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 Author Thread: obama's chances in the general election
 jmarquise

Joined: 1/27/2008
Msg: 1
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obama's chances in the general election
Posted: 4/23/2008 9:21:45 AM
I have a thought I wanted to throw out there. we all know that there has been record turnout to vote in the primaries. we also know that most people don't vote in the primaries. does everyone out there think that barack obama is going to be this popular, should he win the nomination, in a general election? I know he has done well in some of the southern states, but will he do this well when all the people vote? there are a lot of old school southern democrats that would never vote for someone who is mixed race. especially when he is being touted as the "black" candidate. right or wrong, this is reality. any thoughts?
 AngelKing

Joined: 2/13/2008
Msg: 2
let's get real for a second
Posted: 4/23/2008 9:30:25 AM
I maintain that Obama will crash eventually - Hillary's either going to woo the superdelegates or sue her way in. its a clinton thing. IF Obama makes it to the general election, he has major problems ahead - while most conservatives don't embrace McCain, we certainly abhor the idea of another Carter-esque presidency and will stop at nothing to prevent his ascension to the oval office. That said, expect the tricks to get dirtier, the scandals to have some real legs to them (the Weathermen thing being one of them) and for Barak to eventually cave.

He isn't fit to serve.
 RedTory

Joined: 3/3/2008
Msg: 3
let's get real for a second
Posted: 4/23/2008 9:36:49 AM
You're right on, jmarquise. Obama did well in getting out people in heavily Republican states. If he's the nominee (and many of his supporters are having 'buyer's remorse' ), he will lose these states by a narrower margin than his predecessors.

If the Democrats nominate BO, their penchant for stealing defeat from the jaws of victory will have reached new heights. Go Dukakis! Yeah Mondale!
 K-lo

Joined: 7/31/2006
Msg: 4
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let's get real for a second
Posted: 4/23/2008 9:39:07 AM
I personally think he's a terrorist. Should he win the nomination, I think McCain will blow him out of the water when it comes to experience and actually knowing what the f' is going on. His rhetoric is only going to take him so far. When things start to get more serious . . . and he has to debate McCain - - his puffery won't do. At least I hope not.
 Steven02151

Joined: 2/17/2008
Msg: 5
let's get real for a second
Posted: 4/23/2008 9:39:43 AM
GO OBAMA !!!!!!!!!!!!!
 jmarquise

Joined: 1/27/2008
Msg: 6
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let's get real for a second
Posted: 4/23/2008 9:40:34 AM
I had to change the thread title because one of obama's commi supporters voted to have it deleted. god I hate obama supporters. not all of them, but the lunatics.
 jimtash71

Joined: 3/12/2008
Msg: 7
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let's get real for a second
Posted: 4/23/2008 9:47:49 AM
I honestly don't think the Dems are gonna get to the white house. Just wait until the convention happens with all the super delegate crap Clinton is going to pull. It'll be a wreck and the outcome will leave many voters bitter and angry.
 itechman42

Joined: 7/7/2005
Msg: 8
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let's get real for a second
Posted: 4/23/2008 10:03:41 AM
The thing I've mentioned before that I believe is underrated is that Obama has/had the crossover vote. There is a significant amount of "Obamacans" who aren't happy with the status quo that has been the case under a Republican administration for 8 years. It doesn't feel good to have been those who agreed "Yeah, WMD's bad! Let's go" to find out then that we are in a lose situation with 4,000 of our friends and neighbors dead not to mention thousands of innocent Iraqis when there were no WMD.

McCain would lose a good share of voters to Obama because he does/did seem to be a breath of fresh air. Something different for a 4 year test drive that might make a positive difference. These same crossovers however will never, ever place a vote for a Clinton. An establishment Democrat as full of crap as any Bush would ever be. If Clinton is the choice, then those voters remain with the Republicans.

Obama's weathered a lot of criticisms and not wobbled significantly and I'm not sure what else is left in the kitchen to throw at him. Then we have the Lyndon LaRouche style stories that have made the absurd to be the norm now in a mainstream campaign.

The most significant thing about the Democratic Party nominating process is that we're all just sick of it. Nauseated to the point that many crossovers just might stick with the safe choice and stay with the old affiliations.

