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Show ALL Forums  > California  > The California RE market [LOCKED UNDER REVIEW]      Home login  
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 spitfire6844
Joined: 6/30/2007
Msg: 76
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The California RE marketPage 4 of 18    (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18)

If you lived in Japan, or Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, or any well-to-do country right now where the currency is soaring, what would possibly be the safest investment you could make?


Agreed. There was a surge of foreign investment in U.S. properties in the late nineties, too, especially by the Japanese. We'll see more of that now, and probably for the foreseeable future.
 StrangerInTheHouse
Joined: 2/9/2008
Msg: 77
The California RE market
Posted: 3/10/2008 9:22:08 AM


Agreed. There was a surge of foreign investment in U.S. properties in the late nineties, too, especially by the Japanese.

Late 80's, you mean? Some Japanese corporation bought Rockefeller Center for a ridiculous price, and sold it back after the Japanese RE crash for maybe 20 cents on the dollar. That could happen again. Or not.

ah... but RC is not in California

Big diff....
 MermaidSari
Joined: 2/4/2007
Msg: 78
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The California RE market
Posted: 3/10/2008 10:54:35 PM
SmileatJen...it's a good time to be taking note here.


There are 10 kinds of people: those who understand binary arithmetic, and those who don't.


LOL...somehow I'm still seeing a factor of two!
 PolarBearKing
Joined: 4/16/2007
Msg: 79
The California RE market
Posted: 3/12/2008 10:26:12 AM
The Fed helped out some yesterday with their Rescue Package ... $200 billion to prop up lenders.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080311/fed_credit_crisis.html?.v=6

This is scary. All it is going to do is make Wall Street richer and the dollar weaker while prolonging the inevitable recession. It's kind of like climb up the water tower when you're drunk. The higher you go, the farther you have to fall. I certainly hope that everyone has their financial ducks in order. Things are gonna be bad.

All of a sudden s w m's predictions of doom and gloom don't sound so far fetched.
 PolarBearKing
Joined: 4/16/2007
Msg: 80
The California RE market
Posted: 3/12/2008 10:43:30 AM
I know what you mean. It is micro thinking in a macro world.

Having said that, I used to think that Greenspan was an idiot for artificially propping up the economy by lowering interest rates. Now I think he is a genius, because in reality he only had to keep the economy rolling along until he retired. It now appears Bernanke is doing the same thing. It's not his fault, as soon as the economy collapses (and it will) he will be fired. Bush only cares that the economy stays in the black until the election. It looks like it is gonna be the same as the post Reagan era. I wouldn't want to be the Prez in the next term. It will be fugly.
 MermaidSari
Joined: 2/4/2007
Msg: 81
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The California RE market
Posted: 3/18/2008 11:06:25 AM
Thanks PolarbearKing and Eeek...


Which mostly annoys me to no end. Why should those of us that didn't make stupid real estate investments be bailing out those that did?


Pres. Bush shares the same sentiments (as do I). The government is in a difficult situation. Foreign investors are loosing (or have lost :-p) confidence in U.S. paper notes and money. The value of the dollar is shrinking. So economists are suggesting this 'bail-out' is for 'all' of us, in that it will reduce foreclosures on the market and help to restore confidence in the U.S. economy overall.

I disagree with 'parental' government psychology though...and I don't want to bail out others as a taxpayer. Parental governmism [a side kick of socialist thinking] treats all the populous as if we are equal. In the end, this pentalizes those of us who are responsible and wise stewards with our hard earned finances and rewards those who are lazy or unwise with their finances (we are seeing proposals for RE welfare essentially).

If the feds would 'raise' interest rates instead of lowering them [like ex-fed/chair Greenspan has been stating] it would restore confidence (everytime we lower AFR [applicable federal rates]-- we are making a statement). As well if we 'allow' the RE market to bottom out and make more loans assessible to people -- that is when buyers will return to the market and a balance could be restored. Unfortunately, I don't see this happening with all the parental thinking folks in the house and senate.

Historically government parentalism doesn't work [just like the whopping 600 everyone will be getting who files under 75k. It is those who make above 75k that stimulate the economy and can 'actually' afford RE. It is those same folks that are ticked off that we are paying for everyone else's tiny fortune in the recent stimulant package [Bush tried to not cap the income limit, but the house and senate wouldn't approve such a fair bill--despite the liberal goal of 'equalizing' all Americans (lessening the income gap between the wealthy and the poor)].

Americanrover -- I don't think there is much a gloom day scare overall in the general public [not to state we shouldn't take notes]. The RE market as well as other markets in the U.S. are struggling now...as we watch the price of gold soar upward past 1000.00/ounce we also watch our dollar become less valuable [we 'are' in a recession--not 'waiting for it'...prices are rising [oil/produce are necessities versus luxury items for the working population] while our dollar is failing...add a greater unemployment rate and the U.S. will be in depression]. Most foreign lenders have held investments in 'mortgage' based loans to our government.

