| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 3/13/2008 9:09:42 PM | In the USA, it is probable on the current trajectory that gasoline could surpass $8 per gallon in five years. Many cities, such as San Francisco and Portland have completed or initiated disaster scenarios exploring how to support core services as prices continue to escalate. These plans intentionally don't address issues of social chaos and structual collapse, rather, they focus on incremental steps to offset starvation and the like. Can or should broader consequences be ignored?
Some futurists suggest that big cities will no longer be viable locations to live. Cities rely upon fuel-hogging engines to transport food and necessary goods into cities and garbage out. What do you think a large city near you will look like and react to as prices escalate?
What will be the alternative? How will you live? Where will you live? How will societies change? | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 3/13/2008 10:27:32 PM | If the tree huggers didnt have the politicians in there pocket, we have plenty of oil here we could go after. They could also drop the gas tax. It was meant for the building of interstates. Well, they arnt building so drop the tax.
E85 sure isnt the answer. It takes more energy to produce then it does for gas. You get up to 25% less per miles so your not saving anything by using that. Its also driving food prices through the roof.
As for what will happen, I see a lot of people out of work and homeless. | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 3/14/2008 4:36:42 AM | ^^^ Yup. Petrol is currently averaging £1.07 /litre here - and rising. That's $8.23 per US gallon at the current exchange rate.
Everything still works, the petrol prices aren't causing any kind of nationwide disaster...
Personally, I am interested in "off grid" and "self-sufficient" ideas and I am trying to learn and do what I can. It feels wrong to be damaging the planet. | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 3/14/2008 5:42:17 AM | | I'd think that bigger cities would be the only viable place to live. In larger cities there would transportation such as electric trains,solar powered or electric cars,etc. People may have to live closer to their work,though. Where the real problem would be is rural areas. I've had to drive up to 60 miles for my work,and the price of fuel is already becoming restrictive. Last year I spent most of the time staying in a small camper close to work instead of being home every night with my family,as fuel would be costing me more than $600 a month. | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 3/14/2008 10:06:07 AM |
I'd think that bigger cities would be the only viable place to live
Nope, I agree with the view of who the OP terms "futurists". Where is your food going to come from?
I think rural places with self-sustaining infrastructure ie: alternative energy sources, etc are already more prepared for crisis. We often live without power (like yesterday for a while but sometimes it's off for days or even weeks during stormy winters). We eat from the garden, drink from the well, heat and cook with wood, trade with neighbours.........
We are going to get chickens and are building a new greenhouse......
I wouldn't be in the city for anything. Dependent on the grid and trucked in food...scary. | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 3/14/2008 10:47:25 AM | | The fact is that it is cheaper to mass transport goods efficiently than it is to transport millions of people in private autos which is an inevitable result of suburban development patterns. 2nd, the ecological systems and processes that we inevitably rely upon require space in which to operate. Properly designed (green) cities is THE ONLY possible solution for housing the world's growing population in an ecologically and economically sustainable manner. | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 3/14/2008 12:46:14 PM | They are going to have to raise the wages for people to actually make ends meet.
There is no way the majority of people (lower-middle class) are going to be able to survive with the price of everything continually going up, because of fuel costs.
As bad as it has been already with all of the fuel fees tacked on our bills, and reflected in our groceries, and other necessities. If it continues people are either going to have to get on assistance, or the wages are going to have to increase to the cost of living.
I drive an hour each day to get to and from work, six days a week, I doubt they are going to have public transportation going to all the areas that the people work.
And as far as where I work , a restaurant, who will be able to afford to eat in restaurants.
If this gas crisis continues, people are going to be lucky if they can take care of the expense of necesities, so many businesses will have to close down.
Sounds like we should all start planting gardens, and learn to be more self-sufficient.
I do not think I am zoned for livestock though, not a laughing matter , I know.
But seriously, in our lifetimes, we have not ever faced this sort of uncertainty.
We are all pretty spoiled, and most of us do not have the skills or knowledge to deal with what we may have to face.
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 3/14/2008 1:06:20 PM | I think lack of personal planning and reliance on the governments centralized services, and the public sectors trappings of conveniences have trained the masses into learned helplessness. This of course is fine if the rate of growth is sustainable. However it is clear it is not.
