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Show ALL Forums  > Science/philosophy  > Effects of flooding on human development?      Home login  
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 qedeshim
Joined: 4/18/2008
Msg: 1
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Effects of flooding on human development?Page 1 of 5    (1, 2, 3, 4, 5)
With the menting of the ice sheets and sea level rising 350 feet as some suggest in fits and bursts, as opposed to a gradual rise over 12,000 years, could this have had any effect on the sudden sedentary lifestyle chosen afterwards?
 motown cowgirl
Joined: 6/30/2010
Msg: 2
Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 9/29/2011 6:32:53 AM
yes. DC will be turned back into a festering swamp overnight, everyone in the senate and house will drown like rats as they try to escape the city thru their private subway system, and the IRS will finally suffocate in their own shit as the toilets overflow explosively, with absolutely no hope of containing it all.

awesome, isn't it.
 stargazer1000
Joined: 1/16/2008
Msg: 3
Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 9/29/2011 7:08:15 AM
As my son might say: When your floating down a river in your birdhouse and the antenna falls off, how many cups of sugar will it take to get to Jupiter? NONE, silly! Worms dont eat nails!
 IgorFrankensteen
Joined: 6/29/2009
Msg: 4
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Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 9/29/2011 2:41:11 PM
With the menting of the ice sheets and sea level rising 350 feet as some suggest in fits and bursts, as opposed to a gradual rise over 12,000 years, could this have had any effect on the sudden sedentary lifestyle chosen afterwards?


Could you rearrange that grammatically, so that I know what you are really asking? Especially explain what "menting" is.

You start out in present-future time, then insert an aside that has SOMETHING to do with predicting the future, and finish with a past-tense question, which STILL manages to shift to a post-view of an imagined (?) future of a "sudden sedentary lifestyle."

Are you asking if I think that IF the sea levels rise more suddenly than are currently predicted, that everyone will become lazy, relaxed, and stop exercising as a result?

If that's your question, then I would say that MY guess would be ....

NO.
 joemac356
Joined: 9/22/2009
Msg: 5
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Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 9/29/2011 6:50:18 PM
If the seas were to suddenly rise 350 feet, the least of our concerns will be who turned into a couch potato.
 lyingcheat
Joined: 9/13/2009
Msg: 6
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Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 9/29/2011 7:32:35 PM

I, for one, will follow the steps of the Great Leader of the Green Movement, the Inventor of the Internet, one Al Gore, and buy a house at sea level.......

I bet you could pick up a bargain beachfront property in Tuvalu or Kiribati.

Tuvalu
Considered one of the world's countries most susceptible to climate change, it has a population of approximately 11,000. Tuvalu is often described as a canary in a mine, with predictions that it will become the first country to follow Atlantis into the ocean. Beachhead erosion, coastal engineering, environmental mismanagement, overpopulation, deforestation, and deteriorating coral reefs are acting together and in conjunction with global warming to affect sea levels and cause damage to Tuvalu's underground water table. A 1989 United Nations report on the greenhouse effect stated that Tuvalu would completely disappear into the ocean in the twenty-first century, unless global warming was drastically diminished. United States is the world's largest overall polluter, while Australia takes the trophy for highest greenhouse-gas emissions per capita.

The spotlight first fell on Tuvalu when then Tuvalu Prime Minister Koloa Talake addressed world leaders at the Kyoto conference in Japan in 1997. He petitioned countries around the world to take immediate action on global warming and make the changes needed to stop it in its tracks. He explained his low-lying country's vulnerability to a rising sea and told the world how Tuvalu was sinking into the Pacific Ocean. Most nations present agreed to lower their emissions but neither the United States nor Australia supported the Kyoto Protocol, refusing to sign the agreement because developing nations were not subject to the same restrictions on the amount of greenhouse gases they could produce. In 2000, then Tuvalu Prime Minister Ionatana Ionatana again focused international attention on this small independent nation when he addressed the United Nations and spoke of global climate change and the impact that globalization has on indigenous cultures, security, and sovereignty.
http://www.moyak.com/papers/tuvalu-climate-change.html



Kiribati Leader Plans Evacuation Due to Rising Sea Levels

Kiribati President Anote Tong says his country’s decision earlier this year to establish the world’s largest marine protected area in the Phoenix Islands was its gift to humanity.

Meanwhile the waters are taking away from Kiribati, Tong says, as rising sea levels caused by climate change claim more of the island nation’s land and threaten the way of life of Kiribati’s citizens. I-Kiribati, as the citizens of the country call themselves, and residents of other low-lying island nations may now have to turn to other countries for assistance.

