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 caffeine7
Joined: 12/30/2004
Msg: 39
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History
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?Page 4 of 3    (1, 2, 3)
N. Lights,


Mind you however that there's nothing more dangerous than exponential population growth


YOU GOT THAT RIGHT!!
 sunshineheart
Joined: 6/29/2006
Msg: 41
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 10/14/2006 6:22:16 PM
Peak Oil is no myth. Our society is addicted to oil, and without it our entire civilization will collapse as we know it. Its not just about gas in your car. It is the number one product used in farming, mining, transport/ trade, ect...not to mention all the products using plastic. If the demand gets too much higher, and prices get too high for oil, it will start to ripple down thoughout the rest of the economy...its more important that most people think

We are peaking. Not only are we having difficuties keeping up with demand, but some new countries are at the market using up more oil too. China and India are experiencing rapid 'westernisation' and are strarting to consume oil at ever increasing rates.

Most people think the government and scientists will take care of the problem. These people are in denial. We are all addicted to oil...and we are going to crash.

David Suzuki said it most beautifuly....he said.....

"Oil is a one time gift. It is the bones of our ancestors"

Nope people, wake up..there has never been anything like it, in terms of usable, storable energy...nor will we invent our way out of it. We built this world on oil, but we cant feed our habit much longer.
 3048469
Joined: 12/24/2006
Msg: 42
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 9/3/2007 11:11:24 PM
Great site to discuss Peak Oil with others who are interested:

http://www.peakoil.com/

Anyways i believe this is a threat to the world. I believe controlling Oil is a major reason the U.S. attacked Iraq and now may be more inclined to also attack Iran. Especially due to Iran's wish to trade in Euros which was already mentioned in this thread.

Also if one stops and thinks about the world population before the Oil Age it was approximately 1/6th it is now. Could the end of oil have our populations plummet some?

Not to mention the cost to transporting goods from other areas will continue to rise as gas prices rise. Soon your grocery stores will have to stock the shelves with all local produce. No more shipping in stuff from Europe cause the cost will be to high. Major metropolitan areas may have issues with supply.

Alternate energy resources are good but you have to also consider the amount of energy the alternate method takes to generate or the harm to the environment in creating them. A cost benefit analysis so to speak as some alternate forms are not the golden solution some claim.

So when will this happen? I for one don't really care if it's 5 years or 50 years as a solution and creative thinking needs to start now. Not when it's already to late. But will politicians do anything when big oil companies are major contributers to there campaigns or making sacrifices now limits your ability to get voted in a second term? Politicians are all about the now, not 30 years from now cause that doesn't help them in the polls. But times are slowly changing.
 wanderer1999
Joined: 2/10/2007
Msg: 48
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History
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 9/8/2007 1:28:33 AM
*sigh*

If only people had a better understanding of oil production.

There are two basic definitions of "Peak Oil" production.

The first is a finite limit of pumpable/refinable oil.

The idea is that crude reserves are finite, and those fields are producing at an ever decreasing level. Let's say you have an oil field with 100 barrels. The first 25 barrels basically gush out of the ground. It takes no effort to pump. The next 25 take serious work, requiring the best technology. The last 50 are currently impossible to extract due to the nature of oil geology.

Pumping oil is NOT like pumping oil out of a bucket. It's not like there's a huge underground cavern that you just stick a straw in and suck out.

Oil actually exists in porous rock strata. Think of it like a sponge with oil trapped in the pockets. Essentially, the oil exists in a contained underground chamber, usually under some level of pressure (due to surrounding rock), which permeates the strata of rock.

When you initially tap that chamber, the surrounding pressure of the chamber forces the oil out (like putting a sponge under pressure). As you deplete the oil from the rock, the pressure drops until there is no longer sufficient pressure for it to pump itself. As the pressure decreases, the rate at which the oil can be pumped decreases.

Once the pressure drops to a certain level, then oil can only be pumped out at the rate that the oil moves through the porous material. Think of it like tapping an underground water aquifer. You can only pump as fast as the water pools at the bottom. However, oil is far more viscous (thicker), and thus slower moving than water.

In order to maintain that level of production, you must employ increasingly more sophisticated methods to extract the remaining oil. The simplest way is to force another substance into the pores (such as gases or water) into the rock, thus increasing the pressure and forcing oil towards your pump at a faster than normal rate.

