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 TheManOfTheHouse
Joined: 5/10/2008
Msg: 26
CA Real Estate (#2)Page 2 of 8    (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
Right now in LA houses are running about 6.5 times GDP they were 12.5 a couple of years ago. The question is how much lower. It hit 5 times GDP in 1997 . I think you could see that and maybe a little bit more. I would think at 5 times GDP a buying frenzy would kick in. For me the best scenario is the prices continue to drop a little more then for some reason the FED is forced to raise interest rates up significantly. This could push prices lower maybe even 3 times GDP. Wow a fantastic time for me to buy.
 TheManOfTheHouse
Joined: 5/10/2008
Msg: 27
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 9/26/2009 9:26:56 AM
Something interesting the previous housing downturn had an up tic at nearly the same point 6.5 GDP. What does that all mean I think more down side, if you house was worth 550 at the peak it will likely bottom at 220 at 5 times GDP at 2009 dollars. I think I was dreaming for a 3 times GDP price but 4 times is not beyond the realm of possibility. That would put your 550 home gem down to 176 that's my house now ha ha. That could happen if we get a one two punch with higher interest rates. Because I have cash I will just wait. Just remember real estate never goes down. O and the stock market is too dangerous to invest in, just buy CD's. I am up only 70% so far this year.
 Miss W
Joined: 12/4/2006
Msg: 28
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 9/26/2009 11:11:19 AM

Quoting a Beijing Atty: ""It's a good time to buy property in the U.S.," he said. "I have confidence in U.S. real estate market. I think I will get a return."

I work at a public university with graduate students and visiting scholars and meet people from all over the world. This fall, it seems that the majority of the students are from China. There is nothing wrong with that, but it seems that the pool of qualified American students is dwindling.

I am not xenophobic, but if we don't get our shyt together as a country (both economically and educationally), the Chinese will own most of our real estate and we will be at their mercy for employment.
 GolfCoast
Joined: 3/17/2008
Msg: 29
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 9/26/2009 3:52:45 PM
Our problems have to do with people. Dumb people make dumb decisions.

Our problems were the banks that lent money to people who should not have qualified for that money.

By that logic all knives should be butter knives. Banks were told to lend money to all comers, people have a responsibility to spend wisely, at least Republicans have that burden. You childish Dems blame someone or something else for all your problems.
 TheManOfTheHouse
Joined: 5/10/2008
Msg: 30
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 9/28/2009 6:02:01 AM
S&P Case-Shiller HPI on this Tuesday at 9:00 AM ET, that is the home price index. That is how you could have known the home price market was crashing before most other people.
The housing price crash is already over 80% done, now comes the aftermath and opportunities.
http://fidweek.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=438836&cust=mam&year=2009#top
 GolfCoast
Joined: 3/17/2008
Msg: 31
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 9/28/2009 6:26:56 AM
Nerd I have no inclination of disabusing you of your ignorance of 33 years of CRA practices. CRA, in fact you DEAR LEADER, sued financial institutions for not loaning to deadbeat ACORM/Dem/lowlifes. I'll bet you'r the kind of guy who thinks McDonalds is responsible for fat people also. Banks and mcD's are responsible, not the users. A society as messed up as ours had to have reached a critical mass of people incapable as you.

We should just move all you Dems into some assisted living facility, hire some social workers to make sure you don't screw up and be done with it.
 varinia
Joined: 1/1/2009
Msg: 32
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 9/28/2009 7:59:29 AM

We should just move all you Dems into some assisted living facility, hire some social workers to make sure you don't screw up and be done with it.


If you make this a political discussion and keep flaming, I bet this thread is going to get deleted again. Why not discuss Real Estate now and future, instead of getting hung up on who's at fault in your eyes. Living in the past is never a good thing.
 GolfCoast
Joined: 3/17/2008
Msg: 33
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 9/28/2009 8:33:21 AM
My dear Varinia. The past and the future is as one as the river flows from the great mother mountain. Changing course requires a determination of the direction from which one came, challenging the assumptions that one wants to change.