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projected a sea level increase of 0.4 meters within this century. Kiribati’s elevation is no more than 2 meters above sea level. Its fresh water comes from aquifers. Saltwater intrusion into the aquifers is expected to make the islands uninhabitable before rising water overtakes settlements, Tong said.

“We will lose our homes. The islands will lose their ability to sustain life,” said Tong at a Sept. 22 press event in Boston. “We are already experiencing a lot of problems.” His September trip to the United States included stops at Harvard University, the New England Aquarium and the United Nations. During his travels, Tong spoke about both the Phoenix Islands Protected Area and about the strategic plan for Kiribati as it faces an uncertain future.

He is working with other countries to essentially begin a gradual evacuation of his nation of 110,360 people. Tong has struck deals with Australia and New Zealand to train a small number of I-Kiribati to perform jobs those countries have trouble filling. He is also trying to find other options for Kiribati’s citizens as he pursues his goal of relocating 1,000 I-Kiribati a year for the next 20 years.

“We want to move our people with as much dignity as possible,” Tong told an audience at Harvard University’s Center for the Environment. “For us it is not a matter of economics, it is a matter of survival."

“Already we are suffering things that we never experienced before,” Tong said, citing prolonged drought, destruction of the coast and coral bleaching. When people ask Tong, who holds a master’s degree from the London School of Economics, how he can be sure these problems are due to climate change, he admits he’s not certain. “What I know is that it is happening, and it did not happen previously.”

“It’s really very impressive to hear you talk about the tough decisions that your people are facing,” said Harvard’s Jim McCarthy, professor of biological oceanography, following Tong’s address at Harvard.

Tong has been sounding the alarm about the ill effects of global warming for years, and he says it has been difficult to get people to listen, in part because the international community has been distracted by security and terrorism concerns. He addressed the subject in his speech before the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 25.

“It is indeed pleasing to note that climate change is finally being given due recognition as a security issue,” Tong said.

“We welcome this development, as we believe it is time the United Nations focus its attention on the human dimension of climate change,” he said. “At the same time I am deeply concerned that there has never been a discussion of the fate of humans whose very existence is seriously undermined by climate change.”
http://www.conservation.org/sites/gcf/fmg/articles/Pages/kiribati_evacprep.aspx


http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/pages/rising-seas.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_highest_point
 lyingcheat
Joined: 9/13/2009
Msg: 7
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Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 9/29/2011 9:54:52 PM

Hey LC
If the water levels around those islands are going up, and given what is currently held by modern physics, then why is it that my friend on the Island of Kona who happens to own waterfront property close to Captian Cooks Cove, or Kelikekua Bay, has not seen any water level rising at all?

You're asking me to speculate on why someone you allege exists, who allegedly owns waterfront property in Hawaii, hasn't allegedly noticed any water level rising?
mmm... maybe he's.... blind? Or stupid? Or both?
Perhaps he's looking inland?
I give up.
Why hasn't he noticed any water level rises then? I'm curious too, what impact does your alleged friends observational skills, or lack thereof, have to do with anything?

Is the water around those islands the only place that the levels are rising........ or are the Hawaiin Islands themselves somehow rising?

You haven't revealed anything about Hawaii's relationship to the sea level, other than by a reference to your alleged friend and his undocumented observational skills. Your questions therefore are meaningless.

Best tell your friend to stay in Hawaii though, because other places in the US seem to be affected.
The continent must be sinking hey?


In the United States, said a report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program in January 2009, "rising sea levels are submerging low lying lands, eroding beaches, converting wetlands to open water, exacerbating coastal flooding, and increasing the salinity of estuaries and freshwater aquifers." Four of the top 20 cities with populations and infrastructure assets most exposed to increasing sea level and storm damage are in the United States: New York, Virginia Beach, Miami and New Orleans.

World View of Global Warming has been documenting these changes since 1999, and in March 2010 we completed a re-photography expedition to North Carolina, Florida, and parts of Chesapeake Bay. The lead photograph here, of houses condemned by county officials after a storm washed up to 70 feet of sand away from South Nags Head beach in late 2009, is featured in the Koshland Museum of Science in Washington DC.

Coastal erosion eats away at North Carolina's Outer Banks and its homes. Successive views of 219 Altoona Street South, Nags Head NC, on the shore of Cape Hatteras. Sales flyer shows beach and grassy dune in front of house, but the actual condition in October 2004 was severe erosion far back under house and footings. By March 2010 erosion had pushed back to the next houses on street and left 9 other houses that were once on Sea Gull Drive completely separated from the dunes. The owner of 219 Altoona moved the house to an inland location in June 2009. More than 20 other houses along beach to north and south of this house in south Nags Head are now in the surf, condemned by county health department due to damage to septic tanks or declared nuisances by the city. Increasing sea level rise foreseen in the coming decades will speed the natural processes of barrier island change and reformation.
http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/pages/rising-seas.html




Actually, a group of scientists have postulated that the reason for those Islands becoming flooded is not that the water level is rising, as then the water level would have to rise evenly ACROSS THE WHOLE WORLD, but that they are sinking.

