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 wisguyingb
Joined: 1/5/2008
Msg: 26
Gold-The only safe investment?Page 2 of 4    (1, 2, 3, 4)
^^^ ^^^

Yes that I do know. A few years ago you could buy 1000 rounds of 7.62x39 Russian Hollow points for $80 dollars. Now its like $200 dollars for 1000 rounds.

Obama did one heck of a job stimulating the gun and ammunition sector of our economy. He was awarded the Nobel Peace prize and now I'd like to nominate him for gun and ammo salesman of the year.:laugh
 Strings6
Joined: 7/14/2007
Msg: 27
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History
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 11/6/2009 4:23:13 PM
What good will Gold do you in a bankrupt nation with a collapsed infrastructure and social anarchy...just another disaster scam to make people think they will be alright when the excrement contacts the rotary oscillator... a joke....something for "it can't happen here" Americans to feel good about.
 wisguyingb
Joined: 1/5/2008
Msg: 28
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/2/2009 2:35:33 PM
Post #12


But would you want to put your money into gold now that its already over $1000 an ounce and how much of your savings would you be willing to invest?


Well gold just hit something like $1217.00 an ounce today. Like I have said in the past $1000.00 a ounce is going to look like a bargain a few years from now.

All those cash for gold TV ad's are nothing but a shame. They tell you that gold prices are at record highs and now is the time to sell. Well if they think that the price is going to go down then why are they so willing to buy your gold at such high prices? Anyone who sold gold at $800 to $1000 dollars a ounce is probably kicking themselves right now.
 m14shooter
Joined: 10/2/2009
Msg: 29
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History
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/2/2009 9:45:02 PM
Gold is worth what it s costs to mine it and refine it plus a profit margin. Same for diamonds, there are places where they litter the ground. These items are valuable because we make them valuable. I want to see someone go to walmart and buy groceries with gold. Best investment I ever made was in machine guns. I bought a Colt M-16 for $1,200 in 1990 and sold it for $22,000 in 2006. Bought a belt fed for $2500 and sold it for over 30K. If I would have taken my money and put it in gold when it was $400 a ounce or less when I bought the machine guns and it was now worth $1200 a ounce which was the better investment? Same for the stock market, I made the wise investment.
 god_of_rock
Joined: 1/17/2009
Msg: 30
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/3/2009 3:16:36 PM

Well gold just hit something like $1217.00 an ounce today. Like I have said in the past $1000.00 a ounce is going to look like a bargain a few years from now.


watch out! that's the type of thing someone says in EVERY BUBBLE!!


likely said the same thing the last time gold peaked in 1979-80 t close to $1000/oz., then dropped to $300 or so for 25+ years

read an "Analyst" say that about Nortel common stock in 2001 - "we will a ll look back & think it was dirt cheap at $100 /share"

now it's basically zero.

said about real estate every time there's a bubble - "you'll look back and think $500,000 for this 1000 sq-ft. shack was a BARGAIN in a few years"..oops sorry it dropped to below your mortgage amount and they foreclosed..

and on & on the cycle goes..NO-ONE can regularly predict price patterns 10 years ago oil was predicted by many 'experts' to go below $!0 /bbl. - right before it started on climb to almost $140/bbl. at that point predictions were fo r $200-$250/bbl. in a year or 2

now back down to $50-60 range

anyone who could predict commodity price swings could be the richest person in the world, and not telling you about it !
 RSwindol
Joined: 8/25/2005
Msg: 31
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History
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/4/2009 3:17:36 AM
The safest investment of all is ones health.
 wisguyingb
Joined: 1/5/2008
Msg: 32
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/4/2009 5:09:53 AM

watch out! that's the type of thing someone says in EVERY BUBBLE!!


I'm a coin collector and bought most of my gold at $300-500 dollars a ounce. I'm not too worried about gold suddenly taking a dive below $500 dollars a ounce. If anything is going to take a nose dive it's gonna be the US Dollar. When that happens gold, silver, platinum and other metals will rise in value. Gold is more or less a store of wealth. Yes there could be a gold bubble but the more the US Dollar becomes devalued the more gold rises. Does anyone in here actually think the US Government is going to become fiscally responsible and get this nation on track? Not me. I predict that many nations are going to dump their holdings of US Dollars in the near future. Heck India's central bank just bought 200 metric tons of gold from the IMF and became the 11th largest holder of gold in the world. This nation is going to have a currency crisis in the near future. Just wait.
 coveredinpaint
Joined: 7/13/2009
Msg: 33
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/4/2009 5:23:48 AM
I would normally think gold futures would be the way to go, but if the collapse of the dollar is what causes gold to rise, once you cash out you'll just be left with a bunch of worthless paper money. That's why you need to be in gold itself, not derivatives.
 yna6
Joined: 1/21/2007
Msg: 34
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/4/2009 8:47:45 AM
Just out of curiosity...has anyone here actually sold their "old, broken or mismatched" gold to any of the companies? These companies are NOT paying out the real value of gold...what the market indicates the price is. They may be paying out only hal;f...perhaps even two thirds, though I doubt that. Also, on the ads on TV you see someone hauling out a handful of stones form the bottom of a recovery tank....do they pay the value of the stones? I never heard them claim that! So you send , say, an old wedding band set in. You get back a little over half the gold value, nothing for any stones that may be in it, and get to pay a bit off that credit card bill that had you so worked up that you sold your gold for in the first place!

