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 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 26
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...Page 2 of 3    (1, 2, 3)
Bonds slips his seven markers, shimmers past lupe mac rubbish
nutmegs Godley humprey and his brother David. He's now through
on goal he rounds the goalkeeper like a steamtrain ...
the goal at his complete mercy, he decides on his left and shoots with
a ferocity that awes the crowds here at Westhumble park.

The crowd are already on their feet as the ball whistles past the
upright and leaves the stadium and clears airspace. Meanwhile
in the stadium the crowd are groaning and beginning to get fractious.
A small boy shouts you're shit billy bonds.. my dad always said it ..
that bonds was a show pony bought on the cheap.

Now bonds has lost his head, he's jumped in the crowd and kung fu
Kicked the kid in the head. Now the kid is chasing bonds
around the pitch. And bonds is shouting that before your
dad your mum slept with a succession of farm animals.
The kid is inconsolable.

Meanwhile the ball is in the stratosphere and is heading for
deep space but what is this suddenly there's a guy on a cloud
with a white beard he's up off his chaiselounge sp?and with
a divine flick of the old ankle it's heading back to Westhumble
park......and it hits the kid on the six yard line then it hits bonds
on the head "shades of brooking in 1980" and it powers into an
empty net.

Billy bonds picks the kid up and they run off down the
south bank where the supporters are erupting. The kid is telling
the brilliant billy bonds that he's sorry and he didn't mean
what he said...bonds is crying too and telling him his mum
only went into the barn to feed them ...everyone is crying
tears of joy . Bonds with the kid held aloft tells reporters
I meant all that it was a tale of easter resurrection and hope.
 et_non
Joined: 1/26/2018
Msg: 27
view profile
History
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 3/30/2018 3:06:19 PM
An RSS Newsfeed stated the City has said the yeild on short term treasury bonds is greater than that on 10, 15 or 20 year bonds. An inverse yield curve basically, the economy has officially entered recession.

Recently, said RSS feed stated (had to dig for this so hope you appreciate it) the following store closures (among others)
Lloyd's Pharmacy - 190 stores
Bank of Scotland - 11 branches
Royal Bank of Scotland - 62 branches
NatWest - 197 branches
Lloyd's Bank - 32 branches
Thomas Cook - 50 stores
Prezzo - 61 stores
Homebase - 40 stores
H & M - 170 worldwide (inspecified uk number)
Quite a few others but I've not heard of them and don't know what they are. Safe to say things aren't looking that great.
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 28
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 3/30/2018 5:30:28 PM
Good point et non an inverted yield curve points to a recession 6 to 12 months after it inverts. The fed has said it will hike the fed funds rate , the lower end of the curve , three more times this year and are selling off long duration treasuries on their balance sheet which should steepen it but is a form of tightening in itself. Nevertheless the market is suddenly panicking.

Just looking at u.s and uk yields ..I think our base rate is about .5 our 2 year is .82 five is 1.10 .ten 1.34 which is great for mortgages. And the thirty year gilt is 1.70%. Who would give the UK government their money (pension funds) for twenty more years for a measly 36 basis points. It's a sick world .

Looking stateside the fed funds rate target is 1.75 at the top end.The fed wants this at 2.5% by year end. The only reason is self preservation so they can pose as our rescuers in the next recession cutting rates. Not a good look if you don't have an interest rate to cut. There is a black humour in all these PhD s trying to look like they have it all together.

The 3 month u.s is 1.71 the 2 year is 2.27 the five year 2.56 and the all important ten year which I have on my phone is down to 2.74%. I've been looking at the ten year on my phone all week in utter amazement.

What does this all mean to the uninitiated? Well the central planners are trying to force up interest rates . So they can stay relevant in the next recession and slash interest rates. Their shameless playbook is capitalism is inherently unstable but don't worry we shall get the punchbowl back by cutting interest rates.

But the market is screaming don't raise interest rates we are dying under the present cost of all this red ink.

The market is buying the 10 year us treasury because it's viewed as a safe asset. Obviously as the price is bid up the yield inversely heads down. Its fall is indicating that at last after ten years of monetary morphine and now brooding on life without their fix. The market is discovering risk again. Do we really want to buy tesla and Netflix again at multiples of their non existant earnings and in their addled view they dont. And are now buying a true safe harbour. The August, ten year u.s. treasury especially for the storm that's brewing. It's always worked in the past. It is the pinnacle of the financial system.

