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Show ALL Forums  > Off Topic  > Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?      Home login  
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 calliopedreams
Joined: 11/21/2017
Msg: 7828
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?Page 314 of 321    (281, 282, 283, 284, 285, 286, 287, 288, 289, 290, 291, 292, 293, 294, 295, 296, 297, 298, 299, 300, 301, 302, 303, 304, 305, 306, 307, 308, 309, 310, 311, 312, 313, 314, 315, 316, 317, 318, 319, 320, 321)
Vlad -
O.K. the Vox article/study uses: "a small group of ex-felons from 2007 to 2011 under then-governor (and then-Republican) Charlie Crist. (Florida vests the governor with the exclusive power to restore the vote through an executive clemency process.) Crist restored the right to vote to about 150,000 ex-felons convicted of less serious offenses."

I didn't read the "Rules Of Executive Clemency,"
https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/morse/files/crist_2007_policy.pdf
but voting rights will be restored to all felons "except those convicted of murder or a felony sexual offense, upon completion of their sentences, including prison, parole, and probation."

I don't see the exact numbers in the article in Vox, but looking at the bar graphs, Blacks represent about 55k and "Not Black" (this apparently includes Asian, Native American, etc., and other "Not Blacks" since they state "We defined nonblack as white, Hispanic, Asian, and other due to data limitations.") would be the remainder, or 150,000 - 55k =95k. so, Blacks are about 37% of this population and Not Blacks are the remainder, or 63%


This Clemency happened during the same time-frame the other study was performed showing the Florida prison population described as follows:

Take a look at statistics collected in 2010 (well before this Amendment was proposed) where it shows the numbers of Black, Hispanic and White (non-Hispanic) prisoners per 100,000 people of that ethnic group:
White (non-Hispanic) - 626
Hispanic - 536
Black - 2,555

This is an apples and oranges scenarion, since it shows the number of people incarcerated versus their population. E.g. Out of 100,000 Blacks in Florida, 2,555=2.6% are incarcerated. Likewise, 0.6% of Whites and 0.5% of Hispanics (rounded to nearest tenth). OR Not Blacks (with fudge factor for Asians and "other" for which no figures are supplied) are incarcerated at the rate of 1.1% per 100,000.

A paper published in 2011 shows the results of Florida's 2010 Census:

According to the 2010 census, Florida’s population was 57.9 percent non-Hispanic White, 15.2 percent non-Hispanic Black, 22.5 percent Hispanic, 2.4 percent Asian, and 2.1 percent Other race/ethnicities.

https://www.flcenterfornursing.org/DesktopModules/Bring2mind/DMX/Download.aspx?Command=Core_Download&EntryId=171&PortalId=0&TabId=151

So, in 2010, Blacks represent 15.2% of Florida's population and Not Blacks are the remainder = 84.9 (I know it isn't 100%, but I am using THEIR numbers, which have some rounding, obviously).

Anyway, the pop in 2010 FL was 18.84 Million.

https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=kf7tgg1uo9ude_&met_y=population&hl=en&dl=en#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=population&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=state:12000&ifdim=country&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false

18,840,000 x 15.2%=2,863,680 Blacks, 74,456 Incarcerated at some point.


18,840,000 x 84.9%=15,995,160 Not Blacks, 175,947 Incarcerated at some point.


So based on this rough calculation, yes, I will concede that the number of "Not Black" people in Florida prisons are greater than the number of Black people. Therefore, it may be reasonable to assume that will carry over somewhat proportionally to pardoned Felons.

However, the flaw in the Vox study is only looking at results of the Voters who participated. 2016 was an extremely apathetic year. Notice the bar charts that show large numbers of pardoned Felons that did not even register to Vote. There is NO WAY to know how they might have voted. 2016 was one of the most unpredictable elections I have ever witnessed.

Anyway, we shall see what happens.
 calliopedreams
Joined: 11/21/2017
Msg: 7829
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/10/2018 12:52:08 PM
Vlad -

To clarify, while there are MORE "Not Black" vs Black Felons (per the category used in the Vox study),
there are still MORE Black Felons than WHITE Felons. So if the term "Not Black" was construed to mean WHITE, that is where the B.S. lies.

Per the 2010 Census, the pop in 2010 FL was 18.84 Million.

