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 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 1
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random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...Page 1 of 3    (1, 2, 3)
Honestly rejection is so hard for some people .
I thought he was bearing up. I'd be flattered if he
wasn't such a minger. He's spoiling my night out.
I know this is boring for some people after the
the epic 2017 insultfest. So from now on if I can
have this thread I'll refer him charitably to message
139 on chap's lovely bitcoin thread and 151 too so he can keep
tabs on himself.
 RoxyMoronic
Joined: 6/7/2016
Msg: 2
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Posted: 3/2/2018 2:19:26 PM
I absolutely love this thread!!
What’s it about?
My fridays been a quiet one because of the snow. I’m usually drunkenly dancing to abba or the bee gees by now.
 Squareslice
Joined: 10/17/2016
Msg: 3
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 3/2/2018 4:14:22 PM
It's all about you.
It.s all about you, baby

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6wLv56H14I
 Hotbeaching
Joined: 5/21/2017
Msg: 4
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 3/3/2018 1:34:13 AM
Just been on the telly about them.
Attempts will be made to regulate them,
 Justanotherchap
Joined: 12/4/2013
Msg: 5
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Posted: 3/3/2018 4:24:31 AM
Can I intrude on this macroeconomics thread with a touch of microeconomics please.

I have just wandered into work to read an email saying I have good news from the National Lottery. On checking in I find I have won £2.80 which is a profit of 30p on my £2.50 ticket.

Slightly disappointed.
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 6
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Posted: 3/3/2018 4:52:45 AM
" Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."


CHARLES ****NS. DAVID COPPERFIELD.

I just made a cheese and ham toastie for 30 p ..
It was exquisite. ...the lottery is a tax on the poor..
Shame on brixton John. .


Silver is the most undervalued asset in the world .


 rekirked
Joined: 11/7/2017
Msg: 7
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Posted: 3/3/2018 6:26:07 AM
For every three quid in circulation ninety seven quid has been produced out of thin air.

The money the bank lent you for your mortgage? never existed. The money BMW/AUDI/Mercedes finance lent you for your new car deal? it never existed.

The capital + interest you repay? it exists, you toil many hours for it.

The whole system if fcuking rotten to the core.

I lend you 10 potatoes i haven't got to swap with your neighbour for three cabbages he has got on condition you repay me with 4 potatoes a year for three years. Your neighbour tells me to just add the potatoes his stash in my vault for safe keeping. They don't exist obviously but as long as your neighbour thinks they do we're all cool.

I own a percentage of your labour for three years and i've made 2 real potatoes for doing fcuk all........... and if i was feeling really cheeky i'd also flog you insurance against spud repayment failure and cream a little bit more out of you....oh wait.

As long as no one wants all their potatoes back at once no one will know i lent potatoes i never had and i can keep earning real potatoes for doing bugger all.

I wonder what D1ckens would have made of FRB.
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 8
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Posted: 3/3/2018 6:40:18 AM
Excellent kirk you are according to Keynes a man in a million ;)




By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth. Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become 'profiteers,' who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery.
Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.
 Hotbeaching
Joined: 5/21/2017
Msg: 9
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 3/3/2018 10:33:22 AM
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."

‘Barkis is willin’

This is my more favourite line as I’m just such an old romantic

Billy, you are just a hard faced economist :-) can’t remember how to do those smiley winky things

Shall we go out when the snows gone Roxy.....anyone else up for it ...
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 10
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Posted: 3/4/2018 7:34:57 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_WPk6Rxx00&sns=em
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 11
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Posted: 3/4/2018 10:52:24 AM
First of all if you don't fix the money then global free trade which Mr Mandelson was yacking on about this morning as if he was an honest to god fella, creates winners and losers. Trade at its most basic should be a win-win Peter.

America had 66% of the world's official gold at the end of world war two So of course they made the rules at Bretton woods, New Hampshire. The dollar was as good as gold so it would be the world's reserve currency. As we know now they officially reneged on that in August 1971 but unofficially bankruptcy came as early as 1960 with the inception of the London gold pool that collapsed in 1968.

Anyway I'm not going to go on about the day of the triffin again.Please just to maintain the fledgling popularity of this thread if you want to perhaps create some erotic poetry inspired by your last great carnal coupling then please do not stand on ceremony. Maybe you could include endogenous growth in a couplet or so of verse.