Sounds like a scam to get every ounce of gold out of the peoples hands and into some corporations vaults.


You could set up the same kind of deal yourself! Offer to buy up gold in your own neighbourhood. If you have that kind of cash!

Now...as far as other investments are concerned...has anyone thought about any other places to place money? How about in salt? Sounds odd....but salt is a commodity like anything else and has a lot of uses. It seems to have a steady return on it. Ok...nothing spectacular...but always there.
 milt_n_bradley
Joined: 10/14/2009
Msg: 35
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/4/2009 11:28:15 AM
Gold is only "safe" for the people who got in low...and sold high.
Did everybody forget the early 80's?

Yes...yes,it seems they have...
 acuddler
Joined: 10/30/2009
Msg: 36
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/6/2009 5:01:52 PM
Gold is good-during inflation-but gems are better. Gold is around $1,000.00 per ounce. There are 7,000 carats in one ounce. A flawless ONE carat blue-white diamond sells for about $3,000.00 . Multiply that by 7,000 to see what one ounce of flawless diamond is worth...$21,000,000.00! A flawless Emerald costs FOUR times as much as a comparable diamond...so an ounce of flawless Emerald is worth...$84,000,000.00!!!!!

Gold is for whimps.
 leanco
Joined: 12/7/2006
Msg: 37
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History
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/7/2009 1:20:29 AM
Never thought I would discuss gold on a dating site forum, but here I am.


India’s central bank just bought 200 metric tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund which has further increased Gold's overall value. Currently it's around $1100.00 an ounce. Some people are saying it very well could go to $5000.00 an ounce. I'm thinking maybe more like $3000.00 an ounce. I highly doubt we will see gold under $900.00 US Dollars per ounce ever again. What do the rest of you think?

$5K an ounce?!?!? Did they say in what time frame? It's useless speculation without knowing how long it will take to get there. Personally, I'd be impressed if gold can get to $1500 an ounce in a year's time.

I think there is a HIGHER probability for gold to drop to $900 an ounce than it rising to $3K and above. To be honest, I much rather see gold at $900 an ounce than at $3K. Whenever the price of gold goes up, it's usually because something untoward has happened. The faster the ascent, the worse the event. Betting on high gold prices is equal to betting on disasters to happen. It's a bet that I wouldn't want to win. That said, if I have money to invest, I will still want to put a little bit in gold as insurance.


NO-ONE can regularly predict price patterns 10 years ago oil was predicted by many 'experts' to go below $!0 /bbl. - right before it started on climb to almost $140/bbl. at that point predictions were fo r $200-$250/bbl. in a year or 2
now back down to $50-60 range

I agree. Commodity prices are notoriously volatile, and to use linear thinking to extrapolate future prices has been proven repeatedly to be more wrong than right. At best, one can only find "trends". Clearly the price of gold is trending up at the present time, but who's to say that this trend won't change tomorrow? All it takes is some event to happen, and suddenly the shinny metal will lose its appeal and the price will come crashing down. This is exactly what happen in March 2008, when gold peaked over $1K an ounce for the first time ever. Within 6 months, it felt right back to below $700. How many "experts" accurately predicted that?
 sammylg
Joined: 12/20/2006
Msg: 38
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/7/2009 6:08:56 AM
The value of Gold often is opposite the value of the world monetary system (okay, mostly the US Dollar and the Euro).

If you feel currencies are going to tank, then buying gold is a good thing. If the value of the dollar rebounds, you will be SOL on your Gold investment.

However, on a media note. I find it funny that most investors are saying to avoid gold, as is my media guru Dave Ramsay, but it is radio/talk conservatives such as Glenn Beck, Shawn Hannity and Michael Savage touting it.