57.9 percent White (non-Hispanic) = 10,908,360 > incarcerated at rate of - 626/100,000 x 10,908,360 = 68,286 White Felons versus

15.2 percent Black (non-Hispanic) = 2,863,680 > incarcerated at rate of - 2,555/100,000 x 2,863,680 = 73,167 Black Felons.

There are still MORE Black Felons than WHITE Felons.

As I said earlier, this statement


the majority of felons in florida are white.............


is still pure Bullsh!t, and I don't see that statement anywhere in the Vox article. As a matter of fact, the only place that the word "White" is mentioned is in the definition ["We defined nonblack as white, Hispanic, Asian, and other due to data limitations"], not in any of the Tables:

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/11/2/18049510/felon-voting-rights-amendment-4-florida

So, this must be your own personal conclusion after reading the article:

the majority of felons in florida are white.............

I think you confused "Not Black" with White. Common mistake, I suppose. AND, while I bet that misconception could have been leveraged to sway the vote for Amendment 4, I doubt the Republicans would make that mistake.

Vox.com is liberal leaning and that article was likely designed to mitigate the fear of Black voter numbers increasing, in showing that they were outnumbered by other races.
 vlad dracul
Joined: 4/30/2009
Msg: 7830
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/10/2018 2:06:52 PM
Callop

"I don't see the exact numbers in the article in Vox, but looking at the bar graphs, Blacks represent about 55k and "Not Black" (this apparently includes Asian, Native American, etc., and other "Not Blacks" since they state "We defined nonblack as white, Hispanic, Asian, and other due to data limitations.") would be the remainder, or 150,000 - 55k =95k. so, Blacks are about 37% of this population and Not Blacks are the remainder, or 63%"


Well i am using the figures supplied by the Sentencing Project. According to THEM three quarters of convicted felons. (You are correct about where i claimed white. I was wrong) are not black.

But i would think a good few of the three quarters who are not black would be classed as white do you not think?

"According to the Sentencing Project, there were 1,487,847 ex-felons in Florida who were unable to vote during the 2016 election, of which about a quarter, or 418,224, were black."

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/11/2/18049510/felon-voting-rights-amendment-4-florida



"However, the flaw in the Vox study is only looking at results of the Voters who participated. 2016 was an extremely apathetic year. Notice the bar charts that show large numbers of pardoned Felons that did not even register to Vote. There is NO WAY to know how they might have voted. 2016 was one of the most unpredictable elections I have ever witnessed.
Anyway, we shall see what happens."

But the claim that if felons had been allowed to vote the democrats would have won florida do not have any validity.

That claim is assuming black, white, asian, hispanic, indian felons are going to vote. They may NEXT time yous have a vote. But as you say we will see what happens.............


"think you confused "Not Black" with White. Common mistake, I suppose. AND, while I bet that misconception could have been leveraged to sway the vote for Amendment 4, I doubt the Republicans would make that mistake.

Vox.com is liberal leaning and that article was likely designed to mitigate the fear of Black voter numbers increasing, in showing that they were outnumbered by other races."


But i remember the martin zimmerman killing in florida. Zimmerman was called 'white' hispanic. So the three quarters non black felons may contain many hundreds of thousands of 'white' hispanics.

Or can hispanics play the race card by claiming not to be white although the sherman lying press use the 'white' hispanic term quite a lot?
 mungo_joe
Joined: 3/13/2018
Msg: 7831
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/10/2018 8:31:11 PM

But i remember the martin zimmerman killing in florida. Zimmerman was called 'white' hispanic. So the three quarters non black felons may contain many hundreds of thousands of 'white' hispanics.

You are such an idiot sometimes... Vlad... but never more so... than when you are trying to play... "the Race Gotcha Game"... thinking you might be... "trapping a liberal"...

Your first act of idiocy... is acting like "hispanic"... somehow... is a "race"... rather than a cultural/linguistic identification... but then... those of you who try to play... "the Race Gotcha Game"... never do get this one... Largely because... of being idiots...

What makes this doubly idiotic is... your complete failure to comprehend... "hispanic" includes multiple "races"... basically every one that exists... There are blacks who are hispanic... there are whites who are hispanic... there are North/Central/South American natives who are hispanic... there are Asians who are hispanic... there are mixtures of the above who are hispanic... But once again... those of you who try to play... "the Race Gotcha Game"... never do get this one... Largely because... of being idiots (if it seems to you that I have written this part before... it's because I have... it's why I started this one with "but once again"... Just want to make sure you're "keeping up")...