I think it's shown since the mid-90s and the losses of the Democrats in Congress at that time, when the Democrats get a renewed chance at new life for a resurgence that chance gets squandered. It really does seem that the Democrats' worst enemy is themselves.
 jmarquise

Joined: 1/27/2008
Msg: 9
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let's get real for a second
Posted: 4/23/2008 10:13:26 AM
I am not saying he doesn't possess some crossover status. I am just saying that 7.2% of american voters vote in the primaries. we are political freaks and make up a fraction of the population. so there is going to be about 90% of new american voters that start paying attention when the time comes. southern democrats won't vote for barack obama in a general election. the southern states are crucial for a democrat to win. I don't think that he has a prayer. either way, I could really care less.
 itechman42

Joined: 7/7/2005
Msg: 10
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Posted: 4/23/2008 10:17:24 AM
So you believe it's McCain either way J-Marq?
 jmarquise

Joined: 1/27/2008
Msg: 11
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let's get real for a second
Posted: 4/23/2008 10:24:14 AM
you wouldn't think so when listening to people in here, or watching people on TV. but something struck a chord in me and made me think. a guy I used to work with told me about when he was talking to his dad. keep in mind, these are north carolina southern democrats. the guy I worked with I turned into a libertarian. so he asked his dad who he was going to vote for. his dad said whoever the democrat is. then he told his dad about the two front runners to which his dad replied "you mean I gotta choose between a n#$%#er or that
b i t c h? I'm going to write in john edwards." I think that there are going to be a lot more people like that out there than we might think. I personally have no problem. people are entitled to their opinions. as bad as that sounds, I highly doubt that mccain is going to do well in detroit for the very same reason. inner city blacks won't vote for an old white man.

I will also tell you this. no matter who wins, our days in iraq are numbered. public outcry is too strong and everyone knows it. mccain will come back as soon as a democrat will. despite what that terrorist group moveon will tell you about the 100 year war. it just won't happen. we will probably begin our withdrawal during the bush administration.
 justwant2no

Joined: 11/14/2007
Msg: 12
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let's get real for a second
Posted: 4/23/2008 10:40:42 AM
I just voted in the PA primary yesterday - and I gotta tell you, it was a tough one. I'm a dyed in the wool Dem, but I can honestly say, I've never been a Hillary fan. . . (frankly, I think if anybody was to be doaling out bj's in the oval office, it shoulda been her - but that's just MHO) Anyway, I got to thinking I might prefer Obama (slightly) just because he's run a clean campaign and that speaks to his conviction to take the high road, etc.. however - and this is the thing I think most people are missing. . . Although I might prefer Obama, if Hillary won the nomination, I'd vote for her (as would most BO supporters, I would think) - but would the Hillary backers vote for BO? THAT's the 60 billion dollar question! And that is why Hillary may just eek out the nomination. Because the D's can't afford to blow it again alienating their own people.
 Larissan04

Joined: 4/28/2004
Msg: 13
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obama's chances in the general election
Posted: 4/23/2008 11:01:22 AM
here are some things i gathered together...you may make up your own mind...obama's chances? hmmm... i'd say they are pretty good untill the general public finds out what a radical he really is...but then again, most people can't name a supreme court justice, so what does that tell you? enjoy...my favorite is at the bottom!


sam graham-felsen is a barack blogger...

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/blog/samgrahamfelsen
http://www.socialistviewpoint.org/mayjun_06/mayjun_06_03.html
http://www.thecrimson.com/article.aspx?ref=349802
http://www.thecrimson.com/writer.aspx?id=11399


barack's ex-weather underground pals:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives2/2008/04/020358.phphttp://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/4/17/151133/172


hatem al-hady, and the organization that he was the head of was closed for links to terrorist groups... he has his very own barack page too!

http://www.frontpagemagazine.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=6203178D-C782-42E2-8D56-765A3D7EDCD7 http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/enforcement/ofac/actions/20060219.shtml
http://my.barackobama.com/page/dashboard/public/gGN9pM
 _JAFO_

Joined: 11/9/2007
Msg: 14
obama's chances in the general election
Posted: 4/23/2008 11:20:00 AM
I have to snicker to myself. I've watched Obama carefully. I've done my research on him, as well as the other candidates.

The reason I snicker is because I went to the library and checked out BOTH of Obama's books he wrote to get a good "feel" for his essence. Below is my perception of what I read.

The first book was in response to a publisher wanting a book written by a black man growing up with all the advantages of the wealthy white. The book was intended to get a closer look of a black mans' views in a country dominated by whites. The book was written in a candid fashion by Obama.

