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Author
Thread: The wrong answer
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
76 (
view
)
The wrong answer
Posted: 1/31/2010 5:13:55 PM
The whole point is that “CONTEXT” is everything.
This has been clearly explained.
This excuse of “the instructor never clearly stated the question” totally depends on ignoring context
. There is always this immediate assumption that it is the examiner who was being “narrow-minded”, but it has been shown that smug answers are rarely as well thought out as one thinks. We have proven that it has occurred in the fictional story. It is ironic that it is also demonstrated in equally self-satisfied, but fundamentally flawed, attempts at rebuttals here too.
If you have some new angle on this, by all means let’s hear it. But if it’s just ignoring the CONTEXT again, we will refer back to this message.
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.
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Some specific answers…
Msg 76
We have yet to see any legitimate claim that the student had achieved anything more than a big fat ZERO.
Get real. He gave correct answers to the question. How does that merit a zero?
We have already explained why the student did not give a “correct” answer. Giving you the benefit of the doubt that you may have missed it, we shall explain again.
The question was framed in a physics exam, and was further qualified with the use of a specialized instrument with specific functionality. To offer an alternate use without explanation as to why it was chosen over the conventional use is not worthy of marks.
Also, consider that conditions that favour the intended use, may not favour the use of the method suggested by the student (that of chaining.) Had the student mentioned the caveats necessary for his method, chances are he would have attained at least a marginally passing grade for thinking the problem through.
However, since
the implication of the exam was to test the understanding of how pressure is related to depth, it is a requirement to, at a bare minimum, demonstrate it. The student did not so he fails.
The concept of
implied
conditions has also been explained. It is pure folly to consider that one can reject constraints to support answers that require them to be lifted. If this were so, all constraints could be lifted and replaced with convenient ones. Usually methods are constrained because other methods are not practical (and no, one doesn’t always have sight lines available or the luxury of triangulation). It would be like offering the solution of “just use a pry bar” only to discover that the reason you were asked to employ a smaller device with a specific method was because there was NO ROOM to use a lever (or resources to build an adaptor.) What was that? They should have said so? Nope. They already implied it when they gave you the device with a specific method.
Msg 76
I'd have given him full marks...more if it were possible for the creative thinking involved.
The test was on barometric concepts. Answer that and receive full marks. If one is considering “creative thinking”, that can be applied after achieving the main goal. Whether that creative thinking is in the form of method and error analyses, or a combination of that and a lovely pen and ink caricature of the instructor,
that
is the way to express real creativity. (Of course, all sorts of essay into the character of the instructor, or claims of victory based on false data are not.)
Msg 76
If I had made up the question like that I would be the one (rightfully) humbled by his clever answers and bite the bullet of my pride. IMO the question reveals more of the test taker than the student. Obviously it wasn't framed in such a way that allowed no logical alternatives (which it ought to have been if the one making up the question was worth his salt as an educator)
This is the presumption that always elicits so much anger when refuted. The truth is all those “clever” answers are actually poorly thought out. Has one even considered the inherent problems with draping a “rope” over the edge of a tall building? (Yes, that includes Burj Kahlifa.) Geometry, material properties, oscillation, etc are all important factors. What about the pendulum methods? Did the student really demonstrate knowledge of their limitations within the domain of answers to be expected? H.G. Lucky pointed out the fundamental oversight with the distance to time calculation. The answers were not in the least “clever.”
As far as leaving too much room for interpretation, we have covered this. If the student elects to take the more challenging path… then show the work, and get the bonus points. However, to go for the gold with the game of a neophyte is a recipe for the big fat ZERO.
People think that this is a “hard line” and is not encouraging “creative thought”. Nothing could be further from the truth. Even as a “story”, it has to be relayed that REAL creativity is not as easily come by as that. We do not think a single instructor out there would not be thrilled with seeing real creativity. So, yes… we have, indeed, gotten “real”.
Msg 76
correct in labeling such a statement as nothing more than a lightly veiled ad hominem.
So contempt is good for marks (deducted)? Did it say THAT on the test? The kid was right to find the question an insult to his intelligence. Retaliation with a contemptuous (but correct) answer only points out the flawed question.
You do realize that what you just quoted was an agreement with Rainsands comment about a statement in msg 63 (and not that of the fictional student’s answer). We’ll assume it was an oversight…
Demonstrating contempt is probably good for all sorts of disciplinary action, but many adjudicators are reasonably forgiving. As far as an insult to one’s intelligence, the student may have felt so, but exhibited such a poor “rebuttal” that he gave evidence that his premise of superior aptitude was ill-conceived. Lol. Those “cute” answers proved no intelligence to his insult.
This is why a real “rebuttal” would have gone into analyses of the errors in the conventional method as well as an offer of an alternate solution and its associated error analyses. Of course, none of this mitigates neither ignoring the implied conditions that more precise methods may not be available nor neglecting that the specific knowledge being examined was not demonstrated.
Please read our analogy of about “driver’s license, please” as facetiously “correct” rarely earns one any respect let alone passing grades. If the student felt the question was too open to interpretation, who was really not applying “critical thinking” by not realizing that the question was not about all the other ways a barometer can be used?
Msg 76
a specific instrument with specific attributes is to be used.
...and it was, was it not?
It should be apparent that the specific attributes are the attributes which set a barometer apart from some non-descript piece of modern art or a can of beans. (We did explain this, so specific is adequate a term in this context.) As such, the student
did not.
Msg 76
elevating the problem to one of “choice of method” elevates the complexity of the answer required.
In that case, the question ought not to have allowed for it. If there exist more correct answers than are given in the answer key, whose fault is that?
We’ve already addressed how “playing out of bounds” means playing a more dangerous game.
The question essentially doesn’t allow for it within the explicit and implied constraints. Yes. There are obvious constraints.
If one is in Manhattan (yes, NYC) and ask for directions to Broadway and Third, no one (including that fictional student) can claim “you didn’t ask specifically in which city” and send you on the way to Los Angeles without being speciously obtuse.
We also note that latitude is allowed if the more difficult answer is chosen. If that is not in the “answer key”, it remains to be seen. Just what is in this answer key that we have apparently overlooked?
Msg 76
Discipline in process is not narrow-mindedness no matter how much some want to equate the two
It depends what you mean by discipline in process. If you mean "discipline" as in marking a zero for a contemptuous but correct answer, then that isn't discipline in process, that is narrow mindedness.
That would be “discipline in process” as in procedure to problem-solving (which includes firstly identifying a problem, its scope, and its constraints.) But if one wants to frame that as in respects to the process of adjudication, we have already covered that too.
If one wants to say that the question was ambiguous, we have already demonstrated that it actually wasn’t (read that part about Manhattan again.) If one wants to say that merely offering an alternate method was enough, we have already mentioned that methods than employ poor use of devices supplied, offer questionable results, and may require far more equipment and resources than reasonably available, is incompletion.
We have already allowed much latitude in that not realizing the intended use of an instrument, and instead choose to use it in method that does not demonstrate adequate understanding of the topic being examined is essentially a failing result. Given that, the student had to show that he understood the implications of his methodology (which he did NOT … see the part where H.G. Lucky pointed to the flaw in the d=1/2at^2 calculation).
None of that process in adjudication is “narrow-mindedness”.
If anything, the student was narrow-minded in thinking that the examiner wasn’t aware of all these “cute” answers and would expect MORE if one wants to escalate the challenge.
The mark of a “big fat ZERO” is for an INCOMPLETE answer that demonstrated narrow-mindedness on the part of the fictional student.
.
.
.
The whole point is that “CONTEXT” is everything. This has been clearly explained.
This excuse of “the instructor never clearly stated the question” totally depends on ignoring context
. There is always this immediate assumption that it is the examiner who was being “narrow-minded”, but it has been shown that smug answers are rarely as well thought out as one thinks. We have proven that it has occurred in the fictional story. It is ironic that it is also demonstrated in equally self-satisfied, but fundamentally flawed, attempts at rebuttals here too.
If you have some new angle on this, by all means let’s hear it. But if it’s just ignoring the CONTEXT again, we will refer back to this message.
You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
(Marlets… Enough talk… post up some “knotty” photos… Lol.)
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
73 (
view
)
The wrong answer
Posted: 1/27/2010 7:05:20 AM
Rainsands is correct, concise and relevant, as usual.
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.
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Some Specific Answers…
Msg 63
It seems telling that a majority of the posts in this thread, rather than celebrate a fun STORY about creativity and inventiveness, choose to perpetuate the pedantry that the STORY chose to challenge.
Nope.
The intent of the story was to perpetuate the myth that the fertile mind is unjustly muzzled by the academic system.
The adjudicator is illustrated as being mired in process and presumption, when in reality, even a carefully crafted tale cannot show anything but the student surreptitiously ignoring the context of the question to travel down a differing path.
The “creativity and inventiveness” of the student one refers to is actually “insolence and haughtiness”. We have proven this. “Refutation” of our assertions has also been shown to be based on faulty logic and the usual host of disambiguation (straw man arguments) and diatribes into relatively irrelevant details. We have yet to see any legitimate claim that the student had achieved anything more than a big fat ZERO.
Rainsands is also correct in labeling such a statement as nothing more than a lightly veiled ad hominem.
Msg 63
I'm quite sure that the STORY teller, in designing both the QUESTION and the ANSWER, chose to phrase things ambiguously for the benefit of the STORY. Perhaps the moral is more how WE choose to view the STORY ourselves, thus being somewhat more general than the message of the STORY itself. What does this say about the first sentence of the OP?
That the story teller (and yes, EVERYONE realizes it is a STORY) chooses to be as vague as possible is a given. What is significant is that even then, the teller could not craft it without framing the situation as a PHYSICS exam, and that a specific instrument with specific attributes is to be used. If it were merely a question and not a physics question, AND if no barometer was indicated, you may have a point. As that is not the case, you do not.
Viewing a story correctly does not include leaving out important details.
Even then, many educators are open to evaluating answers that speciously ignore such constraints (there’s nothing “pedantic” about that). We have already covered the point that elevating the problem to one of “choice of method” elevates the complexity of the answer required.
Discipline in process is not narrow-mindedness no matter how much some want to equate the two (nor does discipline restrict creativity: in reality it focuses creativity and places things in perspective.)
Msg 63
In all of the hyperbole about the 'best' method, no-one seems to have come up with any estimates of errors in the (presumed) desired method, or alternative methods in the story, so much of what has been said is mere speculation. Once more underlining the rigidity and even unrealistic arguments that always seem so easy to fall into.
Nope. We are certain that you understand that hyperbole is exaggeration and usually is often meandering trips into simile that border or cross into irrelevancy. The notion of “a best method for the tool given” is not an exaggeration. Hence to label it as hyperbole is incorrect.
As far as the analyses of error, none of it is necessary if the student merely answer the question via the conventional method. We have already covered this.
The only hyperbole we see is when posters (be it this thread or others) have no valid logical rebuttal, and instead take some loosely related detail and expand on it beyond to deflect from being wrong about the salient issue. In some cases, people will employ outright falsehood to do this. As usual, we leave it to the general audience to see where this occurs.
Msg 63
Had the STORY teller chosen a truly smart student, he would have had the student acknowledge the expected answer, defining the expected measures and computations of the solution. In the process, highlighting assumptions and inacuracies (such as the 10% error acknowledged by NOAA - http://www.crh.noaa.gov/unr/?n=mslp) and then go on to list other methods.
Yes. This is what we have maintained.
As far as a 10% error, note that what is being measured and calculated in the link is really quite different from that of the story.
Msg 63
Then, perhaps quoting Occam's razor to weed out excessive additional equipment, inaccuracies and assumptions, come up with the most appropriate solution. My guess would be comparing shadow lengths - or trading the barometer for a rangefinder.
There may be conditions as to why the measurement is to be done by barometric methods (We caution those that think they have refuted this to realize that merely because The Collective does not answer does not mean we do not have an answer.) If a client asks for such a solution, one can certainly offer an error analyses, and alternate methods, but one must remember that assuming the client is “too stupid or too regimented to realize that”, is generally an incorrect assumption.
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Rainsands is correct, concise and relevant, as usual.
You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
25 (
view
)
The Tyranny of Technology
Posted: 1/27/2010 5:10:55 AM
You will all become B0rg... muhahahhaha...
(The tubes aren't that bad, but the nano-technology is sometimes itchy)
You have engaged The B0rg
"Resistance is Futile"
(...now back to the regularly scheduled programming...)
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
55 (
view
)
The wrong answer
Posted: 1/22/2010 10:10:58 PM
Rainsands, your accord is treasured.
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Some specific answers…
Msg 59
It is regrettable that you did not read this thread in its entirety including all of Borg's posts. I would suggest that perhaps he felt he had to break it down step by step because some posters still appeared to misunderstand his explanations hence the employment of what you deem "wordiness".
It is regrettable indeed. However, we appreciate that you concur with our observations.
Your vote of confidence is a particularly valued accolade.
Our posts were constructed to illustrate the logical dynamics of the dilemma. As an expected consequence, they also illustrate the nature of those who erroneously (nay, speciously) believe the fictional student was worthy. As usual we leave it to readers to determine the source of faulty logic, coy deflection, mockery, irrelevant ad hominem, false assertions and generally poor argument.
Lol. Some will likely quip it is from The Collective. Everyone is welcome to their opinion. (For viewers who have naught interest in lots of reading, The B0rg always provides a handy summary on all those “wordy” posts ROFL.)
Msg 59
In my opinion, Borg broke it down as well as it COULD be broken down and I happen to agree with him. By this point, you either "get" it or you don't. JMHO Goodnight.
Yes, and may we add the additional option of “refuses to”.
The Collective doesn’t need to explain the nature of denial… we only need allow it to reveal itself.
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Rainsands, your accord is treasured.
You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
(Lol… “Steal” your own tagline)
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
47 (
view
)
The wrong answer
Posted: 1/19/2010 11:12:56 PM
Please reread the part about “context”. The simple approach would be to use the barometer as a barometer. Again, (yes again), if the student elects to introduce alternate methods (and that is an option), and by so doing, raise the expectations, then the onus is on him or her to demonstrate why his or her solutions are superior to the conventional. Also, one must remember that the constraints of “real life” may preclude other options. This has been explained.
The Collective only has to illuminate it for those who can see it (that includes all of Katharine and Isabel’s categories)
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Some specific answers to Msg 36…
Msg 36
Actually, the expected solution is often NOT the most approrpiate solution, not unless the question is selected very carefully, to match situations in which it would be the best solution.
Really? The conventional solution is often not the most appropriate. We believe you’d have a hard time selling that story. The barometer was “selected” carefully enough. The “cute” answers were not.
When a client asks for a widget, the most appropriate solution is, if there is no further clarification to understand the client’s needs, to assume you know better about his needs and hand him a whatzit. ROFLMAO. Come now. You are purposely missing the point about how it was the student that elected to “raise the problem to a new level” and
assume that conditions favoured an unconventional solution.
In the case of “choice of solution”, the student neither queried for more details nor supplied the assumptions he was making. How are the student’s solutions “better solutions”? Most offered less precision, were slave to more constraints, and required far more material and effort to get a result. It is the student that neglected to “carefully select” his answer that fails him. (Let see if one actually addresses this point…)
Msg 36
That's dependent on the skill of the examiner to design appropriate questions. If the student can find another way to solve the problem, then the examiner has failed at his responsibility.
Please reread the part about “context”.
The simple approach would be to use the barometer as a barometer. Again, (yes again), if the student elects to introduce alternate methods (and that is an option), then the onus is on him or her to demonstrate why that option is superior to the conventional.
Also, one must remember that the constraints of “real life” may preclude other options.
The notion that the examiner failed his responsibility is absurd. It is like as if the student is tasked to list five states in a US geography course and writes down, “Emergency”, “Elastic”, “Deluded”, “Mad”, “Solid”…. Is the examiner to be “warned” for not writing a clear enough question? LoL. CONTEXT is everything.
Most of these “outside the box” responses are actually quite pedestrian. The truth is that many people have thought of them, realized the inherit issues, and worked towards a better solution in the context of the problem given (all within the timeframe allotted too.) This is a truth that appears to cause much angst.
The student did not complete the presentation of his solution since the method must carry with it some details as to what environment factors can challenge the method or perhaps even render it useless. Have a look at Exogenist’s message 24. That is more of the way challenges should be presented.
People often mistake “being outside the box” as enough. The truth is one still has to be in the “right spot” (or spots) outside the box.
Msg 36
WE don't know that. The example doesn't say if the student contested the case or not.
Doesn’t Say? Really? This is why reading comprehension is so important to the foundation of a logical argument, from the FIRST SENTENCE of the story (msg 1):
…He was about to give a student a zero for his answer to a physics question,
while the student claimed a perfect score
…
RoFl.
Just what part of “while the student claimed a perfect score” does not constitute a protest of the initial adjudication?
Please answer this.
At any rate, what we were referring to was not “contest his score” but “contest the RANKING of his SOLUTION” (to other solutions.)
To forgo the conventional answer, and instead present an alternative method
IS
to challenge the conventional to the relative effectiveness of one’s solution. The student didn’t supply the comparison. Look again at how Exogenist’s message 24 mentions challenges to the barometric method. That is contesting. So… Yep. We DO know that (in either conception.)
The example shows that the student DIDN’T offer justification as to why dropping a barometer off the side of a building is better than using it as pressure measuring device.
Msg 36
Even then, he's not being tested on his ability to challenge authority, not in an educational environment, not purposely anyway. If he does, and the examiner is wrong, we don't commend the student, because we're not trying to get the student to challenge authority.
It is doubtful any here believe that any part of the original intent of the exam was to “test the student’s ability to challenge authority.” Again, it was the student that chose to escalate the problem into a challenge of authority. Read the part about “But Officer, you never specified my CURRENT license.” again in The B0rg’s last post (msg 35)
The exam is really isolating and testing for basic understanding of air pressure and how it relates to altitude. That was all. To throw in one’s own conditions to preclude the problem is raising the stakes… it’s been covered.
Msg 36
We tell the examiner that he didn't do his job properly, and this is his first warning. 2 more and he gets the sack. We don't benefit from having idiots as examiners.
Certainly not… but the question was appropriately framed in context. Incompetence is judged on a case by case basis. As much as some of us wish to believe that some examiners are “idiots”, or the mythology that “book smart” and “street smart” are somehow inversely related, we assure you they are largely independent variables. One can be one, the other, or apparently, neither.
Msg 36
In exams, 70%... …95%.
Even if one was “the” authority on how exams are evaluated, we were only offering our experience on it. You may wish to deny “our” recollections if you wish.
Msg 36
However, you can contest even that, if the exam question can be answered by your method, and if you do, you can get 100%.
Sure. Alternate methods are fine. No one is arguing that.
Again, in the case of the fabled student, it was his inability to “show his work”, and by that, was unable to demonstrate how his method was a better approach, he fails.
For those inclined to think that there was “no caveat for the approach to be efficient or more efficient than the conventional approach” then one will have to re-absorb the note about the butterfly effect.
Msg 36
One thing teachers teach you about passing exams, is to always read the question very carefully. If your method does answer the question, then it's a valid answer. If the examiner expected a different method, then he should have written a better question, one that excluded any other method from achieving the right answer.
In there lies the irony.
On one hand, one promotes the freedom for “critical thinking”, yet when faced with a situation that requires one to actually apply “critical thinking” and understand the CONTEXT of the question… one expects the examiner to shelter the student from the ambiguity of “real life.”
Again (this word is starting to look strange as its being used “again”,) it is the story’s student that escalated the question beyond the conventional. Raise the stakes and raise the jeopardy. The Collective, and likely many adjudicators, would be open enough to evaluate a student fairly should they decide to take that more challenging route. However,
“no work”, “no error analyses”, “no exploration of conditions”… big fat ZERO.
Msg 36
However, without appropriate figures, the student is not being asked to demonstrate his knowledge of the formula that calculates altitude from atmospheric pressure. So the student still does not demonstrate appropriate knowledge that is required in practical applications of his knowledge of atmospheric pressure.
We trust Coolnomad has already covered this.
The relative range of values is ascertained from knowledge that the object to be measured is a tall building. Other than that, plugging in some numbers into a set of equations demonstrates nothing but the ability to select a form, fill it out and press “submit”. It is the CONCEPTS behind the physics that is being tested. Everyone has there own experience of this, but as we recall most exams are about the concepts.
If one truly believes the examination process is about testing proficiency in loading numbers into a machine and turning the crank, then this whole exercise in showing how opportunity for “critical thinking” exists is fruitless.
Msg 36
Here is one exercise in "critical thinking"… ….Any surveyor or building contractor or architect caught using a barometer, would be fired.
Ironically, with respects to the exam, that is naught critical thinking.
The constraint of the examination question was that of a barometer. We cannot assume that access to a theodolite, or that conditions will permit sight lines etc are options. Nor can one assume that the requestor needs the height any more or any less accurately than what a decent barometer can offer. All the student is asked is how the barometer can be used to measure the height of the building (and again it is implied that a way involving the specifics of the given instrument, should be offered.)
Msg 36
"You're in an unpressurised plane. Your altimeter breaks. You have a barometer and a scientific calculator, along with some pen and paper. Explain how you would use the barometer to calculate the altitude of the plane."
That WOULD be a valid question, as you cannot just go and get some rope, or a theodolite, or anything else on a plane, not until it lands. You are forced to rely on the barometer to calculate the atmospheric pressure, and to use that information to calculate the altitude. That's a valid question.
Lol. We were actually waiting for this.
The question, as posed is no different to anyone who wishes to speciously ignore context, employ a “cute” answer, and argue for full marks.
Some fictitious student would answer. “The altitude is ZERO or step outside and use the height of the barometer as a measure… you never said the plane was in flight. If it was, use the barometer to toggle the radar/pressure switch to get your altitude (you never said there wasn’t a radar altimeter and everybody KNOWS how much better a method that is). Full marks, please.”
Did one really think that nobody else knows how to play that game?
The point is that there was enough implied to determine that the barometer was to be used as a barometer in the original story. Some only refuse to acknowledge that.
Msg 36
If the examiner HAD asked that question… …serious dressing down.
The hyperbole of that passage indicates an agenda to not just blame, but vilify the examiner rather than examine the fictional student: If moronic laziness was allows to persist… yet we have not established if these individuals are indeed lazy or seriously lacking in intellect.
Msg 36
You have engaged Logic.
Logic? No, not really.
Firstly, logical arguments do not rely on selectively ignoring salient points such as the context in which the exam was delivered, or that the student only offered alternatives, but no explanation as to why these alternatives were selected over the conventional method.
Secondly, although some leeway on misunderstanding can be given, to believe that the student in the story did not “contest the judgment” even though it is literally in the FIRST SENTENCE of the story, betrays a faulty foundation. Logic rarely arises from such weakness.
Thirdly, the hyperbole exhibited in the last passage clearly indicates a bias that seriously, if not irreparably hinders logic.
If one really intends to be logical, understand that the complexity of the answer is dependent on how the student perceives the question. If the student perceived it as the one of air pressure etc… he answers it that way. If the student perceived it to be more open-ended, then he must provide a solution commensurate to the task. How can one accept that the student selected the second and more complex option, but is worthy of “full marks” for an answer suited for less complexity?
.
.
.
Please reread the part about “context”. The simple approach would be to use the barometer as a barometer. Again, (yes again), if the student elects to introduce alternate methods (and that is an option), and by so doing, raise the expectations, then the onus is on him or her to demonstrate why his or her solutions are superior to the conventional. Also, one must remember that the constraints of “real life” may preclude other options. This has been explained.
The Collective only has to illuminate it for those who can see it (that includes all of Katharine and Isabel’s categories)
You have engage The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
(Lol. Get your own tagline)
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
32 (
view
)
The wrong answer
Posted: 1/17/2010 11:42:21 PM
The question facilitated a simpler path, or a more treacherous one. The choice was that of the student’s. Once the choice was made, the student fails his own challenge. The option to apply critical thinking was there in either case.
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Some Specific answers to Msg 28…
Msg 28
From what I remember from taking exams, the student would normally be marked down for not giving the expected answer. However, if he chose to contest the answer, he would get most of the marks for answering the question correctly.
Certainly… The expected solution is usually the most appropriate solution. This doesn’t mean other solutions are not evaluated, but in examination scenarios, there is rarely ambiguity as to what is the best one. Students have opportunity to contest the ranking of their own solution. It is this challenge that the “barometer student” failed.
Msg 28
In all the exams that I sat, we were marked for 2 things:
1) Getting a correct answer to the question.
2) Showing your working out, that your reasoning would allow you to arrive at the correct answer.
Yes. The correct answer (even a pure guess) was usually worth 50%. A wrong guess received a big fat ZERO. Showing your work, if meaningful, logical and complete, would earn 95% (even if the final result was omitted).
Msg 28
However, without appropriate figures, the student is not being asked to demonstrate his knowledge of the formula that calculates altitude from atmospheric pressure. So the student still does not demonstrate appropriate knowledge that is required in practical applications of his knowledge of atmospheric pressure.
Aside from the general range of values to be expected (of which the effectiveness of methods will have dependency), the actual data is moot. The exercise is all about how a barometer is to be employed to recover the height of a given object (likely in the general range of 200m-500m) In that sense, an understanding of how pressure is related to altitude, and how the given instrumentation can be used to leverage that (or other physical attributes) is being evaluated. This includes an understanding of the relative reliability and the effectiveness of any given approach (including melting down the barometer’s metal and turning it into a measuring chain).
Msg 28
The student is equally not being tested appropriately on his knowledge about barometers. In a real-life situation, a scientist will have many tools to hand. Only one will be a barometer. So there is no need to even use a barometer at all.
On the contrary, the student was absolutely being evaluated on basic familiarity with barometers (including sensitivity and calibration) and how they function. If one wants to introduce “real life”…In “real life” situations, the height of the skyscraper would likely already be known (unless it was built by some outfit that felt measuring tapes etc. were too “inside the box”.)
Of course, that isn’t the point. In “real life”, constraints are “real” and one may actually not be able to use the “most accurate” method. They may find themselves having to evaluate whether or not a barometer is an appropriate alternative to a solution.
Msg 28
Moreover, unless the barometer is incredibly accurate, the result will not be all that accurate. It's an inappropriate form of measurement for measuring the height of a building.
The barometer doesn’t have to be incredibly accurate. It only has to be accurate enough to yield more accuracy than that of other available solutions. When we factor in the cost (both in time and actual currency) of other solutions, one may find the barometric approach to not be that bad at all. H.G. Lucky already pointed out the flaws in one of the student’s solutions. We leave it as an exercise in “critical thinking” for all viewers to see the flaws in the others (or if other solutions may have yielded similar results.)
Incidentally, even a rather inexpensive barometric altimeter (hundreds of dollars) is probably accurate to a foot or two… the “drop the barometer and time it’s fall” solution given wouldn’t be remotely as accurate (or consistent in result)... and very costly on repeated measurement.
Msg 28
This question is really a test of the student's aptitude in being given a set of tools, and being expected to determine the height of a building, but only in the ways that his employer wants him to use. It's NOT a test of the student's ability in making scientific conclusions. It's a test of the student's ability to divine the intentions of his employer, and to follow those intentions.
The initial problem was strictly about the science behind the tool. It was a test on the student’s ability to make scientific conclusions in that scope.
The moment the student stepped beyond the usual boundary of “the box” he or she introduced more encompassing science as well as the “politics” (that would be the money, the boss, etc.)
On his/her own volition
, the test was now expanded to one of evaluating a larger realm of science, determining a cost effective method as well as selling that method to the client.
This is where the failure occurred.
Because the student was unable to demonstrate how and why his/her solutions were chosen over the “text book” solution, no passing grade can be granted.
Msg 28
It's intended to test students, if they will be able to cope with supervisors who will delegate particular responsibilities to students, but who are NOT clear about their intentions, if those students can divine their intentions, without having to actually ask for clarity.
The problem was intended to only examine the students understanding of the relationship between pressure and altitude as it pertains to the typical conditions near the ground. As instruments or tools are generally designed for a specialized purpose, the likelihood of the tool being well suited for other applications is unlikely. One may choose to use a textbook as a plumb bob… but used as a textbook when a text book is part of a competing solution is the prudent option.
Yet the student, likely due to contempt, decided to challenge the question…
If one is bold enough to raise the stakes, they must equally raise their game… or fail.
As far as testing the ability to cope with unclear direction, the higher educational experience itself provides such a dilemma. The educational path is the choice of the student (well at least in the free world). Coping with vagueness and conflicting data is what living in the “real world” teaches all humans (aside from those living extremely sheltered lives.)
Msg 28
However, in reality, there is no right way. No supervisor hands you a barometer and asks you to find out the height of a building. You will be given access to a variety of tools, and then you will be expected to follow the methods you have been taught by your supervisor. However, if you have an equally accurate way, a good supervisor does not care how you achieved the result. He just wants to know it's accurate, and done in the quickest and cheapest way.
Nope. This is really just a deflection. To examine particular abilities, examinations are necessarily in controlled conditions. One isolates interference to examine particular attributes. Incidentally, if the test was designed as a “real life” test from the outset, it would have all the vagueness and contradiction that comes with “real life”. If one is arguing that this test should have been closer to a real life test, the more controlled test still has to be completed before such an in-situ test is undertaken. No live ammo until the student can demonstrate he or she will not end up shooting his own foot, team mate, instructor, lunchbox, etc…
Even “access to a variety of tools” may be constrained by availability of such tools in “real life”. Also the in-situ scenario may preclude the use of all manner of other options save that of a handy barometer. The test, at its elemental level, has a limited family of “right” solutions. Once the student decides to lift the constraints, more members are introduced, but they each still have a rank order.
Msg 28
If you have a supervisor who expects you to do things in a certain way, and isn't clear about that, then you have a bad supervisor. He will then be just as inclined to hand you a barometer, but expect you to use a laser sighting tool to take measurements, and will then find he doesn't get what he wanted anyway.
Not necessarily. The constraint of time or resources (there’s that “real life” creeping in again) often precludes overseers from sharing reasons on why engagement rules are in place. Project complexity may also be a factor. Not having shared such details does not make a supervisor “bad.” The details may also be available if one is willing to do their own research.
There will be instances where a barometer is the optimal solution. Laser sighting, active radar, optical or mechanical methods may all be precluded by environmental or engagement conditions. Again, there’s that “real life” creeping in.
Msg 28
So this method of teaching is just going to encourage students to make unconfirmed assumptions about the needs of their supervisors.
Nope. If the examination is to be treated at that level of “reality”, the contrary is true. In “real life” access to executive reasoning is, more often than not, limited. Having to “decide the best fit” with minimal instruction and data is a useful skill. Hence encouraging students to successfully “read between the lines” and knowing when and what to ask or answer, is essentially encouraging “critical thinking.” CoolNomad gets it.
Msg 28
That will equally encourage lazy supervisors, who are not clear about their intentions, to become even more lazy. As a result, they will become even more unclear. That will result in serious errors. Errors like these cost lives. They are to be avoided.
We do not doubt that in “real life”, some supervisors will use opportunities to be vague to feed personal lethargy. However, this has a tenuous connection to the student’s ability to ascertain what is critical to the problem at hand.
At the very least, the prime directive of the student is to pass the examination. Once that is achieved, he or she may elect to point out alleged flaws in the examination (be it to “educate” the educator or just to feel superior,) the environmental unfriendliness of the paper used, the font size, the venue, etc. However, if one’s solution neither accomplishes the main goal nor the secondary one, the outcome is pure failure.
Similarly, a subordinate’s primary role is to carry out orders. There does exist an objective to improve the performance of supervisors, the overall organization’s success, as well as “save lives” if jeopardy is detected. However, unless the subordinate can clearly justify his or her action to forgo the expected solution, such actions are purely that of insubordination (and that rarely goes unpunished.)
The fictional student never justified his or her departure from the conventional. Therefore, the student fails.
Msg 28
IMHO, this student was correct in answering in an unexpected way, as it highlights a serious flaw in the question.
Are we to also specify that the building is on Earth? Please.
There is only as much a “serious flaw” in the question as the questioned chose to see.
Context is critical to understanding.
To expect portable, exact and unambiguous detail beyond the situation is literally asking to be “spoon fed”. The framework (that of a physic’s exam and a question involving a barometer,) surrounding the question was adequate to determine intent. It would be like handing a Patrolman a long expired driver’s license in lieu of the current one when asked for “Driver’s license please”. “But Officer, you never specified my CURRENT license.” Just how much latitude will one expect there?
Certainly the student can choose to see the question as “determine the relative cost-benefit of using a barometer to measure the height of a tall building.” As explained, expanding the question to this level requires a solution of more than just suggesting an alternative path. One must now explain WHY the path was chosen over the conventional one. If not, one has not accomplished the task he or she has given themselves.
If anything, the question, as posed, is valid on multiple levels and the story highlights the folly of underestimating the level of battle one has chosen.
This is true for the fictional student, the guy who is now wondering why he is now undergoing a 3 hour vehicle search, and those who still believe that the conventional answer precludes critical thinking.
Msg 28
That would hopefully highlight a flaw in the proper planning of the examiner who drew up the exam, and cause him to be scrutinised, to draw up more accurate exam questions in the future.
Exam questions, even if not originally well planned, evolve to be so after a couple of iterations.
There is nothing in the story that would indicate improper planning on the part of the examiner. It was appropriately worded within the context of the test. “Cute” answers like these are seen more often than one thinks. If the answer included detail and analyses commensurate to the challenge, full marks are awarded. If the alternate answer is not accompanied by reasoning as to why it was chosen over others, then it is deemed unsupported. Should that answer not be as reasonable as the conventional solution, it gets that “big fat ZERO”.
Once more, this is why the fictional student fails.
Msg 28
If this scrutiny does not happen, then lazy, unclear supervisors get more lazy, and more unclear, and then errors are made, and lives are lost as a result. This is something we want to avoid.
“Real life” impresses upon us that even a well-planned specification can contain ambiguity, incomplete direction or conflicting direction. Critical thinking skills will help a subordinate determine what needs to be clarified and what is implied. Knowledge of scope may aid in ascertaining what and why (or why not) certain constraints exist.
There are many factors to consider in determining whether or not a supervisor will fall into the spiral of becoming lazier and lazier. There are many “political” reasons as to why incompetence persists, but these things are wholly beyond a discussion around the failure of the “barometer student.” Introducing the objective to “teach” the system is only avoiding answering the question in the first place.
If the student successfully answered the question first, he or she may be entertained in that regard. However, failing the question in its most basic form, is failing the prerequisite to an audience on a higher level.
Trite responses to exam questions that betray more about a contemptuous attitude will jeopardize project performance more than having to deal with specifications that require clarity. Think about it. A lazy buffoon of a supervisor is far easier to manipulate than a sub or co-worker that always thinks they know better than you (yet is not introspective enough to realize that it is not so.)
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The question facilitated a simpler path, or a more treacherous one. The choice was that of the student’s. Once the choice was made, the student fails his own challenge. The option to apply critical thinking was there in either case.
You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
B0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
22 (
view
)
The wrong answer
Posted: 1/16/2010 2:31:00 PM
The student did not adequately think through the solutions. He or she fails because of that (and not because of the “obvious” reason).
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Some Specific Answers…
Msg 23
If this is true then the education system fails. The exam question should have then said something like "what is the conventional way..." then.
Lol. This is why those who believe that the student actually applied adequate critical thinking do not appreciate how and why the “solutions” were unworthy.
The exam question didn’t ask for the conventional way, nor was it implied in any way that the “conventional” way is the only way. However, if we were to allow all possible solutions (including ones that do not demonstrate knowledge of physics and what solutions are most reasonable) then ANY solution would be allowed. That would include waiting for the answer to fall out of the sky because a butterfly flapped its wings 3,000 km away.
Now… one more try at it… why did the student fail?
The education system does not fail because the student was originally failed, and the mythology does not support such a claim. The “system” provides a more focused environment to both impart learning skills as well as allow one’s “critical thinking” to develop. (Note that The Collective has neither said nor eluded that “critical thinking” is innate or not.)
Msg 23
Furthermore how does one know what Niels Bohr would do? Did he say that himself?
RoFl. That’s pretty weak.
It is reasonable to suggest that a person gifted enough to be eventually recognized by a coveted award would not have been foolish enough to make the mistakes that the fictitious student did. Such an argument is merely a plea to ignorance at best. This would be equivalent to exonerating the student because we can’t assume that he could read or understand spoken words. Please.
Msg 23
There's more than one way to skin a cat.
That is merely stating the obvious (and does not critical thinking involving seeing beyond “the obvious?”) We are all aware of that.
Msg 23
There's more than one way to critically think.
Really? Technically, you are either critically thinking or you are not. There’s really on “one way” to have critically thought. There are successful and unsuccessful outcomes, sufficient or insufficient application, but the act of thinking critical either happens or it doesn’t. As far as applying enough critical thinking… well that is difference between pass and fail.
Msg 23
I had a friend who stated that 'cheating' was just another way of using critical thinking. If the end goal is achievable then by whatever means achieve it.
The fictitious student fails mainly because he or she could not see beyond this stage. Think about it (critically, of course.)
Msg 23
Where the 'system' fails is in its elitism. The system looks for a certain individual that thinks a certain way. The system also tries to force certain persons to think like the person who excels within the system. Obviously at the detriment of minds not geared towards thinking in the way the system demands one to think.
Nope.
The problem presented to the student does not limit him or her to merely re-iterating the common approach.
If one truly applies critical thinking, as H.G. Lucky did, they would understand why the student should receive a failing grade.
Many immediately assume that those who deem the student a failure are “only denying the student’s creative approach or approaches”. They are wrong. See the problem and the solutions the student presented and understand why his actions are telling of insufficient critical thinking.
If the student had truly demonstrated commendable critical thinking, then full marks would have been awarded.
Msg 23
The result is a pedagogy that stifles creativity largely for a constrained version of 'critical thinking'. To that I say consider Richard Feynman:
Sadly, the result is often disappointment when students cannot rise to the occasion, and instead, blame the system.
The fictional student was given a second chance to demonstrate sufficient critical thinking, and still did not make the grade (Once again, tear away from the “obvious” and discover why the student is a failure.)
Msg 23
Please note 're-creating' and 'utilizing his own notation'. Isn't this similar to the young man in quietjohn's story who wished to deliver more colorful answers. For didn't the young man come up with different and applicable ways of answering the exam question?
Feynman would likely fail the student too (and The B0rg doesn’t have to have actual quotes from him either.)
Think of the difference between the two scenarios (and not the obvious again.) This is not denigration. It is a chance to re-examine the situation.
Msg 23
As a former student there is more motivation to… …our creativity!
The opportunities to “think outside the box” exist. It even existed in that piece of fiction. If students only see the experience as “spoon feed and spoon back”, perhaps there was not enough critical thinking applied.
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The student did not adequately think through the solutions. He or she fails because of that (and not because of the “obvious” reason).
You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
19 (
view
)
The wrong answer
Posted: 1/16/2010 10:11:10 AM
H. G. Lucky (Message 9) is absolutely on the mark. This urban myth is constructed only to perpetuate the false notion that Academia is lacking in “critical thinking”.
The irony is that the story itself actually demonstrates how the student
lacks
a lot of “critical thinking” in his/her haste to best “the system”. (H.G. Lucky (Messages 9 and 12) has touched upon a few of the oversights on the fictitious student’s part.) If anything the student showed how little he/she understood about the physical world and how to apply the knowledge of physics. The student’s answers are not worth even a passing grade (let alone full marks.)
Niels Bohr would not have submitted solutions so problematic (which is further proof of the contrived nature of this tale.)
You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
518 (
view
)
Why won't Women Date Nice Romantic Overweight Gentlemen
Posted: 1/2/2010 4:33:28 PM
"because I prefer nice romantic healthy gentlemen"
Better yet... one's with "voodooed" weenies!
B0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
168 (
view
)
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/4/2009 11:09:21 PM
StarG…
Lol. Right on!
Sailor…
Come on. What did we say? Some will pretend they were not debunked AGAIN… It’s getting too easy to demonstrate this. In fact, we will likely only have to refer you back to this post in the future. Just answer the question,
Tell us all why contradictory observation isn’t enough to discount Shaviv’s hypothesis.
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The details…
Msg 155
I’d say that the B.S. is really getting higher on this thread.
I'd agree...however, the source is up for debate.
Lol!!!. Right on, StarG! It’s currently piled 69 inches high but holding steady (must be some kind of anthropogenic forcing.) Fortunately The Collective tubes filter such malodorous posts.
False accusations along with low brow insults… reactions like these are evidence that some have no legitimate rebuttal and are a testimony to the integrity of the those they attempt to disparage.
Resistance is truly futile.
Msg 156
So where is the actual refuting? At no time did I claim uniform distribution of gasses in the atmosphere but you claim I did. I simply claimed at the surface, the absorption is near 100% within a few hundred feet. How is an explanation of the science propaganda?
RoFl. Nice try.