And why not this nonsense is the apogee of globalist propaganda. And who would want to rebel against that apart from us brexiteers Trump supporters. A lot of black people who always knew the system was shit. China men and of course those awful nazis the ruskies.

My rather sober view, as a rather stupid fellow who has long predicted all this is to get the fuck out of dollar denominated assets people.

You see with central command wanting to be our saviours and the troops starting to frighten, the yield curve is flattening. It doesn't even have to invert but a recession could now be 6 to 12 months away. In America they have a committee to proclaim it. Nearly a year after it starts . So it could be two years away in officialdom. In the UK it's defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

An inverting yield curve, say the American 2 year currently 2.27% passing the ten year 2.74 on the way down. Makes banking hard Banks distribute credit around our globalist economy. Borrowing low and lending high. A spread currently just 47 basis points makes things hard. These things happened at the margin, credit slows the economy slows . And of course with all this debt to service we can't afford a recession. But a recession we will get.

Obviously the central banks need to cut rates now but it won't happen this side of a recession. We'll have to beg them to save us from capitalism and the evils of the market. I think we can't do recessions any more. I also would be surprised if the recovery from near death in 2008 can happen this time.

America who bailed the system out with $16 trilion dollars is even more weaker now. China who supplied what real growth we did have went into jaw dropping debt. It's banking system has $40 trillion of credit sitting on 13 trillion dollars of gdp. In comparison America has $17 trillion of credit in their banking system on a 19 trillion economy. Do not count on America's vassal states of Japan and Europe they are basket cases. Who for now will do Washington's bidding.

I think the policy response will be a little of the old playbook perhaps in new ways obviously QE. But universal incomes and helicopter money (printing money without collateral) will be tried as new variants on old themes. Maybe some actual reform a neutral reserve currency in the form of the Sdr may be tried. I hope conflict is minimal. It should be a multi-polar world but the gold is in China. And we know what happened in1944 at Bretton woods when 66% of the gold was quite legitimately in American hands.
 Justanotherchap
Joined: 12/4/2013
Msg: 29
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History
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 3/31/2018 3:28:52 AM
Nice one Billy Boy - a leg end in his own time.

Is it available one video? Cloud?



In order to maintain the highest quality forums you are restricted to having no more then 2 of the last 10 posts on a thread.
Since 2 of the last 10 posts are yours you can not post to this thread.


Yes, but there are only three of us here!
 Justanotherchap
Joined: 12/4/2013
Msg: 30
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Posted: 3/31/2018 3:38:13 AM
The High Street situation is worrying. As someone who designs, builds and sells kitchens I can confirm that our experience is also worrying. I would say that the kitchen industry hasn't recovered from the 2009 shocks and this year it has fallen off a cliff.

We are seeing people now asking for someone to create designs for them so that they can buy pff the internet and, by the way, do we fit other company's kitchens.

The internet is now taking almost 18% of retail sales mostly untaxed and unregulated. That can only result in high street closures or at least replacement of retail stores by food outlets and housing. Yet, go on to facebook and see people moaning about the lack of stores in the high street. (I'm talking about market towns local to here). Really what else can we expect. when was the last time you used a cheque or went int a high street bank? I use internet banking almost exclusively. I did use the local branch of Nationwide but gave up when they closed it. Chicken and Egg situation really. (Happy Easter).
 et_non
Joined: 1/26/2018
Msg: 31
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random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 3/31/2018 3:41:37 PM
Billy

I agree with you, interest rates are the root of the problem, realistically interest rates should be close to the rate of consumer price index percentage rates before there can be a balanced economy. You can't really raise interest rates without making the economy collapse, it's a Catch 22.
It's easy to be cynical, a stock market collapse is on the cards, that will be followed by another round of money printing. One day this constant money printing will catch up with us, the money supply has been inflated, it's a case of waiting for consumer prices to catch up. The public don't seem to see a problem with an inflated money supply.

Right now it would be a good idea to see how your bank is going to cover it's liabilities. My everday banking is with the Clydesdale Bank, which is backed by JP Morgan, hmmmm, assets around 2 trillion debt liabilities around 50 trillion. I've no chance, the Clydesdale will go the way of Northern Rock.
Luckily most of what I have is tied up elsewhere, ready cash for everyday items would be a nuisance though.