He makes note of when he moved to Chicago and took up his new job. Because his new job was rather obscure he was often asked what he did. Not knowing exactly how to answer--because he really didn't know what he was doing either--he would respond that he was working for "change." People accepted the statement of "change" without questions of what the changes were.

The second book was written by Obama when his aspirations for the presidency were realistic. The whole "feel" of his background in the book changed. The tone of the book is one of a man writing with a personal agenda in mind.

I smirk inwardly when I see him amongst all the political signs around him claiming "change" once again. After all, that term worked for him before in Chicago when he was a young man. And it's working for him again. The term "change" has an intoxicating affect on people and they don't seem to ask for details.

Here's a man who promised his voters that if he became senator he would serve his term and not run for president. Then he immediately set the ball rolling to indeed run for the presidency as soon as he was elected.

He delivers a wonderful speech. I even become intoxicated by his seemingly sincere promises of "change." I don't question the details of how these "changes" will come to fruition either because I WANT to believe him. I want that change just as desperately as the next person.

Every time he holds his hand in front of him with palm facing himself, thumb facing straight up, bouncing his hand in a pattern of three consecutive drops moving progressively outward I wonder to myself if that physical pattern is having a subliminal effect on me. Or have I seen that physical pattern from a past president he is mimicking? He always makes his point by the three bounces -- whether it be his hand, his fist, his finger.

Then I wonder, is Obama taking the winning recipes from past presidencies, pooling them together to make them his own? Is he really after "change" or is he a well educated man who has aspirations of the presidency at all costs?

I don't believe Obama will get the nomination this time, but I believe he will next time.
 K-lo

Joined: 7/31/2006
Msg: 15
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obama's chances in the general election
Posted: 4/23/2008 11:26:07 AM
I have been put-off by the "change" mantra for years now. Obama is not the first to herald the cause for "change" - but he has definitely made it his centerpiece. I vowed to myself, a long time ago, to never vote for any candidate riding on this platform - "for change." It's flippin' redundant! No matter who is elected into the White House (or any other position) - if it is someone other than the incumbent - there will be change. It is inevitable.
 Larissan04

Joined: 4/28/2004
Msg: 16
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obama's chances in the general election
Posted: 4/23/2008 11:38:49 AM
jafo~

obama was a "change agent," or an "agitator." he worked for saul alinsky's group in chicago, and that is where he got his "training." here is some stuff on alinsky. i am certainly no fan of the man. he was a radical hard leftist. check out the wiki page for more sources of info.

note: my biggest problem with obama is that he spent many years here in MY home town...chicago... and he didn't "change" much there. those same neighborhoods are still poor, and full of all sorts of social ills. he also spent several years here in the illinois state senate and he didnn't "change" much there either. if he couldn't change a neighborhood, or change a state, how the hell does he think he is going to "change" a country? if a person can't do it on a small level how can they do it on a grand scale? the only thing obama changes is his ties...

saul alinsky - obama's mentor:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=10305695
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saul_Alinsky
http://www.itvs.org/democraticpromise/alinsky.html


obama as agitator:

http://www.pickensdemocrats.org/info/TheAgitator_070319.htm
 lifeisnow

Joined: 2/8/2008
Msg: 17
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obama's chances in the general election
Posted: 4/23/2008 11:47:59 AM
I heard on a radio talk show elude to a point in fact about the Dem race. OB has to run a clean line ... as it was pointed out on the show by a few men ... he has to ... if he doesn't he loses ground from dis-respecting a women and will lose a larger percentage of women/men voters than he will gain in the popular vote. It is a tip-toe through the PC race on many fronts. Both of them are minorities -- a White Woman with a political history that is partly good and partly can be picked apart. A Black (mixed-raced) Man with a political history that is partly good and partly can be picked apart. A new ticket on the American forefront ill regardless of which candidate secures the ticket.

Both have major prejudices against them and both have support based solely on the composite of the uniqueness of what/who they represent. However - neither of them have gone against McCain and a National Race where the outcome is well thought out and the race is no holds barred. Every possible angle will be brought to fore front with only one left standing.

Clinton is running out of funds. BO is spending like no tomorrow (who knows may or may not be). McCain hasn't had to exhaust funds. We haven't seen the battles begin. Rest assured what is ahead of HC or BO hasn't begun to surface. McCain's group has known with leisure what to prepare for in battle whereas the Dem's have known or had little time to concentrate upon primaries directly in front of them and each other.