What group of scientists? Do you have a citation for that?

The article I quoted seemed to be saying the opposite. That, in fact, the only thing that might save these Pacific Island communities is the coral reefs responding to the rising sea levels and regenerating ie; increasing height.

You realise that sea levels aren't measured by sticking a marker on the beach hey?


Sea level is measured now not only by direct tide gauges, but by an array of satellites which measure the height of the open ocean where no tide gauges could be placed. With the historical record combined with modern sea surface measurements, the rate of change of sea level can clearly be seen. The current rate of about 3mm per year is equal to about 12 inches a century -- double the rate for most of the 20th c. The acceleration of this rate is expected to continue, resulting in an estimated 30 or more inches (approaching a meter) of sea level rise by the end of the century.
http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/pages/rising-seas.html
 IgorFrankensteen
Joined: 6/29/2009
Msg: 8
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Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 9/30/2011 3:31:32 AM
Actually, Paul is right.

This whole issue about water levels and melting icecaps is more complicated than just the idea that the oceans are getting deeper.

As the ice melts, and the water flows away from it, the amount of weight in top of that piece of the earths crust goes down. There is a strong possibility that, just as with an old balance scale, that as that downward pressure is reduced in one area, that the land will rise, and the land in another area nearby will fall.

The Earth is NOT a simple, uniform ball of equally distributed rock and water. Part of why Global Warming and the challenges it presents have been so difficult to get across, IS because it isn't so simple as "ice melts, so the seas rise uniformally across the planet."

We don't get the same WEATHER everywhere, because the planet isn't uniform. We don't get the same TEMPERATURE everywhere, because the planet isn't uniform. We wont get the same response to sea-level changes everywhere, because neither the Earth's crust, nor the local conditions of what the land consists of are uniform.

Heck, GRAVITY isn't even uniform across the entire surface of the planet.
 Professoro
Joined: 8/1/2011
Msg: 9
Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 9/30/2011 6:31:19 AM
It is very difficult to get a reference level to measure sea level rise against because of the
(1) very nonuniform distribution of gravity across the globe and (2) interglacial rebound
of land masses. For example, assuming that your reference geoid is a spherical or even an oblate spheroid leads to a greater than 100 m jump in your referenced sea height between waters around Iceland and waters above the Puerto Rico trench. The satellite mission GRACE is making accurate measurements of gravity from around the globe and one of its goal is a reference geoid.

Not all melting ice will increase sea level, I'll let someone else explain why this is so.

Globing Warming is a terrible name since some parts of the planet will cool. I like
Climate Variability. cheers, O
 lyingcheat
Joined: 9/13/2009
Msg: 10
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Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 9/30/2011 6:32:30 AM

Actually, Paul is right.

This whole issue about water levels and melting icecaps is more complicated than just the idea that the oceans are getting deeper.

As the ice melts, and the water flows away from it, the amount of weight in top of that piece of the earths crust goes down. There is a strong possibility that, just as with an old balance scale, that as that downward pressure is reduced in one area, that the land will rise, and the land in another area nearby will fall.

You and Paul should publish. I'm sure the 90% of the world scientific community who have been duped into believing global warming, and the consequences thereof, are real will be much relieved to be told it is all just a misunderstanding.
 motown cowgirl
Joined: 6/30/2010
Msg: 11
Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 9/30/2011 6:44:40 AM
The spotlight first fell on Tuvalu when then Tuvalu Prime Minister Koloa Talake addressed world leaders at the Kyoto conference in Japan in 1997. He petitioned countries around the world to take immediate action on global warming and make the changes needed to stop it in its tracks.