Chap

It's a similar situation around this way with high street stores, they're steadily closing, fast food outlets are taking over.
What you say makes sense, I think a lot of businesses haven't recovered from 2008, I think it is going to be even worse this time around. Local independent businesses were always going to be the ones hardest hit by internet trade.
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 32
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 4/1/2018 10:26:27 AM
First of all there are some really great companies out there and really positive stuff is happening in fuel technology and food technology. There is a future if we can just stop the politicians dividing and ruling us.

Global Credit is tightening overall and like chap's personal experience and in a high street I've been
looking at for decades I do see a slight uptick in those to let signs that I like calling toilet signs. In Dorking
a few shops have been empty for awhile although the local paper has news that this will be reversed soon. Have we over built retail space?

I don't think so not in comparison to Australia which is heading for a monumental crash. Or America which has 5 to 15 times more retail space than everyone else.

America also has the state enabled death machine that is Amazon. It's chief Jeff Bezos runs the globalist Washington
post. He's just sacked his lobbying firm in DC...because it can't seem to control a certain orange politician . Can we
guess who. Anyway this beautifully tremendous porn star loving guy is probably just looking to write his newspapers
editorials for him.

All you need to know about Amazon it's a creature of the fascist socialist times we live in. Oswald Mosley was in the labour party before his blackshirt days as an aside. Also you got to love the labour party every time one of them says zionism and anti semitism are not the same thing. I'm not even Jewish but even I cringe at their ways. As issues of irredentism go it's pretty mild and a two state solution is there as soon as the geopolitical games are exhausted. Sorry..also . Benito Mussolini , a journalist ,was a socialist before founding the national fascist party. Fascism is the marriage of the state and the private sphere. Or corporate socialism or nationalisation if you want.

Still Amazon is a corporate..state or socialist entity. As such it's is subsidised quite rightly by the United States postal service. And indeed all the workers of the world. It's been going 25 years and like a true socialist it hasn't made a profit preferring to adopt the parasitical tendencies of the left. Whilst posing as the salt of the earth. I don't think we have to go back too far to see this tremendous company had a $230 billion market capitalisation in Feb 2016 without any profits! !! I know you are not going to be surprised to learn that it's still without profit. And yet it's worth a mere two years later $775bilion dollars . Is it me or has the world gone bonkers.

Tesla less politically connected I feel are along with Netflix just more of the same insanity. Except they are not laying waste to the last vestiges of private enterprise. There will be a reckoning.

Et non I don't know if you know but jp morgan has accumulated 133 billion ounces of physical silver. Make of that what you will.

I suppose getting back to the ten year us treasury that was as high as 2.96% I think a few weeks ago. You might be wondering why the ten year falling now is as equally bad. Well when it's going up it means interest rate costs are rising and people and Companies and governments have less money to spend. So the economy slows just like a tax hike. Well when the ten year falls it can be good. But banks make their money by borrowing low from say their central bank and lending to you, high, over a duration and collecting the spread. If you pay it back ;) But if their central bank is forcing up the interest rate that they control ie the base rate at the bank of England ..the fed's funds rate at America's federal reserve then that spread closes up along the bonds' sundry durations.

Typically a recession follows 6 to 12months after . At the moment the 2 year is 2.27% the ten year 2.74% a 47 basis point spread or .47 and the thirty year is 2.97% a mere 23 basis points. So no inverted yield curve yet. But it has been flattening which would indicate a slowing of credit and a slowing economy . Which chap can attest to and I can see other clues such as a 3% fall in London house prices last year and this year I heard they are falling at their fastest rate since the last recession. And we can see this in growth expectations. Of course brexit and Trump will be blamed this side and that side of the pond . There will be similar games in Australia, canada and say Norway etc..But it's just credit creation or debt expansion slowing or dare I say it contracting. It's the system. This is how it works. It's utterly synthetic or fake.

I don't approve of Trump's tariffs on steel and a whole raft of measures he is said to be lining up. It just will add to America's many problems. But we shall see. So much guff is written about free trade ..that we forget that the British empire and The American empire as well as Germany and France and now China were built on protectionism. It's hard to remember that with all the globalist balderdash.But billy has connected you to your past. No fucking year zero in Surrey.