I wonder if it's another capitalization on the fear of Obama.
 sammylg
Joined: 12/20/2006
Msg: 39
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/8/2009 7:03:12 PM
From Dave's website:

Gold Is Good?
Is investing in gold a good idea?

QUESTION: A listener says a lot of people are asking about gold investments. Is this a good idea?

ANSWER: It’s a bad idea to invest in gold. Everyone’s talking about it right now because gold is really high.

In the book Stocks for the Long Run, Jeremy Siegel has a graph that shows what would have happened to a single dollar invested in gold, bonds and stocks since 1801.

One dollar invested in bonds in 1801 would yield $13,975 today.
One dollar invested in stocks in 1801 would be worth $8.8 million today.
One dollar invested in gold in 1801 would be worth $14 today.

I am not as critical as Dave Ramsay, but I would not buy gold now. People speculate that it is going as high as $2,000~5000 an ounce. I would say that's not going to happen.

But you definitely hit the Conservative talk show controversy on the head Passionate Gent...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/20091208/ts_ynews/ynews_ts1022_6
 god_of_rock
Joined: 1/17/2009
Msg: 40
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/9/2009 3:51:36 PM
In the book Stocks for the Long Run, Jeremy Siegel has a graph that shows what would have happened to a single dollar invested in gold, bonds and stocks since 1801.

One dollar invested in bonds in 1801 would yield $13,975 today.
One dollar invested in stocks in 1801 would be worth $8.8 million today.
One dollar invested in gold in 1801 would be worth $14 today.


cool info, but this is all theoretical based on stock and bond AVERAGES.

there was no way to invest $1 in a stock 'average' in 1801; really there still isn't although you can get 'close' with ETF's & index mutual funds.

in the real world you might buy a stock that went to zero value (same with a bond).

I wonder how many stocks (or bonds) that were around in 1801 are still around today? most stock averages much be heavily weighted to companies that didn't even exist then (or not even before 30 or years ago) e.g Microsoft, Intel, Google, Yahoo, etc., etc.

plus, most of us do not have a 208-year investing time horizon. .so this info is useless to most of us. most of us, it might be 30-40 years maximum (to funds retirement, etc.)

I'm not really interested in trying to make my great-great-great-great-grandchildren wealthy (besides, would likely never happen as the first next generation to get its mitts on the money would spend it all long before 208 years pass by.

besides which, as the disclaimers all say, past performance is no guarantee of the future

this is a theoretical number assuming no taxes, commissions, etc. and like I said, most importantly that you could even buy "an average" any average changes over time, some stocks are dropped, and others added. the OLDEST index DJIA has changed quite a few times in its history (and doesn't even date back to 1801, was started in 1896.

only ONE Stock that was in that original index is still in it today, GE (General Electric).

the other problem with looking at long time horizons and saying (in the long run) is human nature

how many of us would REALLY go through a 20-year period like the Great Depression seeing our investments "under water" (huge losses), over 50% and "hold on for the long run? probably want to commit suicide, for sure your wife would be screaming at you about how stupid you are.. there have been other long time preiods (several years long) when stocks have been under water

check tech stock indices from 1995- present or Japanese (Nikkei) from 1989-present

do you know how long 20 years would seem like when living through it with losses (not like the little blip it looks like on a 100-year chart)
 god_of_rock
Joined: 1/17/2009
Msg: 41
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/9/2009 4:04:05 PM
^^

if there is a huge 'collapse', gold won't help much..you'd need people to trade with and gangs would likely just form and kill you, take what they want

for food, etc. you MIGHT have a chance if you live in a really remote area..in a city, highly doubtful.

if the collapse that some people talk about happens, we're all screwed! you can't eat gold or grow things with it or heat your home with it or shoot marauding gangs with it
 leanco
Joined: 12/7/2006
Msg: 42
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History
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/10/2009 12:21:15 AM

I think silver is the better play but it's a great deal more volatile. I think people should have at least some of their portfolio in precious metals or commodities.

I agree that everyone should have a small exposure to precious metals in their investment portfolio, but I would argue the assertion that silver is the "better" play. Silver is as much an industrial metal and thus its value is somewhat tied to economic activities. Last year during the meltdown, silver suffered a larger percentage drop than gold did, and to date it has not risen past its all time high like gold has. IOW, gold has outperformed silver both on the way down and on the way up. Another problem with silver is that it is not as liquid as gold is, which makes it much more susceptible to manipulation and price-fixing.



if the collapse that some people talk about happens, we're all screwed! you can't eat gold or grow things with it or heat your home with it or shoot marauding gangs with it

A very poignant point. The gold bugs of the world insist on owning physical gold. They fear that the fiat currencies would soon collapse and holding gold is the only way to survive. I understand that fear, but if civilization does come to that, we are all screwed anyway no matter how much gold coins or bullions one has in his private vault. When paper money is worthless and a commercial contract does not bind, it's lawlessness and anarchy. That's a world I'd doubt many of us would want to live in.
 sammylg
Joined: 12/20/2006
Msg: 43
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/10/2009 7:42:08 AM
"cool info, but this is all theoretical based on stock and bond AVERAGES."