Trump's tariffs... I'd love to approve but I can't. This half arse silliness is maybe good for his here today gone tomorrow popularity in the opinion polls but it's not good for America in the short run or long run.

Seems to me that this won't create more jobs for American steelmakers. It just puts prices up for Americans. Making American manufacturing in general pay more for the steel they use in cars etc.. This will increase the competitiveness of foreign importers slinging more Americans out work. Worsening the deficit, cutting growth and throwing American workers on the scrapheap. I'm repeating myself now.

He'll be antagonising guys and gurls who are sending about 600 billion dollars of free stuff each year in exchange for future worthless pieces of paper.Joe six pack doesn't want to get out of bed to make furry dice for his car . He wants to stay in bed and inject afghanistan's most prodigious crop courtesy of the u.s. military. Wake up Donald! It's print or die. ..leave office and blame the next celebrity. My tip is ....Elvis .....what.....
 Hotbeaching
Joined: 5/21/2017
Msg: 12
random very predictable musings....macro economics corner ...
Posted: 3/4/2018 1:53:21 PM
Years ago, when I worked somewhere, one of the women,
well loved and always the butt of everyone’s jokes,
was regailing us with tales of how lovely her hols had been and
How beautiful the beach was and how, when one morning they
Went for a stroll how the beach was awash with orgasms,
Much mirth and giggles, love you Rose
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 13
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Posted: 3/5/2018 3:06:38 AM
It's sunny and 8°c.....work if you can call it that is over for the day.

Apparently when the bolsheviks took over production plunged.They nationalise the land and took it off the landed aristocracy. The new bureaucracy were, surprise surprise, more interested in boosting their own wages and power and privileges. They even had their own cemeteries. Right off the bat Lenin had a 5 million dead ,famine. These people never look better before they assume Power. Promised the world. Kerensky never stood a chance.


Melbourne has had a 1500% increase in property prices since 1980. Pretty much in a straight line and no recessions in 25 years. Aussies are fully invested emotionally in the idea that houses prices only ever go up. So sad.

You know bitcoin has got its problems but fiat lovers have some front moaning about its volatility and tenuous future. How about the one unit of fiat that I have going to 10,000 bitcoin next week. Just for two or three days. Oh that's right it wasn't designed that way but designed to extract people's labour. I forgot.

Last week you needed 38 million Venezuelan bolivars to purchase an ounce of gold. This week you're going to need
46.5 million a 22% increase. That's your lovely lying venezulean government's figure. God knows what the black market's or free market's rate is...
 RoxyMoronic
Joined: 6/7/2016
Msg: 14
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Posted: 3/7/2018 2:32:31 AM

Shall we go out when the snows gone Roxy.....anyone else up for it ...

Last time we tried this it was a washout....but I’m a sucker for letdowns so yeh :)


It’s late, I’m tired, just go to sleep.
My poem :)
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 15
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Posted: 3/7/2018 7:01:18 AM

It’s late, I’m tired, just go to sleep.
My poem :)


;)




It’s late, I’m tired, just go to sleep.
My poem :)


It’s late, I’m tired, just go to sleep.

My

It’s late, I’m tired, just go to sleep.
My poem :) :)
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 16
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Posted: 3/10/2018 4:36:20 AM
The u.s. employment figures came out yesterday and on the face of it the 317,000 figure and the 4.1% u3 unemployment rate sound great. Happy days are here again. These central banking central planners really are titans of the world. Unemployment is really 22% by 1980 metrics and that's why Donald Trump is in the white house.

I can't be bothered to wade through all this propaganda just trust me when I say that central banks are selling just one thing. Debt. If they're not tipping credit into the global economy they are withdrawing it. Jawboning about putting it in or talking about taking it out.

It all got started in 1944 at Bretton woods when America pushed the dollar as the global reserve currency on the rest of the world. Yes gold too but as we can see from about 1960 America has been running debts with the rest of the world
every year.

This was never sound or honest money, year after year you reader, if you like, have turned up at my door to hand me all sorts of lovely merchandise in return for an iou that I could barely be bothered to scribble.