As the level of oil continues to decrease, you must employ increasing amounts of pressure to force oil towards your pump in order to extract it (increasing costs). Eventually, you reach the limits of technology to extract the remaining oil, leaving substantial amounts of oil essentially inaccessible.

For every 100 barrels of oil in the ground, current technology is limited to recovering only 50 barrels. In other words, 1/2 of all oil reserves found on the planet are completely inaccessible using current technology.

This is why oil fields have increasingly declining yields as they age. This is called reaching "Peaking", which applies to all oil fields in the world that are exploited. When applied to nations, then you can say that a particular nation's oil fields have reach "Hubbert's Peak". This held true in the continental United States (1970's), and is arguably occuring now in Saudi Arabia (though the Saudi's will debate this).

The second definition of Peak Oil production is one that is viewed in the context of current and future oil production in relation to growing rates of demand. World oil demand is increasing at a rate of 3 to 5% per year (some would say 1 to 2%), depending upon who's statistics you believe. The world consumption of oil was 86 million barrels per day, with the United States accounting for 22 million barrels/day of current oil consumption, the remaining demand comes from the rest of the world. China (6.7m/day), India (2.6m/day) + all the other nations. Currently, oil production capacity is growing nowhere near the current rate of oil demand.

To put this in context, if the world oil consumption is 31.4 billion barrels per year. Due to declining yields, all world wide oil production is decreasing at a rate of 5 to 8%. Even without additional oil demand, you need to bring online anywhere from 1.6 billion to 2.4 billion barrels per year (through either improved pumping or additional drilling), every year.

On top of that, in order to satisfy global oil demand growth of just 2%, you would need to add an additional 627 million barrels per year. Every year.

Grand total, you need to add anywhere from 2.2 billion to 3 billion barrels per year of pumping capacity online, each year, every year.

Between 1955 and 1965, oil reserves were being discovered at a rate of 50 billion barrels per year. In 2004 new oil reserves were discovered totalling 10 billion barrels. Even if you immediately exploit an oil field, you can only extract it at a certain rate limited by the field, the number of rigs, and the infrastructure to transport that oil to markets through pipelines and tankers.

To put this in perspective, Iraq's total oil output is approximately 627 million barrels per year. To match current declining oil production plus world wide oil consumption growth, you would need to find and bring online the pumping capacity of 2.5 to 3 Iraq's per year, every year.

When analysts speak of "peak oil", they are not necessarily referring to the same thing. They can be referring to one of two things.

1) Peak production of all types of crude.

2) Peak production of light/sweet crudes.

Whether Hubbert's peak applies to global accessible crude sources (including heavy crudes and synthetics) is up for debate. The tar sands represent estimated crude reserves equalling Saudi Arabia. And there are potentially billions of barrels of crude in the Arctic, Siberia, and other difficult to access regions. Let's assume that this is still up in the air, as the reserves in the Arctic and other remote regions are still unknown.

As for Peak production of light/sweet crude, this is not up for any debate at all.

Maybe you have heard people refer to Texas sweet crude, or Brent Northern crude. Not all crude oil is created equally.

Oil is not a monolithic commodity. It is actually graded according to quality based upon tar and sulfur content.

Light/sweet crudes are the easiest and cheapest to refine into petroleum derivatives like gasoline, diesel, jet fuel or manufacturing chemicals.

From there, you move to heavy crudes (those with higher tar sulfur content).

And beyond that are what are called synthetic crudes (tar sands, coal liquification, wood chip extraction, etc.

As tar and sulfur content increases, the costs of refining increase rapidly. If all the crude in the world was light/sweet crude, then oil would still be at $20/barrel. However, processing most heavier crudes aren't even break even until oil breaks $35/barrel.

Synthetics are the most expensive and require huge energy and resource inputs. Most synthetics aren't even break even until oil break $65 per barrel, while some of the more exotic synthetic crudes (like biomass extracted or coal liquification) require oil prices of over $100 per barrel.

Even within a synthetic crude type break even points change. While there are billions of barrels of potential crude in the tar sands, less than 10% is currently accessible at $65 per barrel. Curent exploitable tar sands are like coal in that small amounts are at the surface and can be strip mined relatively cheaply, the remaining 90% are in subterranean pockets and veins that would require extensive mining operations.