So RE is mixed in the entire overall U.S. economic market and part of the larger problem with the lack of investor confidence in the U.S.

Here's my suggestion: Can we get a new government (whoops! This said by a government worker. :-p).
 MermaidSari
Joined: 2/4/2007
Msg: 82
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The California RE market
Posted: 3/18/2008 11:12:19 AM
^I just wanted to add...none of the new candidates qualify for the 'real' change this government needs [the liberal (parentalist) party will add to economic woes and the conservatives are running a liberal. :-p].
 StrangerInTheHouse
Joined: 2/9/2008
Msg: 83
The California RE market
Posted: 3/18/2008 6:24:01 PM
Sariangel: I know this is not exactly on topic, but neither was your reference to liberalism.

Most Americans have no idea what things were like before the twentieth century, before what you call "liberalism" came into being.

Fire departments were private enterprises. They would purposely set fires in order to break into people's houses and steal their property.

Law enforcement was private enterprise. Sherriffs and companies like Pinkerton's were many times extorting money from private citizens as protection. Many times this was the case with cattlemen in the old west. They would also shoot down union organizers. Pinkerton's agents many times were no better than murderers working under the cloak of legal authority because of their company affiliation: nothing else.
Mayors of cities and towns were many times appointed by the company that ran that town. Common citizens had no say in how the law was enforced.

yeah... we have our problems now... thank God for "socialism" as we know it... the election by the public of law enforcement officers, publicly run fire departments, police and other public services.

We've got corruption, but it's one helluva lot less than when the whole thing was "free enterprise".

In the 1920's people loved outlaws like Al Capone and Bonnie and Clyde, because they knew the system was so screwed up, so rigged, and people were so alienated they wanted nothing better than to see it fall.
 MermaidSari
Joined: 2/4/2007
Msg: 84
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The California RE market
Posted: 3/30/2008 2:01:50 PM
^no problem. I have to disagree with you.

Today's liberal is yesterday's corruption and conservative. Think history and how the shift between 'liberal' thought came about. Kennedy for example -- was he a conservative or liberal [it was around this era when the shift occurred].

Sick people in fire depts. still start fires, sick police officers still exist.

It has little to do with government or politics, but the social ills of a few that will exist no matter what party has power. Much as the nepitism in gov. that allegedly was cleared up...same corruption/different modes and methods.

Btw--I wasn't meaning to discuss politics...it came up though as the gov. is thinking to reward those who made uwise mortgage decisions through bail outs...via taxpayers who did not fall into foreclosure. So you think this is fair?
 StrangerInTheHouse
Joined: 2/9/2008
Msg: 85
The California RE market
Posted: 3/30/2008 4:05:02 PM
I didn't mean to discuss politics either, but as one who defines himself as "liberal" on many issues, I don't like it when people slander my politics. I do feel obliged to defend my position IN THAT CASE.

No. There's a big difference between when all the public agencies were run by private interests and now. Corruption then was the status quo. Now, it's more of an exception and many people have been prosecuted for it. In the days before fire and police and other services were privately run, there was no such thing.

If you know different, show me, please.

As for the government rewarding those who made unwise mortgage decisions through bail outs; would you rather see the market fall through the floor?

Sales are actually going UP again, compared to what they were; albeit at lower prices... I dare say that people who would begrudge the government bailout are pennywise and pound foolish.

It's costing alot less in bailout money than it would in lost property value if the government hadn't bailed them out. They're protecting our investment as well as the lender's.

Since you have a problem with "liberalism", would this have happened if the Clinton administration hadn't removed some regulations about lending?

It was just like Reagan's S&L fiasco, except we're not losing 1/20th as much money.
 BadForumGuy
Joined: 2/16/2008
Msg: 86
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The California RE market
Posted: 3/30/2008 4:21:27 PM
Sales are going up for seasonal reasons. Check year over year, it is very bad. The RE market is toast for at least another year or two until prices fall further and revert to the mean.

That is, RE prices based on area incomes and rental income, the days of million dollar loans for retail clerks, housekeepers, and janitors are done. If you want to buy, wait for the market to keep taking out the trash and let sellers bleed a while longer.

If you must buy now, find a hungry agent willing to make serious and insulting low-ball offers.
 StrangerInTheHouse
Joined: 2/9/2008
Msg: 87
The California RE market
Posted: 3/31/2008 12:35:19 PM
I've been getting indirect contact with the market through a couple coworkers who are making bids on houses. One of them has put in three different offers in the past four months or so and got outbid every time. Another one has made one offer and got outbid.

