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 rsx11s
Joined: 3/28/2007
Msg: 18
The Chinese move into AfricaPage 2 of 3    (1, 2, 3)

How are the Chinese going to protect their national intersts in a Nigerian oilfield halfway round the world without a navy?


By using their massive trade imbalance with the US as leverage?

Just a guess...
 colchar
Joined: 5/9/2006
Msg: 19
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 5/27/2007 11:40:37 AM
sobeit19 said:



If we haven't already... under the table.. we will be borrowing money from China very soon


China already controls more US funds than any other nation on earth. And if they were ever to call in all of their US debt the American economy would be bankrupt overnight.
 Love_on_fire
Joined: 12/31/2006
Msg: 20
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 5/27/2007 2:31:30 PM

OP, plus not just the future but also the present if we are comparing to the market. Asia knows how to spend, so the importance of the American market is getting smaller (getting less important does not mean it is getting irrelevant - but still interesting...).



I totally agree
 Bigger Guy
Joined: 10/3/2005
Msg: 21
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The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 5/27/2007 2:42:58 PM
China, as was stated previously, is far from a comunist nation now. They are a widely varied capitalist nation. Their main party government does allow some opposition, but they are capitalist through and through. Most western countries have enjoyed diplomatic and extensive trade relations with them for years / decades. they are no threat in that manner, and they are keen negotiaters when it comes to what is wanted and needed for the better of their nation.
I believe their economic might has been seen and noticed for a few decades already.
They have the lrrgest and most diverse military in the world, but they choose to follow a business course for their needs, to their credit.
Every Canadian bank has branches throughout Chuna and I believe Most UK and French banks are there too, and they have been for upwards of 40 years or more.
I still do not believe there is any need to worry about their moves into the African continent for oil. The economic spin offs will change the economies for the bettyer and it just makes sense for the chinese to deal there, because of the close proximity.
The rest of the west has the North sea oil, the central american and Gulf of mexico oil, the middle east (Can't figure that need though) and the Canadian oil, which is larger than all the others put together.
Our economic path should be more in the line of sustaining our supply for the short term and replacing it in the long term. We could, now, all be burning propane / natural gas / methane in our cars now, instead of gas. we could all be burning vegetable oil in our diesels and jet turbines. These resourses are virtually clean and renewable. The same refineries could produce it, with little change, on a mass scale. Methane is a by product of decomposition, and is found in any dump. When the process is sped up, it can be produced in great quantity, cheaply. The spin offs of this would be economic prosperity in our own countries and a much needed boost to the farming communities.
Any vehicle ever built with an internal combustion engine can burn the stuff, without much, if any modification..
This should be an eye opener to the possibilities, rather than to percieved future problems. I would rather see the economic growth of the African Continent co-incide with our renewed growth in the western nations and our trade partners in China. The way to peace is to co-operate and concentrate at the home front, while watching for our neighbours best interests, and helping them to achieve it.
 dorionland
Joined: 10/21/2006
Msg: 22
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 5/27/2007 3:46:58 PM
Oil is traded in USA$. China, Japan and Europe could dump the dollar and theoretically the dollar would collapse. But what would those countries use to buy oil? Prince Bandar doesn't take Yen, Yuan or Euros. Only Greenbacks. Saddam tried to switch his oil accounts to Euros and look what happened. Iraq bombed to shit, the Hussein clan wiped out, and Saddam himself hanged by the new guard, ready to do business in dollars.
 southernhighlander
Joined: 3/30/2007
Msg: 23
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The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 5/27/2007 4:10:09 PM
i have one thing to say i wouldn't trust china as far has i could throw them because they also have their army building up along the borders of indian and other countries to get their oil to.
 emancipate yourself
Joined: 12/3/2006
Msg: 24
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The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 5/28/2007 2:13:36 AM
Definately an intriguing subject.....hard to call.

I personally think that dorian brought up a point which I believe will change our economy dramatically much sooner than the depletion of all the worlds resources : the power of the US dollar aka dollar hegemony. We get a huge undeniable benefit from it, which will have to eventually come to an end.

The Euro. Once it stays around long enough to show that it's strong and here to stay, I'd say it would be advantageous for most countries to switch.