In other words, of the billions of barrels of potential tar sands crude, only about 10% can be economically extracted, even with oil at $75 per barrel. The rest requires increasing oil prices of $90 per barrel all the way upwards to over $150 per barrel.

The other alternative is to extract raw crude from increasingly remote areas like the Arctic, Alaska and Siberia.

Unfortunately, the cost of extracting the crude (which is high) is only the beginning. You still need to transport all that crude from these remote areas, requiring astronomical expenditures on shipping or pipelines.

Either way, whether you are dealing with more remote fields or more exotic sources, the cost of oil is going up in the long run. Way, way, way up.

On a final note, while gasoline for cars does represent the bulk of oil consumption, a large part of oil demand is not from passenger cars.

Even if everyone in the US switched to hybrid cars tomorrow (not going to happen unless they tax cars/gasoline sky-high, subsidize hybrids like crazy, or just oulaw regular cars), it would only address a small part of the problem.

US gasoline consumption for cars/light trucks is 140 billion gallons per year.

Increasing mileage by 15% for every car in the US would reduce consumption by ~ 21 billion gallons to 119 billion gallons.

If gasoline consumption continues to grow at 2% per year, you would reach 140 billion gallons of demand in approximately 8 years, and you are back to where you started.

Additionally, consider the following...

-Virtually all trucks require diesel
-Virtually all trains run on diesel
-Virtually all ships run on diesel
-All planes consume jet fuel (no current substitutes)
-All plastics (nylon, rayon, PVC, etc) require petroleum derivatives (no current substitutes)
-Most manufacturing uses oil derivatives (ethylene, benzene, toluene, etc) in one form or another (no current substitutes)
-Most fertilizers and virtually all pesticides are created from oil derivatives (no current substitutes)
-All asphalt requires oil derivatives

As for home energy consumption, crude oil only supplies 3% of the entire US electrical grid. 50% is from coal, 18% from natural gas, 19% from nuclear, 8% from hydro-electric, with renewables comprising ~2%.

Put in all the solar panels you want. The impact on US oil consumption is trivial.

Finally, biofuels just trades one problem for another. Producing corn to create ethanol just substitutes food for fuel. Corn is heavily used in the feeding of livestock as well as human food and syrup for sweeteners in cooking and beverages. Creating billions of gallons of Ethanol demand drives prices for corn sky-high, while at the same time driving up the price of other crops that grow on corn-friendly land such as soybeans (also used for feed and food).

This is aside from the fact that meeting global gasoline demand would require clear-cutting hundreds of millions of acres of forest world-wide.

The entire US corn crop was approximately 9 billion bushels in 2006. This is anticipated to rise to 13 billion bushels in 2007.

Current technology allows the production of 2.5 gallons of ethanol per bushel of corn.

If you took the entire 2007 corn crop of the US and converted it to Ethanol, you would yield approximately 32.5 billion gallons of Ethanol.

Current US gasoline consumption for light vehicles alone (passenger cars and light trucks) is approximately 140 billion gallons of Gasoline.

Think about this carefully.

Entire US corn crop - 13 billion bushels
IF the Entire US corn crop was converted to Ethanol - 32.5 billion gallons
US Light vehicle Gasoline consumption - 140 billion gallons

Average corn yield per acre - 140 bushels
Average ethanol yield per acre - 350 gallons

Total acres required to match shortfall to switch to 100% ethanol - 308 million Acres

Total US acres currently growing corn - 90 million acres
Total farmland in the United States - 983 million acres
Percent of worldwide corn production represented by the US - 10.3%

In other words, if you convert almost 1/2 of all US farmland to corn production, then convert ALL the corn to Ethanol, you would have just enough ethanol to fuel the existing cars on the road. This would be assuming that all the land was suitable for growing corn (which it isn't).

You would then need to plant another 80 million acres every year just to keep up with growing gasoline demand. In less than 10 years, you would then run out of farmland and need to start levelling forests or cities.

Another way to look at it is if you took 1/2 of all the corn grown on the Planet Earth and converted it to ethanol, you would have just enough to fuel all the light vehicles in the United States, and within 6 years would be consuming ALL the corn on the planet.