Blogs of necessity are of an Aristotlian two-value orientation. Although in negotiation one needs to find and appreciate 'grey areas', in establishing clarity to determine if one is already in agreement requires force, clarity and passion. This is not after all an Obama speech directed at the utterly clueless but an opportunity to share the blinding light of truth and justice and the American way.
Societies make decisions regarding allocation of resources based upon both conscious and unconscious decisions. So for example since the 1964 Civil rights act we have incurred transfer payments to, let me gentle here "unfortunates". Coincidentally and curiously this is almost exactly the amount of our current national debt!!!! Oh my. Could it possibly be said then that we have gutted our productive capacity to compete on a global stage by subsidizing people and behavior, of which we have more of than when we started? Is it not desirable to have a clear view that misallocation decisions happened as a result of value judgments made by our government that created situation where banks lent to the incompetent, then blamed the banks for misdirecting scare resources without acknowledging they created not just incentives but laws?

My sense of fairness is twice offended. Nor will I sit idly by while we have at once pointed the nose of the plane at the ground, then added power.
 GolfCoast
Joined: 3/17/2008
Msg: 34
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 10/1/2009 10:00:06 AM
Bernanke's testimony this morning to The House Financial Services Committee was telling and I think supports my prior points (no surprise there lol).

In summary the government FHA is still providing 3.5% DP low interest loans to "marginally qualified people". Further there is an estimated $1T in this type of exposure, this is current and ongoing. Further he acknowledged these loans were inches from non-performing/toxic.

Two points I'll continue to make.

1. This is not a failure of capitalism, or banks. It's a conscious policy of the government to create some social and economic planning. BANKS WOULD NEVER LOAN TO THESE PEOPLE WITHOUT GOVERNMENT. Let me repeat this for the slow team BANKS WOULD NEVER LOAN TO THESE PEOPLE WITHOUT GOVERNMENT.
2. Bernanke, therefore with Obama's blessing is NOT asking for any change in oversite of any significance. He calls it smarter, not more regulation. Per point 1, the economic collapse was government enabled. Don't believe me? Watch Chris Dodd, Maxine Waters and Barney Frank's questioning & testimony today and over time. This is good money after bad redistribution to deadbeats.

Other interesting and concerning points Bernanke made are:

Unemployment would be above 9% through 2010 (at 3% growth in GDP currently estimated). He had no better ideas on how to fix employment. He was concerned people out of labor force would "lose contact" with the labor force.

A lot of chat about 'too big to fail" is now about "how to recognize when they are going to fail and how to enable an acceptable crash landing. Your writer has offered too big to fail can only happen if the government has picked you as an extension of your social planning. I would argue they should be called "too big to succeed". Buying a piece of government is not the core competency of businessman but political hacks. You have nothing but political hacks serving as czars, in Obama's entire administration. Not a single business person, all Valerie Jarrett's trying to buy the olympics to bail out here slumlord holdings.

Of course you had the usual suspects telling how "gumberment should have a program to bofff helps da little menz by stoppin' the check cashing houses and pawn shops from clippin' der constituablaries (sic sic sic).

Beautiful, just beautiful.
 TheManOfTheHouse
Joined: 5/10/2008
Msg: 35
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 10/3/2009 5:12:32 PM
I am thinking 18% max downside to go.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/ShillerSPTeleconferenceAug2009.pdf

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/Case-Shiller_August2009Release.pdf
 GolfCoast
Joined: 3/17/2008
Msg: 36
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 10/3/2009 6:06:34 PM
A lot of moving parts. If inflation were to accelerate to double digits real estate would rise, albeit in cheap dollars. That would be my guess for the next 4 years as the government of necessity must inflate currency to meet current liabilities, avoid a second wave of foreclosures by making the RE appear a bargain.
 GolfCoast
Joined: 3/17/2008
Msg: 37
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 10/13/2009 7:07:17 PM
Former I think Argentina is the perfect metaphor. After WW2 they were the world's second richest country. They elected Juan and Eva peron, Obama characters for sure, and they plunged argentina into a bananna republic from which they have never recovered.
 primetron
Joined: 6/3/2008
Msg: 38
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 10/15/2009 2:24:04 AM
Housing prices won't come back to bush era levels for 5 to 10 years unless underwriting standards drop then we are going to have the same problem all over again.
 primetron
Joined: 6/3/2008
Msg: 39
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 10/15/2009 2:26:47 AM
who's president is not as important as how much the bank lobby has spent in washington.
 MermaidSari
Joined: 2/4/2007
Msg: 40
view profile
History
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 10/20/2009 5:22:41 PM
Going back through the threads...