Koloa Talake can petition all he wants, but if he actually thinks mankind can do anything to "stop it in its tracks", then either he is woefully misinformed or he has more hubris than Caligula.

i don't think the arguments about global warming are particularly useful when even the so-called experts can't agree about the specifics. there are competing arguments about how the grand canyon got made, and current theory does not match with what we've been taught, so why should there be this unanimous groupthink about global warming? that would be reducing things to propaganda and a political agenda, not science. anyway i get suspicous the second anyone tries to frame the terms of a debate by automatically declaring dissenting views as "wrong".

let's just say that what's really useful is knowing that there isn't much, if anything, we can do about global warming anyway (which is not to say that we shouldn't continue our quest to reduce industrial carbon emissions or discover a way to keep cows from farting). but can we stop a hurricane in its tracks? can we influence the course of the tides? then what makes you think we can do anything about global warming? paddle faster.


btw, i'm no particular fan of Al Gore but i would like to point out that his statement about inventing the internet was a joke, and everyone in the room who heard him say it understood it as such. so the republicans who like to pretend that he was taking himself seriously when he said it are either ignorant of the facts, or they are disingenuous two-faced liars and completely full of shit.
 Professoro
Joined: 8/1/2011
Msg: 12
Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 9/30/2011 8:36:01 AM
The best estimates of sea level change is around 1.5 -2 mm/yr and is primarily from (1) mass changes, (2) increased water temperatures (the steric effect) and (3) from melting ice. These are ordered in importance best on the best guess we have right now. All 3 components have significant spatial variations so local effects can be different than average global effects. Error bars on these measurements prevents one from making definite statements. For a great reference on this,

ftp://eagle.grdl.noaa.gov/pub/bob/2004nature.pdf

I know both authors, for decades, and they are very good scientists.

The relative accuracy of the satellite measurements is about an inch,which is amazing given that the satellite is 500 miles away. The absolute accuracy depends on the reference geoid. The first measurements of sea surface height from space were referenced to a simple geoid and the maps looked like a topographic map of the ocean with the mid-ocean ridge, ocean trenches, sea mounts, etc, clearly visible. Now a much better geoid is used but its construction is an inverse problem and no unique solution exists. Because of this, these satellite measurements are better suited for measuring the rate of change of sea level change, the acceleration, and the measurements do show that the acceleration is increasing, in agreement with many numerical simulations. cheers, O
 stargazer1000
Joined: 1/16/2008
Msg: 13
Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 9/30/2011 2:25:10 PM

The purpose of the experiment was to show that when water freezes, it expands........ as does the water that is frozen in the artic.................. So when it melts a bit, that is why the levels aren't effected.


The concern about melting ice is not the arctic sea ice - at least, not as it pertains to water level. The concern is the land-bound ice and when it melts. Like Greenland. And the Antarctic glaciers.

That's the equivalent of filling the glass with ice and water andthen adding extra ice on top beyond the water level.
 IgorFrankensteen
Joined: 6/29/2009
Msg: 14
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Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 9/30/2011 3:46:12 PM
By the by, small point: I wasn't saying that "global warming is all a misunderstanding," I'm saying that "global warming is commonly misunderstood." Important difference.
 Professoro
Joined: 8/1/2011
Msg: 15
Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 10/3/2011 3:39:02 AM
Sea level fluctuates on the order of 100 m with a natural period of 20,000 to 22,000 years, so planetary ice dynamics do have a large effect on sea level. During the last glacier, sea level was lower by around 200 ft. This is a very large number so there is no doubt that changing temperatures and ice melting can dramatically change sea level. Paul you are quoting temperatures from the middle of the continent, the melting will take place along the coastal boundaries and your numbers are not valid there and the Arctic numbers are different. The primary unknown at this time is whether man-made influences will significantly shorten this period. As I mentioned above, though the largest changes in sea level today are due to the redistribution of mass in the solid earth, but we are now measuring changes in sea level due to ice melting and the warming of the ocean. The seasonal difference in sea level in any average year is about 1/4 m or 6 inches at mid latitudes due to thermal expansion and contraction of water with changing temperatures over the year. The inverse barometer effect (as atmospheric pressure decreases by a dbar, sea level increases by 1 cm) is 1/4-1/2 m, ocean currents and rings have a sea level signal of .25-1.5 m and waves 0.5 - 10 m, so it takes a lot of data to average over to see a long-term trend. The data does show that there is a significant trend in sea level rising, larger than the natural trend, and the trend itself is increasing. All of these numbers can be backed up with peer-reviewed published papers.

Local numbers for sea level rise are different than the average global number because the 3 primary factors, mass redistribution of the solid earth, the steric effect (thermal expansion), and runoff/melting are different in different places. So it possible, actually quite likely, that some places will see sea level decrease while the majority of places are experiencing a sea level increase. cheers, O

PS England is relatively warm because of the Gulf Stream and Mediterranean Water
 stargazer1000
Joined: 1/16/2008
Msg: 16
Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 10/3/2011 12:46:22 PM

Seeing how you are a professor, can you explain to me why is it that EVERY time there was a warming, it was FOLLOWED by an increase in CO2 levels, and not the other way around


Do you have citation for this? Because this sounds like typical denialist rhetoric.