This does not include trucks, buses, planes, ships or trains.

This assumes of course that either you don't want any food grown in the US at all, or that you want to eliminate corn use worldwide for anything but Ethanol.

Get used to high oil prices. They're going to get higher. And there's not much we can do about it any time soon for multiple decades.
 svj
Joined: 9/15/2007
Msg: 52
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 9/26/2007 12:12:46 PM
I say just get rich now, so you don't have to deal with these problem first hand later. That's what I'm doing.

I don't see the problem, personally. I think capitalism will save the day. (How often do you get a chance to say that??)

Alternative fuel sources are held back by cost of production.

When the price of oil comes up to the price of production of the next lowest priced energy source, our economy will become more receptive to the switch.

If I remember correctly (I may certainly be wrong on this number), the price of solar and wind is generally twice that of oil now. Meaning that oil should top out at around $140-$180 a barrel, before demand starts to severly wane.

Growing pangs from switch-over? Yes.

Recession? Certainly.

Depression? Probably. The consumer is already stretched to the limit of their buying power. Rather than curb their spending, the average consumer just takes debt instead... it's going to take a pretty sharp smack upside the head before your average knuckle-dragging North American changes his spending habits. Now double your energy prices.

But that's part of our natural economic cycle.... to screw up the system so badly we have to re-value everything once in awhile. It won't be the end of the world, although, given the current cushy position in which we sit, it may feel like it.

Solution? It pretty much has to play out naturally. There will be no intervention until an unavoidable problem hits us in the face. Your average Joe just wants to go to work, come home, watch TV, and avoid higher thought processes at all costs. And the people on top are making too much money from the status quo.

 svj
Joined: 9/15/2007
Msg: 54
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 9/27/2007 9:23:07 PM
That was the States' peak. They went from a net exporter to a net importer in the early 70's. There is a large debate in the oil community as to whether we're now just beginning the world peak, at it, or slightly past it.

Problem is, none of the OPEC countries do any honest reporting of their reserves, so nobody knows for sure.
 wanderer1999
Joined: 2/10/2007
Msg: 55
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History
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 5/14/2008 12:47:31 AM
Hrm... with oil at $125 a barrel, seems like a good time to revisit this thread.

Hehehe.

Wanderer
 Beaugrand®™©
Joined: 3/24/2008
Msg: 56
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History
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 5/14/2008 5:20:27 AM
Visit other threads debating this topic and you see a lot of angry railing against Big Oil, Big Government, Conspiracy Theories, and a number of Fascist/Socialist schemes (mostly authored by individuals who think of themselves as "conservative") for controlling prices, regulating commodities investing, punishing profitable companies, and even nationalizing the oil industry (right, and if you think gas prices are high now, imagine how efficient an industry run by civil servants would be).
We can't control supply but we can and should do what we can to rein in demand. 63% of energy use in the US is related to transportation, the obvious solution is to make more efficient use of existing vehicles, and manufacture only efficient new vehicles.
 incoherent
Joined: 1/4/2009
Msg: 60
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 3/9/2009 8:11:29 PM
Reviving an old thread for some recent information. I made this chart in Excel of the EIA's data of world oil production:
http://www.updebate.org/phpBB2/album_pics/173.jpg

As you can see, world oil production hit a plateau in late 2004, and hasn't risen much in spite of record prices last year. That incredible rise in price is what threw us into this deepening recession we're now in. Sub-prime and MBSs are just symptoms of the real problem, increasing demand against a stagnant oil supply. If the economy ever shows signs of recovery and oil demand increases again, you'll see the price shoot back up, because I'm willing to bet we have hit peak oil, and the world will never pump more that 74mb/d shown in the chart. Because of the oil-price caused collapse of the credit markets, even oil explorers can't get funding to continue with exploration, and they're shutting down numerous projects that were supposed to keep us at the plateau for another few years. Now, with places like Mexico, the North Sea and Prudhoe Bay suffering production collapses do to their using the latest extraction techniques, We'll see supply come down the meet demand very soon, within a year or three. Then prices will start going up again.