Practically anyone in the audience sees the back-pedaling in that. Since you ask, we will explain it to you once more:
You
consistently
ignore the fact that the atmosphere has a pressure temperature gradient by conveniently mentioning
only
the incidental that saturation of absorption occurs near the surface. Your implication has been that adding more CO2 will not make a difference (all viewers can find that in the links provided in that post.) Your intent is quite clear. No amount of coy, “that’s not what I meant” is going to take that away. You
simply
base your whole “The Greenhouse Gas Effect is flawed” theory on that false premise.
As far as propaganda… Its equivalent to posting “only 3 grams of fat per serving” while neglecting to mention that a serving is 3.5 grams. There’s “explaining”, and then there is “deception.”
Propaganda falls in the latter as it is all about ignoring the important facts, and focusing on pointless factoids and how they relate to the situation. THAT is how it is propaganda.
As someone experience in airborne FLIR technology, we are pretty sure you have come across the
adiabatic lapse rate
. You know, the one that is typically 6 deg C per Km? Remember?
Essentially, the greenhouse gas effect raises the effective radiation altitude to about, oh around 3 km. Adding more GHG would raise that effective radiation altitude. If the atmosphere was isobaric (this is the “coats of paint” fallacy) the rise in effective altitude wouldn’t matter as the temperature radiated at 0 km or 3 km would be the same (don’t be taking any of this out of context now in an attempt to rebut…).
There is the “refuting” once more. The “coats of paint” deception is debunked.
Any more specious denials?
Msg 156
One very close analogy is to refer to the bands as colors in a similar fashion to visible light split through a prism. That is where an analogy of paint colors comes from. Repetitious claims referring to yet more repetitious claims of some phantom refutation still doesn’t refute anything.
Lol. This is just trying to cover-up by trying to redefine what you meant by “coats of paint”. There are clear reference links to just exactly what you mean in msg 231 of:
http://forums.plentyoffish.com/10593991datingPostpage10.aspx
The whole point you’ve always been making is that additional CO2 is ineffective since only the first couple of hundred feet of it matters (yes, what you are saying.) Whether it absorbs 1% or 100% of the outgoing spectrum is not the issue (and
no one
has been implying that it absorbs anything outside of its bands).
The salient truth is that you are speciously over-simplifying the mechanism.
You maintain that more CO2 can’t make any more difference as in “more red paint won’t make a painted surface and redder”. (There, is THAT succinct enough for you?) In essence the “coats of paint” analogy DOES NOT address the most relevant nature of the GHG effect. It is speciously misleading and repeating over and over again after direct refutation is only proving one has absolutely no foundation.
Pretending that you haven’t been refuted again, isn’t removing the fact that your contrarian reasoning has been debunked in the past and in the present.
Msg 156
How do you explain how a specific wavelength of IR can be absorbed by a substance that simply cannot absorb that wavelength?
Lol. This old straw man again?
Considering that practically
no one
who has been discussing this topic, and especially not The B0rg, has been saying that CO2 (the “substance” that you are implying so don’t say that you “never said CO2” now) absorbs energy outside of its absorption ranges, why would anyone have to answer that?
You are merely misrepresenting the position of an opponent in order to decry it: The classic straw man argument.
Msg 156
Its like painting a red car red over and over. It's still red. More red paint does not change that.
Can one still
pretend
that they aren’t emphasizing the wrong points on purpose? Re-read the part about
adiabatic lapse rate
.
Msg 156
There is very little solar heating in the polar regions to heat the ice and most of that is reflected by the ice unless there is something to make the ice darker, say volcanic dust. It should be clear I am not a drone that accepts some collective consensus but I actually think for myself and try to understand the physics. After all this time, I am still awaiting explanations.
Not a drone? Implying that one’s opponent doesn’t think for themselves?… Lol. Couldn’t resist the irrelevant denigration, huh?
Fantastic! That is another testimony to the resilience of The Collective’s argument.
(As the insulter is betraying a self-realized unsupportable position by resorting to irrelevant name calling and denigration.)
Direct heating from solar radiation is the
only
mechanism that can cause ice in the polar regions to change phase? There are no long days with more direct sunlight above the Arctic Circle, or below the Antarctic Circle over the course of an Earth year? We, and everyone else are awaiting explanation… still.
Msg 156
The real green house effect is primarily clouds reflecting radiated IR. Since the earth is traveling in a vacuum, the only cooling mechanism it has is radiation. The wavelength of the IR being radiated is determined by the chemical bonds of the substances involved. For earth, that is mostly water. Convection heating of the atmosphere would require that the gasses of the atmosphere be able to radiate in long wave IR to effect any cooling. CO2 can radiate heat from the earth’s atmosphere into space as can water vapor and clouds. In short, the real heat retainer is clouds just as it is on Venus.
Has anyone stated or implied that the Earth transfers energy back out to space by any other mechanism other than radiation? Come on. That’s just another disguised straw man. We do beam energy from your planet to run our air-conditioning aboard the Cube via some proprietary B0rgian technology but it’s insignificant (really, it is.)
Venus? Incidentally, the Greenhouse Gas Effect model calculates the surface temperature of Venus pretty accurately. It calculates Martian surface temperatures accurately too. It
must
just be all a “coincidence.”
Msg 156
Labeling me a denialist is an inaccurate simplification implying I favor unrestrained squandering on fossil fuels.
Nope. You are being addressed as a denier because of behaviour very clearly indicative of the denial camp. This includes the consistent repetition of, but is not exclusive to:
… The “CO2 is not a pollutant” strawman
… The “Greenhouse Gas Effect is not same as a garden greenhouse” semantic argument
… The “Bash Gore as if he claims he is a scientist” ad hominem
… The “take words and phrases out of context” strawman
… The “CO2 was far more abundant in the past” deflection
… The “deflect into politics” tactic
… The “atmosphere is saturated in the first 300 feet” deflection
…
The “I haven’t been refuted” lie.
Inaccurate simplification? Nope. Unlike “coats of paint” (red or any other colour), it’s quite a precise and comprehensive (Go ahead, try and deny that there is no evidence of one doing all of the above.)
Deniers have a habit of dodging when asked to answer direct questions.
What they tend to do is to jump from one deflection to another whenever they are asked to explain their position. We will let the audience decide when and where that happens. We see it here since one has deflected away from…
Tell us all why contradictory observation isn’t enough to discount Shaviv’s hypothesis.
The Collective is very clear and direct to the point. If we wished to accuse you of supporting unrestrained squandering of fossil fuels, we would have said, “You are a supporter of unrestrained squandering of fossil fuels”.
At any rate, whether one is motivated by EXXON dollars, or by a need to seek revenge on not being treated with elevated reverence they feel they deserve, or by whatever is not the topic. The answer we seek still is ON TOPIC and is…
Tell us all why contradictory observation isn’t enough to discount Shaviv’s hypothesis.
(We only discuss these other things because one has specifically challenged us with false claims that they have not been promoting misconceptions.)
Msg 156
My concern is how the record of environmental destruction so far in the name of reducing CO2 does not bode well for the even more destructive initiatives on the table. The poor science behind the AGW theory goes hand in hand with the poorly though out schemes to fix the problem. The immense profits to be gained by those who are nothing more than non-productive parasites allude to less that honest motives.
This is disingenuous at best (see how clearly The Collective states comments?) You may well have that concern, but that is not the issue here. This is about climate science and not mitigation strategies. Coming here to post up the same old misinformation year after year isn’t about whether you have concern for the environment or not. When people do that, they are only promoting dissent regarding the science. When the “reasons” behind the contrary views are shown to be false yet the misinformation continues, it is proof of an agenda to promote dispute where there isn’t any.
Poor science? ROFL! Everybody is welcome to an opinion.
Msg 156
In general, more CO2 will promote more plant growth in a self regulating negative feedback reducing the pressure to destroy more rain forests. The CO2 will also help the rain forests survive all the other crap we subject them to as well as reduce the land needed to grow food. In reality, the fossil fuels are biofuels. Wind turbines are a threat to migratory birds and likely a threat to climate that farming depends on. Ethanol directly competes with food production and creates pressure to use energy optimal crops resulting in massive sea life destruction from the algae blooms. PV cells at first seem like a good idea until one compares the energy they produce with the energy needed to make and deploy them. All these fixes are good in moderation and have their place but the Inconvenient Truth is that the AGW movement is not about moderation but profit and power of the few over the many. Nothing epitomizes the hypocrisy more than soon to be billion air Al Gore flying around in a private jet raking in millions from AGW fear mongering.
Hmm… a new theory… rapid CO2 rise will promote a self regulating negative feedback… OK. Open up a new thread on that and I am sure gentleman human’s like WVWaterfall or Froggy would be happy to discuss that with you.
Of course,
the topic here is CRF and its contribution to the mean global temperature.
It’s not about the politics or the efficacy of mitigation schemes. Speaking of which, you have again deflected away from answering the question:
Tell us all why contradictory observation isn’t enough to discount Shaviv’s hypothesis.
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StarG…
Lol. Right on!
Sailor…
Come on. What did we say? Some will pretend they were not debunked AGAIN… It’s getting too easy to demonstrate this. In fact, we will likely only have to refer you back to this post in the future. Just answer the question,
Tell us all why contradictory observation isn’t enough to discount Shaviv’s hypothesis.
.
You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
153 (
view
)
MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 11/2/2009 11:18:06 PM
Nova… We agree, Shaviv’s work is bona fide. It’s just that his hypothesis is not supported by subsequent study.
StarG… Bang on (as usual).
Sailor… Challenge us and you have now received.
Don’t think so? The propaganda is so predictably repetitious that the rebuttal(s) is(are) as easy as referencing a previous post from months ago! Check out The Collective’s message 231 of:
http://forums.plentyoffish.com/10593991datingPostpage10.aspx
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In detail…
Msg 140
So, it will be interesting to see whether a causative relationship does exist. Time will tell I suppose.
Yes. But in the meantime, the measurements that caused Shaviv to suggest the “lag time” mitigation are not promising. Longer term datasets may shed more light on the situation, but the order of magnitude of CRF forcing isn’t being supported.
Msg 140
I would never compare this science with that of the 2012 crowd, however. It's one thing to say the science is dodgy, but to compare the hypothesis of a legitimate academic with a fear-mongoring pseudoscience is more than unfair.
The 2012 crowd are in class of their own. The relationship between CRF and mean global temperature being the level that Shaviv claims is dodgy. His scientific approach and practice is not in the least bit flaky. His hypothesis is sensible as a hypothesis (something that can’t be said of Mayan calendar promoters). It is just that it is not supported by subsequent observation.
Shaviv’s work isn’t pseudoscience. However, pseudoscience promoters tend to cling to anything that can be construed as support and cause that support to viewed that way.
Msg 140
In any case, I don't agree with the concept of the op; climate is such a complex system. There's no reason to think there can't be a large number of factors that enter into the equation.
There definitely are a plethora of contributors to the climate of Earth. Events like ice-dam ruptures and large forest fires are extraordinarily rapid variable changes. Humans are finding out that the rate at which they have re-introduced CO2 into the atmosphere is also a rapid variable change as far as the reaction from damping systems. One may not need to be aware of all the variables of a system to know that alterations of a single one will cause notable instability. Perhaps the instability will not be as marked as say a collision with a large object, but it is proving to be something not to be ignored.
Yes. The model should undergo more refinement. However, if one knows a column supporting a structure is weakened, it is prudent to reinforce or repair it (if possible). One may look for other problem areas, but fix what you know first. Deniers love to say, don’t fix ANYTHING until you inspect every last brick (since maybe it’s just all coincidence that the building is slowly tipping to the side). The wiser tenant knows better.
The biosphere is conditioned to react to the more docile dynamics of that system. When that system undergoes extraordinary perturbation, it will undergo some extraordinary reactions.
These reactions have no cognition or consideration for the biosphere.
Msg 140
It seems that we're finally getting past the idea that the science is settled and we're continuing to learn more. Not a bad thing, for sure.
We certainly agree that the pursuit of knowledge is a good thing. However, the whole “science is settled” thing is really an intentionally misleading construct of the contrarians. Don’t buy into what they say climate scientists are saying.
Climate science is still dynamic (as every climate scientist demands it to be.)
There is a clear distinction between realizing that there is enough evidence in support of a hypothesis, and whether a claim has been made that a model has been designed to a perfectionist’s requirements. Climate scientists are satisfied that the rise in atmospheric CO2 has caused notable reaction in the Earth’s climate system. They have never said or implied that “the science is settled” (as in “that’s all, it’s a wrap, let’s go grab a beer, our work is done.”)
Whether or not the artificial acceleration of CO2 release has caused a plastic shift to the climate damper process, and whether or not that shift will have notable negative effects on the biosphere is a real concern.
Unlike a lot of the junk we see, work like Shaviv’s and some of the other things you have brought up are interesting and help prove the discipline of science.
Msg 150
Oh, and I'd say flyguy did a fine job with the whole "greenhouse" thing.
Right on, Star-G. The Flyguy was on the money.
Msg 142
The new scientific terms:
repetitious tripe… ..argumentum ad nauseam… …sketchy (or dodgy)… sensationalist… ..bravado
LoL. Was that deliberately OUT-OF-CONTEXT or what??? Ironic justice only works when the quotes are actually appropriately in context. This attempt was ineffective cherry-picked nonsense.
We politely asked all to refrain from
using yet another thread as a personal grandstand for preaching debunked “theories” and political diatribes.
Challenging The B0rg to provide evidence? Here you go…
”Resistance is Futile”
Yep. It’s all the same old debunked junk presented ad nauseam:
… The “CO2 is not a pollutant” strawman; Check
… The “Greenhouse Gas Effect is not same as a garden greenhouse” semantic argument; Check
… The “Bash Gore as if he claims he is a scientist” ad hominem; Check
… The “rebut by taking words and phrases out of context” tactic; Check
… The “CO2 was far more abundant in the past” deflection; Check
… The “deflect into politics” tactic; Check
… The “atmosphere is saturated at the surface” deflection; Check
There are many more, but the best one is…
… The “I haven’t been refuted” lie.
Don’t think so? The propaganda is so predictably repetitious that the rebuttal(s) is(are) as easy as referencing a previous post from months ago. Check out The Collective’s message 231 of:
http://forums.plentyoffish.com/10593991datingPostpage10.aspx
Note that just about EVERY fallacy posted here “supporting” the counter-AGW stance and many more have been posted up in the past AND subsequently directly refuted with careful explanation.
Of course the best part is how, some immediately pretend that they were not refuted (see message 234 on the same thread):
Claiming to have "debunked" by repetition of the claim is not refutation.
ROFLMAO.,, and we are sure we all be hearing this false claim again shortly. Please!
Stick to the topic (yes… and we have only gone off-topic in order to demonstrate against the transgression so don’t even try the “hypocrisy” angle.) If one feels there IS a link between CRF and mean global temperature in the order of magnitude that Shaviv’s paper suggests even when subsequent measurements are not showing this relationship, provide some support.
No diversions into intricacies of cloud formation, politics, specious misinformation about the use of the word “greenhouse”, “CO2 is our friend”, forgetting to mention that the Gulf of Mexico dead zone has been around long before Ethanol mandates, etc… to deflect from an inability to explain why contradictory observation isn’t falsifying the hypothesis now.
Tell us all why contradictory observation isn’t enough to discount Shaviv’s hypothesis.
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Nova… We agree, Shaviv’s work is bona fide. It’s just that his hypothesis is not supported by subsequent study.
StarG… Bang on (as usual).
Sailor … Challenge us and you have now received.
Don’t think so? The propaganda is so predictably repetitious that the rebuttal(s) is(are) as easy as referencing a previous post from months ago! Check out The Collective’s message 231 of:
http://forums.plentyoffish.com/10593991datingPostpage10.aspx
You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
(But still, rather entertaining to watch.)
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
134 (
view
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MIGHT solarcycle24 dispel manmade global warming?
Posted: 10/31/2009 8:33:57 PM
Msg 97
Thought I would revive this thread, since another on global warming has limits to the number of posts we are allowed to make.
Yes. Nova. Those other threads became rife with the same old posters posting up the same old junk (all the while pretending they have not been refuted.) It is no wonder that the mods elected to limit the posts. Chances are, most people interested in these topics will be familiar with what posts are just repetitious tripe (as we see even this one is starting get the same way.) We, The Collective can easily supply a link to a thread that proves it is all argumentum ad nauseam (should some challenge us on this instead of sticking to the topic.)
Msg 97
I've found a couple of interesting articles recently on global warming, from opposing camps;
First, I've become a fan of Nir Shaviv, who inadvertently entered the AGW sceptics' camp when he discovered the effect of solar winds on clouds and therefore on global temperatures. Here's a great article on his story:
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1063707.html
If you are talking about his article, http://www.phys.huji.ac.il/~shaviv/articles/PRLice.pdf it IS a very interesting read. There is a correlation between your Sun’s transit through the density waves and Ice Ages. However, the link to Cosmic Ray Flux is still tenuous (one could say a “coincidence”). Shaviv’s work is pretty thorough, and contrary to what most deniers want to believe (and as you have probably noticed) he doesn’t deny the appreciable contribution of GHG to the departure since heavy industrialization.
Recent studies have made the connection between Cosmic Rays and mean global temperature sketchy (or dodgy) at best. Even with “lag time”, the findings make the CRF (that’s Cosmic Ray Flux for those that haven’t read the article) an unlikely driver.
This still doesn’t detract from Shaviv’s discovery that there is a link between Sol’s position relative to the density waves. There is definitely a relationship. Whether the relationship is really due to say comet activity, cosmic rays, dust particles, dark matter, etc… is not determined. Many things are perturbed by density waves. However, there is a smoking gun there.
As you note, the period of perturbation by this intra-galactic positioning is on a scale far beyond the current GHG forcing. If not for the recent studies in Cosmic Ray Flux these rays could have been as he suggests. Hence the 30-70 split between GHG and CRF could be possible. However, the recent studies are less encouraging.
The problem with Shaviv lately is in his sensationalist statements in the article you noted. We have no doubts that it’s a combination of bravado, and a realization that it is a good way to earn some publicity (and potentially some extra income for movie rights etc.) His work is real, but the connection to climate change via CRF is not panning out.
Msg 97
The other is by a group of scientists who have found an arctic sediment core that they think shows that humans have had an effect on global temperature
http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1771883/arctic_lake_sediments_show
_warming_unique_ecological_changes/index.html
Haven’t had a chance to read this in detail, but we do remember seeing it online. It’s Halloween. The queen summons. Will check on this article later.
You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
327 (
view
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Credibility of, re. The Science of GW
Posted: 2/4/2009 10:44:54 AM
Lucky you weren’t walking on the street at the time.
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Some specific answers…
Hi Nova,
Msg 334…
Borg: maybe my internal clock is off, but here is an event to place my trip for you: If you live in Vancouver you might remember the blackout that occurred that shut down several downtown blocks for a couple days? I was lucky enough to be in a hotel about 3 buildings down from the underground fire responsible for the blackout. Anyway, that's when I was in BC and the cabbie made the comment to me about the carbon tax. Maybe it was in May or June 2008. I've made a few trips in the last couple years, so I might have been confused. So was the cabbie looking for a large tip? Perhaps....that certainly would not surprise me.
The Event you speak of occurred on Monday, July 14, 2008. Operatives closer to Vancouver, BC have provided this link…
http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20080714/BC_downtown_vancouver_080714?hub=BritishColumbiaHome
This places you temporally after the introduction of the BC Carbon tax, but at 2.4 cents a litre the cabbie was “losing” a maximum of 3 or 4 dollars a day (although he or she wasn’t REALLY losing it either when one considers the savings he or she will gain from the concurrent tax reduction). There is also legislation that will require all new cabs entering fleets to be energy-efficient types (as if higher fuel costs if one doesn’t isn’t incentive enough). The cabbie was shilling for sure.
So far, the BC government has actually kept this a revenue-neutral policy (something that doesn’t seem to happen a lot).
Msg 334…
Anyway, a carbon tax to reduce consumption is one thing, but the real problems arise when companies who pollute buy carbon credits from countries where old-growth forest is cleared and crops are planted (you can buy credits from said countries to plant trees, but obviously removing the old growth is the bigger atrocity). I'm not sure how much that happens, but I have heard of it.
These indiscretions did indeed happen in the early 2000’s and such is the folly of allowing “old boys” clubs to act with impunity. That is the very same politics at work that spawn the doubt where there really isn’t any. Fortunately there is hope if humanity stands up “collectively” and says they have had enough of bullying from them.
More recent studies may help this along…
http://www.pacificforest.org/publications/pubpdfs/ForestCarbonReport-07Update.pdf
Your assessment that controlling demand via the management of population is on the mark. One of the methods humans can maintain and increase overall quality of life is by the careful meting of this aspect. The challenge is to effectively implement this in the areas where it is required without being accused of artificially reining the growth of these collective entities for “political” reasons.
The abuses of mitigation strategies (real or projected) are more indication that corporate entities need to be policed far more rigorously than they have been in the past. As in any arena (the global economy, federal government, local strata council, these forums, etc…), abusers are usually few but cause a disproportionate amount of trouble. Once these entities are dealt with, progress can happen that much more quickly and efficiently.
Let’s get back to the science…
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Lucky you weren’t walking on the street at the time.
You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
B0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
319 (
view
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Credibility of, re. The Science of GW
Posted: 2/2/2009 1:03:36 PM
When it comes to taxation, cabbies may not be the best authority. It’s hard to blame a tax for a net loss, when that tax wasn’t even levied yet and even at this time, is revenue neutral.
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Some specific answers…
Msg 323…
I was in BC about a year ago and a taxi driver was complaining about the carbon tax people were paying on gasoline. It was driving up his costs and he was losing money.
Hi Nova,
That cabbie wasn’t being entirely upfront about the situation. About a year ago would be at the latest, last spring (say April or May of 2008).
In British Columbia, not a single penny of carbon tax was collected until the first of July last year.
How it was driving up his costs is beyond explanation unless his taxi was a stainless steel Delorean with a Flux capacitor. It sounds more like he was shilling for a bigger tip.
As far as losing money, it should be noted that in the first year of this tax there is only a 2.4 cent per litre levy applied (note that weekly, the price at the pump rises and falls 10 cents a litre on some other “cycles” in the price strategy too). This tax is also intended to be revenue-neutral, and a one percent tax cut for small business came into effect on the same day. Each taxpayer, regardless of whether they operate a motor vehicle also received a $100 cheque from the Provincial government in June. Here’s a little more clarity on the BC carbon tax:
http://www.ey.com/Global/assets.nsf/Canada/Tax_Alert_2008_No_10/$file/TaxAlert2008No10.pdf
Certainly, governments have been known to leverage “revenue-neutral” into something a little more lucrative, but that is politics, and
unless even ONE of these conspiracy theorists can come up with a little evidence of collusion by climate science to deceive the public (AND that such deception is funded by “the government”), it is not even relevant.
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When it comes to taxation, cabbies may not be the best authority. It’s hard to blame a tax for a net loss, when that tax wasn’t even levied yet and even at this time, is revenue neutral.
You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
290 (
view
)
Climate Change is the topic
Posted: 1/27/2009 11:18:54 PM
LoL. False accusation, ad hominem attack and deflections is all one gets once the fallacies in denial claims are pointed out (yet again).
Don’t think so? Have a look at these two threads to see if this assertion, that some just post up the SAME debunked fallacies over and over again, isn’t accurate for “coats of paint” or “back in the Jurassic days”, etc…
http://forums.plentyoffish.com/datingPosts10593991.aspx
http://forums.plentyoffish.com/datingPosts9117203.aspx
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Some specific answers…
What some speciously misrepresent in order to justify a false accusation of hypocrisy…
Msg 278…
we actively avoid passing judgment
Yet we have these snippets:
Purely an obfuscation........counterfeit dénouement........repeat the same fallacies
What The Collective actually said IN CONTEXT…
“…Contrary to what some falsely accuse, we actively avoid passing judgment
and we do not coerce the occasionally NECESSARY one upon others
…”
LoL. What this demonstrates is the “quoting out of context” that deniers resort to when desperately trying to find fault in their opposition (when they cannot find fault in the argument).
Furthermore, if one were restricted to not even qualifying supposition, it would severely curtail expression of opinion. In this way we show how deniers actually attempt to silence those that point out their errors. Weak and too easy to counter (yes, that would be a judgment based on how The Collective found this rebuttal. RoFl).
What some attempt to identify as “name calling”…
Msg 278…
In other forms of internet bullying:
many will resort to name-calling and ridiculing the critic.
And here we go:
These detractors ........not unlike how some deniers
…isn’t the “name-calling” of the particularly adolescent type of jeering that indicates a self-realized losing position.
Nope. It has been explained on numerous occasions that “name calling” has to do with irrelevant and irreverent monikers (you know, like calling someone, “trekie” which has NOTHING to do with the discussion). In distinction from this, the descriptors of detractor and denier are apt in that it is the very behaviour demonstrated by some ON THIS TOPIC. We are sure one is only being insincerely unaware of this distinction (Yep. That’s a necessary qualification as opposed to denigration on someone’s member name).
What some try to present as more evidence of hypocrisy…
Msg 278…
From the inspiration of the poster's identity:
Resistance is Futile
Followed by trademark arrogance and denial of his own complicity:
We merely point out illogic (and the bullying that so frequently accompanies it) when we so desire (such is free will).
Note the "drone" character devoid of free will Borg identifies with.
…is clearly just another weak attempt at ad hominem attack. As mentioned before, the main indicator of ad hominem is in how irrelevant or non-sequitur the accusations are. In this case, the critic attempts to equate the name one has chosen as a screen tag to be indicative of one’s view of the topic, or even one’s real behaviour. This is a tenuous at best, and in this case is entirely without merit. It is as ludicrous to state that someone with a member tag of “zombie” is actually not alive, and is arguing the topic based on that premise.
One uses a discussion on climate science like a pageantry parade by waving one’s resume in one hand and beating one’s chest with the other (that IS an accurate description), and those that do not resort to vicarious trust by “credentials” are the “arrogant” ones? The irony is exceeded only by the absurdity. Has one anymore specious ad hominem to be debunked along with the junk science?
Personal attack is but irrelevant residue once specious misinformation has been washed away. No one is forced to resort to that.
Some wisely disengage. Some foolishly believe frothing rage is equal adversary to clear reason. It is a personal choice to embark on the latter course and prove to a widening audience of one’s inability to defend their position.
Msg 278…
they will be openly hostile to anyone who sheds light on the subject (we see it here all the time.)
And Borg is not openly hostile and discounting of open discussion?
Lol. This rhetorical is based on a false premise. Please indicate (in CONTEXT now) where The Collective has been even less than courteous (much less openly hostile). Inability to do so renders this a clearly false character assessment. On the contrary,
it is not difficult to see who resorts to continuously and irrelevantly bringing in their opponent’s avatar as if it is part of the discussion. It is not difficult to see who actually resorts to calling anyone who agrees with climate science “religious” or just “chanting”.
Nope. The Collective does not resort to these derisions. All can conclude who does that on a regular basis.
Msg 278…
The discussion of alternate mechanisms and exploring reasons for misleading observations is science!
This is a misrepresentation of what some have been doing. It is a straw man argument. No one has argued that discussing alternate mechanisms is NOT science. However, let us clearly state, AGAIN, that
speciously re-iterating the same fallacies over and over again (especially when one as been directly informed of the flaws) is NOT “science”. It is an agenda of misinformation.
Pretending this isn’t happening? Check out message 228 on the following thread for the very same “exploring reasons” (“coats of paint” in this case)…
http://forums.plentyoffish.com/10593991datingPostpage10.aspx
Has it been DIRECTLY refuted? Yep. Search that same page for the string “campaign of AD NAUSEAM misinformation”.
Has it been disingenuously suggested that it “hasn’t” been refuted? LMAO. Yep. Check out the same page for message 234 and read the last sentence.
While science is all about actively questioning the data, methodology and premises, it is NOT about repeating the same old fallacies as if it hasn’t been shown to be false.
It is not that easy to obscure that REAL record of insincerity any more.
Msg 278…
To Borg, science is a vote.
Nope. The collective has never said or implied anything of the sort. This is purely a false accusation and likely meant as derision. Let us remind some of what we actually just said in regards to “votes”…
The B0rg, msg 254…
“’Nothing more than opinion’ is purposely confusing the poll and the subject matter. Of course the poll is an opinion by its very nature. However, the science that the poll refers to is NOT merely opinion.”
“The point of the opinion poll is to determine if people consider the interpretations to be adequate. They necessarily ask climate scientists since that is their area of expertise.”
Msg 278…
mindless follows of a “faith”.
Yet Borg says the science is resolved by vote no less.
ROFLmAo. Please indicate (in context) where The B0rg has said that the science itself is resolved by a vote. Again, we were very careful in explaining that…
The B0rg, msg 254…
“’Nothing more than opinion’ is purposely confusing the poll and the subject matter. Of course the poll is an opinion by its very nature.
However, the science that the poll refers to is NOT merely opinion.
”
Either one is truly challenged in reading comprehension, or one is speciously pretending to not understand this distinction.
The B0rg, msg 254…
There is only debate because some choose to ignore the evidence.
EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IS NOT EVIDENCE OF CO2 CAUSES. Borg appears to be ignoring the evidence of prehistoric climate change and a past with far higher CO2 levels than we have today. To understand the motive for such blind faith, one has to explore motives yet Borg dismisses such exploration. What more evidence of a religion is needed?
LoL. This is another misrepresentation. No one, especially none of The Collective, has stated or eluded that, without further qualification, “evidence of climate change is evidence of CO2 causes”.
As far as the prehistoric climate change fallacy… Nope. It appears that we did indeed shed light on before…
http://forums.plentyoffish.com/10593991datingPostpage10.aspx
Search for the string, “In regards to the “there was more CO2 in the past” deflection…” in message 231 and one will find a detailed rebuttal. People should note too that this rebuttal was in response to the poster of message 228 on that thread. Perhaps that poster truly does have a short attention span.
Like we have demonstrated, “pretending” that a fallacy has not been debunked and proceeding to post it up again is clear indication of an agenda to misinform.
Msg 278…
discussion into politics
Accompanied by denial of Brog's very reason to post:
It is not a requirement of The Collective to convince.....
Unlike Borg, I have been open about my qualifications to form my own opinions and analysis of the topic. I do not often resort to citing some shaman of a religious-political movement as "proof" like Borg does but I actually form my own opinions and express them. In short, I am not a drone in some collective. I have argued repeatedly that people should think for themselves. Borg has done the opposite:
It is clear who consistently directs the conversation into politics (as it is a way to deflect from the inability to support their argument scientifically) and it is NOT The Collective. We do not have a requirement to convince those who refuse to be convinced. That is the context of the quotations you have so minced as to render their meaning purposely disambiguated.
As far as qualifications, you have indicated them only as a convenient substitute to providing explanation for your wild claims (such as “CO2 has a cooling effect”). As far as openness in supplying qualifications, one has not revealed them as readily as one uses them as an intimidation tactic. You were SPECIFICALLY asked to reveal these boasted credentials in more detail…
http://forums.plentyoffish.com/10593991datingPostpage8.aspx
See message 184.
At that point it became apparent that the particulars were not as forthcoming as the boast. If the proof is less visible than the boast, it is just “saber rattling”.
Even if revealed,
as far as any one else’s qualification, they are irrelevant unless one is either a bona fide climate scientist, or, they are used specifically as a form of support (as you have on numerous occasion.)
If the assertions supported are proven faulty, one really shouldn’t attach their “credentials to them… lest they be dragged down as well.
In contrast, The B0rg has not relied on its “credentials” in lieu of transparency. The B0rg relies on the accountability of the arguments it presents. We have gone over this before. If you wish, you can assume that we are at a grade-school dropout level.
Please provide some evidence as to how and when The Collective has argued that people should not think for themselves. Do not confuse this with “people shouldn’t have to perform the extensive battery of climate tests and calculations themselves”. Without delegation of such tasks to experts is willfully asking for ridiculous justification. Inability to do so is standalone proof that such allegations are absolutely false.
Msg 278…
Resistance is Futile
I have extensive experience in the measurement and analysis of time varying and cyclic real world parameters where my understanding of science is not up for a vote but must prove itself in producing results. Borg prefers a vote.
Such “extensive” experience would be relevant if one understood when and where the Nyquist criteria can be mitigated by corroboration through other analyses. Speciously bringing it in and defending it by trying to justify via “experience” rather than reasoning is invalid regardless of how many times one tries this ploy.
Working for years in a piano store will make one very familiar with pianos, but it does not make one a virtuoso. Only the tune they can actually seduce out of those 88 keys is proof of musical ability. Merely pounding on some keys at maximum volume at every available opportunity is just noise.
As far as the “vote”, that is clearly a misrepresentation that we have covered above (and many times before).
Msg 278…
Then there is this:
were doing so because they were being rewarded (in cash or other forms of payment) to lie about it
yet this is the very accusation made about tobacco science! It has been pointed out that massive fortunes are to be made from carbon credit trading and fortunes are already being made from fear mongering movies such as that from Al Gore. This accompanies the motive of political power. Many scientists live in a publish or parish environment and political correctness steers grants to those who "witness their faith" and denounce the unfaithful with demeaning and inaccurate labels such as "denier."
Yes. Propaganda for profit is the very same thing that those who speciously deny the correlation between smoking and cancer.
One can suggest climate science is influenced by “political power” motives, but as yet NO PROOF whatsoever has been forthcoming as to how these scientists are profiteering (we are not talking about AL GORE or any other politician). This challenge has been presented to you before, yet you have not provided any supporting exhibits. In absolute contrast is how easy it is to provide a clear link between purveyors of junk science (like OISM) and political funding.
What part of
“or other forms of payment”
is one not understanding (or pretending not to understand)? Reward is often not in cash. For example, one who perceives that academia has unjustly not held them in esteem in the past will be rewarded if they can vengefully create dissent or a false sense of amateurish conduct in the scientific community.
The reward is handsome even if not a single penny is gained when the sole purpose is to sling mud upon those one holds in contempt.
We see this in many of those who run Astroturf sites. Sometimes the audience doesn’t even have to look that far when that mud slides off and only soils the hands of the one who throws it.
Msg 278…
Much of my career has been in energy conservation as well as the measurement and analysis patents I have generated. I also work throughout the IR spectrum with both IR enhanced vision systems and deep IR thermal imaging.
What relevance does this have if one ignores the temperature and pressure gradient of the atmosphere in order to recite the same fallacy of “coats of paint” over and over again? FLIR systems (MWIR or LWIR) usually don’t need to take the GHG effect into consideration in order for them to work (we are sure one is aware of this if thermography is part of their resume).
Msg 278…
What qualifications does Borg have other than his identifying with a cancelled fiction TV show? Maybe it's because he read some internet published paper he like to cite. Yup, there's some facts we can count on along with the hair growth and male enhancement drugs.
What relevance does this have if The B0rg has not used “credentials” as support for illogical arguments? We have maintained integrity on the merits of our arguments. Those who use their “credentials” rarely do it because they have such merit in their argument (yes, we and many others have shown the fallacies in “CO2 has a cooling effect” or other offerings in the past).
As far as equating the peer-reviewed documentation provided by The Collective in the past to that of late night infomercial quackery, you have yet to provide any support. Considering that both “CO2 has a cooling effect” and “coats of paint” have been debunked based on serious flaws, it more likely that they are deserving of a 2am airing on your local TV station. But have whatever opinion you like.
Msg 278…
I have been active in environmental causes for over 4 decades. It's not some petroleum industry I am arguing for but science.
As we have not specifically accused you of being a crony for the petroleum industry this is merely a misrepresentation. We have already indicated one of many other forms of “payment” one can accrue from falsely debasing climate science. It is left up to the audience to ascertain what form of payment you believe you are accruing.
Msg 278…
Borg prefers blind faith in bureaucrats labeled as "scientists" as "resistance is futile". When the basis of policy is erroneous science, the environment suffers.
One accuses, but unless one can substantiate such claim by showing that authors of papers offered up by The Collective as scientific evidence are actually politicians in lab coats, this is purely a conjured accusation. Don’t even think of referring to the Grist Mill as “scientific” support. The Collective used that paper as support of claims of bias from the typical denier hero. We refer to scientific documents for the scientific corroboration. There are serious doubts one will actually provide any proof of such transgression.
Msg 278…
Note the ethanol mandates that is killing sea life and resulting in deforestation to grow fuel crops while burning oil to do it. The "profits" from such activity are driven by tax code, not free markets. The again, Borgs says "resistance is futile" so one should not question the wisdom of government.
This deflection into the detriments of mitigation strategies has been done before.
None of it speaks to the science, and is the very diversion into “politics” one is coyly pretending to have no part off.
Such is the case, when false science like “CO2 has a cooling effect” or “coats of paint” are posted ad nauseam in an attempt to denigrate climate science. Once these are fallacies are exposed, detractors will resort to personal attack (since they really have NO position of merit.)
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LoL. False accusation, ad hominem attack and deflections is all one gets once the fallacies in denial claims are pointed out (yet again).
Don’t think so? Have a look at these two threads to see if this assertion, that some just post up the SAME debunked fallacies over and over again, isn’t accurate for “coats of paint” or “back in the Jurassic days”, etc…
http://forums.plentyoffish.com/datingPosts10593991.aspx
http://forums.plentyoffish.com/datingPosts9117203.aspx
You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
(So Ask and you shall receive; Deceive and you shall be so tasked; Challenge and you will be soundly refuted... yet again. LoL)
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
273 (
view
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Recent report on climate disruption, re. The Science of
Posted: 1/25/2009 10:11:12 PM
There is only debate because some choose to ignore the evidence.
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Some specific answers…
Msg 260…
Dear B0rg,
Thanks for your lengthy and well-thought out reply to my points.
There is no need to thank us, but it is acknowledged as human graciousness.
Msg 260…
I agree that your opinion to oppose my opinion is valid.
Purely an obfuscation.
The validity of an opinion is not based on merely having it. Validity is based on the merit of what that opinion is supported on, or, conversely what causes it to be not so supported.
Nonetheless, you reserve the right and the capacity to form your own opinion (valid or otherwise). The elimination of free will would likely turn this forum into monologue (curiously not unlike how some deniers, especially those with the agenda to debase the scientific community in general, choose to treat it.)
Msg 260…
This allowance for differences of opinion is what I think makes the evidence inconclusive regarding man's involvement in the process of global warming.
If by that, one means that there is enough ambiguity in the current analyses to render anthropogenic contributions as effectively inconsequential it is invalid. There is enough evidence to show that the current perturbations in global mean temperatures are not wholly independent of the onset of large scale industrialization. One can maintain an opinion in opposition to this, but other than calling the entire cause and effect to be coincidental, and doing so without any evidence of an alternate mechanism, there is no support for it.
However, if by that, one means that there is insufficient information to predict how the entire climate system will react, and how much of that reaction is beyond the natural elastic limit, then that is open to debate. There is allowance for conference there. It is unfortunate that some others here feel any thread on “climate change” is an invitation to post all sorts of fallacious propaganda ad nauseam. If it did not happen with such predictable frequency, the discussion of the depth of climate departures could actually happen.
Msg 260…
If we were discussing "gravity", we would not be arguing whether humanity's influence on gravity as a physical phenomenon is significant or not.
In the context of your analogy, the gravity of an object is related to its mass. Up to this time, the influence that human have on adjusting the mass of the earth is, well, insignificant. That isn’t the case with the ability of humans in accelerating the reintroduction, and seriously increasing the concentration of CO2 into the atmosphere. Human industrialization also creates a host of other environmentally negative situations on a global scale.
If it’s just even the existence of gravity itself, that is so NOT because anthropogenic climate change contribution is any less real than gravitational attraction. It is so because gravity’s effect is much more apparent, more accessible and easily demonstrated. If one’s only window to gravitational effect was that of measuring orbital paths and velocities, many would dismiss it since they don’t personally perceive it happening. This is the potential vagueness and relative difficulty in personally ascertaining the cause and effect that detractors exploit.
Msg 260…
We would also not argue whether issues in political science are influenced by humans or not.
If the behaviour exhibited by some on these threads is any indication, that probably wouldn’t be true. There would be those who would argue that the planets were running on invisible rails (or something else unseen), or moving at random (they were called wanderers…), and that scientists that demonstrate this “gravity” thing were doing so because they were being rewarded (in cash or other forms of payment) to lie about it or to create fear in of elusive gravity monster. Anyone who understood that this “gravity” existed would be mindless follows of a “faith”.
Msg 260…
The very fact that opposite opinions on global warming are each valid is why I maintain the liberty to not believe that humans contribute to it.
Nope.
This is still employing the fallacy that merely holding an opposing opinion makes it equally valid.
This fallacy seeks to dismiss all the evidence supporting findings of climate science simply because someone decides to disagree for no reason but to disagree. It doesn’t work that way.