Nerdstatus -- You can get property managers (many are real estate agents, but check over credentials) for a small percentage of the rent collected. All travel will be tax deductible if owning a rental in another state.

Old Softy -- You asked about fixed income. It is indeed tricky in this market -- we are watching stocks go back up and bonds at a high ([this is not the norm, since we know that when stock go up that bonds are suppose to go down] but watch for interest rates to go up and we can only go 'up' from this all time low).

Interest rates effect bonds and lower their worth as far as selling when committing yourself to a long term. You want to sell at a premium. Corporate bonds are a different type of animal...

Dudeness spoke words of wisdom as far as corporate bonds...but then again you have to be careful because you are dealing with what I call 'soft' stocks and despite recent increases in the Dow -- you have to watch 'what stocks' are carrying those increases and invest wisely (invest in corporations that are solid like utilities...everyone needs energy and this will likely not go out of style like the latest fads). You get a less return...but also less risk.

Banks brokers can be evil -- so watch for trusting anyone but yourself with your own hard earned funds.

Finally -- I know what is stated here...but my thoughts would be that real estate and the stock market does hold some good investments in this rough market.

You have to do research though and you have to 'hold' through the turbulance. There are no good short terms and banks are paying pitally as far as fixed income returns. They will never keep up with the inflation we are in store for.

Golf -- Where you suggesting that doing both (renting and owning is unwise)? We see examples from this thread (V) where it is paying off. If a person is not greedy and seeks a modest return on investment and plans on holding for 10 years...you can do well in other states. Consider Michigan that is wiped out. You will probably not see lows like this again (at least in 10 years). *wink*

All things considered in this market I think you have to consider how long you want to hold along side there is no 'safe' short term pay outs.

Your investments in precious metals were timely. Have we (though) passed that time? Send me what you have Golf. I'm a student and a good student. Much of what I've learned (if not through error on my own part) has been through those more wise than mysef.

Thanks all for your interesting contributions to this thread. :-)
 GolfCoast
Joined: 3/17/2008
Msg: 41
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 10/20/2009 5:39:58 PM
Mermaid I am not anti-renting or owning, rather I may have been commenting upon a specific posters comments. Any investment decision is unique unto itself, whereas when we broad-brush the larger circumstances we are implying we are at least 51% correct. On the other hand, and being negative there were approx. 340,000 new foreclosure filings in September perhaps refecting the beginning of the 2nd wave of foreclosures due to bad loans and high unemployment. The smart guys were particularly concerned that a large % of new foreclosures were not loans to Democrats but instead responsible people who otherwise exercise responsible borrowing.

Perhaps never has the truism "real estate is all local' been as true.

But the larger truth is RE is a sell
 MermaidSari
Joined: 2/4/2007
Msg: 42
view profile
History
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 10/20/2009 7:17:09 PM
Golf --

Awwww...you answered my question about what is coming in September from much earlier in this thread (or was it the other [now closed thread]).

You know a way to a woman's heart (or is it her brain...I have difficulty distinquishing the difference at times...awwww the logic versus the emotion we entertain). :-p



(btw -- the sell depends upon the hold...long or short and if a flip is possible on the price the bank is willing to come down to in today's market. Shh-h-h-h (just between you and myself)...the banks have been holding a rather large inventory...via gov. intervention to 'hold' off and 'try' to allow refinancing which has only attributed to the 'bulk' storage of goods for sale. *wink* It's interesting that some might 'assume' no swings in a difficult market when the very attribute of a market does not resemble stability--but movement. That said...the selling point is individual and absolutely determined by the market **if** one obtains the choice to hold or sell versus if they are being foreclosed upon).
 GolfCoast
Joined: 3/17/2008
Msg: 43
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 10/20/2009 7:32:29 PM
My dear Mermaid, if big brains were a foolproof aphrodisiac I'd be the Tiger Woods of love

Regarding the term question....hold long, and sell short (my naughty double entendre du jour).
 fzrhusker
Joined: 10/8/2005
Msg: 44
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 10/21/2009 6:25:41 AM
Here we go again more Social Engineering. Ya it was the free markets fault. We just had the subprime mortgage crash and they want to do it again?????????????????????????