Even right now, people are actually using more gasoline than last year because the price is so low in comparison. That's pushing oil and gasoline prices back up. Oil is over $47/bbl and gas should be well over $2.00 at the pump within a month. We've left the expansion phase of western civilization and we're now entering the contraction phase. How does exponential population decline strike your fancy?
 EarlzP
Joined: 12/9/2007
Msg: 61
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History
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 3/10/2009 5:41:08 PM

Sub-prime and MBSs are just symptoms of the real problem, increasing demand against a stagnant oil supply.


Your right about symptoms however supply and demand were never involved in the high price of oil, oil prices were inflated because of the commodity traders and their friends on Wall Street and in the Banking CEO's
 incoherent
Joined: 1/4/2009
Msg: 62
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 3/10/2009 8:02:22 PM
I have to disagree. If you look at the link in my message, you'll see that the oil supply has been stagnant for almost four years. During this time, China and India were growing their energy use at double digit percentage rates per year, while the US and Europe were increasing their use at 1-2% per year. "Spare capacity" was gone, the oil producers were pumping all out, and still the price rose.

Don't believe me, but believe OPEC (and MSNBC article from March, 2005)
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7190109/



Despite a pledge by OPEC ministers to increase oil production, don't expect much of a break on oil prices. With crude oil prices hitting a record $56 a barrel Wednesday, OPEC ministers meeting in Iran have been grappling with a problem they haven’t confronted in the cartel’s 45-year history. In the past, OPEC tried to cool overheated prices by pumping more when supplies got too tight. But most OPEC producers say they’re already pumping as fast as they can. And despite the high cost of a barrel of crude, world demand shows no signs of slowing.


The "excuse" of oil price speculation is designed to quash any fears the populace might have about oil "running out". They'll say any lie to obscure the fact that oil is a finite resource, and that we're probably right at the peak in production. The corporate controlled media doesn't want the common people starting the think that maybe they should start growing their own food and saving money instead of spending it. Crap, Obama said just the other day that Americans should be out spending and not putting their money in the mattress.
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-BarackObama/idUSTRE5262CW20090307
If people do that, how is Walmart going to make any money?

By the way, I have data that indicates that at the very top of oil prices, the large speculators were net short oil. In other words, they were selling contracts, hoping for it to go down, not up. They actually put downward pressure on the price, otherwise oil could have been much closer to $200.
 EarlzP
Joined: 12/9/2007
Msg: 63
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History
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 3/10/2009 8:17:03 PM

By the way, I have data that indicates that at the very top of oil prices, the large speculators were net short oil. In other words, they were selling contracts, hoping for it to go down, not up. They actually put downward pressure on the price, otherwise oil could have been much closer to $200.


Data can be configured to mean any thing, I saw the results of the last real shortage we had in the 70s as I sat in line in my car waiting to get to the pumps, and then their was the rally cry of drill baby drill which some how just disappeared after the election, There never was an oil shortage, so the speculators in a fit of consciousness decided to put downward pressure on oil prices and I have some ocean front property in Arizona want to by some?
 incoherent
Joined: 1/4/2009
Msg: 64
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 3/10/2009 9:29:22 PM
Um, were certainly was/is an oil shortage. When you can't afford it, it's a shortage to you. The ingenious language of economics differentiates between a shortage and high prices, when they mean the same thing. On top of that, here's a thread on peakoil.com that catalogs news reports of global shortages http://peakoil.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=30369

"Drill baby, drill" is a fool's hope. Oil doesn't suddenly appear merely because you drill a hole into the ground. ANWAR and the east coast US might, I repeat might, contain 10 billion barrels of oil combined. We use about 7 billion barrels a year in the US alone. Those are the last, best hopes for major discoveries. We're using 6 barrels for every one we find now. Do you think that's going to improve any time soon?

The data I have comes from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the regulatory agency for commodity trading (equivalent to the SEC for stocks). Commodity traders use that data to trade every week when it comes out. You can demean it all you want, but it's a pretty good guide to how to trade the commodity markets near and medium term.

I just need to ask, are you suggesting that oil supplies are infinite because then I have a bridge to sell you, or just that there's plenty and it won't peak in your lifetime, then I must wonder what makes you think you're so special that you're protected and will pass off the catastrophe to your kids or grandkids?
 EarlzP
Joined: 12/9/2007
Msg: 65
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History
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 3/11/2009 5:50:46 AM

I just need to ask, are you suggesting that oil supplies are infinite because then I have a bridge to sell you, or just that there's plenty and it won't peak in your lifetime, then I must wonder what makes you think you're so special that you're protected and will pass off the catastrophe to your kids or grandkids?


