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 moonwalkerman
Joined: 2/19/2008
Msg: 1
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The future of the world economyPage 1 of 2    (1, 2)
I know that so far, every economic crisis has eventually ended, and brought on more prosperity. This time around, I am not so sure. I cannot really see an area with growth potential in order to provide the millions of jobs needed. Manufacturing is getting ever more efficient, with ever less people needed. Obviously, there are pockets of growth, but the skills required are hard to find.
I am curious to know what your thoughts are. Where is the potential for growth ?
 Bloke_up_North
Joined: 12/13/2008
Msg: 2
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The future of the world economy
Posted: 5/4/2012 1:36:02 PM
Learn Mandarin Chinese and buy a one way air ticket.
 Aristotle_Amadopolis
Joined: 12/8/2011
Msg: 3
The future of the world economy
Posted: 5/4/2012 2:15:46 PM

I know that so far, every economic crisis has eventually ended, and brought on more prosperity.

Economic crisis in themselves create great posterity as the wealthy have never had it better.

The can be used to leverage governments to give more to the rich and less to the poor.





I am curious to know what your thoughts are. Where is the potential for growth ?

The most growth will be created artificially by natural resources sectors taking a page of the De-beers play book by hording and speculating.

Prisons and pharmaceutical corporations will also do well.
 _TALL_IQ2_
Joined: 2/10/2010
Msg: 4
The future of the world economy
Posted: 5/4/2012 2:38:20 PM
Obviously, there are pockets of growth, but the skills required are hard to find. I am curious to know what your thoughts are. Where is the potential for growth ?


Teaching those high-tech skills, healthcare, entertainment including instant news media and live sports, transportation/aircraft manufacturers, small arms/ammunition production and high-tech weapons, construction contracting/rebuilding infrastructure in third-world countries ravaged by local conflicts..

The current global recession will last a few more years until most people get fed up with waiting for it to end and decide to start buying new houses, furniture, cars and replacement major appliances/electronic goods once again..
 Stray__Cat
Joined: 7/12/2006
Msg: 5
The future of the world economy
Posted: 5/4/2012 5:34:37 PM
This is a good question.

We are in another worldwide depression.
which like the last one, was caused by too much speculation
betting on forever rising demand
in a world that soon became oversupplied.

Crashes always go like that.

This depression has a few new wrinkles different than the last.
(and while depressions may come about by similar means,
the progression and outcomes can be very different.)

In this one, the over speculated debt was not allowed to go bust.
(There are reasons for this which I won't go into unless asked.)
That is new.
Usually speculators go bankrupt and drag the financial sector with them.
Bad debts disappear, but so does the balance sheets of good companies and banks.
The ripple effects ruin good and bad businesses thru widespread bank failures.

But by govts buying bad debts....100% on the dollar....that necessary purging of the system
has not taken place and is only delayed.
Even worse, Goldman Sachs bad debts and mortgage frauds are now owned by taxpayers.
All this talk of cutting benefits to lessen govt debt
is really about cutting benefits to pay for Wallstreet's crimes and stupidity.
How folks eventually digest that fact will largely determine how this plays out.

Another wrinkle on this one is we're hitting the limits in some key resources.
and having to deal with hitting climate limitations as well.

In the past depression....after WWII purged excess inventories and people,
we got back to growth with what seemed like limitless resources and room to grow.
We won't get that this time.
Unless we have another big war to purge inventories,economies, and people.
I mean just wipe out 4 billion people and the rest may see plenty again.
maybe...
from their bunkers....once the radiation clears.

So we are at a crossroads.
and may have to learn to live in a closed cycle of what we got.
And not an open ended cycle of forever growth.

This has never happened on a worldwide scale before.
But it has happened to western societies before.
Which solved the problem by going out and conquering foreign folks
to steal their stuff and labor for shipping back to their own economies at a profit.

Capitalism depends on this.
The ability to somehow get something cheap to sell at a profit.
THE NEED for growth is built in.

When we can't grow.
It ends.

Perhaps...at the end of this...we may finally reach that golden age....
where instead of growth based on destroy, build, burn, and throw away...
we may go with recycle, churn, and re-use.
Not growth per se.
But living within our resource limits.
We have the means and technology to do so.

But not the will.
yet.