It will be history either way ... and an interesting at that .........
 Suthn_Boy

Joined: 7/17/2006
Msg: 18
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obama's chances in the general election
Posted: 4/23/2008 1:59:12 PM
We should keep in mind that so far this race has been child's play.. As many analysts have indicated, to date it hasn't even approached the negativity level of other primaries in the past.

McCain has in his association/on payroll two professional smear machines which have yet to be unleashed. One is the group who did him in in 2000, using dirty tricks, who were then employed by Bush and Rove for that purpose. The other group is the infamous Swift Boat Veterans group of 2004 who did a real number on Kerry, also at the hands of Bush/Rove. Both of these groups are currently affiliated with the McCain campaign.

So while I don't think McCain himself is much of a threat for the top job (and thankfully so), whomever he faces in the general election will clearly be picked to ribbons and undermined any possible way they can. If that turns out to be Obama, he's going to think he was hit by a Mack Truck, compared to the minor Clinton scuffles..

And by the way, Rove is retired, but he still is acting on behalf of this administration and the Republicans. That became clear in a recent mail exchange with NBC. So Rove too, will be VERY involved in the dirty tricks of this campaign.

-Suth'nBoy

 namegame2

Joined: 4/17/2007
Msg: 19
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let's get real for a second
Posted: 4/23/2008 2:21:05 PM

I just voted in the PA primary yesterday - and I gotta tell you, it was a tough one. I'm a dyed in the wool Dem, but I can honestly say, I've never been a Hillary fan. . . (frankly, I think if anybody was to be doaling out bj's in the oval office, it shoulda been her - but that's just MHO) Anyway, I got to thinking I might prefer Obama (slightly) just because he's run a clean campaign and that speaks to his conviction to take the high road, etc.. however - and this is the thing I think most people are missing. . . Although I might prefer Obama, if Hillary won the nomination, I'd vote for her (as would most BO supporters, I would think) - but would the Hillary backers vote for BO? THAT's the 60 billion dollar question! And that is why Hillary may just eek out the nomination. Because the D's can't afford to blow it again alienating their own people.


My take is this: the Obama supporters are the traditional activist coalition of the young, the intellectuals, and the minorities. The Clinton supporters are the moderate blue collar democrats. Since the 70's, the latter have been steadily leaving a party that they feel no longer represents them on a national level. If Obama gets the nomination, many will vote for McCain. But the larger reverberation will be felt afterwards - if Obama gets the nomination and loses the general election, it may signal to the remainder that it's time to bail on the party once and for all.
 SimmahDahnNah

Joined: 7/4/2005
Msg: 20
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Posted: 4/23/2008 4:32:00 PM
The 100 years thing is not just a phrase, j. It might just be reality.


http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/042308S.shtml




McCain's foreign policy is far more consistent than it seems. Much like George W. Bush, McCain sees the world in oppositional terms - us versus them, and good versus evil. McCain speaks often of taking the lead "in fighting this transcendent issue of our time: the battle and struggle against radical Islamic extremism." To him, it is a "transcendent struggle between good and evil." This alone tells us much of what we need to know.




A Manichaean or dualistic approach to foreign policy has a long pedigree in American history, stretching back to the 1600s, when early settlers proclaimed their adopted home a New Israel, a God-ordained refuge from the sins of the Old World. This distinction between the United States and everywhere else eventually became more secular, but it also became more tangible. In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, the U.S. saw itself in opposition to the rest of the world in no small part because it was. Enemies ranging from hostile native tribes to competing French, British and Spanish colonists surrounded the new country on all sides. Presidents Washington and Jefferson cemented this antagonistic attitude with their famous warnings against entangling alliances. They believed neutrality was the only policy that would prevent the great powers from toying with a vulnerable America.




This worldview persisted well after the United States became a great power itself - particularly on the right. During the Cold War, a central tenet of conservatism was that the U.S. was locked in a battle with evil. That was not wrong exactly - the Soviet Union was indeed evil - but it was a hazardous way of framing the conflict. The advent of nuclear weapons in the 1940s had made a more cooperative foreign policy a matter of survival. For the first time, our continued existence depended on stabilizing relations with an enemy; national security was no longer a zero-sum game, no longer a matter merely of us versus them. Which is why both Democratic and Republican presidents concluded that, whatever its sins, they had to reach a modus vivendi with Moscow.
McCain has taken a moral observation that the United States is a force for good battling the forces of evil and turned it into a strategic guide.