As you stated oil supplies are not infinite, but that does not mean that the shortage was not created by speculators. I am all for president Obama's plan to invest an alternate energy sources, why? because not to do so puts us in a position of where one day there will be oil shortages, we need to move away from fossil fuels as soon as possible

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/01/08/60minutes/main4707770.shtml

My thoughts are that when we get into serious energy research you will see the prices go down, alternate energy will compete in the market place with fossil fuels reducing demand and driving down the cost of oil. Supply and demand should drive costs not greedy speculators lining their pockets at the expense of our elderly and poor
 incoherent
Joined: 1/4/2009
Msg: 66
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 3/11/2009 11:31:04 AM
Okay, so world oil production data doesn't convince you that there was (and still is) a supply problem. Also, I did mention that the corporate controlled mass media has a vested interest in convincing you that there isn't a problem, yet you drag out a mass media puff piece as fact?


"From quarter four of '07 until the second quarter of '08 the EIA, the Energy Information Administration, said that supply went up, worldwide supply went up. And worldwide demand went down. So you have supply going up and demand going down, which generally means the price is going down," Masters told Kroft.


That's patently false. While supply did indeed increase about 1mb/d during that period, it was after a decline in production of more that amount, since the production barely got back to May, 2005 levels. In the meantime, even while demand was coming down slightly, world oil demand was running higher than supply for 2 1/2 years. (2006, 2007 and Q1&2 of 2008) http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t21.xls (excel chart)
If you look at that excel chart, it will show that demand finally went below supply in Q3 of 2008, right when oil prices were coming down. It wasn't supply and demand???

Please don't try to convince me with feel-good news articles that leave out pertinent facts to make their case. Their only mission is to sell you stuff. If you knew that oil production has probably peaked and "economic growth" was over, you'd hunker down and stop spending, which would hurt their advertising revenue. They don't care about you, they only care about themselves and their profits.

If they were "alternatives", we'd be using them already. Before you think that transportation is our biggest problem, read this:
"Eating Fossil Fuels"
http://fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/100303_eating_oil.html
 EarlzP
Joined: 12/9/2007
Msg: 67
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History
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 3/11/2009 12:58:14 PM
Okay, so world oil production data doesn't convince you that there was (and still is) a supply problem. Also, I did mention that the corporate controlled mass media has a vested interest in convincing you that there isn't a problem, yet you drag out a mass media puff piece as fact?


I did not really need convincing I just needed to remember what a gas shortage was like.long lines at the gas station on alternate fueling days until I see that with my own eyes I will not believe there ever was a gas shortage what we did experience was the unregulated greed of wall street and the banking CEO's



"From quarter four of '07 until the second quarter of '08 the EIA, the Energy Information Administration, said that supply went up, worldwide supply went up. And worldwide demand went down. So you have supply going up and demand going down, which generally means the price is going down," Masters told Kroft.


So according to you the president of the Petroleum Marketers Association had no idea of what he was talking about when he said there was no shortage



That's patently false. While supply did indeed increase about 1mb/d during that period, it was after a decline in production of more that amount, since the production barely got back to May, 2005 levels. In the meantime, even while demand was coming down slightly, world oil demand was running higher t'wsan supply for 2 1/2 years. (2006, 2007 and Q1&2 of 2008) http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t21.xls (excel chart)
If you look at that excel chart, it will show that demand finally went below supply in Q3 of 2008, right when oil prices were coming down. It wasn't supply and demand???


If the chart was accessible I would still question the validity of the numbers



Please don't try to convince me with feel-good news articles that leave out pertinent facts to make their case. Their only mission is to sell you stuff. If you knew that oil production has probably peaked and "economic growth" was over, you'd hunker down and stop spending, which would hurt their advertising revenue. They don't care about you, they only care about themselves and their profits.

Please don't try to convince me that it was all about supply and demand it was not it was about greed greed greed as evidenced by the huge profits the oil companies made, prices went down because the speculators dumped their oil



If they were "alternatives", we'd be using them already.