If like saddam hussein or Colonel Gaddafi you moaned, you got strung up by America or sodemised with a pipe or something. Remember Dominique strauss-khan getting destroyed for pondering some payment plan. Or his French compatriot Charlie de gaulle president of the fifth ? Republic who demanded payment and just about survived a CIA coup in 1968.

We have a system where global producers have to undersell American producers to get dollars. This is why Donald is in the white house because the smartest globalists in the room are just not that smart.

Of course leaving aside rampant inequality we have never been as rich. There is a lot of wealth about but there is also a lot of claims on it, that is people laying title to it. Finite wealth infinite title or paper contract to it.

Just to be clear one pension say 300 people thinking it's theirs. Kind of like musical chairs. One chicken 300 hungry people.

As an aside I heard a bloke on the radio opining about property rights and south Africa this week. And while I thought he was a little racially insensitive considering what has gone on there I did agree with him. It seems societies can't help themselves. They always have to visit dark places eventually. Even though it was unthinkable a little beforehand.


And for those who say look billy the central planners saved it in 3008 and they'll do it again. I say merely it won't be like 2008 America has less ammunition to throw at it. The fed's funds rate was at 5% last time it all went south. I doubt it will be at 3%. The fed's balance sheet was at 800 billion it's now still over $4 and half trillion. There are limits to confidence even with our dumbed down western societies that are taught to follow the political priests and not the collection plate.

And what of china? Can they go into the massive debt that kept global bankruptcy at bay these last ten years again? Just to let America get free stuff from China? Seems unlikely to me.


They are aiming for a transition from the dollar to the IMF's sdr perhaps with a gold component inside to settle the masses down.But don't worry once our very own favourite politicians (assigned to us for our very own division) are apprised of the coming collapse in living standards they'll be along to keep us confused.


I'm off to Clandon for lunch....it's a lovely Saturday. ..


 Justanotherchap
Joined: 12/4/2013
Msg: 17
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Posted: 3/12/2018 8:02:44 AM
Yoohoo - over here Billy.

I do wonder if the idea of university fees was more to do with making sure everyone is in hock to the banks than anything else. I can#t see the point in half the country having a degree, simply not necessary.

That and the lack of housing and high rents which follow from that, will keep people in debt from cradle to grave (**stards). Next up will be school fees for the privatised education system (double **stards).
 calliopedreams
Joined: 11/21/2017
Msg: 18
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Posted: 3/12/2018 7:44:39 PM
With few exceptions, all shoes in the US are imported from China.

They plan to cut us off and invade/conquer when we are barefoot!
 Justanotherchap
Joined: 12/4/2013
Msg: 19
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Posted: 3/14/2018 8:06:56 AM
I don't believe you.


So Toy'r'us don the tubes. Claires as well, never heard of them but apparently they have 400 stores. Maplins on rocky ground too.

Our kitchen sales are well down. My friend who translates my designs into factory orders is having a breakdown I think. He's reporting that Wyevale are way down, not that they do kitchens, but locally the industry is knackered.

So much for Hammonds recovery.
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
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Posted: 3/14/2018 11:04:04 AM
People are only coming on this thread because we are getting to the goal bit. I can't believe Maplins are in trouble it's a lovely shop I need to get in there and study their produce. I'm sure there is going to be regret if I don't.

As vlad said in another place Vlad is well loved in his country.Is Angela, Theresa, Donald (I had a****r spanniel called Donald ) or Emmanuel loved. Nope. Not all is perfect but I think after the fall of communism the average life expectancy of a Russian male fell to 45 or something. Russia had its trousers around its ankles under Boris and the West was
......

Bespectacled Putin has gone in there and done a job on the country. It's nuts but he seems to be actually concerned about his country. Twenty five years ago only one country mattered. That's right the ewe s a...the uk was a colonial outpost for this imperium as was Japan and Germany. And the EU, built at the behest of the CIA. We the 52% shoved it up them.

Now three countries matter uncle sam..China and Vlad's Russia.Now I admit I don't dwell too much on this sort of stuff but I don't know if Putin was involved in the Salisbury incident. Why would he do that ? Why would Basher ? Assad release chemical weapons when he was winning? .

The dollar is the world's reserve currency. I think 80% of the world's trade today is settled in this shit. We don't have a neutral reserve..settlement currency because America doesn't like it.Independent China and Russia are throughly annoyed with this state of affairs because America's greatest export is that piece of paper the federal reserve note aka the dollar.