Just a note on doctor evil over there in Russia, a country surrounded by Nato. Currently having its reputation
degraded by the United kingdom on not a speck of evidence but plenty of propaganda tricks. It's yield curve is kind of inverted .It's central bank rate is 7.25% and its ten year is 7.05 % it's 2 year....ten year spread though is 71 basis points compared to the u.s. 47 basis points. It's exited recession last year and grew at 1.15%. It's inflation is 2.5%. And jobless rate 5%. Between 1996 and 2017 its government debt to gdp was 22% on average. in 2017 it's 12.6 % . With a trade surplus of 16.5%.of gdp or yearly what it produces.

I suppose with interest rates at 7% That's the premium or the norm when you don't have access to the global printing machine that the dollar and its vassals do. Can you imagine our economy with all those mortgage holders paying interest only mortgages being asked to pay seven times their monthly mortgage payments.

Just some imf numbers for global central bank reserves..The dollar is at 62.7% its low was 46% in 1991 I think and its high was about 80% between 1970 and 1977. So rock steady. The euro (which for me is the deutschemark plus the drachma; great for the German export model) is 20.2%...yuan renminbi is 1.2% The yen 4.9% And the formet champ, the pound sterling 4.9%....As an international settlement currency the dollar is at 80%. China's petro-yuan started last Monday. These things happened quietly and at the margins.

Human beings are not rational but are rationalisers.

Happy Easter Sunday since you got to here.. ;)
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 33
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 4/4/2018 9:37:35 AM
Children in English schools are stuffing school dinner food in their pockets. These malnourished children are having their clothes washed by teachers. Sure it's anecdotal. ...see saturday Mail. But it's socialism.

I'm sure one left wing party will be along to blame the right wing party soon. Socialists left, middle and right will demand 1p on income tax to fix it. People will no doubt vote for anything.

The Dow jones index was predicted to open down and it has.Volatility, moribund for two years has returned this year to remind the PhD economists who think they saved the world in 2008 that they didn't. And in that magnificent aphorism of Margaret Thatcher, let me say ....that socialism is fine until you run out of other people's money.

I can't help but think that Trump's trade war with China is not unconnected with china's new petro-yuan contract. In the poetic words of gerry Adams it is not going to go away Trump.

Our glorious post second world war socialism was born in 1944 at Bretton woods when America the world's new hegemonic power using gold made its currency the world's reserve currency This "exorbitant privilege " was abused from the start with the Americans defaulting on its gold obligations on August the 15th 1971. Then came the petrodollar system with America signing a blood pact with Saudi Arabia that's been ruthlessly enforced with the threat or actual violence ever since.

You can see why socialists are far worse than god botherers.And in history their coercive and evil ideology has killed far more people.

When you subsidise something you incentivise it. You also obscure reality. Make children of adults. Have children therefore take adult decisions. To have them misjudge the cost of raising a child. To misprice the cost of capital. The cost of a business venture. Or even the actual cost of medicine or a house. To actually ignore risk. You end up with a global population which was 2 billion say in 1950 being nearly 8 billion now.

China is fed up paying for western socialism. It wants to force those costs rightly on us. In short it wants out of the dollar. Probably so they can bribe their own people with their own money. Which is a fair definition of socialism. Except we have plundered future wealth too.

Socialism doesn't work..don't make me laugh. The subvention was never free. Sure it was redistributive to the 1%. Subsidy just creates demand, false reality, waste and unproductive schemes. It eventually overwhelms the provider whether it's the Chinese , plundered resources, a rich relative or the private productive side of the economy. Now stick your head back in the ground. Because reality is hard to take if you are a life long dreamer because the denouement hasn't even got going.




 acrosstheplains
Joined: 8/1/2017
Msg: 34
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 4/4/2018 1:25:37 PM
27 Coop Bank branches to close.
Whats the chances that within a year more than 50% of their customers will move to another bank still with a high street presence?
You can post again now :))
 rekirked
Joined: 11/7/2017
Msg: 35
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 4/4/2018 3:54:00 PM
Historical average interest rate back in 2008 was around 6%, god knows what it is now.