As far as maintaining the “liberty to not believe”, just who is taking, or threatening to take, that liberty away from you? Any human can choose to believe whatever they want to believe in. Of course, when it comes to logical debate, merely “believing” without a shred of support isn’t too convincing. Yet by all means, believe whatever you wish. It is not a requirement of The Collective to convince those who purpose refuse to of anything. We merely point out illogic (and the bullying that so frequently accompanies it) when we so desire (such is free will).
Msg 260…
If it were proven either way, there would be no debate. And since the debate is happening, it will still not solve the puzzle. Only scientific findings in the physical world and their proper interpreation can solve that puzzle.
Did we not just cover this?
There is “debate” ONLY because there are those who speciously choose to disagree in lieu of the evidence.
When put to task, most will then toss out some standard myths as “proof” of their contrary stance, or deflect the discussion into politics or irrelevant minutiae. Once that is debunked, many will resort to name-calling and ridiculing the critic. Others will just repeat the same fallacies as if it hasn’t been debunked.
Some will do both. You witness it with the “coats of paint” fallacy repeating message above. You witness it when people speciously disambiguate that measuring effects at the poles means that the GHG effect must have to happen right over them (never mind the fact that the GHG effect affects the entire global system).
These detractors attempt to create false doubt so they can justify believing their conclusions (or in some cases, justify denouncing the scientific community). If not so before,
it is apparent to any following these threads, that there are those to which no amount of scientific proof is enough.
Msg 260…
For whatever reason, we are not at that stage yet.
Not quite so.
Only a small percentage of people are in denial, and of that segment very few truly disbelieve.
The nature of “denial” is that one is actually aware of a truth and it’s certainty; one only consciously chooses to deny it.
Some elect to quietly isolate themselves from the evidence by employing rationalizations based on counterfeit dénouement. However, some are so fervent with defiance that they will be openly hostile to anyone who sheds light on the subject (we see it here all the time.)
No one is robbing you of the right to think however you wish. Clinging to falsehood once that falsehood is shown to be illogical to one self (as well to one’s peers) may jeopardize one’s dignity if one too entangles their ego, but freedom of choice is still intact. Contrary to what some falsely accuse, we actively avoid passing judgment and we do not coerce the occasionally necessary one upon others; we explore the foundations of platforms (and for that we are often the target of name-calling and ridicule…)
Your opinion is still your opinion and one can believe it is solidly founded regardless of how it’s been shown to be faulty. Whether it is disingenuous, illogical, unsupported or all of the aforementioned is up to each individual viewing this thread to decide on their own (such is the nature of free will.) Whether you believe the findings of climate science or not doesn’t change the fact that a significant, no, overwhelming percentage of climate experts believe it. In the final analyses, it will be their “opinion” that matters as far as decisions makers go.
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There is only debate because some choose to ignore the evidence.
You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
251 (
view
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The Science of Global Warming
Posted: 1/23/2009 2:02:35 PM
Nope. The premises used to nullify the survey results are faulty.
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Some specific answers…
Msg 240…
IP addresses do not ensure one email recipient -- one vote. That is so because after answering the set of questions, the scientist can walk over to the next machine in the next room in the facitily he works in, and vote again. Then repeat the process until he gets tired or runs out of computers.
What you are referring to is “ballot box stuffing”. Questionpro.com, like most online survey services, has techniques to detect and prevent this kind of vote rigging. IP address tracking and cookie insertion is just one of the methods invoked and is likely what is mentioned in literature about the Doran and Zimmerman poll. However, there is a battery of active and passive techniques used to identify and screen out such tampering. It isn’t that easy to tamper with cyber ballots anymore.
Msg 240…
The respondends were also a self-selected group within a selected group. If one assumes that every recipient was honest and voted only once, still, less than one-third of those contacted answered the questionnaire.
They are certainly voluntary. But that is neither here nor there. If the response rate is statistically significant, there is a representative sampling of positive and negative responses. The total response volume only has to exceed this threshold (at least by North American mathematics).
Msg 240…
One-third participation does not make a valid statement about an issue.
The total response volume only has to exceed the statistical significance minimum threshold.
Msg 247…
"some are arguing here. that they are knowingly falsifying data" I donno, maybe someone claimed that. Everything is up to interpretation right now, that's why there is no consensus. No data needs to be falsified if the amount of it is so little that no consesus can be forced on the community by way of an overwhelming proof. Hence the interpretative nature of the interpretations and I simply choose to go with one instead of the other. If it was not left for interpretation, because proof existed, then the debate would not be going on.
Nope. The “everything is up to interpretation” is just another way of saying it’s “random” or that there is some other mechanism to explain the results. It is essentially a plea to ignorance. We could use that argument for any phenomena that occurs without human measurement of each and every variable (which is pretty much most things). We see this excuse all the time. It usually starts with the phrase, “Unless we know ALL the facts…” We haven’t personally seen ALL the people in New York City, but it is doubtful that all that we haven’t seen have purple hair. Now we can use the excuse of “unless we know ALL the facts” to say that maybe they all do… Right…
There is a great deal of corroboration in observed behaviour that matches what the climate model predicts. However, most deniers speciously hold climate science to a perfectionist’s requirement of absolute precision. In this way, they can maintain the false notion that there is reason to doubt. It is equivalent of someone stating that unless science can tell me the exact speed they are going, well perhaps they aren’t moving at all… it’s all interpretation then.
If there were no doubt there would be no debate? LoL. If that were true, we wouldn’t keep seeing people post “the atmosphere is optically thick”, or, “it’s the fluctuation in solar output” mythology ad nauseam (especially when their errors have been directly pointed out to them as many times as they post up the junk.) Nope. There is debate because some need (for whatever reason outside of really seeking the truth) to dismiss climate science. It goes on because there is a small but vocal group that wants to create doubt where doubt does not exist.
As far as consensus, it is becoming apparent that if just ONE scientist disagrees, deniers will hoist him or her up on their shoulders and parade around town proudly shouting that there is NO CONSENSUS.
Msg 247…
I believe people choose one or another interpretations according to their temperament.
Opinion or not, this is just conveniently ignoring the evidence as well as the discipline of avoiding bias that scientific practice demands.
Msg 247…
I am a contrarian, I tend to be very un-sheepish (unless around women). I think for myself, I come up with my own theories, false or true, no matter. I invent things. I am convinced that most scientists who side with the non-human effect on climate change are sorta dehumanized robots who look at things of science with no emotions, unless it's about the science of emotions. You know, Asperger's sufferers. Those who like to blame humans for the warming, they're like clever autodafe-directors. They like to keep the population feeling guilty, because they live in guilt and they can't imagine how somebody can live a happy and fulfilling life without the yoke of guilt.
We are B0rg.
This is just a veiled way of implying that those who agree with what climate science are unthinking sheep. That is a wholly unsupported opinion yet one that is common with most that deny the impact industrialization has had on the climate system.
Why would people feel “guilty”? Unless they were personally around for the past 200 years and actively promoted the industrial practices of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, it is difficult to expect such remorse from the average citizen. Does one have any shred of evidence that climate science as a whole (or even in part) are seeking to “guilt” people into understanding? (We are talking scientists here, not AL GORE).
Certainly mitigation strategies may involve some form of evocation of personal duty, but the science is still the science. To stray from that in this discussion is merely deflection to avoid exposure of non-substantiation in contrarian claims.
Nice try, though.
Msg 247…
"statistically speaking...one third participation could indeed make a valid statement if it could be shown to be representative of the entire population" This is true, but there is the conditional, there is the condition which at this point is not at all assured. It is a point that some people would like to prove or have others see that way. There is no way from our point to prove it, as "a representative sample" could only be interpreted if we had a view of the entire population, which then would render the significance of the representative sample moot. The problem is that 1. the gropup is self-selected and 2. the mechanics of the poll allow inaccuracies and prejudicial results. So this point about how it "could" be valid is null and void.
This is just attempting to dismiss the nature of statistical analyses when it apparently refutes ones argument. It is equivalent to picking 20 m&m’s out of a bag of 100, seeing they are all blue and declaring that the rest are equally likely to be red rather than blue… based on nothing more than believing that the bag should have been all red ones to begin with.
The group is self selected? Irrelevant, since purposeful naysayers are represented regardless of self selection.
The mechanics of the poll allow inaccuracies? Unless one can prove that Questionpro.com did not apply a reasonable amount of “anti ballot box stuffing” processes, this is wholly unsupported (articles may have mentioned “IP address” uniqueness, but this doesn’t mean that is all they use.) This renders such accusation null and void.
Msg 247…
And if it were truly random, and the necessary integrity would be there, it would still be nothing more than opinion. Not enough evidence to support either side. This is like deciding by voting whether latmus turns blue in acid or in base liquids. A few experiments, and it's proven that it's not the other way around. We still need those few experiments / observations in the climate change scrutiny.
“Nothing more than opinion” is purposely confusing the poll and the subject matter. Of course the poll is an opinion by its very nature. However, the science that the poll refers to is NOT merely opinion.
“Not enough evidence to support either side”. This just a permutation of the tired old ploy of “we will equate the sides based solely on being opposite”. Nope. There is plenty of corroboration and factual records that support the views of climate scientist. As it has been demonstrated even here on these threads (based on the numerous false claims proven to be false), there is really NOTHING supporting the contrarian view.
Msg 247…
"but I don't find all of their findings suspect" So don't I. I just realize that their findings are not pointing at any specific and hard-and-fast interpretation. The findings they have are accurate, I believe, but their interpretation of it is not reliable, as either we don't have enough findings or we don't know how to handle them if we do have enough findings.
Essentially this is just down to opinion on what one considers to be adequate interpretation of the data. In this way we have come full circle. The point of the opinion poll is to determine if people consider the interpretations to be adequate. They necessarily ask climate scientists since that is their area of expertise. If one considers that “biased”, then one is welcome to diagnose their personal ailments based on a random sampling of people off the street rather than that of a several physicians. Caution; results may vary; consult a random sampling of people. LoL.
Msg 247…
"hard to demonstrate how they benefit monetarily by being fraudulent" It's a common American misconception that money is the end all and the be all. In most cases in life, yes. But there is also the steadfast fidelity to a philosophy. A commitment to a belief. The belief in this case is not the fact of science, but that humans must feel guilt, so some scientists may be swayed and are without being fraudulent.
In the context of the original statement, “benefit monetarily” refers to specious accusations (in whole or implied) that scientists who agree with the current findings are doing so for ulterior reasons. Regardless of those ulterior reasons, it is the purely unsupported nature of such motives that was criticized. To focus on whether money is the payout is merely deflecting that valid assessment into a discussion on forms of payment.
If one feels that scientists are attempting to “guilt” the common citizen into compliance, please provide some evidence of this, or admit that this is wholly unsupported and biased opinion.
Msg 247…
"apparently, you are completely distrustful of their findings." Not at all. You must get beyond appearances. Of course, by findings I mean data (as in "I found a piece of new evidence") whereas you may mean interpretation ("I find you guilty of the charges.")
This is just arguing semantics to avoid the appraisal. Based on the information supplied, there is indication that some hold a view of “disbelief” then attempt to justify it with conjured evidence.
In more extreme cases, they will keep referring to debunked myths ad nauseam. Need proof of that? Have a look at this thread alone. See how often myths like the OISM Oregon petition is brought in, or the “atmosphere is optically thick” fallacy, or the “it’s all natural” ploy. There are other threads that will even prove that some of these myths are repeated even AFTER they are DIRECTLY shown to be false.
Msg 247…
(From another post:)
Can you name another field, other than science, where it is self correcting?
The only non-evidence based fields are philosophy and religion. We can cosider all fields as scientific if they are evidence based.
No, I cannot name another field which is self-correcting as science. The other two are philosophy and religion, and neither is self-correcting.
You win.
Yep. Science encourages healthy cynicism. The problem is when people misinterpret that to mean any contrarian view is a valid based solely on being contrary. The proof that deniers do so outside of logic is clear. When we see the same fallacies being promoted regardless of how many times they are refuted (“the atmosphere is optically thick”, “it’s the sun”, “Some glaciers are growing”, “climate scientists cannot possibly have any practical experience”, etc…) it points to propaganda to support an agenda OUTSIDE of seeking the truth.
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You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
38 (
view
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Dinosaurs
Posted: 1/22/2009 1:43:54 PM
Hey Froggy...
Msg 36…
Call me Moreau, but I'd love to do some tinkering with a variety of bird genes and the occasional dose of croc, to recreate some dinos :> So a few peons get eaten along the way Then maybe combine some of those results with a good sized fruit bat and maybe a vampire bat...dragons anyone?? Fortunately for the world, I have only slightly more money than ethics.
Coming to a mall near you… Kentucky Fried Therapod. (Don’t order the family-sized bucket unless you have a flat-bed truck).
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1026340/Jurassic-Park-comes-true-How-scientists-bringing-dinosaurs-life-help-humble-chicken.html
B0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
340 (
view
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Global Warming Real?
Posted: 12/24/2008 12:01:35 AM
Merry Christmas…
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A few specific answers…
Msg 326…
In re: msg. 312.
Well, let's see about these "challenges" and the way this poster has presented them.
Sure, let’s have a look.
Msg 326…
1) Once again, where's the "misrepresentation?" Let's look for what the poster is referring to. This blow-up started in my message numbered 301, where I state that "if figures used by Woppelmann and Berge-Nguyen are accurate, sea level rise in this century should tally between 5 and 8 inches, roughly about the rate it's been rising for the last several centuries." Quoting the Woppelmann paper directly: "We show here an exercise of combining GPS and tide guage results that reduces the global average sea level rise to 1.3mm per year." Do the math, folks. 1.3 mm x 100 years is 13cm--roughly 5 inches. The challenge was met, and once again solidly refuted. There was no misrepresentation of any science, a falsehood now proven (if it wasn't before).
LoL. Nice try at disambiguating. The
misrepresentation
of science referred to was in
your posting 298
on this thread…
As far as sea-level goes, folks, the newest research that I know of indicates that sea level rise isn't accelerating, confirming what other papers have either bluntly said or at least hinted at---AGW doesn't cause sea level rise acceleration.
The whole issue is that once again, scientific papers are being touted as agreeing with a denial stance. That is something that we have clearly demonstrated as misrepresentation. Specious defense of it by obfuscation or attempts to turn the discussion into a more “personal” battle is only proving the initial intentions.
What obfuscation one may ask? Re-iterating that this “blow-up” stemmed from posting 301 is just trying to obfuscate that fact, since it is pretty apparent that it really stems from the
posting 298
. By all means, try and challenge that.
Msg 326…
2) Oh, boy, "attacked the motives and sincerity of Morner." That, friends, is called a personal attack, an ad hominem. It's carried out against someone who's not here to defend themselves, rather than attack the scientific (and peer-reviewed) papers published by him. By the poster's own statements, this indicates the weakness of his arguments against Morner---which aren't even supported in the link the poster provided.
Nope. Nice try. “Not here to defend themselves”? By that reasoning, neither Arrhenius nor Fourier is here either (We suppose we could go back in time and retrieve them, but that may damage the space-time continuum). Similarly, Al Gore is not on these forums either (or maybe he is… LoL). Of course, the difference between the first two gentlemen and Mr. Gore is that the former DO represent the science, while Gore does not (although practically every denier will prop him up as such a straw man).
The fact that Morner used a misrepresentation of past credentials to his advantage is of importance. That is false pretense. The fact that Morner is directly linked to quackery like “water witching” is valid in that it really gives insight on the current status of Morner’s reliability. These are ALL related to the topic and the science. If none of us could question the validity of “experts” being drummed up, an entire rogue’s gallery of representatives could be brought in as “support”. As was mentioned before, this is what the denial camp wants, and that is why ANY question of the background or funding of an “expert” is intensely attacked.
Ad hominem?
Ad hominem, in respects to this forum (and peer-to-peer conversations in general), refers to DELIBERATE and IRRELEVANT attacks on the opponent.
That includes name-calling, false accusations and incessantly revolving posts around trying to conjure up “errors” on the part of those that call out spurious “science”. It is not in reference to questioning the validity or motives of referenced topic “experts”. We are sure EVERYBODY knows the difference.
You were challenged to provide evidence that Morner successfully defended or had that letter indicating his false representation retracted. Speciously trying to call this as “ad hominem” is just deflecting from the inability to do so.
Msg 326…
3) The poster's next challenge concerned "the last 6,000" years of sea level rise. Roughly, it's 0.5mm/yr. Of course, what the poster doesn't ask about is that between 15,000 and 6,000 years ago, sea level rose at about 10mm/yr.
That would be because we already referenced that particular accelerated event in our post 304…
“…The truth is that sea level change was quite stable for quite sometime, yet the past century of measurements have shown an increase from that steady state. Furthermore, the known rapid rises in the past, like the one that occurred for about half-a-millennium starting 14,200 years ago, point to meltwater from icecaps…”
One can continue to pretend that we haven’t put that event in perspective, but the record of our post 304 is still there. Innuendo that The Collective was avoiding the reality of such an event is, as usual, false and impotent.
Msg 326…
This blow-up was concerning what he called "natural" rate of sea level rise. The current rate (between 1 and 2mm/year) began around 1600 AD, well before humans began to pump GHG's from industry into the atmosphere.
Yes. That would be “natural” with respects to it having no “man made” contribution. The current rate has a rather marked correlation with the onset of industrialization no matter how one tries to down play it. The rate since 1600 isn’t refuting the rate since a couple of centuries ago. If one thinks so, please provide some corroboration of such (THAT would be all about the science).
Msg 326…
The point being made by me is that sea level rise isn't accelerating due to Anthropogenic factors, as alarmists claim. The data found in the papers I've cited bear that out.
Nope. The point made by you, in post 298, was again…
As far as sea-level goes, folks, the newest research that I know of indicates that sea level rise isn't accelerating, confirming what other papers have either bluntly said or at least hinted at---AGW doesn't cause sea level rise acceleration.
Firstly, the sea level rise has increased since the onset of industrialization. That’s pretty hard to deny (yet some people curiously continue to do it). This is not arguing semantics, as the meanings of the phrases with respects to the sea level rise are wholly different.
Secondly, you go on to say, “confirming what other papers have either bluntly said or as least hinted at”. It is this second assertion that we have demonstrated as clearly being a misrepresentation of the papers quoted. Come on.
You’re not even quoting YOURSELF in context now.
Msg 326…
There is no "natural" static rate of sea level rise, which is the real point behind what the poster is implying (knowingly or not).
RoFl. This is another one of those especially outlandish straw man arguments.
No where has The Collective stated, or implied that there is a “static” rate of sea level rise.
(Notice how the word “static” has been placed between “natural” and “rate” to reinforce this disambiguation).
Msg 326…
4) The poster next says he "challenged the (mis)interpretation of data analyses to mean wholesale theory refutation." From reading the post I'm responding to, I would suppose he's referencing my point concerning the fact that sea level rise isn't accelerating (in message 309). Evidently, the poster thinks that I'm saying that it refutes the whole theory of AGW. What I DID say was that it means that concerns for a catastrophic rise in sea level are unfounded. Check and read it for yourself. The poster does paste the quote from there in message 312 (to which I'm responding).
Nope.
In this thread the assertion relates to
your post 298
again…
As far as sea-level goes, folks, the newest research that I know of indicates that sea level rise isn't accelerating, confirming what other papers have either bluntly said or at least hinted at---AGW doesn't cause sea level rise acceleration.
As far as refuting the whole theory, there is clear evidence of INTENT from the comments found in the thread…
http://forums.plentyoffish.com/9117203datingPostpage11.aspx
">
http://forums.plentyoffish.com/9117203datingPostpage11.aspx
What is of interest is in how deniers will carefully avoid outright statements that the theory behind AGW is false. However, they will suggest that any minute departure from model predictions means that it can’t be “correct”. Furthermore, they will misrepresent conclusions from scientific papers (usually by carefully quoting portions of the conclusion, and in some extreme case, actually removing key words to alter the meaning).
The Collective’s assertion is that many deniers basically conjure “evidence” by specious misrepresentation to give those unfamiliar with the topic the false sense that the science is too faulty to be entertained.
Is that clear enough?
Msg 326…
5) Steer clear of personal attacks, hey? Well, a personal attack is a personal attack, directed against another poster or any other individual, especially when that individual was only referenced by their work in a field.
Nope. A personal attack on Morner would involve irrelevant elements such as “Morner is a lousy hockey player” (purely fictional… he may be NHL material). A personal attack on another poster involves false accusations and irrelevant subject matter like, “when my opponent says denier, he really means SIMULCAST denier” (even though the opponent has never brought up the really obscure link between SIMULCAST and denier).
When a testimony is brought forth, the legitimacy of the witness, IN CONTEXT to the discussion is wholly valid. Morner was presented as an expert witness, hence his capability as such is examinable.
Furthermore, the sustained campaign to falsely couch one’s opponent as a hypocrite is nothing more than a weak attempt at ironic justice. That too is personal attack. We have steered clear of such personal attack regardless of the repeated taunting and attacks against us. We are sure this is understood.
Msg 326…
We're not sitting here discussing the character of Barak Obama or Stephen Harper.
Actually, you did bring up the character of Barak Obama in message 299…
As a politico, I seriously doubt President-elect Obama will bother to objectively look at the science and see that it has far too numerous glaring flaws (just like those climate models you touted again) to act so hastily upon, such as what was done in the 1990's with the Kyoto treaty.
...so that would be FALSE.
Msg 326…
Morner was only referenced by his peer-reviewed work, and this poster makes an unmitigated effort to belittle Morner himself. The poster made no effort whatsoever to refute Morner's papers, just belittle the man himself.
What else would Morner be referenced for? His chicken salad recipe? Morner’s reliability as an expert witness was seriously damaged when evidence was brought forth that he was misrepresenting his status.
This happens when people are caught lying.
Any such “belittling” is his own doing. As far as refuting Morner, that is all that was necessary. Most deniers know this inferential process since the denial camp applies this stratagem (albeit irrelevantly) to Al Gore.
Nice try.
Msg 326…
Let's further examine this point of "personal attacks," shall we? His claim in this post (#312) that when I pointed out his errors, I used the term "his mistake," then implies I'm "attacking" him by doing so. His exact claim is: "notice how almost everything is couched as 'his mistake'...tell us this isn't concentrating on personally attacking the opponent." Pointing out errors isn't the same as making a personal attack. It's pointing out the errors found in an argument.
Nope, but consistently couching everything as (false) error on the part of the opponent is, especially when one could merely point out the (false) error in the assertion (rather than the person). That is what we were pointing out… so nice try at disambiguating, but we are aware of what we actually asserted.
Msg 326…
An example of a personal attack would be this poster's constant (and, incidentally, false) claims of misrepresentation of science or scientific papers. Notice item 1 of this post, where I directly refute his claim of "misrepresentation" of Woppelmann's figures. I stated in the beginning of this whole line of discussion that sea level rise in this century should be between 5 and 8 inches, citing figures found in Woppelmann's and Berge-Nguyen's papers. Yet, here comes the "B0rg," claiming that I'm misrepresenting those figures.
Nope.
Misrepresentation is like claiming your opponent accused you of “misrepresenting those FIGURES” when we actually asserted that you, “misrepresented Woppelman’s CONCLUSIONS about those figures”.
LoL. Misrepresenting your opponent to mitigate a misrepresentation is truly ironic. Feel free to re-read The Collective’s post 304 if you think that is in “error”.
Msg 326…
Another example he discusses here; that of a prior episode on another thread. The poster claims the attack wasn't false. Wrong, it was. To demonstrate: the claim of the poster is that I had cited Esper et al.'s paper before, and another poster informed me that I was quoting it out of context, and I "ran away." Well, if one can read what transpired on that long ago thread, the truth would prove the lie of that claim.
Nope. In fact, it was only after that thread was deleted (due to some activity much later), that certain posters returned to this discussion.
Msg 326…
My opponent on that thread, upon reading the references I posted, accused me of "plagiarizing" my list from some obscure professor (who that same opponent regarded as a nutcase); and his vile behavior was more than most could care to be bothered with (as I stated, even an advocate came to my defense), and I no longer cared to bother with his ilk, as I had better things to do with my time.
Yes. There was such an incident, but that is not the one we have referred to. The incident involves the actual removal of a key word from Esper’s conclusion. This infraction even earned a message from the moderator at that time that members refrain from altering text when quoting. It was before The B0rg arrived, but we did read it.
Msg 326…
His obviously false statement (that I was "called" on my reference, then "ran away") becomes rather obvious, even on what little we can glean from the thread reader he provided as supposed support for his falsehood. Nobody on that long ago thread ever called my quote of the Esper paper "out of context," nor is it the reason I decided to stop posting on that thread.
Lol. The last time one smugly assumed that there was no record of past transgressions, we witnessed a lot of back-peddling when third party documentation was made available. As far as reason to stop posting, we noted the remarkable relationship between the deletion of the thread and the reappearance of certain posters. The rest is speculation on your part.
Msg 326…
The only one who ever did was this poster here, calling himself a "collective." In his last post, he even goes so far as to say that I "altered" Esper's conclusion (what he actually says, if one can still read the other thread, is that I left out a portion of it---far from altering it---which constitutes (by stating I altered that text in quoting the Esper paper) another falsehood).
We are certain there are others that have read that thread, and are now seeing the level at which some deny the truth. As far as misrepresenting the science, the other thread,
http://forums.plentyoffish.com/9117203datingPostpage11.aspx
">
http://forums.plentyoffish.com/9117203datingPostpage11.aspx
…is a good indication of the REPETITIVE subterfuge by deniers that The Collective is drawing attention to. It is also still quite accessible!
Msg 326…
Notice in that same post yet another example. The poster constantly uses the term "denier" in reference to his opponents. Here, he continues to defend it by distorting what I say, and says it violates "Godwin's Law." He even goes so far as to say, when my reference was only to the remote beginnings of the use of the term, that I have to point out where Elie Weisel is connected to climate change. He's not, and that wasn't the point being made--only the poster seems to think so. Fact is, and remains, that the term is a pejorative, intended to belittle and antagonize persons who show any real doubt of the notion that Anthropogenic Greenhouse Emissions are the primary cause of our current changes in climate.
Nope. You are on your own on this.
The point, in case you missed it, was that Weisel has NO REVELANCE to this discussion other than that absolutely OBSCURE reference. That was the point purposely being illustrated.
The term “denier” is used because it is the clear and precise title of those who choose to deny the truth in light of exposure to it.
To make a very convoluted reference to 1930’s politics is entirely your fabrication, and can not be seen as anything but a violation of Godwin’s law. Skeptics do not cherry-pick science in attempts to create confusion and doubt. If one was really practicing skepticism, they would see the science for what it really is. As well, they would easily see that The Collective, like the science community at large absolutely encourages skepticism.
Belittle? Antagonize? We leave it up to individual readers to decide who does that.
Msg 326…
Yet another example is his claim that I believe climate science is "alchemy." Now, I'm the one who posts references to scientific papers found in scientific journals, and I believe a discipline of science is "alchemy?" I think the contradiction here is quite obvious. Not only have I ever said such, the notion is preposterous. Another false attack, but a personal attack nonetheless.
Firstly, merely posting scientific references is not the same as posting them as specious support for denial claims. Secondly, suggesting that the “science of climatology” is “alchemy” is not quite the same as suggesting that a discipline of science is alchemy. Thirdly,
you DO clearly suggest that the science of climatology is alchemy in that you constantly herald that the conclusions are based on inconclusive evidence, or that the evidence is even in contradiction.
Arguing that you have not used the exact wording is just arguing semantics. The meaning and intentions are quite clear.
(We have already pointed this out).
As The Collective clearly supports all its assertions with clear and direct reference, and where ever possible, errors are couched as the propagation from Astroturfing web sites, this accusation of “personal attack” is unsupported. In the cases where posters have attempted to evade truthful representation of their actions by deflection, subterfuge and in case pure falsehood, the implication of such posters is necessary to the discussion. Even then, we are careful to avoid unnecessary denigration or insult. Just as we have tidily done on this post, there have been no “false” accusations on our part.
Of course, reciprocation of this regard to decorum is up to individual readers to ascertain.
Msg 326…
I think most of you can see where I'm going with this. The poster complains that I continually engage in personal attacks (by pointing out his errors), then makes the ridiculous claim that he doesn't do so, and remains aloof from them.
Nope.
We point out that you repeatedly attempt to create a false sense that your opponent is hypocritical in asserting that you resort to direct personal attack. In reality, we point out that you have repeatedly avoided challenges, and when pressed will either resort to personal attack (yes, that includes false accusations to generate a false sense of hypocrisy) or at best deflect with re-invented or outright fabrication of context (and we have gone over each instance of this as they appear).
It’s a ridiculous claim that The Collective does not engage in personal attack? Nope. Wrong again. If you are referring to the dismantling of heroes like Morner, we have explained why one is clutching at straws in calling that “personal attack”.
Aloof? Wrong. We actually take the time to read your posts (even the repetitive ones) and carefully rebut them. How is that “aloof “?
Msg 326…
Calling one's opponents by pejorative terms like denier is one such. Making blatantly false charges of "misrepresentation" is another such. Using a false story, and calling another poster "emasculated," to belittle an opponent is one more.
Nope. If one is denying the existence of a anthropogenic climate change in spite of the amount of corroboration with carefully executed study, even after it has been brought to there attention, they are aptly called deniers. Any attempt to disambiguate the term “denier” to mean denier of things far more disgusting than anthropogenic climate change denier is both specious and malicious. The record clearly shows who introduced this notion and who continues to draw attention to it.
False charges of misrepresentation? Nope. As always we carefully outline what was misrepresented and how it was misrepresented. As always you can maintain whatever opinion you wish on that, but we have clearly demonstrated that it is untrue to say that The Collective has falsely accused you of this.
Msg 326…
To falsely claim someone misquoted a paper by altering the text is yet another. To use a false charge (like saying your opponent thinks climate science is alchemy) as a strawman is yet another. Falsely asserting that your opponent broke something called "Godwin's Law" qualifies as another.
The chances are that one of these days, some participant of that past thread will point out that it did occur. At that point will you claim that they too are conjuring that misquotation?
As far as suggesting that science is alchemy, we have already clearly and concisely explained the evaluation of that. Are we disambiguating to prop up a straw man? Nope. It was the truth.
You do indeed violated Godwin’s law every time you speciously link the word denier to mean what you suggest it does through a very obscure and convoluted connection.
Msg 326…
Look, folks, I'm all for discussing the science of the matter and staying within that boundary. This is why I much prefer discussing this with the like of wvwaterfall, a much more civil fellow who doesn't stoop to such tactics (then claim not to!) as the poster whose message I'm responding to here.
On one thing we agree, WVwaterfall is a very civilized member of this community. However, you have been unable to demonstrate a single instance where The Collective has been uncivilized towards you (in spite of the continuous stream of discourtesy unleashed upon us).
Stooping to tactics and claim not too? Nope. We have refuted this point by point.
After a years worth of misrepresentations of science to promote a dissenting view, there are serious doubts that some are really about the science. If one was, they would re-evaluate their stance based on a lot of the rebuttals in the multitude of climate change threads (both past and present). We are not the only member of this forum to conclude that, nor are we even the only poster to have pointed it out.
Those who run Astroturf sites don’t do it help deniers or even “skeptics”. They don’t do it for the sake of science either. They do it earn money and get a good laugh out of those they can deceive. The really outlandish ones do it because they have this need to “strike back” at the community they see as not holding them in the high regard they deserve (like OISM). Heck, they care less about you than people think the government does. Don’t be fooled into thinking that there is some great scientific conspiracy to enable the government to get more tax money out of you. There isn’t. If big brother wants money, they will just take it. There’s no need to “fool” you into it.
Msg 326…
Under ordinary circumstances, I'd be inclined to wish him a happy POF birthday (as his date of joining says December 14), but it's obvious such a good personal gesture would be for naught.
This is really irrelevant… but in the spirit of the season…
Then think of it as extraordinary circumstances. You may continue to denigrate The Collective in lieu of real defense, or choose to realize that The Collective has only been discussing the science. When observed, we have pointed out where, and how, science is being misrepresented. That is all.
The B0rg even personally extends to you a Merry Christmas as is customary for earthlings at this point in the orbit.
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A new year is nigh upon the earth. Practice REAL skepticism and one will be referred to as such. Speciously bring up the same old misrepresentations and remain in denial.
You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
312 (
view
)
Global Warming Real?
Posted: 12/11/2008 6:28:17 PM
Still sticking to couching everything as my opponent has made this (false) mistake or that (false) mistake? Violating Godwin’s Law again?
Let’s see, in the last post alone…
We challenged the (mis)representation of Woppelman’s figures.
We challenged the motives and sincerity of Morner.
We challenged one to cite the average rate of sea level change in the past 6,000 years and how it compares to the past century.
We challenged the interpretation of data analyses to mean wholesale theory refutation.
We challenged the denial camps ability to steer clear of personal attack (yes, that is “personal” in respects to forum members and not that of denial heroes).
… but instead of answering these challenges, one only pretends that the challenges have not be issued.
Try answering the challenges. Then again, after a year’s worth of deflection and ad nauseam and previously debunked denial junk, it is doubtful there will be such a resolution.
Some specific answers…
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Msg 309…
Woppelmann's figures show a 1.4 mm/yr increase in relative sea level, and the poster of that statement points out in bold print that it's an order of magnitude larger than the "natural" sea level rise, whatever that's supposed to mean. I would guess (until this poster corrects me) it was what is in the next part of the bolded statement: the last 3,000 years show a rise of 0.1 to 0.2 mm per year rise. First error.
Nope. No error there. Most studies show a much greater rise in the past couple of hundred years than in the several millennia before that.
Msg 309…
The actual correct rise in relative sea level is 1 to 2 mm per year (Larsen & Clark, A search for scale in sea level studies, Journal of Coastal Research, 22(4), 788-800, 2006), and it's roughly steady, and began in the 1600's (about the point where the Little Ice Age began to decline).
RoFl. The “correct” rise? Oh, and please quote where Larsen & Clark address the rise in the past 6,000 years and 3,000 years. We were not talking about the past 400. It is curious how Larsen and Clark’s paper is the very same one that Astroturf sites are using as a cherry-pick against the rest of the studies… OK… so let’s be clear here. What is the rate from 3,000 years ago to 1600 AD?
Msg 309…
The next section this post's author responds to says my quoted statement (found again in msg. 301, as the previous one was) is basically a misinterpretation of scientific studies. He then goes on to explain what he means by that, which (as it turns out) isn't what is under discussion here. It's the fact that sea level rise isn't accelerating as predicted by most advocates. Nowhere do I say here that scientists exaggerate anything, in fact, the point is pretty clear from my posts that the exact opposite is true. Even the IPCC is cautious on this point of accelerating sea level rise.
Even the remaining records on these forums provide ample evidence of whether one misrepresents science or not. People can make up there own minds on that. What was explained next was how straw-man tactics are used to justify the criticisms (much like this last quote from message 309).
The implied (yes IMPLIED) meaning when one says that “science is now finding out” is that science is somehow responsible for the alarm in the first place. If one REALLY was practicing “skepticism” instead of “denial”, there wouldn’t be the constant stream of regurgitated Astroturf propaganda.
Msg 309…
Next, the poster who started his post by challenging me to answer him point-by-point without personal attacks or other such "tactics" stoops to one himself. Here, he goes into one on Dr. Morner. He charges others (me included) with making personal attacks, saying it shows a lack of true ability to challenge the current "understanding;" now he makes another of his own.
Nope.
The Collective has not intentionally personally attacked any posters here or in the past.
In absolute contrast, your “rebuttals” have been clearly focused on attempts to directly denigrate your opponent.
As mentioned before, this behaviour demonstrates a weakness in position since it is just avoiding the topic (as well as concentrating on being seen as “right” rather than seeking the truth).
Msg 309…
He talks something of Morner's belief in "dowsing," and not even noticing that his link doesn't even support that. It leads to a letter to the President of the Russian Academy of Sciences that discusses Dr. Morner's supposed representation of himself as president of INQUA'a commission on sea level change (he is, in fact, a President emeritus of that commission, and is usually noted as such in interviews). The letter presents no supporting evidence of the truth of that charge, and the only other item of consequence is the assertion of it's author that INQUA doesn't share his views of AGW.
LoL. If one believes that Morner is not a dowsing advocate, please provide clear evidence that this is a false accusation. It’s pretty easy to find the water witching connection to Morner but anyone can PRETEND that it isn’t true.
The fact that such a letter was written is indicative of subterfuge on the part of Morner. That is what we were demonstrating. If you feel the letter is spurious, feel free to provide similar evidence that it has either been retracted or successfully challenged by Morner.
Msg 309…
In the next section, he quotes from my post, numbered 298. Note his next paragraph, where he belittles that quote with a blatantly false analogy. Nowhere do I mention the computer models, I bluntly state that the most current research shows that sea level rise isn't accelerating (and obviously such an acceleration can't be caused by AGW if it's not happening).
Right… and just HOW is that analogy inappropriate? Nope. It is APPROPRIATE because it demonstrates the fallacy of holding the precision of interpolation of a data value to be indicative of the sensibility of an established trend. This concept was the focus. That is what the analogy addresses. Stating that you didn’t mention “the computer models” is merely a disambiguation in an attempt to avoid this truth.
Whether or not there is acceleration in latter decades of the twentieth century does not separate AGW from the sea level trend. This has already been covered. As far as “bluntly stating”, it is apparent from the record that some believe that the science is contrived, support it with carefully misinterpreted references, and defend it with personal (yes “personal” as in directly attacking the forum opponent) attack.
Msg 309…
He next goes into a discussion of Holgate's paper, which isn't even the most recent. Berge-Nguyen et al.'s paper is, and I'll remind everyone of the first error of his I pointed out here (about sea level rise in geological terms). There are other papers, as well, that make the point that I've made that I haven't presented. True enough, sea level rise falls within the range of predictions by the IPCC, but it's in the lower ends of the range---meaning that the problems discussed by high end scenarios are just what I called them: far-fetched.
LoL. What? Like only the most recent paper is valid?
You referenced Holgate as support, and we covered that off.
We are sure there are other papers one can cherry-pick or misrepresent out of context to support all sorts of spurious conclusions. We’ve seen many attempts in the past.
High-end scenario? Just who supports the high-end scenario (and by high-end, we are talking about the 1 meter rise in 100 years and such… not the high end of the IPCC estimates).
Msg 309…
His next quote comes again from post 298; and he again makes the same mistake he made before. As I pointed out first, sea level rise began at it's current rate at the end of the LIA, and it hasn't accelerated above that rate in the 20th century. If sea level rise is, indeed, an "extrapolation" of mean temp rise, what's that saying if it's not accelerating as predicted? It means that concerns of a catastrophe are uncalled for.
Nope. The rise in sea level in the past several millennia is well documented and corroborated. No “mistake” there. As far as an increase in rate since industrialization, it is pretty clear. If it not accelerating in the last two decades of the twentieth century, that doesn’t negate what the record shows for the past several thousand years. Nice try.
Notice how almost everything is couched as “his mistake”… tell us that isn’t concentrating on personally attacking the opponent. LoL. Read on…
Msg 309…
His next quote comes from post 299, where he then launches into complaints about personal attacks and other tactics he claims to abhor.
Claim to Abhor? Please cite where in The Collective’s post 304 that we have stated or suggested that we abhor this behaviour. If unable to do so, this will constitute yet another on a long list of false accusations. LoL. Complaints? Nope. The personal attacks only clearly indicate that one has absolutely no merit in their argument. In fact, the “support” is so baseless that one has to degenerate into slinging false accusations in order to loosely justify disparagement. Resorting to juvenile tactics is voluntary, choose however you wish.
Msg 309…
To answer one distortion here, he claims that I claim that his use of "denier" to mean "holocaust denier," ("like incredibly linking 'denier' to mean 'holocaust denier,'" to use his own words exactly). To be precise, I've pointed out why that word (as opposed to skeptic or contrarian) is offensive---that being it's meant to equate those who aren't convinced by arguments for AGW, based on rather tenuous science, with modern-day nutcases who literally deny the fact of the holocaust of the Nazi era, which has much more substantial evidence to support it as fact.
ROFLMAO. Not merely a “claim” at all. You just did it again in message 309. If The Collective (or anyone else for that matter) was intending to say “blueberry denier”, we would have said “blueberry denier”. To tag on something as obscure as “blueberry” is to disambiguate (and disambiguate falsely).
Msg 309…
It stems from a reporter years ago (2005, if memory serves) complaining skeptics were wanting interview time. To be precise, he said, "If I interview Elie Weisel, should I have to grant equal time to a holocaust denier?" Since then, the word "denier" has caught on as a belittling tactic always used by advocates to mean someone who disbelieves what (to them) should be beyond question.
There is no connection here but a very obscure and convoluted one.
Unless one can elaborate on how Weisel is in any way SCIENTIFICALLY connected to Anthropogenic Climate Change, one has now clearly violated Godwin’s Law. You are on your own on this.