So... as to your question... yes...

Or can hispanics play the race card by claiming not to be white although the sherman lying press use the 'white' hispanic term quite a lot?

Hispanics can... "play the race card" as you say... by claiming to not be white (that is the "non-idiot" phrasing you should have used)... and... no... the press is not "lying"... when they use the term... "white hispanic"... and neither is the non-white hispanic who claims to not be white...

I'm not really holding my breath... waiting for you to grow enough braincells... to understand any of that... or how you make yourself look the idiot... with such statements...
 calliopedreams
Joined: 11/21/2017
Msg: 7832
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/10/2018 10:15:04 PM
Interestingly, I found a lengthy academic treatise from Northwestern University (2003) that claims Gore would have beat Bush if Florida felons had been allowed to vote at the time. This conclusion flies in the face of those offered by the Guardian and Vox.com, which hypothesize there could be a Republican advantage to granting Florida felons voting rights (which I think is pure B.S. - else why would Scott have reversed Crist's Clemency Program?). See page 792:

"Democratic Contraction? Political Consequences of Felon Disenfranchisement in the United States"

Impact on Presidential Elections
Although the outcome of the extraordinarily
close 2000 presidential election could have
been altered by a large number of factors, it
would almost certainly have been reversed
had voting rights been extended to any category
of disenfranchised felons. Even though
Al Gore won a plurality of the popular vote,
defeating the Republican George W. Bush by
over 500,000 votes, he lost narrowly in the
Electoral College. Had disenfranchised felons
been permitted to vote, we estimate that
Gore’s margin of victory in the popular vote
would have surpassed 1 million votes, as
shown in Table 4a. Regardless of the popular
vote, however, one state—Florida—held the
balance of power. If disenfranchised felons
in Florida had been permitted to vote, Democrat
Gore would certainly have carried the
state, and the election.



http://users.cla.umn.edu/~uggen/4111Readings14_small.pdf


So, I have a couple of problems with this statement:
Research shows it isn’t so simple. It’s true that the criminal justice system disproportionately ensnares black Americans, but in raw numbers, the largest cohort of ex-felons in Florida are white men, who tend to vote for Republicans.

A 2012 study by a researcher at Northwestern found that if ex-felons had been able to vote in the 2000 election, it might have actually bolstered the vote totals for George Bush’s narrow victory. A recent study from Vox had similar findings.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/09/florida-amendment-4-felons-voting-rights-response-activists

I have seen the Vox publication, but I wonder why they didn't provide a better source for the Northwestern study of 2012? Anyway, the Northwestern paper I reference above, from 2003, directly contradicts the Guardian position, and their claims about the conclusion of some study produced by Northwestern in 2012.
 LDC9999
Joined: 9/16/2017
Msg: 7833
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/10/2018 10:21:06 PM
The POTUS decided on November 10, 2018 to not attend the memorial ceremonies in France because ‘he didn’t like the inclement weather’.

I wonder what world we would be living in if the soldiers had said ‘we aren’t going to fight today because we don’t like the inclement weather’.
 congupnaroad
Joined: 7/22/2015
Msg: 7834
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/10/2018 10:58:13 PM

The POTUS decided on November 10, 2018 to not attend the memorial ceremonies in France because ‘he didn’t like the inclement weather’


^^^^Fake news, the POTUS didn't cancel the trip, his staff did because the helicopter couldn't fly because of low lying cloud and they had security concerns about hastily organising a motorcade to the site.
 Llove2laughtoo
Joined: 10/22/2018
Msg: 7835
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/10/2018 11:20:08 PM

Msg: 7852
The POTUS decided on November 10, 2018 to not attend the memorial ceremonies in France because ‘he didn’t like the inclement weather’.

I wonder what world we would be living in if the soldiers had said ‘we aren’t going to fight today because we don’t like the inclement weather’.