Cutting rates was putting a plaster over a gaping wound on a horse that had already bolted. They should have stayed where they were or at least bore some resemblance to the long term average, some people would have lost every thing but now 10 years later everyone is going to lose something because someone didn’t have a pair of balls when it mattered and was salvageable.

The high street is fukked because no one has got any money. Being motor trade I can tell you that bizzarely People are still buying 15k+ cars on scratchers finance that will cost nearly 30k over 5 years and they still struggle to find a paltry five hundred quid deposit. Lunacy. No one saves (pointless) everyone just spends next months pay check into Infiniti.

We’re screwed and I honestly think it’s long overdue.
 Justanotherchap
Joined: 12/4/2013
Msg: 36
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random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 4/5/2018 2:02:46 AM
The high street has a problem because almost 20% of retail sales are internet. Who buys staple things like batteries, paper, envelopes, boxes for the office at the stationers. DVDs, games and music are mostly downloadable. Internet banking is killing the high street banks. I do look at people driving new cars and often wonder how come I can't afford one but as ypu say, I believe 85% of new cars are bought on the drip.
 rekirked
Joined: 11/7/2017
Msg: 37
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 4/5/2018 3:05:13 AM
Of that 85% most are on deals that are essentially renting the vehicle. I know of someone who is 29, still lives at home with his parents and has just taken on a new Audi at £500 a month, the balloon payment after his agreement ends is around 20k, he’ll be handing that back.

That’s problem A.
Problem B is that car will be available at three years old to anyone who can spell their name, prove where they live and isn’t bankrupt.

Problem A should be buying or at least renting his own home by now, not living with mum and driving a bit of flash.

Problem B should be buying something that suits their needs and their budget, if they’ve only just scraped through on finance and are going to be shafted with extortionate high risk interest rates it’s worth at least trying to scrape up a couple of grand and buying something cheap, cheerful and reliable outright.


I agree with you about the internet killing the high street, collateral damage is restaurants as we are seeing with the raft of CVA’s for some surprisingly big names. If your not in town shopping you’re not in town eating either.
 Wrightbus71
Joined: 11/26/2017
Msg: 38
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random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 4/5/2018 4:25:38 AM
Well..

Due to me not been the brightest of bulbs on the Christmas tree I felt I ought to ask what exactly are micro economics?

This is probably where I get crucified for been one of the few not so intelligent on here, but hey its warm and sunny here in Altofts ( West Yorkshire ) at 12.25pm 05/04/18 so I`m happy to take me chances :-)

Bryan
 Justanotherchap
Joined: 12/4/2013
Msg: 39
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Posted: 4/5/2018 4:36:16 AM
don't do yourself down Bryan, you are hugel respected on here................

Google is your friend...........
The difference between micro and macro economics is simple. Microeconomics is the study of economics at an individual, group or company level. Macroeconomics, on the other hand, is the study of a national economy as a whole. Microeconomics focuses on issues that affect individuals and companies.
 Wrightbus71
Joined: 11/26/2017
Msg: 40
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random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 4/5/2018 5:09:08 AM
I thank you Chappy for your kind words and knowledge..

I might just have a go with google and see how it pans out....

Every day is a school day right!!
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 41
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 4/6/2018 5:24:36 AM
Well I bought my car with cash even though I think the loans at the time were 0%. I've heard that those deals don't exist as much in the United States. Who are going through the early stages of a sub-prime auto loan crisis. Our stats for March on new registrations here in the UK were dire, diesels cratered.I was talking to a guy roughly on six figures and he just has a £30,000 car every three years. His car is always new and under Warranty he just pays 3,000 a year and moves on. I think dealerships will get more desperate and I can see a glut of second hand cars. It's a buyers' market for now.

Listening to bloomberg and they are awaiting the non farm payrolls. Trump has already suggested that u3 will be a great figure. This is pure propaganda to keep us shopping and going deeper into debt. U.S. unemployment is not 4% but 22%. a Depression era level.

Our globalist economy is a credit based monetary system. That means we need credit to grow . If credit doesn't grow we tend to deleverage and go into a recession , and if that isn't arrested it will mean the system collapses.

Quite rightly China with 40 trillion of banking credit sitting on a 13 trillion economy want to rein it in. Compare it to America's 17 trillion dollars on top of a $19 trillion economy. Americans meanwhile want to shrink their balance sheet and raise interest rates so they can add to the fed's balance sheet and cut interest rates in the next recession.

