| peak oil
Posted: 5/15/2008 12:20:31 AM | opinions, believers, anti believers, and the complete doomers, whats your take on this.
and do you believe amarica will fix its dependence before our demand greatly exceeds the daily supply. do you believe hyperinflation could cause from this in the comming years | |
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| peak oil
Posted: 5/15/2008 3:36:32 AM | I believe that alternative energy sources are much closer than the average myopic American businessman believes, so if this "peak oil" theory holds true, then things may be rocky for a few years, but then we'll transition to something better. Unfortunately, it'll probably be a company outside of the United States that figures out how to economically harness [pick your favorite alternative energy source], because American businessmen at large aren't exactly known for their foresight. If it's not immediately profitable, then the average American businessman wants no part of it. As a result, the process remains unrefined and cost-prohibitive, which means it won't result in immediate profits, which means American businessmen won't invest in it, which means the process remains unrefined and cost-prohibitive, which means it won't result in immediate profits, which means American businessmen won't invest in it, which means the process remains unrefined and cost-prohibitive, which means it won't result in immediate profits, which means American businessmen won't invest in it, which means the process remains unrefined and cost-prohibitive, which means it won't result in immediate profits, which means American businessmen won't invest in it...are you pulling your hair out yet? Somebody in Europe or Asia will show us up; just watch. (Probably Asia; after all, Toyota started selling the Prius during the 1998 model year, when regular unleaded in the U.S. cost 70 cents per gallon -- and look who's getting the last laugh now.)
Personally, I think solar and biodiesel are good places to start. Solar can be used for stationary energy production, as well as secondary energy production for automobiles. Biodiesel can be the primary automotive energy source, and no; it wouldn't need to be produced from soybeans either. It can be produced from simple algae. A biodiesel/solar/electric hybrid car would cut oil consumption dramatically. Thankfully, nanotechnology has led to dramatic increases in the efficiency of photovoltaics, and biodiesel investments are growing rapidly too.
One alternative energy source will not replace oil, but multiple alternative energy sources will. | |
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| peak oil
Posted: 5/15/2008 11:05:31 AM | | yes of course this whould involve switching at least half the fleet to see a big difference. with many people still driving 95s-2000s without a way to buy a new car. change might not happen fast enough. althou im not against seeing a small bump in the road, we have become rather vein | |
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| peak oil
Posted: 5/15/2008 11:32:27 AM | I wasn't necessarily saying that it'd be a brief thing. It'd probably be until about 2015 or so before such a change in oil consumption becomes noticeable. From now until about 2015, though, most people will have to tighten their belts and learn to live within their means. As for the poor who might not be able to afford brand-new future hybrids, there'll be plenty of used Priuses available. Even the late '90s models still return good enough gas mileage that they'd alleviate the pain at the gas pump. (Speaking of the Prius, Toyota just sold their millionth worldwide earlier this week.)
Just let the market do its thing. You'd be surprised by how quickly it reacts. (Take a look at SUV demand; it's fallen off a cliff in a matter of five years.) Also, once businesses realize that alternative fuels can (and will) be profitable, there'll be a lot of investment in them, which will not only refine the process, but make the fuels more widely available, and, hence, cheaper.
On that note, I should reiterate that the ethanol solution does NOT come from corn, but rather, from cellulose. It's much more space- and energy-efficient to produce ethanol from cellulose. The only obstacle right now is cost and availability of the enzymes needed for the reaction. But like I've said, with further investment comes wider availability and cheaper prices. It'll still take at least another five years to reach a critical mass, though. Same with biodiesel; the solution is NOT in soybeans, but rather, in algae. Algae biodiesel is in the same boat as cellulose ethanol: space- and energy-efficient, but not yet cost-efficient. But that, too, will change with more investment.
Basically, if we can get to 2020, we'll be fine. I believe in human ingenuity. | |
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| peak oil
Posted: 5/15/2008 11:35:25 AM | | Well we'll probably run out of oil some day but we'll just develop some new energy source - and let me tell you, it won't be corn. | |
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| peak oil
Posted: 5/15/2008 2:11:11 PM | There are a lot of interviews with T. Boone Pickens on YouTube, saw one today, something from last year said the world was producing 85 billion barrels of oil a day but the demand was for 89 billion? Not sure of the numbers, but the supply is outpacing the demand and it doesn't look like anything more than 85 billion barrels a day is possible.
He believes that oil peaked last year.
Getting the rest out of the ground is more expensive and the scarcity mentality bids the price of oil futures up, it is just going to get worse and worse if these things are true, and not even any better.