It is ridiculous that this pathetic cadet bone spurs would travel to France for this significant anniversary, and then remain in his hotel room watching TV rather than pay in person his respects to the Americans who gave their lives in France. The orange kool-aid drinkers should stop making excuses for this pathetic Toddler-In-Chief.
 I_Am_Con_S_Tip_ated
Joined: 4/4/2018
Msg: 7836
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Months?
Posted: 11/11/2018 2:43:49 AM
Jared K was on CNN last night. He looks and sounds very effeminate. Sounded intelligent though. Was peddling prison reform, I guess he has invested in privatization of prisons!
 LDC9999
Joined: 9/16/2017
Msg: 7837
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/11/2018 2:51:47 AM

security concerns


I doubt that anyone in their right mind would attempt anything on his life, as this would mean jail for life and honestly, he's not worth it.
 vlad dracul
Joined: 4/30/2009
Msg: 7838
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/11/2018 4:08:43 AM
Callop
"Interestingly, I found a lengthy academic treatise from Northwestern University (2003) that claims Gore would have beat Bush if Florida felons had been allowed to vote at the time. This conclusion flies in the face of those offered by the Guardian and Vox.com, which hypothesize there could be a Republican advantage to granting Florida felons voting rights (which I think is pure B.S. - else why would Scott have reversed Crist's Clemency Program?). See page 792:

"Democratic Contraction? Political Consequences of Felon Disenfranchisement in the United States"


Well it seems both studies COULD be right or COULD be wrong because it is just theory. No one will know until the next election.

And both studies are assuming that those million odd felons will use their vote. Millions of voters are already disconnected from the process because they see no point voting as nothing much will change in their lives.
 Carnival_Fishing
Joined: 10/2/2018
Msg: 7839
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/11/2018 6:28:25 AM

The POTUS decided on November 10, 2018 to not attend the memorial ceremonies in France because ‘he didn’t like the inclement weather’.


Somebody should show Trump how an umbrella works, so he can attend outdoor events in inclement weather. But it might be too high tech for him. It was evident when he was boarding Air Force 1 last week with an umbrella. The opened umbrella wouldn't fit through the doorway, so instead of closing the umbrella, he just dropped it outside of the plane and left it there. That makes me think he does the same thing when he's home-dropping his underwear, socks, and other clothing on the floor, and expecting the cleaning staff (or Melania) to pick up after him.
 platitude545
Joined: 10/2/2018
Msg: 7840
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/11/2018 11:45:25 AM
Yep Vlad...we will have to wait and see how the convicted felons vote.....but the Republicans are not their friends....the Republicans are bigger crooks than most of the convicted. The Governor of Florida...Scott, started a company that stole almost two billion from Medicare...and then when investigated, took the fifth amendment...refused to answer questions, about 75 times. His company paid a huge fine to the Government and avoided a criminal indictment...and Scott.... was elected Governor, and now most likely Senator. That is the quality of the Republican Party these days....these are the people leading the most powerful country in the world. If you are not scared of who has taken power...you should be, these people are capable of anything so long as it is to their personal benefit.

Back to the Felons...the Republican scourge has repeatedly treated former felons like crap . . those who are likely to vote are likely to know who has fought hardest against them...I'm guessing when they have an opportunity for payback time, they are going to take it.
 BaldwinMotionPhaseIII
Joined: 10/15/2018
Msg: 7841
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/13/2018 8:39:39 AM
"fake news, chump's staff didn't want to risk a helicopter flight in low cloud cover and worried about a motorcade".

>>>fake news is a fake video of CNN's reporter Costa being used as an excuse to take away his pass. Vlad tells us often, Europe is enamoured with nationalists like chump. i hope you aren't saying he's a liar. besides, Reagan could figure out how to visit a graveyard full of Nazis. Probably the real story is, old man chump was tired after all the campaigning, and still sore from the blue wave. Or maybe he feared being laughed at again, like what happened at the UN. or he worried another crying baby chump balloon was going to fly over his head. or he already knew his bromance with Macron was gone. or maybe chump heard there were POWs buried there, since he thinks american POWs are losers. or the rain affected his bone spurs, even if he can't remember which foot has 'em.

betcha ass, if McCain was in office, he wouldn't let a raindrop stop him from paying respects. its likely HRC wouldn't have been such a wimp, either. meanwhile, how's that caravan "invasion" fake news coming, any trumpanzees get told what to say about it yet? i liked that video about chump and his umbrella, that's classic republican thinking:

i don't know what to do with this, so i'm just going to litter it right here and let someone else deal with my mess.
 g0p4everVial
Joined: 11/9/2018
Msg: 7842
Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/13/2018 7:18:46 PM

Or maybe he feared being laughed at again,


put yourself in the shoes of a pompous narcissist (who just got repudiated in the 2018 midterms by his own people), now going before a group of world leaders who have surreptiously repudiated him


he thinks american POWs are losers


being a coward, trump would never go into a burial ground full of fallen heroes (be it in France or in Arlington).....anymore than Dracula would walk into a Church.