See it ****s up their economies. Old Xi Jinping has now shored up his power by becoming a lifetime dictator, because America steals from a lot of countries. They also export their inflation around the world, meaning they often crush these countries' living standards inducing recessions. See Brazil.

I think it was instructive in 2012 when America announced it was going to QE (or print) to infinity. The Chinese showed up in london the next day looking for gold. America turned around immediately and announced it was going to taper their "asset purchases" raise interest rates and shrink their central bank's balance sheet. And slowly this is what is evolving.

Similarly instructive the QE was replaced by their slaves ' central banks. Most prominently the Japanese and the European Central bank.

Syria like Iraq and Libya is America's mess. Putin's victory there over American backed isis is a significant defeat for the dollar. That's why "we" are demonising him. The days of the world subsidising the destruction of their own countries by the dollar and the American military are ending. Deficits do matter.

It isn't even good for working Americans anymore. 45 million are on food stamps. 10 % of walmart's income Comes in a 15 min period each month when their food stamp cards get recharged. That's a soup line. 65,000 Americans died of opioid overdoses in 2017. The propaganda is extreme. Long live Rt.
 Justanotherchap
Joined: 12/4/2013
Msg: 21
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Posted: 3/15/2018 7:44:12 AM
GKN, founded in Wales a hundred years ago, is now being stalked by group of private investors, Melrose. They have an impressive record generating massive profits for themselves but they really do remind me of Slater-Walker back in the 60's who were asset strippers of the first order. GKN is still a British business and supplies parts to Airbus, they employ 10,000 people in this country.

When will governments realise that we can't keep allowing these guys to keep making money for themselves with no thought about the long term necessity of having successful businesses in the UK.

Unilever, founded up north and a leader in looking after employees has just quietly slipped out of the country. Apparently they will still be listed on the UK stock exchange. Great, but now HQ is in Holland, when the job cuts come who will be most expendable - duch or British workers.
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 22
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Posted: 3/16/2018 2:53:55 PM
Yes I think I said before that average house price in London fell 3% last year. This year they are falling at the fastest rate since the last recession. Which started ten years ago. It's been a lengthy expansion. House prices have been softening for two years and could just as well strengthen in the coming months. It depends on confidence and credit creation especially credit creation.

Ten years ago America (global workers) bailed out the world at a cost of $16 trillion dollars. But the weak growth that there is has come from the Chinese economy who has propped up the global economy by going massively into debt. It's off the scale. There is no surprise but this Chinese credit creation has stimulated the global economy and now that it is slowing it's no surprise that the u.k. is in slow down mode. Yes even with the base rate under 1%.

America is raising interest rates and selling their central bank's balance sheet which is on autopilot and will be increased in October when America will be borrowing more money for entitlements and most risibly tax cuts. They are also aiming to raise the fed funds rate 4 times with the first one due next week. If this all happens hundreds and thousands of British workers will be made unemployed. Look for America to turn back, QE to restart and global chaos to ensue. They really need a war with Kim to obscure this. Maybe they can pay him to take a dive.

Deutschbank lost €735 million euros in 2017. In the fourth quarter the lost was €2.42 billion. You heard right.
This is the third year of loses in a row. Bonuses quadrupled in 2017 to €2.3 billion.
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 23
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Posted: 3/24/2018 8:08:24 AM
Deutsche bank's inexorable slide into history continues
its share price down 28% this year and it's credit default
swaps up 33 basis points this week. All the banks are
connected and all are insolvent. And if any get bailed in
or out it's only by a sovereign entity that's connected itself
to other sovereign-socialist entities that are themselves insolvent.
All hidden by the printing press for now.

The libor/ ois spread which went from .01% in 2007-08
out to 3.65 % is beginning to blow out again . Three month
Libor went to 2.27% on Wednesday in front of central
bank three month paper.

Now that China has closed the spigot after the 19th
Congress late last year. And the U.S.A. is leading the
charge of the credit tightening around the world things
are beginning to slow down around the world. And
financial markets are catching a chill. Remember inflate
or die.

