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 nipoleon
Joined: 12/27/2005
Msg: 9
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The Chinese move into AfricaPage 2 of 3    (1, 2, 3)
There is also one other advantage the Chinese have over us.

They don't care !

They don't care about human rights. They don't care about property rights. They don't care about patent laws. They don't care about copyright laws. They have the advantage of not caring about these " petty " things. They do what they think they need to do and don't care how anyone else feels about it. They make the deals they think they need to make. They do what they think is to their advantage to do.

That does not mean that I think China is a better place to live.
But there may come a day when a lot of people will think differently.

There is a bad dream I have about America.

One day you will earn $100,000 a year, but you will live in a tin shack because that's all you can afford. You will bounce your grandchildren on your knee, because they live with you. And, you will tell them stories about how you remember what a country America used to be.
 Sombient
Joined: 9/29/2006
Msg: 10
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 11/5/2006 10:56:40 AM
Semi-precious and doping metals/minerals are already in short supply. Why do you think we are so interested in Pakistan, Turkey, Iraq and Afghanistan? Mineral reserves.

The agrarian driven economies are bankrupting themselves by depleting groundwater supplies and totally diverting/using surface water supplies (a number of rivers and lakes have virtually disappeared in their lower reaches, because of irrigation diversions upstream). India and China are perfect examples of this problem. Other countries have already bankrupted groundwater supply and contaminated (salts) soils, creating vast wastelands of nonfarmable, erodible soils. Lovely.

The kicker. Woe betide those who suggest that the end of the oil era would be "a good thing".

It would be very, very bad indeed.

Let me make my point. Sit back from your computer, take a look around you.

Everything, and I mean every single item in view, including your clothing...all bear materials and the touch of solvents, dyes and pigments, adhesives and surface treatments manufactured from petrochemical stocks.

When the last of the easily refined stocks are gone, life changes..abruptly. The cost of refining the remaining gas-heavy, metal and sulfur contaminated stocks will send base chemical prices soaring.

The cost of living will shift so severely, that you would be hard pressed to recognize life a mere decade after the primary oil reserves are depleted (~ 15 yrs) and remaining subsurface supply is used for the last of the *cheap* supply man-made compounds that drive manufacturing of all goods and consumables is gone.

Be afraid. Be very afraid for the end of cheap petrochemical stocks.

Its not about energy..its about chemicals and materials manufactured from oil.

Extraterrestrial mining of anything will be beyond profitability. Understand this fact. Its a pie in the sky bid to control a resource that cannot be gained efficiently or cost effectively. Its razzle-dazzle science policy twaddle meant to drive growth in yet another pseudo-market, in a push to move the US into some sort of future dominance in world trade.

Solar, wind, and geothermal energy are coming on line to supplement energy demand. But there is a key problem: the aged transmission network is ill-equipped to take on traffic service (surely you understand that power flows one way on grids, and major power network paths are determined by *historical* point sources of energy (coalfired plants, hydropower, nuclear power). The cost in infrastructure upgrade in order to bring on secondary power supply sources is huge. The Federal power grid community knows this (I worked for them, call this an insider viewpoint). It also knows that load *timing and load shaping of secondary sources like solar and wind is another MAJOR ASS technical problem that needs to resolved.

We still can't efficiently store power. Thats the bugaboo of switching to alternative energy supply for the vast majority of the power grid system in the US and Canada.

None of the solutions are politically appetizing. We are too inured in "just-in-time" solutions to problems, too arrogant: our leaders presume that we scientists and engineers can easily reach into the magic bag of technological tricks and fix these looming shortages.

hahahahaha.
 Intercooler
Joined: 2/18/2006
Msg: 11
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The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 11/5/2006 3:31:42 PM
^^^^^ An absolutely fascinating (albeit scary) post. I think this is a reality no one dares to mention or talk about. Yet, I can easily see it coming to fruition at the current rates or use, non-reuse, lack of recycling, and lack of major funding for alternative resource use.
 whothehellknows
Joined: 7/23/2006
Msg: 12
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 5/26/2007 9:11:59 PM

There is also one very important ideological point to consider. What happens if a Communist nation, a formerly "insignificant and poor" one, suddenly successfully industrializes - while also tremendously expanding the wealth of it's citizens ?


China is NOT a communist country, no matter what they call themselves. They are some of the biggest capitalists on the planet, with a totalitarian form of government. Not that I like that form of government, but in a historiacl sense it has shown much more staying power than democracies.