Cus in order for some to do better,
the majority must do worse.
There is no mythical stream that can raise all boats.
Right now....politically....those whose boats are floating,
have no interest in your sinking dingy.

Until that changes....
we will not progresss.
And it will.
hopefully, not violently.
But probably so.
when a few get all the marbles they don't willingly share .

As things are set up now, the majority is set to fail.
Yet in a democratic country.....
the majority will not willingly accede to that.

It will take conflict to resolve this issue.
maybe just political conflict.
Maybe actual.

So we will either have another newer deal to set things to rights,
or freedom will be curtailed so those few in the boats can remain floating.
Fascism may well make a comeback in this depression just like the last.
(and so might communism in reaction to it.)

Hopefully neither will come about.

I'm still waiting to see how the young will grasp what's going on and react to it
before I speculate on outcomes.
Everyone is in delusion and denial so far.
 gingerosity
Joined: 12/10/2011
Msg: 6
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The future of the world economy
Posted: 5/4/2012 5:54:23 PM

This has never happened on a worldwide scale before.
But it has happened to western societies before.
Which solved the problem by going out and conquering foreign folks



Where is the potential for growth ?


Space. The final frontier.
 Stray__Cat
Joined: 7/12/2006
Msg: 7
The future of the world economy
Posted: 5/4/2012 5:59:59 PM
That is a possibility.
But we better get there fast!
 JustDukky
Joined: 7/8/2004
Msg: 8
The future of the world economy
Posted: 5/5/2012 4:57:10 AM
The only area with growth potential is R&D on the best way to eliminate people without them catching on that they are being killed off for being useless to the moneyed elite. There are a lot of promising options, with viruses and GMO's being the most favourable in tests so far (fluoridation is falling out of favour as people have caught on). Anyone looking for a career in subtle human extermination techniques is bound to get a high paying job.
 red_fir
Joined: 11/21/2011
Msg: 9
The future of the world economy
Posted: 5/5/2012 8:39:35 AM
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

It seems extraordinary attention has been paid to the flu virus, with built in excuses for the effectiveness on the elderly and weak, (read expensive) population.
It would be easy to start epidemics in the guise of "prevention", five or ten shots of very viable influenza among antibodies for another strain and oops! "we just didn't have the resources at hand to combat this and since the people are poor (fixed incomes, poor mobility) they didn't seek attention in a timely fashion".
The people who administer it wouldn't even need to know what they were doing.
 purfectmeow
Joined: 4/17/2012
Msg: 10
The future of the world economy
Posted: 5/5/2012 9:05:47 AM
^ This is why I see a technological revolution of sorts. There are some smart people globally tired of the political bs. Its only a matter of time before history repeats itself.
 slimchance2010
Joined: 9/26/2010
Msg: 11
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The future of the world economy
Posted: 5/7/2012 9:27:55 AM
The future economy will have one major growth industry and that is creating what the elitists like to refer to as "useless eaters". It will be both interesting and terrible to see how they whittle down the numbers of people they feel are useless.
China is being wooed (no cultural pun intended) by most of the big corporations as the new economic frontier. It seems safe at this point to assume that this will be at the expense of north america. They can produce their stuff over there for ridiculously low costs and sell it there to chinese eager to display their wealth to the world.
Where will north america fit into the future economic structure? The more important question is, Will it?
 WiseBurro
Joined: 11/25/2011
Msg: 12
The future of the world economy
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:03:40 PM
Soylent Green is made...from....People!!
 gingerosity
Joined: 12/10/2011
Msg: 13
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The future of the world economy
Posted: 5/7/2012 2:29:31 PM
It seems safe at this point to assume that this will be at the expense of north america.


Incorrect assumption. Zero sum economics was debunked a long time ago. The growth of one economy increases trade and prosperity of both countries - that there is a 'winner' doesn't mean that there is also a 'loser'.


Where will north america fit into the future economic structure? The more important question is, Will it?


The more important question is where will the poor Chinese and Chinese culture fit into the future economic structure.
 aboutgettingby
Joined: 2/18/2011
Msg: 14
The future of the world economy
Posted: 5/16/2012 4:48:04 PM
I feel the solution is going to have to come from cheap energy, without it we are in trouble.

Water becomes a scarce commodity but with cheap energy the desalinzation and shipping of the processed fresh water will make it a non issue.