The WHOLE anthropological global warming nonsense is based on the CO2 levels going up first, they don't, yet nobody weems to get that.


I'm calling BS on that.
 stargazer1000
Joined: 1/16/2008
Msg: 17
Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 10/3/2011 1:30:42 PM
OK, just this one more time............

If you're going to make a specific assertion, YOU need to provide specific proof of that assertion. The burden of proof is on YOU.

Golly gee, isn't intellectual honesty fun........
 stargazer1000
Joined: 1/16/2008
Msg: 18
Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 10/3/2011 1:54:37 PM
You want more specific than "Vostock Ice Core Samples, 150,000 to 100,000 years ago"?


Yeah. I do. After all, if it's so solid an assertion, than the data should be right at your fingertips. I'm surprised you're so hesitant.

Arxiv.org is a good source. Actual SCIENCE websites give pretty good links.

Edit:


What Al Gore left out of his movie: the 800 year lag
by Dan Reed


Source?

 stargazer1000
Joined: 1/16/2008
Msg: 19
Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 10/3/2011 3:08:18 PM
Paul, why do you keep refusing to actually cite a source instead of "quoting" or paraphrasing so we can examine it for ourselves?

What are you afraid of? Perhaps that we might find problems with your sources. Like, maybe, they come from the usual global climate change denial sources we know have been discredited on numerous occasions? Perhaps?


I am certain that you will be able to find the chart that al gore refers to, and lots of other information on actual SCIENCE websites. But then, it would be a matter of actually looking at them.


How can I when you refuse to actually link them?

Why is that, Paul?
 stargazer1000
Joined: 1/16/2008
Msg: 20
Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 10/3/2011 4:33:42 PM

The chart I am referring to is in al gores movie, and I am positive that it received rave reviews from you. BUT, I can't copy/paste charts and graphs on this site. That is why, star..................


Ssooooooo....your citation is a single reference to a movie. No actual academic source...just a movie you didn't like then.

Okay then, Paul. Good to know the right wing science denial rhetoric is still getting good use.
 swingarm1966
Joined: 3/27/2011
Msg: 21
Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 10/3/2011 4:53:03 PM
Al Gore is mixed up about the charts.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bi2QKY3zW8Q

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWRqQ_iI7qQ&feature=related
 swingarm1966
Joined: 3/27/2011
Msg: 22
Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 10/3/2011 5:13:15 PM
Academia is not bullet proof. It is often more about commerce and research money.(or in this case cap and trade/carbon tax) This is a fact that cant be ignored ..just for the record.
 stargazer1000
Joined: 1/16/2008
Msg: 23
Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 10/3/2011 8:49:33 PM

..just for the record.


Ah yes, the old "scientists on the take" accusation. Rarely if ever with supporting evidence, of course.
 stargazer1000
Joined: 1/16/2008
Msg: 24
Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 10/3/2011 8:52:11 PM

If you would at least read what I write, you would see that what I am referring to is the CHART in the movie........ a CHART that was done by SCIENTISTS whom al gore trusted, but he merely reported the results backwords of what they really were............ Doesn't that bother you in the least?


Again.... C.I.T.A.T.I.O.N.


ci·ta·tionNoun/sīˈtāSHən/
1. A quotation from or reference to a book, paper, or author, esp. in a scholarly work.
 Professoro
Joined: 8/1/2011
Msg: 25
Effects of flooding on human development?
Posted: 10/4/2011 4:44:50 AM
Paul, I was giving order of magnitude numbers; I don't need a new software converter.
You are right about the temperature leading CO2 at Vostok, on the average, over the entire record. The following is from Manfred Mudelsee's article in Quaternary Science Reviews 20 (2001) 583-589 titled, " The phase relations among atmospheric CO2 content, temperature and global ice volume over the past 420 ka." (Note that ka = 1,000 years. )

"Over the full 420 ka of the Vostok record, CO2 variations lag behind atmospheric temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere by 1.3 +- 1.0 ka, and lead over global ice-volume variations by 2.7 +- 1.3 ka."

The important point is that he (and others) found that when both temperature and CO2
increased, then sea level increased because of steric changes and ice melting. The average period between glacial events was order 100,000 yrs. The fastest natural cycle can be order 20,000 yrs. Recent measurements indicate that we are reducing this period. There is considerable debate over what we are reducing it to.

There is also a difference in signal between the S and N hemispheres, get a copy of
Sowers and Bender's July 1995 paper published in Science.

Swingarm, no need to take cheap shots at scientists. Scientific fraud is very rare and
there is much more fraud in other fields. Very few results have been pulled after
being published in peer reviewed literature. cheers, O
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