Maybe it's different around the bay area than other places, but from what I'm being told, it's still tough to buy...
 BadForumGuy
Joined: 2/16/2008
Msg: 88
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The California RE market
Posted: 3/31/2008 2:21:25 PM
All you have are anecdotes, the data says disaster:

www.dqnews.com
 StrangerInTheHouse
Joined: 2/9/2008
Msg: 89
The California RE market
Posted: 3/31/2008 3:59:21 PM

All you have are anecdotes, the data says disaster:

www.dqnews.com

Well now... it didn't say "disaster".. did it?
(I did a "control-find" search on the webpage to make sure of this before I wrote the question, so I was kinda sneaky...)



I'm sure that's the way some individuals feel who've lost equity in their homes or maybe couldn't afford their mortgage, but there's no run on the banks or anything approaching that.

You've got reasons to be skeptical about anyone's anecdotes, but from what I'm hearing from people I know, I've got reasons to be skeptical about people declaring this a "disaster" also.

I predict the California RE market won't be down for long.
 kjamesb
Joined: 3/24/2007
Msg: 90
The California RE market
Posted: 4/3/2008 3:45:54 PM
As selfish as this sounds I hope it continues to drop like a rock. I'm working on a little real-estate coup right now. I'm selling my house (my neighborhood still has decent values and houses DO sell albeit slowly). If I can get a decent price for it I intend to sit out for a couple of months hoping things continue to fall, then buy-down and pay cash for a distressed property.

Now, I get it. I will be preying on someone else's misfortune but in most cases these houses were houses that should never have been bought by the people who bought them at the prices that they sold for. So, I'm trying to end up with a decent house free and clear. That changes life dramatically when there's no mortgage payment!

Also, the more it drops the more people who sat out and were responsible will be rewarded as christy2luv points out (Hi christy2luv, been a while).

There's more pain to come to be sure but at the end of it if the government stays out of it we should have some sanity!

Now one of my previous posts on this subject...

I work in the industry as a computer geek, not a loan agent. I hear everyone saying 12-24 months before things start to rebound.

I have an INTUITION that SOMETHING is going to happen in Feb or March. Some report is going to come out, the Fed is going to lower rates...SOMETHING and all of a sudden people are going to realize that it's not all doom and gloom and start doing business again. I don't know what that SOMETHING that triggers it will be and like I said it's just an INTUITION with absolutely NOTHING to back it up. It won't be crazy busy like it was 2 years ago or so but with so many of the bottom feeders gone (and some big fish too) at won't take much to get the companies that are still around back to profitable.

At least we're still in business and that's more than a lot of them can say!


MAN was I wrong! Doom and gloom is here and I'm just trying to set myself up to ride it out.
 kittybiscuit
Joined: 2/11/2007
Msg: 91
The California RE market
Posted: 4/3/2008 5:04:19 PM
I don't think they should be bailed out for the simple fact that the market was over inflated and it is now correcting itself. If people are bailed out, then the market cannot move and the prices won't drop. The prices, at least in SoCal, need to drop significantly before the average working Joe can afford a home using the traditional mortage approach.

I can't afford to buy a house unless it is some cardboard box in ghettotown and I make somewhat decent money.
 MermaidSari
Joined: 2/4/2007
Msg: 92
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The California RE market
Posted: 4/8/2008 4:22:07 AM
Kitty -- that will be 350k on a 7% loan [and another 20k in home improvements on the carboard box]. ;-p

Kjames--


There's more pain to come to be sure but at the end of it if the government stays out of it we should have some sanity!


As a goverment employee, I approve your message about stopping the insanity. ;-p
 StrangerInTheHouse
Joined: 2/9/2008
Msg: 93
The California RE market
Posted: 4/13/2008 11:04:53 AM
... but what if not bailing them out leads to another Great Depression, where you wind up losing your job, your security and ultimately: your own property?

People these days never think of that. They only think of themselves...

My parents lived through the GD.... and taught me to treat my neighbors good, and help people who are having trouble... treat the people I work and live with like they gave me some free money, because in the final analysis, a good relationship with them is that; rather than like a rat jumping off a sinking ship.

Fulfill your own prophecy... we're in deep doodoo.
 StrangerInTheHouse
Joined: 2/9/2008
Msg: 94
The California RE market
Posted: 4/13/2008 9:50:27 PM
Well.... if the seventies didn't bother you that much... when the whole economy ground to a halt because we didn't have enough gas... or the eighties didn't bother you, when every night there were Savings and Loans going down the tube and the survival of our economy was front page news; then maybe a great depression wouldn't bother you so much; but the possibility that something like that might happen when the whole economy goes into a slide as it has makes me worry a little bit... and I suppose even many republicans are worried about it (despite the fact that they caused it with their insane monetary policy, stupid throwing money down a bottomless pit war for the oil industry and the humoungous amount of national debt they've accumulated by borrowing money to give tax cuts to the rich), as the most right wing president since Herbert Hoover has even tried to stop the tailspin by trying to bail the lenders as well as the borrowers out of this terrible problem.

