| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 3/3/2008 11:23:50 AM | | Many individuals here have no doubt been beat up in the USA stock market over the past few months. I am sure from reading political and current events forums, there are some very knowledgeable individuals here in the area of money management. I would like to see a NON NAME CALLING, CIVIL discussion of options for safe money havens and/or reasons to hold, while this continues to work toward a bottom. I fear this is going to be quite a while, given the damage occurring in all areas. I just do not see ANY good news on the USA economic horizon. I could not find this topic already in progress in a search, point me to it, if such a thread does exist. | |
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Jemue
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Joined: 1/26/2005
Msg: 2 | |
| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 3/3/2008 11:28:26 AM | The people moving to the Euro seem missing the point that it itself is a currency that looks strong in part because the US dollar is weak, though there are less of the circumstances that are effecting the US dollar from what I can see. Same reasons as to why the CDN dollar has risen above the US, national debt (or lack there of) and natural resource being two factors.
I think the price of Gold and Silver and the main indicators of where the investors money is going, or watch what Singapore does and they are doing well at the moment. | |
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| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 3/3/2008 11:42:20 AM | | Right you are- Singapore market gained 26.5% last year vs. 6.5% in the USA. That ranked Singapore #39 & USA #65. Romania was way ahead of us, at 27.7% fer crying out loud! It appears the Vampires have turned the blood sucking franchise over to OPEC, and they are concentrating on money management! | |
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| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 3/3/2008 11:45:04 AM | | What's happening with gold is part of an indication of what's happening with commodities in general. If printing more money continues to be the solution to every problem then inflation is guaranteed and commodities will continue to rise. | |
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Jemue
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Joined: 1/26/2005
Msg: 6 | |
| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 3/3/2008 12:04:23 PM |
A good point! How, I ask, how, can we have an economic stimulus package based on printing money we don't have? The mind boggles..........
I never understood that one, seeing a lot of consumer items (electronics being the obvious one) are foreign sourced and manufactured so the money goes straight out of the country.
The effect of ditching the gold standard and looking to credit and short term I suppose. | |
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| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 3/3/2008 12:05:14 PM | And what will we do if/when China (which owns much of our economy) hiccups?
If they even want a quarter of their investments back, we're going down.
I remember when Japan crashed, and Russia too. Hard times.
G | |
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Jemue
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Joined: 1/26/2005
Msg: 8 | |
| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 3/3/2008 12:16:35 PM |
If they even want a quarter of their investments back, we're going down.
I think that's true and most of the money people I talk to agree. Though ...... China isn't going to do it in a punitive way against the US for the sake of it, only if it's in China's interest from a business side. Hence why the US was fighting to get China to re-value to shrink the proportional size of it's debt to the,
At the moment I think it's in China's interests to have the US still going, it's own consumers and India's consumer base (though 13-14 times bigger than the US's) isn't ready to take over driving the consumer engine .... yet. | |
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| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 3/3/2008 12:54:32 PM |
And what will we do if/when China (which owns much of our economy) hiccups?
At the moment I'm pretty sure they're more concerned about our hiccups than we are about theirs. Nobody is in a position to make any quick moves. We're all too connected. | |
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| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 3/3/2008 1:50:49 PM | | Seems we are perhaps on the same page of moving $$ out of diversified funds and into solid assets, ie: metals, oil, etc., or maybe solid growing currencies. There are currency exchange traded funds that Buffet has been fond of in the past year; I haven't seen him make many bad calls over time. | |
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| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 3/4/2008 5:42:58 AM | Are you looking for a long-term safe haven? It doesn't exactly exist...are you willing to accept a rate of return that barely beats inflation? You could budget yourself to live off these (relative) low returns...or you could invest in vehicles that require watching.
For example, invest not in risky places such as China or Russia, but invest instead in companies investing in these countries. Say, a Western company selling cement to China. Or an oil company with fields around the world, breaking into Gazprom. Or maybe a European telecom company investing in Iraq, India, and other growing economies
Or if you want to ride the gold rush, either buy at $900 hoping to go up to $1200 (not unlikely), or invest in gold mining companies that are solid, not fly by nights trying to catch a rising craze. any time a commodity rises in price, companies either divest, or they invest in new, now-less-costly ways to get what was before not worth going after...and they can make profits. but, like anything else, ya better know the field so you know what you're looking at...or put your $ into a fund that does, and piggyback on their experience. | |
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| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 3/4/2008 8:07:31 AM | All good advice- just speaking for myself, I have funds with international exposure, but not a big enough % to offset the fall of the US market. Going along with your ideas, I am looking at funds with greater interest in the hot economies outside the US, and exchange traded currency funds.