Msg 309…
Note, if you will folks, how he accuses others of defending their viewpoint in much the same manner he does his. As an example of this, there's another thread on the subject open on this forum where both of us appear. It is here he makes a false personal attack, and he knows it as such. He falsely claims that (in msg. 193) I tried "using that same ploy" (quoting a paper by Esper et al.), and "failed." In the thread he referred to, I was personally character attacked by an advocate, wvwaterfall even came to my defense, if you'll look at the thread and it's posts in their entirety (impossible now, even on the threadreader). The attacking advocate claimed I "plagiarized" my references from some individual or other. This is what is was called in his msg. 193 of that thread "emasculated."
Nope. There was no “false” attack. You have and still do employ the ruse of misrepresenting scientific essays by cherry-picking text. This is what others have pointed out in the past. It is what we point out now.
The Collective carefully pointed out and provided evidence that certain posters used one of the stereotypical tactics of deniers (not “blueberry” deniers now, but the anthropogenic climate change variety). This tactic is that of cherry-picking scientific papers and misrepresenting their conclusions OUT-OF-CONTEXT to support denial claims. Deniers do this with Esper et al as well as various other papers. There’s been one on this thread with Holgate. That is all.
We have seen a lot of other underhanded tactics (that INCLUDES changing the text within a quotation of Esper in order to support a claim… and OTHERS have pointed that out before The Collective even was here).
As yet we have not seen a single “denier” provide a rebuttal without resorting to disparaging the character of those that point out the flaws in their “arguments”.
Nope. Emasculated was in reference to the retreat AFTER the alteration of Esper’s conclusion was pointed out and eventually deleted by the mods. Emasculation is often demonstrated by indignant reaction, retreats to personal attacks and circular arguments. We will let people independently judge that.
Msg 309…
Another example of this hypocrisy is seen in this message I'm responding to. Note the many times he responds to a quote from one of my posts with topics not even discussed by me in that quote. Like when he quotes from my message 298 ("As far as sea level goes..."). Note what he says first after the quote. Nowhere do I make any reference there that climate science is "alchemy."
False claims of “hypocrisy” again?
LoL. Just what part of “suggesting that the science is alchemy” (Yes, that is what The Collective wrote) does one pretend not to understand. You clearly “suggested” that science is unscientific by implying that there is so much discrepancy in estimates that correlation is sketchy. What? Are you going to say you didn’t say the word “correlation” now? Talk about clutching at straws! You make VERY clear references that climate science is hardly science.
Msg 309…
As has been this poster's M.O., he makes the vague, unsupported charge that "deniers" misrepresent the science and challenges those of us who have grave doubts of this notion of AGW to answer it, without even pointing what he's challenging us to answer.
Nope.
We do not make vague claims. This is just an attempt to suggest hypocrisy by parroting.
Every “claim” by The Collective has been carefully supported with links, bona fide quotations, or clear citation of refuting arguments. You can “deny” that too, but it’s pretty easy to see it in the surviving threads alone. LoL. The very post (304) you are trying to rebut has many of these links, quotes and citations.
Anyone can have all the “grave doubts” they want. That is the nature of free will. However, when people misrepresent science to be support for these “grave doubts”, it should and will be challenged.
Let’s see, in the last post alone…
We challenged the (mis)representation of Woppelman’s figures.
We challenged the motives and sincerity of Morner.
We challenged one to cite the average rate of sea level change in the past 6,000 years and how it compares to the past century.
We challenged the (mis)interpretation of data analyses to mean wholesale theory refutation.
We challenged the denial camps ability to steer clear of personal attack (yes, that is “personal” in respects to forum members and not that of denial heroes).
… but instead of answering these challenges, one only pretends that the challenges have not be issued.
Yes. Some are definitely “challenged”.
Msg 309…
On topic, as I've said many times here on this forum; no catastrophe caused by greenhouse gasses is in the offing, even one from the change in climate it's alleged to be causing. On here, I've demonstrated through peer-reviewed science that sea level rise isn't accelerating, meaning that the alarm raised on sea level rise should be silenced.
By couching the consequences as catastrophe, it conveniently introduces the opinion of what constitutes a catastrophe. One can always claim that the adverse effects climate change on amphibious species is not a catastrophe. One can even claim that climatic change rates have no effects on bio-diversity at all while demanding clear evidence of correlation. See how that works?
The truth is that there is a very clear correlation between mean global temperature perturbations and the rise of the industrial age. There is also evidence that nature mechanisms are not prepared to deal with accelerated changes without plastic consequences.
Misinterpreting essays into data-handling techniques giving differently shaped curves to mean that there is no corresponding sea level rise from industrial contributions is non-sequitur and spurious. If the rise rate did not accelerate in the last two decades of the twentieth century, it has no bearing on whether or not the industrial age has accelerated the rate from pre-industrial rates.
The “alarm” is in how humans have done enough to have a notable impact on the climate of their planet.
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Try answering the challenges. Then again, after a year’s worth of deflection and ad nauseam and previously debunked denial junk, it is doubtful there will be such a resolution.
You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
310 (
view
)
Hmm... global warming by co2?
Posted: 12/11/2008 6:26:01 PM
R-o-F-L-A-m-O. What did The Collective say in post 302?
…Watch how the “defence” of this observation will be weak attempts to claim that The Collective “does the same” or more personal attacks spun from false accusation….
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Some Specific Answers…
Msg 305…
Ah, once more unto the breach, dear friends. Time once again to discuss the topic at hand, and point out the mistakes of the poster of that message.
Getting rather “Bard” of this?
As yet you have been unable to find any flaw in The Collective’s arguments.
You can always pretend that you have, as that is the practice of denial.
Msg 305…
His bolded paragraph makes the oblique accusation (and a false one) of making personal attacks based on falsehood, aimed obviously at me. But just what are those "personal attacks" based on "falsehood?" Let's find out.
Oblique it is not, nor is it false. The history here shows clearly intentional disparagement as the main focus of “rebuttals”. This is demonstrated in the repeated couching of things as “mistakes” on the part of the opposition rather than centering on the argument (one even states, “point out the mistakes OF THE POSTER”). Hence it is MORE important to try and show that the opponent makes mistakes, than the alleged mistakes themselves.
The aim is to expose the subterfuge behind pretending that there are “serious” flaws in climate science. The aim is to expose how some constantly misrepresent the science as a weak basis of providing “proof” of error. The aim is not “pointing out the mistakes of the poster” as that is really just a personal attack (especially when the “mistake” isn’t even a real one).
We are pretty sure most who do this, know the difference.
Msg 305…
He first quotes part of my post (#262), and declares that "refutation" is met by "deflection or selective cognition (and very often personal attack)." In reference to realclimate.org, I'd hardly call what I wrote "deflection" or "selective cognition." It is a fact that the funding of that site comes exactly from where I said (and the poster doesn't deny it), and the site (for those who've never bothered to look) is basically used by the scientists reporting on it to either offer commentary (by way of alerting readers) to studies supporting their view, or attempting to argue concerning studies that don't---and every time the pet graph of 2 of them comes under review, the site is used to either say "we're vindicated yet again," or "no, the study's got it wrong because..." Sounds exactly like what I said in that quote, that the 2 on the site that co-authored the hockey stick (Drs. Micheal Mann and Raymond Bradley---the 3rd co-author was Malcolm Hughes) spend their time defending the hockey stick and the hypothesis it supports.
Referencing outside of context again? That is ironically apropos.
This is the classic disambiguation we are talking about. The comment was about how any challenge is always met with coy misrepresentation of what is being criticized (yep… you can reread the post and see that). In this case it is a deliberate focus on “realclimate.org” as if that is the ONLY thing that some have referred to as “proof” of fallacy in climate science.
Comments on papers that you quoted (such as Holgate) are selectively ignored by stating that some OTHER paper wasn’t addressed… like THAT isn’t selective cognition. What should be recognized is that YOU quoted Holgate as proof. After the fallacies were shown, the paper that wasn’t addressed is now the focus (what? Because it is newer?... never mind the fact that you quoted Holgate). Yep. That’s pretty deflective via selective cognition.
So… Nope.
The criticism that denier’s choose to selectively recognize details AND resort to deflection is absolutely demonstrated.
Msg 305…
He then brings up "cherry-picking" data or text, saying it's "not evidence." Well, folks, quoting the pertinent segments of a scientific paper (either data or concluding text) is hardly “cherry-picking." Yes, he and I've been over this, and will (evidently) go over it again. It is also "evidence" (as he calls it) supporting my point.
LoL. This is really a stretch.
Cherry-picking is ALL ABOUT purposely propping up pieces of conclusions or evidence outside of context and presenting it as if that is an honest and COMPREHENSIVE representation of the truth. Why do you think that we always hear the request for “the WHOLE truth and nothing BUT the truth” before a court of law? Coy defenses are all about telling half-truths. When pressed, coy defenders will deflect by introducing irrelevant information. What do we see as the typical denier’s defense? Exactly that. LoL.
Esper was butchered by first leaving out important key adjectives in quotation. When that was pointed out by another member, the perpetrator retreated. That perpetrator then reappeared, but this time, only quoted PARTS of Esper’s conclusion. We can go over this as many times as you like. It doesn’t change the fact that only quoting parts of a conclusion, or selected data series that conveniently support a notion is CHERRY PICKING.
Msg 305…
His next claim (all in the same paragraph!) is that "barring deflection, deniers will resort to direct personal flaming." As I pointed out in the first section, pointing out the truth could hardly be termed "flaming," that is unless this same poster considers himself above such a label for his attempt to say (in a now-deleted post) that Professor Bob Carter's positions are due to his funding by "big oil."
This is but another straw man. No one has suggested that “pointing out the truth” is flaming (of course pointing out “half” the truth is still cherry-picking).
What HAS been noted as the typical tactic of deniers is the constant need to put down the opponent over arguing the science. This is demonstrated when rebuttals are always in the form of “my opponent made this mistake or that mistake” rather than “this is the problem with the assertion”.
Some resort to name-calling. Some even enlist sycophants to post particularly juvenile insult-laced rants (these are “now-deleted” too).
Yes. Pointing out the fact that Bob Carter has been funded by big oil is NOT “flaming”. It is a truth that is RELEVANT to the discussion. It is common for deniers to decry any criticism of their heroes as most (if not all) of these heroes have very suspect motives, histories and affiliations. Why?
It is because barring the introduction of the background of such proponents allows anyone to be used to as “expert” reference.
As yet, deniers really haven’t had any legitimate source (that would be legitimate as in a clean record of conduct, or as in “honestly represented”). This is apparent, and that is why any criticism of these heroes is vehemently attacked.
Having two claims in the same paragraph? That is neither relevant nor even damaging to one’s argument. It only serves as yet another attempt to denigrate an opponent rather than focusing on the topic. That would be more in line with “flaming”. Can one still pretend to not see the difference?
The Collective does it’s best to avoid responding to repeated direct personal attacks. There is clear record of this. Yes. We are “Above such a label”. Nice try, but it is not valid.
Msg 305…
His next set of remarks comes in response to my post #258. In it, I commented on his rather odd claim of "discussing the science" and then proceeding to use 2 blatantly political sites. I then informed everyone of the editor's past remarks in the online blog of one of them, and invited him to disavow it. Let's see how he ansers this.
1) He says that "political asprirations are not considered (nor should they be). Only the logic to refute the junk science is necessary (original in bold)." The "logic" used still doesn't "refute" anything, it disputes it---which, incidentally for those who read this and don't know, is exactly what I do with this topic; and is the very definition of a skeptic, that I inform you that there is science (in the peer-reviewed literature) that disputes what this poster calls "the current understanding." There is very little about AGW that isn't in dispute.
The fact that the sites were used as a source to refute some denial heroes and NOT as a representation of apolitical web presence was already explained. Bringing this up again is just trying to rebuild a dismantled straw man. So… Nope.
ANYTHING can technically be “in dispute”. This is what the few but vocal deniers depend on.
They trust that the illusion of questions, will create a loss of legitimacy. The distinction that is overlooked is that merely “disputing” something doesn’t make a counterpoint valid. The counterpoint is evaluated on its merits. Once we see the motives behind the “dispute” (this is why the “big oil” connection is salient), it is often enough to be suspicious of the science behind it. Once we inspect the counterpoints “science” and find nothing but quackery or cherry-picking then we need not look further.
What do we
always
see from the denial camp? We see regurgitation of the half-truths from Astroturf sites. When challenged we see the personal attacks and deflection (yes, “personal” as in attacking the opponent online here). Any reference to the flaws pointed out in the denial arguments is refuted with basically, “it is too… so there!”
At this point, The Collective has to agree with the CoolNomad about unreadibility in that the rest of that paragraph is rather unclear as to what one’s position is on that issue. This is part of the “vague references” we were noting. In this way, if one gets criticized, they can always say, “I meant the opposite!” Anyways, that’s all been discussed before.
Msg 305…
The next major point brought up by the poster is that of a personal nature again, in reference to gristmill's editorial comments (that skeptics should be tried in a "climate Nuremburg"). Here, he defends it by stating his unaffiliated status with Gristmill, and invokes "Godwin's law."
Excuse us? We “defend
IT
”??? This is clearly a
false accusation
of a most vile kind. It only proves that all these “rebuttals” are largely attempts to “retaliate” because being shown to be wrong was taken personally. We defend our own actions but we neither defend nor have affiliation with the historical events brought forth by you.
Msg 305…
Basically, for those who don't have time to Google it, he's saying that I've "lost" my argument since I "invoked" a Nazi analogy. What he's referring to (read his quote above concerning "equating the term 'denier' with genocide") is this: I've pointed out to him several times that his use of the term "denier" to refer to skeptics is offensive, and why.
Nope. When one’s position is built on the false premises typical of climate change denial, there is little defense. Invoking Godwin’s law is just like trying to turn the discussion into a personal battle. It’s just deflection when deception fails.
As stated before, whether YOU personally win or lose an argument (or how apparently important that is to you) is irrelevant to the truths behind climate change. Employing obfuscating tactics like invoking a Godwin’s Law violation is evidence of self-realization of an indefensible position. However, the real issue here is how one is
ridiculously attempting
to falsely accuse one’s opponent of implying “genocide denial” with the mere use of the word “denial”.
Yes. You alone have introduced the convoluted connection to 1930’s politics (and continue to draw attention to it). If The Collective wished to call someone a “Krusty Burger denier” we would have said “Krusty Burger denier”. We haven’t mentioned “H” (an obscure connection at best). You have.
You are on your own on this.
Msg 305…
His next set of "answers" is in response to my post #256. In the first section, I pointed out his bad analogy (check his post #253 for that). It's bad analogy simply because it doesn't support the contention. Using that analogy, ghg's would need an initial forcing to amplify, which isn't the charge of advocates; that being that it's GHG's that are acting as a forcing on their own this time. To answer his point under this first quote of that post, historically (in those papers in the journals cited before), Co2 doesn't initially force a climate change, and in fact, doesn't even "amplify" it significantly. The charge of advocates is that 20th century climate warming occured primarily due to anthropogenic greenhouse emissions. Do, folks, note his taunting behavior below his challenge to "prove" the bad analogy.
ROFLMAO. What did The Collective say? Rebuttals will boil down to, “It is too… so there!”
Nope. No matter how many times one believes that a variable that follows cannot lead, it doesn’t make it true. Many variables, including GHG concentrations contribute to the mean global temperature. This is why that analogy is appropriate.
Taunting behaviour? Hardly. Taunting behaviour is demonstrated with innuendo like in Msg 248 of this thread…
Uh-oh, Dave (wvwaterfall), with the return of the borg, it's the end of the civil scientific discussion.
The Collective was merely using a play on words. It is difficult to view such a play on words as “taunting” (Just as “words on plays” are allowed latitude). What did The B0rg say about concentrating on denigrating the opponent rather than focusing on the topic?
Msg 305…
His next quote of message #256 is still on this point of gristmill's rebuttal to the fact that historical Co2 hasn't acted the way it would need to in order to prove it's role as a major climate forcing. As I've pointed out, gristmill makes the same argument that realclimate does: that being that, while true Co2 didn't initiate climate change, it did amplify it over the course of the millenia that it took to complete the rises in temperature. Yet the point doesn't take into account that the data in the cited papers doesn't support that contention: the temperatures didn't accelerate their way up when the co2 rose up, nor did they fall more slowly until Co2 levels fell back as well, which would have to be the case if the advocates' charge is proved true.
That HAS to be true in order for CO2 to be a contributor? Right… No matter. We trust that most people understand that the GHG effect is a forcing that contributes to warming regardless of what leads or follows in any particular scenario.
Msg 305…
His next quote of the same message (#256) contains his spurious argument that I "misrepresented" Dlugokencky's paper. Spurious? Yep. Dishonest? Well, go back to message #253 and see where he quotes my post to wvwaterfall ( #238) concerning Dlugokencky's remarks in a recent interview is where this blow-up began; yet out poster still makes the case that I "misrepresented" Dlugokencky's paper, because "that's not quite what Dlugokencky said in 2003 (and that would have been quite a feat of clairvoyance to state that about 2007 levels back in 2003)." To answer his other "point" about "misrepresentation," go back to message #233, and you'll see what point I was making that our poster is distorting. That being this: that the prediction was for methane levels to continue rising throughout the 21st century, and this is not the case. No misrepresentation here. The fact that SOME levelling off of methane levels MAY be due to some human agricultural efforts at mitigation doesn't change that fact, nor indicate any "misrepresentation" on my part.
Yep. One is only trying to deflect away from the transgression. It is still valid that Dlugokencky was MISREPRESENTED as we said in post 302…
The fallacy of misrepresenting Dlugokencky as promoting the decoupling of CH4 concentrations from anthropogenic causation is there in either case. Of course one may now claim that such a thing was not said, but alas, it was clearly implied. The truth is that Dlugokencky suggests a strong connection between the output of the FSU and CH4 levels. Here’s a link to the paper again:
http://www.phys.uu.nl/%7Ehouwelng/PUBLICATIONS/2003GL018126.pdf
(The Collective maintains transparency and easy reference by providing
direct links
where possible)
Msg 305…
Now, you'll also note something in the next segment, where he again quotes from post #256. He says, "Khalil's studies in the recent past involve wholesale change in rice cultivation techniques in China, AND, how those techniques have a reduced CH4 footprint, don't you? We have no doubt that Khalil's papers would say that when viewed within this context." He's evidently one to charge me with "misrepresentation." Here, he makes a purely speculative comment in the most determined affirmative with no support for it whatsoever.
ROFL!
The Collective is so “misrepresentative” that we used our trans-warp technology to go back in time and have Khalil publish papers such as…
Measurements of methane emissions from rice fields in China.
M.A.K. Khalil, R.A. Rasmussen, M.J. Shearer, R.W. Dalluge, L.X. Ren, and C.-L. Duan, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D19): 25,181-25,210, 1998.
Emissions of methane, nitrous oxide, and other trace gases from rice fields in China.
M.A.K. Khalil, R.A. Rasmussen, M.J. Shearer, Z.-L. Chen, H. Yao, and Y. Jun, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D19): 25,241-25,250, 1998.
Heck, we are so “purely speculative” that we even re-programmed Khalil in the past so he would concentrate on exactly what The Collective said he was working on…
http://www.physics.pdx.edu/~aslamk/aslamk/
LoL… gotta try harder than that!
So much for the “no support whatsoever” bluff… anything else we need to go back in time for? The Battle of Agincourt?
Nope. Misrepresentation is clearly the exclusive domain of deniers.
Msg 305…
His next several segments cover items already adressed and refuted.
Nope.
None of the false notions presented by deniers (including the ones presented recently here) have stood up to even the most basic scrutiny.
We and many others have addressed and refuted the junk science presented by deniers. The only reason they come up again is that deniers believe that just repeating fallacy enough will give it traction. That is the whole concept behind propaganda.
Msg 305…
The whole point of this debate, folks, isn't what some here imply it is. As a skeptic, what I point out is that the entire topic isn't what advocates call it, "settled science." The science is still in serious dispute by science itself. I continue to point out that science is determining that the impacts of climate change (whatever the cause, which I think is much more due to natural causes than human greenhouse emissions) are likely to be minimal, and nowhere near the catastrophe that would necessitate the wholesale changes alarmists call for.
Nope.
The truth is that there is plenty of corroboration that supports the current climate model. The truth is that all these so-called challenges to the climate model are nearly always (if not always) cherry-picked or speciously misinterpreted information. The truth is that there are those that entangle their egos with the argument such that any refutation of what one reads and re-broadcasts from an Astroturf site is taken as a personal affront.
What some call “serious dispute” is really just the process of refinement (something that separates science from zealotry). This has been explained many times before. There isn’t a “serious dispute” like whether or not it is happening. It just how much it is happening.
Note that many deniers have now retreated from “there’s no notable anthropogenic contribution” to that of “there is one but even with it the overall changes are not like a Hollywood disaster”. Even so, this is just a straw man being propped up again since the no one is seriously promoting the Hollywood view of things (well… aside from Hollywood).
“Wholesale changes that alarmists call for”? This is a discussion on the science and not the politics or the whims of extremists. If people did not speciously bring up the same old routine of attempting to create doubt by cherry-picking scientific documents then “civil” discussion could actually occur.
Got some REAL new evidence? Sure. We should all have a look. Got the same old junk? Not so much.
.
.
.
R-o-F-L-A-m-O. What did The Collective say in post 302?
…Watch how the “defence” of this observation will be weak attempts to claim that The Collective “does the same” or more personal attacks spun from false accusation….
You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
304 (
view
)
Global Warming Real?
Posted: 11/20/2008 7:09:43 PM
Nope. This is just the usual ploy of suggesting a non-sequitur link between refining estimates and the cause of a departure from the natural cycle in climate. We’ve seen the misrepresentation in the past. As far as “difficult personalities”, that is essentially off topic and really a deflection from an inability to defend one’s position.
Feel one can defend it? Prove it. Defend this latest bit of subterfuge from the counterpoints presented here without resorting to denigrating the opposition’s character or deflecting with false accusations on “personality” rather than the topic at hand.
Successful defense does not include mere reiteration, false claims of “errors” on the part of the opposition (especially without direct, and in context quotation of said “errors”, vague references to passages within papers (which don’t really actually support one’s claims), or pretending that no rebuttal exists.
Discussion is entirely possible (and encouraged). Digressions into tactics like false accusations (yes, they are usually FALSE and it’s pretty easy to see that too) to justify subsequent name-calling and derogatory remarks (camouflaged or not) on those that point out illogic or downright fabrication were not “discussion”. As we have seen, these “I’ll just fire off a bunch of insults directly on those who show my logic to be false” posts only prove there is a real lack of substance.
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.
.
Some specific answers…
Msg 301…
If the figures used by Woppelmann and Berge-Nguyen are accurate, sea level rise in this century should tally between 5 and 8 inches, roughly about the rate that it's been rising for the last several centuries. Honestly, this is one alarm that needs to be turned off.
Woppelmann’s figures? “Geocentric sea-level trend estimates from GPS analyses at relevant tide gauges world-wide” Woppelmann? This paper basically addresses how GPS processing can now be used to correct the tide gauge records.
The conclusions even note a 1mm/yr contribution from land ice melt and a 0.4mm/yr one from thermal expansion. As far as the natural rate, the Geological records show a steady rise in the past 3,000 years of a much lower 0.1 to 0.2mm/year).
That is NOT roughly the rise in the centuries before industrialization. It’s an order of magnitude more.
People, read the “references” that astroturfing sites tout as support before thinking they tell the story astroturfers say it does. The truth in this case is that it really supports the current climate change model. Read it for yourself, here…
http://ff.org/centers/csspp/library/co2weekly/20070809/20070809_06.pdf
Msg 301…
Basically, all the alarms raised over the issue of climate change keep turning out to be false. Thermohaline slowdown, stronger and more frequent hurricanes, more frequent droughts, species extinctions, etc. All are seriously HUGE exaggerations or downright false alarms, as science is finding out. As all the alarms raised are basically nothing to worry about, this whole excercise should be an academic one, not one of primary political import.
Nope.
“Basically”, this is just another one of those specious misinterpretations of scientific studies.
In this case it’s looking at papers that are exploring why there is a discrepancy with actual tide gauge records and predicted levels. Woppelmann’s paper not only DOESN’T say sea level rise due to land ice melt and thermal expansion does not happens, it also makes it a point to directly and clearly state the amounts.
Are there huge exaggerations? Maybe by some alarmists there are, but not by the scientific community in general. The truth is that the rate of sea level rise after the industrial age began is SIGNIFICANTLY more than the rate the geological records shows in the past 3,000 years (which has been quite steady) or even the 3,000 before that.
Dr. Nils-Axel Morner? The “I believe in dowsing (water witching)” Morner? Sorry, but that is pure quackery…
http://www.edf.org/documents/3868_morner_exposed.pdf
Msg 298…
As far as sea-level goes, folks, the newest research that I know of indicates that sea level rise isn't accelerating, confirming what other papers have either bluntly said or at least hinted at---AGW doesn't cause sea level rise acceleration.
This is just the usual ploy of suggesting that the science is alchemy if it can be shown that absolutely precise predictions can’t be made with current models. It employs the non-sequitur tactic similar to “if the model can’t tell me the exact weather at 12 pm on January 15, 2033 over my backyard it is wrong. If it is wrong, then ALL of climate science is basically built on a false premise”.
The truth is that sea level change was quite stable for quite sometime, yet the past century of measurements have shown an increase from that steady state. Furthermore, the known rapid rises in the past, like the one that occurred for about half-a-millennium starting 14,200 years ago, point to meltwater from icecaps.
The suggestion that sea level rise is not accelerating is just a carefully out-of-context statement. For example, Holgate summarizes that based on a differing treatment of data the latter part of the twentieth century doesn’t necessarily show an increase in the rise rate. His conclusions, being:
“…Based on a selection of nine long, high quality tide gauge records, the mean rate of sea level rise over the period 1904–2003 was found to be 1.74 ± 0.16 mm/yr after correction for GIA using the ICE-4G model [Peltier, 2001] and for inverse barometer effects using HadSLP2 [Allan and Ansell, 2006]. The mean rate of rise was greater in the first half of this period than the latter half, though the difference in rates was not found to be significant. The use of a reduced number of high quality sea level records was found to be as suitable in this type of analysis as using a larger number of regionally averaged gauges.
[23] Finally, in extending the work of HW04 to cover the whole century, it is found that the high decadal rates of change in global mean sea level observed during the last 20 years of the record were not particularly unusual in the longer term context…”
(link here for the whole paper)
http://www.joelschwartz.com/pdfs/Holgate.pdf
Basically, Holgate is saying that the rate of increase over the past 100 years CAN be seen to be within statistical limits of a steady rise (as opposed to an increased rate towards the end of the century). That is ALL. There is no real suggestion that Anthropogenic climate change has not contributed to the increase of rate we are experiencing in the recent 150 years (as compared to the past millennium. The “longer term context” he refers to is the comparison between the last 20 years of the record as opposed to the last 100 years of the same.
Incidentally, this type of misconception often occurs when Astroturf references are passed along blindly.
Whether or not the rate is increasing does affect the prediction the mean sea level a century from now. However, this does not mean that meltwater and thermal expansion isn’t occurring due to a rise in the mean global temperature. It is happening. The matter is how much. IPCC’s predictions are conservative. Some mavericks say it will be a lot more and this becomes fuel for building all sorts of straw men to be beaten by the typical denial heroes.
Nice try, but once again, rather impotent.
Msg 298…
I could reference many more, Nova and Dave, but the facts contained in these seem obvious enough that sea levels aren't accelerating as they should if the hypothesis of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Warming (AGW) is correct. "Studies" calling for a 1M rise in sea levels by 2100 are quite far-fetched in light of these others.
Where does one arrive at “as they should”? The model that predicts global mean temperature predicts a range of increase that has been sufficiently corroborated in subsequent measurement. The rise in sea level can been seen as an extrapolation of that rise, but over a short period of 20 or 50 years (the whole contention that papers like Holgate 2007 explore) is “noisy” enough to accommodate all sorts of curve-fitting.
However, this does NOT mean that mean sea level isn’t responding to a mean temperature rise (thermal expansion and fresh water increase) by rising. Furthermore, that rise is notably more than the steady rate seen in the geological record for quite some time.
Msg 299…
That "overwhelming agreement" in the scientific community isn't supported by what's been showing up in the scientific journals over the past 2 or 3 years. This is where it counts. If there ever was such agreement, it's showing serious cracks as it stands now.
Climate change science is absolutely supported by what is showing up in scientific journals (including the past couple of years). Again, this last attempt at connecting the data analysis by the likes of Holgate to mean a “crack” in the foundation of climate science is disingenuous subterfuge. At best (meaning if the data-handling by Holgate is more appropriate than what it seeks to challenge), it only suggests a different rate of rise above the average steady state rise in the past centuries.
Papers like “On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century” are important in that they allow those that it criticizes to defend their findings. Apparently, it has been defended very well…
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/sci;317/5846/1866d
(LoL. The Collective can not be accused of not presenting BOTH sides of this data handling issue as we have now referenced, via direct link, both Holgate and those that have rebutted Holgate.)
Msg 299…
I've been pointing this out for some time on this forum, despite numerous difficult personalities making such discussion nearly impossible.
As usual, The Collective stays on topic. If the arguments encountered are unfounded or specious in nature, those arguments are attacked without mercy. We are B0rg.
If anything, it is the constant Ad nauseam denial propaganda and how it is defended with blatant personal attack that has made discussion difficult. All that happens (and the record clearly demonstrates this) is the reposting of the usual denial mythology. Once exposed as such, it is then “defended” with deliberate personal attacks on the critic rather than the subject. Furthermore, any so-called on-topic “rebuttal” usually boils down to “It is too! So there!”
Reference to the amiability of other’s personality is essentially off-topic unless it has relevance to the ideas or facts presented. As such, the record will clearly indicate who have resorted to personal attack, violation of Godwin’s law, false accusation (like incredibly linking the word “denier” to mean “holocaust denier”) and ridicule in attempts to silence their opposition. We leave it up to the viewers to identify these posters and make up there own minds on it.
We neither have intention to influence the personal development of deniers, nor is this the scope of this discussion. The Collective will continue to stay on topic.
Msg 299…
As a politico, I seriously doubt President-elect Obama will bother to objectively look at the science and see that it has far too numerous glaring flaws (just like those climate models you touted again) to act so hastily upon, such as what was done in the 1990's with the Kyoto treaty. With every passing month, more papers come out with more glaring errors on behalf of the AGW advocates, and even less reason for alarm over the subject.
As a politico in leadership role, he shouldn’t have to. These things are left to specialists with the right connections and experience. Numerous flaws? As yet, there have been NO fundamental flaws identified. People can pretend that they have uncovered show-stopping problems in the climate model that thousands of experts with bona fide climate science experience do not see, but that is highly unlikely. When that “discovery” is “proven” with the usual cherry-picked or misconstrued science of denial, then there is little likelihood of a new Copernican breakthrough.
With every passing month, we only see less and less outright declarations of refuting evidence.
Instead, we see a retreat to misrepresentation of analyses that are more on the shape of a curve, or the validity of a confidence interval etc… than a refutation of the general trend.
If one has REAL evidence, all parties viewing these threads are genuinely interested. If it’s the same old subterfuge followed by personal attack as a form of defense, it’s just bravado without substance.
If rebuttal has the typical “The poster of message xxx has made this error and that error” (always without clear indication as to how, since such “errors” are generally false accusations based on purposely vague interpretation), it already shows a deliberate focus on the messenger rather than the message.
Answer the challenge on the science, or how one has speciously MISREPRESENTED the science again.
If it’s just the same old “I’ll get you back!”, then it only proves that one is more defending a bruised ego (for having their illogic exposed) rather than impersonally defending the “science” (or their “interpretation” of it).
This is not a “personal” contest. The Collective did not create climate change or the climate change model (LoL Neither did Al Gore). The B0rg do not “need to be right” in order to feel good or superior to others. We are B0rg. We have no inferiority complex to compensate for. Present the argument and defend it. If the argument is junk, then it is junk. If it is correct, it DOES NOT need to be defended with personal attacks or deflection.
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.
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Discussion is entirely possible (and encouraged). Digressions into tactics like false accusations (yes, they are usually FALSE and it’s pretty easy to see that too) to justify subsequent name-calling and derogatory remarks (camouflaged or not) on those that point out illogic or downright fabrication were not “discussion”. As we have seen, these “I’ll just fire off a bunch of insults directly on those who show my logic to be false” posts only prove there is a real lack of substance.
You have engaged the B0rg.
“Resistance is Futile”
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
302 (
view
)
Hmm... global warming by co2?
Posted: 11/20/2008 7:05:25 PM
Gotta love it! Yet again resorting to personal attacks based on false accusations pretty much proves that one has little substance in their argument. Please answer the challenges. When accusing one’s opponent of “mistakes”, please quote the offending material IN CONTEXT. Reluctance to do so is poor camouflage for the inability to do so.
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Specific answers…
Msg 262…
I have been punching holes (ones you can drive a giant crane through) in the ridiculous "science" presented by those on realclimate.org. This isn't a neutral site presenting solid science, it's a politically motivated site funded by an organization that makes its money from alarmism. It's climatologists include 2 who authored the original (and now scientifically indefensible) "hockey stick graph," who now spend their time defending it and the hypothesis it supports. In fact, if you noticed, the discussion above concerning the lag of CO2 behind temperature directly exposes the weakness of realclimate's mealy-mouthed answer to the problem.
Deniers have yet to punch any holes in any of the current science. Notice how any refutation is met with either deflection or selective cognition (and very often personal attack). Cherry picking data or text from papers is NOT evidence (we have gone over this many, many times). Barring deflection, deniers will resort to direct personal flaming in attempting to discourage any criticism. No one is forcing them degenerate to such tactics. (LoL. There are no anthropogenic forcings for that!) However, that they do stoop to that level is indication of indefensibility. Watch how the “defence” of this observation will be weak attempts to claim that The Collective “does the same” or more personal attacks spun from false accusation. The record shows that The Collective does not and takes every precaution to avoid it.
Also, there is comparatively little time spent on the defence of “the hockey stick” or the hypothesis by climate scientists. One only has to understand a multivariable system. This is an individual accomplishment and it is not the onus of climate scientists or anyone else to convince those who refuse to accept that.
Msg 258…
Another curious note concerning message 253: for someone who claims to simply "discuss the science, not the politics," I find it odd that this same poster uses 2 blatantly political sites to "refute" the skeptics. In fact, one editor of one of them (Gristmill) advocated on the online blog that skeptics should be tried in a "climate Nuremburg" (his term, not mine). In fairness, the editor retracted that statement 3 weeks later, but the blatant advocacy of wrongdoing to skeptics was revealing. Let us hope that this poster doesn't hold this up as an ideal situation. He's invited to disavow that particular statement.
“Finding it odd” when this has been explained many times before is “odd” in itself (yes, you were in those discussions). LoL.
Nope. We’ve ALWAYS encouraged that people stick to the science. The referenced blog was for refutation of the typical (and expected) denier claims. The political aspirations are not considered (nor should they be).
ONLY the logic to refute the junk science is necessary
. Some will attempt to parallel this with how “Big Oil” funding shouldn’t matter either by this notion. However, no one is directly claiming “Big Oil funding causes Bad Science”. What they ARE saying is that Bad Science has a very curious correlation to Big Oil funding. There is a clear logical difference. Certainly The Collective could write something similar for each and every denial, but providing a link is just as good.
This distinction that references to debunk junk are ONLY required to be logical, and not to be misconstrued as a direct link to science has been put before you many times. The attempt to suggest hypocrisy (and therefore discredit your opponent) has again failed.
Nurnberg? That’s more of the irrelevant ploy. The B0rg is not affiliated with that site, and Godwin’s law still applies. You have tried this angle before (by disambiguating the term “denier” to mean something related to genocide) and have been told that we are not interested in such specious exaggerations (that includes cherry-pickings from retracted past comments from bloggers).
Msg 256
In the poster's first response to my post (numbered 252), a bad analogy is used. What is ignored, both by the poster and by the "scientific" responses on the advocating sites linked, are the two OTHER points that constantly go unheeded. The analogy, basically saying that we "know" CO2 is a variable that can act as both initial forcing and feedback mechanism, ignores the observation found in the data that temperature (representing climate) continues on its merry way, evidently without much effect from CO2.
RoFl. Actually it was a pretty accurate and apropos analogy (but everyone is entitled to their opinion). The analogy describes how one variable’s interaction can be affected by the instantaneous value of another one. All the “smoke and mirrors” doesn’t hide the fact that one only chooses to ignore this (or perhaps cannot grasp the concept behind multivariable dependent systems).
Whether or not CO2 can lead or follow IS the whole point to the analogy. Unless you have “proof” that it does not do one or the other or both, and you have yet to provide such evidence (NO. Cherry-picked data without understanding the nature of interdependency is NOT evidence), the analogy is good.
Feel free to explain HOW it was a “bad analogy” (circular arguments not included), else it is merely an unsupported “opinion”.
(Oh and rebuttals like “oh, you aren’t open-minded”, or “you don’t get it” are Cop-outs).
Msg 256
What this poster's sites (and the poster himself) does not adress is the fact that CO2 rise didn't cause any significant acceleration (in some cases, it slowed) in temperature rise. The other fact, more importantly, is also unadressed; being that when the warming was over, temperatures dropped for another 1,000 years (approximately) while CO2 continued on its merry way up the scale. Failure to adress these flaws (and the answer to the other point is also only speculative) represent a major failure to refute the point.
“Major Failure”? LoL. Nope. More like “Colonel” of truth marching aside General Success. LoL. The Specious claim has been totally refuted. Read the provided link. Here it is again…
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/12/22/231145/76
Msg 256
In response to my post, numbered 238, I will point out that I wasn't referencing Dlugokencky's 2003 paper, I was referencing his statement made recently in an article in Dave's post (#234). He was commenting on the recent spike in atmospheric methane levels measured in 2007 after nearly 10 years of flat methane levels.
The fallacy of misrepresenting Dlugokencky as promoting the decoupling of CH4 concentrations from anthropogenic causation is there in either case. Of course one may now claim that such a thing was not said, but alas, it was clearly implied. The truth is that Dlugokencky suggests a strong connection between the output of the FSU and CH4 levels. Here’s a link to the paper again:
http://www.phys.uu.nl/%7Ehouwelng/PUBLICATIONS/2003GL018126.pdf
(The Collective maintains transparency and easy reference by providing
direct links
where possible)
Msg 256
During this poster's discussion of my post (#233) on atmospheric methane, I am rather struck by the failure to adress points made in Khalil et al. (cited in that post). In that paper, Khalil makes the point that methane levels have been rising at slower rates since the beginning of measurements; and the abstract even points out that certain events cause a spike of 10 ppb (parts per billion) or more every 7 or 8 years, just like the 2007 spike, then fall back. The graph in the paper shows yearly fluctuations (up and down), but a relatively flat trend since 1998. This is not in keeping with the predictions shown in the IPCC's TAR, which are also representative of the advocating position. In their conclusion, Khalil et al. tell us, "it is questionable whether human activities can cause methane concentrations to increase greatly in the future."
RoFl. “Failure to address?” We already mentioned that the “final nail” was specious since the recent “levelling” of CH4 was linked to the reduction in anthropogenic contributions. So… nope. It WAS addressed.
You do realize that Khalil’s studies in the recent past involve things like the wholesale change in rice cultivation techniques in China, AND, how those techniques have a reduced CH4 footprint, don’t you? We have no doubt that Khalil’s papers would say that when viewed within this context. With a wholesale reduction of such anthropogenic inputs, it certainly does mean any notable increase of CH4 in the future would have be from other sources (perhaps melting ice sheets). Just what is one arguing against?
Besides, we have already mentioned that there is little interest in going through every single cited paper just to show how comments from them are taken totally out of context. To do so is to allow deniers to bog down critics in a mountain of work. Why would anyone do that, when, it’s easy to prove misrepresentation with a few examples? Remember that term “statistical significance”?
Msg 256
During this discussion, the poster also quotes two of the papers I've cited, and makes the thinly veiled accusation of misrepresenting the papers.
Nope. No thinly veiled accusation at all, but a CLEAR statement of fact based on carefully presented observation. Feel free to re-read the previous post by The B0rg on this. Incidentally, accusing (and falsely at that) is like calling an analogy a bad one… yet not explaining why outside of a circular argument.
Msg 256
Note that both papers make the same conclusion concerning the trend that I reported. The Simpson quote included some speculation, but agreed on the point of the trend. The Dlugokencky paper agrees also on the trend, although it comes to conclude possible reasons that seem at odds with the more recent Khalil research. Obviously, I'm not making any misrepresentation at all. I'm citing more recent research concerning methane concentrations, rather than the speculation and seemingly mistaken conclusions of prior research.