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are going to take care of it, wow these names sound like a Prostitute and her pimp, and they will screw us all again.

New Obama housing initiative to improve access to affordable housing
October 19, 2009 05:30PM
President Obama

The Obama administration has introduced a new initiative that will support state and local housing finance agencies in efforts to keep mortgage rates low and increase access to affordable housing for low- and middle-income borrowers, the administration announced today. The plan includes both a new issue bond program that will encourage new lending, and a temporary credit and liquidity program, under which Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will offer liquidity for outstanding bonds. The plan will be financed through fees the individual agencies will pay in order to access incentives, and will be available on a temporary basis, only. The intent is to jumpstart HFA activity with respect to affordable housing in the wake of the housing market's troubles, while offsetting any potential risks to the taxpayer and the Treasury Department through these fees. TRD
 MermaidSari
Joined: 2/4/2007
Msg: 45
view profile
History
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 10/23/2009 8:14:01 PM
Rich -- we live in a country [perhaps world] where 'victim mentality' is often encouraged versus 'true' 'empowerment.' It appears that sometimes sympathy is getting mixed up with other charateristics. **sigh

I'd like to say 'hope' doesn't get a person far if they are not armed with good work ethics and intelligence unfortunately. I know I have a lot of audacity is stating this though. *wink*


Wow, some very smart people in here. Much smarter than the norm here on POF.


I too have been impressed and thank everyone for their contributions to this thread and the other [that got a little side tracked in political discussions was held in lock down *wink* ]. :-)

The American dream -- so what do you think? To some I'm sure this discussion is quite boring (good to catch up on rest though).
 MermaidSari
Joined: 2/4/2007
Msg: 46
view profile
History
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 11/8/2009 9:50:46 AM
What about the extension on the new home buyers tax credit (8k)? Thoughts?

Investors now 'might' (I'd encourage investors to read the fine print though) qualify for a 6,500 credit.

Any thoughts on this as well as far as supply and demand economics?

Thanks to all providing interesting links to follow on this topic.
 GolfCoast
Joined: 3/17/2008
Msg: 47
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 11/8/2009 4:52:55 PM
Democrats are always attempting to overthrow the law of supply and demand. Housing inflated and falling, "inject some cheap money". result? prolonged housing slump with the market frozen while people assess a new player...the government.
 sd_matt
Joined: 7/9/2006
Msg: 48
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 11/10/2009 3:41:01 PM
I think Dudness speaks wisely in his earlier post.

He echoes the ones I call the Paul Reveres. Peter Schiff, Nouriel Roubini, Dean Baker, Robert Schiller....there are more. The blogs Piggington.com and Doctorhousingbubble talk about this in depth. And they too were calling this bubble for what it was.

I am going to wait until '10 at least to see if a new round of crony programs will turn this upcoming Alt-A tsunami into a long downward decent.

On a related note for fun we can place bets on whether or not the media will be paid to stay silent about the supposed "shadow inventory" or will they go for the story. Personally I think it is a fun wild card to think about. Imagine the general public getting wind of this. Would they wait out the banks ( and cause them to fall) or will government knock them off the fence with with a $30k tax credit?
 sd_matt
Joined: 7/9/2006
Msg: 49
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 11/10/2009 4:20:43 PM
Truebloo

I read DHB also. He makes a strong case for an outright crash. Check out Piggington.com. The Piggs seem to go back and fourth between a big crash in 10 and a slow, government-induced, decline.

Golfcoast

From what the Paul Reveres are/were saying the blood in on the hands of both parties for this financial mess. And if it were just the Dems doing the raping then the Reps (except for a small handfull) seemed to be doing the equivalent of standing on the side and watching while playing with themselves.

Another fun side note. Maybe we can make similar bet on how many more bubbles can be blown up before the sheeple get it. Infinity is not allowed as an answer.

And here's something more to cheer you all up!! Ron Paul's HR1207 was gutted. The linky; http://www.foxnews.com/search-results/m/27238682/hr-1207-gutted.htm

Oh well.

Who is John Galt?
 MermaidSari
Joined: 2/4/2007
Msg: 50
view profile
History
CA Real Estate (#2)
Posted: 11/29/2009 9:54:01 AM
Thanks all -- some more interesting thoughts and input. :-)
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