Five hundred years of European economic and military dominance is eroding in our lifetime. Instead of just taking as we have in the past, now we will have to negotiate and compete for resources.
 rsx11s
Joined: 3/28/2007
Msg: 13
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 5/26/2007 10:08:46 PM
One point to consider - while wars are fought for oil, you can't have wars without oil. It fuels everything.
 IndKyPerson
Joined: 4/14/2007
Msg: 14
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History
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 5/27/2007 7:11:55 AM
China is NOT a communist country, no matter what they call themselves. They are some of the biggest capitalists on the planet, with a totalitarian form of government.

Wouldn't argue that, or the 3 events pointed out by MG that influence their tone. The US has evolved into and towards a totalitarian form of government for some time now, maybe for the staying power.
IMHO
They will end up with the same issues the Soviets did, Saddam did, and we are with the IslamoFascists . The IslamoFascists are not compatible with theirs, ours, or any other form of government other than their own. The IslamoFascists are pretty savvy too, they know how to influence, fight, and then control weakly governed countries- through violence and terror, and how to influence, fight and then control in countries governed by laws and human rights- through the courts, voting population and PC crap.
When China has to really deal with them - if they haven't to some degree already- they with just crush and chase them back under the rocks they came from. It will end up with China vs. [insert country here] and the rest of the remaining democracies of the world.


One point to consider - while wars are fought for oil, you can't have wars without oil. It fuels everything.


I wonder too, when oil is replaced as The fuel, what is the new stuff going to cost? Who is going to control the mfg/dist and the equipment built to utilize it?

I guess I'm just looking at the whole thing as "Everything old is new again".
Anybody ever consider,,,, maybe we really are in the Matrix....... doodoodoodoodoo... doodoodoodoodoo... doodoodoodoodoo...
 dorionland
Joined: 10/21/2006
Msg: 15
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 5/27/2007 8:52:38 AM
China is on the brink of disaster. Their coal mines are collapsing every day because they can't meet their energy needs. They have more industrial accidents and executions in a day than most countries have in a year. Their rivers are giant sewers. Revolts in the country side are occuring daily because China can't provide its people with clean running water and electricity.

The United States of America can decimate any country it wants. Prop up any dictator it likes. The President goes on television and says "we're bombing so and so for not doing what we want them to do". Russia, France and China voice their protests at the UNSC, and then stand aside as America sends a fleet to punish the evildoers.

How are the Chinese going to protect their national intersts in a Nigerian oilfield halfway round the world without a navy? Bush and Cheney just took over the Middle East and Central Asia and with it control of the world economy?

The Chinese don't have a navy. They're not a superpower. If they were even a regional power, they'd have a pipeline going to Central Asia. But they don't. Canadians are there fighting the Taliban. And the Chinese can't even take back Taiwan. They're a branch plant economy. Having 1.2 billion mouths to feed means nothing. There would be two billion of them if they didn't flush half their kids down the toilet at birth. The world has over 6 billion people and most of them mean squat.

To put this in historical perspective, terrorists are the new communists. Insurgencies armed with homemade bombs have replaced the Soviet Union as public enemy #1. A country which once led the United States in science, technology, and oil and mineral production and had the capacity of destroying the United States a hundred times over was beaten hands down, and replaced by a fictional threat.

China's not even a contender. In the long run they will self-destruct trying to keep up. The rest of the planet will starve when we turn their food into ethanol and bio-diesel, or flood them with global warming, or die of AIDS, or let them kill one another with weapons we don't need anymore. And pollution and energy shortages will go away when they all die.

It's game theory. If you want to understand how it works just look at New Orleans. If you're black and don't own a car you drown. If you're white, you gas up your SUV and move to higher ground till it's over. New Orleans is majority white now. What was once a vibrant African-American community is gone. Cheap real estate for the Gulf Coast oil industries. The same will happen every where else. Poor brown people will drown, starve or die of war and disease. And civilization will carry on without them.
 rsx11s
Joined: 3/28/2007
Msg: 16
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 5/27/2007 9:18:40 AM

How are the Chinese going to protect their national intersts in a Nigerian oilfield halfway round the world without a navy?


By using their massive trade imbalance with the US as leverage?