Sorta off subject, I just think this problem is closer on the horizon.
 *Jay
Joined: 1/26/2007
Msg: 25
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/3/2007 11:22:31 PM
Dorionland...you're living in a fantasy world if you think American domination will continue..this is just the beginning of the end....all good things must come to an end, just like any great empire of the past....China will prosper soon but they too will go down in favour of another emerging empire...but in our lifetimes, I think its best we all learn Mandarin
 *Jay
Joined: 1/26/2007
Msg: 26
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/4/2007 6:40:56 AM
Pollies lol, thats an interesting term...****in Pollies!

Imo, I wouldn't be too concerned about Australia, you guys, like us in Canada have other ways to survive for longer (although we may one day have to deal with American refugees flooding North of the border...they do, afterall, have 300 million people)
 slybandit
Joined: 7/10/2006
Msg: 27
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/4/2007 11:52:15 AM
colchar states:
"China already controls more US funds than any other nation on earth. And if they were ever to call in all of their US debt the American economy would be bankrupt overnight. "

colchar, you are perfectly right. But you only have half the equation.

If China calls in all their US debt, the American economy would bankrupt overnight.

And which economy would then immediately go bankrupt: well, among others...China's.

Because their trade with a bankrupt US would then disappear.
(Along with their trading relationship with WalMart, a corporation vastly larger in economic terms than most nations on Earth).

Both the people that matter in the Chinese government and at least some elements of the US government understand this perfectly well. Any such move on the part of the Chinese government would be suicidal stupidity. The Chinese pols may be ruthless and totally devoid of values many Westerners subscribe to (e.g. Tiananmen Square, remember that?), but they are not stupid or reckless.

The Chinese are locked into a cycle of trading manufactured goods (and increasingly, services) for US-dollar denominated debt they cannot rid themselves of. This does more to ensure the Republic of Taiwan's security than any military force the U.S. could ever field.

If you cannot sell something that's of no immediate benefit to you, because then it's value will collapse, what is it worth? Nothing, at least, not now. But the Chinese pols walked into this deal with their eyes open, for one good reason: it was the least-worst choice they had.

American consumers get products they can use right now. Chinese companies get US-government backed debt that maybe, someday, they will be able to trade to someone else for something they want or need. Like Nigerian oil, Russian oil, Canadian oil, Venezuelan oil, Iranian oil--- and every spare container of food they can possibly find anywhere to feed an aging population base of a billion-and-a-half and counting, when they have poisoned half their agricultural base with industrial effluent and pesticides, in a reckless bid to try to create jobs and wealth for their entire working-age population fast enough for their one-children-per-family policy to not create a nation of starving retirees by 2040.

Sorry about the run-on-sentence, but if you think seriously about it, the more you look at their situation, the more you realize that the Chinese are doing what they have to do, be it Africa or anywhere else. Their other choices lead to prospects that are uniformly grim in ways that wealthy and sheltered Westerners can barely begin to imagine.
 gtomustang
Joined: 6/16/2007
Msg: 28
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 9:37:28 AM
Getting the rights to it is one thing....getting new coup-governments to keep to the signed paperwork can be another, as we saw with Iraq. Even then, it still has to be shipped halfway across the world. America gets very little of its oil from the MidEast for this reason. We get most from Gulf of Mexico, Canada/Alaska, and our new friends in Venezuela. China would love to run a pipeline from Iran just to cut down on shipping costs. But the point is, raw materials will help China grow but not make a massive change, I think. A focus on efficiency would help more.

What will the people who brought you Tienemen (sic) Square do to Africa that America has not? Investment by a superpower is a double-edged sword. But,they may not ignore it like American administrations have. So, I think Africa may have as much to gain. What could be a bigger result is, when the al Quada 2.0 comes back to Somalia or Sudan (as it already has), then who's going to have a better chance of dealing with them, our allies or the Chinese? If the latter...what will they do with that leverage?
 petercentfla50
Joined: 5/11/2006
Msg: 29
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The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 9:46:30 AM
the chinese are the reason for much of the unrest in the world....they fuel our opponents with arms and ammo, and compete with us and india for oil, enabling the opec countries to tell us to f $%#^ off..........yes its a problem, always has been


you think stalin killed a lot of people? 20 million known kulaks that he starved to death or froze to death in siberia?


hitler? a mere amatuer killing 6 million in the camps....


try mao killing 70 million of his countrymen.....thats bloodthirsty!
 ipfreak
Joined: 6/20/2007
Msg: 30
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The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 1:13:50 PM

If China calls in all their US debt, the American economy would bankrupt overnight.


how is that? dump those bonds? who is going to buy them? no one!!!!! greenspan said long time ago on that.

chinese realize this now, too late ... that is why they start investing something else now, such as black stone, well within first week, it lost $240 millions...
 rory27
Joined: 2/14/2005
Msg: 31
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The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 1:46:01 PM
Good post from slybandit.