So at the end of the day when the poop is flinging of the fan. The public will have no food, no place to grow their own food, and will have to pay large bills for utilities and possibly a mortgage. Not so good when the place you live has no work or prospects.
Decentralization of all public services and incentives to make people responsible for their own power and water and waste disposal would be a first start of being able to put tax payers money to better uses. Next if the government would decentralize the farming systems making it more friendly for local farmers to deal directly with their customers and promoted small veg gardens.
Getting rid of the giant grocers that have bankrupted our local smaller shops would be a good thing to. I remember when i lived in Canada I seen the effects that big chains had when they moved in to communities. Literally thousands of jobs end up being lost and much of the local money ends up going to centralised giant businesses that don't have anyone's best interest at heart other then themselves. They make us dependent on them and its not for no reason at all... | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 3/15/2008 7:47:45 AM | | Now is the time to rethink your priorities. Don't wait and don't believe the government will help you, either. They are the ones that put you in this predicament. It's better to be safe than sorry. | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 3/15/2008 10:07:17 AM |
trained the masses into learned helplessness
Decentralization of all public services and incentives to make people responsible for their own power and water and waste disposal would be a first start of being able to put tax payers money to better uses. Next if the government would decentralize the farming systems making it more friendly for local farmers to deal directly with their customers and promoted small veg gardens.
Awesome post crazylilting. Well put.
But, I think we have made a trap with petroleum-dependent industrial agriculture......and how far up the food chain people in the developed world are accustomed to eating..... | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 3/22/2008 11:44:22 AM | The future of societies may hinge on the liberation of minds from mass media, leveraging every individual's ability to research on their own and develop independent thoughts—especially while we have enough surplus power to keep the Internet running. Some good points were made here, but can anyone think about this in greater depth, bringing in more analysis or citations?
For example: let's use Great Britain as a case study. Fuel prices are already twice what they are in the USA due to higher government taxes. In five years, petrol prices double. What then? Food is not currently being brought in by electric trains. Goods are imported by diesel cargo ships, unloaded with diesel machinery, moved with diesel trucks. How much horsepower is required to do all this now? Answering that question will lead us to understand how many watts must be generated from solar panels if solar is the answer. Also factor in the watts required to power all mass transit and match the electrical power requirements for the cities throughout the country. You also need power for pumping water in and sewage out, or the cities will fail. It may require more open land mass for solar panels than is feasible. Solar panel generation efficiency can be cut by more than half on cloudy days. Plus, agriculture will need to be localized within the country more, which may preclude production of biofuel from sources such as switchgrass.
If the solar electric capacity is not there today, it is not realistic to expect it will be more cost effective to convert in the future. Why? Because producing solar panels is a very industrialized process and as fuel prices increase, or fuel becomes scarce, the cost-benefit ratio of meeting future needs will decrease. Just as global demand for a limited supply of oil increases the cost, so will global demand for solar efficiency increase the cost of those solutions. Even without crunching the numbers, this thought experiment seems to be leaning toward the conclusion that an electric society of large cities in Britain is not feasible. What then? Are Brits prepared to add more nuclear power plants? | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 4/4/2008 12:51:53 PM | | Wow, I throw out a challenge for people to think about what they say and back it up with facts and then NOTHING MORE!? So it is all fine to pop off with unsubstantiated opinions but a little work and thought is just too much to ask? Our world is doomed. | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 4/4/2008 1:28:46 PM | Well i've just moved to the uk a year ago and i have some observations about the country in general that makes it different then the united states and Canada. First the size of the country can fit in one province in Canada and has twice the population. From that perspective shipping anything around the country does not take as much fuel as shipping in USA or Canada. Prices are twice what they are in canada for almost everything and even more in some cases. What is even more astonishing is there is twice as many people here in the uk paying taxes then there are in Canada. You would think that prices in the uk would be far less then they would be in Canada with these conditions but they aren't. Where all this tax money goes is beyond me. I don't see it being used for anything. The roads are appalling other then the highways.
But people seem to drive on the wrong side of those causing horrible accidents and causing grid lock. But that's a whole other environmental issue. Imagine if people got the bill for all the wasted gas and environmental impact for an accident... I think driving habits would change.