Just a guess...
 colchar
Joined: 5/9/2006
Msg: 17
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 5/27/2007 11:40:37 AM
sobeit19 said:



If we haven't already... under the table.. we will be borrowing money from China very soon


China already controls more US funds than any other nation on earth. And if they were ever to call in all of their US debt the American economy would be bankrupt overnight.
 Love_on_fire
Joined: 12/31/2006
Msg: 18
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 5/27/2007 2:31:30 PM

OP, plus not just the future but also the present if we are comparing to the market. Asia knows how to spend, so the importance of the American market is getting smaller (getting less important does not mean it is getting irrelevant - but still interesting...).



I totally agree
 Bigger Guy
Joined: 10/3/2005
Msg: 19
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History
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 5/27/2007 2:42:58 PM
China, as was stated previously, is far from a comunist nation now. They are a widely varied capitalist nation. Their main party government does allow some opposition, but they are capitalist through and through. Most western countries have enjoyed diplomatic and extensive trade relations with them for years / decades. they are no threat in that manner, and they are keen negotiaters when it comes to what is wanted and needed for the better of their nation.
I believe their economic might has been seen and noticed for a few decades already.
They have the lrrgest and most diverse military in the world, but they choose to follow a business course for their needs, to their credit.
Every Canadian bank has branches throughout Chuna and I believe Most UK and French banks are there too, and they have been for upwards of 40 years or more.
I still do not believe there is any need to worry about their moves into the African continent for oil. The economic spin offs will change the economies for the bettyer and it just makes sense for the chinese to deal there, because of the close proximity.
The rest of the west has the North sea oil, the central american and Gulf of mexico oil, the middle east (Can't figure that need though) and the Canadian oil, which is larger than all the others put together.
Our economic path should be more in the line of sustaining our supply for the short term and replacing it in the long term. We could, now, all be burning propane / natural gas / methane in our cars now, instead of gas. we could all be burning vegetable oil in our diesels and jet turbines. These resourses are virtually clean and renewable. The same refineries could produce it, with little change, on a mass scale. Methane is a by product of decomposition, and is found in any dump. When the process is sped up, it can be produced in great quantity, cheaply. The spin offs of this would be economic prosperity in our own countries and a much needed boost to the farming communities.
Any vehicle ever built with an internal combustion engine can burn the stuff, without much, if any modification..
This should be an eye opener to the possibilities, rather than to percieved future problems. I would rather see the economic growth of the African Continent co-incide with our renewed growth in the western nations and our trade partners in China. The way to peace is to co-operate and concentrate at the home front, while watching for our neighbours best interests, and helping them to achieve it.
 dorionland
Joined: 10/21/2006
Msg: 20
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 5/27/2007 3:46:58 PM
Oil is traded in USA$. China, Japan and Europe could dump the dollar and theoretically the dollar would collapse. But what would those countries use to buy oil? Prince Bandar doesn't take Yen, Yuan or Euros. Only Greenbacks. Saddam tried to switch his oil accounts to Euros and look what happened. Iraq bombed to shit, the Hussein clan wiped out, and Saddam himself hanged by the new guard, ready to do business in dollars.
 southernhighlander
Joined: 3/30/2007
Msg: 21
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The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 5/27/2007 4:10:09 PM
i have one thing to say i wouldn't trust china as far has i could throw them because they also have their army building up along the borders of indian and other countries to get their oil to.
 *Jay
Joined: 1/26/2007
Msg: 22
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/3/2007 11:22:31 PM
Dorionland...you're living in a fantasy world if you think American domination will continue..this is just the beginning of the end....all good things must come to an end, just like any great empire of the past....China will prosper soon but they too will go down in favour of another emerging empire...but in our lifetimes, I think its best we all learn Mandarin
 *Jay
Joined: 1/26/2007
Msg: 23
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/4/2007 6:40:56 AM
Pollies lol, thats an interesting term...****in Pollies!

Imo, I wouldn't be too concerned about Australia, you guys, like us in Canada have other ways to survive for longer (although we may one day have to deal with American refugees flooding North of the border...they do, afterall, have 300 million people)
 slybandit
Joined: 7/10/2006
Msg: 24
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/4/2007 11:52:15 AM
colchar states:
"China already controls more US funds than any other nation on earth. And if they were ever to call in all of their US debt the American economy would be bankrupt overnight. "

colchar, you are perfectly right. But you only have half the equation.

If China calls in all their US debt, the American economy would bankrupt overnight.