Nope. The misrepresentation is not in stating that a “levelling” of the record occurred. No one is refuting that. This is just a straw man to speciously defend the first straw man. The misrepresentation was OBVIOUSLY in implying that Simpson and Dlugokencky’s observations were supporting this false claim (from your message 233)…
According to alarmists, the melting of icesheets at the poles will release long-sequestered methane, which allegedly is happening and should have continued, which also should have accelerated the effect of greenhouse forcing. But, as this data has proven this basic assumption incorrect, would it not stand to reason that the entire certainty concerning greenhouse effects on climate be in error as well?
We’ve already gone over what Simpson and Dlugokencky ACTUALLY said in CONTEXT in our previous post. They do not go on about how that basic assumption is incorrect. There WAS clear misrepresentation.
Msg 256
One notable mistake this poster also makes here is the failure to note that atmospheric methane levels are measured in parts per BILLION, not million. The 2007 spike was about 12 ppb (parts per billion), well within the norm noted in the Khalil data. That's the equivalent of about 28 HUNDREDTHS of a part per million of CO2 (276 parts per billion, to be precise).
LoL! Yet another absolutely FALSE accusation.
You are accusing The Collective of not pointing out that atmospheric CH4 is measured in ppb. However, if one re-reads our post 253 (search for the phrase “Everyone’s got there own experience with it”) one will see, where required, CLEAR reference to ppb’s in the quote that preambles the comment. Furthermore, we mention several PPM in respects to the 1.7 ppm that you noted. RoFl. Apparently, if one doesn’t read their OWN quoted words correctly, their opponent is making a “mistake”. Just where is the logic in that???
The outlandishness of this false accusation is deserving of a special award.
Msg 256
Nothing refuted here today. More to come.
ROFLMAO.
Everything WAS refuted.
More to come? No doubt. Deniers don’t even need to convince themselves that “nothing was refuted” in order to post the same junk science ad nauseam. We suspect that msg 256 was just trying to justify more junk in the minds of other readers. The Collective has hopes that most lurkers will see right through the typical subterfuge and false accusations.
Yet again resorting to personal attacks based on false accusations pretty much proves that one has little substance in their argument. Please answer the challenges. When accusing one’s opponent of “mistakes”, please quote the offending material IN CONTEXT. Reluctance to do so is poor camouflage for the inability to do so.
Be assured that deniers will be reminded of this statement should there be more personal attacks and deflections rather than answering the challenges.
You have Engaged the B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
231 (
view
)
Global Warming Real?
Posted: 10/24/2008 6:16:57 PM
Falsely accusing a “Trekkie” of not comprehending? Referring to the debunked “layers of paint” analogy AGAIN? Apparently it’s a “weekly” misinformation installment. What did The Collective just say in msg 215?
“If we see that from all this, some other posters pipe in with little but direct personal attacks (like making fun of user names, false accusations without direct or clear reference, etc…) along with the same old junk science (like referring to a debunked 1901 experiment), they will prove our point again that deniers are only promoting their agenda of misinformation and defend it by trying to bully any critic into silence.”
Some Specific Answers
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Msg 228…
The supposed bee aeronautical physics came from weight and wing area. The velocity of wing movement provides lift but its still not enough area to lift the weight by the wings traveling through the air. The reality is that the insect wings are working together to pull a pumped vacuum, not the velocity driven vacuum of an airfoil. Its an interesting discussion about closed minds more than actual physics. My point was specifically about the case of the bee forcing science to be open minded where the debate over CO2 and coincidental observed warming does not have a "flying bee" to force minds open.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/01/060111082100.htm
Nope. This is just an attempt to re-interpret the reason for bringing up the “bee shouldn’t be able to fly” urban myth. The original objective was to support the fallacy that scientists (particularly climate scientists) cannot think beyond the state of the science.
Here is the original reference to the “bee” in context…
…It has been said that a bee cannot "fly" according to aeronautical theory. It flies because it uses techniques not known until recently. When considering "green house gas" theory, we don't have the benefit of the bee flying in front of us to force a reconsideration of the theory…
The intent was clearly to suggest that science at large is fixated on previous knowledge and cannot fathom other approaches or solutions. This is not only unfounded, it is using an urban myth, the “aeronautics can’t explain the flying bee” that renders the analogy impotent.
Even if the “bee story” was relevant, one is essentially criticizing the idea of CO2 GHG effect ONLY on it being around longer (and NOT on the merits of it having FAR more corroboration than the typical junk theory). The fallacy in this is obvious. Unless there are alternate explanations that have at least the same of amount of corroboration as the CO2 GHG effect, any other “theory” is relatively unsound and essentially supposition. By that, they are far more “coincidental” than the current model.
This has been pointed out numerous times.
Until one can offer rationalization beyond just being an alternate theory, there is little credence shy of intentional contrarianism.
The “bee” never “forced” minds to open. The minds were never closed.
Also it is a straw man argument since its just folklore that aeronautic theory was flawed, incorrectly applied or as incomplete as suggested. The truth is that no one believed that a bee flew by the same methods as a fixed wing aircraft or that it uses its wing to propel itself in the exact same way a propeller does. If anything, fundamentalism is more a description of those who are UNWILLING to admit that using an isobaric model of an atmosphere (that would be the “layers of paint” analogy) to refute the GHG effect is specious.
Msg 228…
I don't doubt global warming and even that man contributes some but where I have issue is CO2 as the cause. For the most part, CO2 is completely transparent to IR radiated from the surface except for a few select and narrow wavelengths based on its chemical bonds. These wavelengths are completely absorbed yet re-radiated in a few tens of feet of the atmosphere. This means the entire effect of CO2 is well past saturation and adding more CO2 makes almost no difference. It's like coats of paint of the same color.
One states they have no doubt of climate change, and that there are notable anthropogenic contributions, YET one resorts to broadcasting the typical denial subterfuge half-truths (like CO2 was much higher in the past, but life thrived, the atmosphere is “saturated” at the specific IR bands, etc…). Why promote these misleading bits of information? These half-truths are meant to cast doubt in the mind of the neophyte. This is what “astroturfing” entities like OISM specialize in.
Real skepticism is doesn’t have to resort to carefully couched wording to create mystery where there really isn’t. DENIAL is all about that.
Speaking of “chanting”… Msg 228 is part of the very campaign of AD NAUSEAM misinformation we have noted as evidenced by the record…
http://forums.plentyoffish.com/9117203datingPostpage10.aspx
August 16, (Hmm… global warming by co2, Msg 232), “…More CO2 is more like coats of the same color of paint…”
August 21, (Hmm… global warming by co2, Msg 235), “…Added CO2 is more like coats of paint of the same color…”
August 29, (Hmm… global warming by co2, Msg 266), “…More CO2 is like more coats of paint of the same color…”
September 2, (Hmm… global warming by co2, Msg 289), “…As I said, its more like coats of paint of the same color…”
…and as it has been explained MANY TIMES already…
The fallacy of assuming a relatively uniform temperature and pressure gradient in the atmosphere (and one DOES when they compare it to “layers of paint”) is well known. This is the SAME fallacy of the 1901 experiment used to “refute” the GHG effect. It was wrong then. It is wrong now. It was wrong the first ten times (and that is a modest estimate) you mentioned it. It will be wrong no matter how many times people repeat this subterfuge online.
...yet some continue to post up the
same fallaciously based pseudo-science
as if they have not been refuted…
http://forums.plentyoffish.com/10593991datingPostpage8.aspx
September 22, (Global Warming Real? Msg 176), “…The CO2 level is well saturated. It like more coats of paint…”
September 29, (Global Warming Real? Msg 211), “…More CO2 is like thicker paint, not thicker blankets…”
October 6, (Global Warming Real? Msg 228), “…It's like coats of paint of the same color….”
Considering the source is likely to be (or was that “BEE”) fully aware of the refutation, most observers will highly doubt that it is science at large that is “closed-minded”.
Msg 228…
On the other hand, high atmosphere CO2 sharing heat from the atmosphere and will radiate IR as a result of its IR fingerprint. It is capable of actually cooling the upper atmosphere by radiating into space where nitrogen and oxygen can't. Water does the same thing only it has hydrogen bonds and phase changes in the atmosphere causing it to precipitate into clouds that both radiate their heat and reflect IR back to the surface. The complex nature of the hydrogen bonds cause it to have a far more complex spectrum of IR absorption/radiation.
RoFl. This is just an attempt to deflect the fact that one has been promoting the “CO2 has a slight cooling effect” fallacy. One deflects by “disambiguating the assertion”. This is by including all sorts of hereto unmentioned but mitigating conditions like restricting the comment to “the upper atmosphere”, deflecting to a discussion on bond angles, etc. Nope. One’s initial CONTEXT was that the existence of CO2 in an atmosphere will have a slight cooling effect over all.
The junk “theory” ignores the random direction of radiation and how the absence of a GHG will mean the radiation is not intercepted to begin with. Readers can easily peruse all the previous posts regarding this and see that this is an accurate assessment. Nice try.
Properties of molecular bonds, modes of vibration, etc… While all part of the mechanics, they are really used here as deflections to promote a straw man argument. No one is arguing against CO2 radiating captured energy into space, or, that H20 vapour is insignificant at the top of the troposphere, etc. If one is implying that proponents of the current science have, please cite these transgressions, or be again, called for intentional false accusation.
The FUNDAMENTAL FLAW in the “CO2 has a slight cooling effect” theory was in suggesting that the presence of a GHG had a cooling effect relative to an atmosphere WITHOUT the GHG. That was a violation of basic physics, basic logic and it that has been already pointed out in detail.
Msg 228…
The resident treckie seems to have trouble comprehending this concept.
Really? The B0rg seems to have no trouble comprehending the concept of “using disambiguation to falsely mitigate fallacy” when it sees humans applying it. This is just a feeble attempt to retaliate via parroting (using the same aspect of criticism, but in reverse).
It doesn’t work.
The fundamental flaw was suggesting that retarded heat transfer is more efficient that non-retarded heat transfer. Bringing up aspects like the differing nature of CO2 and H2O molecules is just a diversion to salvage a loss.
One is only trying to confuse the casual observer about what was actually discussed. It is difficult to accuse one’s opposition of “not comprehending” what was effectively not part of the discussion (besides, differing properties of the molecules mentioned are merely details. We consider the whole system when comparing systems with GHG versus without GHG).
This is typical smoke screen thrown up by those retreating from absolutely indefensible positions.
Still with the retaliatory disparagement on those that have called out one’s false claims? What did The Collective say? We will see the usual peddling of fallacious “theory”, junk science, along with insults based on false accusations. Why? Because that is all that deniers do… promote misinformation and defend it by trying to bully critics into silence.
Nope. The Collective has been quite clear on the concepts (even the one’s some have conveniently just introduced in order to obfuscate their logical blunders). In contrast…
To be clear (again), the concepts that some are refusing to accept include…
…The atmosphere has a temperature and pressure gradient.
…A system WITH a GHG will have retarded energy dissipation when compared to a system WITHOUT it.
…Merely repeating fallacy does not convert it to truth.
…The cost of obvious selective cognition is that of sincerity (at the very least).
Msg 228…
CO2 is an essential ingredient for life on this planet as we know it. In the history of the life, much of the CO2 has been permanently sequestered by that life. Ancient life didn't incinerate, it thrived on accelerated plant growth and the accompanying production of stored chemical energy from sunlight. It was from the life abundant, CO2 rich past that get the fossil fuels.
LoL. Now that the “CO2 has slight cooling” has been debunked, AND that the “layers of paint” mythology has been again shown as fallacious, we see a retreat to some pretty pedestrian denial subterfuge. The “CO2 has a slight cooling effect” mythology was a better attempt.
In regards to the “there was more CO2 in the past” deflection…
This is why CONTEXT is so important to meaning (and essentially how one can use a lack of context to create a disambiguation). No one is arguing against CO2 being a critical part of the eco-system. We see this straw man of “CO2 is not pollution” in many misinformation campaigns.
Another disambiguation is the “ancient life did fine with elevated CO2” one. How this one works is that it ignores the fact that changes to a system at sustained rates far beyond natural ones have serious effects. Sure, life in the distant past thrived when the atmosphere had many times more CO2. Some ancient life also lived in shallow seas and had gills. Unless we expect vertebrate life to sprout gills (or retain their vestigial ones post partum) within several dozen generations the assertion that a rapid rise return to say Precambrian conditions is not an issue is nonsense. (Note: this shouldn’t be misconstrued to mean that sea-levels will rise to cover all land masses. The CONTEXT is that of how the rate of natural genetic changes in more complex life forms is much less than that required by unnatural environment changes).
There have been rapid changes to the atmosphere in the past too. However, all of these had dire consequences for the biosphere. Some are quick to quip that dinosaurs survived past some well known catastrophe. However, what they forget to mention is “what percentage of species (dinosaurs and others) DIDN’T make it past that catastrophe”. The facts around that are not so promising.
No one disagrees that an abundance of ancient life due to elevated CO2 led to fossil fuels. However, how is that relevant to the discussion of whether or not the CO2 GHG effect is as described by climate science? Don’t even try to say that because it creates useful things, it’s fine to accelerate the concentration of CO2. That is as non-sequitur as saying the comet collisions introduce H2O, and H2O is good for life… so let’s get a couple more collisions. RoFl.
Msg 228…
I'm not sure if variations in in solar heat output are as important to earth's atmospheric mean temperature as are its particulate emissions. Cloud formation requires particulate "seeding". Lower atmospheric clouds more likely come from earth sourced particulates while higher clouds from extraterrestrial, sun and otherwise. When these clouds form in relationship for the earths rotation determine if the atmosphere reflects high energy light from the sun thus cooling earth or forming at night and reflecting IR back to the surface and retaining heat. Slight variations in phase have a huge effect on the mean temperature.
It sure does, but no one is arguing that clouds don’t have both negative and positive feedbacks. The data indicates, just like the oceans, clouds have a stabilizing effect, but the mechanism is probably not good at dealing with accelerated inputs (much like the oceans), nor is it elastic through a great range of CO2 inputs.
None of this diminishes from the knowledge that CO2 GHG has its own effect.
Msg 228…
One can rant endlessly about observed coincidences but they are still coincidences, not proof of some direct forcing mechanism. When the same coincidences can be explained by other mechanisms, it should be obvious that continuing the closed minded chanting has a negative impact on the progress of knowledge and real progress.
Ranting endlessly? The Collective is only pointing out the obvious flaws in the misinformation and it is that SAME misinformation seems to be posted “endlessly”. LoL. In fact, from the number of posts in the last couple of threads (better yet, the last couple of years) from the same posters “chanting” the same debunked denial rhetoric, The B0rg has every confidence that readers can decide who has been doing the “ranting”. LoL.
The whole “coincidence” deception has been dismantled as many times as some have set it up.
Basically when things have been sufficiently corroborated by observation, the odds of coincidence dwindles (much like the odds of truthfulness dwindles when people are caught repeating fallacy).
Unlike alternate theories, the CO2 one has a great deal of evidence that supports it. Some have this disingenuous notion that ANY “theory”, regardless of any body of evidence (or a lack there of), is equally valid in explanation. Heck. Why stop there. Let’s blame it on re-runs of Happy Days and suggest that it has just as much foundation as that of CO2 GHG effect because EVERYTHING is coincidence.
“Explained by other mechanisms” purposely ignores the obvious inequality of a cause-and-effect with far less corroboration when compared to a cause-and-effect that has it.
This has already been explained DIRECTLY to those who have peddled this deception on numerous occasions. To pretend one hasn’t been aware of this is clearly an act of denial.
Closed-minded chanting? We also leave it up to the readers to decide who has been doing that too. We are sure there are those that will speciously say it is The Collective, but the cost of such falsehood is also that of trustworthiness.
Regardless, disparagement and stereotypical denial junk are poor substitutes for real argument. Now that the “CO2 slight cooling effect” has been debunked for the eleventy-eighth time, that’s all we see.
Msg 228…
The bee flies on.
It is ironically appropriate that one ends their latest “chant” with a reference to such a debunked urban myth.
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Falsely accusing a “Trekkie” of not comprehending? Referring to the debunked “layers of paint” analogy AGAIN? Apparently it’s a “weekly” misinformation installment. What did The Collective just say in msg 215?
“If we see that from all this, some other posters pipe in with little but direct personal attacks (like making fun of user names, false accusations without direct or clear reference, etc…) along with the same old junk science (like referring to a debunked 1901 experiment), they will prove our point again that deniers are only promoting their agenda of misinformation and defend it by trying to bully any critic into silence.”
You have engaged the B0rg.
“Resistance is Futile”
(What will we see? We’ll see the regular re-run installment of the debunked “layers of paint” misrepresentation, personal attacks like false accusations and parroting “No… its YOU that doesn’t comprehend…”, deflections into aspects that are moot, etc… we won’t see ANY real foundation for skepticism as we haven’t in ALL of the past threads).
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
215 (
view
)
Global Warming Real?
Posted: 9/30/2008 5:59:37 PM
Nova,
When people use their “credentials” as support for their arguments (and we have seen this… though not from The Collective), it is appropriate to ask for clarity in the form of accreditation to evaluate their “opinion”. So this VALID request remains curiously evaded. Why is that?
Depending on its composition, an atmosphere can inhibit the transfer of heat from the surface (including the oceans) to outer space. This IS the premise behind GHGs.
No one has disputed the notion that the Sun IS the source of energy, or that the oceans play a large part in determining the mean global temperature.
We look forward to what NEW and REAL evidence anyone can find that reinforces or refutes the current theory… so Google away!
If we see that from all this, some other posters pipe in with little but direct personal attacks (like making fun of user names, false accusations without direct or clear reference, etc…) along with the same old junk science (like referring to a debunked 1901 experiment), they will prove our point again that deniers are only promoting their agenda of disinformation and defend it by trying to bully any critic into silence.
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Some specific answers…
Msg 212…
As for academia and research, they often go hand in hand.
I whole-heartedly agree with this and was wondering why anyone would question someone who stated that they are part of the two in their professional life.
Here is a good example of how one uses their credentials as support…
(We have currently suppressed the thread and msg number)…
“…As an engineer working with patented analysis algorithms in the EM spectrum, of which IR is part. I would argue I have a lot more understanding of the spectrum than a climatologist in understanding energy within the EM spectrum…”
When someone waves their credentials around as support for their argument, and simultaneously presents arguments too fallacious to originate from such a level of familiarity, the question of authenticity arises.
This boasting of accreditation has been done on far more than a single occasion and has been initially unsolicited (a quick search on this thread and all the other climate science threads will show much evidence of this). This indicates a clear intent to intimidate to deter challenge (although this has largely failed). Note that NO ONE is saying the boasts are false (so the straw man of “Are you calling me a liar?” doesn’t need to be propped up and beaten).
If a poster, who becomes reluctant to divulge their own credentials as PUBLICLY as they have been using them as a foundation, has also asked for “credentials” from those that have challenged his or her “logic” and “understanding” of the science at hand, it raises some questions. No one is FORCING anyone to parade his or her credentials about, but if someone uses it as support (A quick search will reveal if any posters do this) then it is fair game to ask for such credentials to be displayed in the same way.
In contrast, if the critics of such a poster rarely or never uses credentials as support for argument and instead rely on the merit of their arguments themselves, such verification is not required of these critics.
This is why proof of accreditation is NOT relevant to the critics but absolutely relevant to that of posters who wave their resumes about.
If someone proudly calls himself or herself an expert motorist, yet can’t even manoeuvre out of a parking stall… does not the question of validity arise? THAT is why.
Even if this APPROPRIATE request for credentials remains curiously evaded, the fact that counter theories like, “CO2 actually has a slight cooling effect” are wholly erroneous, or that any rebuttal is usually just a tirade of name-calling and personal attack is sufficient to determine validity.
Msg 212…
Then I started to think whether warmer air, in itself, could really heat up oceans...Considering the depth of the oceans and the variability in air temperature, I'd have to say, probably not.
It’s all about a warmer mean global temperature. If the atmosphere effectively retards the transfer of heat, the oceans will be affected. You can guess which way they will be affected. (We are sure some will say, “a slight cooling effect”… ROFl).
Msg 212…
Everyone is quick to dismiss the solar scientists, but from a very simplistic point of view, it makes sense that an outside heat source is what's responsible for heating the oceans and not CO2 increases (which I agree would heat up our atmosphere according to traditional science)....And since oceans make up the majority of our planet in surface area (and problem volume, too), it would make sense that they would have a very large impact on weather systems.
The identity of the SOURCE of energy (the sun) has never been in contention.
If one is arguing that solar variability is accounting for the departure in the past 150 years, the record DOES NOT support such an argument. As far as the oceans having an effect… sure they do. However, that is analogous to saying that tires are a great contributor to how power is transmitted to the ground in an automobile, so we can ignore any problems with the transmission. The oceans and the atmosphere are all part of an energy containment and transfer system.
If one is arguing that changes in the ocean independent of the atmosphere is the cause of the departure, then we all need to see some evidence of correlation. Unfortunately merely suggesting a cause is far less substantiated than the CO2 theory since the latter has a body of corroboration. We are not asking that you personally prove it, but we are saying that criticism of the climate science applies to alternate theories too. There is research underway on the albedo effect and how much it contributes to the variation in global mean temperature. It certainly has some interest (far more than crackpot theories based on pseudo-science).
Msg 212…
I'm just thinking out loud and haven't Googled anything on this this morning. When I do, if I find anything, I'll let you know.
“Thinking out loud”… yes… thoughts amongst The Collective are all heard out loud. Google away Nova! We are interested in what you find. Chances are EVERYONE is interested in new findings, but NO ONE is interested in the same old debunked junk (well, apparently at least everyone outside of those that post it).
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If we see that from all this, some other posters pipe in with little but direct personal attacks (like making fun of user names, false accusations without direct or clear reference, etc…) along with the same old junk science (like referring to a debunked 1901 experiment), they will prove our point again that deniers are only promoting their agenda of disinformation and defend it by trying to bully any critic into silence.
You have engaged the B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
(LoL… let’s see if it’s not just the same old personal attacks based on false premises or some debunked junk like “CO2 in the atmosphere is wave-band saturated” as a “rebuttal” from others)
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
298 (
view
)
Hmm... global warming by co2?
Posted: 9/4/2008 5:21:24 PM
Too EASY! Here the rebuttal for msg 289…
We have yet to see a direct and clear answer… just deflections into politics, efficiencies of mitigation plans, the nature of non-GHG constituents, etc… or other arguments (and the usual personal attack too).
The challenge was to explain in YOUR THEORY, how a system WITH a GHG could have a more efficient transfer of heat (therefore a lower ambient mean temperature) than that of a system WITHOUT a GHG. You have NOT answered this (again). Loosely tying in the “it’s because of the band saturated atmosphere” Misconception (a 1901 one dispelled in the 1940’s) is NOT answering the challenge.
Answer the questions (especially the one about the “slight cooling effect”), or prove again, by resorting to deflection and name-calling, that one is speciously being contrary, and showing that this “CO2 slightly cools theory” has little merit much less logical foundation.
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Specific Answers…
Msg 289…
Attention span problem Borg?
Yes. It IS quite possible that you may have an attention span problem. However, it isn’t relevant unless it is causing you to neglect basic physics and logic in trying to answer the challenge (or neglecting the challenge altogether).
The main problem is that you still have not answered the question and have only sought to avoid it with denigration and deflections (as predicted).
This shows again, that your theory is fallacious AND that continually parading it about as if no one has refuted it is typical of what deniers do.
Msg 289…
In the narrow lines of absorption of IR, CO2 in the atmosphere is way past saturation. As I said, its more like coats of paint of the same color. Everything the CO2 will absorb has been done in the first few tens of feet of the atmosphere. Increasing the concentration a factor of ten, say like it was in the ancient past when life thrived on this planet without incinerating, would not make a significant difference.
The challenge was to explain how a system WITH a GHG could have a more efficient transfer of heat (and therefore a lower ambient mean temperature) than that of a system WITHOUT a GHG. You have NOT answered this (again).
ROFLMAO. Are you for real?
The tired old “The CO2 in the atmosphere is already at saturation for the wavelengths that matter” MYTH?
We have ignored this before to give people the chance to distance themselves from such obviously flawed denial excuses. But, alright then, let’s tear a strip off of this smug “reason” too…
Firstly, this
deflection is based on a fallacy.
The amount of CO2 in lower altitudes can be as transmittance saturated as one desires, but that is not what matters in the GHG effect. Heck, one could maintain orders of magnitude higher of CO2 at that level and not make a difference to the mechanism. Why? It’s because it’s the thin layers that sit up on the top of the troposphere that lose the energy into space. Since CO2 mixes quite well in the atmosphere, an increase in CO2 will effectively increase the level at which the density is thin enough to allow emissions into space. A higher level translates to a lower transfer of energy.
Secondly, the atmosphere is NOT truly “saturated” with respects to absorption by CO2. That is a one of the typical myths using 1901 thinking. The atmosphere has a pressure and temperature gradient. The conditions and therefore how things interact at the lowest layers of the atmosphere is entirely different from the upper layers. This is the FUNDAMENTAL error in thinking.
This is why OVERSIMPLYING can create all sorts of wrong conclusions (including fallacious “slight cooling” due to CO2 theories).
Climate models as much as one wishes to malign them, already account for this. It was well understood and documented over half a century ago (Plass in 1956 IIRC).
The “layers of paint” idea? Sure CO2 in the atmosphere is opaque even over short distances at 14.99 um but that’s too simplistic a view. The atmosphere is not a single slab of pressure and temperature (essentially like layers of paint). It is a system that has to be considered along with it’s temperature and pressure gradient. So much for the “atmosphere is saturated with respects to absorption by CO2” MYTH. LoL.
You have not answered the challenge and now you have been called out on using another typical denier’s myth as an excuse (and it doesn’t even mitigate the problem with your “theory” even if it were so).
Msg 289…
As for the random direction of radiated heat in the form of photons, those same photons will be absorbed in other CO2 molecules and be radiated again. The net result is that the radiation of heat favors toward the coldest and away from the warmest much like walking by a window in winter.
Favours the colder region… sure that is not a problem. However, it is the fact that this is effectively a retention mechanism when compared to pure unabated radiation that is the wrinkle. Once again, explain how an INHIBITED system will have a COOLER mean temperature than an UNINHIBITED one. There is not MORE energy being re-emitted, and such a system cannot be any MORE efficient than pure uninhibited radiation when one considers the temperature and pressure gradient and randomization of direction.
Even if we want to simplify it to a basic level… say a level of walking by TWO windows in the winter... one with a coat of paint and one without. The coat of paint will radiate its captured heat outside too, but some will radiate back. So… nope,
you have not accounted for this basic flaw in your “theory”.
Msg 289…
Only a very small spot in space is occupied by the sun. The rest of space is extremely cold. The warm CO2 is a gas and increases convection by the small amount of heat it absorbs from is IR fingerprint.
No? Really? The sun occupies a small spot in space? Space is cold? Wow. Those are real nuggets of information. ROFLMAO. That is truly the reddest herring yet. Perhaps an infrared herring? RofL.
Because of the presence of a GHG, radiation can be seen as essentially escaping into space from a higher altitude instead of directly from the surface. By the time CO2 reaches the edge of space, it has cooled from expansion and its emission rate is much less that of typical emissions at lower altitudes (much less direct radiation from the ground). Remember, that CO2 can’t have ANYMORE energy overall than what it absorbed from the earth’s surface (vicariously or directly), AND that is no more energy than the Earth WITHOUT the GHG. Raise the GHG concentration… raise the effective pure radiation “surface”, hence the GHG effect.
A fundamental oversight is neglecting the pressure temperature gradient of the atmosphere. If the atmosphere had a constant density with a distinct outer surface, GHG would have little effect (since it would radiate the same temperature at that outer surface as the earth’s surface). Less energy lost means more energy retained. Some of that energy remains in the atmosphere (and effectively “sticks around”).
That is why the “slight cooling” effect is nonsensical.
Your “theory” does not account for this, and that is why it fails.
(Didn’t Yoda says something like that? LoL)
Msg 289…
Water vapor has a much broader range of IR absorption. When the water forms clouds of water droplets and ice crystals, it reflects an even greater spectrum of IR. CO2 does not precipitate and reaches altitudes above the clouds where it radiates heat. Note how overnight temperatures drop less during times of cloud cover than during clear skies.
The H2O vapour ploy is one of the classic red herrings. H2O IR absorption… The basic flaw is in not understanding that it is BECAUSE it precipitates out of the atmosphere that makes it less important as the altitude rises. Water vapour concentration falls quickly with altitude. At the ceiling of the troposphere where GHG effect is pronounced, there is less H2O vapour than CO2 (yes there is). That is why H2O vapour is only 65% of the GHG effect even with all of the IR range and lower altitude concentration “advantages”.
That is why oversimplified knowledge is not enough to refute the GHG effect (and definitely not a foundation for alternate “theories”).
No deflections into albedo in attempt to refute this now…
Msg 289…
As for plate tectonics, there is direct evidence in a great many sciences to back up that theory.
The comment about plate tectonics was to refute your claim that failing the Nyquist criteria casts sufficient doubt on the current anthropogenic climate change contributions (perhaps you DO have a short attention span… or you are just trying to obfuscate the original premise of The Collective’s reason for paralleling plate tectonics).
At any rate, is it not curious that while plate tectonics is validated by corroboration from a “great many sciences”, anthropogenic climate change is not in your eyes?
The truth is that substantiation via independent paths will render demands for satisfaction of the Nyquist criteria moot. If it does for plate tectonics, it does for anthropogenic climate change contributions.
Msg 289…
When I discussed the ocean currents melting sea ice where the sea ice melt provides the heat sink to power the currents into the polar regions, I specifically mention geology as part of this physical engine and possible controllers of the flow. The channels for polar currents must be open or the freeze will restart. Once the ice "fuel" is depleted, the flow will slow or stop as well restarting a freeze cycle. The melt cycle reinforces itself leading to a geometric increase in melt rate. This is part of the so called proof of AGW.
The topic is atmospheric CO2.
Your claim was that CO2 has a slight cooling effect. That was proven to be wrong.
Are you now abandoning the “theory” and holding a position on another one?
Msg 289…
So did his theory prove out? Nope. It is not the gas in a green house. It is the glass. How many of your 17,000 bureaucrats and scientists know this? Why use a label that is wrong but supports a specific theory unless it purpose is to deceive?
Did Arrhenius’ theory hold? Certainly. No one has proven it to NOT be happening. In fact, though the critics in the early 1900’s based their dismissal on a simplistic lab experiment, subsequent studies in the 1940’s have shown that he was absolutely correct.
Yes, we are all aware of the difference between the GHG mechanism and how garden green house works. Why the moniker of Green house gas effect? Probably because the END RESULT of retaining heat was all Arrhenius was conveying. It’s a disambiguation to read anything more into it. Heck we call planets, “planets” yet by their very definition they are NOT “wanderers” even though they are observed to retrograde and hence earned that description.
We have already mentioned that this is merely MORE of the deflective ploy of arguing semantics.
The Collective’s 17,000? Nice attempt to confuse the audience on WHO is the denier. The Collective was commenting on the absurdity of the denier hero astroturfer OISM and its 17,000 so-called “experts” in their “petition”. This is just an obfuscation tactic. LoL.
Msg 289…
No matter how many ways you look at a coincidence, it's still a coincidence. When such things as sea ice melt is used as an example yet has another explanation, that is a coincidence. Assuming the increasing polar temperatures would begin to thaw tundra and allow its decay and thus CO2 release, is more than just a coincidence, it's an explanation for the elevated CO2 during warming periods.
This is just speciously IGNORING the comment in our previous post that essentially EVERYTHING is a coincidence. Corroboration by observation is one way of establishing a relationship between “coincidences”. With enough corroboration, a function can be formulated. No matter how many times one pretends that their arguments were not refuted, the record still shows it.
During past warming periods there is definitely corroboration with the theory that thawing permafrost may rapidly reintroduce CO2. However, this does NOT refute the theory that CO2 can lead such thawing as well as follow it. One can ignore that bit of logic too, but it is still true.
Msg 289…
you going to address my comments about the models and sampling theory?
So… does that mean you are abandoning your CO2 “cooling effect” theory, as well as the “atmosphere is saturated as far as CO2 is concerned” myth and focusing on other issues?
The notion that the presence of a GHG causes slight cooling has been shown to be erroneous. Furthermore, the postulate that the atmosphere is “saturated” as far as CO2 absorption bands are concerned has been shown to be functionally untrue.
Officially concede defeat and The Collective will address whatever else is relevant to the discussion. (Of course, one can just keep pretending that they haven’t been refuted and post false “theory” and myths ad nauseam).
Msg 289…
As for ending your posts with a quote from canceled TV show and your silence on any qualifications to argue physics or climate, it seems clear you are more grounded in fiction than reality.
That is absolutely irrelevant and non-sequitur in reasoning.
Your continued attempts to deflect via derogatory remarks only reflect on how indefensible your position has been.
Come on. Why would one need to resort to this type of harassing distraction if LOGIC was on their side? Has one any qualifications to argue physics or climate? One only had to refute your specious claims. As others have mentioned too, that only needed a rudimentary understanding of both and it is illogical to assume that one’s opponent has reached its level of competency doing so. LoL.
Msg 289…
The phrase "colluding and raising the price of oil." is pretty clear in addressing your emotions about oil companies. What about the millions Gore makes from AGW speeches and his movie while flying around in a private jet? Even that pales in comparison to the concept of carbon credit trading in which he is personally heavily invested. The oil companies, those not nationalized, are largely owned by pension funds etc. Their profit margin is smaller than most businesses. What is your investment in carbon credit trading? What is your stake in this debate?
Even taking that phrase OUT-OF-CONTEXT like you have, it is still unclear what that statement reveals regarding one’s “emotions” on oil companies.
You have been called to submit citation on your claims that scientists involved in climate change research are making large sums of money (as it IS YOUR assertion). We are waiting for this citation.
Gore is neither a scientist nor has he claimed to be one. As far as his “millions” in earnings, please cite this along with a comparison to major shareholders in the oil industry. Continuing to make these claims without clear evidence is merely biased hearsay (as we have already mentioned). It is also an attempt to deflect the topic,
The atmospheric CO2 GHG mechanism
into one of politics.
Please provide some form of third party citation on the comparative Return-on-Equity of oil companies (nationalized or not) as proof that their margins are smaller than most businesses. Until this is accomplished, your claims are, again, purely unsubstantiated opinion.
If this is avoided yet again, the likelihood that it is FALSE rises significantly.
The Collective’s investment in carbon credit trading (or lack there of) and its stake in this debate is irrelevant to the illogic of your claims.
This is just throwing up a smokescreen to avoid the question.
Msg 289…
For those who don't understand what carbon credit trading is, it is an artificial commodity that only exists on paper. Companies that release carbon, say your local power company or employer, will need to buy carbon credits from companies that don't. The customers pay the price so expect higher energy prices. In between, there are people like Gore who will make a profit from this trade. Do you think his profit margin will be more than the oil companies? He will be able to buy a whole fleet of jets. Its kind of like some TV preachers and their private jets who have thousands of devout followers. It's a religion.
Nope. It’s irrelevant to the SCIENCE of atmospheric CO2 GHG effect no matter how many times deniers like to bring up Gore like he’s a scientist and then proceed to bash him. This is the classic straw man.
Msg 289…
Conserving energy has its own merits to justify the effort. We don't need the corruption of government power forced on us.
No one needs more corrupt government (with the exception of those actively in that corrupt government),
however, that is not discussing the SCIENCE of atmospheric CO2 GHG effect.
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The challenge was to explain in YOUR THEORY, how a system WITH a GHG could have a more efficient transfer of heat (therefore a lower ambient mean temperature) than that of a system WITHOUT a GHG. You have NOT answered this (again). Loosely tying in the “it’s because of the band saturated atmosphere” Misconception (a 1901 one dispelled in the 1940’s) is NOT answering the challenge.
Answer the questions (especially the one about the “slight cooling effect”), or prove again, by resorting to deflection and name-calling, that one is speciously being contrary, and showing that this “CO2 slightly cools theory” has little merit much less logical foundation.
You have engaged the B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
(Deflection and personal insults instead of answering the specific questions or conceding defeat only proves The Collective’s assertion that there is a self-realization of indefensibility).
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
287 (
view
)
Hmm... global warming by co2?
Posted: 9/2/2008 12:51:21 PM
Well now…
As CoolNomad said in msg 273…
But you neglected to answer any of the other questions (actually ALL of the questions) opting instead to attack my arbitrary statement.
(Right on good sir. Excellent observation.)
It’s pretty apparent that some deniers will purposely AVOID answering direct questions ON THE TOPIC (that means one can’t deflect this by saying others aren’t answering requests pointed at them… we have, even the irrelevant ones). They will do so by attempts to REDIRECT the conversation into a flame-war (by falsely accusing, denigrating and name-calling any that question their “theories”). They will do so by pretending no one has asked any questions.
Coolnomad (msg 273) has also noticed that the “skeptic” who posted msg 257 has avoided answering SPECIFIC questions and instead chooses to focus attacks elsewhere (such as denigrating the challenger). This is the classic DIVERSION.
Don’t think one is just being contrary? Then answer this…
In your “theory” that atmospheric CO2 actually creates a cooling effect, how does one account for the emissions from CO2 molecules that are NOT towards space? In order for the presence of CO2 to have a “cooling effect” over and above NO presence of CO2, your model must mean that the CO2 transfers MORE heat away (or more quickly) from the earth than a relatively CO2 free atmosphere. Given a random distribution of orientation, there is just as much emission downward as in any other direction. Uninhibited, infrared frequencies that would be absorbed and re-emitted (in a random direction) would simply radiate into space. Inhibited, SOME of it will eventually make its way back down, or at the very least, stick around for a while longer). How is one accounting for a system with a slower process of heat emission (that of absorption and re-emission) to have a LOWER equilibrium temperature than a system without the inhibitor?
Being warmed by the sun at in a different range, the infrared radiation from the earth happens either way (there ISN’T any EXTRA radiation from the presence of a GHG), but somehow in your model, CO2 transfer more energy towards space than pure uninhibited radiation. Unlike the garden variety greenhouse, as we all agree, one cannot create an opening and allow energized atmosphere to escape. The GHG remains in the system and has a relative inhibiting effect on radiation escaping into space. Please explain how one’s model for “relative cooling” reverses this basic physics. Note also that any given parcel of atmosphere beneath a radiating molecule is not guaranteed to be warmer either.
ANSWER the questions INCLUDING the main one here, or, prove, as usual, that one is only speciously being contrary.
No resorting to asides about how “unthinking” challengers are, or making fun of their avatars now, or “go find the answer yourself” deflections (after all the main question is on YOUR special theory of absorption-emission)… ANSWER the challenge. (Or will we just get the usual deflections via personal attacks rife with false accusations and irrelevant asides)
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Specific answers…
Msg 257…
Again, I would ask Borg to try to refute a single aspect of the physics I have described that refute the concept of CO2 acting to warm the atmosphere. I have repeatedly described the physics in ways some have described as "high school" level yet with worlds like "insincere", at best Borg only insults.
Try? RoFl. Already did and succeeded. Reread the part about, “ignoring the RANDOM direction in which a molecule of CO2 will emit energy” (it’s been mentioned several times by The Collective). The notion that the presence of this GHG will actually have a slight cooling effect was based on this fundamental flaw. If one is as experienced in CO2 behaviour as one claims, then the assertion of insincerity is valid. To continue to pretend that one’s theory has not been dismantled (as it has in the past too) is also insincere. This is a statement built on observation. The Collective has no agenda or intention to “Insult”.
Yes, there was a fundamental refutation.
Please see the challenge in the pre-amble regarding “relative cooling”.
Oh… and don’t even try to obfuscate this by saying that the presence of CO2 collects more heat from the earth, or that the absorption and re-radiation of energy in random directions is a faster transport mode than pure uninhibited emission. The earth emits the same heat bandwidths with or without the GHG. The truth is a mechanism that inhibits the free radiation of heat, over and above other vehicles, will keep that heat around a little longer than a system void of that mechanism.
Basic physics. Basic logic. Any theory that ignores that basic physics is a basic failure. Basic enough?
Msg 257…
I have stated that coincidence is not cause and effect while a direct explanation of the physics is. The physics principals I have described indicate CO2 would have a slight cooling effect. Not a single aspect of this explanation has even been argued much less refuted. If any of those chanting the AGW dogma understand enough physics, please step forward. At best, the chanters cite papers that do nothing more than observe changes and assume coincidence is cause and effect. The authors of these papers usually have a financial stake in promoting the theory and getting published. One could just as easily argue the hot air from the AGW chanting has also coincidentally increased at the same time therefor it is responsible.
Coincidence? Essentially everything (yes everything) can be deemed a coincidence, but interdependency can be secured with enough corroboration. To claim illegitimacy based on even LESS significance than what one attempts to decry is illogical.
It is up to deniers to prove that the current science has not enough corroboration. However,
all we see is the usual misconstructions based on even less corroboration (the “cherry-pick”).
The “hot air” comment? Yes. Resorting to specious disparagement again we see.