Yaknow... I guess a person like you can look at things like anything has a fifty percent chance of happening: either it will or it won't *LOL*

Marie Antoinette never worried about scarcity...

I like to hedge my bets a little bit and not risk utter destruction of the economy. I'll pay afew tax dollars for that.

Oh.... and if you're so upset about the bailouts that homeowners are getting, why aren't you upset about the "Cowboy Starter Kit" real estate deals people are getting in Texas (and other states) where they're collecting billions of dollars in federal subsidies just for owning land that hasn't raised any farm products since Bush took office?

 oceangirlnla1
Joined: 12/24/2007
Msg: 95
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The California RE market
Posted: 4/14/2008 6:45:26 PM
I moved to California two years ago from Nebraska. I was a Realtor in Nebraska. Nebraska doesn't have the same situation going on as in California. From my point of view I just see greed. Greedy Realtors, Greedy Appraisers, and Greedy people in the Lending industry that basically took advantage of people who had no money to purchase a home and the home market and escalated the values and falsified loan documents to put money in their pockets. Now these same greedy people have no jobs and people are losing their homes and home values are plummeting because of that greed. Housing prices were escalating at an alarming rate a few years back (supply and demand but really there was no demand, there was a "false" demand) and the only way the housing industry could make a sale was for everyone associated with home sales to go after people who really couldn't afford to be home owners, these people were tricked into these crazy loans. And now it is all coming to the surface. Well, I hope all of the people who were in the housing industry a few years back are getting ready to lose their own homes too because it is pay back time for their greed!!! Thanks for messing up the housing market, ruining lives and the economy!!!
 StrangerInTheHouse
Joined: 2/9/2008
Msg: 96
The California RE market
Posted: 4/15/2008 8:05:23 AM
I may not enjoy arguing that much, but I don't mind disagreeing.

My opinion is that letting the homes go into default without giving the borrowers a chance to keep their homes could well make the housing industry lay off alot more people than are already layed off and cause an economic catastrophe, so I don't consider it to be anything less than a worthwhile investment.

The texas ripoff can be found online by googling "Moyers journal cowboy starter kits"
 oceangirlnla1
Joined: 12/24/2007
Msg: 97
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The California RE market
Posted: 4/15/2008 11:14:46 AM
I may have sounded argumentive but my point is...if the realtors, appraisers, and loan companies weren't all in kahoots, people would not be going into foreclosure right now. They offered the dream of homeownership to people who did not have the money to own and if documents were in truth would not have qualified. I only know this because of the people I know in California who are going into foreclosure told me that is what happened and also a lot of realtors I have spoke to told me they did this. When I first moved here two years ago I was approached by a realtor that he could sell me a home by he and the loan processor "Doctoring" up my loan application. I know how loans and home sales work, I did it in Nebraska and not once did I EVER falsify loan documents. I hear it over and over "HERE" that they did it. And it sounds like it was done more often than not. I live on the street where there are 20 homes, 8 are in foreclosure right now and I am sure another 5 or 6 will be soon....

But as I said...it's now pay back time to any of you out there that illegally sold homes in the last 4 to 5 years. You have no job in the home sales industry now and you've ruined a lot of lives. Shame on you!!!!
 The Minister of Dudeness
Joined: 6/11/2006
Msg: 98
The California RE market
Posted: 4/15/2008 2:39:18 PM
^ Sham operators / "perpetrators "+ unforgivably naive and greedy buyers / "victims" = reality eventually coming home to roost (like the current gaggle fcuk the politicians are now pandering to). Shame on the lending and R.E. sales industries, shame on the buyers, shame on the government "regulators", and shame on the rest of us who are allowing the vote-buying bailouts. Just one more sign that the Apocalypse of the U.S. melting down into a Third World society is upon us.
 oceangirlnla1
Joined: 12/24/2007
Msg: 99
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The California RE market
Posted: 4/15/2008 10:40:49 PM
It all boils down to Karma...and this is really bad Karma. When you do wrong, it will come back on you.
 Snowman104
Joined: 2/13/2008
Msg: 100
The California RE market
Posted: 4/16/2008 7:58:08 PM
Having a degree in Economics, I say let the market correct itself. No bailouts!
Stupid is as stupid does. People need to stop blaming others for their own bad choices that were driven by blind greed. Even if the government gets involved and provides these low interest loans, who is going to buy? Prices are going to continue crashing until early 2009. Can't wait. Daddy needs to buy some rock bottom priced foreclosures!
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