China can somewhat escape from an American dollar collapse if they can continue to grow their economy steadily, incrementally, trading with India and other nations who have/will slowly wean(ed) themselves from U.S. hegemony. Kuwait, and other Mid-East and Euro countries are already switching to minority other-U.S. currency trading.

China operates on a razor-thin labor sweetspot-- quantity of product as a priority over margin-- and they're susceptible to any change in a very plausible U.S. downturn in consumer madness. In this vein, the Chinese gov't put the brakes on speculative overdrive there last month: though anathema to the capitalist dream, it'll prove beneficial in tempering rampant consumerism somewhat, thereby helping to put the emphasis more on saving than debt and wealth display. That said, a third of every adult in China now owns an automobile, and they, like every other "developing" nation, wants their share of the oil-soaked bonanza.

The last point is why China and the U.S. will go head-to-head, either militarily (I doubt it would be in a land war) or through economic attrition. There's a scarily shrinking resource pie to go around-- the U.S. will continue to aggressively seek desperately needed oil from the Mid-East, and China and India will be their prime competitors for it.

As for Africa, they've already been priced out of the oil picture. Whatever resources they have (Nigeria as the focal point) will be increasingly taken by force (or stolen and/or decimated by terrorists and insurgents). That which is traded for $$ (from China) will also increasingly be appropriated for direct pork use by corrupt African state gov'ts.

China is in a very precarious position, and unlike many of the posters on this thread, I don't envy their future. Quite simply, they've arrived at a most unfortunate time to the world stage, too late to benefit with an increased standard of living as their flooded yuan won't be able to purchase the receding spurts from the century-long oil orgasm.
 ipfreak
Joined: 6/20/2007
Msg: 32
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The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 1:48:33 PM
few things about chinese in africa:

1) most of chinese i run into in different african countries are peasants, i would say less than 10% of them actually have good education. for those peasants, forget about english, they even have problems with sophisticated chinese. so communication between locals and chinese are virtual non exist.
2) very different life styles. africans are really lay back and no hurry for anything and chinese are always busy on something. especially now privatre firms there, all of projects have to be done on time, otherwise, penalty will be charged, usually based on days. that is why chinese firms there usually hire chinese hard labor force from china; mixing rate like 70% chinese and 30% locals. those firms usually work 7x24 with different shifts and workers usually live on the camp. that is big fuss from media here.
3) everywhere i went, i see chinese firms were building roads, building and reserves, and other construction projects. positive side is they get projects done fast and well, down side is a lot of locals don't like the way of how chinese works. here was the best conversation i had with a security guard:

q: why don't you like chinese?
a: well, we africans, have human rights, we work 8 hours and we need beers, parties and have fun. they [chinese] make us working like chinese.



culture conflicts... here we start
 bubble_boy
Joined: 4/23/2007
Msg: 33
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 2:09:51 PM
Personnally, I can't wait for the end of the Oil era. It might just be the best thing to ever happen.


When people think "oil" they tend to think gasoline. Our economy is far more dependent on oil based polymers and secondary uses of raw oil then just for what goes in a cars tank. When oil runs out the impact will be SEVERE.

I think you should study Chinese merchants and their experiences in Indo China before you start doubting Chinas ability to be just as good at foriegn capitalism as any American. Plus as the other poster mentioned -- China has no morality. People are nothing more then means to an end.

With Africa being depopulated by AIDS it will become the next big resource ownerships battlefield. How long do you think it will take for large scale asian and india migration to Africa to start. I would bet soon. It have been going on for years. The Chinese have been stealing what they want for decades (including economic, telecom, pharmaceutical, and scientific knowledge).

China is already flexing it econmic muscle by buying up resource based industries in Canada that no Canadian venture capital companies will support. The Chinese are not interested in profit as much as long-term need that control of these companies will help. This includes resource mining, food production, and fishing resources. Most of the raw material is being scooped up and shipped to China for processing for a few cents a day.

