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 IslandDreams56
Joined: 7/5/2006
Msg: 1
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A New Cold War?Page 1 of 2    (1, 2)
I really hope I'm just paranoid, but....does anyone else see the undeclared
Cold War happening again?
We lived under the shadow of the bomb for many years.

Now we have a third variable, China.
Between the pressures applied by Putin (Man of the Year?)
and the economic and diplomatic pressures being exerted by China...
The US financial and foreign policy is tiptoe on the tight-wire right now.
I worry about that. Our dreams may be in orbit with a falling star.
I don't see any action here, but a war by economic means.

What should be our course?
 james home
Joined: 4/12/2007
Msg: 2
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History
A New Cold War?
Posted: 12/22/2007 8:16:38 AM
kalamazooger;
I agree with what you are saying. A frightened population gathers around it's leadership, in unity, with a shared sense of purpose. Does anyone have any ideas for countering these dangerous games played by politicians?

One hope, I think, is to reinforce business connections, so that good relationships between countries have the effect of benefitting trade and economies. If it is in industries' interests to share good relationships then governments will listen.

Another approach could be to increase cultural ties through communication e.g. via the internet, tourism etc.
 martsie
Joined: 10/7/2007
Msg: 3
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History
A New Cold War?
Posted: 12/22/2007 5:17:23 PM
Cold War as in what? Military means? I doubt it... China is quite heavily entwined with the US economy, and i doubt they are looking for any kind of fight in the near future...in the long term(10-20 years) that could be a possibility...1.4 billion pairs of legs is a scary scenario if well equipped and ready.
Russia on other hand is getting a lotta petro dollars, but by and large many russians still at oir below poverty line. I was in Moscow 2 years ago, very nice and modern, but 4 hours to the east where i visited is like you were back in 1958 almost.
Russian population is also shrinking which is a major prob for gov't. Militarily wise their "invasion" days are over into other states, for now perhaps unless demographic situation changes.
 james home
Joined: 4/12/2007
Msg: 4
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History
A New Cold War?
Posted: 12/22/2007 5:38:42 PM

war is now (for all intents and purposes) quite inefficient to the real end game of control. The new face of war is an economic one


Yes, the US discovered this too - eventually. The Vietnam war didn't succed, but decades later the Vietnamese have somehow come to accept trade with the US and permitted its accompanying cultural imperialism.
 IslandDreams56
Joined: 7/5/2006
Msg: 5
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History
A New Cold War?
Posted: 12/23/2007 11:57:07 PM
Perhaps some posters here have missed the point. msg. 13, and 17....surprised
really.

__________________________________

Article by G. John Ikenberry
Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University.



The rise of China will undoubtedly be one of the great dramas of the twenty-first century. China's extraordinary economic growth and active diplomacy are already transforming East Asia, and future decades will see even greater increases in Chinese power and influence. But exactly how this drama will play out is an open question. Will China overthrow the existing order or become a part of it? And what, if anything, can the United States do to maintain its position as China rises?

Some observers believe that the American era is coming to an end, as the Western-oriented world order is replaced by one increasingly dominated by the East. The historian Niall Ferguson has written that the bloody twentieth century witnessed "the descent of the West" and "a reorientation of the world" toward the East. Realists go on to note that as China gets more powerful and the United States' position erodes, two things are likely to happen: China will try to use its growing influence to reshape the rules and institutions of the international system to better serve its interests, and other states in the system -- especially the declining hegemon -- will start to see China as a growing security threat. The result of these developments, they predict, will be tension, distrust, and conflict, the typical features of a power transition. In this view, the drama of China's rise will feature an increasingly powerful China and a declining United States locked in an epic battle over the rules and leadership of the international system. And as the world's largest country emerges not from within but outside the established post-World War II international order, it is a drama that will end with the grand ascendance of China and the onset of an Asian-centered world order.

