enough polution to make all human life extinct, or b) not quite enough by some Cosmic plan, and they would run out just before that happened. or c) the Earth would rebel at some point, and plunge us back into simple, savage living by some massive adjustment..such as a pole shift..ie the tilt of the wobble earth has moving the poles to the equator as appears to have happened many times before.

In the early '70's Time had covers on their magazine about how the earth was cooling at such a rate that we were headed to another ice age. YES, the earth is warming, and then it will cool again.... its a natural cycle that has happened as long as it has been around.....

you will see that it is the same NUT CASES that predicted $5000.00/ounce gold, global death and anarchy by the year 2000......

And why is it that EVERYBODY is exempt from things like the Kyoto agreement EXCEPT the US........

Heres a conspiracy theory for you...... one that actually is TRUE..... All of the old gaurd socialists who tried to take down the USA during the cold war are now on the "GREEN" band wagon.... OOOPPSS, thats not theory, thats FACT...................... I wonder why????

why is it that EVERYBODY is exempt from things like the Kyoto agreement EXCEPT the US.........

Could it have something to do with the fact that if we were to shackle ourselves to that agreement, it would be a death blow to our economy?

As far as where the old gaurd socialists have gone......

The Earth Charter's inclusive ethical vision recognizes that environmental protection, human rights, equitable human development, and peace are interdependent and indivisible. It provides a new framework for thinking about and addressing these issues.

Green Cross International:
Promotes legal, ethical and behavioral norms that ensure basic changes in the values, actions and attitudes of government, the private sector and civil society, necessary to build a sustainable global community
Prevents and resolves conflicts arising from environmental degradation.
Provides assistance to people affected by the environmental consequences of wars and conflicts.

I ignored your orignal suggestion to google nancy luft, as I know who she is....

Are you saying that you are using her as an information source?

Believe me, all of the conspiracy theories on this forum bring you and most of the hate USA crowd a LOT closer to the reknowned Nancy Luft than to me.....

Stern said the world must shift to a "low-carbon global economy'' through measures including taxation, regulation of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon trading.

If you want something to worry about, worry about the evil in the world that is trying to eliminate some of us, and control the rest.