The point of the statement was not a 208 year investment strategy, it is that over the years, Gold has not been a good investment.

While we all point to how much gold has climbed, but over 2 centuries, it has gone up and down and at the end of the day, unless you closely managing your portfolio and are willing to sell and buy, it has not done well at all, compared to the stock or bond market.

And again, some people are shouting that gold is going past $2000 an ounce. What bet would you put against that? I wouldn't.
 coveredinpaint
Joined: 7/13/2009
Msg: 44
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/10/2009 8:00:07 AM
Like any other investment, it's all about your investment horizon. What is your exit strategy for capitalizing on your gold holdings? Would you cash out of gold and go back into cash? Would you continue to hold the gold, knowing paper currency may ultimately become worthless?

At this point it sounds like its a matter of whether to use gold as an actual investment, or a future form of currency.
 JWG86
Joined: 7/5/2008
Msg: 45
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/10/2009 9:47:33 AM
The only resource that they are not discovering any more of and that we always need more of is land. It is the ultimate investment.
 acuddler
Joined: 10/30/2009
Msg: 46
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/14/2009 11:23:47 AM
The idea that land is good comes from post WW2 when land values did nothing but go up for so long. Then they went down, finally. If you invest in land, and it is crap-a bad area, zoned wrong for what you want to do with it, etc-you may die of old age before you can profit from it. If it is great-good area, right zoning, etc-there is the chance that some crook on a city, or state, or federal, board/council/etc will steal it from you for a song via 'eminent domain'...where the government takes your land for it's use, and pays you little, or nothing for it.

Having a little land of mediocre value/attractiveness is a good idea for part of your portfolio, but it should never be the whole enchilada of your investment strategy. Whether Gold, Land, or, anything else, follow the rule...never buy when everyone else is buying, or saying you should buy. Buy when others are selling, and desperate. Sell when others are buying, and greedy/fearful. Profit most by bucking the trends.

Land is no good as a profit maker if you can't sell it because everyone else is too broke/unemployed to be able to buy it from you. Gold is great to have during a high inflation, but not so great at other times. Years ago, it went from nearly $900.00 per ounce to about $400.00 an ounce. Those who bought during the buying frenzy-at $800.00 to $900.00 an ounce-got badly burned.

Gems are always great. Someone will always buy a gem from you, no matter the economy. Gems invoke emotional appeal. Someone who has always wanted a large Marquis cut Ruby, or whatever, will find a way to afford it if they get a chance at buying one from you. If you must flee one country, and take refuge in another, gems will be accepted when currencies are not. You can more easily smuggle a million dollars in diamonds through customs without being noticed, than you can smuggle a million dollars worth of gold, artwork, real estate, or anything else. Many Jews who fled Nazi occupied Europe got safely to freedom, and lived well, because they had diamonds, rubies, etc, to trade for: fake passports, food, clothing, transportation, bribing immigration officals, etc.

Unlike Gold,Land, etc, Gems never go down in value. Buy as close to the source mines as possible-with as few middlemen as possible in on the deal-and you will never take a loss. If investment value is not so high on a gem, it's jewelry value, or gift value, or such, will be high. If one market is cool, another will be hot. Have some gems of low value-for sale/barter to everday people-and some of higher value for sale to collectors, museums, etc.
 cpfstock
Joined: 11/7/2005
Msg: 47
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/14/2009 9:11:02 PM
A small portion of one's assets in gold is a wise & prudent hedge against a currency devaluation. Other than that I would recommend that you do not take any of the advice I see posted in this thread.
 milt_n_bradley
Joined: 10/14/2009
Msg: 48
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/15/2009 8:10:33 AM
^^^^^^
That,of course,would include your own,I would hope?
 RUMISSINGMEYET
Joined: 7/31/2006
Msg: 49
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 12/20/2009 1:36:11 PM
The bankruptcy of the United States is now certain

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

From Porter Stansberry in the S&A Digest:

It's one of those numbers that's so unbelievable you have to actually think about it for a while... Within the next 12 months, the U.S. Treasury will have to refinance $2 trillion in short-term debt. And that's not counting any additional deficit spending, which is estimated to be around $1.5 trillion. Put the two numbers together. Then ask yourself, how in the world can the Treasury borrow $3.5 trillion in only one year? That's an amount equal to nearly 30% of our entire GDP. And we're the world's biggest economy. Where will the money come from?