That course, however, is not inevitable. The rise of China does not have to trigger a wrenching hegemonic transition. The U.S.-Chinese power transition can be very different from those of the past because China faces an international order that is fundamentally different from those that past rising states confronted. China does not just face the United States; it faces a Western-centered system that is open, integrated, and rule-based, with wide and deep political foundations. The nuclear revolution, meanwhile, has made war among great powers unlikely -- eliminating the major tool that rising powers have used to overturn international systems defended by declining hegemonic states. Today's Western order, in short, is hard to overturn and easy to join.

This unusually durable and expansive order is itself the product of farsighted U.S. leadership. After World War II, the United States did not simply establish itself as the leading world power. It led in the creation of universal institutions that not only invited global membership but also brought democracies and market societies closer together. It built an order that facilitated the participation and integration of both established great powers and newly independent states. (It is often forgotten that this postwar order was designed in large part to reintegrate the defeated Axis states and the beleaguered Allied states into a unified international system.) Today, China can gain full access to and thrive within this system. And if it does, China will rise, but the Western order -- if managed properly -- will live on.

As it faces an ascendant China, the United States should remember that its leadership of the Western order allows it to shape the environment in which China will make critical strategic choices. If it wants to preserve this leadership, Washington must work to strengthen the rules and institutions that underpin that order -- making it even easier to join and harder to overturn. U.S. grand strategy should be built around the motto "The road to the East runs through the West." It must sink the roots of this order as deeply as possible, giving China greater incentives for integration than for opposition and increasing the chances that the system will survive even after U.S. relative power has declined.

The United States' "unipolar moment" will inevitably end. If the defining struggle of the twenty-first century is between China and the United States, China will have the advantage. If the defining struggle is between China and a revived Western system, the West will triumph.


TRANSITIONAL ANXIETIES

China is well on its way to becoming a formidable global power. The size of its economy has quadrupled since the launch of market reforms in the late 1970s and, by some estimates, will double again over the next decade. It has become one of the world's major manufacturing centers and consumes roughly a third of the global supply of iron, steel, and coal. It has accumulated massive foreign reserves, worth more than $1 trillion at the end of 2006. China's military spending has increased at an inflation-adjusted rate of over 18 percent a year, and its diplomacy has extended its reach not just in Asia but also in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Indeed, whereas the Soviet Union rivaled the United States as a military competitor only, China is emerging as both a military and an economic rival -- heralding a profound shift in the distribution of global power.

Power transitions are a recurring problem in international relations. As scholars such as Paul Kennedy and Robert Gilpin have described it, world politics has been marked by a succession of powerful states rising up to organize the international system. A powerful state can create and enforce the rules and institutions of a stable global order in which to pursue its interests and security. But nothing lasts forever: long-term changes in the distribution of power give rise to new challenger states, who set off a struggle over the terms of that international order. Rising states want to translate their newly acquired power into greater authority in the global system -- to reshape the rules and institutions in accordance with their own interests. Declining states, in turn, fear their loss of control and worry about the security implications of their weakened position.
___________________________________________

The words spoken in that article are not mine but express my views completely.
If people want to hide their heads in the sand, that is the choice they will have
to live with.

Learn a Mandarin dialect, it may come in handy.
 IslandDreams56
Joined: 7/5/2006
Msg: 6
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History
A New Cold War?
Posted: 3/5/2008 1:29:42 AM
Dang....I hate being right about these things..
Almost as much as I hate lying next to a cornered wildcat.
One of those flailing claws can catch, and tear.
Wish us luck....
 gtomustang
Joined: 6/16/2007
Msg: 7
A New Cold War?
Posted: 3/5/2008 5:58:30 AM
If China has enough of a military defense to make any incursion into its neighborhood costly (the Swiss defense idea), and yet it lives in a popular neighborhood (Asian markets), then it has a cat-bird-seat position. If it oozes into places like Africa using money as its medium (as opposed to us sending the Commander in Chief there to sell weapon systems), then it could spread influence around the globe without needing the big military buildup we have.