And which economy would then immediately go bankrupt: well, among others...China's.

Because their trade with a bankrupt US would then disappear.
(Along with their trading relationship with WalMart, a corporation vastly larger in economic terms than most nations on Earth).

Both the people that matter in the Chinese government and at least some elements of the US government understand this perfectly well. Any such move on the part of the Chinese government would be suicidal stupidity. The Chinese pols may be ruthless and totally devoid of values many Westerners subscribe to (e.g. Tiananmen Square, remember that?), but they are not stupid or reckless.

The Chinese are locked into a cycle of trading manufactured goods (and increasingly, services) for US-dollar denominated debt they cannot rid themselves of. This does more to ensure the Republic of Taiwan's security than any military force the U.S. could ever field.

If you cannot sell something that's of no immediate benefit to you, because then it's value will collapse, what is it worth? Nothing, at least, not now. But the Chinese pols walked into this deal with their eyes open, for one good reason: it was the least-worst choice they had.

American consumers get products they can use right now. Chinese companies get US-government backed debt that maybe, someday, they will be able to trade to someone else for something they want or need. Like Nigerian oil, Russian oil, Canadian oil, Venezuelan oil, Iranian oil--- and every spare container of food they can possibly find anywhere to feed an aging population base of a billion-and-a-half and counting, when they have poisoned half their agricultural base with industrial effluent and pesticides, in a reckless bid to try to create jobs and wealth for their entire working-age population fast enough for their one-children-per-family policy to not create a nation of starving retirees by 2040.

Sorry about the run-on-sentence, but if you think seriously about it, the more you look at their situation, the more you realize that the Chinese are doing what they have to do, be it Africa or anywhere else. Their other choices lead to prospects that are uniformly grim in ways that wealthy and sheltered Westerners can barely begin to imagine.
 gtomustang
Joined: 6/16/2007
Msg: 25
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 9:37:28 AM
Getting the rights to it is one thing....getting new coup-governments to keep to the signed paperwork can be another, as we saw with Iraq. Even then, it still has to be shipped halfway across the world. America gets very little of its oil from the MidEast for this reason. We get most from Gulf of Mexico, Canada/Alaska, and our new friends in Venezuela. China would love to run a pipeline from Iran just to cut down on shipping costs. But the point is, raw materials will help China grow but not make a massive change, I think. A focus on efficiency would help more.

What will the people who brought you Tienemen (sic) Square do to Africa that America has not? Investment by a superpower is a double-edged sword. But,they may not ignore it like American administrations have. So, I think Africa may have as much to gain. What could be a bigger result is, when the al Quada 2.0 comes back to Somalia or Sudan (as it already has), then who's going to have a better chance of dealing with them, our allies or the Chinese? If the latter...what will they do with that leverage?
 rory27
Joined: 2/14/2005
Msg: 26
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History
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 1:46:01 PM
Good post from slybandit.

China can somewhat escape from an American dollar collapse if they can continue to grow their economy steadily, incrementally, trading with India and other nations who have/will slowly wean(ed) themselves from U.S. hegemony. Kuwait, and other Mid-East and Euro countries are already switching to minority other-U.S. currency trading.

China operates on a razor-thin labor sweetspot-- quantity of product as a priority over margin-- and they're susceptible to any change in a very plausible U.S. downturn in consumer madness. In this vein, the Chinese gov't put the brakes on speculative overdrive there last month: though anathema to the capitalist dream, it'll prove beneficial in tempering rampant consumerism somewhat, thereby helping to put the emphasis more on saving than debt and wealth display. That said, a third of every adult in China now owns an automobile, and they, like every other "developing" nation, wants their share of the oil-soaked bonanza.

The last point is why China and the U.S. will go head-to-head, either militarily (I doubt it would be in a land war) or through economic attrition. There's a scarily shrinking resource pie to go around-- the U.S. will continue to aggressively seek desperately needed oil from the Mid-East, and China and India will be their prime competitors for it.

As for Africa, they've already been priced out of the oil picture. Whatever resources they have (Nigeria as the focal point) will be increasingly taken by force (or stolen and/or decimated by terrorists and insurgents). That which is traded for $$ (from China) will also increasingly be appropriated for direct pork use by corrupt African state gov'ts.