Because doing so would force him to confront who he really is ( at his core)...and that is something that his vanity would never permit!
 Million_Reasons
Joined: 10/23/2018
Msg: 7843
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/13/2018 7:26:44 PM
^Wouldn't you feel pompous if you had a teddy bear named after you?

If you are really good...Santa might brimg one for you. :)
 g0p4everVial
Joined: 11/9/2018
Msg: 7844
Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/13/2018 7:37:00 PM

If you are really good...Santa might brimg(sic) one for you


yep I'll try to be "really good", as long as Santa's "real" name is Frederick
 rednwhiterider
Joined: 6/23/2018
Msg: 7845
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/13/2018 8:11:41 PM
do any of you spend any time in cemetery?

fly in all conditions. day in and out...
weather doesn't bother any
French have a lil wh8te flag


have you ever evacuated.
how abt your own kids?
someone else's?

do you ever pray for strangers.
 Galaxie777
Joined: 8/13/2016
Msg: 7846
Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/14/2018 4:07:09 AM
^^ That's the same type of flag the Yanks used at Kasserine Pass and in Vietnam right?
Not to mention in the early stages of the Pacific war.
 Galaxie777
Joined: 8/13/2016
Msg: 7847
Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/14/2018 4:07:26 AM
^^ That's the same type of flag the Yanks used at Kasserine Pass and in Vietnam right?
Not to mention in the early stages of the Pacific war.
 platitude545
Joined: 10/2/2018
Msg: 7848
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/14/2018 8:52:08 AM
Hopeless...rather than worrying about meeting me at a "koko" bar, maybe you should worry about getting to the Vet and having an in depth psychological evaluation...and please stay off Storm Front and Gab........they are turning your mind to mush before our very eyes. Bigly sad.
 Million_Reasons
Joined: 10/23/2018
Msg: 7849
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/14/2018 5:21:26 PM
"French have a lil wh8te flag"

And wave it proudly, they do. I would say the hell with the little French Macroni and let them protect themselves but at the end of the day...Chanel, Dior, Champagne, perfume and breathtaking lavender fields must be protected. So be it.


What I am shocked about is nobody here mentioned the "thumbs up" Putin gave Trump. Hope Mueller was watching. Putin was definetly signaling to Trump he had everything set for 2020! Russian collusion right out in the open...for the whole World to see!

Can't wait to get the midterm recounts over, we need to get back to our regularly scheduled programming of Russia, Russia, Russia!
 rednwhiterider
Joined: 6/23/2018
Msg: 7850
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/14/2018 6:44:33 PM
^^^ I guess... the pastry is worth fighting for.
Taizé was cool too. Hotdogs and beer at the oyak.

You singlehandedly just proved Russia is out to get us.
Must be a top level operative in th AIC or something..
 calliopedreams
Joined: 11/21/2017
Msg: 7851
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Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/15/2018 7:02:43 AM

That's the same type of flag the Yanks used at Kasserine Pass and in Vietnam right?
Not to mention in the early stages of the Pacific war.


Speaking of which, the U.S. had to lend a white flag to the Italians less than 3 months after Kasserine Pass, when we took Tunisia. The Axis forces in Tunisia didn't have anything "white" left, even their panties, in their rush to surrender and the Allies took 275,000 German and Italian prisoners, more than at Stalingrad.
 Galaxie777
Joined: 8/13/2016
Msg: 7852
Will President Elect Donald Trump Last The Full 4 Years?
Posted: 11/15/2018 7:45:17 AM
^Yep another war America had no business being in, and karma will get them in the end.
Considering Hitler diverted all the supplies to the Eastern front they did rather well.
How many Yank prisoners did the Japs take in the early stages of the Pacific war?

Italy and Germany lost a war with the whole world against it, Amerika lost against little Asians with second rate Russian and Chinese weapons.
And has not been able to win a war properly since Grenada, maybe you should just wag the dog there every election cycle.
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