Fertile land becomes scarce, but with cheap energy arid areas can be irrigated and farmed, land and food become readily available.

Natural resources become increasingly scarce but as new discoveries are made that can manufacture synthetic replacements for steal, alluminum, etc it will not really be felt.

For all of these you will need cheap energy.

Nuclear Plasma Fusion; a labratory in Princeton New Jersey is getting close to creating energy that is generated from a source that is plentifull, cheap, and safe. The problem is going to be the energy companies, will the utlization of these new forms of energy allow them to transform and stay profitable or will there be a discerned effort to squash them. Politically will these new technologies be made readily available to third world countries.

http://rt.com/usa/news/plasma-fusion-energy-nuclear-080/

I think the possibilities are endless but they are going to be so dependant on cheap safe energy that the world does not have right now.
 Balsamica
Joined: 2/24/2012
Msg: 15
The future of the world economy
Posted: 5/18/2012 12:04:56 PM
aboutgettingby,

""feel the solution is going to have to come from cheap energy, without it we are in trouble.""

We're in a lot more trouble if energy were cheaper and still carbon-based. There is only so much on the planet and it will only get used up all that faster. I hope you meant to say renewable energy.

""Water becomes a scarce commodity but with cheap energy the desalinzation and shipping of the processed fresh water will make it a non issue.""

Desalinization is expensive. It wouldn't be pretty to live in a world with little or no running water which would have to be purchased at $10 a gallon.

""Fertile land becomes scarce, but with cheap energy arid areas can be irrigated and farmed, land and food become readily available.""

No, we've pretty much stripped all the topsoil off America, the dirt that's there needs chemical soup to feed plants, the byproducts of those chemicals go into rivers and streams, etc. I think it's all pretty much chemicals now, fertile is gone.

""Natural resources become increasingly scarce but as new discoveries are made that can manufacture synthetic replacements for steal, alluminum, etc it will not really be felt.""

Plastic? I'd like to see what this magical new material is.

""I think the possibilities are endless but they are going to be so dependant on cheap safe energy that the world does not have right now.""

I'm glad someone is optimistic!!!!!!!!!!!! :-)
 notdating-forumsonly
Joined: 4/6/2012
Msg: 16
The future of the world economy
Posted: 7/2/2012 3:33:41 PM

.that necessary purging of the system
has not taken place and is only delayed.
Even worse, Goldman Sachs bad debts and mortgage frauds are now owned by taxpayers.
All this talk of cutting benefits to lessen govt debt
is really about cutting benefits to pay for Wallstreet's crimes and stupidity.
How folks eventeually digest that fact will largely determine how this plays out.


You hit the nail on the head. The necessary correction (purging) of the system and the markets contained within the system.
Take GM, for instance. It was one of the first gov't bailouts. Wages are too high, IMO, for the GM employees on the manufacturing (etc) side. When inflation gets out of control ( coupled with layoffs and downsizing and a change in the market in general), it needs to correct itself. Cut wages, and keep the jobs is one solution. GM et al should not have been allowed to be bailed out. The market has to correct itself.

Secondarily, while the US was being bailed out, and prior to this, we were ( and are) sending jobs to other countries.
Obviously to save expenses for the manufacturer/ employer, but at what long term cost? Less jobs and zero manufacturing etc in our country by these manufacturers, phone companies ( servicing side), etc. Not good.

Prior to this current recession, there were 3 sectors driving the economy: manufacturing, housing and energy.

Manufacturing has largely gone out of the country. I just looked at new furniture and a co. that used to be manufactured here is now made in China.
Housing- slowly picking up but I feel that there are still a lot of foreclosures out there, and it will take the market 3-5 years, minimum, to recover or stabilize fully and that's if another rock isn't thrown into the housing spoke.
Energy- well, they're making money, but it's affecting all but the wealthy and the ones who own the energy interests.

At least 2 of the 3 main sectors at the time need to be viable to have a decent economy IMO. We only have 1 ( energy) and it's not really stable.

The tech industry was picking back up and I heard that a large tech co was going to have 27,000 layoffs across the country in the near future.
 adamoof
Joined: 9/12/2011
Msg: 17
The future of the world economy
Posted: 7/3/2012 10:11:04 AM
I think that no one can guess the form of the economy in the future, for a simple reason, that the economy based on services does not produce wealth
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