My guess is that the reason we are in Iraq is that it is sitting on a ton of oil and we aren't going anywhere. I just wish they would stop lying about it, though. | |
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| peak oil
Posted: 5/15/2008 2:27:44 PM | | The U.S. has oil. We have 700,000,000 barrels of oil right now sitting in our reserves which are 98% filled. We have a lot of oil right off the coast of Florida in the Golf and in Alaska waiting to be drilled, until recently they said those oil reserves will not be tapped into unless there is a real emergency, or will not be drilled due to environmental concerns, but now both parties are getting together and realizing that we need to tap into some of the oil reserves and start drilling more to relieve the gas prices. All I got to say is it’s about damn time. The amount of oil we have in our reserves will last us a very, very long time alone and even if we used some of it, it’s not going to affect it. We haven’t had any major drilling disasters in 40+ years. The safety checks in place today have proved itself that drilling in the golf is safe. We have been drilling there anyhow for over 15 years and even after they got slammed with 4 major hurricanes not one oil disaster came out of it. | |
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| peak oil
Posted: 5/22/2008 5:48:11 PM |
The U.S. has oil. We have 700,000,000 barrels of oil right now sitting in our reserves which are 98% filled.
You're forgetting that American burns 21 million barrels a day. Do the math, you're using 140 million barrels a week. You're 700 mil in reserve is gone in a bit more than a month
They found potentially 15 billion barrels of oil in the Gulf of Mexico.. Sounds big right, till you consider worldwide consumption is about 30 billion a year. It'll take 5 to 7 years to get that oil online and by that time, it'll make almost no difference.
The reality is man, that there hasn't been any major fields discovered for decades. The North Sea is in decline. The stated reserves in the middle east are not confirmed & oddly increased exponentially a few years ago...why? Because higher reserves mean they can ask for higher production targets from OPEC
Someone mentioned T Boone Pickens. Boone is an old school oil man and he publicly admitted on CNBC that "we're running out of oil". What this is known as is "Peak Oil" where we reach the maximum possible production level in history, then it's all downhill. America peaked in 1970 & all the technology in the world has not allowed new wells to come online. There simply isn't anything left.
Peak Oil is going to become the greatest challenge mankind has every experienced. Our entire economic and food systems are built on cheap energy. We've built cities that stretch for miles...imagine life in the burbs with 10 dollar a gallon gas ? Think of where your food comes from. Farming is very energy intensive.
And if you think Peak Oil is some "out there" idea, it's not. There are major players in the oil business that have spoken out about the threat of Peak Oil. A few months back, former CEO of Talisman Energy Jim Buckee publicly stated we're near the end of the cheap energy era.
If we don't quickly mitigate the effects of the Peak...it'll bring the global economy to our knees. We're already seeing airlines shrinking....it'll bring about the end of globalisation & could bring about hyperinflation, a banking crisis & the devaluing of the American currency.
It's not a joke. The oil & gas business (I'm involved in it) is aware...just the general public is too busy seeing everyone in the biz as nothing but greedy villians. | |
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| peak oil
Posted: 6/4/2008 11:27:07 AM | the documentaries
oil, smoke and mirrors
and black gold
are very informitive. ignore the 9/11 stuff i believe they touch base on that a bit, but ts already gone, we know iraq was to eventually lead to oil. just not when its this cheap. and even at 130$ a barral, thats still pretty damn cheap for how much work is forked over just to get it. the goverment has known about peak oil for a long time, the RICH are already stockpilling on everything, and most are getting off the grid completely, and out of the citys | |
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| peak oil
Posted: 6/4/2008 12:18:51 PM | | People really need to do more research into biodiesel before they start hyping it as an alternate fuel source. If is a good idea only if manufactured from foodwaste or other sources where it is a byproduct, if we intentionally manufacture it then it becomes a not only a net loss of energy but converts food crops into cash crops thus driving up the price of food. The same can be said of ethanol. Honestly I'm not exactly sure where the solution to the energy crisis (IE Peak Oil) will lie, but it will probably contain a mix of desnification of population (no more suburbs, fewer single family dwellings, etc), more transit, more efficient vehicles (for whatever energy input they use) and alternate energy sources (solar, tidal, etc). | |
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| peak oil
Posted: 6/4/2008 1:37:35 PM |
Unfortunately, it'll probably be a company outside of the United States that figures out how to economically harness [pick your favorite alternative energy source], because American businessmen at large aren't exactly known for their foresight.
lol....right! American business is usually way behind everyone else. | |
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| peak oil
Posted: 6/4/2008 1:38:29 PM | I personally don't think there is one universal source of energy that will replace oil. I think it will be a combination of wind, biodiesel, ethanol and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
I'm envious of the last group. There are some hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on the road now. California has convert some of their buses to it I believe. I guess someone from California can say yay or nay on that. That’s just what I've heard back here in good old Ohio. But anyway, the high gas prices have led us to finally start examining alternative, renewable energy supplies so its not all bad.