Msg 257…
Even the term "green house gas" is deceptive and I would argue its use is meant to deceive. The term arose when the understanding of the physics indicated the gas in green house was responsible for its higher than ambient yet more modern analysis proves this is false. So why keep a false label?
The term was “hot house” back in Arrhenius’ day. It is doubtful that his intent was to deceive anybody about this. Why keep a misleading label? That’s a good question for those who like to call themselves “skeptics” when they clearly behave as deniers. At any rate,
this is merely the deflective tactic of arguing semantics.
Call it the green cheese effect if you wish. It doesn’t change the mechanism. Semantics are not really relevant when we consider that those involved in this discussion largely understand the difference between the GHG mechanism and the garden hot house one (if they didn’t, some have mentioned it enough times already LoL).
Msg 257…
The observed climate changes have occured many times in the past before human influence and can be expected again. Why now assume such changes are a result of evil oil companies? Because there is profit and political power to be gained. Simply look at the leaders of the AGW movement. Look at the income for the "scientists" promoting the theory.
The earth also didn’t exist when the sun was forming too (as it’s material was just part of a large accretion disk) and that fact is just as irrelevant. “Climate changes have occurred many times in the past” is one of the usual red herrings. Anthropogenic climate change is all about artificial and accelerated inputs into that system. One wouldn’t have to resort to this type of subterfuge if they really HAD a LOGICALLY SOUND alternate scientific explanation. Once again, this is not an “insult” but an obvious and important observation.
Evil Oil Companies? That’s just the exaggerated stance that forms another straw man argument. There’s even more profit to be gained (and quietly gained) by merely colluding and raising the price of oil. Claiming that proponents of science at large are banding together to create this elaborate hoax is beyond ludicrous.
As far as the income of scientists promoting the theory, please feel free to provide evidence of this lest this be deemed as nothing more than biased speculation.
Msg 257…
Borg's identity and qualification are not revealed and he has stated only a credentialed climatologist is qualified to discuss the climate changes. I don't agree yet borg himself has made no claims to be qualified under his own rules.
The Collective’s own rules? Please provide proof of such a set of rules, IN CONTEXT, or be officially cited for intentional defamation.
As far as credentials, The Collective, your own, or anybody else’s is irrelevant to the discussion UNLESS they are as a bona fide climate scientist. Such credentials would necessarily carry more weight than a poster that has it not. Misconstruing this to mean that “only a credentialed climate scientist is qualified” is disingenuous, a sign of poor comprehension, a bad grasp on logic or a combination thereof.
If one conveniently ignores the random direction in which a CO2 molecule emits its absorbed energy, or that a system that has inhibited radiation has a LOWER equilibrium ambient mean temperature than one without, any former credentials (patents, papers, science fair prizes) do not mitigate the logical flaw.
The merit of one’s argument is the measure of matter.
It’s bad enough already. It would be far worse for those bested by The B0rg if The Collective’s credentials were that of grade school drop out… although we suspect that some hope that it is.
Msg 257…
A climatologist is outside his field when he discusses the physics of CO2 and infrered light. A climatologist is a glorified weatherman and the models used for their AGW arguments are modified weather prediction programs. These programs are self-modifying statistical analysis programs that use past errors to refine their prediction accuracy through long term error feedback. There is no long term error feedback when discussing global changes whose cycles are well beyond recorded human history or even the fossil record of human existance.
Right… a climate scientist can ONLY understand climate studies. There must be some heavily enforced laws that prevent any climate scientist from gaining experience and knowledge on the physics of CO2 or infrared light. A couple of them tried to get some hands-on training once, but were ejected from the team once their climate-science membership cards were discovered. The “no climate scientists are to have practical experience in CO2 and infrared radiation” police are everywhere…
We’ve already gone over why the refinement of the predictive model does not mean that the basic premise is incorrect.
Msg 257…
Certainly not deployment of accurate instrumentation. In my instrumentation development, I specialize in time and frequency domain analysis algorithms. In that work, there are specific aspects of sampling theory such as the Nyquist criteria define the uncertainties of sampled data analysis.
As mentioned before, plate tectonics is another premise that has periods far greater than human existence. Are you claiming that they too are wrong based on failing the Nyquist criteria?
Msg 257…
What is being claimed as the proof of AGW is pure fiction. It is nothing more than speculation based on coincidence and anecdotal observations even if elaborate and well funded. To make claims the AGW is a real factor, one must demonstrate the direct physical principals to show cause and effect.
No. Pure fiction is like the “17,000 so-called scientists” that allegedly signed the OISM petition (is one going to disambiguate this to mean “accusing one of quoting OISM’s petition?). Pure fiction is conveniently ignoring the random direction in which CO2 emits absorbed energy in order to claim a “cooling effect” (reminder… such a mechanism ISN’T picking up any extra heat). Pure fiction is implying that The Collective resorts to “personal attack” when it is clearly The Collective’s opponents that degenerate to that level of “debate”.
But, corroborating data that supports anthropogenic climate change? That is inescapable fact.
Real peer-reviewed climate papers demonstrate adherence to physical law. Theories that suggest the presence of a gas that absorbs and emits energy in the atmosphere will lower the temperature of an atmosphere without said gas DOES NOT. If ANY energy is emitted downward, the system with the GHG will have a higher mean temperature equilibrium. Basic physics. Basic logic.
Msg 257…
I have shown such an analysis does the opposite. Where is the counter argument?
The counter arguments have been presented as many times as deniers have posted up the junk ad nauseam. To pretend that these refutations do not exist is just practicing denial.
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ANSWER the questions INCLUDING the main one here, or, prove, as usual, that one is only speciously being contrary.
No resorting to asides about how “unthinking” challengers are, or making fun of their avatars now, or “go find the answer yourself” deflections (after all the main question is on YOUR special theory of absorption-emission)… ANSWER the challenge. (Or will we just get the usual deflections via personal attacks rife with false accusations and irrelevant asides)
You have engage the B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
(LoL… and RELEVANT questions posed to deniers, are never answered succinctly)
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
122 (
view
)
Do tall guys intimidate?
Posted: 8/26/2008 7:18:59 PM
Yep.
Msg 120 is another succinct and intelligent post by the Silentman…
These “I love tall men” rallies are essentially THE SAME as “I will not consider short guys” postings.
The attribute is still height. It’s the same as saying I like to stand east of a lamppost and claim that the topic is NOT about not wishing to stand west of a lamppost. LoL. That lamppost is always right in front of 70 or 72 Inch Street too.
Irrationality is still irrationality. Bullying is still bullying. Shaming is still shaming. None are supportive arguments.
The interesting thing is to see that, once stripped of the thin veneer of rationalization, the reason why some choose to revere height to the point of exclusivity is very clear.
Ridicule, deflection, and lately trying to vote a thread to oblivion are the only options when some wish not to face the truth that the insecurity lays in the observer and not the observed.
^^^
That’s all one needs to read so any complaints that “oh… this post is too long” is just trying to denigrate due to an inability to logically refute the position that guys like Silent or JD present (and those guys aren’t even “short”).
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Specific answers…
Msg 112…
Ok I don't even like tall guys but you make me want to debate you. Silent Man goes on and on needlessly to justify all this ''reasoning'', when all it comes down to is preferences. Everyone has them.
Needlessly justify the reasoning? No. The truth is that advocates of height affinity justify their irrationality with the same old specious reasons instead of admitting that it is really rooted in a problem with self-image. This ubiquitous obfuscation on what is nearly always a REQUIREMENT as a “preference” is further proof that some active choose to deflect from the source of the issue.
Msg 112…
My preference is for someone near my height. Other women want tall guys. I dated a guy who was 5 ft 4 once with a huge block on his shoulder, but even he had a preference for ''tall'' women. He'd never dated anyone shorter than him. He also had a preference for '''white'' women. He was Latino.
Whether some random guy has a “preference” is not really relevant in discovering why the affinity to height (to the point of exclusion) exists in a notable number of women online. Other than to speciously suggest that men in general have a similar height restriction (and they don’t), it neither mitigates nor explains the phenomenon.
Msg 112…
So many guys tell me ''I prefere white women'' or ''I've always wanted a blonde''. "I'm a breats man." "I like Asian women, sorry."....."You're too big for me, I prefer a woman in shape.
I don't get all bent out of shape about it. It is what it is.
Herein lays contradiction. To come to yet another rally of the affinity for height (and an implied repugnance of those without it) and introduce the same censorship tactics of shaming… yet claim one is NOT “bent out of shape” is insincere. The agenda to repress the broadcast of some real truths is apparent.
Msg 112…
Hmm...men with preferences too? Imagine that.
This is just a straw man argument built on top of another straw man argument. Having preferences is a matter of fact. However, the issue is NOT whether one has or has no preference (or even a requirement for that matter).
The issue is how some individuals so revere height in a man (to the point of it becoming a restriction) and are so averse to having the reasons revealed that they will attempt to bully and ridicule others away from a conversation on it.
Msg 113…
We do get it now actually - in the past who could pay a mortgage and make a good father was more the direction the criteria went in for women. Now many take care of their own children and mortgages, so all women are doing now is choosing who they actually want rather than who can take care of them best. We didn't get it when men did it, but we learned that once we got to where men were where we didn't need them to survive, we could also be free to choose what we want, or not choose at all. Luckily, what women want varies greatly with each woman.
Sure. One’s personal desires (rational or otherwise) are always the goal. That is a truism. The constraints of paying the bills probably factored in much heavier in the past than it does now (at least in the first world). It is rare that one isn’t partial to having the mortgage paid by someone else, so women probably still consider the bread-winning abilities of potential mates. However, understanding it has always existed. People don’t become anymore aware their desires when certain constraints are reduced. One’s desire for good food may take second place when they are hungry and cash-poor, but the awareness of what they desire is always there.
As far as this being an argument towards the perversion of an affinity into exclusivity, IT FAILS. Also, the variance of what individual women want does not address this misplaced compensation. The issue around these “height threads” (be it “I love tall men” or “we don’t want to talk about short men”) is always “why can’t height restrictors admit that it is neither innate, random, nor anything to do with the short guy”… to the point that they need to bully, shame and ridicule to get OTHERS to stop talking about it.
Msg 113…
Men also taught us to shop around, and not to throw all our eggs in one basket - and it's not spite, it's being where men are and getting why they did what they did and really agreeing with the strategy. Yay men!
Nope. This is absolutely incorrect. Firstly, a restriction IS NOT about comparison shopping. Secondly, if anything, women have the monopoly on comparison shopping (or the whole shopping as a past time in general). Most importantly, if women actually understood the male selection process, the occurrence of these threads would be acutely reduced.
Yeah men, indeed. The Collective loves being a man.
Here’s an example…When it comes to selection, men are all about performance and not what BRAND a car is. If the Porsche is a better performer, they will get it over the Ferrari. If the Ferrari gets more tail, and if tail is that important, they will get the Ferrari. It doesn’t matter “how much the Ferrari cost”. It’s the performance. Now, if one only buys things to compete on cost or rareness… that would be just like why height requirements exist. It’s interesting to note that while we usually see men like that as utterly pretentious (and essentially compensating for a lowered self image) some don’t want height restrictors to be seen as such (even though they exhibit the VERY same behaviour).
Msg 113…
Yep, I am a woman who could care less what someone's requirement is - if he's into me, fine. If not, fine. I don't question that stuff; it is what it is. I look at it this way; if a man could date me but won't because of something like this - then that makes him a man I probably wouldn't be able to date for long anyway. *shrug* They become not my type in that sense, so what's the point of it being offensive to me? It's really not - a guy wants a woman shorter than me - may the force be with him, he should be able to go find it.
LoL. One claims to “NOT care less” on a personal issue (yes, that is the actual colloquialism… but no matter, The B0rg Isn’t the best at idioms either) yet cannot resist chiming in with ridicule and shaming on something as impersonal as the phenomenon of height restriction. Disingenuous it is (at least that’s how Yoda would say it… judge him by size hmm… Sorry, couldn’t resist a Star Wars reference).
Rationalization is a defense mechanism and no one is asking for such advice. As we have seen on these tall-short threads, that rationalization is overused to the point that even errant behaviour within oneself is “rationalized” and therefore promoted.
However, no amount of rationalization can make the irrational prejudice of lack-of-height aversion a rational one. Deflecting the issue with the “go find someone that likes you” dismissal is irrelevant (and condescending too).
Msg 113…
Not in my case, he's not - I know men who are turned on by thin blonds with large breasts; more power to em if that's what floats their boat. I sort of wouldn't be able to date those men anyway to be honest; but that's for another thread.
Again, it’s hard to believe that one truly feels that way when they can’t even allow others to discuss a topic without coming in to ridicule and shame. If people want to discuss the psychology behind height affinity or lack-of-height aversion, more power to them? See how that works both ways?
Incidentally, what’s this predilection with thinking that many men REQUIRE “large breasts” anyways? That’s just a minor innate affinity (something that height affinity isn’t) for swelled flesh completely perverted by Hollywood and Hefner. The truth is that it is RARE to find a men’s ad asking “ONLY large-breasted blonds need apply”. This is the kind of stereotype that suggests that many that revere height affinity are completely swayed by popular marketing to the point they believe MOST must be so affected.
Msg 113…
I'm willing to bet that the women who want to be "loved" for who they are and the ones who are clear about what they are attracted to are in different groups. I like what I like, and if I liked a guy who felt he couldn't date me because of the color of my eyes or skin or my chest size - I'd actually be ok with it - people like what they like.
If only people would practice what they preach. One claims to be “OK” with disbarment regardless of reason, yet consistent come back to attempt to refute those they disagree with. Can one truly NOT see the contradiction one’s actions has over their boasts?
Your ante is surrendered before any cards are dealt. The truth is that those who attempt to censor criticism are NOT even OK with the impersonal exposure of the truths behind “tall vs. short”.
Everyone is entitled be as irrational as they wish, but no one is entitled to silence criticism of it (well, maybe dictators in banana republics or military regimes… but that is another topic). If one isn’t even OK with that, it is hard to believe that one would be indifferent to negative experiences due to prejudice.
“I like what I like” is the classic (and impotent) circular argument.
Msg 113…
Nowthen, can we discuss tall men now? There are already 80 threads on short men - we don't need to discuss it here.
As it has been pointed out, discussing one end of an attribute is essentially discussing the other end of it too. As far as 80 threads, that is not so. Especially considering the last ditch resort by most censors is to vote off any thread that contains information THEY deem as not worthy of audience since they cannot logically refute it (talk about trying to impose ones will on others…)
The truth is that neither “I love tall guy” rallies, nor “what about short guys” threads need to exist in more than ONE instance each. If people didn’t come in to these threads with the agenda of censoring, and if they were honest to both themselves and others, these threads wouldn’t keep popping up.
“Like whatever you like”, “restrict whatever you want to restrict”, but don’t misinterpret those for meaning NO ONE ELSE is allowed to talk about the psychology of defense mechanisms like rationalization, projection, insolence and denial.
Now… who can avoid ridicule, ad hominem and specious logic in trying to justify this behaviour? So far there has not been much other than that. What was that? One doesn’t need to justify it? Right. You don’t… so why present the specious logic? What was that, no one should mention things that YOU don’t want to hear? Now… who is trying to alter the behaviour of others? The topic is about HEIGHT. Sure, it’s couched as “are tall guys intimidating” but that is just fishing for compliments from height chasers… the aversion to lack-of-height is TOTALLY on topic.
Don’t want 80 height threads? Don’t read them (much less post on them)… just how hard is that?
You have engaged the B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
(Yep.
Msg 120 is another succinct and intelligent post by the Silentman…
)
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
253 (
view
)
Hmm... global warming by co2?
Posted: 8/26/2008 6:50:12 PM
Here’s another handy link that pretty much covers all the ad nauseam false arguments that the denial mill keeps churning out. Nearly all of the current “new contrary observations” can be found in this link…
http://gristmill.grist.org/skeptics
Misinterpretations of papers STILL do not qualify as “evidence” for refutation (nor does using presentations of data an order of magnitude less significant that that which it attempts to refute… this is an important point when one thinks that citing science without context is somehow validly citing science… it isn’t).
The civility of these discussions is completely in the hands of those outside of The Collective, so any implication otherwise is wholly insincere and unsupported by both the current surviving posts and those that have been removed.
Why does this agenda exist? Here’s a handy read…
http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_manufacture_of_uncertainty
.
.
.
Some specific answers…
Msg 252...
Yet another scientific problem with the notion of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Warming is something I've discussed before, but many of the posts are now deleted.
LoL… and it has been debunked as many times too.
The “but CO2 lags” denial debunker…
Basically, this is ignoring the fact that although past cycles may (or may not) be driven by a factor, that factor (in this case, atmospheric CO2) CAN be a driver too. It’s like knowing that abrasion damages a coating and amplifies the effects of moisture damage… and then saying that moisture CANNOT initially damage a coating and therefore accelerate abrasion damage… See how that logic is flawed?
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/12/22/231145/76
Msg 238
In all fairness, though, Dave, you might check that quote from Dlugokencky in that article. In it, he says it's too soon to tell whether or not this is a return to the rising trend or some temporary spike.
No. That’s not quite what Dlugokencky said in 2003 (and it would have been quite a feat of clairvoyance to state that about 2007 levels back in 2003 too). Dlugkencky’s abstract mentioned…
“Based on current knowledge of the global methane budget and how it has changed with time, it is not possible to tell if the atmospheric methane burden has peaked, or if we are only observing a persistent, but temporary pause in its increase.”
That would indicate that he was (“was” as in 2003) wary that it would be hasty to interpret the plateau of the early 2000’s as an indication of a peak. That’s a little different from a position of thinking that some value 4 years in the future would be an outlier to a steady state. The conclusion reiterates this feeling with…
“…but our understanding is still not sufficient to tell if the prolonged pause in CH4 increase is temporary or permanent.”
The whole point is that contributions (or the lack there-of) from the FSU is likely significant.
What is interesting to note is that the FSU claimed a lot more of a reduction than estimated, so there is a good probability of more ice sheet contribution than the record shows.
Msg 233
Yet another problem for the advocating position is the fact that (as I've cited before on this thread) atmospheric methane levels have leveled off over the last decade or so (Dlugokencky et al., Khalil et al.). This is important because of the claim of advocates is that even if melting icesheets aren't raising sea levels (we'll get to that), it's still adding methane to the atmosphere as the ice melts, which will (allegedly) increase the greenhouse effect.
Nope. Melting sheets and permafrost likely adds Methane to the atmosphere. The problem arises if only a little warming causes a large release of clathrates. The amount of such acceleration has yet to be determined. Again, as far as the CH4 levels being the same for the past years… that’s likely due to a reduction in the emissions from the man-made sources (such as the FSU).
Msg 233
The reason that this is commonly said is the fact that (as a greenhouse gas) methane has the effect of 23 times as much co2. Although we're not commonly told the fact that atmospheric methane is measured in parts per billion, whereas co2 is measured in parts per million. Atmospheric co2 is currently (from the latest figures I've seen) around 382 ppm, where atmospheric methane is about 1.7 ppm (1,751 ppb, to be more precise, from Dlugokencky).
Everyone’s got there own experience with it, but as far as The Collective has seen, Methane and its relative impact compared to CO2 seem to be well publicized together. At 23 times the effectiveness, a rise of several ppm would be significant. Then again, we don’t have the extensive and massive ice sheets of 635 Million years ago, so, “results may vary… consult a physician”. Things are likely to not be as dramatic.
Msg 233
According to the IPCC's Third Assessment Report, the prediction was for atmospheric methane to continue to rise throughout the 21st century. The first doubt of this is seen in Simpson et al.'s data in 2002, although Simpson called it "premature" to report that such an opposite trend was occuring. Dlugokencky was the first paper to report the definite leveling trend, and in 2006, Simpson even admitted as much in another paper. The final nail in the coffin for the atmospheric methane alarm came in 2007, with Khalil's paper. The data found there shows no significant rise in atmospheric methane in nearly a decade.
The papers really talk about the level at which reductions in fuel production and other industrial ventures have a significant effect on CH4 concentrations. Here is what Simpson noted in a 2006 paper…
Isobel J. Simpson et al…
http://www.physsci.uci.edu/~rowlandblake/publications/2006GL027330%20Published.pdf
“Although the CH4 budget is currently in approximate balance, there is no reason to believe that it will necessarily remain so in the future, given the possibilities that CH4 levels may increase as a result of increased natural gas and energy use, climate change feedbacks, and/or a decrease in global OH, or conversely that CH4 levels may decrease if various CH4 emission mitigation strategies are implemented as an offset to radiative forcing caused by CO2 growth…”
…really doesn’t sound like someone reporting on an “opposite” trend. Dlugokencky doesn’t really seem to be as concise about an “opposite trend” either…
Dlugokencky et al…
http://www.phys.uu.nl/%7Ehouwelng/PUBLICATIONS/2003GL018126.pdf
“Our observations of a decrease in atmospheric CH4 IPD are consistent with the _10 Tg CH4 decrease in emissions from the fSU from 1990 to 1995 reported in EDGAR3; decreased fossil fuel production and economic incentives suggest that the reductions were in the fossil fuel sector.
It is unlikely that emissions from any other high northern latitude source decreased so abruptly and permanently.
Our observation of constant global average CH4 during 1999–2002 may in part result from these decreased emissions, but the annual rate of increase in CH4 is too variable to say so with certainty. The consistency of our observations with the EDGAR3 emissions inventory gives hope that we are gaining a better understanding of past changes in the global CH4 budget, but our understanding is still not sufficient to tell if the prolonged pause in CH4 increase is temporary or permanent.”
As far as that “final nail”… Courtesy of VWWaterfall, we see that it isn’t the case at all since 2007’s increase shows Methane’s overall trend is still a rise. It also gives some clue that manmade contributions (or absence there of) are notable.
Come on.
Accusing climate science in general of not being statistically sound, yet using even less significant departures (especially considering the mitigations of recent reductions of inputs) from the same data set to refute a more prevalent trend is really cherry-picking.
If anything, these papers touch on how important anthropogenic contributions to CH4 levels are. Contributions from melting ice sheets and permafrost are another matter.
Msg 233
Back to why I'm pointing this out. According to alarmists, the melting of icesheets at the poles will release long-sequestered methane, which allegedly is happening and should have continued, which also should have accelerated the effect of greenhouse forcing. But, as this data has proven this basic assumption incorrect, would it not stand to reason that the entire certainty concerning greenhouse effects on climate be in error as well?
Yes. The theory is that rapid melting of ice sheets and permafrost will release a large amount of methane. Should have happened? If you are speaking of the increase in Methane from melting ice sheets, it probably has happened and still is happening. If it is to suggest that an event of the same magnitude as 635 million years ago hasn’t occurred… well the current ice sheets don’t extend anywhere near as far, so that is highly unlikely. However, the mitigation is in the anthropogenic contribution to Methane concentration (as mentioned in the papers cited). The data has done nothing to refute the theory noted. If anything, it has indicated that man has a direct and notable influence on the amount atmospheric methane present. Even IF the data proved the clathrate release model to be wrong, that does not alter the understood mechanism of atmospheric CO2 (or atmospheric Methane for that matter).
Msg 233
It seems that, without human intervention, methane levels slowed their rise and leveled off, defying the hypothesis of anthropogenic greenhouse warming (which was also displayed in the General Circulation Models); yet the IPCC and other advocates continue to proclaim a "90%" certainty that human greenhouse emissions are a major factor in climate change? This fact alone is enough to re-examine that statement (never fear, there are a multitude of others).
Without human intervention? Not according to the papers from Dlugokencky or Simpson you cited. It is most likely that the recent “leveling” of CH4 has everything to do with the reduction of input from the FSU.
Really. Read the science again before one thinks people are attacking them just for being contrary. What we are criticizing is the misrepresentation of science (like how some other posters speciously ignore the random direction in which CO2 emits energy… not just “basic” physics, but “basic” logic). Also, it’s this
knee-jerk reaction whenever even the slightly bit of information can be misconstrued to be “support” for denial that betrays contrarians to be hunting for reasons to support a preconception (instead of the other way around… arriving at a conclusion based on careful observation).
Msg 251…
"So borg, do you have anything of substance to discuss with us contrarians or is 'polarization' still our fault for not chanting in unison?
RoFl. Everything The Collective has presented HAS been substantial. Whether one admits it is another matter. Polarization shouldn’t be mistaken for “balance of opinion”. There are still very few deniers (or contrarians if one likes one word over the other), AND to this date, they have presented nothing that really supports their view (misinterpretations and cherry-picking don’t count). As far as “fault”, that would be a disambiguation. There is no “fault” by individuals in the spectrum of opinion. However,
it is definitely a deliberate action to disbelieve or to promote insincere misconstructions since repeating the same old myths in light of detailed refutation betrays such an agenda.
Msg 251…
Somehow, I had the impression that science was open to disagreement and discussion while religion has a dogma requiring only belief." I'll agree with that, and invite the Borg to enlighten us "contrarians" if we're somehow mistaken.
This too is a straw man. Science IS totally open to disagreement and discussion. However,
repeating the same illogic when it has been shown to be flawed time and time again is no longer merely “a discussion”. It is just propaganda ad nauseam.
As far as enlightenment, it is apparent that even those with a contrary view ARE enlightened to the real truth. The difference is that they not only refuse to accept it, they feel it compelled to promote specious claims. Why? Here again, is a handy article on the roots of the denial mill…
http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_manufacture_of_uncertainty
It’s probably a better thing to accept the reality of observation (whether on climate issues, or on the cause of thread deletion) than not to. The former is clearly (and ironically) indicated in the papers noted. The latter is clearly indicated in which postings survived… and The Collective’s posts relevant to refutation are still there. The repeated attacks on The B0rg via false accusations and name-calling (even a particularly juvenile rant from some poster’s significant other!) have not.
Anything else, such as implying they were the target, rather than the assailant is to practice denial. At any rate, the degradation to mudslinging has been temporarily suppressed by the knowledge of a possible permanent ban on those practicing it in the past. There will likely no longer be the option to deflect a discussion into a flame war once specious logic fails (at least not without dire consequences). Of course contrarians will continue to merely post the same debunked junk over and over and over again.
Here’s another handy link that pretty much covers all the ad nauseam false arguments that the denial mill keeps churning out. Nearly all of the current “new contrary observations” can be found in this link…
http://gristmill.grist.org/skeptics
You have engaged the B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
(LoL… There. One has their asked-for “enlightenment”… come on… spend the time to find some REAL evidence instead of repeating the same old junk. Oh… as far as another’s claim of “basic Physics”… ignoring the random direction in which heat is emitted IS a fundamental flaw in some theories…)
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
246 (
view
)
Hmm... global warming by co2?
Posted: 8/22/2008 5:52:16 PM
Msg 241
The real problem I have with the GW factions is POLARIZATION so most people only think along certain lines. As a scientist (though far removed from climatology), I recognize that it takes an awful long time to come up with a proper scientific understanding of anything, with many detours and false starts along the way. I've seen many scientific bandwagons come and go and GW seems to have spawned something which looks like, smells like and feels like one of the biggest I've encountered. Big enough to engage most of the world and most of the governments of the world. Is this bandwagon headed down the right road, or did we miss a key turn because of the blinkers we are wearing? Science never works well when everyone has the same opinion. Especially when that includes PUBLIC opinion. Galileo comes to mind.
Nope. The whole problem is that this “polarization” is what is only hoped for by contrarians. Most people (if not all) in this discussion that are PRO CO2 mechanism are prudently skeptical. Things aren’t “believed” just because some celebrity says so, or some paper suggests a trend. It’s about corroboration and credibility. When there is enough of it, the probability of coincidence diminishes significantly. How protagonists practice prudent skepticism is evidenced in how they logically examine assertions (even the suspiciously contrived ones).
Furthermore, they explain their position and largely avoid name-calling and other less-than-admirable methods of “discussion” (For instance, you will not see The Collective just popping in to making fun of another poster’s moniker or making specious references to religion, or unsolicited disparagement of academia in lieu of answering a clear request… we are pretty sure the “answer” to all this by some is just to call those they cannot logically debate as “trolls” LoL). There isn’t anywhere near a parity in composition or composure.
Jumping on a bandwagon? Nope. What either Al Gore or OISM says is weighted by their respective coefficients of credibility (just as opinions are). The science is still the science. The observational record is still the observational record. Politics is still self-serving and largely used to deflect attention from the science and the observational record. Discussing the applicability of the atmospheric CO2 green house gas effect does not mean people do not consider other mechanisms.
Msg 241
The scary thing about all of this is that the CO2 fuss may be distracting us from the REAL issues involved. Global temperature fluctuations aren't new. Climatologists accept they happen. Environmental changes aren't new. The standard response for ANY organism is to adapt. Maybe that thought should at least be a backup plan. Failing that, provide a map of the world's beaches to help people keep their heads buried in the sand.
The real issue has been, and still is, the best possible quality of human life, and barring that the continuance of human life (it doesn’t even have to include being on this planet). Changes to the earth’s climate that negatively impact our condition is worthy of investigation and subsequent action. If there is a link between accelerated inputs and the climate, and if these inputs are within the control of humankind, it is entirely a worthwhile venture.
Fluctuations and environmental changes aren’t new. Of course, but this is just an obfuscation of the fact that fluctuations and environmental changes due to accelerated and man-made inputs are probably not a good thing. We can adapt against many things, but is not altering our planetary stewardship an adaptation in itself? On the notion of accelerated inputs… decelerating at 1g is not a big deal, but decelerating at 20g may have dire effects on internal organs. Sure our bodies may eventually adapt… but not in a single generation.
Msg 241
The one thing that REALLY puzzles me about the CO2 hype is where all of that fossil fuel carbon came from in the first place. Wouldn't have been the atmosphere would it? That really knocks down the credibility of all those "we're killing the planet" types.
Nope. This is just an attempt to hide the fact that the process that placed all the CO2 in its present state DID NOT occur at anywhere near the same rate as it’s current re-introduction into the atmosphere (or if it did, there were likely dire consequences at the time too). It also hides the fact that such a concentration of CO2 (or any other currently trace constituent for that matter) likely did not support a similar eco-system. Other eco-systems probably could exist (even very abundant ones), but it is doubtful that natural processes can mutate that quickly. So… “knock down credibility”?… not so much.
Incidentally, it’s probably pretty hard to kill off nature with the current inputs. Some avatars of it? Yes. Stopping nature as a whole? Doubtful. However, it’s a whole lot easier to reduce the quality of life for our future generations.
Msg 241
The highest probability for global warming is a result of many, probably interacting systems where fixing just one isn't going to solve much at all. We need people to be looking at the BIG picture, not just focussing on an isolated corner.
The entire engine is absolutely a combination of interdependent factors. However, fixing the unnatural inputs is probably a good start. Just “fixing” the rapid introduction of CO2 isn’t where it stops either. We DO look and address the big picture. For instance, better waste management doesn’t stop because of better emission management. They are separate initiatives (although both are to achieve the same goal of a better quality of life).
Msg 241
What about oceanic pollution? Altering the balance of life in our oceans, but perhaps more significantly altering the depth to which sunlight penetrates and heats? How does agriculture, deforestation, urban development alter the 'color' of our planet and modify energy transfer?
Yes. We should look at all these issues (and we probably are). Of course, that doesn’t mean we don’t deal with accelerated re-introduction of CO2 into the atmosphere.
Msg 241
What about water? Carbon fuels add as much water as CO2. Has that added as much water as the hypothesized global warming?
Yes. This is part of ongoing studies. H2O has probably had less focus as the current natural process doesn’t leave re-introduced H2O in the atmosphere anywhere near the timeframe of CO2. Also, the green house gas model shows the major concern to be at altitudes where CO2 concentration is the issue. This should not be construed to mean that albedo and infrared absorption by H2O is not to be factored. That is another area of focus.
Msg 241
]By all means investigate CO2, take economic advantage of it, but for goodness' sake, don't diminish other efforts as a result of this misguided self-satisfaction. The 'crisis' for humanity doesn't seem to be taken taken seriously in money terms. It's hard to get concrete figures, but the US govt. still spends ~twice as much on medical research as it does on all other research combined. Presumably they think illness is a bigger impact on humans than global warming.
Have other efforts been diminished because of the focus on the reduction of CO2 inputs into the atmosphere? It is a common ploy to say that a dollar spent on one thing automatically eliminates the dollar spent on another (as if anything deemed immediately more important gains 100% of the budget from anything less). The truth is that the balance sheet for any governing body will be budgeted to as many things as possible, and will be apportioned based on what has a better return (or at least that is the hope). Certainly, if one feels that the proportions of dollars spent on Climate Change is too high, they can certainly get actively involved in government to change those policies.
The crises resolved by medical research are far more immediate than climate change. This is probably why more money is apportioned to it (although, it’s probably more an ROI thing). However, it is specious to assume that an outstanding difference in dollars spent on medical research means that the government doesn’t think climate change is an issue. There’s plenty of money spent on food too (a pretty immediate concern every 4 hours or so for The Collective).
Taking economic advantage? That’s human nature, but it has nothing to do with whether or not the current mechanism of atmospheric CO2 green house gas effect actually happens as modeled.
You have engaged the B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
(LoL, let’s see if any contrarian can reply without resorting to personal attack, petty dismissal or name-calling…)
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
221 (
view
)
Hmm... global warming by co2?
Posted: 7/9/2008 5:28:09 PM
Message 220
I see the paranoia of the TV character wannabes shines through. An anonymous AGW troll listing a personal attack web site as "unbiased" as exxonsecrets in an attack on some non-anonymous PHD?
ROFLMAO! What did The Collective just say in message 219?
…No doubt there will be those who will try to deflect this by saying “these are not peer-reviewed science. They are just other popular blogs with opposing views”. Well… the illogic to that is that these are presented to debunk Bob Carter, not the science. Deniers have been given every opportunity to present REAL peer-reviewed support. Yet, as usual, all you get is reference to the likes of Bob Carter…
By the way was that PhD in climate science? This is yet another groundless comeback along with yet another personal attack. Deniers do little but this.
Message 220
How is it possible to make a personal attack on a non-person?
Well… that’s easy to answer.
One attacks the logic or the foundation of the logic, not the poster. You choose to attack the poster yet again. Therefore you are employing a personal attack.
Whether you personally believe that poster to be a non-person is… irrelevant. That was too easy. It’s really like shooting fish in a barrel.
Message 220
What the "collective" is so vigorously attacking is open minded doubt all the while screaming "lies" yet not offering anything to refute the so called lies. Where are the refuting facts?
Nope. People can easily check the posting history to see that The Collective has always been in support of diligent skepticism.
Purposely misrepresenting willing dissent to be the same as scientific skepticism is in essence a lie.
As far as the other theories, most that have been following these threads are aware of who has offered up CO2 theories that have been challenged on numerous occasions in the past. That these threads have now been eliminated, and subsequently we see the reemergence of the posters that posted the junk science within them in is, LoL, curious. If these threads are all deleted, members who viewed or participated in the past are still well aware of whom these deniers were.
Message 220
Those who claim the jury is still out only wish for more science, not dogma and condemnation of their logical concerns. Where is the "censorship" except for the rants of "lies" themselves? The quest for more data to make conclusions is about is as far from censorship as one can get yet any observations not following the "collective" talking points are labeled lies. Except for such illogical things as spiked heels, the TV borg were far more logical and certainly more self controlled.
If one truly “wished for more science”, they would not actively shill the likes of Bob Carter (yep… you just did that).
The attempt at censorship lies in the constant lacing of postings with insults and name-calling (which is intended to make people reluctant to respond)
. That is pretty obvious (no matter how much you wish to speciously deny it).
Nope. “Observations that do not follow” are rarely anything more than cherry-picked data or text disingenuously presented to support denier claims. This too has been shown time and time again on these threads (not just by The Collective either).
Self-control is exhibited in responding to challenges WITHOUT resorting to name-calling, false accusations and insults. We leave it up to all viewers to decide who is or is not practicing self-control.
Message 220
I would like to see how my theories and explanations are half truths without a speck of facts to prove it. Some more reasonable people following your religious chanting will at least parrot the biased conclusions of the AGW movement. You simply resort to citing personal attack web sites and padantic but empty rants.
It is doubtful that anyone’s memory is so short as to not remember the various threads from last year where contrarian theories on atmospheric CO2 were presented (especially if they participated in them). It is equally doubtful that anyone can honestly claim to be promoting “open mindedness” while actively denigrating others with name-calling and insults merely because they have exposed one’s logical fallacies.
The posting history will show that The Collective has gone at length in the past to dismantle many a half-baked theory. It is always the same “fictional science” presented ad nauseam. Anyone who has been following these threads is well aware of who employs argumentum ad nauseam. One can lie to oneself all they want, but that will not change the memory of others.
By the way, the word is “pedantic” and irrelevant. Contempt for something doesn’t make it have any less impact (that applies to anthropogenic climate change, academics or other members of this forum).
The tactics employed by deniers IS to achieve this very goal of censorship. By flooding threads with illogic, deflections or totally false claims, and then attempting to bully critics into silence by name-calling and personal attack, they clearly are not supporting open dialogue. Claiming that dissent is merely appropriate skepticism is unlikely when repeated requests for corroboration are evaded with one excuse or another.
You have engage the B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
219 (
view
)
Hmm... global warming by co2?
Posted: 7/9/2008 11:51:16 AM
Message 218
Would you prefer censorship?
The tactics employed by deniers IS to achieve this very goal of censorship.
By flooding threads with illogic, deflections or totally false claims, and then attempting to bully critics into silence by name-calling and personal attack, they clearly are not supporting open dialogue. Claiming that dissent is merely appropriate skepticism is unlikely when repeated requests for corroboration are evaded with one excuse or another.
Those five-or-so lines are critical to this discussion.
Message 212
If the definition fits, then the definition stands. TROLL although mindless drone would be fine if preferred.
LoL. The definition doesn’t fit. According to most deniers, even if there WAS a consensus, only a few vocal dissenters saying “not a troll” are all it would take to be “not a troll”. RoFL. Nope. Not a troll, not matter how one tries to convince themselves or others by merely repeating a clearly false accusation.
As was mentioned before…
“Actually, forum trolls tend to employ personal attacks and inflammatory comments to get a rise out of others. We’ll let the viewers decide who is using those tactics.”
Sticking to the topic would be preferred, but proving that one has little to offer other than degenerating to personal attacks is still a choice.
All deniers have pretty much taken that route once their false arguments were stripped away.
Message 212
The previous threads did not prove anything about the quantitative analysis of the ocean currents. Speaking as an expert on measurement technologies with a real identity as opposed to some borrowed identity from a canceled TV show, we are not there. At best, there is nothing more than publish or parish academic opinions for grant money.
The previous threads showed all of us who were lurkers a distinct dichotomy between those that sincerely studied the science, and those that chose to speciously promote dissent. The former openly examined evidence, and stayed on topic. The latter were quick to employ childish name-calling when challenged (just as they do today).
The sidetrack into the THC is merely the typical diversion. Denigrating the moniker an opponent chooses is yet another example of irrelevant disparagement. Neither of these tactics has proven effective in the past. It isn’t working now.
We believe the colloquialism one is clutching for is “publish or
perish
” and not “parish” (got to love those “add homonyms”… LoL is this “pastor” present?). Even so, such a condition is irrelevant.
Message 212
Speaking of reviewing old threads, applying the ironic term "evil oil" and religious beliefs is quite appropriate for the TV show villain collective. 7 of 9 was hot but the spiked heals? Pretty much jumping the shark. What characterized the assimilated creatures was an inability to think for themselves so I suppose it could be an appropriate moniker.
LoL. We were not aware that the fictitious characters of The Borg had a religion. Either way, it’s irrelevant. Yes, we are so incapable of “thinking for ourselves” that this very text is being written by artificial intelligence. It is sad indeed to be bested so soundly and so often by software generated replies. We’d feel sorry for The Collective’s opponents but emotions are irrelevant (We love that word!)
By the way, the word is “heels”. The Collective isn’t big on spelling (heck we spell our avatar with a zero), but come on… you have to do better than that to maintain some level of credibility.
Message 212
Back on the topic of CO2; one cannot separate atmospheric CO2 from its sources. As an example, the collective should revisit the ethanol scheme its ilk forced on us. Its easy to research but as I prefer people to think for themselves therefor, I let them find their own sources. One can find a vast array of pro and con sources on the internet on just about any topic.
ROFl. This excuse of “look it up for yourself” was unsuccessful when you were challenged to provide support for some rants in the past. If one sincerely wanted people to research this for themselves they would stick to the science.
Deniers only HOPE that people will think that there are similar proportions of equally valid pro and con sources. The truth is that the dissenting crowd is very small, populated mainly by self-proclaimed experts like Solomon and promote their opinion via “fictional science”.
Those that follow these pariahs do so as a means to feel superior by the false notion that merely being skeptical is a sign of higher intellect or less gullibility than those who understand the science as it is. It’s a very personal thing with deniers. If it were not so, there wouldn’t be the predictable retreat to personal attacks and name-calling whenever illogic or subterfuge is exposed.