China, ironically, was always part of the Cold War. It was our way to distract the Soviets, by creating a "second front". So, can a world "war" be waged with three different superpowers? Is it safer than only two, b/c there is always a struggle for alliance?
 h0ldfast
Joined: 12/19/2006
Msg: 8
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History
A New Cold War?
Posted: 7/5/2008 7:07:10 PM
Clausewitz says that war is an extension of foreign policy. The Chinese can meet their needs at this time with economic influence, and don't want to incur the costs of military buildup and confrontation. When China has achieved a decisive economic, technological and diplomatic advantage, military action may play a greater role in forcing other countries to do what is wants. Some time in the future, we can expect China to start militarily bullying Japan, the United States and Russia, and any other countries that have the resources or markets that it wants. That's the way empires work.


wealth accumulated while doing so is spread relatively fairly across the population

There are plenty of Chinese who do not share the benefit of China's wealth, and there are certainly a small number who have benefited disproportionately. Time will tell if working conditions and wages improve, and if corruption is reined in. Given China's history, it's not a sure thing.
 GOD.IS.A.BULLET
Joined: 6/4/2008
Msg: 9
A New Cold War?
Posted: 7/5/2008 7:13:59 PM
A new cold war would be closely followed by a new revolutionary war , There is no way Americans will put up with any more undeclared illegal occupations of innocent countries , Not only have they killed over 1,200,000 iraqi's so far but they have destroyed the US economy and driven the county into an inflationary depression. Still don't believe it ? go buy something ! These Wars have destroyed everything that used to be considered American and look who's the only ones laughing their way to the bank ? Bush , Cheney , and all their corporate friends who are making billions off of the stupidity of the regular American. Some of us know better but we are very few in number.
 indigo6
Joined: 8/23/2005
Msg: 10
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History
A New Cold War?
Posted: 8/28/2008 9:54:20 AM
Following are Budgets of USA & Russia
USA:
Debt: $9 Trillion
Revenues: $2.568 trillion (2007)
Expenses: $2.731 trillion (2007)

Russia: $140 Billion
Revenues: $341.7 billion(2007)
Expenses: $243.7 billion(2007)

Well who can wage wars & dominate the world?
The one with $9 trillion debt?
or one with $100 billion excess money in its budget?

Another question? $9 Trillion debt exists because several countries saved & saving their earning in US Federal reserves (which gives out very low interest). Suppose they convert them into Euro, or even Rouble? , into Oil bonds what would happen? Where will US Govt suddenly get $9trillion?
 indigo6
Joined: 8/23/2005
Msg: 11
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A New Cold War?
Posted: 8/28/2008 9:55:15 AM
Russia debt $ 140 Billion
 tallskier
Joined: 5/20/2005
Msg: 12
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A New Cold War?
Posted: 8/28/2008 1:35:43 PM

If they had never engaged in trade with any other country except maybe Canada they'd still be in great shape. There's nothing in the way of natural resources they'd need from any other country.


So.. had we remained isolationist from a trade standpoint, we'd not need to import any oil?


Oil consumption should have been moderated to maintain self sufficiency long ago.


Should have? By what means? Gas rationing? Or perhaps you have a better idea?


Their manufacturing sector (and all the jobs lost there) would have remained viable if cheaper foreign goods had remained unavailable.


And we'd be paying more for everything we buy. This is a good thing?
 scorpiomover
Joined: 4/19/2007
Msg: 13
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A New Cold War?
Posted: 8/31/2008 12:18:06 PM
What I see that seems to have changed things is globalisation and the internet. In the UK, customer enquiries are routinely directed to India. Software is now being manufactured in India. So much of our services have been outsourced to India. In addition, it is very common to see "Made in China" on clothes, electronics, and other products. It is rare to see "Made in the UK". So much of our goods have been outsourced to China. However, with the advent of global courier services such as UPS, and the rise of internet shopping sites, you no longer need to buy your goods or services from the UK either. So more and more of UK services, goods, customer enquiries and business trading comes from abroad, particularly from countries like China and India. Effectively, UK people are becoming consumers and importers of these countries, not exporters. As a result, the UK is becoming the proletariat for the "fat cats" of China and India. It isn't quite like this yet, but the growth in this direction, with little or no stoppage, indicates to me that this is almost inevitable.