Thus, he rejects negotiation with our enemies in favor of "rogue state rollback," repeatedly deriding as "appeasement" the 1994 deal that froze North Korea's plutonium program and mocking calls for unconditional talks with Iran. He conflates our enemies - perhaps one reason he has confused Sunni Al Qaeda in Iraq with Shiite extremists - because evil is monolithic. Much like the right wing in the early 1990s, which first sought to prolong the notion of Russia as an enemy and then turned to China as the next great threat, McCain has turned on Moscow and Beijing as adversaries in a time of peace. Even his proposed new international body, the League of Democracies, can be seen less as a rejection of Bush's unilateralism than as an exalted "coalition of the willing," in which America can avoid the hard work of cajoling and coercing countries with different interests and values, as it must in the United Nations. McCain may nitpick Bush's foreign policy, but the foundation is the same.


Sorry if that was long. It wasn't the whole article, just some good talking points I think are valid and should be addressed.
 HalftimeDad

Joined: 5/29/2005
Msg: 21
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let's get real for a second
Posted: 4/23/2008 5:41:52 PM
I think it's pretty clear Obama would easily win the Presidency.

Just look at how scared the far right is of him - Rush has even got his listeners registering as Republicans to vote for Hillary. I know he pretends that it's all to keep the race going - the fact is they see Hillary as beatable, and Obama isn't.

But he appeals to the voters a Democratic nominee needs to win - Independents, undecideds and crossover Republicans. I remember the Reagan Democrats; after the last 8 years there will be a whole lot of Obama Republicans this year.
 namegame2

Joined: 4/17/2007
Msg: 22
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Posted: 4/23/2008 5:53:30 PM

Just look at how scared the far right is of him - Rush has even got his listeners registering as Republicans to vote for Hillary. I know he pretends that it's all to keep the race going - the fact is they see Hillary as beatable, and Obama isn't.

But he appeals to the voters a Democratic nominee needs to win - Independents, undecideds and crossover Republicans. I remember the Reagan Democrats; after the last 8 years there will be a whole lot of Obama Republicans this year.


It's the other way around, from everything I'm reading. They are much more confident that they can rattle Obama than Clinton.

As for the Reagan democrats, those are Clinton's core constituancy - working class, moderately pro-government and moderately socially conservative. They are why she has been winning states like Ohio/PA/NY etc (they tend to be present in states in which the Democratic party is the majority party) and not those states in which the Democrats are in the minority.

The crossover's that appeal to Obama are a different demographic of crossover.
 jmarquise

Joined: 1/27/2008
Msg: 23
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let's get real for a second
Posted: 4/23/2008 6:04:35 PM
it's not for real. first of all, john mccain can't serve 100 years in office. it's scare tactics.
 jmarquise

Joined: 1/27/2008
Msg: 24
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let's get real for a second
Posted: 4/23/2008 6:08:46 PM

I think it's pretty clear Obama would easily win the Presidency.

Just look at how scared the far right is of him - Rush has even got his listeners registering as Republicans to vote for Hillary. I know he pretends that it's all to keep the race going - the fact is they see Hillary as beatable, and Obama isn't.

But he appeals to the voters a Democratic nominee needs to win - Independents, undecideds and crossover Republicans. I remember the Reagan Democrats; after the last 8 years there will be a whole lot of Obama Republicans this year.



I just posted on base of my personal experience. there are old school democrats in the south that won't vote for him. some because of color, but also because he isn't a real democrat. let's face it, JFK would seem like a right wing nut job in todays politics. obama is very beatable. look at my stats. 7% of people vote in primaries! plus I think that obama is going to look horrible in the debates when the right wing has a stab at him. I mean hell, the left wing is kicking the crap out of him. performing in a debate is much different than reading a prepared speech. and not to offend anyone, we make up that 7% of people who are actually interested in this crap. there's a lot of people out there who don't follow this crap at all.
 Bluesman2008

Joined: 4/2/2008
Msg: 25
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let's get real for a second
Posted: 4/23/2008 6:10:22 PM
I'm not going to waste one more second debating black haters or democratic haters or liberal haters. I'll only say that, if god forbid, McLunatic gets into office (i.e. Bush III) this country is going to be in far deeper feces than it already is. Get over your hate. It's pretty disgusting.
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