Message 212
I see no reason to quote a few biased to my argument when my focus is to get people to think for themselves.
One can speciously ignore the consequence that credibility is out-the-door when support in the form of peer-reviewed research cannot be produced. It only proves that there is little more than feigned bravado behind the dissent.
Message 212
Very different from the TV science fiction portrayal of the drone Borg.
Actually, The Star Trek Borg thought “collectively” and impersonally. It is quite an advanced and socially redeeming way of thinking. One may want to exercise that concept. Most denier heroes that are often quoted by the deniers are literally supporting denial for selfish reasons. They get a pay cheque for telling half-truths and generating dissent. The recently elevated Solomon does so to further his agenda on anti-nuke power policies.
Message 212
To continue; the massive die-off resulting in large part from the ethanol effort has resulted in massive releases of CO2 in the oceans and is killing the coral reefs just like its killing other sea life in the dead zones and beyond.
The topic is really about the atmospheric CO2 mechanism and how rapidly elevated concentration has been correlated to global climate change. If it so interests you, please feel free to start a thread on the Gulf of Mexico Dead Zone. Be sure to specifically state that it has an effect in the same magnitude as atmospheric CO2 in respects to climate change as you are implying.
Message 212
The borg-like drone disciples of CO2 global warming religion interpret the CO2 as coming from fossil fuel burning as they are blind to their own political activism being a cause. If one is able to see the big picture, when discussing man made issues, the root cause is political. After all, the intent of the GW crowd is political controls on the activities of society.
So let’s see… The Collective asks all to steer clear of the politics and THAT is seen as being a political activist… Right. If politics did nothing towards controlling the activities of the public at large, we would eventually be in a state of anarchy. Even the collection of taxes requires some form of control for few would pay if there were no penalty for not doing so. Anyways, that politics, and this is a discussion on atmospheric CO2. Molecules don’t vote.
Message 215
I'm gonna poke my head in here hoping it doesn't get shot off like it does on most AGW threads. I'm a scientist. BS Chemistry. I don't believe it's science yet. I believe it's a burgeoning science but not yet ready for prime time.
Actually don’t worry at all, Too Hot. As you will see from all these threads, those that draw from the current state of the science are both reasonable and mature. The record will also show that most (if not all) personal attacks come from deniers, who when challenged on their unsupported opinion, will resort to all sorts of juvenile behaviour like name-calling and selective cognition in attempts to bully their opposition into silence. So as long as you are perceived by deniers to not be in opposition to their view, you will unlikely be personally attacked.
The disciplines applied to measuring the variables associated are bona fide sciences. They are certainly “there” and will provide the empirical record necessary to refine the overall model. It was testing the null hypothesis that debunked the “cosmic ray” correlation theory.
Message 217
You've got it essentially right. The notion of the falsifiable test is one that the AGW hypothesis refuses to even consider. But you might check out youtube, for Bob Carter's "5 tests of Co2." He applies 5 tests to Co2 and whether or not it actually causes climate change, and it fails all 5. Including the test of correlation; it even failed that one.
The null hypothesis is not ignored by the scientific community no matter how often deniers pretend it is. Bob Carter? As usual, instead of peer-reviewed reference all you get is some astroturfer. Bob Carter is yet another Exxon funded propagandist. Here are some handy links to why his “science” is not valid…
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/personfactsheet.php?id=1134
http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptics/bobcarter.html
http://www.hells-handmaiden.com/2007/08/28/bob-carters-mythology-is-global-temperature-meaningless/
No doubt there will be those who will try to deflect this by saying “these are not peer-reviewed science. They are just other popular blogs with opposing views”. Well… the illogic to that is that these are presented to debunk Bob Carter, not the science. Deniers have been given every opportunity to present REAL peer-reviewed support. Yet, as usual, all you get is reference to the likes of Bob Carter.
This is just another attempt to pass off “fictional science” as proof of legitimacy by deniers.
Just like always…
”Education is the key to success in getting the public onside. Why do you think deniers like to flood threads with half-truths, deflections, and conclusions based on illogic? It is hoped that their agenda will be promoted by the subterfuge of false education.”
You have engage the B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
(Bring on 7 of 9, “heals” and all)
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
211 (
view
)
Hmm... global warming by co2?
Posted: 7/8/2008 11:39:00 AM
Message 210
The term troll is the appropriate here. It is characterized by anonymous posters with little to no substance, only dismissal of opposing views.
Just because one says so? LoL. Nope. It would only be appropriate if one really did that. However, since it’s pretty easy for any viewer to check the history of posts for participants, they can see the label wouldn’t apply to The Collective. There’s got to be a better comeback than that. People can decide for themselves who behaves more the troll. At any rate, this is excellent proof of the modus operandi of deniers, “name-calling and personal attack” instead of staying on topic. Good job.
Message 210
Their posts wreak of theater and when discussing science, they tend to confuse science and science fiction as the general public has little ability to discern the difference. As an example, the claims of debunking are patently false.
Confusion? How apropos. This would be an “add homonym” ad hominem! (You probably meant “reek” as “wreak” is a homonym and nonsensical in your usage of the word). To be theatrical would be compliment when conversing on “dry” topics such as CO2, and that too is likely unintentional but we will accept it with the usual grace.
As far as confusing science and science fiction, that would be more in line with those who feel their concept of the CO2 mechanism is far more accurate than that of the academia at large. Speaking of Science Fiction… deniers reference “fictional science”. Most astroturfing organizations like OISM push out “fictional science”, but The Collective is fully sentient of the line between reality and fantasy (something those with delusions of grandeur are not so clear on).
As far as the debunking being “patently false”, it takes only a few minutes of searching the remaining threads on climate change or “global warming” to prove such statements to be pure fantasy too. The Collective has supplied detail, ample links and discussion in the past.
As it is now a forgone conclusion that contrarian’s really only wish to flood threads with the same old debunked junk
, The Collective only has to refer people back to those threads.
Message 210
The effect of ocean currents distributing heat around the planet are well known and have been known for centuries. They account for much of the current population distribution. The mechanisms fueling the currents are well known. The quantitative analysis of the currents is sketchy at best as space observations only cover surface temperatures, not temperatures and salinity distributed and in motion throughout the oceans. A sprinkling of monitors at best can only see a few points in an environment with at least a half dozen significant dimensions.
This thread is on Atmospheric CO2. The THC is not on topic. Asides like this only prove the modus operandi of deniers again. This time it’s the “deflect with dialogue into other issues”. Why not bring up cosmic rays? Whoops… someone already tried that.
Message 210
If the trolls had any substance, they would stand behind them with their reputation on the line but that is not the nature of trolls. Instead of actually expanding an open mind, they tend to obsess with science fiction or mythology.
That might carry a tiny bit of weight if it were not for the fact that The Collective always encourages viewers to study the posting history of all posters to get an idea who is or is not being sincere. Reputation is built on deeds, not on a mug shot. Not on topic and nice try.
LoL… as if a mere avatar or a quote or two are proof of obsession; the definition of a forum troll doesn’t indicate obsession with science fiction or mythology.
Actually, forum trolls tend to employ personal attacks and inflammatory comments to get a rise out of others. We’ll let the viewers decide who is using those tactics.
Message 210
I used to keep bees (Borg) on the ranch. I harvested the product of their hard work. A few moths moved in and killed all the hives all the way down to the last bee. Hive resistance was futile.
An irrelevant fantasy. LMAO. Besides, harvesting moth dust can’t be nearly as lucrative as honey. Hopefully they are useful for something. Maybe they can come in handy in case a gang of woollen sweaters attacks you. Rofl.
Message 210
On a related topic, the "evil oil" religious fanatics… … a crime against humanity.
Not really relevant to the atmospheric CO2 mechanism. Feel free to start a thread on this, if it hasn’t been discussed yet.
Message 210
Yes, the politics of this religion and the trolls who so elequently support it do a real bang up job don't they? If these trolls are blindly followed, just think of the damage they will do to planet Earth. Resistance is not futile, its necessary.
Politics? This is a thread on the science. Nice try but people can easily check out The Collective’s posts to see the constant reminder for people to “steer clear of the politics”. Wow. This really is like shooting fish in a barrel. What did B0rg just say in message 209?
“It is assured that deniers will prove it again by rehashing old myths, personal attacks, name-calling and other subterfuge. (Other mechanisms have also been covered ad nauseam, so bringing them up in a CO2 thread is just trying to deflect attention.)”
Yep. Same old name-calling, personal attacks and deflections instead of being on topic… Just keep proving this prophecy… LoL!
You have engage the B0rg
“Resistance is Futile”
(Bring on the Moths… LMAO)
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
209 (
view
)
Hmm... global warming by co2?
Posted: 7/7/2008 5:54:03 PM
Notice how the latest disambiguation is to misconstrue the understanding of how the atmospheric CO2 mechanism works to mean the science is settled in an absolute manner. The entire science is substituted for the understanding of the mechanism. This subtle change is then connected with “settled” (outside of context) to mean defined and unquestionable. Now the straw man is savagely beaten. “Calling the science of climate change “settled” is just being a zealot of fundamentalist proportions”.
Nothing new, it’s just the same old straw man tactics to denigrate the current understanding. No science is presented because there really isn’t any that truly supports the denier’s stance. Sure, we get deflections with asides about ocean currents etc… but those have already been discussed ad nauseam.
Nova…
Mr. Solomon is an active environmentalist. That's what drew my attention to this particular release. I bet it will cause a very large commotion in the political and science circles.
No need to be too worried, Nova. Solomon’s book is really nothing more than a rehash of the same stuff we see on these threads. Solomon is cagier (after all he is a seasoned editorialist) and carefully weaves in disclaimers in his book. Somewhere in the first 50 pages (around page 47) a reader will find that Solomon himself admits he really isn’t saying the mechanism behind anthropogenic is incorrect, or that anyone really accredited in the field is denying that understanding. Then again, he will go on for hundreds of pages more with specious references (most of which we have seen on these threads).
Solomon’s book is the usual cherry-picked data and out-of-context “support”. Solomon pulls out the same old stuff from familiar denial heroes. Is he an environmentalist? Sure, who can’t call themselves that? Why does he do this? Two reasons… Money is one. The other is that he has been a strong anti-nuke power advocate in the past (thus the environmentalist title) and recent policies are not in favour of a nuke-power-plant free environment. This is expected as most well-known deniers have a clearly conflicting agenda. Sometimes it’s an old wound like a run in with academia decades before, sometimes it’s a newer one.
Essentially right? Nope. Essentially junk.
My own personal theory is that climate change is complex, that we as a species are contributing to the problem through increased emissions in CO2, but that the weak solar cycle might very well hide the effects of our actions until 2030 or so, when we will enter into the next strong solar cycle.
You are correct.
You will notice that although this thread is clearly about the atmospheric CO2 mechanism and how it contributes to climate. However, deniers will use this thread as another launching point for promoting this agenda to falsely label anthropogenic climate change as only the product of “alarmists” who base their decisions on faulty science.
Any poster who speaks out is immediately attacked with direct or indirect personal insult and comments on how they are merely “sheep”. Furthermore, those who use the science and explain how science is carefully scrutinized are speciously called “religious” as to denote a certain “blind faith”. This is just a smoke screen to imply that any counter accusation is just retaliation. It’s a typical defense of those that actually employ “faith” rather than objective reasoning. Pre-empt the opposition with accusations that they are doing what you are actually doing… see how that works?
The truth is that science IS a self-examining process.
Now that there is clear correlation between the CO2 mechanism and global climate, deniers have altered their attack. The suggestion now is that any outlying data, postulations of alternate mechanisms, model refinement or general empirical error is “proof” that the main theory is “unsettled”. This is nothing more than careless or uneducated (or worse yet, purposely ignorant) interpretation of the process.
We have gone over this ad nauseam. There is nothing new here. Furthermore, when the proponents of this propaganda have demonstrated a weak grasp of logic and science (or purposeful ignorance of them), or have been shown to employ subterfuge in the form of red herring and straw man arguments, this continued grandstanding is just petty defiance. It is neither sincere nor is it science.
My fear is that the politicians, large enterprises, and the public will not believe the researchers any more, because there won't be evidence of climate warming, and so any strides we've taken to remedy the problem will be reversed. Then we'll be in a position where we have astronomical amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere and we'll head into a warming period.
The dissent we see here is normal to what communities experience when change is required. The denial camp is typically small but very vocal. No matter how many times they proudly declare how skepticism is growing the reality is that they are just trying to convince themselves.
Education is the key to success in getting the public onside. Why do you think deniers like to flood threads with half-truths, deflections, and conclusions based on illogic? It is hoped that their agenda will be promoted by the subterfuge of false education.
Denial only has to be met with honest debate. Challenging deniers is educating the public by demonstrating how deniers either dance around the subject (mere evasion) or resort to name-calling and personal attacks (in hopes to mask a false position with a “shouting” match), but never admit to faulty logic. When cherry-picking or false interpretations are exposed, they avoid further discussion and move on to the next position.
Deniers like to promote the idea that just having controversy means equal and opposite camps of thought. If not that, they will promote the false logic “if anyone disagrees, then the science is wrong.” If this were so, one only has to say that the moon is made of green cheese and ignore any evidence that it isn’t in order to give it equal merit. If anyone challenges that, call the challenger a “religious fanatic” or “a mindless sheep”, because apparently that is rock solid logical debate. RoFl.
This exposure of intolerant behaviour is all that is required to show the public at large the reality of denial.
It is assured that deniers will prove it again by rehashing old myths, personal attacks, name-calling and other subterfuge. (Other mechanisms have also been covered ad nauseam, so bringing them up in a CO2 thread is just trying to deflect attention.)
In any case, this book might cause people to reconsider the whole issue. It remains to be seen whether that's good or bad...I simply like to know the truth and make decisions based on that...ones that are good for the environment of course
There will be those that will feel that the book is the truth and look no further (or no further than anything else that agrees with the false logic). It happens. However, these people will likely be
ones who hold a notion and hunt for ONLY for reasons (regardless of how contrived) that justify their belief. This is denial.
Even at the levels of key decision makers, we will probably have a small percentage of deniers. It happens there too. However, education works for most… even CEO’s and politicians.
To those that think name-calling is mature debate…
Go ahead…LoL… parrot and name-call The Collective as that is the typical defense of those without merit. It’s either that or just a retreat into another false (and previously tried and debunked) position.
You have engage the B0rg.
“Resistance is Futile”
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
198 (
view
)
Hmm... global warming by co2?
Posted: 6/25/2008 5:02:36 PM
Abelian, my point was in response to a question that fringed on the political. ("I don't see why you're opposed to reducing emissions"). That is why. Because I'm not sufficiently convinced that there is a real threat behind those emissions. They are not pollutants in the popular sense. They don't adversely affect human health in the trace amounts found in the atmosphere.
True, but it is a moot point. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere (trace or not) is relative to how it interacts with the climate mechanism and not how it DIRECTLY interacts with a human. Nice try at trying to play up the “insignificance” of “trace amount” when it doesn’t apply that way. Yup. Jump to another false position… see what we mean.
The only threat posed, according to you (the generic "you," i.e. advocates and alarmists in general), is that of climate change.
In those trace amounts in the atmosphere, true. There may be other threats (hey! Maybe a certain threshold of C02 in the atmosphere will attract aliens) but that is beyond the scope of this discussion.
I don't know what you think will happen (I haven't seen you post it) if these emissions are left unchecked, but the general position of advocates of action (meaning the reduction of emissions) is that it will cause a series of catastrophes that threaten modern civilization---and the only way to check them (according to advocates) is to use the political process to force people (individuals and businesses) to reduce their emissions.
According to those who have studied the science, they do have some idea what will happen. One can go read it for themselves if they really wanted to. As far as stating that “advocates” see a series of catastrophes, that would be have to be qualified as to what one deems a catastrophe. Certainly the proportion we see in a Hollywood movie isn’t going to happen (no advocate is implying that), but that isn’t saying leaving the current anthropogenic contribution as it is now is the best solution.
As for "overruling" the scientific process, that's downright false, and you know it. I'm insisting that empirical science be used, not theoretical science. All this is what will happen in theory (shown in the models), but what does reality say? That's the acid test, if you will, of any theory or hypothesis. Models are theoretical constructs, which means that what you're telling me is that testing a theory (or hypothesis) with another is scientific verification of that hypothesis. I think any amount of deductive reasoning will tell you otherwise. Such tools as MRI machines only assist in a true scientific objective---observing functions of a real object, like a human body---whereas climate models only demonstrate what will happen if a hypothesis is correct 100%.
Unfortunately this is the same old red herring. The scientific process necessarily involves testing hypotheses by experimentation and other forms of referee sampling. The concepts behind model refinement have already been presented. Implying that climate science is not a “true scientific endeavor” is unfounded.
Unfortunately, this is known (for the hypothesis under consideration) to be inaccurate. Observation after observation fails to verify what the models indicate should occur if the hypothesis (demonstrated in the models) is accurate. In empirical science, anything that fails to hold up under real conditions must be discarded as inaccurate.
Rofl. This is the same old “if it’s not absolutely accurate in prediction then the whole premise should be thrown out”. That’s already been covered. Wrong again.
Basically, if none of these "catastrophes" will occur, then this hypothesis is still an academic excercise. Climate's always changing, as geology has shown, and what causes that change is still so poorly understood that models (programmed with that same understanding) are of no practical use---yet advocates still claim them as sufficient authority to insist upon political "solutions" to the "problem" as perceived by these models.
This is the classic straw man. Falsely state the position of climate science as claiming there will be these “catastrophes”. Then state that if these catastrophes are neither accurately predicted nor should any one not occur as specified, then conclude that your opposition is groundless. Nope. Try again.
This stuff is just a re-hash, and it has already been demonstrated that one is insincerely posting up half-truths and cherry-picked documentation to support yet another specious claim. No matter how much one attempts to give it a “new look”, this is just the usual denier argumentum ad nauseam.
Message 193
pretty much tells the whole story.
You have engaged The B0rg
“Resistance is futile”
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
193 (
view
)
Hmm... global warming by co2?
Posted: 6/24/2008 1:03:47 PM
In Summary
This recent spate of “new evidence” is really just the very same old half-truths and mythology (although some have new “wrapping”) that was predicted in The B0rg’s message 159. It’s the tired old routine of “here’s a new one!” followed by personal attacks and character assault from the wings when the old myth is challenged. After that, another pile of junk is dragged out. It gets debunked, which generates another round of personal attacks from deniers instead of debate. That is quickly followed by a retreat to another tired myth.
Note the slight change in that the subterfuge is now more focused at the elements of the climate change model, rather than the concept of anthropogenic contribution learned from interpretation of historical data. Today’s non-sequitur shift is to link any inaccuracy of a computational model as proof of overall falsehood. All deniers are proving is that a disregard for logic; suspect reading comprehension, disrespect for academia and contempt for others seem to go hand in hand with the false notion that contrarian thought is automatically more profound.
Flooding a thread with the names of papers that supposedly support denial (we all can likely find these same 400 on some denial machine site too) is just filibustering. Furthermore, upon examination, all we find is misinterpretation and cherry-picked comments or papers that have already been subsequently and logically refuted. The best we’ll get are papers that question the accuracy of some aspect of a climate change model, data gathering or data interpretation. Rarely (if ever) do you see peer-reviewed papers that succinctly claim that the current understanding of climate change and how anthropogenic factors affect it are as doubtful as deniers like to imply (Aside from the Exxon-funded ones of course).
Using Jan Esper as support of denial??? This alone condemns one to the “Climate science is wrong, and I’ll throw out links and false reasons till people get tired of proving me wrong” crowd.
When The Collective was still just a lurker, some denier tried this very same ploy against another critic and failed. Not only that. As a consequence of that attempt, that denier lost his credibility by showing a lack of understanding of basic logical concepts as well as using carefully edited half-truths to promote myth. He must have known that too, since he was curiously absent from that Climate Change threads for some time afterwards. That thread was deleted since then (and that is perhaps why someone would try this again), but we are sure that many reading this, will have read that one too. Hopefully one of them will be reading this and corroborate this historical account (
as well as let us know just WHO that emasculated denier was
).
You have engaged The B0rg.
Resistance is Futile.
.
.
.
For those who wish to continually challenge with the same old junk…
Msg 192
Fact is, if it weren't for the notion that this whole global warming thing will be "catastrophic," this whole argument would be an academic excercise. That should explain why I ignored Borg's charge of "strawman" when I spoke of the alarmist position.
Nope. The misconception that
claiming
those who do not deny anthropogenic contribution to climate change point towards “catastrophic” consequences is only
purposeful misrepresentation
of those criticizing “deniers”. This is the classic straw man argument since the science tells of things not quite as dramatic as that. Ignoring the fact that others can see this does not make it invisible to even oneself.
The fact is that it is by far deniers who hope to integrate politics, as well as personal rancour into the discussion since it distracts from the real science.
(Please don’t bother bringing up “Al Gore” as “the voice” for science and going on with some argument to title him a hypocrite… that is politicizing.) This topic IS an academic exercise on atmospheric CO2, yet one side continues to try and turn it into both a political battle and a personal brawl (using the term “buddy boy” to refer to someone with a differing view, Msg 183 paragraph 4… please... like that is representative of an someone honestly attempting to be academic.) As far as the science goes, all we see is the same cherry-picked comments being hoisted up. As soon as these comments are debunked, its time for a personal attack or some deflection followed by a retreat to yet another false position.
Until the time deniers actually attempt to stay academic (much less
admit flaw when it is pointed out
), they will just keep moving on to the next fallacy when exposed. Watch. All deniers will do is throw in a few insults (sometimes camouflaged, sometimes blatant), make specious claims, and post up a “new” set of references. Rarely, if ever, do you see them remain on a point once their illogic has been exposed (Well, aside from the times they just pretend not to hear the flaws).
As for temperatures rising, I would make another point that doesn't fit with the anthropogenic greenhouse hypothesis. According to the best data, there's been no significant temperature trend in the last 10 years, coupled with a 4% rise in CO2 during that time. This really shouldn't be happening if the hypothesis of anthropogenic greenhouse warming is, indeed, fact. But it does square well with what's said by another paper Borg blew off as "junk," that being Zhen-Shan & Xian. They've been blown off by him and his linked detractors due to the fact that they think that, with lessening solar activity we should be starting a cooling (which isn't exactly far off base with recent temperature trends). Looks like the peer-reviewed Zhen-Shan & Xian could easily be right.
One really has to get an understanding of how functions with dependencies on multiple variables behave before attempting to argue these points. The illogic presented here is like saying, “there is no theft of $50 because my account just grew by $150” while ignoring the fact that you just deposited $200 in your account. Since some posters have been called on this fallacy before, people who participate on these threads but continue to apply such illogic, either really don’t get the basics, or, they are simply in denial. The history will show that it is very much the latter (and possibly even a combination with the former). There is also the distinct possibility that they really do understand, but are hoping that there are people in the audience that don’t, thereby passing fiction for fact via false (but appearing valid) logic.
Zhen-Shan & Xian’s paper was “blown off” because they think with lessening solar activity we should be starting a cooling trend? Wow! That is the most blatant straw man argument to date since neither The Collective nor the folks at realclimate made any such statement. There should be some sort of Forum award handed out for this one.
Nope. That straw man doesn’t apply.
That “paper” was blown off because of how its actual “primary conclusion” is wholly irrelevant to their subsequent aside that, at best, implies a “possible” overstatement of CO2 effect. Here is the conclusion for those averse to clicking onto the supplied link in our post 178:
“And again, our primary conclusion, i.e., that atmospheric CO2 concentration is not a key determinant of periodic variation of the global temperature. The global climate warming is not solely affected by the CO2 greenhouse effect.”
Yes. THAT is the “primary conclusion”. For “periodic” variation is the important qualifier. The paper merely demonstrates that several distinct periodic mechanisms can be extracted from the climate data commonly used via their methodology. Does it DENY that CO2 increases will increase the global mean temperature? NO. There are other variables that have cyclical influence embedded in the history. That’s nothing new.
The conclusion then goes on to say in reference to the record from the 40’s to the 70’s (in case deniers think this is a cherry-pick, people can go read the conclusion in it’s entirety in the link provided):
“Although the CO2 greenhouse effect on global climate changes is unsuspicious, it could have been excessively exaggerated.”
The problem is that the authors neither implies this to be a conclusion, nor do they show it to be proven at all. It is merely a “possibility” in order to justify their data model. It is like stating that aliens MIGHT have caused it. RoFl. From this single sentence, yet another claim of peer-reviewed dissent is posted. If someone said it was alien intervention, they could “easily” be right too. If anything, they are being deliberately vague providing reason for their solution’s larger time scale mode. Interested parties can Google concepts like “overfitting” in data modeling to see what we are talking about.
Yep.
Once again, either deniers really do have absolutely poor reading comprehension, or, this is yet another laughably tenuous bit of “support”. This is why those who choose to vehemently support denial really have a tough time convincing anyone that they are employing anything remotely resembling critical thinking.
(LoL… some even think that merely replying with essentially a “no… YOU are wrong” is an equally substantial argument).
Msg 189…
Abelian; you might want to look at whether or not those models being used are accurate---if they're not, then you might want to re-examine the accuracy of the "conclusions" drawn from them. If the models can't accurately reflect what's observed, then it's obvious that the flaws are too great to say anything conclusively.
This is yet another fallacy. A model needn’t predict with precision in order for important conclusions to be drawn from it. For example, one may not be able to “accurately” model the damage from a projectile (much less accurately measure the variables required even if they had a near-perfect equation), yet one can conclusively ascertain the certainty of grievous damage it will inflict. Many models do not measure things with absolute precision either. Yet they are used to build structures that behave as predicted.
This notion ”that conclusions drawn from a model that does not yield absolute precision are faulty” is to purposely confuse precision with direction.
Remember, models are theoretical constructs, not reality---which is the real test in science for accuracy. How well does the hypothesis (which is represented in the models) stand up to observations in the real world? Not well at all. What I'll reference for you here are some of the papers found in the peer-reviewed literature showing great, massive flaws revealed from observations of real-world conditions.
Models undergo refinement. This doesn’t mean the original model or premise is worthless.
More importantly, the absence of a highly accurate model does not eliminate a hypothesis. In order to prove a functional relationship a rudimentary model would suffice. In order to substantiate the relative effect of a variable, something with some predictive consistency is all that is required. Examples of these are used all the time in physical science as well as behavioural psychology. The ability to predict the actions of people is often based on a model, and may not be 100% accurate (nor will they contain variables that are difficult to gather in practice). However, it proves to be pretty good at predetermining the behaviour of consumers and criminals alike. It’s pretty good at calling denier online behaviour too.
Probability models are very good at increasing the profitability of banks, insurance agencies and casinos. Yet, there is no guarantee that one can’t “beat the house”… Are we to throw out the whole science of probability based on some guy winning a lottery against the odds?
The sneaky shift here is this… Instead of debating the validity that atmospheric CO2 rise has been a correlated to the recent Global Mean Temperature record, the “cause for concern” now is the lack of a precise model to predict Global Mean Temperatures in the near future.
That’s like saying, we know that a McKing Big Whop burger diet has given someone a bad case of hardened arteries… but since we don’t have a model that predicts just what his blood pressure will be next fall, the WHOLE concept of “ lotsa greasy burger is bad for you” must be thrown out.
Yes. That is what “throw out the concept because you don’t have an accurate model that uses the concept” is doing.
LoL. Nice try, but wrong again.
Msg 183…
Boy, Borg, did you GOOF!! Let's have a look at a few of these, which (by the way) are but 7 of about 400 or so papers I could reference that dispute one aspect or other of the supposed "consensus" (yep, the one that doesn't exist). The question I was answering (check earlier in the thread) was whether or not there existed peer-reviewed papers disputing the hypothesis; and there are. Needless to say, your verdicts are worth about as much as tips on wort.
Goofed? Nope. Even that paper was not disputing the nature and applicability of anthropogenic climate change. No amount of taking comments out-of-context (yup. “cherry-picking”) will support dubious claims that it is refuting the science (much less refuting anthropogenic climate change altogether).
Yes.
The challenge was to produce peer-reviewed papers that, in summary, dispute the understanding that anthropogenic influence on the climate is real and measurable. It is NOT the same as finding papers that contain postulates, when taken out of context, and further couched to imply that such postulates are within the context of a wholly opposite conclusion, exist.
The former is still unresolved. The latter is the specious “cherry-picking” subterfuge that The Collective predicted would be used again by deniers. It also does not include citing papers that are subsequently refuted by further research or just plainly proven to be built on false pretences.
Just like how many deniers feel that by labelling Al Gore as a hypocrite, the science automatically inherits the same label, they hope to do the same here. Of course it’s much better to discredit the logic, and if it is shown to be a habit, the vendor of that illogic is similarly discredited. However, “needless to say” (yet here we are saying it… LoL), one completely fails, when their means of dismissal is yet another disambiguation. So, nope, wrong again.
Does anyone notice the irony of filibustering by name-dropping paper after paper supposedly in support of denial? Here we have deniers passionately discrediting the concept of “truth by consensus”, yet what is boasting about 400 papers doing? Is that not promoting a truth by consensus? Of course, one will see that these 400 or so papers (aside from the ones penned by Singer or other EXXON funded “researchers”) are mainly papers that contain questions about certain aspects of the data analyses. Few will actually deny the conspicuous effects of anthropogenic factors in climate change (As was shown with Zhen-Shan and Xian. LMAO… “Esper” said so? Alright… we’ll cover Esper too…)
To give some idea of the worth of the verdicts, let's see about the one paper he calls "legitimate." He says it doesn't "deny" anything. Well, it tests one of the great hypotheses of the advocating science, that of presumed feedback effects. The reason we hear about a rise in temps as great as all that from Al Gore and the IPCC is due to those very feedbacks. What Schwartz, using empirical science, found out is that the net effect of the feedbacks is roughly nil. That's right, they basically cancel each other. What he found was that (given everything else being equal), a doubling of CO2 (from 280 ppmv to 560 ppmv) would produce about a 1 degree celsius warming---a far cry from the 2.5 to 4.5 projected by the models and the IPCC. It means that this (global warming from greenhouse) won't be a problem.
The Collective says that paper didn’t deny anything. Yes, within context that is the case. However, this is purposely taken out of context to form another straw man argument.
The paper does not deny the mechanism or the effects that a rise in atmospheric CO2 has on the earth’s climate. To imply that anyone who says, “Schwartz isn’t denying anything” is “goofing” is conveniently ignoring the difference between, “is” and “how much” (sounds like something Bill Clinton would say). The implication of “doesn’t deny anything” was obvious. To express this as meaning, “Schwartz is in 100% agreement with both direction and magnitude of net forcings” is to intentionally misconstrue the meaning.
Those that smugly think that this paper represents a denier’s view of C02 and climate change may want to read it, ALL of it, a little more carefully. Make sure to understand it in the context of why science questions itself, and the implications behind how confidence intervals, variance, etc… are interpreted. Gotta love it when someone pulls a single number out of a solution and quotes it like it’s the “answer”.(kinda like cherry-picking a cherry-picking).
First, if you'd like, I can pull out the arsenal. You continually act as if realclimate is some scientific, politically-neutral, objective site and reference it continually in your "debunkings." Sorry, just not so. The site is run by a number of climatologists who (as it happens) are defenders of the true faith. Anything that disagrees with Anthropogenic Greenhouse Warming must be destroyed.
No one is acting, or declaring that sites that contain explanations that debunk denier claims as “neutral”. That’s just a misrepresentation of an opponent’s position that one can beat down (the proverbial “straw man”). Deniers seem to love employing straw men arguments! “Anything that disagrees with anthropogenic…” is yet another straw man.
In regards to this, it really doesn’t matter if debunking material was hosted on a “green” site, a “Martha Stewart” site or any site for that matter. If the reasoning is sound that’s all that matters. Similarly if the reasoning is unsound, as in the case of most information coming from Exxon supported sites, it is all that matters. The fact that Exxon chooses to support such dubious propaganda has obvious connotation.
As far as the political affiliation of these quoted sites, it is moot if their reasoning is valid in debunking the misinformation speciously presented. We are certain most deniers are aware of that, and only choose to deflect the focus away from it.
Besides, what site that contains explanations debunking mythology will NOT be considered “biased” by the promoters of myth?
As far as “pulling out the arsenal”, this is the same sabre-rattling that deniers have gone on with for years on this forum. When 6 of 7 “volleys” are shown to be completely impotent (with the remaining one really just something taken out of context), there is little fear generated. That includes papers implicating albedo variations… which are shown to be faulty soon afterwards since satellite data shows no corroborating evidence.
Supply as many of the 400 links as you wish. The track record already shows that they don’t quite qualify as “denying the concept of anthropogenic factors in climate change”. That’s all that was necessary to show that it is subterfuge. Aside from the ones funded by the denial camp such as…
Douglass et al, Altitude dependence of atmospheric temperature trends: Climate models versus observation
http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/DavidDouglas2004GL020103_altitude.pdf
(LoL… Notice that the Authors include
S. Fred Singer
. Here’s the wiki-wacky on good ole Siegfried Singer… Readers can draw their own conclusions on how Exxon affects Singer’s “judgement”…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Singer
… these papers are merely proof that the discipline of science means testing any and all elements that contribute to the truth as a way of ensuring quality. Likely due to a desperate need to present peer-reviewed support, deniers like to couch the intent of such essays as, “see… here’s a bona fide denial from a real scientist”. Please.
Here comes part one of the arsenal (I suspect you'll attempt to shoot them down, so I've got more references in store for you, buddy-boy). One of those climatologists running realclimate is one Dr. Micheal Mann, a disagreeable personality if ever there was one. Most of us will recall his primary claim to fame came in 1999, when he and two others authored the infamous "hockey stick graph." There is an importance to this graph, and it's perfectly stated by one of Mann et al's scientific adversaries, Jan Esper.
In one of his many papers that disagree with Mann et al (and subsequent papers cited as supporting it), Esper stated: "So what would it mean if the reconstructions indicate a larger (Esper et al, 2002; Pollack and Smerdon, 2004; Moberg et al, 2005) or smaller (Jones et al, 1998; Mann et al, 1999) temperature amplitude? We suggest that the former situation, i.e. enhanced variability during pre-industrial times, would result in a redistribution of weight towards the role on natural factors in forcing temperature changes, thereby relatively devaluing the impact on anthropogenic emissions and affecting future predicted scenarios."~Esper et al, Climate: past ranges and future changes (Quarternary Science Reviews, 24, 2164-2166, 2005).
First an important observation…
Ever notice how climate change deniers really want to turn any discussion into a more personal fight? When one has little “science” backing them up (really “none”, but we will call it “little” for dramatic effect), it is common to try and deflect any debate into a mud-slinging match. That way, anyone witnessing it will dismiss BOTH sides as just trying to shout each other down and thereby ignore the real facts. Those without merit have nothing to lose then… see how that works?
(We fully expect some will no doubt inaptly reply to this with, “You’re good at this too, B0rg”… LoL)
Now to the matter at hand…
Jan Esper??? When The Collective was still just a lurker year, some denier tried this very same ploy against another critic and failed. Not only that. As a consequence of that attempt, that denier lost his credibility by showing a lack of understanding of basic logical concepts as well as using carefully edited half-truths to promote myth. He must have known that too, since he was curiously absent from that Climate Change threads for some time afterwards. That thread was deleted since then (and that is perhaps why someone would try this again), but we are sure that many reading this, will have read that one too. Hopefully one of them will be reading this and corroborate this historical account (
as well as let us know just WHO that emasculated denier was
).
Here, in order to misrepresent Esper, the all-important last words of Esper’s conclusion have been left out. These last words are…
“If that turns out to be the case, agreements such as the Kyoto protocol that intend to reduce emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, would be less effective than thought. This scenario, however, does not question the general mechanism established within the protocol, which we believe is a breakthrough.”
So… people… see how cherry-picking sentences out-of-context works? Leave out the sentences that don’t support your claim and put the stuff that does on a billboard. RofL.
Msg 185
honestly think I am. Understand, I'm a skeptic. I don't think it's been disproven (the anthropogenic greenhouse warming hypothesis), but with all the evidence against it, I seriously doubt what we're being told is true. Another key problem with the greenhouse/climate connection is that (according to all the ice core data) temperature change (climate change) comes BEFORE CO2 rise (main variable greenhouse gas). The laws of cause and effect say that this is impossible, the cause of an event must come before it; therefore if temperature rise occurs before rise in CO2 (and it has, historically), then it follows that temperature change can't be caused by CO2 change---if anything, the reverse would be true.
That Frogo guy was bang on in his analysis of your statement.
This whole “defies the laws of physics” shows a real lack of understanding of how multi-variable functions behave.
That is NOT a disparagement but a valid observation.
With differing periods and amplitude of many inputs one can totally expect to see instantaneous rates of change in directions opposite to the relationship of a given variable’s. This is because there are other variables cycling into the mix at various rates of interaction (all things “aren’t” equal in real life).
Applying a simplistic single variable “law of cause and effect” on a multi-variable scenario is fallacious when all important variables are in play (please don’t confuse this with thinking that science hasn’t accounted for these multiple dependencies). To assume that temperature rise independent of CO2 concentration rise is proof that there is no correlation for that single variable in a multiple dependency function is beyond hasty. It is nonsense.
This alone renders any further comment on this subject from this source pretty suspect.
Having contempt for the B0rg doesn’t change the impact of The Collective’s comments. Having contempt for academia doesn’t mean mathematical relationships become equally in contempt of reality. If one
truly
wants to understand this stuff, it may help to get the fundamentals right before taking such an ardent stance.
If one chooses to continue the defiant posturing instead of admitting they are basing opinions on a combination of regurgitation from denier sites, emotion and practical unfamiliarity rather than educated and objective research, it only reinforces the truth that deniers really have nothing. For those that wait in ambush… personal attacks, parroting and basically behaving like a bully just gives us more insight into the roots of denial, but, do not provide any support for a faulty argument.
Replies with asides, straw man arguments followed by another list of misrepresented papers (either cherry-picked, subsequently debunked, or originating from sources of ill-repute), or simply saying “You’re Wrong!” followed by a jump to another misrepresentation?
We really don’t expect anything else (well aside from the usual sniper personal attacks from flanks – Roflmao).
Refer to posting 159. Rinse, and repeat.
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
182 (
view
)
Hmm... global warming by co2?
Posted: 6/17/2008 6:44:44 PM
TRANSLATION: If I agree with the website bloggers , than it is factual. If I disagree with the website bloggers, it is just all hogwash.
RoFl. One can repeat such illogic as many times as they want, but it’s just another straw man to avoid the obvious truth that pretending to present science and calling someone on that fraud are two different things. LmAo. Go ahead. Keep repeating it.
Its my duty to repeat my charge against your repeat of claims from sites only YOU deem holy. Blogs are blogs, & agendist sites are agendist sites, no matter who they side with.
Hmm… projection is hardly a form of citation. Oh well, I guess it’s your duty. Good, you’re repeating the same deflection again.
I still fondly remember your undying blind love affair with thedailygreen.com.
Nope. That would have been the same weak attempt at equating the presentation of refuting analyses as “undying blind love”… If thedailygreen or thedailyfoamingatthemouth had essays that expose junk science, then more power too them! Whether some complete stranger to them professes to love them or not is moot. Wait a while… push out the same denial billboard and defend it with personal attacks… rOFl.
I rest my case.
One must actually have to have a case in order to rest it. Personal attacks, pretending not to understand, and wild accusations don’t make cases… well maybe on Jerry Springer, but not in real life.
The audience at large is eerily silent.
I dunno. I figure they are laughing as hard as The Collective is. Listen… you can hear it.
Here’s another quote from that prophetic message 159…
…As suspected, all this “interest” in the science behind CO2 was just an excuse to soapbox the same old denial junk Those that were honestly mistaken would have found the answers, and realized their error (… is someone going to smugly parrot this and say “yah, the error is your’s, B0rg!” now?... isn’t “priming” the audience fun?)…
There’s nothing new here. You’re just repeating yourself now… so
please refer to message 159 as it is proving to easily cover off everything you are rehashing…
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
180 (
view
)
Hmm... global warming by co2?
Posted: 6/17/2008 3:44:35 PM
...and youre doing a bang up job of it!!
Here we go again.
Sorry, but these agendist Astro-turf blog sites you try to pass off as a legit debunking wellspring:
~www.worldclimatereport.com
~www.realclimate.org
~http://rabett.blogspot.com
...are , to say the least, self serving, slanted & 2 faced. Good try though. I expected nothing less, actually.
Next time, try not using junk sites as ammunition for branding opposing viewpoints as "junk science". Some of us dont fall for it as easily as you would expect.
“Slanted”, ”2-Faced” Gotta love that name-calling… RoFL.
Nope. You’ve tried this angle before and were called on it.
