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Show ALL Forums  > Science/philosophy  > Are we ready for another Tunguska event?      Mod Threads Home login  
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 Author Thread: Are we ready for another Tunguska event?
 Beaugrand®™©

Joined: 3/24/2008
Msg: 1
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Are we ready for another Tunguska event?
Posted: 5/13/2008 7:21:34 PM
In 1908 a cosmic object, most likely a meteor or asteroid fragment, exploded at an altitude of 3-6 miles in the atmosphere Northwest of Lake Baikal in Siberia, with an explosive force estimated at the equivalent of a 10 to 15 megaton thermonuclear warhead.

From Wikipedia:
The Tunguska Event, sometimes called the Tunguska explosion, was a massive explosion that occurred near the Podkamennaya (Lower Stony) Tunguska River in what is now Krasnoyarsk Krai of Russia, at around 7:14 a.m.[1] (0:14 UT, 7:02 a.m. local solar time[2]) on June 30, 1908 (June 17 in the Julian calendar, in use locally at the time).[2]

The explosion was most likely caused by the air burst of a large meteoroid or comet fragment at an altitude of 5–10 kilometres (3–6 miles) above Earth's surface. Different studies have yielded varying estimates for the object's size, with general agreement that it was a few tens of metres across.[3]

Although the meteor or comet burst in the air rather than directly hitting the surface, this event is still referred to as an impact. Estimates of the energy of the blast range from 5 megatons[4] to as high as 30 megatons[5] of TNT, with 10–15 megatons the most likely[5] - about 1000 times as powerful as the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, Japan and about one third the power of Tsar Bomba.[6] The explosion knocked over an estimated 80 million trees over 2,150 square kilometres (830 square miles). The earthquake from the blast measured 5.0 on the Richter scale. An explosion of this magnitude is capable of destroying a large metropolitan area.[7] This possibility has helped to spark discussion of asteroid deflection strategies.

The Tunguska event is believed to be the largest impact event on land in Earth's recent history;[8] impacts of similar size in remote ocean areas would have gone unnoticed before the advent of global satellite monitoring in the 1960s and 1970s.
Although rare, these kinds of events are not unknown:
The Tunguska event is the strongest, but not the only, significant meterorite airburst in recent history. A selection of similar events follows. This list is quite biased, since recording of meteorite explosive yields is relatively recent:
Date Place Yield of explosion (TNT equivalent) Height of explosion Remarks
June 30, 1908 60 kilometres westnorthwest of Vanavara, at 60°55' N, 101°57'E in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Imperial Russia 10–15 Mt 8.5 km Tunguska event
August 13, 1930 Curuçá River Area, Amazonas, Brazil 0.1-1.0 Mt
May 31, 1965 Southeast Canada 600 t 13 km 1g material from meteorite found
September 17, 1966 Lake Huron, Michigan, United States 600 t 13 km No material from meteorite found
February 5, 1967 Vilna Alberta, Canada 600 t 13 km Two very small fragments found - 48 mg and 94 mg.

Stored at University of Alberta, in Edmonton. [30]
September 22, 1979 Southern Indian Ocean 2 kt
January 19, 1993 Lugo, Northern Italy > 10 kt > -20a
September 25, 2002 Bodaybo, Russia 0.5 – 5 kt
June 6, 2002 Mediterranean Sea between Libya and Greece 26 kt
If this should happen today, with global paranoia and mistrust seemingly at a level approaching that of the Cold War, and considering our inept response to Hurricane Katrina, would we be able to deal with a disaster of this magnitude if it happened in the US? Abroad?
 stargazer1000

Joined: 1/16/2008
Msg: 2
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Are we ready for another Tunguska event?
Posted: 5/13/2008 8:26:24 PM
There are certainly many who are trying to get the powers that be to think about the possibility and to do something about it.

It's ironic that, at one time, there were as many people around the world working on asteroid detection as worked at your average McDonalds. After Shoemaker-Levy 9 hit Jupiter, it got quite a bit of attention. And there are a number of programs still ongoing.

However, it's still not got the funding or attention it deserves.
 Vancer

Joined: 10/29/2006
Msg: 3
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Are we ready for another Tunguska event?
Posted: 5/13/2008 8:53:42 PM
Maybe the powers that be are working on their own method of surviving it and don't want us to know about that, because we function better not knowing we are working towards their survival, while our own is fleeting.
 sam-spade

Joined: 12/2/2007
Msg: 4
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Are we ready for another Tunguska event?
Posted: 5/14/2008 8:35:01 AM
I find it interesting that we didn't stumble during the cold war. Especially with the Lugo event, and even more so with Boris Yeltsin at the helm.
 Greg8002