Why would the oil companies want to invest in new energy technology? For that matter why have the auto manufacturers not been involved in new power sources for our vehicles? President Obama will provide the incentive to open the doors to new energy technology



Before you think that transportation is our biggest problem, read this:
"Eating Fossil Fuels"
http://fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/100303_eating_oil.html


When I have the opportunity I will try to ingest "Eating Fossil Fuels"
 itechman63
Joined: 7/7/2005
Msg: 68
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History
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 3/12/2009 11:09:01 AM
Oil is a limited resource, this we do know for absolutely certain. Whether we have reached it or can find ways to slide the scale on when it occurs, it is an undeniable reality that it will be reached as Asia and other underdeveloped nations continue to modernize and consume. When is the best time to be concerned?
 Beaugrand®™©
Joined: 3/24/2008
Msg: 69
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History
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 3/12/2009 11:27:11 AM
I first read about "Hubbert's Peak" in 1968. So far the predictions are fairly accurate. Unless we discover a continent-wide pool of crude oil (Antarctica??) we're right at the point of worldwide peak oil production. Eventually, supply disruptions (and crude oil prices that make $140/barrel look cheap) will follow
UNLESS
we learn to use petroleum resources more efficiently. We can have those 2-1/2 ton SUVs (for a few more decades) if they can be made to get 50 mpg or better. We must use all possible technologies to meet our energy needs, including wind, wave, tidal, solar, biofuels and nuclear. "Business as usual" has changed forever, and ignoring that reality is nothing but destructive.
 incoherent
Joined: 1/4/2009
Msg: 70
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 3/12/2009 5:02:15 PM

I just needed to remember what a gas shortage was like.long lines at the gas station on alternate fueling days until I see that with my own eyes I will not believe there ever was a gas shortage what we did experience was the unregulated greed of wall street and the banking CEO's


Of course, you can believe what you see with your "own eyes", but I guess that means if it didn't happen to you, it didn't happen, right? So I guess the people in the Dakotas were just imagining it in June, 07 when they saw this:
http://www.ksfy.com/news/local/8027942.html

As people pulled up to a gas station is southeast Sioux Falls, they were greeted with signs they didn't expect. Stations out of gas because of a shortage.

Gas terminals are empty across South Dakota. From Sioux Falls to Yankton to Sioux City, they are all out. And tankers cannot find anywhere to fill up.

There's plenty of other reports about shortage for the last three summers at various places at "the ends of the pipelines in North America, and I already posted a link to many world wide shortages, but since it didn't happen to you, I guess it didn't happen at all, huh?

So according to you the president of the Petroleum Marketers Association had no idea of what he was talking about when he said there was no shortage

No, I believe I said he was lying. Do you think the he's above lying?
And now here's the most beautiful contradiction in the service of "it can't happen to me" I've ever seen.

If the chart was accessible I would still question the validity of the numbers

First of all, it's quite accessible, simply cut and paste it into your browser's address bar and it will down the excel spreadsheet. You can get Microsoft's free Excel viewer right here: http://www.microsoft.com/downloadS/details.aspx?familyid=1CD6ACF9-CE06-4E1C-8DCF-F33F669DBC3A&displaylang=en
or you can download the free Open Office suite from Sun here: http://download.openoffice.org/ Either will display it for you.
But here's the best part. You said "I would still question the validity of the numbers"... THAT'S THE SAME PLACE MASTERS CLAIMED TO HAVE GOTTEN THE NUMBER FROM. (sorry for shouting but I can't bold or italicize here). Look at the link EIA.DOE.GOV, the Energy Information Agency of the Department of Energy. So rather than look at the source he claimed to use, you think I'm lying and he's telling the truth, when looking at the source I supplied you would tell you the exact opposite.

You've obviously made up your mind it was the evil speculators and Wall Street CEOs that artificially raised the oil prices, and no amount of contradicting facts will change it. Talk about a closed mind. I provide the original source for you to confirm or deny your 60 Minutes' guy's claim, and you don't even look at it.

You think Obama is going to make things right and clean up the evil CEOs on Wall Street? Think again dude, he's on their side. He appointed the Commander-in-Chief of the New York banking interests to Treasury Secretary. Geitner was the President of the New York Fed for crap's sake. Obama is on the banker's team, not ours. Of course, that's off topic in this thread.