These sites dismantle and discredit the skeptics who
pretend
that there is science backing them up. It is the skeptics who pretend that they are NOT astroturfing. NONE of the debunking sites provided are pretending to be anything. They are
perfectly legitimate in debunking the denial blogs
(as if you really didn’t know that).
Nice try …again since it is nothing but a weak attempt to call out an irony that doesn’t exist (just like the last time). As was said before, simple parroting is rarely apt. Who is the rube? I leave that up to the audience at large. LoL. Go ahead and say it’s “The B0rg”.
Hey! Here’s another quote from The Collective’s Prophetic Message 159…
“No real science? No real credibility. Talking in circles? Many previous posts already have the answers being avoided. Parrot this? That’s just an avoidance tactic like most personal attacks or beating straw men. Wait a while and bring the same old myths out again (like they are something new)? That’s what deniers do… over and over and over…”
LMAO. Come on… try a new angle. Name-calling, personal attack and illogical parroting doesn’t cut it.
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
178 (
view
)
Hmm... global warming by co2?
Posted: 6/17/2008 12:34:15 PM
Executive Summary
RofL. It’s all the same old junk again. (with a few newer ones thrown in to make it look fresh).
In Detail…
Zhen & Shan
The Article:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Media/docs/Zhen-Shan--Xiuan-MeteorAtmosPhys-2007-d1227bc1-3183-456f-a935-69c263af1904.pdf
The subsequent debunking of said article:
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2007/03/16/the-coming-global-cooling/
Verdict: Sketchy innuendo and JUNK.
Khilyuk & Chilingar
This is Chilingar. You’ll find his junk-science plastered all over denier sites.
The debunking of said article:
http://www.realclimate.org/wiki/index.php?title=L._F._Khilyuk_and_G._V._Chilingar&redirect=no
Verdict: Chilingar? Come on, be serious. This is JUNK incarnate.
Lindzen
The Article:
http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Lindzen1997.pdf
Classic misinformation, classically debunked:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/04/lindzen-point-by-point/
Verdict: J-U-N-K spells JUNK.
Gerlich & Tscheuschner
The Article:
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0707/0707.1161v3.pdf
The subsequent debunking of said article (Jury is still out on whether it is peer-reviewed):
http://www.realclimate.org/wiki/index.php?title=G._Gerlich_and_R._D._Tscheuschner
Read in detail:
http://rabett.blogspot.com/2008/02/kramm-steps-on-another-rake-just-when.html
Verdict: Absolutely full of hot air and… JUNKiTY jUNKity Junk!
Idso
The Article:
http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/idso98.pdf
Idso? Denier Supreme. Please… yet another “Astroturf” Exxon-funded think tank operator.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_E._Idso
Verdict: JUNK JUNK JUNK
Singer
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Singer
This is not even worthy of comment (unless one also agrees that smoking has no unhealthy effects…. ROFL)
Verdict: JUNK INFINITY.
Schwartz
The article:
http://www.ecd.bnl.gov/steve/pubs/HeatCapacity.pdf
The analysis:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/09/climate-insensitivity/
Verdict: Hey! A paper that is actually worthy, but, alas isn’t really denying anything… oh well, that’s what happens when people are clutching at straws.
So… that’s 6 out of 7 that are purely junk, while the one remaining, is not really supporting claims by the denial camp. This is the typical mode of operation. Namedrop and hope no one actually reads the documents and finds that they are either junk or not really in support.
Despite what we all hear in the media (TV, newspapers, etc.), the science is far from settled on the topic at hand. One early poster asked if there were any peer-reviewed papers stating that greenhouse is either greatly exaggerated or a non-factor. I can reference several. Here are some:
Nope. There still aren’t any legitimate papers that provide the level of support that deniers claim as the source of their discontent. These citations are the usual host of contrived findings (you know… the “I think it’s should be this, so I’ll manipulate and cherry pick the data to prove it”. So far one has referenced NONE. Gotta love it when the denial camp thinks they finally have peer-reviewed support for their claims. If there really was one, it would get a ticker-tape parade and a 100 foot shrine built in honor of it… RoFl.
Before some of you ask why I referenced some papers that are clearly out-dated, it's because the claim of advocates and alarmists that there's no published work disputes their claim: that climate change is caused by human greenhouse emissions which, if left unchecked, will cause a human global catastrophe.
Wow. There’s so many straw men here it’s like a “Wizard of Oz” convention. No published works? No. The criticism is that
there are no credible works
. It is pretty clear that there is a great deal of effort by deniers to get something past “peer review” as “proof” that there are alternate findings. Most if not all of this “proof” that the current understanding is wrong is conjured confusion at best. Nice try, but this is the usual propaganda masquerading as science.
“Will cause a human global catastrophe”… Yep. Yet another straw man, the “alarmist” view is the typical exaggeration by deniers to paint the scientific community as zealots. Nope. The truth is that anthropogenic contributions to climate change are significant enough to raise concern… (as opposed to being of Hollywood disaster movie epic proportions).
Al Gore mentioned it in his movie, and it's often repeated or implied in many media, and they usually cite the work of Naomi Oreskes, published in Nature (if memory serves) in 2004. She allegedly covered the peer-reviewed literature from 1993-2004, and found no papers that disputed that claim. That, from those few that I've cited above, shows that to be completely false.
We can cherry-pick almost anything to provide support for an agenda. So far, with the 7 papers cited, only 1 is acceptable, and even it is taken out-of-context. Even if someone’s claim of “not a single paper” was completely false, that does not negate the current science (no matter how one employs this subtle innuendo).
Additionally, I can cite numerous papers with alternative explanations (all scientific, found in the peer-reviewed literature) for the warming, including dozens that cite solar influences. Yes, that thing that advocates poo-poo as the basic cause of climate change is still alive and well as such in the peer-reviewed literature. I can cite several that show that the historical actions of co2 and temperature are the reverse of what must be if co2 rise causes temperature to rise---it would violate the laws of physics if co2 followed temp rise and still caused it, which is what advocates are saying. I can cite over 100 papers that show that (within the last millenium) temperatures and co2 levels don't correlate (basically, they are temp reconstructions that show that the Earth didn't have stable climate during an age of stable greenhouse gasses).
Sure you can. There’s no argument that there are many influences on the temperature of the globe INCLUDING solar influences. The implication is that those who agree with the current science think man is the main factor. This is wholly false, and yet another straw man.
All this smoke-and-mirrors is like saying that a leaky boat has a natural cause so poking a few holes isn’t gonna make a difference. Hey! You can detect the natural leak so any manmade leak is of no consequence.
For those of you who claim that it's a settled notion, you'd best think again. Science isn't done by consensus, and there isn't one on the subject at hand.
Here’s another bit of smoke-and-mirrors. The science is a logical and tested process. Findings are corroborated by consensus. This does not make the science “done by consensus”.
Arriving at the same results by different means is a common way of proving hypotheses. One can also expect a certain amount of conflicting results. This is the nature of experimentation (especially when measuring for results amongst a lot of background noise). Deniers love to cherry-pick the results rejected due to background scatter as “proof” that the current science is wrong. Better yet, they love to postulate that if something is true, there is NO SUCH THING as scientific error (that all measurement will be absolutely in corroboration of theory). Hence any error is proof that a theory is incorrect. LoL.
Science isn’t done by consensus, but findings are certainly reinforced by it. Nice try.
With the large number of papers published in the peer-reviewed literature skeptical of the role of greenhouse gas emissions in the claims of advocates and alarmists. In short, the claims that we're headed to doomsday if we don't do what alarmists say are questionable, at best, and certainly shouldn't subject the whole of humanity to the forcible obedience to the whims of unfounded alarmism.
A large number in peer-reviewed journals? Not by a long shot when we consider the miniscule percentage they represent. As has been said, if there is an agenda to slip a paper past peer review, eventually some will get through. However, as we see, the ones being quoted are easily debunked by experts in the field. That’s all these “papers” represent.
Claims of doomsday? This is the same straw man being propped up again. Note how it is preceded by a reference that connects “advocates and alarmists”, even though only an alarmist will suggest we are heading towards a “doomsday”. Subterfuge to promote disinformation is the nature of “unfounded” denial.
Read the real stuff people. Deniers love to group any that disagree with their unsubstantiated claims as “alarmists”. This is just the usual scare-mongering of “it’s a conspiracy!” or that agreeing with the science is “sheep” mentality. Come to think of it, credibility was already proven to be hovering around zero for certain sources as well as those that speciously present them.
Finally, let The Collective quote itself with a prediction from message 159, Feb 29 2008 about deniers that has come true…
“Wait a while and bring the same old myths out again (like they are something new)? That’s what deniers do… over and over and over…”
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
130 (
view
)
Short Vs Fat comments. Why does one seem less offensive?
Posted: 6/4/2008 4:16:47 PM
^^^^^^ Hey OP....you don't have to be a smart*** and call people names because they posted a reply in your thread. If they just decided to reply about the first line of your post they are entitled to.....
Nope. The OP resorted to name-calling after repeated personal attacks and coy deflection. It’s not a behaviour The Collective supports, but it is fully understandable considering the blatant deflection employed by others (i.e. the constant ridicule like “get over it” instead of addressing the topic). The name-calling was NOT merely because “they posted a reply”.
As far as entitlement, the OP is not restricting entitlement to practice avoidance by deflection, deliberate misinterpretation or personally attacking the OP. He is just pointing it out. This is just another straw man employed to appeal to sycophants. Let’s not confuse entitlement with sticking to the topic. We are all entitled to behave as sincerely or insincerely as we wish. Merely bullying the OP or changing the topic to be about his demeanor tells us that people may not have a counterpoint. We are all entitled to show the audience this, or, alternately discuss the topic and show a facet of ourselves that indicates something beyond grade school immaturity.
Besides I think your thread is crap…..you’re just jumping on the bandwagon to soften the egos of short guys who believe the entire dating world is against them..
Everyone is welcome to their opinion, however it is certainly disingenuous to declare a thread unworthy, yet take the time to both read and post on it. (That seems to a curious and contradictory habit of any ubiquitous self-appointed thread critic for the masses). LoL. Incidentally, opinions unsupported by evidence are merely hearsay and essentially propaganda. The collective finds many threads on this forum unworthy… strangely enough B0rg neither reads or posts on them… go figure!
How this thread attempts to soften the egos of short guys is unsubstantiated. Please feel free to elaborate.
There has been no claim that the entire dating world is against short guys. This is just putting words in the mouth of the OP to create another straw man argument.
And everyone gets offensive comments made against them in some way during their lifetime…...regardless of stature or weight..
This is the typical non-sequitur argument used to defend petty dismissal. The whole premise of this thread is about the RELATIVE disparity between acceptance of lack-of-height disparagement and excessive-fat disparagement.
Short disparagement may rank in nth place, but as long as fat disparagement is n + 1 or beyond, the OP’s premise is correct.
Most of us have figured out that everyone can and will be the target of disparagement at any given time. However, how often it is considered acceptable by those within earshot is the focus of this discussion. Feel free to ignore this thread if you think it is a waste of time, or is largely made of excrement (It don’t stink if you don’t hang around and smell it.)
OP:
A lot of the audience lurking about can see who is earnestly discussing a topic, and who resorts to juvenile bullying. Some may actually be trying to understand the situation. Then again, perhaps some really lack reading comprehension while others do mean to shut down any thread that tells truths they don’t want others to hear. Regardless, you have done your part to expose these dynamics. Don’t let the trolls get the better of you. Misery loves company.
Everybody:
If we are to criticize, then let’s give equal criticism to all parties when admonishing bad behaviour like name-calling. That can include the OP (for resorting to it under duress), but it also includes those that disparage him with deflections into his character or repeated badgering and ridicule. Better yet, let’s stick to the topic.
The statistics on the jokes is a good start. JD’s comments are always thought provoking, as is the post from Eyes and others. Got something ON TOPIC? Let’s hear it instead of the sniping.
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
63 (
view
)
Short Vs Fat comments. Why does one seem less offensive?
Posted: 5/30/2008 5:23:06 PM
Msg 59
Short Vs Fat comments. Why does one seem less offensive?
Because a lot of people don't see "short" as a negative description of height... It is used like "brunette" or "blue-eyed" to pin-point someone's particular identity --to sort someone from the rest...
It seems pretty neutral to label it "name-calling" and get offended over it.
Nope. The context and the negative intention behind deliberately pointing out a person’s relative height are quite clear in most cases. In general, people can tell the difference between a derogatory comment and a mere statement of fact.
It is NOT used the same way hair or eye color is used. The examples of “brunette” or “blue-eyed” are inapt since these are values of variables that don’t’ have a clear and consistent hierarchy (No. Most people do not know which wavelength of visible light is longer. Furthermore, there isn’t a prevalence of “must be blond and blue-eyed” in men’s ads… where as “height” restrictions are far more frequent and proudly endorsed). When we mention someone as blue-eyed there is not the IMPLIED comparison to an “average” value, nor is it saying it is anything less than an ideal value. However, “short” is a relative description and often meant as a pejorative as in the examples noted by the OP. Besides, in most situations, the height of a person is irrelevant.
To say that comments on height are usually innocuous is to deliberately gloss over how they are rarely used as anything but disparagement. Making fun of a person’s height (or lack there-of) in front of peers is about as “neutral” as making fun of a person’s ethnicity.
If it were truly neutral, it wouldn’t even come up in conversation, much less as contempt thinly disguised as comedy.
"Fat" always will be insulting in this society, unless instead of you, it describes your wallet!
Disparagement is disparagement. It could be about one’s choice in dessert. It could be about one’s innate nose shape. It is still disparagement. Many dating sites ask for height in clear terms, while body shape needs only a vague and euphemistic opinion. This in itself indicates a disparity in the acceptance of revilement between height and body fat ratio.
As far as the OP’s comments that there is more acceptance of short derision than that of body fat derision, he is absolutely on the mark. The glib attempts at deflection, the ridicule and sarcastic comments to discourage discussion on these “short guy” threads prove it on a daily basis.
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
1433 (
view
)
Ladies: your take on short guys?
Posted: 4/30/2008 1:12:10 PM
Executive Summary
= = = = = = = = = = =
Re: Message 1424
The question is always around the rationality of height filtering and this merely attempts to deflect that query. Application and applicability are two different things.
A relationship of “jealousy to shortness” is only uncovering a symptom related to the bigotry of heightism.
This is a forum discussion on the roots of height bigotry. Discuss the issue or prove by the deliberate employment of deflection and intimidation that one has absolutely no defense.
Re: Message 1434 and the like.
Resorting to tired old myths and disparaging remarks are further proof that heightism is nothing but projected self-image issues.
= = = = = = = = = = =
Msg 1424
You'll get no argument here - the question is, are the tall men really better managers, or are taller men being promoted over more deserving shorter men due to superficial perceptions?
The true talent of a supervisor is in the perceptions of those below them in rank. If height is an important component of that, then that is a consideration.
As mentioned in message 1426, this is merely obfuscation. By equating all criteria based solely on existence, it ignores the relative merit of the filter itself. If this were validation, then any and all filters, regardless of rationality (filters by ethnicity, left-handedness, star positions, roll of a die, etc…) are equally valid by virtue of merely being applied.
Nope. The question is always around the rationality of height filtering and this merely attempts to deflect that query. Application and applicability are two different things.
As to 'substantive discussion' - for every one poster who can manage a thought, there are ten who find the use of two-syllable words highfalutin. Concepts like 'Napoleon complex' are just a crutch for the thinking impaired.
Technically the term "Napoleon Complex" does not exist as a mental disorder. It's a social stereotype aimed at short men. The working term for this is "inferiority complex" and it is based on Alfred Adler's work. The word Napoleon was coupled with is, as Adler used Napoleon as an example. Actually, Napoleon was said to be of average height for a Frenchman of that period.
True. Whether “Napoleon Complex” is sanctioned psychiatric term or not is irrelevant, as is how Napoleon’s actual height related to his average of his contemporaries. However, the fact that a stereotype of a false correlation between a lack of height and the having an inferiority complex is one of the most common excuses employed is relevant.
Related to this subject, there was a study at Cornell in 2005 where men become aggressive if they feel their masculinity is threatened. Height was not directly researched in this, but inferences may be made as you please. It's not a long stretch if masculinity perceived by females is relative to height.
This diversion to masculinity and the loss thereof is a sly attempt to label any opponent to height restriction as only reacting to a perceived loss of manliness. This is non sequitur. The truth is that bigotry is a repugnant act which causes many (be they tall, short, male or female) to speak out against it.
Another study published recently from the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, ties shorter stature to a higher levels of jealousy among males, but a study from the University of Central Lancashire, found short men were less aggressive. However the British study included only 20 men and the study in the Netherlands contained 219 men. As far as the study goes since they are not the exact same sort of experiment it is like comparing apples and oranges.
Sporadic anecdotal citation like this is meaningless. It is “cherry-picking”. Weak defenses are created based on biased selection of empirical data. We are pretty sure we can find a poorly constructed analysis for anything. However, only quoting the bad ones would not negate findings by more reliable studies.
As far as the “jealousy to shortness” correlation, that would be the usual “cart before the horse”. One could perform a statistically significant study on the relationship between, “satisfaction of pay rate vs. gender” and likely find that women are generally less satisfied. Of course, that is only a exposing the fact that women are paid far less than men for equal jobs. Similarly, a relationship of “jealousy to shortness” is only uncovering a symptom related to the bigotry of heightism.
There are all kinds of preferences that people have when choosing a date. Height may and or may not be one of them. Just because someone has a preference, does not make them a "shallow skank". It makes them a person with preferences.
This is yet again the weak attempt to deflect the discussion with the truism that “filters exist” and purposely ignores the rationality of any given filter. The discussion is about the filter based on height. Having a filter doesn’t indicate that someone as shallow or not. Having a filter on height, does indicate that the person is behaving irrationally (with the possible exception where they are choosing within a height range above AND below but near their own height).
Repeatedly shrouding illogical choices in false logic, badgering opposition with suggestions that they are “whining”, changing or hijacking a topic are all actions common to those who wish to not have certain truths exposed. As far as being a shallow person, this may require more analysis.
Just remember when you are trying to find a date, that it is not a helpful strategy to sit around and bemoan the reasons why you don't have one. This calls attention to your, pardon the pun, shortcomings. It makes you look like a bitter person, and that is not a very attractive feature in anyone, regardless of their position in life.
Speaking of typical tactics, this only attempts to make critics reluctant to speak out lest they be seen as “bitter”. It is good to see it though as it serves as a reminder to how prejudice is often defended by fear mongering. Rather than discuss the issue, focus is redirected towards a potential “personal cost” for opposing the view of the dogmatist.
It is irrelevant. This is a forum discussion on the roots of height bigotry. Discuss the issue or prove by the deliberate employment of deflection and intimidation that one has absolutely no defense.
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
112 (
view
)
2012 & astronomical facts?
Posted: 4/28/2008 1:57:56 PM
From here to in Trinity! Fatboy? Was that dropped on Nagaroshima by “Bock’s Gay”? Fiction becomes fact, in many ways people. Getting the Fats, err, we mean “Facts” mixed up really doesn’t help with credibility. Speaking of which:
Msg 98
Einstein himself stated that if you have to explain something in terms that only you and a select other few could understand, you really didn't understand it yourself.
This is a bit of fiction commonly misattributed to Albert Einstein or Richard Feynman. It is most likely a variation of a passage from Kurt Vonnegut’s novel “Cat’s Cradle”:
“Dr. Hoenikker used to say that any scientist who couldn't explain to an eight-year-old what he was doing was a charlatan.”
Einstein did maintain that fundementals of the physical universe would be basic in construct. However, it is foolish to construe this to mean that a theorist’s understanding is directly related to the simplicity of his or her explanation. The audience must have a certain level of cognitive skill and comprehension which likely far exceeds that of the average eight year old. These embellishments offer dramatic flavour in novels and stage plays, but reality requires real science not something conveniently profound. Merely having contempt for academia and a random hypothesis does not make one’s “science” a rival of any significance.
I wonder what Einstein had to say about delusions of grandeur? (Then again he wasn’t a psychiatrist).
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
1375 (
view
)
Ladies: your take on short guys?
Posted: 4/25/2008 5:32:13 PM
Executive Summary
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
No one needs to be aware of causes of their actions or even aware of their own reactions and still be slave to them.
No one has ever argued that people have no right to choice.
Discussing behaviour isn’t the same thing as trying to directly change it within those who exhibit it.
Projection plays a very big role in height restriction.
The excuse of “biological instinct” to explain heightism is as always, just an excuse as there is no basis for it.
There are very few men who would have a “blond and busty” restriction (far fewer than women with “must be tall”).
Perceives? That would apply if restrictions weren’t written in black and white in ads. It’s not a “perception”, it’s a reality.
These threads provide insight into the personal growth necessary to escape from this immaturity.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Attraction DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.. it isn't logical. It just is.
Unfortunately, this is just the usual plea to nature or randomness. Firstly, it isn’t nature or random. The behaviour is closely linked to lowered self-esteem and perceived need to compensate a self-image in the observer. Nature has little if anything to do with it. Secondly, as far as a behaviour being “logical”, this assumes that a person must “understand” and be sentient of their actions in order to behave a certain way. That is a fallacy. No one needs to be aware of causes of their actions or even aware of their own reactions and still be slave to them. This is how conditioning works. In extreme cases, the person is so protective of this “master” (deliberately or otherwise) that any suggestion that they are behaving irrationally is met with indignant resistance.
I think part of the problem is the concept that women (poeple really) HAVE to find a partner. I don't.. and so I can be picky.
Nope. There’s no imperative that anyone has to have a partner (or partners). That is irrelevant. As far as being picky, that’s a personal choice, and again, the usual straw man of “I have the right to choice”. No one has ever argued that people have no right to choice.
Now if I was complaining that I couldn't find a partner and had expressed that that was a serious goal.. then I could be criticized for overlooking some men because they didn't meet my ridiculously high standards.. and yes, my standards ARE ridiculously high (for me.. but this is relative) I don't, nor do I think I should have to, apologize for them. That's my right, and my choice to date whom "I" think is right for me.
Nope. If there is criticism it has always been for the irrationality of height thresholds (which is usually manifested as “must be over the average height of men). The relative highness or lowness of a standard is really not relevant to this discussion. Why certain standards exist is. If one’s standards include height restriction, it may have importance to argue that it is innate (which it isn’t) or that it is not irrational (which it is). At any rate no one is asking for an apology nor are they asking for irreverence. They are asking if anyone has a rational reason.
I think some women make a decision about what they find attractive by trial and error.. and KNOWING what does it for them, and what doesn't. There's no point in trying to change their minds.
“Trial and error”? If that were true, there would far more restrictions like, “no jerks please” instead of “must be over 6 ft”. “Knowing”? That’s just the usual circular argument of “I like what I like”. Discussing behaviour isn’t the same thing as trying to directly change it within those who exhibit it. I suppose if we were discussing astrophysics, we are necessarily trying to change the movement of celestial objects? Nope.
That would be like telling a guy who is a breast man to only date women who are flatchested.. or a leg man that even if a woman has legs like a tree stump it is "shallow" of him and he should give her a chance. What it will come down to is that he will NOT be as attracted to her as he would someone with a great set of gams... and that WILL affect the relationship.
It would be similar if there were as many ads by men that said “must have at least a C cup”, or “must have legs till Tuesday” in comparison to women’s ads that say “must be tall”. Since that isn’t even remotely the case, this only tries to introduce behaviour that doesn’t exist at anywhere near the same rate. Also did anyone else notice the “only” date instead of consider things outside the preference range of values? If men had a criterion based on projected self-image issues then by all means we should explore the reasons behind it. Of course we have to identify one actually like height restriction, and then start a thread on it.
There is competition between men that women never see... I know this.
Right… that is why men are ever so fearful of showing up to a party with the same suit, or, that their friends will judge them on their choice of shoes. We always can’t wait to go the restroom together so we can trash talk about that guy who showed up at the bar “out of his league”. We are always bragging about how much our Gucci man-purse cost. RoFl. This is about as mythical as it gets. Remember that projection plays a very big role in height restriction.
Somewhere back in time there came a biological imperative that larger males were the more attractive... you can see this in apes... a silverback gorilla (dominant male) is 3 times the size of a female... humans have evolved so that men are, on average, larger.. and I DO believe there is a subconscious genetic attraction for women to choose men who are bigger than them. Does it make modern logical sense? Is it politically correct? No. But biology is an instinctual thing..
Does that explanation make logical sense? Nope. Is it politically correct? Irrelevant. Is it “instinctual”? Nope.
Anyone also notice the subtle but critical shift from “taller” to “larger” here? If women truly were influence by such an instinct, then most ads would read like “must be larger or more muscular” instead of “must be tall or taller”. Furthermore, this size issue has been debunked as many times as it has come up. The subconscious attraction you are speaking of is for the “leader” of the pack. That’s translates to the man with the respect of other men; the man with all the toys. That usually doesn’t translate to sheer size. It’s a combination of guile, smarts, skill and physicality. It’s not height.
The excuse of “biological instinct” to explain heightism is as always, just an excuse as there is no basis for it.
I understand the feeling of people who feel "left out" because they don't fit the modern standard of "attractiveness". I'm not blond or busty (and have some native indian in my background, so I'm dark also.. I HAVE experienced racism even though I'm 90% European background).
That most defenders of heightism always parallel it with the suggestion that many or most men want “blond and busty” tends to explain how the influence of media is an underlying cause of both. The idealized women for most men are far more varied than Hollywood attempts to narrowly focus. Apparently, men in general are not as concerned with what Hollywood tells them to like. Even if it were so, there are very few men who would have a “blond and busty” restriction (far fewer than women with “must be tall”).
Being 90% European in a European dominated society hardly qualifies someone as knowing what a person of a clearly visible minority goes through. This isn’t saying that someone hasn’t experienced ethnic intolerance, but it is a whole different level. Personally, I have no idea what a 5foot2 guy has to go through, but if the amount of bullying and dismissal that goes on here is any indication, it’s a whole lot worse than being 90% of the dominant race.
I have narrow hips (no "hourglass" here) Some men find my figure far too boyish to be attractive.. this was emotionally painful to me as a young woman. Yes, it hurts not to be one of the "beautiful" people. But.. I have come to the conclusion that the only person I can change is myself, and I can't even do that in an authentic and healthy way if I don't love myself first, accept who I am, warts and all. There will always be obstacles and limits for people... each one of us has our challenges and unfortunately life is not fair.
So how many ads from men clearly state “must not have boyish figures”? A lot less than women’s ads that state “must be tall”. Not one of the beautiful people? The Collective personally knows quite a few people that are members and non-members of that club. Hurting is pretty much independent of membership. What an irony. The ability to change oneself seems obvious, yet so few defenders of heightism can move away from irrational behaviour. Instead, they will cling to all sorts of false logic to defend or justify irrational behaviour.
There are always obstacles for everyone. However, until there are just as many ads from men clearly stating, “must blond and busty” this comparison is meaningless and only serves to reprimand those who are marginalized by artificial stigma.
I like the saying, if life gives you lemons, make lemonade. If one percieves an obstacle that is an opportunity for personal growth and self-actualization.
Perceives? That would apply if restrictions weren’t written in black and white in ads. It’s not a “perception”, it’s a reality.
As far opportunity for personal growth… Right on. So height restrictors should realize this. The problem is not with the shorter guys. The problem is within those who uphold irrational behaviour. These threads provide insight into the personal growth necessary to escape from this immaturity.
“Resistance is Futile”
B0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
18 (
view
)
Invisible to our light spectrum ??????
Posted: 4/23/2008 5:24:24 PM
Yeah… there’s gotta be some new camera out there that can detect planets that only show up on conspiracy websites. I think there’s one made by a manufacturer called Mayan. Ask for model 2012.
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
28 (
view
)
The movie 21: the game show problem (3 doors and one car)
Posted: 4/17/2008 4:54:17 PM
Nova,
Probably flogging a dead “goat”… but here’s how 33/66 can appear to be 50/50…
Monty’s (the game show host) selection is constrained by conditions above and beyond completely unconstrained selection. By completely unconstrained, we mean that you, the car and Monty independently select 1 of the three doors. Unconstrained, Monty could potentially choose the same door as you, the same door as the car, or 1 in 9 times (or really 3 in 27 times) you all would choose the very same door.
However, in the case of the Monty Hall dilemma, Rain, Hank, Scorpio, Gasoline and Charles all identify the chance-altering effect of the constraints to which Monty selects his door. Let’s look at the 9 different scenarios with you choosing door A. Note that there also 9 scenarios for you choosing door B and a further 9 for you choosing door C. However, the doors are essentially all interchangeable (i.e. we could take the sign off door A and put it on door C without affecting the game).
So… Why is 50/50 not really 50/50…
To expand on all these brilliant posts… Here are the nine scenarios:
The first three columns represent the door selected by each entity. The column marked “Status” identifies whether the outcome is even possible. The last two columns represent the outcomes if you stay or you switch.
You Car Monty Status Stay Result Switch Result
--- --- ----- ----------- ----------- -------------
A A A xBlock/xCar
A A B valid A=Win C=Lose
A A C valid A=Win B=Lose
A B A xBlock
A B B xCar
A B C valid A=Lose B=Win
A C A xBlock
A C B valid A=Lose C=Win
A C C xCar
Notice how there is only four possible outcomes due to the constraints of the game. For instance, Row 1 “A A A” could
never
occur as this violates the rule that Monty cannot reveal the car and that he cannot choose a door blocked by you. Hence there are only four remaining scenarios.
Of those four scenarios, if you stay, there are two wins and two losses. If you switch, there are also two wins and two losses. At an initial glance; it seems that the chance remains 50/50. However, two of the scenarios (the first two in the table above) occur for the first set of “you-car” pairs (the A-A pair). Since one of these scenarios is impossible (within the rules of the game) that means there are 2 outcomes with a 50/50 chance for that “you-car” pairing.
In the second block of “you-car” (the A-B pair) outcomes, only
one
of the scenarios is possible. This means it is 100% of this 1/3 of all outcomes. The same applies to the third pairing (the A-C pair) of outcomes.
Now… there are two options available to the contestant at this stage: Stay or switch. As you can see, staying will mean 100% chance of winning in the first 3/9 scenarios, but a 100% chance of losing in the remaining 6/9. This translates to:
100 x 1/3 = 33% of winning if you stay.
If you look at the last column, that of switching, the win/loss is reversed.
100 x 2/3 = 66% of winning if you switch.
So even though, it looks like 50/50 in either case when scanning the results of the STAY or SWITCH columns, the constraints enforced by the game’s rules distribute the win/loss scenarios differently between the “you-car” pairings. Monty’s choice of doors is
constrained
by these pairings. That is the key.
It is the constraints set forth by the rules of the game that blocks certain outcomes, and therefore “imbalances” the odds of the outcome. The status column also shows how the “spreading out” of xBlock and xCar in the last two sets of three scenarios, along with the guaranteed outcomes of those last two scenarios puts favour towards one course of action.
However, in real life…
Door A = Goat
Door B = Goat
Door C = Two Goats.
Outside = B0rg driving around with new car.
… just “kid”ding!
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
1169 (
view
)
Ladies: your take on short guys?
Posted: 4/16/2008 1:17:00 PM
Executive Summary
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Bullying is still bullying. Ridicule is still ridicule. They are intentionally off topic and only prove there is likely no defense.
No one is demanding change or even a defense. The roots of the behaviour are being discussed… that is all. Trying to shame people off the topic is only showing that some are very sensitive to the truth behind it.
It’s not shallow. Some only hope that they can be afforded that superficiality.
It’s the same old straw men being beaten to deflect the issue.
No one can quit “shorting” or “talling” LoL. Anyone (yes, anyone) can quit, start or continue smoking. (People can choose to quit ridiculing and discuss the topic too).
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Msg 1169
many people put preferences on here and people don't go and start up threads because of it
(There’s no intention to steal Northeastern thunder as we are certain he can dismantle this deflection just as easily) That is irrelevant. Firstly, the existence of plaintiffs for other issues is wholly independent of this behaviour. Secondly, the example chosen, that of
smoking is a voluntary lifestyle
. Thirdly, these threads are more about uncovering the roots of the behaviour rather than a “complaint fest”. The mislabeling is purposeful by some in order to dismiss any discussion of this as merely “whining”. If one truly does not want to read about this or listen to apparent “whining”, they could easily surf right past it. To stay and shout down the opposition is only an attempt to censor others from discussion… curious how that is the very “controlling others” that defenders of height requirements are so critical of.
Discuss the topic if you care or ignore it if you don’t. Name-calling and ridiculing is neither of those options.
Msg 1167…
northeast25 and other who just don't get it
No… NorthEast and other who are arguing along a similar line, do completely “get it”. It is pretending that a thread discussing the aversion to lack-of-height by a noticeable number of ads by women seeking men online is about changing the minds of the zealot, that is speciously “not getting it”. Name-calling, and ridiculing is merely bullying and only proves the point that those who defend this behaviour really have nothing to disprove that
it is tied into lowered self-esteem
. Feel free to prove this wrong (hey, you don’t “have to”, but then again, no one has to come here and bully either unless they are just trying to stop others from talking about this).
“Shallow”? Whether any given height restrictor is shallow remains to be seen and is really not necessary to determine the cause of the behaviour. The behaviour is all about projection and denial. Often, people hope to be labeled as shallow as it evokes the kind of superficiality that the stereotypical aloof Hollywood star might have. By so doing, they hope to inherit the idealized attributes that those who can afford to be superficial have. In reality, the roots of lack-of-height aversion are all about the projection of a negative self-image and the insecurity it causes rather than a true knowledge of self.
Msg 1163…
erm, how about, that is wrong? Actually **** it your ALL WRONG!
this heightism business lives in your heads! GET OVER something you can't change and be confident in the person you are! Above all confidence in YOURSELF will land you quality women not your freakin' height!
Its all in your head, Joe. All in your head.
to the gentleman that wrote that...THANK YOU! and lois you were right, kind of given up on this whole topic since certain people are WAAAYY too insecure with themselves to be able to look at things objectively and give opinions that aren't full of gibberish and nonsense. and guess what? i've actually been talking to a guy who is 2 inches shorter than me and he's fantastic! so it really doesn't matter if you have the proper approach. it is a preference, not written in stone guys!
It is absurd to state that such behaviour is completely conjured by would-be victims and vicarious observer alike, when explicit height restrictions are easily encountered on women seeking men ads here (as well as other online sites). The amount of badgering and off-topic ranting in lieu of discussion in attempts to silence these threads is also a strong clue that this behaviour not only exists, but is a product of lowered self-esteem that many critics have identified.
For that reason, the collective thanks the author of that absolute falsehood too. It helps to show how defenders of irrational behaviours can be in denial of the truth. Having the ability to compensate does not address the obstacle that some need to overcome. It is the obstacle and why it exists we are addressing here. Very few “nice-but-really-must-haves” are as prevalent as lack-of-height aversion online. Merely saying to those facing these obstacles, “get over it, we all have obstacles” is purposely ignoring this disparity.
The discussion isn’t about those that really only hold height as a nice-to-have. It’s about those that hold it as a must-have. The constant euphemistic use of “preference” should not be confused with the genuine use of it (no matter how often some try). If one truly does not hold such irrationality then their anecdotal experience is essentially irrelevant to this.
Incidentally, ascribing “certain people” that are not swayed by illogical arguments as “insecure” or prone to “gibberish and nonsense” is merely name-calling and an attempt to discredit their argument. If one cannot counter the point, resorting to personal attack is usually indicative of an indefensible position.
Just resorting to calling people “whiners”? RoFl. Discuss the topic, or concede, by action or inaction otherwise, that you have nothing to offer in defense of this behaviour.
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
30 (
view
)
2012 & astronomical facts?
Posted: 4/10/2008 6:33:12 PM
The remnants of human in B0rg are laughing too hard. All interplanetary maps for this sector show no such satellite in orbit about your system. Perhaps you detected the trans-warp signature of our cube patrolling within 10 LY of the region.
Mankind may have been spared assimilation since absorption of such spurious thought would seriously damage the Collective. However, we will cruise by in 2012 to pick up profits from the sale of aluminum foil hats.
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
Msg:
22 (
view
)
God and The Question Of Logic
Posted: 4/9/2008 5:52:12 PM
Executive Summary
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If a meta-physical entity wished to remain hidden to resident consciousness, it would be unlikely to choose an illogically constructed universe, as such a universe will require intervention to continue when it fails. Intervention leads to discovery.
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Detailed Version
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Does not logic reduce to the single maxim that true and false are opposite? The very device we use to converse with on this forum is derived from that elemental notion. The arena of quantum mechanics may grey the distinction between the two, but fundamentally still relies on this basic truism.
Can illogical universes exist? Certainly they can. Are they stable?
No
they are not stable. Should a set of rules that define a universe be illogical, there exists the possibility and high probability given enough time, of non-resolvable conflicts in outcome. This is not the same as say a simple singularity, discontinuity or multiplicity. This is about states that cannot occur simultaneously, yet are destined to occur. Think of a simple universe where a situation exists of 5=8, and 8>5 and 5 simultaneously does not even exist. That is beyond being a singularity (as in dividing by zero). It is not a merely a discontinuity since the concept of 5 exists and is measurable. It is not just a multiplicity of solutions since there is a contradiction between known values of 5 so that one solution makes the other impossible. It is a logical flaw, and will collapse that hypothetical universe.
Now, the astute will see that such a universe can occur if the value (or even existence) of 5 is dynamic. In that sense, a meta-physical entity can control a universe that will collapse by merely allowing the impossible to occur without its dire consequence. We do this in the universe of our dreams. Seemingly impossible states can continue because the laws of that nightly universe are dynamic. We are to our dreams as a god is to a universe that need not be logical. We can model the same events with a digital simulation (complete with illogical constructs that will “hang the program” and the ability to continue a locked process by changing laws or values midstream).
As far as or own universe being illogical we must consider that there are multiple conscious observers who also interact within the real universe. If there is but one entity that contains a consciousness (not an automaton) that even passively observes, it is unlikely that an illogical universe can exist without the detection of meta-physical intervention. Given enough time, “passengers” will notice the bus is being steered. This is the end that both science and religion seek to discover: the former by demonstrating that all chaos is but an illusion due only to “order unresolved” and the latter by proving that order can and has been spawned from chaos by something that eludes us.
In this logical universe, it may not be possible to prove the existence of the metaphysical if no demand for the metaphysical is required (that’s not the same thing as praying for “divine intervention”, we are talking about logical errors that cause “blue screens of death”). This is because in a logical universe, no outside intervention is necessary as it won’t fail from a bug in the program. In other words, a logical bus merrily drives itself down the road and there is no detected driver or conductor. Since a logical bus never gets “stuck” we may not detect a driver or any “outside influence” steering or pushing it along.
If it is illogical, someone on the “bus” is going to eventually notice the reset of certain registers, as an irrecoverable error will occur.
Also consider that it doesn’t mean that as a created “bus”, that the bus-builder is overseeing, or all knowledgeable of its course. A created bus can and may steer itself, and as a bus that never gets stuck, there is no requirement that the builder understands or be fully aware of the state of the bus.
Then again, the bus could really be a random but functionally stable roll of the die. Personally, I like the ride either way as long as there are a couple of hot passengers I can stare at as well as those that can carry on a conversation (be they separate entities or one in the same).
So to answer your question, an illogical universe will eventually lock up due to error. In order for that universe to continue, it needs a “bump” from a meta-physical source. If that universe contained other conscious beings, then they may eventually notice the existence of said meta-physical source. Hence a meta-physical entity cannot host an illogical universe that contains other conscious beings without eventually giving away its existence. Being that this known universe is a logical construct, two conditions can exist. The first is that there is a meta-physical entity (or entities) but their intervention is never required and hence it or they remain hidden. The second is that there is no meta-physical entity as the universe is a random outcome of countless rolls of a die.
If a meta-physical entity wished to remain hidden to resident consciousness, it would unlikely choose an illogically constructed universe, as such a universe will require intervention to continue when it fails.
Resistance is futile… The Collective will ohm you.
b0rg
Joined:
12/14/2007
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Difference between theory and facts
Posted: 4/7/2008 5:07:18 PM
Think of theory like an artist rendering of a suspect. If it is just a few pixels, it may be accurate, but it’s far too vague to accurately describe the person. The fact that the person may have worn a blue shirt is described by a single pixel of blue, but it really tells us very little. The couple of dots are as much a “theory” as pure hypothesis. You need more definition.
If it’s a rendering approaching the quality of a hi-def photograph, it’s very accurate, but has to be understood that it describes the person in a single configuration and instance. It will be useful to identify the person, but it will likely tell you nothing about what he would look like after running a mile in the rain. This is often the fallacy when people criticize more complex theories. Because the theory’s model doesn’t account for another configuration based on variables outside the scope of the model, they deem the theory (in this case the photograph) to be inaccurate, and therefore based on a wrong foundation.
I found this on page 42 of “the guide” and a room full of Chimpanzee’s typed it out for me. No primates were harmed with the exception of Bobo (who was using the workstation with a faulty chair).
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