China is in a very precarious position, and unlike many of the posters on this thread, I don't envy their future. Quite simply, they've arrived at a most unfortunate time to the world stage, too late to benefit with an increased standard of living as their flooded yuan won't be able to purchase the receding spurts from the century-long oil orgasm.
 bubble_boy
Joined: 4/23/2007
Msg: 27
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 2:09:51 PM
Personnally, I can't wait for the end of the Oil era. It might just be the best thing to ever happen.


When people think "oil" they tend to think gasoline. Our economy is far more dependent on oil based polymers and secondary uses of raw oil then just for what goes in a cars tank. When oil runs out the impact will be SEVERE.

I think you should study Chinese merchants and their experiences in Indo China before you start doubting Chinas ability to be just as good at foriegn capitalism as any American. Plus as the other poster mentioned -- China has no morality. People are nothing more then means to an end.

With Africa being depopulated by AIDS it will become the next big resource ownerships battlefield. How long do you think it will take for large scale asian and india migration to Africa to start. I would bet soon. It have been going on for years. The Chinese have been stealing what they want for decades (including economic, telecom, pharmaceutical, and scientific knowledge).

China is already flexing it econmic muscle by buying up resource based industries in Canada that no Canadian venture capital companies will support. The Chinese are not interested in profit as much as long-term need that control of these companies will help. This includes resource mining, food production, and fishing resources. Most of the raw material is being scooped up and shipped to China for processing for a few cents a day.

The **stards already fished out the South China sea and literally killed 95% of the sealife there. Now they are buying fish plants in Canada to do the same thing right under our noses -- and the Canadians are too stupid and ignorant to understand the ramifications of it. Given Canada's foolish immigration policies -- it will not take long before Chinese peasants are imported in mass to work in Chinese owned companies in Canada as super cheap labor. Its already started to some extend in the fishing industry. In ten years it will be wide spread. By then it will be too late.

If you dont think the Iraq invasion was a warning to China (in regards to their dealings with Iran) then you are really not grasping the world geopolitical view very well.

Soon to be processed in China fish -->
 bubble_boy
Joined: 4/23/2007
Msg: 28
The Chinese move into Africa (and Canada)
Posted: 7/5/2007 2:31:23 PM
ipfreak

You should do more homework then. If you think that China is not using its economic muscle to carry out a form of warfare on the west then you are not well informed. I have seen first hand what they are doing in Canada. They are being sneaky about it -- but their moves to damage fishing stocks on the east coast of Canada is already underway.

Last Smart unpolluted fish in the ocean -->
 prof48
Joined: 3/17/2005
Msg: 29
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 6:05:06 PM
Hmm. Not just into Africa!! Guess who is fervently working on trade deals with the European Union. Guess who is increasingly funding the US debt. China is increasingly filling the role its financial status has given it. It is the US of 100 years ago, with many of the same problems.
 ferdg
Joined: 8/19/2005
Msg: 30
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 6:34:27 PM
This was coming for a long time now and this is nothing new like its a huge surprise. Economists and financial wizards predicted Chinas new economy a long time ago which lead to a book call China Inc. by Ted C. Fishman. The Economists and financial wizards predict by 2025 every chinaman will own a car, chinas 2nd language is English and is spoken more than the population of the US.



China already controls more US funds than any other nation on earth. And if they were ever to call in all of their US debt the American economy would be bankrupt over night


This paraphrase is in the book, it also mentioned that if China were withdraw it funds from the United States, our interests rates increase. I would not doubt this is why the US Congress give priority on it's goods and services that China sells.


Also in India, I read that Catapilla are building a factory to build and manufacture their monster trucks. In turn to sell them to India enable India to build highways and other infrastructures.
 lexmarx
Joined: 5/22/2007
Msg: 31
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History
The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 8:30:37 PM
Where were y'all when the Chinese locked up all the canadian oil?
 lexmarx
Joined: 5/22/2007
Msg: 32
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The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 8:33:09 PM
Look again China has the canadian leases all locked up as of 2006
 Branes
Joined: 7/27/2006
Msg: 33
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The Chinese move into Africa
Posted: 7/5/2007 8:56:09 PM
We're doing with China what we did with Japan in the 30's. Giving them the rope to hang us with. We've help build them into an economic powerhouse while our economy sags, by importing cheap, poorly made products with almost no quality control. I've bought more stuff made in China that fell apart shortly after I bought it or didn't work at all and had to be returned. I disgusts me to see how we are fueling the economy of the last major Communist country in the world. I guess we didn't learn our lesson with Japan.
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