The **stards already fished out the South China sea and literally killed 95% of the sealife there. Now they are buying fish plants in Canada to do the same thing right under our noses -- and the Canadians are too stupid and ignorant to understand the ramifications of it. Given Canada's foolish immigration policies -- it will not take long before Chinese peasants are imported in mass to work in Chinese owned companies in Canada as super cheap labor. Its already started to some extend in the fishing industry. In ten years it will be wide spread. By then it will be too late.

If you dont think the Iraq invasion was a warning to China (in regards to their dealings with Iran) then you are really not grasping the world geopolitical view very well.

Soon to be processed in China fish -->
 ipfreak
Joined: 6/20/2007
Msg: 34
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The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 2:20:47 PM
for bubble boy:

what you just put out is nothing but bubbles....

zambia, the world biggest copper exporter. british and american firms control 96% of its copper mines, here is the news, used to control almost 100%. they lost some due to the new laws.

chinese firms don't even have 2% of copper businesses there!!!
 bubble_boy
Joined: 4/23/2007
Msg: 35
The Chinese move into Africa (and Canada)
Posted: 7/5/2007 2:31:23 PM
ipfreak

You should do more homework then. If you think that China is not using its economic muscle to carry out a form of warfare on the west then you are not well informed. I have seen first hand what they are doing in Canada. They are being sneaky about it -- but their moves to damage fishing stocks on the east coast of Canada is already underway.

Last Smart unpolluted fish in the ocean -->
 ipfreak
Joined: 6/20/2007
Msg: 36
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The Chinese move into Africa (and Canada)
Posted: 7/5/2007 2:48:32 PM

You should do more homework then. If you think that China is not using its economic muscle to carry out a form of warfare on the west then you are not well informed. I have seen first hand what they are doing in Canada. They are being sneaky about it -- but their moves to damage fishing stocks on the east coast of Canada is already underway.


economic warfare? dude, that is big word.

environmentalism is also a part culture and economic development. in terms of that, chinese, from the government to individuals, are way behind the developed counties and their people, in general.
 prof48
Joined: 3/17/2005
Msg: 37
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 6:05:06 PM
Hmm. Not just into Africa!! Guess who is fervently working on trade deals with the European Union. Guess who is increasingly funding the US debt. China is increasingly filling the role its financial status has given it. It is the US of 100 years ago, with many of the same problems.
 ferdg
Joined: 8/19/2005
Msg: 38
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 6:34:27 PM
This was coming for a long time now and this is nothing new like its a huge surprise. Economists and financial wizards predicted Chinas new economy a long time ago which lead to a book call China Inc. by Ted C. Fishman. The Economists and financial wizards predict by 2025 every chinaman will own a car, chinas 2nd language is English and is spoken more than the population of the US.



China already controls more US funds than any other nation on earth. And if they were ever to call in all of their US debt the American economy would be bankrupt over night


This paraphrase is in the book, it also mentioned that if China were withdraw it funds from the United States, our interests rates increase. I would not doubt this is why the US Congress give priority on it's goods and services that China sells.


Also in India, I read that Catapilla are building a factory to build and manufacture their monster trucks. In turn to sell them to India enable India to build highways and other infrastructures.
 ipfreak
Joined: 6/20/2007
Msg: 39
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The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 7:37:55 PM

This paraphrase is in the book, it also mentioned that if China were withdraw it funds from the United States, our interests rates increase. I would not doubt this is why the US Congress give priority on it's goods and services that China sells.


how could china do that? it has to sell the bonds they have to some buyers, but to whom? greenspan said that few years ago. no one on earth have that buying power in any perceivable future. maybe india, but not another 20 years.

basically, china is kinda stuck with those bonds.
 lexmarx
Joined: 5/22/2007
Msg: 40
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The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 8:30:37 PM
Where were y'all when the Chinese locked up all the canadian oil?
 lexmarx
Joined: 5/22/2007
Msg: 41
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The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 8:33:09 PM
Look again China has the canadian leases all locked up as of 2006
 Branes
Joined: 7/27/2006
Msg: 42
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The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 8:56:09 PM
We're doing with China what we did with Japan in the 30's. Giving them the rope to hang us with. We've help build them into an economic powerhouse while our economy sags, by importing cheap, poorly made products with almost no quality control. I've bought more stuff made in China that fell apart shortly after I bought it or didn't work at all and had to be returned. I disgusts me to see how we are fueling the economy of the last major Communist country in the world. I guess we didn't learn our lesson with Japan.
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