Joined: 3/11/2008
Msg: 5
Are we ready for another Tunguska event?
Posted: 5/15/2008 2:35:19 AM
A Tunguska sized object is quite small, and would be hard to detect. We should be more worried about Near-Earth asteroids of 1km in size and larger, since the impact of one of these would have the same effect on our climate as a massive nuclear war (a freezing winter that might last months or years and wipe out all agricultural production on the planet, leading to billions of deaths and the collapse of civilisation).
 Beaugrand®™©

Joined: 3/24/2008
Msg: 6
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Are we ready for another Tunguska event?
Posted: 5/15/2008 3:13:24 PM
I'm far less concerned about an extinction-causing asteroid than I am about a city-killer. The extinction asteroid simply means the end of us all, or at least all but perhaps a favored few (which would certainly not include me, or anybody I know), the city-killer could change the political landscape and upset the balance of power in the world- survivable, but most likely unpleasant for most of us.
 mr internet

Joined: 5/10/2008
Msg: 7
Are we ready for another Tunguska event?
Posted: 5/15/2008 3:46:05 PM
Ready? Like with a magic umbrella or a bomb shelter that can hold an entire city? Nope, we are not ready. Nor should we worry about it. Some things are bigger than we can handle. I do think it would be a good idea if we had a color coded warning system for inbound meteors. Then we could at least be screaming in terror, rather than being taken unawares.
 yna6

Joined: 1/21/2007
Msg: 8
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Are we ready for another Tunguska event?
Posted: 5/16/2008 7:33:50 AM
Pretty well everything I've read states they never found evidenc eof a meteorite or fragments of it that would have been the cause of such an explosion.
Other theories state it may have been a bit of anti-matter.
Some think a pin-sized "blackhole" may have temporairly opened.
We may never know exactly what did cause such destruction.
As the cosmic theory goes..."sh*t happens".
 Prairiephotos

Joined: 12/31/2006
Msg: 9
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Are we ready for another Tunguska event?
Posted: 5/16/2008 9:57:40 AM
A Tunguska event would only be a problem if it occurs over a metropolitan area. To anyone interested in Near Earth Objects, I suggest you join the Cambridge Conference mailing list. Do a Google for CCNet.
 Beaugrand®™©

Joined: 3/24/2008
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Are we ready for another Tunguska event?
Posted: 5/16/2008 9:21:06 PM
A Tunguska event would only be a problem if it occurs over a metropolitan area.


It could be problematic if it happened over a military or government installation, or even in the approximate vicinity of a naval fleet performing exercises in any ocean; it would very likely be thought to be an attack by a terrestrial enemy.


Pretty well everything I've read states they never found evidenc eof a meteorite or fragments of it that would have been the cause of such an explosion.
Other theories state it may have been a bit of anti-matter.
Some think a pin-sized "blackhole" may have temporairly opened.
We may never know exactly what did cause such destruction.
As the cosmic theory goes..."sh*t happens".


Russian scientists suspect it was a comet, American and some Europeans think it was an asteroid; surveys of the region have detected traces of asteroid-like, or, arguably, comet-like material- for example:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V6T-3WN70NJ-H&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=ea5dd41e51731b9e8ef9b19d8aebf5de


E.m. Kolesnikov1, Corresponding Author Contact Information, T. Boettger2 and N.V. Kolesnikova1

1Geological Faculty of Moscow State University, 119899 Moscow, Russia

2Research Group of Palaeoclimatology, Institute of Geophysics and Geology, University of Leipzig, D-04303 Leipzig, Germany

Revised 24 November 1998;
accepted 6 December 1998.
Available online 7 June 1999.

Abstract

Method of a search for traces of Tunguska Cosmic Body (TCB) material using layer-by-layer analysis of the isotopic composition of light elements in peat has been offered. Four peat columns sampled at the explosion epicentre indicated significant carbon and hydrogen isotopic effects in its near catastrophic layers. The shifts, opposite in direction, for carbon (?13C reaches +4.3‰) and hydrogen (?D reaches -22‰) cannot be attributed to any known terrestrial reasons (fall-out of terrestrial dust and fire soot; emission from the Earth of oil–gas streams; climate changes, humification of peat, and so on). Moreover, the isotopic effects are clearly associated with the area and with the time of the 1908 event. They are absent in the uppermost and the lowest peat layers and also in the control peat columns sampled at the remote places. Since calculated d13C value for an admixture of carbon (+51–64‰) is very high, these effects may not be explained by contamination of peat with material similar to ordinary chondrites or achondrites, too. Such heavy carbon occurs in the most primitive CI and CM types of carbonaceous chondrites. However, C/Ir ratio in a cosmic admixture is 10,000 times as many as in CI chondrites that points to cometary nature of the TCB. The isotopic effects are in agreement with the increase of the Ir content observed in peat, but, at the same time, small content of Ir points to the low content of dust in the Tunguska comet that sharply differs it from Halleys comet.


Just google "Tunguska material"
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