Just 2 days ago, I had a very interesting conversation with a savy businessman that does a lot of deals in China. He does not do all this from his desk, he actually goes to all the various areas in the country. He had the following to say: " Realize that the growth in China is benefiting a small portion of the population, It is not developing infrastructure all over the country. Most of the growth right now is going toward the massive Olympic stage show in Beijing; they are practically rebuilding the entire city. When the games are over, you will see a lot of this frantic activity slow down tremendously." Just one perspective, but considering the source, I found it quite interesting. This, of course, is an issue separate and apart from the fact that they own an incredible amount of our debt. Another poster has pointed out this risky corner we have painted ourselves into in that regard. | |
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| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 3/4/2008 10:04:42 AM | | Lor A Mercy! Dow down another 170 already today with Bernanke telling banks to write off a percentage of outstanding mortgages- brilliant! Let me see if I have this concept correct.............you and I have made all our payments, therefore we have to continue to pay the entire balance. The fellow down the street has not made payments in a year, so our bank tells him, "you owe $100,000; tell 'ya what, pay us $50,000, and we'll call it good." Can we all get in line for that lottery ticket??? | |
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Jemue
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Joined: 1/26/2005
Msg: 14 | |
| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 3/4/2008 10:32:58 AM |
The fellow down the street has not made payments in a year, so our bank tells him, "you owe $100,000; tell 'ya what, pay us $50,000, and we'll call it good."
Smarts indeed ........ as the value of the currency and the house goes down.
Though the fall is slowing at the moment :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7277088.stm | |
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Jemue
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Joined: 1/26/2005
Msg: 15 | |
| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 3/6/2008 10:08:35 AM | Looks like the UK and Europe are holding at the moment :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7280836.stm
Will be interesting to see how the ripples/changes coming out of the US affect the world in the short & long term. | |
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| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 3/7/2008 3:36:37 PM | | Seems to me that in times like these; " Value Line becomes worth it's weight in Gold. " Go to your library and research part#1 page 34. Look for stocks currently selling for less than fair value and as they continue to be beat down, collect, collect, collect !!! Will also be giving Peter Leeds a viewing. | |
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| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 4/17/2008 9:56:19 PM | | Rising gold prices $943.00 US per ounce shows where a lot are investing safely....rising gold prices used to grab a lot of media attention .......other safe havens include banks who typically do well during recessions , bonds perhaps ,energy of course , certain commodities (food,people don't stop buying food during a recession....food prices are rising) | |
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| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 4/17/2008 10:37:21 PM | well from my understandings the market goes down in the year of usa elections ... as the current presidents budget is blown and affects the over all spending/economy...
so investors anywhere in the world where usa market affects .... can withdraw during this time...
and usually once a new president is instated and his new budget released... consumer confidence can bound back..
but whats different this year... is housing/land that boomed is having a correction.. and so b anks are affected from not getting money back..
so banks.... i wouldnt say investing in bank stocks are too stable..
also companies involved in margin lending ..now finding their property/ land etc is no longer worth what they borrowed against... get affected...
my consumer confidence is blown in stock market... i think alot of people will get stuck in it trying to recoup their losses but find that it might take years... and lose more in the process. i guess some will jump in /out and make a buck.. but its extremely risky at this point in time.. id rather buy something else then blow an ulcer from the stress.
plus its a global recession predicted... so consumer spending gets cut back..
plus... usa foreign debt.. and falling greenback...
change this alot..
the fact that china .. still trades with usa considering the debt looks hard to ever recall. ... and holds alot of food sources for export...
plus... the middle east situation... re iran asking for euro currency instead of usa $..
if it gets volatile over there.. and if china decides to back that.... or
etc change to euro......... for food etc giving up on the greenback..
the cost of everything will practically double..