Besides maybe fossil fuels were underpriced before because $.89 a gallon probably doesn't include all the cost associated with that cost, such as air quality. | |
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| peak oil
Posted: 6/4/2008 3:18:13 PM | steven, I believe that should be 85 million bbl per day, not 85 billion.
There are about 1.3 trillion bbl in official reserves left, something like 40 years' worth of oil assuming demand stays flat, reserves are not overstated, etc. | |
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| peak oil
Posted: 6/4/2008 4:28:39 PM | Oil .....
I'll tell you who is cornering the market and driving up the prices on a daily basis....
The oil commodities traders.....
Don't believe me ????
Do your research....
Record Profits..... Record daily Trading..... Etc. Etc..... | |
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| peak oil
Posted: 6/4/2008 5:22:21 PM | And the Arabs are helping by refusing to produce more oil keeping prices inflated.
They are supposed to be an ally? | |
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| peak oil
Posted: 6/4/2008 5:27:22 PM | I hope we continue to work on solar and wind as resources.
As for oil, the state I am in is experiencing a boom, so to speak, and people from all over the US in the oil business are coming here, buying homes, and setting up office. | |
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| peak oil
Posted: 6/4/2008 6:57:43 PM |
lol....right! American business is usually way behind everyone else.
American business rode on the back of American science, which was ahead of the rest of the world. That's not true anymore. For almost 40 years science has been the whipping boy for politics and the media. Do you want to be a lawyer or a nerdy scientist when you grow up?
We've passed peak education in this country. The best and brightest around the world no longer come to the US to study. Scientific innovation over the next century will come out of Asia, not the US.
Case in point - space. Our likely next president plans to slash NASA and scrub the Mars mission to fund his social programs. Meanwhile, India, China, Korea, and Japan are in a race to return to the moon. India is launching an unmanned mission later this month. We no longer have the will or culture to compete.
I don't have a lot of confidence that alternative energy sources will be developed here. | |
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| peak oil
Posted: 6/5/2008 6:39:10 PM |
Oil .....
I'll tell you who is cornering the market and driving up the prices on a daily basis....
The oil commodities traders.....
Don't believe me ????
Do your research....
Record Profits..... Record daily Trading..... Etc. Etc.....
While there is some speculation built into the price (perhaps 15 bucks a barrel), the harsh reality is we simply can't produce more oil than we are right now. Demand is growing & supply is flat which pushes up prices.
Rather than use emotion, look at this subjectively. Some years ago, the reserves of OPEC's big players suddenly increased dramatically because production was tied to reserves. Suddenly, overnight..Kuwait, etc, had 40% more oil than they had the day before. We can't independently audit those countries so we have to believe them. If oil is so abundant, why are the Saudi's pumping heavy sour crude rather than light sweet? Prices are higher for light sweet.
And we aren't making big finds of oil anymore. Everyone touts the recent Brasilian deep water discovery which might bring in 30 billion barrels. Sound like alot, till you do the math and realize it's a years supply. It'll take SEVEN years to get that online. Same for the Gulf. Or ANWAR.
Or people tout the Bakken Formation in South Dakota, etc. That's existed for years & it was never pumped because it was so hard to get. The estimates on reserves are high, but you have to recover that oil...and the sad reality is man, it's not about sticking a straw in the ground to get it. We'd be lucky if we pump more than a million barrels a day from that reserve and get 10% of what's down there.
So I want to ask you this. If it's the market (NYMEX traders) that pushes up oil, why is this just a recent thing? A barrel of crude was 10 bucks in 1999...and only recently has it started to soar in price. Right around the same time that supply has become an issue
Peak Oil is real. You don't have to believe me, but when the CEO's of major energy players talk about it...when Matt Simmons....when T Boone Pickens (America's greatest oil man) talk about it...what's that say? Pickens just bought a wind farm..the man is 77 years old and the American Godfather of crude oil dude. What's that tell you ? | |
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| peak oil
Posted: 6/12/2008 5:49:28 AM | Peak oil was a theory invented when oil prices were low, by someone working for the oil companies.
Does that mean it was just a fear conspiracy, designed to scare up oil prices? Well, they did keep reinventing the date it was supposed to happen....and yet...we all know that oil is a finite resource. Its suspected the Saudis underrated their potential (why wouldn't they?). Either Venezuala or Iraq beat them. No one talks about the Caspian Sea anymore. When oil companies got flush, they spent it on...buying each other's oil fields. A bad sign.
We should have been working in the late '70's for a cure, so that the transition wouldn't hurt. Hence our pain, now. | |
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