There have been talks about constructing several nuclear plants. There is also talk about erecting a massive amount of wind turbines as well. I sure hope they go with the turbines. There is a lot of hope here though with incentives for green building and goals to have all new builds to be zero carbon at some point not sure of the date. Its funny they are going this way and yet still allowing people to burn coal to heat their houses... Its a funny country. | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 4/6/2008 11:08:20 AM | Good post crazylilting! Interesting observations.
Someone told me recently they thought that brits have had such a history of dealing with poverty and massive social problems (plagues, WW II) that a large segment of the population is tolerant, if not used to, living at poverty levels. And some recent generations in places like London have lived their entire lives without being employed.
One good thing...with the history of maritime exploration and trade, it would probably be easier for the UK than other countries, to return to bringing food into the country with sailing vessels. Will there be enough horses and carts for distibution within the country?
Does anyone know of any country in europe transporting freight by electric trains? | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 4/6/2008 12:20:39 PM | I think solor power is a good idea. I think that every house that can utilize the sun should be fitted via government incentive and partnerships with the power manufacturers. Whilst it is sunny the panels can supply the grid reducing the need for future power plants.
I also think that incentives for vegan and vegetarian diets should be implemented. The lack of education and awareness of the actual cost of Factory farming on the world is rather shocking. There are estimates that 1/3 of natural resources and fossil fuel is used for meat production. Not to mention one of the three largest causes for global warming. %80 percent of agricultural land in the usa is devoted to either raising or feeding animals for consumption and a shocking %50 of water.
Limiting the cheep sources of meat that are destroying our environment will encourage small farms to provide more local sources of healthier meat and hopefully less suffering to the animals that feed our nations.
I think it is even more important to undo the trend of learned helplessness the human race has adopted from the conveniences of super markets and other predators that prey upon us for money we haven't even made yet.
Mankind is headed in a direction that has been started by those who will never have enough to satisfy their greed and it is time that mankind took back their power to live more sustainably and economically. However i think this starts with individuals. | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 4/21/2008 8:58:03 AM | Peak water. Check out the current Wired magazine article about how the access to water will decline as global population increases.
This parallels discussion relating to peak oil which hit some time ago.
The article explains how the UK is hit particularly hard by this. The population density in places like London is so high, and the ancient water distribution system loses 30% of the water through the pipes. It is nearly impossible to replace all the water systems with the city built over them. And desalinization is a huge energy consumer. | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 7/6/2008 4:04:33 PM | It takes 1/4 of the diesel for a locomotive to haul one ton of freight than it does for a diesel truck. Makes you wonder why there are so many trucks on the road.
Also, to make just one gallon of E85, it takes 3/4 gallon of diesel to produce it. Then it has to be transported.
What is wrong with this picture?
My long term goal is to move to a property with a year round stream or at least a water source if there is no p0wer. Solar and water collection are important as well as the ability to grow your own food. A passive solar house would be great too, because we just don't know how this planet is going to turn out in the not so distant future. It could be terrible. | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 7/6/2008 4:31:32 PM | ^^^"""My long term goal is to move to a property with a year round stream or at least a water source if there is no p0wer. Solar and water collection are important as well as the ability to grow your own food. A passive solar house would be great too,..."""
Good luck with it. My chum just finished his place out in the bush. A modest 2 bedroom home with in floor radiant heating from his solar panels. Bought a relatively inexpensive double garage kit package and made a few modifications to it for windows and doors etc. If the urge strikes him later on, He can lift the roof off with a boom and put a 2nd storey on. Totally off the grid. That's three of my chums out there now.
That's where I'm headed to in the next few years hopefully. I thought i'd finally found my ideal piece of land, (65 acres backing onto a river with tons of fish)but buddy seems to think it's worth about 5 times more than what it really is, so the search continues.
Far from the madding crowd. Ahhh. how nice that sounds.That'll be where they bury me.  | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 7/8/2008 11:56:11 AM | Hi knightvoyage,
I looked for Peak Water and found nothing you got a link?
My special someone has been looking into idea's to become more self sufficient and one thing she found is a rain water storage with a pump to use for toilet and laundry. It is amazing that so much treated water gets wasted when such an inexpensive and not to difficult to install system can be installed to reduce the demand on the supply.