so uk i think i read is going euro in 2011..... slowly its becoming the prefferred currency ... as benchmark..
im watching the euro... Id say anyway you can make money that gives you payment back in euros... would be a good choice..
even spending some of your money just stocking up on certain food items.. ie fill your freezer with meat... pantry with canned goods.. toiletries etc...
might sound basic. but .. watch as these things go up over the next few years.. you might find youve actually made money by saving money if that makes sense..
ie beating ongoing ... price rises..
that i think is a guarrantee. with rising oil . (if all goes to euro even more)
and food shortages..
the other interesting thing about currency was the talk of a 1 currency for usa/canada and mexico.... I cant remember what it was called... ...
but if that happens... im guessing it would be when greenback has fallen alot more....
now ive just got to think of a product to sell online that i can earn euros from..lol
smiles/peace | |
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| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 4/18/2008 6:00:40 PM | Try:
Commdaties, including gold, steel, foods ect.
Green technologies..
Energy
Water
American tourism companies. A weaker dollar makes America very attractive for tourists.
Telecom companies, especially ones expanding into China and India.
All the above are pretty sure fire investments if you ask me......And you did, so there you go 
Just be prudent and don't invest beyond your means and you can't really lose.
Edit: With regard to Iran and the Euro^^^^^^ If this ever came to pass the US economy would be devistated so I'd invest in Arms manufacturers and Oil because A: we probably would be talking about WWIII. B The price of oil will rise 10 fold.
Iraq tried selling oil for Euros back in 2000 and look whats happened there. | |
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| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 4/18/2008 7:58:16 PM | ^^^^^^^above post... maybe you will find this news article..interesting
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/03/27/business/euros.php
China and Russia, which oppose the idea of sanctions from the UN Security Council on Iran, also take part in resolving North Korea's nuclear weapons programs.
for those who are not up to date with iran war tactics/skills ... research.. http://www.warwithoutend.co.uk/zone0/viewtopic.php?p=412635&sid=5e34b2882240bd55c362735b00bff68f#412635
thats just 1.
smiles/peace
Iran presses oil customers to pay in currencies other than dollars
ReutersPublished: March 27, 2007
BEIJING: Iran is pressuring its oil customers to start paying in currencies other than U.S. dollars and many have begun to comply, people in the oil industry here with knowledge of the practice said.
Zhuhai Zhenrong Trading, a Chinese state-run company that is the biggest buyer of Iranian crude oil worldwide, began paying for its oil in euros late last year as Tehran moved to diversify its foreign exchange reserves away from U.S. dollars. The company, which buys more than a tenth of the oil exports from Iran, has changed the payment currency for the bulk of its contract of roughly 240,000 barrels per day, the people said.
"Most of China's purchases have shifted to euro," a Chinese state oil trader said. "It's not difficult so long as our banks can handle that."
Japanese refiners, who buy about 500,000 barrels per day of Iranian crude, nearly a quarter of Iran's 2.2-million barrel daily shipments, continue to pay in dollars but are willing to shift to yen if asked, people in the industry and officials said separately.
Iranian officials have said for months that more than half their customers have switched their payment currency away from the dollar as Tehran attempted to diversify its reserves, but news of the change by Zhenrong is the first outside confirmation.
Today in Business with Reuters
Citigroup records a loss and plans 9,000 layoffs
Era of in-flight mobile phone use begins in Europe
Optimism over Citigroup's results spurred sharp gains in U.S. and European stocks
The price of Iranian oil is still quoted in dollars.
The shift, being watched closely by foreign exchange traders, coincides with an extended dispute between Tehran and Washington over Iran's nuclear program.
China, which depends on Iran for about 12 percent of its imported crude oil, has at times used the threat of its United Nations veto to blunt Western measures against Iran.
The UN Security Council on Saturday imposed new sanctions on Iran as Tehran refused to halt its nuclear program, aiming at arms exports and 28 Iranian individuals and entities.
Hojjatollah Ghanimifard, responsible for international affairs at National Iranian Oil, said last week that about 60 percent of Iran's oil income was in nondollar currencies as almost all of its European clients and some of its Asian customers had agreed to make payments in currencies other than dollars.