How did we end up with so much short-term debt? Like most entities that have far too much debt - whether subprime borrowers, GM, Fannie, or GE - the U.S. Treasury has tried to minimize its interest burden by borrowing for short durations and then "rolling over" the loans when they come due. As they say on Wall Street, "a rolling debt collects no moss." What they mean is, as long as you can extend the debt, you have no problem. Unfortunately, that leads folks to take on ever greater amounts of debt… at ever shorter durations… at ever lower interest rates. Sooner or later, the creditors wake up and ask themselves: What are the chances I will ever actually be repaid? And that's when the trouble starts. Interest rates go up dramatically. Funding costs soar. The party is over. Bankruptcy is next.


When governments go bankrupt it's called "a default." Currency speculators figured out how to accurately predict when a country would default. Two well-known economists - Alan Greenspan and Pablo Guidotti - published the secret formula in a 1999 academic paper. That's why the formula is called the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. The rule states: To avoid a default, countries should maintain hard currency reserves equal to at least 100% of their short-term foreign debt maturities. The world's largest money management firm, PIMCO, explains the rule this way: "The minimum benchmark of reserves equal to at least 100% of short-term external debt is known as the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. Greenspan-Guidotti is perhaps the single concept of reserve adequacy that has the most adherents and empirical support."

The principle behind the rule is simple. If you can't pay off all of your foreign debts in the next 12 months, you're a terrible credit risk. Speculators are going to target your bonds and your currency, making it impossible to refinance your debts. A default is assured.

So how does America rank on the Greenspan-Guidotti scale? It's a guaranteed default. The U.S. holds gold, oil, and foreign currency in reserve. The U.S. has 8,133.5 metric tonnes of gold (it is the world's largest holder). That's 16,267,000 pounds. At current dollar values, it's worth around $300 billion. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve shows a current total position of 725 million barrels. At current dollar prices, that's roughly $58 billion worth of oil. And according to the IMF, the U.S. has $136 billion in foreign currency reserves. So altogether... that's around $500 billion of reserves. Our short-term foreign debts are far bigger.

According to the U.S. Treasury, $2 trillion worth of debt will mature in the next 12 months. So looking only at short-term debt, we know the Treasury will have to finance at least $2 trillion worth of maturing debt in the next 12 months. That might not cause a crisis if we were still funding our national debt internally. But since 1985, we've been a net debtor to the world. Today, foreigners own 44% of all our debts, which means we owe foreign creditors at least $880 billion in the next 12 months - an amount far larger than our reserves.

Keep in mind, this only covers our existing debts. The Office of Management and Budget is predicting a $1.5 trillion budget deficit over the next year. That puts our total funding requirements on the order of $3.5 trillion over the next 12 months.

So… where will the money come from? Total domestic savings in the U.S. are only around $600 billion annually. Even if we all put every penny of our savings into U.S. Treasury debt, we're still going to come up nearly $3 trillion short. That's an annual funding requirement equal to roughly 40% of GDP. Where is the money going to come from? From our foreign creditors? Not according to Greenspan-Guidotti. And not according to the Indian or the Russian central bank, which have stopped buying Treasury bills and begun to buy enormous amounts of gold. The Indians bought 200 metric tonnes this month. Sources in Russia say the central bank there will double its gold reserves.

So where will the money come from? The printing press. The Federal Reserve has already monetized nearly $2 trillion worth of Treasury debt and mortgage debt. This weakens the value of the dollar and devalues our existing Treasury bonds. Sooner or later, our creditors will face a stark choice: Hold our bonds and continue to see the value diminish slowly, or try to escape to gold and see the value of their U.S. bonds plummet.

One thing they're not going to do is buy more of our debt. Which central banks will abandon the dollar next? Brazil, Korea, and Chile. These are the three largest central banks that own the least amount of gold. None own even 1% of their total reserves in gold.

I examined these issues in much greater detail in the most recent issue of my newsletter, Porter Stansberry's Investment Advisory, which we published last Friday. Coincidentally, the New York Times repeated our warnings - nearly word for word - in its paper today. (They didn't mention Greenspan-Guidotti, however... It's a real secret of international speculators.)
 wisguyingb
Joined: 1/5/2008
Msg: 50
Gold-The only safe investment?
Posted: 9/16/2010 7:44:30 AM
Guess us crazy gold people are looking pretty smart these days!
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