The Petrol yuan contract is starting Monday with the option
for payment in physical gold. This is the sort of latitude of freedom
that a truly sovereign country or people should have.
It's the freedom that got Hussein and Gaddafi killed. But not
Xi Jinping or Vladimir Putin. I see gold at 10,000 at one point.
 acrosstheplains
Joined: 8/1/2017
Msg: 24
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Posted: 3/27/2018 2:07:53 PM
Well, you can tell by the way I use my walk,
I'm a penguin on a mission,
It's gonna be a magic iceflo ride
To another world
Time and tide is on my side, it stands forever

Whether it's wrong or right
I've just got to get a message to you, hold on, hold on.
But the morning when I woke up
I looked at the skies, running my hands over my eyes
Nothing in life is the same
We do nothing but compete
There's no life on earth
it's all in the stars

Feel the city breaking
In a complicated world
Maybe half the things we sought were never there
so misunderstood, yeah
Tried to hitch a ride to San Francisco
It's much harder to come by

If ever you got rain in your heart
Simply open up our eyes and break it down to size
You should be dancing, yeah
A certain kind of light
Goes right on till the dawn
 billybonds
Joined: 8/8/2014
Msg: 25
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Posted: 3/30/2018 7:12:00 AM
Just reading that president Maduro, the former bus driver, has brought the official Bolivar rate (the dipro?) and the dicom ?? together . Economists (several floors beneath climate "scientists" in my house) have welcomed the move. But want to see how it works before commenting further.

Apparently an election is due and the idea is to stamp out the corruption and arbitrage this side of it . And after of course. The opposition are in the Dominican Republic at the moment but talks are on going to see if they would come back for it.

It doest help that we (America...banks) have got sanctions on them. The interest really needs to be paid you see . The principal is fine as it was invented out of nothing. But these Venezuelans must continue paying interest.

You see with the government having two rates there was an arbitrage . Some people with access to the official rate ...let's call them "former bus drivers"... could purchase dollars at the official rate "cheaply" and sell at the more expensive rate and make a great profit. But not at the moment. There's an election.

In the past five years Venezuelans have seen 33% of their economy disappear. It's expected to contact 15% in 2018.
They do have money in the form of the world's biggest oil reserves. But as chap says you can't eat oil. Lousy money
Presently unlike the dollar which of course is lousy future money.

The venezulean currency, the Bolivar fuerte , fuerte meaning strong , took over from the original bolivar in 2008 at a rate of 1000 for the old in exchange for one new fuerte. Alas since then, things haven't got better as you need thousands now to get a dollar and it's going up thousands every week.

Aren't you grateful we have the pound sterling. Sterling means genuine. We may not have a world class farming and manufacturing base to underpin our genuine piece of Paper but we do have estate agents and lawyers and
governmental invented pen pushers. We also have world class printers.. bankers... sorry who print paper and charge the poor,or soon to be poor, people interest on it.

Of course we build this great infrastructure around it so people don't laugh. Newspapers, TV, a welfare state, a housing ponzi scheme, a legal system for one or two troublemakers. And just in case the fear that they induced through all this doesn't work, a whacking big military and intelligence complex to enforce it all.

Globalism helps maintains this game. As erstwhile free people feel or know that they no longer matter if they ever did. I don't know about Trump. But Vladimir Putin is not a globalist. When there was yet another shortage of dollars in 2015 and the rouble went down and the Russian economy went into recession Putin raised interest rates and dipped into Russia's reserves or her savings but he didn't sell her gold. In fact he bought more gold. People noticed.

To buy gold in "our" world is to be mocked by polite and so called sophisticated society. I wonder if sophisticated and sophistry are connected ..I must find out. Still Polite society is really the government transmitting their message though us.

If government cared about us we would be a nation of savers. If you don't save, you can't take tomorrow off. You can't be ill. You can't retire or take it easier. These are the facts of life. Socialism is a form of manipulation for those in power. Are we saving ? If the answer is no , then they are not interested in you or your loved ones.

In 2020 American interest on just their government debt will over 21% of their tax revenues. Does this seem like a system that will allow for its people to take a breather. Or a society that is on the verge of breakdown.

Leaving aside Canada (who has zero). Governments around the world are increasing the reserves on their central bank balance sheets. Reserves are savings and they are saving in gold. That sorts their future how about you sorting yours. Quietly though as we wouldn't want the price to go much higher yet.
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