Bloomberg is just an all day exercise in rationalisation.

So in essence credit is slowing and hence economic growth is falling. Someone needs to turn the credit tap on and quickly.

Bloomberg have come up with the mighty yen as a safe haven. Lol. This is why I suspect that we have not seen the
low in the ten year treasury yield or the low in gold. So first It's the dollar and then when it dawns on our oh so modern world, it shall then be showtime for gold.
 Justanotherchap
Joined: 12/4/2013
Msg: 42
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Posted: 4/6/2018 9:34:55 AM
The problem with all that credit stuff is where is it going. Look on he TV to see so many people buying ancient trash for lots of money. Grab a bargain house at only 3 or 4 hundred thousand. How does that work then? Who can really repay that sort of money without inflation? (poor person talking here obviously).

My mate (who is rich) bought a oe year old ferrari for £106,000 around 10 or 11 years ago. As he was too frightened of getting it scratched or wet, he hardly ever used it and sold it for £60,000 about 5 years ago. Should he want to buy it back they are now around £150,000. Where has all that extra value come from. how come there are so many people around with a hundred grand to spend on a car?
 duracell_bunny_one
Joined: 1/21/2015
Msg: 43
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 4/6/2018 11:17:28 AM
I was looking at changing cars-had mine a while
& my garage had recomended Audi (not Volvo, my first choice)
I enter ye dealership (odd feeling, don't do this much) & make a
deep & lasting friendship with wassisname, one of the salesmen
(wot - no wimmin?)
Anyway, wassisname seems quite keen (!) that I buy a new one
on one of their marvellous lease/buy option thingys..........
at 9%..........
As I was looking for a slightly used beast (I only do about 4K/year),
px the existing one & chucking a fair number of readies into the pot,
he suddenly seemed less than interested.......so was I...........

 rekirked
Joined: 11/7/2017
Msg: 44
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 4/6/2018 11:34:14 AM
They make bugger all on used cars bunny, they only make if you finance it and fall for the BS about extended warranties and paint protection etc etc. If they know you’re a cash buyer they’re not going to be that interested. Most big car supermarkets pay CAP retail for stuff at auctions just for the stock, like I said it’s not about a mark up anymore, it’s about bolt ons and commissions.
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 45
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 4/8/2018 4:15:24 AM
I think the easy way to look at it, is that because they print so much of the stuff it is the paper's value that is coming down not the Ferrari going up.

If actual stuff (gdp) is roughly the same every year give or take 1 or 2% The surfeit of paper just bids up prices. It's an inflationary monetary system that needs to constantly devalue to pay the debt . As all legal tender fiat is credit based.


I think we now can't pay the debt. Despite inflating the monetary supply we can't seem to get inflation. True we have had house price inflation which we all enjoy, unless you're a millennial. As well as stockmarket inflation and ferrari inflation. But not much cpi inflation.

But inflation for me is two part 1 unsound money and we have had that. But 2 it's behavioural and that can be seen in the velocity of money. It doesn't matter if you print quadrillions of paper or add digits to a computer ledger, if a unit of currency is not moving around the economy there is no inflation.

Instead we keep getting deflation which is a bogeyman for banks, they need to devalue currency, and governments who cannot work out how to tax an increase in a currency's value.

The reasons for deflation in western countries are demographics or a scarcity of debt serfs. Technology. Deleveraging. A seemingly inexhaustible supply of cheap labour and chiefly too much debt. All our currency is credit or debt. At its inception it is issued as a bond.

I'm failing to keep this simple ...so what will happen to save us from this monetary chaos.. ..well war ..wars are a "good" way to get inflation because war bonds always do lousy in war.

A monetary reset, perhaps the new petro-yuan contract will bid up the price of gold. And the dollar, to flip Nixon's treasury secretary's retort, will be America's problem at last. Also global central banks could get their inflation by declaring a gold price of $10,000 dollars. And defend that price by declaring to all that they would be buyers and sellers either side of that price with their fiat.