Look forwards to reading the article if i can find it | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 7/8/2008 12:47:53 PM | Here's one article that has some links to peak water down at the bottom of it:
Peak Water: Running Out of Water?
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/rpt/PeakWater.html
And here's a bunch more possible links to other stuff:
http://search.live.com/results.aspx?q=%2bpeak+water&FORM=RCRE
I watched this other video last night after i stumbled onto it after reading someone elses thread about permaculture. These guys are pretty interesting. They have a series of pumps that redraws the runoff down their vegetated hills into a pond and then pumps the water back up the hill to rewater their grounds.
Bullock Brothers Homestead - A 25-Year Permaculture Project
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oW7LcNAYBWg&feature=related
EDIT: ps This might be the article the Op was referring to from his referenced Wired magazine.
http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2007/11/wiredscience
3rd video down about halfway down the page.
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 7/10/2008 2:52:18 PM |
It takes 1/4 of the diesel for a locomotive to haul one ton of freight than it does for a diesel truck. Makes you wonder why there are so many trucks on the road. That's assuming a **full** load for the locomotive-and one of the reasons that there are a lot of trucks is because we -as a society- don't locate all the grocery stores, department stores, hardware stores, and appliance stores next to railyards...back in the 80's and 90's, trucking companies basically went dock-to-dock; now, many of them do "piggyback" their trailers on rail flatbeds-this has proven not only to be more efficient for them, but also helps in recruitment and retention of drivers, i.e, the drivers get home more often because they are running locally or regionally rather than across the entire continent.
It costs even less to send something via ship or barge, but this is even less flexible vis-a-vis where there's water vs. where people live. | |
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| Future of Cities and Communities
Posted: 7/11/2008 11:42:59 PM | Actually, the program I watched was Modern Marvels about the Locomotive. It specifically stated that PER TON, a locomotive uses 1/4 of the diesel than it takes to drive a diesel truck carrying the same 1 ton. It did not have anything to do with how many cars were pulled on the locomotive or if the trailer was full behind the truck. They were comparing a fixed weight and amount of diesel consumed.
I live in Oregon and I frequently see 3 trailers pulled by a truck. That is good and well, but when there are train tracks available to use, most of the products should be carried through to rail yards and then picked up by the trucks o distribute locally. About a month ago, I heard a story on NPR, in which this person that owned a particular track, did not have the money for repairs. A transportation company said they would be happy to use the track and will pay handsomely for it, but they would not pay to repair the track. Even though it would have cost less in the long run over trucks, they did not want to invest the money in a track they did not own. So, the track is closed. Makes perfect sense. This country is so screwed up. Seriously. Thanks Standard Oil and Henry Ford. Appreciate it! Thanks for taking away all our train and trolley tracks.
In Europe and Japan they invest heavily in magnet trains. They are planning to get a high speed magnetic train going in Los Angeles area, but the cost is exorbitant to construct because it has to be funded by private donors, not the government. In Texas, there are plans in order to construct a magnetic train to span the entire state. It is in the plan to actually haul freight with it, but that is also off in the future somewhere since the train itself is still in infancy.
We need to really focus on our public transportation and our basic transportation needs because the US is really falling behind the rest of the world on soooooo many levels. It is embarrassing! I lived in Scandinavia a long time ago and I would take the tram (trolley) around town. Then if there was a place further out where the trams wouldn't go, you take the bus or the metro. MOST people rode this public transport and were quite happy with it. We need to get away from our cowboy mentality and make our infrastructure at least as advanced as other countries. We are supposed to be the best country in the world, after all.
In Eugene, OR, we had a full fleet of hybird buses for about a second. They were great and they carried the same amount of people to and fro. They got rid of them and replaced them back with even larger stinky, diesels that clog up the town. Shameful.
I love trains. I think they are so charming and incredible pieces of machinery. I was raised in the town where the No. 3 steam locomotive that was featured in Little House on the Prairie series ran. I used to walk home on the same track and frequently had to move off the track when the tours came through.
The thing is that jobs would not be lost if there were more trains hauling freight. They would still need crews to work at the yards, conductors, repairmen, and people to maintain the tracks. It might even create more jobs. A locomotive goes in for service to have its breaks changed about every week or so. This requires a lot of people to do that maintenance. | |
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