The oil companies are only doing a PR "investment" in alternatives because they know they won't work. BP is the leader in alternative fuels and I think they spend more advertising about it than they invested in it. Right now all alternatives make up about 1% of our electric supply. If that amount doubled every year, the alternatives wouldn't even cover the projected growth in electricity demand over the next 10 years. And that's not even counting transportation or food production, the other two big users of energy.

Hey, believe what you want to believe. It gives me a second opportunity in two days to quote Patrick Henry: "For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it. "
 JeffC13
Joined: 6/15/2007
Msg: 71
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 3/13/2009 12:32:38 AM
There really is no legitimate debate anymore regarding whether Peak Oil is real... Even the "oil is abiotic" denialists have all but disappeared. ... All that remains debatable is when... Many are starting to agree that it already happened, in 2005.

And as Matt Simmons declared 4-5 years ago (paraphrasing): when Ghawar goes, the planet will officially be in decline... So how is the biggest oil field in the world doing? Ghawar is essentially in the process of being transported to Hospice care.

Peak Oil largely explains why our recent leadership took it upon themselves to act like Wild West desperados the past 40 years.. Especially the last 8... Doing pretty much whatever they want, in the face of subpoenas, commissions and investigations. "The American way of life is not negotiable," big Dick said in 2001, two years after he pretty much admitted global supply decline (1999 in London).

The giants of the oil industry are not finding new fields, they're not investing in new infrastructure, nor investing in the upkeep of existing infrastructure. That should be a telltale sign right there. Hubbert was correct. Campbell was correct. And, sadly, Olduvai theory is likely coming to fruition.

As Michael Ruppert says: Energy IS the economy.... The economy IS energy. Period, end of story. The Peak Oil and Sustainability movements have always said collapse of the global financial system would long PRECEDE the last drop of gasoline at the pump. We'll never completely "run out" of oil. But demand sure is about to take a significant hit in the face of dwindling supply. And spoiled, gluttonous nations like our own will be the ones to fall the farthest. Very scary stuff.

 incoherent
Joined: 1/4/2009
Msg: 72
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 3/14/2009 5:58:54 PM

And, sadly, Olduvai theory is likely coming to fruition.


You said a mouthful Jeff. Most people don't know what Olduvai theory is, so for those interested here's an explanation of it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olduvai_theory

While Duncan's dates might be off somewhat, there's no denying that's where we're headed.
 Twill348
Joined: 12/20/2008
Msg: 73
view profile
History
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 3/16/2009 8:29:07 PM
"Fossil fuels cannot be made non-polluting. Fossil fuels represent carbon locked in the Earth; consuming them results in carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere. There is no "cleaning up" of carbon dioxide possible other than not burning them."

So what. Who gives a crap.

All those plants need fertillizer...made by OIL. And it just does not scale up.

On the other hand, nuclear works. It works very well. And, it also can produce all the oil we need, by sucking it back out of the air. Not that I give a crap about clean air (cleaner than we have now, anyways) but it would make the tree huggers smile. For awhile, until they think of something else to hector us about. They being so superior and all.
 JeffC13
Joined: 6/15/2007
Msg: 74
Peak Oil Production - Anyone else heard of it?
Posted: 5/13/2009 8:38:58 AM
meanwhile, here's the latest admission (from the horse's mouth) that Saudi Arabia is in decline... they'll meet again on May 28th to spin anew that "it's a demand problem."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBL_62gRgvrE&refer=home
Al-Naimi Says Saudi Oil Output Below Target; Stockpiles to Fall

By Christian Schmollinger and Shigeru Sato

April 25 (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest oil exporter, is producing less crude than its target and global stockpiles are likely to decline, according to Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi.

The country is producing less than 8 million barrels of crude a day, al-Naimi told reporters today in Tokyo, where he is attending a meeting of Asian energy ministers. Stockpiles “will come down eventually,” he said.

U.S. stockpiles have climbed to the highest since September 1990 even as Saudi Arabia leads the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ efforts to implement a 4.2 million barrel a day reduction in oil output from the group’s September levels. The country is producing 7.79 million barrels a day, less than its target of 8.1 million barrels a day.

OPEC decided against any further output constraints at a March 15 meeting in Vienna on concern that a fourth cut since September risked increasing energy costs amid the global recession. The group will convene again there on May 28.
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