Or a bit of both, a monetary reset took place in the seventies under the cover of middle eastern war. I think oil went from $2.50 a barrel to $11 dollars to lap up the glut of money printing or currency debauchment that the Americans had been doing to fund their guns and butter policy. Namely war with Vietnam and the great society at home. That's the 45 million on food stamps, 22% unemployment, 65,000?...opioid overdoses in 2017 one.

Apparently when the shah of Iran (CIA installed) was asked why the price of oil had quadrupled he answered ...don't ask me, ask Mr kissinger.

I'm off to Guildford for roast dinner....I'm so hungry..
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 46
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 4/12/2018 2:20:06 PM
Have a good time billy thanks Bill.

So China is in a awful amount of debt. Their banking system has $40 trillion of debt on a gdp of $13 trillion. America's is $17 trillion on a $19 trillion economy. China it's fair to say has been propping itself up and the rest of the world these past ten years by going deeper and deeper into debt.

China though has been building its military up and also a manufacturing base. It doesn't go around the world like the Anglosphere killing people and stealing their property. In short China is making friends. This has been achieved by protectionism. The method America used and us before them. They also thieve intellectual property and manipulate their currency to retain the competitive edge of its export model.

China's official gold reserves are understated. I don't think they claim 2000 tonnes. But I believe they have more official gold then they let on. Also no gold leaves China and they mine 400 tonnes a year as well as being big importers.

Switzerland are the biggest gold refiners in the world. No gold stamped Chinese bars ever show up. The bars that do turn up are usually according to serial numbers, bars that last saw the light of day in the 1950s. Where does this gold come from. It can only be America or London.  India just buys.

China's new and much delayed  petroyuan futures contract that started on March the 26th is now a reality. Since its inception the news has been tariffs and Syrian chemical attacks.

It's quite simple China the world's biggest oil importer prices its Futures contract in yuan and the seller can turn up in shanghai , Hong Kong or dubai and it's convertible into gold.no Chinese gold is involved it never leaves China.  The Chinese are squeezing western gold. It's You take the derivatives we'll take the underlying asset or stuff.

What China is saying to comex gold and the London bullion management association  LBMA. Two derivative gold markets Is give us the gold  at $ 1, 330 dollars if that's its real price and we want to take  physical delivery.

This is effectively opening the bretton woods gold window again. America can do a number of things.
But none of them are that brillant. Very clever those Chinese
 Justanotherchap
Joined: 12/4/2013
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Posted: 4/13/2018 1:34:08 AM
The Chinese don't go around the world killing people and stealing land? Tell that to the countries round the China Sea? Tell that to the people of Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, the Philippines.

and what about Tibet with forced removal of people, military rule, mass forced immigration?

It is invading Africa, Asia and Europe, OK not wit an army but with money (they don't have) and mass corruption. David Cameron is helping with that one.
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 48
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 4/13/2018 3:16:04 PM
OK I'll tell them....Vietnam? ...... Nanking ..the opium wars...David Cameron ? he's not worth your time. ...

They've been propping up our potemkin economy the last ten years..We sure will miss that soon . I take your point though they really don't have our interests at heart. China 1st 2nd and 3rd..**stards. They should continue to slave in their factories for us.

Meanwhile the USA don't occupy militarily over a 130 countries. Make up fake news . And screw other countries royally by stealing from them .. the Nixon shock or slaughtering innocents ..Iraq libya. .. the petrodollar. ..let China get in charge, then measure them .


Bubble news ... Tesla has three billion dollars of cash on its balance sheet. Albeit with 10 billion debt. Its share price was $380 but is now $255 ...still not zero ....it lost $2 billion last year.It borrows money in the form of its customer's deposits. This money burning operation is valued at twice ford's. Tesla made 100,000 cars last year.
The more cars they make the bigger the loses .


Ford made 6 million cars at a $ 7.6 billion profit ...and has $12 billion cash on its balance sheet for a rainy day.
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 49
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 4/13/2018 11:24:44 PM

https://youtu.be/COq99jjnDYk







Vvv I'll watch this one today...vvvvv




https://youtu.be/AT0hXQZYgwQ
 Justanotherchap
Joined: 12/4/2013
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Posted: 4/14/2018 2:24:48 AM
ah well - the world is bonkers.

I'll see your Tesla and raise you Spotify which is now worth around 20 billion apparently which is approximately £1100 per signed up user. Given that no one pays more than about a tenner a month ....................etc
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