Iran is a leading oil supplier for China, with daily volume of 335,000 barrels last year. Sinopec, a Chinese company that is Asia's top refiner, is still paying in U.S. dollars, a Sinopec trader said.
Japanese buyers, including the country's top refiner, Nippon Oil, said they had all received informal encouragement from Iran to pay on nondollar terms, but were awaiting an official request.
"We are looking at it so that we can switch the currencies any time, but we have not gotten any official requests from them," the Nippon Oil chairman, Fumiaki Watari, said last week. "We are doing the transactions in dollars."
Iran is cutting its U.S. dollar reserves to less than 20 percent of its total foreign currency holdings and will buy more euros and yen as tensions with the United States increase, Bloomberg News reported from Kuala Lumpur, citing Iran's central bank governor, Ebrahim Sheibany.
"We are trying to diversify our reserves and of course it is very natural to switch to currencies other than U.S. dollars," Sheibany said.
He added that Iran had no "meaningful" economic relations with the United States.
About 20 percent of the country's $50 billion to $100 billion of foreign reserves is in dollars, he said.
check out the links ive been watching this for years.... not many are aware nor want to acknoweldge the reality of expanding war in middle east..
also you will find many articles if you search on how to win an economic war... but devalueing greenback.. and bringing a country to its kness. also check out russia/china agreement re piping oil in.. so russia/china..iran bond even tighter.
also re technology.. you might find this interesting. for a future .. using less oil..
it wouldnt be a great idea..
http://www.hytechapps.com/aquygen/hhos
smiles/peace | |
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| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 4/19/2008 2:51:51 AM | ^^^^^^ Hence, the WWIII speculation.
To turn this thread slighty political: America is running out of time with regard to mainsteaming new technologies.
If a portion of the monies invested in the 'war on terror' had gone towards these new technologies the world would be in a lot better and safer state than it is today.
I'm forever the optimist and being a doom monger goes against my nature but if the facts are staring you in the face it's hard not to see what the potential outcome of this situation might be.
I would advise to keep watching the words of the US administration. If recent history has tought us anything it's that you can usually get a scense of what thier ultimate goals are by reading between the lines, not listening to what they say.
Off now to look for more optimistic facts  | |
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| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 4/19/2008 3:11:22 AM | ^^^^^^^ooops dyslexic...
i wrote..
it wouldnt be a great idea..
i meant...... wouldnt IT be a great idea... apologies..
well we can be optimistic...... but cautious of reality..
reality says government/countries and politics affect global markets and what to invest in ...in the future..
Id also advise investing where you can get your money back relatively quickly. /easily
smiles/peace | |
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| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 4/19/2008 3:24:22 AM |
I would like to see a NON NAME CALLING, CIVIL discussion of options for safe money havens and/or reasons to hold, while this continues to work toward a bottom. I fear this is going to be quite a while, given the damage occurring in all areas. I just do not see ANY good news on the USA economic horizon.
While proper diversification is extremely important, NOW is the best time to invest in the stock market and the absolute worse time to pull out. People who do that are in effect 'buying high and selling low.' The USA is facing lots of issues and some very serious competition, but we are still the world's largest economy and our top corporations are known around the world. That isn't going to change anytime soon.
In most financial situations I would recommend not making any withdrawals from the stock market right now. Recessions happen and are a part of life, this one will come and pass as well (but it will be more severe than the last few). But I would strongly recommend people look at their asset allocation and make their future contributions go to what they are more comfortable with.
But selling now is foolish, imo. | |
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| Moving $ from further USA stock market beating
Posted: 4/19/2008 3:35:22 AM | Reading some of the replies above mine I am struck at the ignorance of basic investing displayed by some posters. I would recommend this advice to anyone... educate yourself on investing, how it works, why it works and how to develop the right plan for you.
DO NOT take financial advice off a message board from people whom for all you know have no idea what they are talking about. Go to any bookstore and they have many books on investing and many are written with the novice in mind. Educate yourself and make your own decisions and not rely on others. It's not as complicated as most people think.
If someone offered you $100,000 to read a book, everyone would jump on it. Offer the same book and say it can help you develop a portfolio of $100,000+ and people shy away from it and declare it's too complicated without even cracking the cover. | |
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