If the people of the USA are adopting the same policies of buying the cheapest goods and services from the cheapest suppliers, including from the internet, irrespective of where these goods and services are from, and if US businesses also seek to outsource their manufacturing and customer call centres to cheaper countries, such as Mexico, or China, or Malaysia, which I believe they do, then the USA would be following the UK model, and it would only be a matter of time until the USA is at the beck and call of the Chinese, the Russians, the Mexicans, and other foreign countries.

As this trend continues, it becomes harder and harder for UK and US forces to attack these countries. The first thing that gets destroyed in the wars of the last 20 years is the economic infrastructure, making it impossible to continue trading with them. As a result, the UK and USA would no longer be able to get goods and services for years that they would be completely reliant on, and would necessarily cause such a lack of available provisions and services in the UK and USA, to undermine the economy, and to threaten to destroy the country from within. If most of your eggs comes from one goose, you don't kill the goose that feeds you.

So the UK and the USA are in a bind. They cannot back-track on economic globalisation, that is assuring countries with a lower cost of labour to rise to the fore. They cannot afford to attack those countries because then they will not get the goods and services they have become reliant upon. The only option is to demand that the UK and the USA become "self-sufficient". Of course, this will mean much hardship and a severe lowering of our standard of living. But it is the only way to throw off the yoke of dependence on countries like Russia and China. However, such hardship is not likely to win you votes. So no politician wants to suggest self-sufficiency, because he is very unlikely to get elected right now. When the matter becomes more pressing, people will see the need. But by then, we will be far more dependent, and self-sufficiency may be unfeasible without a loss of basic facilities, like hospitals, and electricity, because we will be so dependent, that cutting ourselves off really will make it impossible for the country to function.

We are heading for a massive fall. China knows it. So does Russia. So do most countries. Whatever we do is going to hurt. If we act quickly, we will hurt now, but reap the rewards later. Hardly anyone votes for people who hurt us. So as long as we have a representational democratic system that runs on free enterprise, we are very unlikely to elect politicians who will want to do the sensible thing.
 Dpilot1
Joined: 6/15/2008
Msg: 14
A New Cold War?
Posted: 8/31/2008 6:19:43 PM
Russia is stepping up the pressure. Obama will put a stop to it.
 tallskier
Joined: 5/20/2005
Msg: 15
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A New Cold War?
Posted: 9/1/2008 2:29:13 PM

Russia is stepping up the pressure. Obama will put a stop to it.


Do tell - how?
 eeeo4U
Joined: 6/25/2007
Msg: 16
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A New Cold War?
Posted: 9/2/2008 5:07:31 PM
I'd like to know too...by talking to them?
 indigo6
Joined: 8/23/2005
Msg: 17
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A New Cold War?
Posted: 9/6/2008 11:03:23 AM
United States, Canada & Western Europe have huge strengths. Dont blame India & China all economic woos on India & China.

Western countries strength lies in Technologies. China may become production house but you find these technologies for producing these goods coming from Germany!!!
United States may have huge debts, Its assets are serveral Ventural Capital, stockbroking firm which are behind several outsourcing companies.

US economic woos started with Bush (when debt started increasing sue budgetary deficit).
One reason why it happened is Tax cuts to the Rich!!!! What we are facing is similar to that happened due 1930 Depression.

In 1930 Depression, World is manufacturing more than it can consume. It was making lots of washing machines, consumer goods etc etc. But more than half of middle class could not effort them. Therefore Factories closed down. Social security, govt spendings of Education, Health, better labour laws brought the world out of depression then.

Bush tax cuts probabilly, benefited the Rich corporates in US. They had more money than they could spend (even if they spend, say a luxurious holliday how much employment will it create?). Finance companies had more cash than they could give out, where as Government was spending less on Social security, education, health care (which are huge employment creators)etc.

I dont see this happening even now.
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